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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 15th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-16 01:54:09

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Boston – 4:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Boston
nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino bostonmlb Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-170 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.324 30.2% 7.1% 22.8% 46.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.256 0.253 26.0% 2.5% 30.7% 52.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.285 30.1% 6.8% 27.6% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.281 31.7% 5.2% 29.1% 37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $10,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 17 3.25 3.54 28.4% 6.2% 52.4% 30.7% 20.0%

Welcome to the Saturday MLB Grind Down. As a special post All-Star break treat, the MLB has given us 15 games that mostly start at 7:05 or later. There is a catch though, you have to play the 4:05 all-day slate (or the two-game afternoon) if you are hoping to pitch Chris Sale. You can make that sacrifice if you want, but mostly we’re working with a 13-game evening slate. That said, we have a lot to cover so let’s get to work.

Luis Severino leads us off today against the aforementioned Chris Sale. Severino will take on a Yankees offense that checks in at 18.8% K rate, .322 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching. Severino has been pitching like an ace this season with a 3.54 ERA, 28.4% K rate and 6.2% BB rate. He’s generating an elite amount of ground balls at 52.4%

Quick Breakdown: The main issue here is the matchup. Thankfully, MLB made this decision easy for us. Severino isn’t on the 13-game Main Slate. He’s a pretty mediocre option on the early slate too though I’ll personally be avoiding.

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $13,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 18 2.53 2.75 35.9% 4.4% 36.3% 29.1% 17.1%

From a baseball perspective, Chris Sale against the Yankees should be fun to watch. From a DFS perspective, it’s hard to say what will happen here. Sale owns a 2.75 ERA, 35.9% K rate and 4.4% BB rate. He’ll take on a Yankees offense that 23.3% K rate, .310 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against LH pitching. The saving grace for Sale here is that this Yankees offense is much better against RH than LH pitching. That said, he’s still got a pretty difficult matchup.

Quick Breakdown: As great of a pitcher as Sale is, I wouldn’t necessarily recommend him on the all-day slate. He is the best option going on the afternoon slate but you probably can’t afford him there.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees vs. any LH pitcher are a tough sell. Against Chris Sale, it’s even harder to get excited. The Yankees have the lowest implied team total of any team on the slate. There’s pretty much no one here that I would even consider on a full slate. Aaron Judge would be the best option with his .450 wOBA vs. LH but you aren’t getting him at any kind of discount. Outside of a contrarian Yankees stack, it’s best to avoid this situation.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.274 0.272 0.098 24.2% 8.6% 19.1% 51.6% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.322 0.406 0.274 43.8% 15.0% 28.3% 40.6% C $2,800 C $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.450 0.451 0.342 46.5% 23.7% 30.9% 32.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.347 0.364 0.250 44.5% 11.6% 20.0% 45.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.267 0.258 0.078 23.8% 5.8% 17.8% 46.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.274 0.290 0.085 27.4% 6.7% 18.7% 45.2% 3B $2,600 3B $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.342 0.286 0.125 21.7% 3.1% 10.2% 39.7% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.269 0.290 0.142 31.2% 5.6% 18.8% 48.6% C $2,100 C $2,400 N/A N/A
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.286 0.274 0.028 24.2% 10.0% 12.5% 58.1% 2B $2,400 3B/SS $3,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Judge

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston

The Red Sox have a similar out vs. Luis Severino. He does own a .311 wOBA vs. Rh and .309 vs. LH hitting over the past two seasons though. He’s a high ground ball pitcher though at 52.4%. We mostly want Red Sox bats that can avoid ground balls here. Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi would be your best options here. That said, I envision this being a pretty ow scoring game overall.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.376 0.336 0.210 34.6% 8.1% 10.3% 41.8% OF $4,300 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.348 0.325 0.122 31.3% 7.9% 9.9% 50.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 N/A N/A
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.344 0.293 0.150 30.7% 7.4% 17.6% 47.3% SS $3,300 SS $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.319 0.366 0.197 39.2% 8.9% 22.6% 39.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.339 0.345 0.180 36.7% 9.2% 19.4% 47.6% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.363 0.345 0.201 38.7% 10.2% 15.3% 34.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.364 0.366 0.238 38.5% 10.8% 21.1% 44.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.256 0.251 0.065 27.1% 3.7% 22.1% 56.3% C $2,300 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Tzu-Wei Lin LEFT 0.361 0.205 0.057 34.6% 16.7% 21.4% 40.0% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Toronto at Detroit – 6:10 PM ET

Toronto Detroit
torontomlb Francisco Liriano detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-136 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.296 31.0% 7.4% 24.0% 58.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.305 31.1% 7.0% 18.8% 48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.333 34.8% 12.6% 21.6% 47.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.284 27.8% 5.1% 19.9% 50.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Francisco Liriano
francisco-liriano-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.38 4.69 23.0% 11.6% 52.0% 34.8% 19.4%
2017 14 4.95 5.56 20.1% 11.3% 44.9% 32.4% 14.8%

The second and final game of the afternoon slate features Francisco Liriano and Michael Fulmer. This is probably where you are looking for hitting if playing this slate. Liriano owns a 5.56 ERA, 20.1% K rate and 11.3% BB rate on the season. He’s been a ground ball pitcher throughout his career but he’s struggled with that this year at just 44.9%. He’s allowing a .317 wOBA vs. LH and .350 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He’ll take on a Tigers offense that checks in at 20% K rate, .338 wOBA and 110 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Liriano can safely be avoided in all formats today.

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $9,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.03 3.06 20.4% 6.5% 49.1% 30.4% 19.2%
2017 17 4.31 3.19 18.0% 5.6% 49.3% 28.3% 17.5%

Michael Fulmer is a bit overpriced based on his ability to seemingly get the job done in any matchup. He owns a 3.19 ERA, 18% K rate and 5.6% BB rate through 17 starts. We usually wouldn’t pay $9K or more for that skill set. Fulmer owns a .273 wOBA vs. LH and .283 vs. RH pitching over the last two seasons. He’s making things work with a low BB rate and a high ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Even on the early slate, I probably couldn’t pay this price for Fulmer in a tough matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays aren’t on the main slate so we’re really only considering them here for the afternoon slate. That are a couple of options that could work out against Fulmer. Russell Martin is surprisingly cheap on FD at $2,700. He’s probably the best option here with a .338 wOBA vs. LH. Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson are also in consideration if you have the salary to spend.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.356 0.362 0.206 37.6% 15.9% 21.9% 36.7% OF $3,600 OF $3,100 N/A N/A
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.338 0.327 0.173 30.2% 12.7% 25.5% 48.6% C $2,700 C $3,700 N/A N/A
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.398 0.394 0.263 40.2% 14.8% 19.3% 39.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.345 0.370 0.241 39.9% 10.8% 29.7% 30.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.308 0.385 0.193 40.8% 7.8% 20.8% 48.2% 1B $3,200 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.328 0.344 0.188 33.9% 7.3% 17.3% 41.8% SS $2,800 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.336 0.342 0.150 30.5% 9.1% 17.9% 45.9% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 N/A N/A
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.287 0.294 0.115 26.7% 5.1% 15.3% 47.2% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.260 0.272 0.142 29.4% 7.1% 20.9% 47.5% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Detroit

The Tigers are the chalk afternoon stack against Francisco Liriano. There’s all kinds of power here against a high walk pitcher that is prone to mistakes from time to time. My favorite sneaky play here is Nick Castellanos who owns a .363 xwOBA against LH pitching. Alex Presley is also a key cog in making early lineups work (assuming he’s in the lineup). Beyond that, fire up the usual Detroit bats n Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler and Alex Avila.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.362 0.336 0.216 37.4% 9.1% 16.5% 25.1% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Alex Avila LEFT 0.323 0.311 0.091 15.0% 16.7% 31.0% 55.0% C $2,700 1B/C $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.335 0.338 0.197 38.6% 8.3% 26.9% 38.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.386 0.449 0.192 46.7% 15.0% 21.3% 40.8% 1B $3,800 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.433 0.431 0.297 46.3% 8.7% 19.8% 39.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.339 0.316 0.137 33.5% 7.7% 14.0% 44.5% 1B $3,000 1B $3,200 N/A N/A
7 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.296 0.363 0.227 42.0% 6.0% 24.6% 36.2% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.298 0.309 0.172 39.6% 1.5% 20.6% 37.6% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.295 0.294 0.130 28.0% 5.0% 7.0% 40.6% SS $2,300 SS $2,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera and Alex Presley

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Baltimore
cubsmlb Jake Arrieta baltimoremlb Wade Miley
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-124 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.327 29.5% 12.4% 24.1% 48.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.317 35.3% 9.4% 20.3% 57.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.273 24.4% 6.1% 23.4% 51.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.365 0.353 32.9% 8.8% 19.1% 47.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jake Arrieta
jake-arrieta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 31 3.94 3.10 23.9% 9.6% 52.6% 25.2% 22.9%
2017 18 4.07 4.35 23.5% 8.1% 45.7% 29.2% 21.7%

The main slate kicks off with the Cubs and Orioles. Jake Arrieta owns a 4.35 ERA, 23.5% K rate and 8.1% BB rate in 18 starts this season. Arrieta had a bounce-back start against the Reds two starts ago but then got pounded by the Pirates last time out. He’s been a highly inconsistent option all season. He’ll take on an Orioles offense that owns a 22.6% K rate, .317 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While the price is tempting on DK, I’ll probably stay away. Everywhere else Arrieta is an easy avoid in all formats.

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 18 4.91 4.97 19.4% 12.4% 53.2% 33.2% 19.3%

Wade Miley owns a 4.97 ERA, 19.4% K rate and 12.4% BB rate through 18 starts. The main things Miley does well is generate ground balls at 53.2%. Miley has some pretty drastic splits with a .284 wOBA allowed vs. LH and .365 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. Miley will take on a Cubs offense that owns a 20.7% K rate, .338 wOBA and 107 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While the Cubs offense has been pretty average against RH pitching this season this isn’t a spot where I would want to attack them. Miley doesn’t have enough upside to justify the risk here.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

We can fire away with Cubs RH hitting and anyone that hits LH pitching well. Kris Bryant and Wilson Contreras top that list with Bryant owning a .441 wOBA vs. LH pitching. Anthony Rizzo is also in play with as .382 wOBA vs. LH pitching. Even a Cubs stack will be somewhat low-owned on a slate this size. The over/under in this game is plenty high enough to make that worth it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.334 0.311 0.158 31.4% 11.7% 18.4% 54.5% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.441 0.449 0.330 40.4% 17.8% 18.5% 32.7% 3B $3,700 3B $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.382 0.361 0.243 28.0% 10.7% 11.4% 43.9% 1B $4,000 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.352 0.256 0.238 17.2% 4.4% 31.1% 35.7% OF $3,300 2B/OF $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
5 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.273 0.278 0.115 22.6% 18.8% 32.8% 38.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
6 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.364 0.342 0.193 29.8% 8.9% 17.9% 56.3% C $3,200 C $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.271 0.276 0.092 26.0% 9.2% 19.7% 47.7% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 RF $6,300
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.335 0.337 0.210 29.7% 13.1% 23.3% 38.9% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.339 0.306 0.063 25.2% 8.0% 18.5% 58.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 CF $7,200

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant and Wilson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Baltimore

The Orioles are somewhat of a tough sell against Jake Arrieta. He’s a high ground ball pitcher at 45.7% on the season. He is allowing a .300 wOBA vs. LH and .265 vs. Rh hitting. That means you could take a shot on a guy like Seth Smith who owns a .312 wOBA vs. Rh pitching over the last 13 months. There’s no one else that I would want here in anything but the largest of tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.274 0.247 0.093 23.8% 4.5% 23.5% 41.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.356 0.237 35.2% 6.9% 18.7% 38.0% 3B $3,300 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.336 0.196 32.3% 4.9% 16.5% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.345 0.351 0.265 42.8% 13.6% 34.8% 36.1% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.367 0.375 0.257 36.7% 8.5% 23.3% 39.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,800
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.341 0.316 0.203 29.5% 3.3% 20.5% 41.9% 2B $3,100 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.403 0.343 0.247 36.5% 6.3% 26.2% 53.2% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,800
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.302 0.297 0.143 33.7% 6.3% 27.1% 41.9% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.198 0.254 0.038 19.1% 5.6% 20.2% 38.3% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,700 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

St. Louis Pittsburgh
stlouismlb Lance Lynn pittsburghmlb Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-125 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.345 31.5% 12.5% 18.3% 42.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.309 29.3% 7.2% 17.1% 53.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.256 0.281 28.4% 5.6% 25.7% 42.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.278 33.5% 4.3% 24.9% 51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance Lynn
lance-lynn-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 4.46 3.61 22.0% 9.0% 42.1% 29.9% 20.1%

With plenty of expensive pitching on the mound tonight, this game is a decent place to look for a mid-range SP2. Lance Lynn owns a 3.61 ERA, 22% K rate and 9% BB rate through 18 starts this season. Lynn has been elite against RH hitting with a .256 wOBA and 25.7% K rate while pretty mediocre against LH hitting at .349 wOBA 18.7% K rate. The Pirates offense checks in at 18.6% K rate .308 wOBA and 89 wRC+ against RH pitching. They really don’t have many LH bats that scare me here.

Quick Breakdown: Lynn is an excellent choice as an SP2 or tournament pitcher on single-pitcher sites. The Pirates don’t strikeout a lot but they also don’t have much fire power, especially against RH pitching.

Jameson Taillon
jameson-taillon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,000
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 11 4.06 2.73 22.2% 8.3% 52.0% 28.0% 25.3%

Jameson Taillon owns a 2.73 ERA, 22.2% K rate and 8.3% BB rate through 11 starts. He’s also generating an elite amount of ground balls at 52.. Taillon will take on a Cardinals offense that checks in at 21.3 K rate, .324 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against RH pitching. As an added bonus, Taillon owns a 17.9% K rate against LH hitting and 24.9% against RH hitting. The Cardinals generally only feature two LH bats in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is also an excellent SP2 though you’ll have to pay more than you would for Lance Lynn. I prefer Lynn between the two but that’s mostly just because of price.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

I don’t have high hopes for anyone hitting in this game. On a full slate, there isn’t a lot of reasons to target Cardinals bats against Taillon. He’s generating ground balls at 52%. The one bat that I would consider here is Matt Carpenter. He has a .414 xwOBA against RH pitching. The rest of the Cardinals have great numbers against RH pitching I just don’t like their outlook against Taillon.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.380 0.414 0.251 46.6% 16.1% 18.8% 27.0% 2B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
2 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.363 0.351 0.202 31.6% 13.8% 24.1% 36.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 CF $8,100
3 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.326 0.349 0.158 32.1% 8.3% 21.5% 45.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.358 0.339 0.257 34.1% 8.9% 23.7% 42.4% 3B $3,400 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.322 0.332 0.122 32.9% 5.8% 11.9% 47.3% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
6 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.311 0.322 0.232 41.7% 4.7% 31.1% 39.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Luke Voit RIGHT 0.483 0.643 0.370 43.5% 6.7% 13.3% 39.1% 1B $2,800 1B $2,300 1B $4,400
8 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.370 0.304 0.284 38.4% 1.0% 28.8% 31.5% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,500 3B $6,800
9 Mike Leake RIGHT 0.161 0.251 0.033 21.7% 3.0% 27.3% 35.0% P $7,700 P $6,400 P $12,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

If targeting Lance Lynn, you want LH hitters as he owns a .349 wOBA and 12.5% BB rate. The Pirates don’t have much to offer in that regard. Adam Frazier is your best bet here as he owns a .312 wOBA against LH pitching but just a 14.2% K rate. You could also talk me into Josh Bell who owns a .207 ISO vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.312 0.331 0.118 31.7% 8.9% 14.2% 46.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.309 0.292 0.111 28.4% 4.2% 15.2% 42.6% 2B $2,800 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.340 0.342 0.178 35.4% 9.8% 20.2% 36.4% OF $4,200 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.343 0.353 0.207 34.3% 11.9% 17.3% 50.7% 1B $3,200 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.315 0.323 0.125 31.6% 9.4% 25.7% 58.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.329 0.337 0.193 32.6% 8.7% 16.1% 38.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.312 0.325 0.088 28.4% 13.4% 19.4% 52.8% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.123 26.0% 8.6% 14.7% 49.0% SS $2,800 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.153 0.142 0.000 5.3% 1.6% 38.1% 75.9% P $8,700 P $8,500 P $16,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell and Adam Frazier

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Philadelphia at Milwaukee – 7:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Milwaukee
philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola milwaukeemlb Jimmy Nelson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-140 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.310 32.0% 9.8% 21.8% 51.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.327 36.9% 11.0% 21.6% 45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.267 27.0% 3.9% 27.6% 54.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.299 28.3% 7.1% 19.5% 53.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 13 3.84 3.59 24.6% 7.6% 49.3% 30.2% 23.9%

On any other slate, this game would be one of the top targets for pitching as people love to pick on both Philadelphia and Milwaukee. Aaron Nola owns a 3.59 ERA, 24.6% K rate and 7.6% BB rate through 13 starts. He’ll take on a Brewers offense that checks in at 24.8% K rate, .331 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against RH pitching. That’s the third highest K rate in the league against RH pitching. Nola could be in line for a great start here as long as he works his way around the LH bats. He owns a 27.6% K rate against RH hitters over the past two seasons.

Quick Breakdown: On a slate loaded with pitching, Nola makes sense as a high-end SP2 or SP1 in tournaments. There’s plenty of strikeout potential in this Brewers offense.

Jimmy Nelson
jimmy-nelson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,900
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.92 4.62 17.4% 10.7% 49.4% 32.6% 21.3%
2017 18 3.48 3.30 26.1% 6.0% 49.8% 31.5% 20.9%

Jimmy Nelson has been the Brewers ace this season. He owns a 3.3 ERA 26.1% K rate and 6% BB rate through 18 starts. His splits over the last two seasons look bad at .325 wOBA vs. LH and .338 vs. Rh but he’s been much better than that this year. He’s getting an elite amount of ground balls at 49.3%. He gets to take on a Phillies offense that checks in at 23.9% K rate, .309 wOBA and 89 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Nelson would be one of the top cash game options on any other slate. With so much pitching today he’s simply one of many options. He’s cash game viable if you want to go that route and definitely in play for tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are one of just five offenses with an implied team total under four runs on this slate. Unless you are trying to be contrarian, this isn’t where you should be looking for hitting. Daniel Nava is the best option here though I am intrigued by Nick Williams who is dirt cheap on FD. Other than that, there isn’t much to love here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.322 0.297 0.161 34.7% 8.8% 31.0% 44.6% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.305 0.276 0.179 28.4% 5.7% 21.4% 40.1% SS $2,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.347 0.380 0.161 45.8% 5.9% 20.6% 41.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.289 0.315 0.151 28.1% 6.5% 16.0% 46.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.321 0.325 0.206 37.9% 5.4% 22.5% 42.6% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.332 0.307 0.150 29.4% 8.0% 21.2% 42.7% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
7 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.345 0.338 0.158 35.4% 13.5% 27.9% 61.5% C $2,500 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Andres Blanco SWITCH 0.292 0.303 0.128 26.1% 6.8% 19.7% 51.5% 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,100 2B $4,200
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.159 0.115 0.000 12.5% 0.0% 38.5% 60.0% P $7,500 P $8,400 P $16,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Nava and Nick Williams

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Milwaukee

If targeting Aaron Nola, we would ideally want to use LH hitters as Aaron Nola is allowing a .311 wOBA vs. LH hitters. The main LH hitter to watch out for is Eric Thames who owns a .407 wOBA and 43% hard contact rate vs. LH pitching. Jonathan Villar and Travis Shaw are the other two LH hitters that could do damage here. If going for the contrarian Brewers stack, Ryan Braun is also in play as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.325 0.300 0.144 35.5% 10.7% 26.2% 59.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.407 0.351 0.322 43.0% 17.3% 24.2% 38.3% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.339 0.237 34.7% 7.6% 19.5% 54.9% OF $4,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.355 0.341 0.219 36.9% 9.5% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.346 0.333 0.185 35.1% 11.7% 32.0% 46.9% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
6 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.318 0.323 0.178 28.8% 7.8% 15.8% 30.6% C $2,300 C $3,400 C $6,800
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.313 0.297 0.196 36.8% 9.8% 37.5% 42.2% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.290 0.258 0.139 26.1% 4.5% 19.9% 54.8% SS $2,600 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.154 0.152 0.036 10.4% 4.3% 27.1% 69.4% P $7,200 P $7,800 P $15,200

Elite Plays – Eric Thames

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar and Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.