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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, April 24th

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
tampabaymlb Drew Smyly nyyankeesmlb Michael Pineda
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -110 7.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.263 2 42.1% 6.6% SP vs. Left 0.327 9 22.6% 4.8%
SP vs. Right 0.288 12 25.9% 6.8% SP vs. Right 0.329 15 24.2% 2.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Smyly
drew-smyly-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$9,100
FPPG:41.7 FPPG:26.8
Pitcher Rating:83.6 Pitcher Rank:4
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 3 2.34 34.2% 5.1% 35.4% 23 10
2015 12 3.25 28.0% 7.3% 36.8% 7 7

Smyly is probably a better pitcher than you realize and even more so against left handed batters. With a matchup against the lefty heavy Yankees this makes for a very interesting play given his career 30% strikeout rate versus left. Typically I want my pitcher to have a good ground ball rate in Yankee Stadium and while his overall numbers are not that great he does have a pretty sizable spike over his career against lefties. Keep an eye on the Yankees lineup as that will dictate just how good of a play Smyly is for us today as he currently is ranked pretty high on the day.

Michael Pineda
michael-pineda-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$9,200
FPPG:29.0 FPPG:14.4
Pitcher Rating:82.8 Pitcher Rank:5
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 3 3.35 24.0% 5.3% 39.2% 22 28
2015 27 3.09 23.4% 3.1% 48.2% 21 23

Pineda also finds himself in a pretty solid matchup here against the Rays who are near the bottom of the league in both wOBA and wRC+ against right handed pitching. Not only that but they have the second highest strikeout rate in the league at 26.8% just behind the Astros. This is a case where we should have solid strikeout potential with Pineda and his career 3.27 SIERA will keep his team in the game if you are playing on a win dependent site.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.329 0.110 2B $3,600 2B $3,700
2 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.306 0.183 1B $2,000 1B $3,000
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.304 0.151 3B $3,200 3B $3,500
4 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.409 0.309 OF $3,100 OF $3,300
5 Desmond Jennings RIGHT 0.297 0.087 OF $2,700 OF $3,100
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.331 0.173 SS $2,000 SS $3,000
7 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.317 0.175 OF $3,000 OF $3,500
8 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.326 0.176 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
9 Hank Conger SWITCH 0.357 0.220 C $2,100 C $2,900
Team Averages 0.331 0.176 $2,700 $3,244

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson

Stackability – None

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.289 0.065 OF $3,600 OF $3,700
2 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.343 0.125 OF $3,100 OF $3,400
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.325 0.200 OF $3,400 OF $3,200
4 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.332 0.176 1B $3,500 1B $3,500
5 Alex Rodriguez RIGHT 0.379 0.250 3B $3,200 1B/3B $3,500
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.323 0.167 C $3,600 C $3,300
7 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.287 0.074 2B $3,000 2B $3,400
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.310 0.115 3B $2,500 3B $3,200
9 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.284 0.065 SS $2,500 SS $2,700
Team Averages 0.319 0.137 $3,156 $3,322

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – None

Oakland at Toronto – 1:07 PM

Oakland Toronto
oaklandmlb Eric Surkamp torontomlb Andrew Hutchison
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -165 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.437 2 6.9% 3.5% SP vs. Left 0.325 11 18.8% 7.2%
SP vs. Right 0.325 1 13.6% 13.6% SP vs. Right 0.391 11 20.1% 6.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eric Surkamp
eric-surkamp-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,800 Salary:$4,800
FPPG:14.7 FPPG:5.8
Pitcher Rating:33.4 Pitcher Rank:25
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 3 6.31 8.3% 11.1% 25.0% 28 28
2015 0 3.00 25.0% 6.3% 37.5% 1 3

Surkamp is a guy you want to avoid rostering today with a tough matchup against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Through 71 2/3 innings in the big leagues he has a 12.7% strikeout rate and 5.30 SIERA which scream for us to load up on the big bats here. To make matters worse he is a fly ball pitcher facing a team that is going to take advantage of that heavily here.

Andrew Hutchison
andrew-hutchison-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$6,900
FPPG:23.8 FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:62.6 Pitcher Rank:11
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 24 10
2015 28 4.09 19.4% 6.6% 39.6% 21 4

We get a spot start from Hutchison here and if the trend continues from AAA then he should be a welcome site for the A’s today. He has struggled a bit to start the season in the minors and has been a guy who just cannot quite stick at the major league level. He has some strikeout potential but this is not a play we are looking to make today.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Billy Burns SWITCH 0.310 0.106 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
2 Chris Coghlan LEFT 0.348 0.211 OF $2,700 2B/3B $3,100
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.356 0.200 OF $3,400 OF $3,700
4 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.283 0.127 2B $2,400 2B $2,900
5 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.351 0.208 C $2,900 C $3,300
6 Coco Crisp SWITCH 0.231 0.076 OF $2,800 OF $3,000
7 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.349 0.241 OF $2,700 OF $3,200
8 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.314 0.101 1B $2,000 1B $3,100
9 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.284 0.139 SS $2,700 SS $3,200
Team Averages 0.314 0.157 $2,756 $3,278

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick , Stephen Vogt

Stackability – None

Toronto

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.285 0.076 OF $2,800 OF $3,400
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.448 0.370 3B $5,100 3B $5,300
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.365 0.211 OF $4,400 OF $4,500
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.368 0.211 1B $4,000 1B $4,800
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.368 0.176 SS $3,100 SS $4,300
6 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.323 0.279 1B $2,300 1B $3,500
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.380 0.216 C $2,600 C $4,000
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.328 0.286 SS $2,500 2B $2,500
9 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.325 0.121 OF $2,800 OF $3,100
Team Averages 0.354 0.216 $3,289 $3,933

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista , Edwin Encarnacion , Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cleveland at Detroit – 1:08 PM

Cleveland Detroit
clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco detroitmlb Shane Greene
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE -135 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.285 13 27.5% 7.0% SP vs. Left 0.423 5 10.5% 8.2%
SP vs. Right 0.279 9 30.3% 5.1% SP vs. Right 0.313 8 17.7% 7.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,200 Salary:$11,000
FPPG:39.3 FPPG:21.2
Pitcher Rating:94.0 Pitcher Rank:2
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 3 3.43 23.4% 6.5% 47.2% 9 26
2015 30 2.74 29.6% 5.9% 51.2% 13 13

Carrasco is in a very similar situation to what we had with Kluber yesterday. He offers high strikeout potential against a Tigers team that strikes out at a very high rate. The danger is in the fact that Detroit does have the bats to do a bunch of damage in a hurry. His solid ground ball percentage is something that should neutralize Detroit here which gives me a lot of confidence in him. Overall I think Carrasco is a guy we can trust and the high strikeout total will negate any runs he may allow here.

Shane Greene
shane-greene-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$5,000
FPPG:15.3 FPPG:6.4
Pitcher Rating:32.4 Pitcher Rank:26
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 2 5.13 18.4% 14.3% 40.6% 8 23
2015 16 4.82 13.4% 7.2% 43.8% 16 9

With a modest strikeout rate and a SIERA around 5 dating back to the beginning of last season we can safely avoid Green in our lineups today. Instead we may want to get some of the Indians into our lineup, more specifically left handed bats who have given him fits in the past.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.335 0.203 1B $3,100 1B $3,800
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.393 0.170 2B $3,400 2B $4,100
3 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.329 0.141 SS $3,400 SS $3,600
4 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.276 0.142 1B $3,200 1B $2,900
5 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.288 0.174 C $2,400 C $3,300
6 Marlon Byrd RIGHT 0.311 0.198 OF $3,100 OF $3,300
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.287 0.131 OF $2,200 3B/OF $2,800
8 Juan Uribe RIGHT 0.303 0.127 3B $2,000 3B $2,700
9 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.253 0.000 OF $2,000 OF $2,900
Team Averages 0.308 0.143 $2,756 $3,267

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis , Carlos Santana

Stackability – None

Detroit

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.335 0.134 2B $4,000 2B $4,100
2 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.352 0.218 OF $3,100 OF $3,800
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.397 0.183 1B $3,800 1B $3,700
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.268 0.124 C $2,700 1B $3,400
5 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.368 0.239 OF $3,400 OF $3,600
6 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.292 0.145 3B $2,700 3B $2,900
7 Tyler Collins LEFT 0.318 0.155 OF $2,100 OF $2,300
8 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.253 0.082 C $2,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.295 0.054 SS $2,300 SS $2,200
Team Averages 0.320 0.148 $3,013 $3,111

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – None

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM

Chicago Cubs Cincinnati
cubsmlb Jason Hammel cincinnatimlb Alfredo Simon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -170 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.301 7 23.5% 8.4% SP vs. Left 0.373 17 12.8% 9.2%
SP vs. Right 0.304 16 24.4% 4.0% SP vs. Right 0.328 9 17.1% 7.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,200 Salary:$7,900
FPPG:39.0 FPPG:20.6
Pitcher Rating:77.0 Pitcher Rank:6
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 3 4.18 21.4% 10.0% 42.6% 27 7
2015 31 3.45 24.2% 5.6% 38.3% 24 13

Hammel may be one of the more under rated pitchers for the Cubs and he is a fringe play for me today against the Reds in Cincinnati. He offers decent enough strikeout potential but it is a little worrisome that the Reds just put a huge number on Lackey and the bullpen last night. This is a hitters park after all but he can be a player we use more on multiple pitcher sites today.

Alfredo Simon
alfredo-simon-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$5,200
FPPG:6.7 FPPG:1.2
Pitcher Rating:21.9 Pitcher Rank:29
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 2 4.23 22.0% 12.2% 48.0% 5 16
2015 31 4.88 14.3% 8.3% 43.6% 14 30

Simon is a guy who was already a pitcher I wanted to target from the beginning of the season and even more so now that we know he is dealing with a bicep injury that forced him to skip his last start. Facing a Cubs offense and offering up little resistance in his past two starts we can safely target him with hitters here.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.340 0.182 OF $4,000 OF $4,900
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.349 0.155 OF $3,600 OF $4,200
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.380 0.218 3B $4,500 3B/OF $5,000
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.388 0.264 1B $4,600 1B $5,200
5 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.322 0.156 2B $3,100 2B $4,200
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.252 0.075 SS $2,500 3B/SS $3,600
7 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.320 0.145 SS $2,600 SS $3,400
8 David Ross RIGHT 0.235 0.103 C $2,400 C $2,700
9 Jason Hammel RIGHT 0.180 0.033 P $8,200 P $7,900
Team Averages 0.307 0.148 $3,413 $4,150

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler , Kris Bryant , Jason Heyward

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.325 0.185 SS $3,000 SS $3,000
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.310 0.151 3B $3,200 3B $4,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.406 0.221 1B $3,400 1B $4,200
4 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.316 0.106 2B $2,800 2B $3,500
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.325 0.238 OF $3,900 OF $3,900
6 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.350 0.295 OF $2,400 OF $3,400
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.320 0.222 OF $2,000 OF $2,900
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.306 0.088 C $2,300 C $2,300
9 Alfredo Simon RIGHT 0.000 0.000 P $6,700 P $5,200
Team Averages 0.295 0.167 $2,875 $3,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – None

Minnesota at Washington – 1:35 PM

Minnesota Washington
minnesotamlb Tyler Duffey washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS -220 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB% Stats wOBA HR All. K% BB%
SP vs. Left 0.297 1 27.1% 9.0% SP vs. Left 0.243 5 30.0% 7.8%
SP vs. Right 0.320 3 16.7% 7.5% SP vs. Right 0.312 9 28.4% 2.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

--300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary: Salary:$6,700
FPPG: FPPG:0.0
Pitcher Rating:55.6 Pitcher Rank:14
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 23 22
2015 10 3.83 21.9% 8.3% 49.7% 18 28

Duffey will be making his first start of the season for the Twins today filling in for Ervin Santana who has been scratched. He did make ten starts last season and held his own with a modest strikeout rate. All things considered this Nationals lineup is not a team I want to pick on with a still unproven pitcher. He is off to a good start in the minors this season but it is a whole other level here and I feel confident fading Duffey today especially against Strasburg.

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$11,600 Salary:$11,500
FPPG:51.7 FPPG:28.3
Pitcher Rating:98.6 Pitcher Rank:1
Statistics Starts SIERA K% BB% GB% O-wOBA O-K%
2016 3 3.04 26.6% 8.9% 62.0% 11 19
2015 23 2.76 29.6% 5.0% 42.2% 26 22

This is a dream scenario for us today with Strasburg who is at home facing one of the worst teams against right handed pitching on the young season. He offers up as much strikeout potential here as anyone on the day and even with the hefty price tag we should see a fair amount of him in our opponents lineups. Strasburg is the number one pitcher on my board and as such makes for a fantastic cash game anchor today.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.377 0.127 SS $2,800 3B/SS $2,700
2 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.314 0.198 2B $3,000 2B $3,400
3 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.321 0.115 1B $3,300 1B $3,100
4 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.389 0.251 OF $3,600 OF $3,600
5 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.317 0.196 3B $2,900 3B $3,000
6 Oswaldo Arcia LEFT 0.329 0.194 OF $2,700 OF $2,900
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.305 0.187 OF $2,600 OF $2,900
8 John Murphy RIGHT 0.262 0.060 C $2,000 C $2,400
9 Tyler Duffey RIGHT P $6,700
Team Averages 0.327 0.166 $2,863 $3,411

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – None

Washington

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt den Dekker LEFT 0.335 0.224 OF $2,000 OF $3,000
2 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.304 0.098 3B $2,800 3B $4,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.477 0.368 OF $5,800 OF $5,400
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.352 0.199 2B $3,600 2B $4,400
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.273 0.131 C $2,800 C $3,100
6 Clint Robinson LEFT 0.319 0.155 1B $2,000 1B/OF $2,900
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.264 0.124 OF $2,400 OF $3,200
8 Danny Espinosa SWITCH 0.294 0.161 SS $2,200 SS $2,600
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.148 0.000 P $11,600 P $11,500
Team Averages 0.307 0.162 $2,950 $3,575

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – None


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About the Author

louiescards
Andrew Cook (louiescards)

Andrew “LouiesCards” Cook is a DFS veteran who has been playing since 2009. You will see him grinding MLB, NBA, and NFL with a main focus on DraftKings. Over the years he has held several roles at RotoGrinders helping write articles and features, both in-front and behind-the-scenes. Andrew was able to throw the first pitch out at a St. Louis Cardinals game, courtesy of DraftKings. You can follow Andrew on twitter @louiescards