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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 3rd

by Ryan138 Last Updated 2016-09-04 01:54:53

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

San Francisco at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Jorge Soler has been scratched.

San Francisco Chicago Cubs
Article Image Madison Bumgarner Article Image Jake Arrieta
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -145 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.247 6 26.3% 33.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.230 9 27.1% 27.6%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.272 36 30.3% 25.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.242 14 20.5% 24.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Madison Bumgarner
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $10,200
FPPG: 39.4 FPPG: 22.5
Pitcher Rating: 82.7 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 99.8 4.06 4.14 23.6% 8.3% 9.7% 39.2% 40.2% 31.1%
2016 28 105.3 3.43 2.49 27.4% 6.5% 11.3% 38.9% 40.5% 31.8%
2015 32 103.5 3.00 2.93 26.9% 4.5% 12.5% 41.7% 35.6% 27.8%

Home:—ERA: 1.93 — K%: 29.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.238
Away:—ERA: 3.72 — K%: 24.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302

Bumgarner continues his stellar year this afternoon with a tough start at Wrigley. He has a 3.43 SIERA and elite 27.4% strikeout rate. The matchup is less than ideal today against the Cubs who rank first in team wOBA against left handed pitching and third in ISO. With that said, he is always in play in tournament settings due to his high upside, but the price tag may be tough to shell out this afternoon.

Jake Arrieta
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $9,200
FPPG: 39.2 FPPG: 21.5
Pitcher Rating: 75.3 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 101.2 5.23 3.21 16.9% 12.3% 8.1% 52.2% 35.6% 25.3%
2016 26 101.1 3.95 2.84 24.0% 9.7% 10.2% 53.7% 28.3% 25.3%
2015 33 104.2 2.75 1.77 27.1% 5.5% 11.1% 56.2% 22.8% 22.1%

Home:—ERA: 2.28 — K%: 27.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.240
Away:—ERA: 2.17 — K%: 24.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.234

What a solid way to start the day, as we have two aces going up against each other. Arrieta has not had the same type of second half as last year, which is a bit concerning, as he has a 4.54 SIERA and just a 19.1% strikeout rate over his last 10 starts (dating back to July 1st). His price tag has dropped, especially on DraftKings, where he is under $10k. The price tag puts him into tournament play consideration today, yet I would rather pay for Bumgarner in this matchup.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

While Arrieta has not been the superhuman pitcher he was last season, he has still kept batters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA under .262 on the year. This game is not exactly one we should be using to target for offensive plays today, as it has one of the lowest totals of the slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.355 0.143 26.1% 0.469 OF $2,900 OF $4,500
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.350 0.169 29.7% 0.481 2B $2,900 2B $4,600
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.353 0.142 34.8% 0.343 C $3,200 C $3,600
4 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.339 0.209 33.5% 0.375 SS $2,600 SS $3,600
5 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.348 0.159 31.6% 0.381 OF $3,200 OF $3,300
6 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.363 0.196 39.2% 0.280 1B $3,100 1B $3,100
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.331 0.136 25.7% 0.345 3B $3,000 3B/SS $3,300
8 Angel Pagan SWITCH 0.299 0.108 22.0% 0.301 OF $3,200 OF $3,500
9 Madison Bumgarner LEFT 0.271 0.164 30.8% 0.251 P $10,200 P $10,200
Team Averages — 0.334 0.158 30.4% 0.358 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of their lower projected run totals at Wrigley of the year at just 3.76 runs, which is the sixth lowest on the day. Bumgarner has kept batters from both sides of the plate to a wOBA under .273. They are not an offense we want to pay up for today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.378 0.157 33.3% 0.326 OF $3,000 OF $3,900
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.396 0.267 39.6% 0.610 3B $3,800 3B/OF $5,200
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.375 0.201 28.4% 0.337 1B $3,300 1B $4,000
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.384 0.174 29.4% 0.337 2B $2,900 2B $3,700
5 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.340 0.163 32.7% 0.316 OF $2,500 OF $3,000
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.298 0.090 24.1% 0.363 OF $2,300 OF $2,800
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.356 0.188 25.5% 0.356 C $3,000 C/OF $3,200
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.375 0.186 33.0% 0.246 SS $2,400 2B/3B $3,400
9 Jake Arrieta RIGHT 0.302 0.143 20.0% 0.244 P $10,300 P $9,200
Team Averages — 0.356 0.174 29.6% 0.348 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston at Texas – 4:05 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Jonathan Lucroy has been scratched.

Houston Texas
Article Image Joe Musgrove Article Image Derek Holland
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU -123 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.341 2 36.4% 19.0% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.279 2 16.7% 22.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.328 3 38.5% 26.9% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.342 19 33.8% 14.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Joe Musgrove
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,300
FPPG: 28.5 FPPG: 14.8
Pitcher Rating: 68.6 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 104.2 3.54 4.36 23.5% 4.4% 9.4% 41.7% 35.4% 37.5%
2016 5 104.2 3.54 4.36 23.5% 4.4% 9.4% 41.7% 35.4% 37.5%

Home:—ERA: 0.54 — K%: 32.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.200
Away:—ERA: 8.27 — K%: 15.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.452

Musgrove will be starting for Dallas Keuchel, aawhose start has been pushed back a couple days. Musgrove has had a decent start to his rookie season with a 3.54 SIERA after his first five starts to go along with a usable 23.5% strikeout rate. The problem today is the matchup against the Rangers in Texas. The Astros are small favorites, but this game features one of the highest totals of the day for both teams. Musgrove should get some run support, so if he can keep the Rangers at bay, he is viable at sites where the win is important.

Derek Holland
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 22.1 FPPG: 10.3
Pitcher Rating: 44.2 Pitcher Rank: 25
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 78.5 3.50 1.50 22.7% 2.3% 12.7% 38.7% 35.5% 25.0%
2016 16 90.2 5.07 4.68 14.8% 7.2% 7.6% 36.5% 41.5% 28.4%
2015 10 90.9 4.43 4.91 16.7% 6.9% 6.9% 41.9% 35.2% 34.6%

Home:—ERA: 4.26 — K%: 18.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332
Away:—ERA: 5.35 — K%: 12.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.330

Holland has had a couple decent starts in a row now, but his season numbers were terrible prior. He comes into the game with a 5.07 SIERA and just a 14.8% strikeout rate. He now has to face a Houston offense that is full of power righties that should give him fits today. Avoid Holland.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have the fourth-highest projected total on the entire slate today at 4.89 runs. The list below shows a ton of blue, especially in the ISO section, which does not bode well for Holland, who has allowed righties a wOBA of .330 on the year. They make a solid offense for both tournaments and cash games today.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.409 0.263 41.5% 0.359 OF $4,000 OF $4,800
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.346 0.231 33.3% 0.410 3B $3,500 3B $4,200
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.417 0.189 30.5% 0.315 2B $4,200 2B $5,300
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.352 0.214 38.5% 0.313 SS $4,100 SS $4,200
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.321 0.222 32.1% 0.537 C $3,400 C $5,000
6 Yulieski Gurriel RIGHT 0.212 0.100 33.3% 0.344 3B $3,000 3B $2,600
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.341 0.200 33.3% 0.214 1B $3,000 1B $3,400
8 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.275 0.200 50.0% 0.331 OF $2,800 OF $2,600
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.289 0.204 26.4% 0.281 OF $2,800 OF $2,500
Team Averages — 0.329 0.203 35.4% 0.345 — — — —

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers have a solid offense that is ranked 11th and 10th in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching. They have the ninth-highest projected run total against Musgrove, putting a number of the players below into play, as they are coming off a big offensive night.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.347 0.176 29.9% 0.278 OF $3,100 OF $3,000
2 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.307 0.157 29.6% 0.294 OF $3,700 OF $4,300
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.344 0.202 33.0% 0.211 OF $3,600 OF $3,900
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.322 0.156 33.2% 0.514 3B $3,400 3B $5,000
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.336 0.227 32.4% 0.355 2B $3,600 2B $4,600
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.351 0.170 33.3% 0.341 C $3,400 C $3,700
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.354 0.229 36.0% 0.306 1B $2,700 1B $3,200
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.299 0.149 29.2% 0.249 OF $2,600 OF $3,100
9 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.290 0.086 24.8% 0.331 SS $2,400 SS $3,700
Team Averages — 0.328 0.172 31.3% 0.320 — — — —

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Carlos Beltran

Secondary Plays – Ian Desmond, Adrian Beltre, Jonathan Lucroy, Rougned Odor

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 4:10 PM ET

Editor’s Note: Brandon Phillips has been scratched.

St. Louis Cincinnati
Article Image Jaime Garcia Article Image Dan Straily
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL -125 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.299 5 22.4% 21.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.304 10 29.0% 16.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.292 21 30.4% 18.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.304 16 34.7% 22.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 28.3 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 76.6 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 86.0 3.42 5.06 22.0% 5.3% 10.5% 59.8% 26.1% 31.9%
2016 26 87.7 3.94 4.46 19.5% 7.3% 9.0% 57.2% 24.4% 30.2%
2015 20 92.9 3.39 2.43 19.0% 5.9% 9.2% 61.2% 22.3% 27.1%

Home:—ERA: 2.95 — K%: 21.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.261
Away:—ERA: 4.30 — K%: 16.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Garcia has struggled a bit over his last three starts, as he has allowed seven hits in each, and 16 total earned runs over 16 innings pitched. On the season, he sports a solid 3.95 SIERA and slightly below average strikeout rate of 19.5%. He is pitching in a hitter’s park today in Cincinnati, which makes him a risky play until we see him turn around this bad streak of starts.

Dan Straily
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 27.1 FPPG: 14.0
Pitcher Rating: 58.5 Pitcher Rank: 16
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 86.3 3.95 4.22 21.8% 3.0% 11.2% 30.0% 49.0% 33.0%
2016 25 99.5 4.63 3.92 19.9% 8.5% 9.9% 32.5% 46.2% 32.3%
2015 3 97.0 4.67 5.40 18.4% 10.5% 9.6% 41.5% 37.7% 28.3%

Home:—ERA: 2.89 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276
Away:—ERA: 5.12 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328

Straily is not someone we want to use in daily fantasy too often. He has a 4.63 SIERA and 19.9% strikeout rate. He has a very tough matchup today against the Cardinals, who rank fourth in wOBA and second in ISO against right-handed pitching. The matchup alone makes him very difficult to use today.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

This Cardinals offense could pack a punch today against Straily as they have the eighth-highest projected run total of the day at 4.65 runs. Straily has allowed lefties to a .298 wOBA and righties a .305 wOBA. Their offense is in play in both cash and tournaments for the early slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.397 0.263 43.2% 0.315 2B $4,100 2B/3B $4,700
2 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.317 0.219 33.9% 0.376 3B $3,300 2B/3B $4,500
3 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.340 0.260 43.3% 0.291 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,900
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.338 0.171 35.7% 0.376 OF $3,400 OF $4,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.311 0.101 27.8% 0.315 C $3,000 C $3,200
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.322 0.128 32.6% 0.296 SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,200
7 Matt Adams LEFT 0.315 0.193 39.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,300
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.352 0.272 40.0% 0.382 OF $3,400 OF $4,400
9 Jaime Garcia LEFT 0.144 0.000 26.7% 0.230 P $7,800 P $7,000
Team Averages — 0.315 0.179 35.8% 0.323 — — — —

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss, Stephen Piscotty

Secondary Plays – Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds have a pretty high run total today at 4.35 runs, which is 12th-highest on the day. Garcia has not shut down either side of the plate this year, as he has allowed a .314+ wOBA to both righties and lefties. They are not my favorite offense to target on the early slate, but they do have some decent value.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.264 0.112 18.8% 0.230 OF $2,900 OF $3,600
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.325 0.167 23.9% 0.470 SS $2,500 OF/SS $4,100
3 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.302 0.093 23.0% 0.272 2B $2,800 2B $3,400
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.323 0.222 39.5% 0.400 OF $3,200 OF $4,200
5 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.284 0.160 35.0% 0.414 OF $3,200 OF $3,500
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.376 0.232 30.9% 0.369 3B $2,900 3B $3,900
7 Ivan De Jesus RIGHT 0.274 0.110 16.9% 0.212 SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,700
8 Ramon Cabrera SWITCH 0.316 0.061 27.6% 0.307 C $2,200 C $2,600
9 Dan Straily RIGHT 0.063 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $6,900 P $8,100
Team Averages — 0.281 0.129 24.0% 0.297 — — — —

Elite Plays – Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Jose Peraza, Brandon Phillips

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Tampa Bay – 6:10 PM ET

Toronto Tampa Bay
Article Image Marco Estrada Article Image Blake Snell
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -120 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.273 24 28.0% 19.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.290 0 34.9% 26.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.284 21 31.8% 20.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.340 4 31.0% 22.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marco Estrada
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $8,600
FPPG: 33.0 FPPG: 18.0
Pitcher Rating: 59.9 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 92.8 4.52 4.82 18.7% 6.5% 11.0% 34.4% 43.3% 33.3%
2016 23 98.7 4.32 3.37 22.3% 8.5% 10.7% 34.8% 46.5% 32.8%
2015 28 104.0 4.64 3.13 18.1% 7.6% 9.9% 32.2% 52.3% 27.4%

Home:—ERA: 3.11 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278
Away:—ERA: 3.35 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.278

Estrada has began to struggle a bit over the last month. His ERA is over a run and a half higher than it was the rest of the season, and his SIERA has taken a bit of a bump as well. More importantly for DFS, his strikeout rate has dipped down to 18%, taking away a good amount of upside. With that said, he has a decent matchup today against the Rays today, an offense that strikes out at a very high rate against righties (23.7%). I wish his price was lower, but he is in play as an SP2.

Blake Snell
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 27.7 FPPG: 13.7
Pitcher Rating: 54.5 Pitcher Rank: 21
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 83.6 5.02 4.82 24.2% 15.8% 13.2% 31.6% 33.3% 40.4%
2016 14 93.1 4.68 3.56 23.2% 12.9% 10.5% 39.0% 33.3% 31.8%

Home:—ERA: 3.66 — K%: 24.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.329
Away:—ERA: 3.41 — K%: 21.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.328

Snell has had a solid rookie campaign. After 14 starts, he has a 3.56 ERA and solid 23.2% strikeout rate. His SIERA does show some regression is in order, as it sits more than a full run higher than his ERA at 4.68. The matchup today is the real problem even though it is in pitcher friendly Tropicana, he has to face a non-pitcher friendly offense in the Blue Jays who rank sixth in both wOBA and ISO against left-handed pitching. The matchup makes him way to dangerous to use except for tournament settings only.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

If the Blue Jays were at home their run total would be in the top-10 today, but since they are in Tampa they are just a middle of the road total. Yet, they have a solid matchup against Snell who has allowed a .340 wOBA to righties on the year.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.352 0.228 36.5% 0.404 OF $3,800 OF $4,400
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.429 0.304 41.2% 0.550 3B $4,200 3B $5,400
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.369 0.252 38.3% 0.342 1B $4,000 1B $4,600
4 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.409 0.308 31.9% 0.498 OF $3,500 OF $4,100
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.362 0.192 36.8% 0.399 C $3,300 C $4,100
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.371 0.185 40.4% 0.287 SS $3,200 SS $3,600
7 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.363 0.230 31.9% 0.296 OF $3,500 OF $4,400
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.308 0.108 29.1% 0.312 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
9 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.323 0.162 27.8% 0.275 2B $3,300 2B $3,400
Team Averages — 0.365 0.219 34.9% 0.374 — — — —

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

Estrada has kept batters to a wOBA of under .300 from both sides of the plate this year. The Rays have are small underdogs today and have a projected run total of just 3.88 today. They are not my favorite offense to target this afternoon.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.332 0.139 31.1% 0.330 2B $3,400 2B $3,500
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.318 0.172 28.0% 0.268 OF $3,200 OF $3,100
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.337 0.206 34.3% 0.331 3B $3,600 3B $3,900
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.352 0.231 35.0% 0.268 SS $3,400 1B/SS $3,800
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.325 0.128 27.5% 0.263 SS $2,900 3B/SS $2,800
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.317 0.184 35.1% 0.285 1B $2,900 1B $3,000
7 Steven Souza RIGHT 0.310 0.163 32.4% 0.276 OF $2,500 OF $3,000
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.348 0.266 34.6% 0.362 OF $2,700 OF $3,300
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.258 0.093 22.5% 0.362 C $2,400 C $2,500
Team Averages — 0.322 0.176 31.2% 0.305 — — — —

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria, Brad Miller

Stackability – RED

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
Article Image Aaron Blair Article Image Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI -141 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.438 6 32.3% 9.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.328 14 32.3% 25.0%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.357 5 28.0% 15.1% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.321 10 29.4% 28.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Blair
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $4,100 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 9.2 FPPG: 2.2
Pitcher Rating: 42.9 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 67.0 4.36 11.25 15.0% 0.0% 9.0% 31.3% 37.5% 43.8%
2016 12 80.3 5.81 8.23 12.4% 11.2% 9.0% 40.5% 37.4% 30.2%

Home:—ERA: 8.18 — K%: 10.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.383
Away:—ERA: 8.31 — K%: 14.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.422

Gant comes into this game with a sub-4.00 SIERA and a decent 22.9% strikeout rate in his 13 appearances. With that said, he is an easy fade on the night slate, as he will likely not be able to pitch deep into the ball game and Vegas has the Braves as decent underdogs. Avoid him.

Vince Velasquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,300
FPPG: 31.6 FPPG: 16.8
Pitcher Rating: 83.8 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 102.6 3.31 7.52 30.0% 7.5% 10.5% 28.2% 39.4% 46.7%
2016 23 92.2 3.68 4.21 27.4% 8.6% 11.1% 35.4% 40.3% 32.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.70 — K%: 30.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295
Away:—ERA: 4.84 — K%: 23.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.353

Velasquez has been a bit frustrating as the season progresses. He always has upside, as evidenced by his 27.4% strikeout rate this season. Yet, he has struggled at times (allowed 19 earned runs in the three games before his last start), and he only has about 25 more innings to pitch before his expected innings cap is reached. This makes him a riskier play today, even though he does have a solid matchup against the Braves, who of course rank in the bottom third of the league in the majority of offensive categories. Play him in tournaments, but realize there is risk attached.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Velasquez has allowed lefties a wOBA of .348 on the year, meaning we can attack him with some of the guys like Ender Inciarte and Freddie Freeman. Other than them, the Braves are usually a tough offense to target unless they are facing a terrible pitcher.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.340 0.117 28.2% 0.448 OF $3,200 OF $5,000
2 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.303 0.164 31.3% 0.339 3B $3,000 3B $4,300
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.393 0.258 41.0% 0.423 1B $3,900 1B $5,100
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.307 0.179 39.2% 0.307 OF $3,500 OF $3,600
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.340 0.113 29.9% 0.313 OF $2,600 OF $3,800
6 A.J. Pierzynski LEFT 0.309 0.131 28.0% C $2,000 C $2,500
7 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.316 0.117 25.0% 0.428 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,800
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.266 0.053 32.3% 0.248 SS $2,500 SS $2,800
9 John Gant RIGHT P $5,300 P $5,500
Team Averages — 0.322 0.142 31.9% 0.358 — — — —

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Gant has allowed a .340+ wOBA to both righties and lefties on the year. The Phillies are decent favorites tonight and have a projected run total of 4.49, which is 10th -highest on the day. They are a great source of value on the night slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.309 0.105 26.3% 0.332 2B $3,000 2B $4,400
2 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.347 0.145 29.8% 0.267 OF $2,400 OF $4,400
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.317 0.181 27.8% 0.244 3B $2,500 3B $3,400
4 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.326 0.251 42.8% 0.302 1B $2,600 1B $3,600
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.336 0.206 32.8% 0.250 OF $2,400 OF $4,100
6 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.292 0.147 29.8% 0.175 C $2,600 C $3,700
7 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.293 0.136 28.1% 0.396 SS $2,600 SS $4,100
8 Jimmy Paredes SWITCH 0.318 0.171 31.5% 0.194 OF $2,100 OF $2,700
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.169 0.000 9.5% 0.292 P $8,400 P $8,300
Team Averages — 0.301 0.149 28.7% 0.272 — — — —

Elite Plays – Odbel Herrera, Maikel Franco

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

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About the Author

Ryan138
Ryan138

Ryan (Ryan138) is from Chicago and has been playing fantasy sports for over 10 years. He has been playing daily fantasy sports for over 2 years since he was introduced to Daily Joust in late 2010. In the last year, Ryan has risen into the Top 100 of the RotoGrinders leaderboards by playing at DraftDay, DraftKings and FanDuel in all the major sports.