MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 2nd

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2016-07-03 02:48:44

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Cleveland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Zach McAllister will start for Cleveland instead of Trevor Bauer.

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Cleveland					Toronto
			Trevor Bauer					Marco Estrada
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -120					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.303	15	22.5%	10.5%	SP vs. Left	0.274	22	18.9%	8.2%
SP vs. Right	0.303	15	23.0%	9.0%	SP vs. Right	0.259	14	21.2%	8.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Trevor Bauer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$11,400
					FPPG:		28.2	FPPG:		14.9
					Pitcher Rating:		56.1	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	6	108.0	3.53	2.01	25.0%	7.0%	9.4%	52.1%	30.8%	29.1%
2016	12	122.0	3.92	3.19	22.6%	8.1%	9.6%	50.0%	31.7%	33.5%
2015	30	95.6	4.20	4.55	22.9%	10.6%	9.6%	39.2%	40.7%	31.0%

At this point of the day it appears that the Indians will have to go to a bullpen starter after using Bauer for an extended appearance last night. While their pitcher will clearly not be in play, we will have to wait and see as to who they throw out their for the first few innings.

EDIT: McAllister will get the start today after the marathon game last night. He can safely be avoided as he has pitched solely out of the bullpen and has a tough matchup in Rogers Centre today.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marco Estrada
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$9,800
					FPPG:		36.1	FPPG:		20.4
					Pitcher Rating:		54.3	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	5	99.8	4.22	3.58	26.6%	10.2%	12.4%	25.0%	56.3%	39.5%
2016	15	100.9	4.37	2.81	23.5%	10.0%	10.6%	34.8%	49.6%	33.3%
2015	28	104.0	4.64	3.13	18.1%	7.6%	9.9%	32.2%	52.3%	27.4%

This game features two pitchers that can rake up the strikeouts in any matchup as Estrada comes into this game with a 23.5% strikeout rate and a. He has an average 4.38 SIERA, which shows some regression is in order to his low 2.81 ERA. He is way too expensive this afternoon given the park factors and the matchup to give him use in cash game formats. His upside makes him tournament playable, but with risk attached.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Estrada has kept batters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA under .270. The Indians come into this game with the tenth highest projected run total and the fifth highest of the early slate. While they do not have the most ideal matchup, the park puts a good number of Indians into play today.

Indians Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.330 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.4% (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.90 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.38 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.345	0.223	0.382	1B	$4,000	1B	$3,600
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.374	0.177	0.355	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,800
3	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.351	0.161	0.402	SS	$3,600	SS	$3,700
4	Mike Napoli	RIGHT	0.296	0.176	0.335	1B	$3,400	1B	$2,900
5	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.314	0.142	0.332	P	$4,000	3B/OF	$3,300
6	Lonnie Chisenhall	LEFT	0.314	0.152	0.460	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.264	0.175	0.317	C	$2,600	C	$2,500
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.414	0.257	0.632	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,000
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.316	0.149	0.371	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.179	0.398	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana (DK), Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

This Toronto team is a small favorite today in a game with the third highest overall total on the early slate. Toronto has the second highest projected team total at 4.62 runs. While it is tough to look at just McAllister knowing he may only pitch a few innings, we know the front of the lineup will get him once and he has been mashed by righties this year allowing a wOBA of .396 to them on the year. This Toronto team should see a lot of different pitchers today and are in play in all formats and are extremely underpriced at DK.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.333 (5 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (3 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.8% (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.62 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.307	0.102	0.323	OF	$3,300	OF	$2,500
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.378	0.211	0.520	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,100
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.391	0.265	0.510	3B	$4,500	3B	$3,900
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.387	0.278	0.495	1B	$3,900	1B	$3,800
5	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.355	0.206	0.338	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,800
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.308	0.139	0.321	OF	$2,700	OF	$2,500
7	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.332	0.220	0.126	1B	$2,800	1B	$2,600
8	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.313	0.117	0.266	SS	$2,400	2B/SS	$2,000
9	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.308	0.176	0.349	C	$2,500	C	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.342	0.190	0.361	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Ezequiel Carrera, Devon Travis

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Michael Saunders

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Texas at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Texas					Minnesota
			Chi Chi Gonzalez					Tyler Duffey
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -105					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.312	1	9.2%	10.5%	SP vs. Left	0.306	5	24.1%	5.8%
SP vs. Right	0.272	5	11.8%	11.8%	SP vs. Right	0.351	11	16.9%	6.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chi Chi Gonzalez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$4,000
					FPPG:		6.0	FPPG:		-2.0
					Pitcher Rating:		25.2	Pitcher Rank:		30
L30 Days	1	87.0	5.56	9.00	7.7%	7.7%	8.1%	47.6%	23.8%	40.9%
2016	1	87.0	5.56	9.00	7.7%	7.7%	8.1%	47.6%	23.8%	40.9%
2015	10	104.8	5.59	3.90	10.7%	11.4%	6.8%	48.6%	31.1%	28.4%

The man with the name is pitching for the second time this year and his first start went close to expected. He allowed five earned runs on ten hits, while only striking out two in New York. The matchup gets much easier today against a Twins squad that is ranked 22nd and 19th in team wOBA and ISO against righties respectively, but there is no need to use him today in any format.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Duffey
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		23.7	FPPG:		11.3
					Pitcher Rating:		56.7	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	6	91.0	3.89	7.55	19.0%	4.2%	8.4%	45.9%	27.5%	33.0%
2016	12	94.8	3.95	5.59	19.1%	4.7%	8.4%	46.9%	29.0%	32.7%
2015	10	90.8	3.83	3.10	21.9%	8.3%	9.8%	49.7%	30.9%	26.6%

Duffey surprised a lot of daily fantasy players as he cruised through the Yankees lineup, pitching eight innings with eight strikeouts, while only allowing one earned run. Prior to that start, he had allowed at least four earned runs in his previous seven. He does come into this game with a solid SIERA of 3.95 and a strikeout rate of 19.1%. Expecting a repeat performance is tough to do as he has a tough matchup against the Rangers who rank in the top half of the league in both wOBA and ISO against righties and strikeout at the seventh lowest rate. Duffey can be avoided today unless you want to take advantage of his very low salary as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The line has shifted in Texas’ favor from when it opened yesterday, which shows Vegas does not think he will have a repeat stellar start. Duffey has allowed lefties a wOBA of .314 and righties a .374 wOBA, putting the majority of the Rangers in play for the early slate as they have the second highest projected run total of the early slate.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (13 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.9% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.99 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.72 (4 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.384	0.195	0.346	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,100
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.312	0.165	0.502	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.358	0.189	0.264	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.311	0.144	0.368	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,100
5	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.357	0.155	0.408	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,700
6	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.325	0.215	0.341	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,200
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.281	0.079	0.302	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,600
8	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.349	0.220	0.249	OF	$2,400	1B	$3,300
9	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.307	0.195	0.182	C	$2,200	C	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.173	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Ian Desmond

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Minnesota

Minnesota has a solid matchup against Chi Chi who has struggled in his short time in the majors. He has allowed lefties a wOBA of .312 in his career making guys like Joe Mauer and Robbie Grossman in play, while the other big bats up front should be used today as well as the Twins sport the highest projected run total of the early slate.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.306 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.3% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.05 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.78 (3 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.347	0.132	0.344	SS	$3,900	3B/SS	$5,100
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.318	0.114	0.183	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.370	0.248		OF	$3,000	OF	$4,600
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.321	0.197	0.555	2B	$3,300	2B	$5,300
5	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.305	0.177	0.349	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200
6	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.330	0.178	0.232	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,100
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.339	0.222	0.390	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.274	0.082	0.514	C	$2,400	C	$3,600
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.288	0.156	0.156	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100
	Team Averages	—	0.321	0.167	0.340	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					St. Louis
			Jimmy Nelson					Adam Wainwright
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -170					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.357	19	17.5%	11.0%	SP vs. Left	0.309	2	18.8%	5.4%
SP vs. Right	0.277	11	20.0%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.310	6	16.8%	6.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jimmy Nelson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		27.6	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		37.1	Pitcher Rank:		26
L30 Days	5	88.2	6.18	5.87	9.7%	12.3%	4.8%	47.1%	32.9%	37.2%
2016	16	93.3	4.93	3.60	17.2%	10.3%	6.8%	47.3%	32.5%	35.1%
2015	30	93.0	4.09	4.11	19.7%	8.6%	10.0%	50.6%	29.4%	28.9%

Jimmy Nelson sports a high 4.94 SIERA and a low 17.2% strikeout rate after his first 16 starts this season. While he has struggled at times, the more worrisome stat is the fact that he has not pitched passed the sixth inning since May. That could cause trouble as he now has to face a Cardinals offense that is has been one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching (fourth in wOBA and second in ISO). Avoid Nelson this afternoon.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Wainwright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$7,500
					FPPG:		24.4	FPPG:		11.5
					Pitcher Rating:		80.1	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	5	94.6	3.56	3.69	25.4%	7.1%	10.8%	45.8%	27.7%	31.3%
2016	16	93.4	4.43	5.04	17.6%	6.3%	8.1%	42.3%	31.3%	30.5%
2015	4	95.8	3.45	1.61	18.0%	3.6%	7.8%	51.2%	22.6%	21.8%

Just when we thought that Waino was starting to round a corner and get back to form, he has two rough starts in a row finished off by allowing six earned runs to the Royals in his last start. He still has an ERA over 5.00 on the season (4.43 SIERA) and his strikeout rate continues to reach close to career lows (17.6%). The matchup is decent against the Brewers who are around league average against righties, making Wainwright an option as an SP2 today as he should be able to bounce back here today.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The matchup with Wainwright could be a boom or bust option. Vegas thinks bust as the Brewers have a projected team total of just 3.59, which is the second lowest of the early slate. On the year, Waino has allowed a .314+ wOBA from both sides of the plate. They are a tough offense to play in this matchup and I will not be looking much their way unless you want to run a stack assuming Waino struggles again.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.317 (15 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.2% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.10 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.59 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.338	0.118	0.333	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,400
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.308	0.131	0.358	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,700
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.359	0.211	0.497	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,700
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.351	0.168	0.293	C	$3,400	C	$4,000
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.325	0.245	0.347	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,600
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.315	0.183	0.387	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400
7	Aaron Hill	RIGHT	0.316	0.140	0.383	3B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,200
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.260	0.061	0.257	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,500
9	Jimmy Nelson	RIGHT	0.111	0.016	0.000	P	$6,900	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.141	0.317	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun

Stackability – None

St. Louis

The Cardinals are a top offense in the league against right-handed pitching this season. They are heavy favorites and have the fourth highest projected team total on the early slate. Nelson has allowed a wOBA of .328 to lefties and .325 to righties this year, putting the majority of the top half of the lineup in play today.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.346 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.3% (8 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.25 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (9 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.408	0.271	0.516	2B	$4,300	2B/3B	$5,400
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.398	0.233	0.453	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,800
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.354	0.174	0.352	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.338	0.166	0.315	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400
5	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.325	0.122	0.193	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,100
6	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.297	0.091	0.153	C	$2,700	C	$2,600
7	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.345	0.260	0.395	1B	$3,800	1B/OF	$4,600
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.322	0.127	0.297	OF	$2,600	2B/OF	$2,900
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.237	0.263	0.000	P	$8,300	P	$7,500
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.190	0.297	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Kolten Wong (if batting second again), Jhonny Peralta

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox at Houston – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Chicago White Sox					Houston
			Chris Sale					Doug Fister
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -105					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.278	2	32.7%	5.0%	SP vs. Left	0.343	19	13.0%	6.7%
SP vs. Right	0.277	34	29.0%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.308	9	16.9%	5.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chris Sale
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,200	Salary:		$12,700
					FPPG:		44.8	FPPG:		24.7
					Pitcher Rating:		80.2	Pitcher Rank:		5
L30 Days	5	110.6	3.67	3.93	23.4%	5.0%	10.9%	38.4%	34.3%	37.4%
2016	16	107.7	3.57	2.79	24.6%	5.2%	9.9%	40.3%	37.3%	28.8%
2015	31	107.2	2.52	3.41	32.1%	4.9%	14.6%	42.6%	35.3%	25.1%

Chris Sale is the other elite option taking the mound today. Yet, as I said in Fernandez matchup, there are a few reasons Fernandez is the number one option. Sale comes into this game with a SIERA of 3.57, but his strikeout rate continues to be at a career low mark of 24.6%. Add that to the fact that he has a boom or bust matchup against the Astros who have a bunch of power, but also strikeout at a 24.5% clip against righties. You can make the case for Sale this afternoon as he is about 1k cheaper at both main sites than Fernandez, but Jofer seems to be a safer option.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Doug Fister
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$9,200
					FPPG:		30.3	FPPG:		15.1
					Pitcher Rating:		51.6	Pitcher Rank:		20
L30 Days	5	101.0	4.16	2.45	18.8%	4.5%	7.1%	45.9%	41.8%	30.0%
2016	15	98.1	4.67	3.36	15.8%	7.3%	5.8%	48.4%	32.9%	29.8%
2015	15	110.3	4.47	4.19	14.0%	5.4%	5.2%	44.6%	34.1%	29.5%

Fister has actually turned his season around a bit lately as he has dropped his ERA to a solid 3.36 over the last month and a half or so and now is a slight favorite against Sale today. Yet, his advanced statistics left a bit to be desired as he has a SIERA of 4.67 and a very low strikeout rate of 15.8%. I can see using him as an SP2 today, but I don’t love it.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Fister has had a bit of resurgence, but he has allowed lefties to hit him hard this year as he has allowed them a wOBA of .373 on the season. The White Sox have some decent options, but have a low projected team total of under 4.00. Temper your expectations against Fister today.

White Sox Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.153 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.1% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.17 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.97 (19 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.368	0.236	0.326	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,500
2	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.350	0.163	0.330	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.362	0.217	0.349	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,400
4	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.327	0.218	0.300	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,900
5	Dioner Navarro	SWITCH	0.276	0.115	0.348	C	$3,000	C	$2,500
6	Brett Lawrie	RIGHT	0.297	0.148	0.407	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600
7	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.291	0.108	0.245	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700
8	J.B. Shuck	LEFT	0.285	0.099	0.255	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,700
9	Tyler Saladino	RIGHT	0.278	0.134	0.399	SS	$3,000	3B/SS	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.160	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton

Stackability – None

Houston

Houston actually comes into this game as slight favorites, yet it becomes very difficult to pay their salaries against Sale today. They have a projected team total of 4.03, which is an average total for the afternoon slate. Sale has kept batters to a wOBA of under .270 from both sides of the plate making the Astros deep tournament plays only.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.315 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (13 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.5% (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.53 (14 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.03 (16 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.389	0.225	0.346	OF	$4,500	OF	$3,800
2	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.357	0.205	0.370	1B	$3,500	1B/3B	$3,200
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.417	0.176	0.494	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,200
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.345	0.213	0.491	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,100
5	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.305	0.129	0.355	OF	$3,800	OF	$2,600
6	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.305	0.212	0.388	C	$2,900	C	$2,900
7	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.289	0.169	0.466	3B	$3,100	3B	$2,600
8	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.282	0.196	0.267	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,200
9	Danny Worth	RIGHT	0.303	0.143	0.198	3B	$2,200	2B/SS	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.332	0.185	0.375	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – None

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Detroit					Tampa Bay
			Justin Verlander					Blake Snell
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -125					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.277	13	23.1%	6.6%	SP vs. Left	0.339	0	20.0%	17.1%
SP vs. Right	0.301	16	22.7%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.314	0	14.8%	8.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Justin Verlander
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		35.6	FPPG:		19.2
					Pitcher Rating:		77.6	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	101.2	3.90	4.73	22.4%	4.5%	10.1%	35.1%	48.9%	28.1%
2016	16	106.1	3.76	4.30	25.2%	6.6%	11.3%	34.4%	46.8%	28.7%
2015	20	107.5	3.95	3.37	21.1%	6.0%	10.0%	34.6%	45.5%	23.0%

Verlander had been solid this season prior to getting lit up last Sunday for eight earned runs in just 4.2 innings. He comes into this game with a 3.77 SIERA, while posting a four percent increase in his strikeout rate from last year (25.2%). He gets a solid matchup against the Rays who rank 24th in team wOBA against righties, while having a high ISO and striking out at the second highest clip. Verlander is in a good spot, but looks a bit too expensive on DK, but the price could be right at FD where he is over $2000 cheaper.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Blake Snell
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,200
					FPPG:		24.3	FPPG:		11.0
					Pitcher Rating:		38.7	Pitcher Rank:		25
L30 Days	3	99.7	5.72	4.11	13.0%	13.0%	4.7%	46.3%	24.1%	22.8%
2016	4	97.3	5.18	3.54	16.7%	11.5%	5.1%	42.4%	30.3%	26.1%

Snell has now made four starts in his early career and had a solid 3.54 ERA to show for it. With that said, he has allowed too many base runners (11.5% walk rate) and has had a bit of luck on his side as his SIERA sits at 5.19. He has also not struck people out even close to his minor league numbers so far. He has a tough matchup against some mashing right-handed bats in this Tigers lineup that is ranked tenth and eighth in team wOBA and ISO against lefties respectively. He can be seen as a cheap tournament option if he can put his skill set together, but with maybe too much risk today.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers have a decent team total of 4.15 against Snell today who has allowed righties to a wOBA of .314 in his short career. Miguel Cabrera is always in play against lefties, while Victor Martinez is a great tournament option as well.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.330 (10 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.176 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 21.1% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (9 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.15 (14 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.370	0.171	0.227	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,000
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.353	0.134	0.339	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.353	0.175	0.412	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,500
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.385	0.158	0.369	C	$3,700	1B	$3,800
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.376	0.242	0.388	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,200
6	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.274	0.137	0.323	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,700
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.376	0.250	0.308	C	$2,400	C	$2,900
8	Mike Aviles	RIGHT	0.281	0.088	0.232	2B	$2,100	2B/OF	$2,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.347	0.126	0.304	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,100
	Team Averages	—	0.346	0.165	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Ian KInsler

Stackability – None

Tampa Bay

Tampa is always a solid source of value against left-handed pitching, but goes back to an average offense against righties as evidenced by being shut down last night to Fulmer. They have a projected run total of just 3.85 against Verlander today and should only be used as a source of value high up in the lineup.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.181 (7 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 25.1% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.08 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.85 (22 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.325	0.113	0.335	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,400
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.339	0.193	0.421	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,600
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.320	0.186	0.322	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,500
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.316	0.180	0.271	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,200
5	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.302	0.130	0.815	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,200
6	Desmond Jennings	RIGHT	0.292	0.139	0.331	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900
7	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.350	0.280	0.245	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,000
8	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.308	0.183	0.484	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300
9	Hank Conger	SWITCH	0.328	0.195	0.301	C	$2,200	C	$2,400
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.178	0.392	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 2nd

Cleveland at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana (DK), Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Mike Napoli, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Ezequiel Carrera, Devon Travis

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Michael Saunders

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Texas at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Ian Desmond

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre, Prince Fielder, Rougned Odor

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Joe Mauer

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Eduardo Nunez, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 2:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun

Stackability – None

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Matt Holliday, Brandon Moss

Secondary Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Kolten Wong (if batting second again), Jhonny Peralta

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Chicago White Sox at Houston – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton

Stackability – None

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – None

Detroit at Tampa Bay – 4:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin, Ian KInsler

Stackability – None

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brad Miller, Logan Morrison

Stackability –

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