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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 19th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-08-19 14:03:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
Article Image Diego Castillo Article Image Hector Velazquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.383 57.6% 1.35 25.0% 48.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.371 26.1% 1.65 14.7% 35.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.248 0.276 33.3% 0.44 26.8% 47.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.313 30.5% 0.00 12.9% 58.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Diego Castillo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 0 3.75 3.74 26.1% 11.6% 47.6% 42.9% 17.9% 96.6 13.6%
L14 0 4.15 2.70 23.1% 11.5% 43.8% 43.8% 25.0% 96.7 16.5%

Diego Castillo is the latest Rays reliever to draw a start. Obviously you’re not playing him. It looks as though Jalen Beeks will be the long reliever here. While he’s pitched well lately, you certainly don’t want to be rostering a volatile young arm at Fenway against the Red Sox. Just fade the Rays’ pitchers here. 

Quick Breakdown: Fade the Rays’ pitchers in Boston.

Hector Velazquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 3 4.32 2.92 19.8% 7.3% 42.9% 30.0% 11.4% 89.6 7.9%
2018 4 4.50 2.77 13.7% 6.5% 48.8% 28.6% 18.0% 90.9 7.9%
L14 1 6.12 4.76 0.0% 4.6% 45.0% 15.0% 20.0% 91.0 4.1%

Hector Velasquez will get the call on Sunday in place of the injured Chris Sale. Velasquez has pitched in 35 games for the Red Sox this season, including 4 starts. The right-hander has pitched well this season, but he hasn’t thrown more than 49 pitches in any game since June. He’s probably not going to pitch all that deep into today’s game, which obviously limits his upside. Velasquez also isn’t all that cheap, which makes him an easy fade at home against the Rays. 

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez likely isn’t stretched out enough to be worth his price tag today.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

Hector Velasquez is a pretty hittable spot-starter for the Red Sox, so the Rays are a decent option today. He’s been a bit worse against lefties, which puts Joey Wendle, Jake Bauers, Kevin Kiermaier and Mallex Smith into play. C.J. Cron and Matt Duffy are the best options from the right side here. I’d consider some of the lefties in cash games while leaving the righties for GPPs. Brandon Lowe is also a punt option worth considering. Tampa isn’t one of the top stacks of the day, but they’re unlikely to draw big ownership despite taking their hacks in an elite hitters’ park. 

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.301 0.137 29.8% 9.3% 18.0% 46.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,700
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.312 0.083 27.3% 6.3% 15.6% 52.9% 3B $2,300 3B $3,200 3B $6,800
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.360 0.221 44.1% 13.8% 24.6% 43.6% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,400
4 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.351 0.165 47.2% 10.0% 25.7% 51.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,500
5 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.376 0.244 44.3% 8.1% 30.3% 39.3% 1B $2,000 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,400
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.325 0.124 36.6% 5.7% 18.7% 46.1% 2B $2,300 2B/OF $3,800 2B $7,700
7 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.255 0.096 31.2% 7.1% 24.7% 52.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 CF $5,600
8 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.295 0.157 29.1% 9.0% 26.9% 44.7% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
9 Michael Perez LEFT 0.315 0.135 38.7% 5.0% 17.5% 32.3% C $2,000 C $3,100 C $5,500
Team Averages 0.321 0.151 36.5% 8.3% 22.4% 45.4%

Elite Plays – Jake Bauers, Kevin Kiermaier, Joey Wendle

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Mallex Smith, Matt Duffy, Tommy Pham

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are at home and they draw a matchup with the Rays and their bullpen. Bullpen games can be tricky, but just play Red Sox hitters if you can afford them. J.D. Martinez seems to hit dongs on a nightly basis, while Mookie Betts is Mookie Betts. Andrew Benintendi is also a strong play if you have the money. Xander Bogaerts, Ian Kinsler and Steve Pearce are some potential low-owned difference-makers. As usual, the Red Sox are among the top stacks on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.462 0.287 45.6% 11.3% 13.3% 33.3% OF $5,100 OF $6,100 RF $11,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.408 0.205 30.7% 13.1% 13.9% 37.5% OF $3,900 OF $5,100 LF $9,800
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.414 0.229 35.9% 10.1% 20.3% 41.4% 1B $3,300 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.465 0.368 46.5% 10.5% 22.1% 44.6% OF $5,000 OF $6,000 RF $11,300
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.384 0.251 38.4% 7.4% 16.9% 48.6% SS $3,800 SS $5,400 SS $10,500
6 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.340 0.202 32.5% 8.5% 10.2% 37.2% 2B $3,000 2B $4,500 2B $9,000
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.268 0.128 24.8% 2.3% 15.3% 50.0% 3B $2,400 2B/3B $3,700 2B $7,700
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.269 0.127 28.5% 3.6% 25.6% 43.2% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,800
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.379 0.196 39.8% 10.2% 22.9% 40.0% OF $2,600 OF $4,300 CF $8,300
Team Averages 0.377 0.221 35.9% 8.6% 17.8% 41.8%

Elite Plays – J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Mitch Moreland, Steve Pearce

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
Article Image Ryan Borucki Article Image J.A. Happ
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-230 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.282 28.9% 0.00 14.6% 64.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.226 0.288 29.5% 0.59 25.8% 53.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.329 0.349 32.6% 0.23 14.5% 41.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.312 31.0% 1.49 26.7% 39.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ryan Borucki
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 9 4.95 3.29 14.5% 7.9% 47.4% 31.6% 14.7% 91.8 6.6%
L14 3 6.05 4.24 6.7% 9.3% 50.8% 31.8% 20.6% 91.7 3.4%

Ryan Borucki has a 3.29 ERA this season, but don’t be fooled. He’s not very good. The left-hander has a 4.95 SIERA alongside a middling strikeout rate of 14.5%. Borucki has kept the ball on the ground fairly well and has limited hard contact, but today he has the misfortune of facing the Yankees in New York. Yankee Stadium is a no-fly zone for a guy like this.

Quick Breakdown: Borucki has all of the downside today.

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3% 91.8 9.5%
2018 23 3.64 3.86 26.5% 7.5% 42.7% 30.7% 22.2% 91.9 10.5%
L14 2 4.26 2.08 26.0% 10.0% 25.0% 44.8% 37.9% 91.7 11.5%

J.A. Happ gets a #RevengeGame today in his new home park against the Blue Jays. The left-hander has pitched well since joining the Yankees, and he boasts a strong 26.5% strikeout rate on the year. His 3.64 SIERA is slightly better than his 3.86 ERA, and he’s kept the hard-hit rate down. The Toronto offense isn’t bad, but it’s also fairly watered-down these days. Happ won’t come cheap, but he’s an elite option on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Happ is an elite option if you want to pay all the way up.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Happ is a good pitcher, but he’s also a lefty with a wide split that will give up some home runs. Most of the Toronto RHBs aren’t very good, but there are some viable options here. Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk stand out as the best plays on the Jays side of things. Devon Travis is also a decent value play if he hits high in the order. I’m lukewarm on the Jays in general here, however. 

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.344 0.155 29.2% 6.6% 24.5% 40.3% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
2 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.362 0.237 29.9% 1.3% 11.7% 44.8% 2B $2,700 2B $3,400 2B $6,900
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.296 0.136 23.1% 9.5% 23.4% 51.0% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 1B $7,500
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.363 0.298 34.2% 7.5% 31.3% 37.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,300
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.350 0.121 35.3% 8.3% 20.7% 48.2% 1B $2,400 1B $3,300 1B $6,700
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.280 0.154 34.7% 3.2% 14.5% 38.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
7 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.327 0.106 29.2% 17.3% 22.2% 56.3% 3B $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,800
8 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.323 0.224 28.6% 5.5% 16.5% 41.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.310 0.500 20.0% 0.0% 16.7% 40.0% SS $2,000 SS $3,000 SS $5,500
Team Averages 0.328 0.215 29.4% 6.6% 20.2% 44.2%

Elite Plays – Randal Grichuk

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Devon Travis

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw Ryan Borucki, a mediocre lefty getting a park downgrade today. Giancarlo Stanton is one of the top plays at any position, so he’s worth prioritizing here. Gleyber Torres, Aaron Hicks and Miguel Andujar also grade out pretty well in this spot. Neil Walker is also a viable salary-saver here. I’m fine with Didi Gregorius in GPPs, but I’d go heavier on the right-handed Yankees against Borucki.Stanton is the one you want to cram into your cash game lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.411 0.295 47.6% 13.0% 19.5% 35.8% OF $3,900 OF $4,900 CF $8,700
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.454 0.356 59.3% 11.1% 25.2% 38.4% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 RF $10,100
3 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.318 0.246 32.7% 4.6% 19.2% 42.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 3B $9,400
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.292 0.163 31.3% 7.0% 13.3% 46.3% SS $3,700 SS $4,600 SS $9,400
5 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.365 0.233 48.3% 9.4% 28.1% 31.7% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
6 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.237 0.086 31.7% 6.5% 27.4% 50.0% OF $2,400 1B/2B $3,500 2B $6,700
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.318 0.160 34.3% 13.1% 26.2% 34.3% 1B $2,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,600
8 Kyle Higashioka RIGHT 0.366 0.375 50.0% 0.0% 37.5% 30.0% C $2,000 C $3,400 C $6,700
9 Shane Robinson RIGHT 0.107 0.000 14.3% 8.3% 33.3% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,500
Team Averages 0.319 0.213 38.8% 8.1% 25.5% 34.4%

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks, Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Neil Walker

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Baltimore Cleveland
Article Image Yefry Ramirez Article Image Mike Clevinger
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-280 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.313 28.9% 0.93 23.9% 28.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.318 0.340 35.2% 0.99 19.9% 38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.335 31.8% 2.18 20.9% 42.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.283 0.274 36.1% 0.80 27.7% 42.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Yefry Ramirez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,700
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 8 4.59 5.40 22.5% 11.2% 36.3% 30.4% 23.5% 92.2 12.3%
L14 2 6.92 9.45 17.1% 20.0% 18.2% 27.3% 31.8% 92.2 7.6%

Yefry Ramirez has a respectable 22.5% strikeout rate and a 4.59 SIERA this season. He also has a walk rate over 11% and he has the misfortune of being a fly ball pitcher going into Cleveland today. While Ramirez certainly has upside at his super cheap price point, rolling with opposing pitchers against the Indians carries far too much risk for cash games. 

Quick Breakdown: Yefry Ramirez is an easy fade.

Mike Clevinger
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $10,200 Salary: $19,700
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.24 3.11 27.3% 12.0% 39.5% 34.2% 18.6% 92.5 12.5%
2018 24 4.04 3.38 23.8% 8.4% 40.4% 35.7% 17.7% 93.4 11.4%
L14 3 4.61 3.00 20.0% 9.3% 41.2% 34.6% 23.1% 94.1 8.9%

Mike Clevinger figures to be fairly popular today given his matchup with the Orioles. The right-hander has a 23.8% K-rate on the year, and he’s clipped his walk rate by about 4% compared to last season. His 4.05 SIERA is a bit more pedestrian than his 3.38 ERA, and he’s allowed hard hits at a 35.6% rate. He’s a bit more expensive than I’d like, but this is still a great spot. Clevinger is right there with J.A. Happ as the best pitching options on the main slate from a raw points perspective. 

Quick Breakdown: Like Happ, Clevinger is a strong play if you’re paying up.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t nearly as appealing as they were even a month ago from a DFS perspective. This is now one of the weaker lineups in the league, and they draw a tough matchup against Mike Clevinger today. I suppose you can take a shot on a cheap Jonathan Villar here, but nobody else on the Baltimore side really stands out. Fading the O’s offense entirely is unlikely to be the reason you lose today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cedric Mullins LEFT 0.326 0.267 28.6% 11.8% 5.9% 42.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.274 0.088 29.4% 7.5% 27.2% 62.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,500 2B $6,300
3 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.379 0.185 37.6% 8.3% 23.8% 48.6% OF $2,800 1B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,500
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.358 0.197 41.9% 6.9% 25.1% 37.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 DH $7,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.311 0.145 37.3% 8.6% 36.2% 40.3% 1B $2,100 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
6 Renato Nunez RIGHT 0.340 0.171 37.7% 9.0% 21.8% 42.3% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.296 0.137 29.5% 6.3% 26.0% 47.4% SS $2,900 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,400
8 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.333 0.209 31.9% 8.4% 14.7% 34.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 RF $5,800
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.276 0.158 28.7% 3.9% 26.8% 43.5% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,800
Team Averages 0.321 0.173 33.6% 7.9% 23.1% 44.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

We don’t have a big sample size of Ramirez’ work at the major league level, but he’s looked plenty hittable against hitters of either handedness. As usual, you can load up on the Indians today if you can afford them. Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor and Michael Brantley are the top plays holding the platoon edge here, while Yonder Alonso and Jason Kipnis are in play if you need someone more affordable. The Indians may not be the top stack on the board, but they’re still one of the better offenses of the day. 

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.406 0.281 43.1% 10.1% 16.6% 33.8% SS $4,400 SS $5,700 SS $10,600
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.404 0.188 44.3% 8.7% 8.1% 43.7% OF $4,200 OF $5,300 LF $9,600
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.423 0.379 39.8% 18.1% 11.6% 29.4% 3B $5,200 3B $5,900 IF/OF $11,200
4 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.554 0.077 66.7% 0.0% 7.7% 33.3% 3B $3,200 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.383 0.209 38.9% 9.1% 19.9% 37.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.110 38.9% 5.4% 12.6% 43.3% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,200
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.349 0.131 37.3% 10.4% 17.9% 35.3% 2B $3,100 2B $4,000 2B $7,300
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.297 0.153 42.1% 4.7% 28.3% 34.9% C $2,600 C $3,800 C $7,700
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.271 0.079 40.9% 5.3% 18.4% 45.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
Team Averages 0.380 0.179 43.6% 8.0% 15.7% 37.4%

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes

Stackability – GREEN

San Francisco at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

San Francisco Cincinnati
Article Image Andrew Suarez Article Image Luis Castillo
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.220 0.254 29.1% 0.29 22.6% 65.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.384 0.380 43.5% 2.01 21.6% 39.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.374 44.4% 1.68 20.1% 45.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.277 0.318 35.1% 1.19 23.0% 48.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Andrew Suarez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 21 3.87 4.40 20.7% 6.0% 50.3% 40.7% 17.5% 92.3 6.9%
L14 3 4.39 6.19 18.6% 7.1% 45.1% 55.8% 15.4% 91.9 5.5%

I liked Madison Bumgarner in this spot yesterday, and he promptly went out there and got BABIP’d to death. Suarez is no Bumgarner, but he’s still quietly enjoyed a respectable rookie campaign. The left-hander has a 20.7% strikeout rate on the year alongside a strong 3.87 SIERA. The 40.7% hard-hit rate allowed is absolutely a concern, and he gets a sizable park downgrade today going from San Francisco to Cincinnati. The Reds’ lineup isn’t nearly as imposing these days without Joey Votto, but Suarez isn’t looking like a guy worth building around on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Suarez isn’t the worst play on the board, but this doesn’t feel like the spot for him.

Luis Castillo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 3.63 3.12 27.3% 8.9% 58.8% 29.7% 22.1% 97.5 12.7%
2018 24 4.04 5.04 22.3% 7.4% 44.2% 39.2% 18.4% 95.5 13.8%
L14 2 3.93 5.73 21.7% 6.5% 48.5% 39.4% 21.2% 96.4 11.9%

Luis Castillo hasn’t been lights-out this season, but some of his numbers say he’s been a little unlucky. His 5.04 ERA looks downright unsavory, but his 4.04 SIERA looks quite a bit more favorable. The right-hander has a solid 22.3% strikeout rate, and his walk numbers aren’t egregious. The 39.2% hard-hit rate isn’t ideal, and Castillo has also surrendered 22 homers across 24 starts. That said, the Giants offense opposing him today just got dominated by Matt Harvey, so I suppose anything is possible. I think there are better options in his price range, but I wouldn’t talk you out of Castillo if you wanted to take a shot here in GPPs. He carries quite a bit of upside any time he takes the mound. 

Quick Breakdown: Castillo isn’t a core play, but he’s viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

Castillo has largely held his fellow righties in check, but left-handed hitters have a wOBA of .384 against him on the year. LHBs have also accounted for 13 of the 22 homers he’s allowed. Brandon Belt was a big, chalky letdown last night, but he once again grades out as an elite option here in a homer-friendly park. Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik are also viable options from the left side. The righties aren’t as appealing, but I don’t hate Andrew McCutchen or Buster Posey in tournaments. The left-handed hitters are the ones I’d be focused on for cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.355 0.154 44.8% 12.9% 22.5% 37.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 RF $8,400
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.374 0.128 33.1% 7.7% 7.7% 40.3% 2B $2,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,400
3 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.338 0.084 34.1% 7.6% 12.4% 48.8% C $2,400 C $3,600 C $7,200
4 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.400 0.245 47.1% 12.4% 20.9% 18.4% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,400
5 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.305 0.151 41.5% 3.5% 23.9% 40.9% 3B $2,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,700
6 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.328 0.142 37.3% 10.2% 20.7% 42.7% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,300
7 Alen Hanson SWITCH 0.255 0.231 25.2% 3.6% 18.5% 40.2% OF $2,600 2B/OF $4,200 2B $8,300
8 Steven Duggar LEFT 0.236 0.116 32.7% 6.8% 27.0% 44.9% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,200
9 Andrew Suarez LEFT 0.164 0.000 10.0% 9.1% 45.5% 87.5% P $7,200 P $6,600 P $12,800
Team Averages 0.306 0.139 34.0% 8.2% 22.1% 44.5%

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford

Secondary Plays – Joe Panik, Buster Posey, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Cincinnati

While we can attack Castillo with lefties, the way to get to Suarez is with right-handed bats. Eugenio Suarez has been mashing all year, and he profiles well here for some potential Suarez-on-Suarez crime. Jose Peraza is a decent option at shortstop, while Curt Casali has power potential at catcher if he manages to crack the lineup. The Reds don’t seem to be a necessary stack, but they have some decent one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.252 0.101 27.7% 7.5% 31.8% 25.4% OF $2,100 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.289 0.092 24.2% 3.6% 5.8% 40.0% SS $2,700 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
3 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.304 0.167 42.7% 5.1% 24.3% 37.2% 2B $3,200 2B $4,300 2B $8,600
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.485 0.320 57.3% 15.4% 18.8% 37.3% 3B $3,500 3B $4,700 3B $9,000
5 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.385 0.389 35.7% 10.0% 20.0% 28.6% OF $2,400 OF $4,100 RF $8,300
6 Dilson Herrera RIGHT 0.258 0.000 20.0% 11.1% 33.3% 20.0% 2B $2,000 2B/OF $3,900 2B $7,700
7 Brandon Dixon RIGHT 0.215 0.167 40.0% 4.0% 36.0% 50.0% 2B $2,000 1B/OF $2,900 2B $5,800
8 Curt Casali RIGHT 0.398 0.238 33.3% 12.0% 12.0% 44.4% C $2,800 C $3,600 C $7,500
9 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.107 0.000 27.3% 0.0% 26.7% 50.0% P $6,800 P $7,600 P $14,500
Team Averages 0.299 0.164 34.2% 7.6% 23.2% 37.0%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Curt Casali

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Pittsburgh
Article Image Jose Quintana Article Image Jameson Taillon
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-118 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.288 28.9% 0.91 23.1% 53.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.327 0.322 32.0% 0.80 17.2% 45.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.366 38.3% 1.60 19.7% 40.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.266 29.4% 0.87 25.3% 50.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,500 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 3.80 4.15 26.2% 7.7% 44.8% 32.6% 18.2% 92.1 8.5%
2018 23 4.62 4.46 20.5% 10.2% 42.8% 36.2% 16.2% 91.5 7.4%
L14 3 3.82 5.71 21.1% 4.2% 42.3% 23.1% 17.3% 91.7 5.3%

Jose Quintana continues to struggle, and he’s now conceded at least 5 earned runs in 3 of his last 4 outings. The southpaw has seen his strikeouts dip about 6% to just over 20% on the year, while his walk rate is north of 10%. Quintana is also serving up a decent amount of hard contact (36.2%) and today he draws a matchup with a decent Pirates lineup. Pittsburgh does strike out a bit more against lefties than righties, but Quintana’s price tag is still a bit high for my liking given his propensity for getting blown up. There’s certainly a path to a good start for him here, but I’ll be passing on him until he starts to flash some consistent form.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana isn’t on my radar today.

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $16,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 25 4.24 4.44 21.3% 7.8% 47.3% 29.6% 22.1% 95.3 8.2%
2018 24 3.93 3.66 21.1% 6.2% 47.9% 30.7% 19.3% 95.3 10.1%
L14 2 4.99 3.00 11.5% 3.3% 39.2% 30.8% 13.5% 95.2 8.1%

Jameson Taillon is a solid pitcher that seems to always slip through the cracks whenever he takes the mound. He’s a decent enough pitcher – 21.1% strikeouts, low walks, low hard contact – and he’s allowed 3 earned runs or fewer in every start since late-May. The K upside isn’t huge here today against the Cubs (Chicago is 21st in K-rate vs. RHP), but it’s a decent spot for run prevention and Taillon is fairly priced. I think he’s going to fall just shy of making the cut for me in cash games, but he figures to be a decently low-owned option you can play in GPPs.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is a solid play today against the Cubs.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Taillon has conceded a .327 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the year, so if you must have some Cubs you’ll probably want to take the lefties. Anthony Rizzo makes for a fine enough play, but first base is stacked and Rizzo doesn’t come cheap. Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist are playable as tournament one-offs, but nothing really stands out from the Chicago side of things in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.374 0.188 36.6% 13.8% 13.1% 44.3% 2B $3,100 2B/OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,300
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.346 0.138 30.7% 9.2% 11.1% 45.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 RF $7,200
3 David Bote RIGHT 0.414 0.189 39.0% 11.5% 19.7% 58.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.402 0.212 35.2% 11.5% 9.7% 37.7% 1B $4,100 1B $4,500 1B $8,900
5 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.342 0.277 37.7% 3.1% 27.0% 45.7% 2B $3,800 2B/SS $4,600 2B $9,400
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.379 0.256 41.7% 15.0% 25.4% 40.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,200
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.306 0.147 30.4% 7.3% 20.9% 50.7% C $2,700 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,300
8 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.116 0.000 15.0% 0.0% 35.5% 80.0% P $7,500 P $7,000 P $13,700
9 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.287 0.083 30.6% 8.8% 22.5% 43.5% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,700
Team Averages 0.330 0.166 33.0% 8.9% 20.5% 49.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Quintana has allowed a .344 wOBA and 17 homers on the season against right-handed hitters. Unfortunately, PNC Park is just about the worst park in the league when it comes to right-handed power. Starling Marte is the one player in this lineup that stands out as a potential cash game option, but in general this looks like a game where you can safely fade both offenses. Francisco Cervelli is a solid catching option, as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.290 0.090 22.5% 4.2% 19.8% 42.3% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.370 0.192 37.5% 7.0% 21.9% 53.2% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 CF $8,000
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.284 0.181 35.6% 10.1% 26.1% 38.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 RF $8,400
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.392 0.141 42.9% 9.8% 21.4% 53.2% 3B $2,500 1B/3B $3,900 3B $7,200
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.395 0.164 35.7% 17.6% 19.1% 31.0% C $3,100 C $4,100 C $8,400
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.328 0.180 30.3% 12.1% 22.4% 42.1% 1B $2,900 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
7 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.324 0.160 36.4% 6.8% 17.0% 36.4% 2B $2,400 2B $3,600 2B $7,400
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.299 0.078 31.0% 7.0% 11.3% 39.7% SS $2,200 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.166 0.000 20.0% 10.0% 40.0% 66.7% P $8,400 P $8,800 P $16,700
Team Averages 0.316 0.132 32.4% 9.4% 22.1% 44.7%

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Francisco Cervelli

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles