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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 5th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-08-05 15:05:10

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Editor’s Note: Page 3 will be posted shortly!

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Atlanta NY Mets
Article Image Julio Teheran Article Image Corey Oswalt
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-115 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.376 42.4% 1.38 17.7% 39.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.264 0.348 21.2% 1.46 15.2% 38.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.323 37.4% 1.87 25.5% 39.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.354 39.1% 1.80 19.4% 50.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 32 4.89 4.49 18.6% 8.9% 40.0% 30.4% 21.1% 91.4 9.4%
2018 21 4.75 4.46 21.7% 11.8% 39.4% 39.8% 18.9% 89.9 10.8%
L14 2 5.74 9.64 15.2% 13.0% 40.6% 43.8% 21.9% 90.7 7.7%

Kevin Gausman proved to be quite mediocre on Saturday in this matchup, but I think we can go right back to the well with Julio Teheran here. Of course, it’s worth noting that Teheran isn’t in the midst of his best season. The right-hander has a strikeout rate of 21.7% along with a high walk rate of 11.8%. He has also allowed hard hits at a 39.7% clip, which is dangerous. All things told, he hasn’t been anything special. Still, he’s a pitcher with a solid track record taking on a middling Mets lineup in what may be the best pitcher’s park in all of baseball. There is admittedly plenty of risk when it comes to Teheran, but he’s in a pretty solid spot today. I think he’s in the SP2 conversation as a result.

Quick Breakdown: Teheran is a viable SP2 option today in New York.

Corey Oswalt
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 5 4.50 5.27 17.6% 7.4% 45.5% 31.7% 19.0% 90.3 7.3%
L14 1 4.79 3.60 21.1% 10.5% 27.3% 33.3% 0.0% 90.7 8.1%

Corey “Not Roy” Oswalt has only pitched in 6 games for the Mets this season, including 5 starts. The young right-hander has an uninspiring strikeout rate of 17.6%, but his 4.30 SIERA is quite a bit more palatable than his 5.27 ERA. His hard contact rate allowed isn’t egregious by any means and he keeps the ball on the ground more often than not. The Braves offense opposing him today isn’t bad by any means, but Citi Field strongly favors pitchers and Oswalt hasn’t been bad. If you want to go super cheap with your SP2 and load up on some pricey bats I think Oswalt is a solid-if-unspectacular option.

Quick Breakdown: Oswalt is a viable punt SP2 for tournaments but he’s unnecessary for cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Corey Oswalt has looked serviceable for the Mets this season. That plus the pitcher-friendly nature of Citi Field means I don’t find myself having a ton of interest in the Braves bats here today. Freddie Freeman and Ozzie Albies rake right-handed pitching, but they’re both expensive enough to where I think they’re tournament-only here. Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis and Ender Inciarte are fine plays if you want to stack ATL bats in GPPs. Whichever catcher (Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers) starts is fine if you need to save some salary.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.373 0.248 45.1% 6.8% 29.6% 40.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 LF $9,300
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.318 0.226 35.9% 4.3% 17.5% 36.0% 2B $4,100 2B $5,000 2B $9,500
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.408 0.185 45.0% 13.4% 16.9% 37.6% 1B $4,200 1B $5,000 1B $9,700
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.398 0.167 42.3% 10.4% 8.8% 42.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.322 0.146 35.1% 5.7% 8.6% 32.7% C $2,700 C $3,500 C $6,900
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.318 0.160 38.5% 13.2% 20.5% 51.0% 3B $3,200 3B/SS $4,100 3B $8,300
7 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.291 0.121 27.1% 7.7% 12.6% 45.6% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,300
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.280 0.142 33.2% 6.7% 22.6% 44.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 SS $6,300
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.212 0.000 21.4% 0.0% 12.5% 63.6% P $7,600 P $7,800 P $15,300
Team Averages 0.324 0.155 36.0% 7.6% 16.6% 43.7%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (cash), Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, Ronald Acuna, Kurt Suzuki / Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Julio Teheran has stifled right-handed bats in his career while struggling quite a bit with lefties. There isn’t a whole lot to like in this Mets lineup these days, but Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo are some quality LHBs that should be able to capitalize on Teheran’s weakness. Jeff McNeil is also a solid option from the left side, especially because he’s still cheap. Given the spacious park and the general terribleness of this Mets lineup, though, I’d stay away from any of the NYM bats in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.365 0.244 35.9% 13.3% 27.3% 34.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 LF $9,100
2 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.349 0.155 41.9% 14.8% 29.6% 35.5% OF $2,300 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.349 0.164 36.8% 16.8% 22.0% 36.8% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.318 0.234 37.4% 7.5% 9.1% 35.5% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,700 3B $7,400
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.355 0.178 45.5% 10.0% 22.0% 35.8% 3B $2,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,500
6 Jeff McNeil LEFT 0.317 0.158 20.0% 12.0% 20.0% 38.5% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,300 2B $6,800
7 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.276 0.117 26.5% 5.2% 19.1% 50.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 SS $5,700
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.315 0.174 32.0% 6.0% 18.5% 32.0% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,600
9 Corey Oswalt RIGHT 0.028 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% P $6,000 P $5,500 P $11,300
Team Averages 0.297 0.158 30.7% 9.5% 27.0% 44.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, Michael Conforto

Stackability – RED

Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Tampa Bay
Article Image James Shields Article Image Hunter Wood
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.359 30.2% 1.25 19.2% 38.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.243 28.6% 1.00 32.5% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.328 0.349 36.1% 1.25 17.3% 33.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.285 32.4% 1.54 26.0% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3% 90.0 10.2%
2018 23 4.87 4.56 18.2% 9.1% 35.9% 33.3% 15.2% 89.4 10.4%
L14 2 3.88 8.18 29.4% 11.8% 34.5% 37.9% 10.3% 90.3 16.7%

James Shields and his 18.2% strikeout rate will be taking the mound for the White Sox today against the Rays. Shields has had some decent starts this season, but he doesn’t miss many bats and his 4.87 SIERA isn’t quite as friendly as his 4.56 ERA. The right-hander has also allowed 20 homers across his 24 outings. While all-out stacks against Shields haven’t been all that fruitful this season, he still isn’t a guy you want to be rostering on a full slate. The upside is limited here.

Quick Breakdown: James Shields is an easy fade.

Hunter Wood
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 0 13.42 0.00 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 90.0 0.0%
2018 4 3.37 3.05 28.9% 10.0% 46.3% 30.9% 21.8% 94.1 14.9%
L14 3 2.23 3.86 41.9% 9.3% 42.9% 19.1% 14.3% 94.5 16.9%

Hunter Wood is another of the Rays’ openers that will likely throw no more than a couple of innings today. Wood is a decent strikeout pitcher in a good strikeout matchup against the White Sox, but rostering a guy that probably won’t even crack 50 pitches isn’t something you want to be doing on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Fade Wood and his pitch cap today.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox’ hitters are getting a major park downgrade going from Guaranteed Rate Field into the Trop. The Rays will also be going with their patented bullpen game in this one, which makes figuring out which players to use from the opposing offense rather tricky. Kevin Cash has been generally secretive about which pitchers will come in and throw long relief in lieu of his openers. We know the White Sox aren’t a great offense in the first place, so they can be pretty easily ignored outside of a deep GPP flier stack. Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia would be the best targets in that scenario, but I have very little interest in the Sox today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.347 0.207 39.0% 10.4% 33.8% 31.7% 2B $3,700 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.310 0.169 27.8% 6.4% 18.7% 46.2% 3B $2,800 3B $3,400 2B $6,500
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.381 0.210 35.6% 6.6% 17.9% 43.8% 1B $3,900 1B $4,500 1B $9,400
4 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.329 0.280 37.7% 5.5% 35.2% 39.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,200
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.366 0.241 42.0% 2.0% 23.5% 47.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
6 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.346 0.156 26.9% 9.2% 17.8% 38.1% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,600
7 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.288 0.115 25.9% 4.2% 25.1% 51.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
8 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.341 0.146 28.0% 10.0% 16.4% 43.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,400
9 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.271 0.147 26.6% 6.0% 25.5% 49.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,600 SS $7,500
Team Averages 0.331 0.186 32.2% 6.7% 23.8% 43.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Yoan Moncada

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

James Shields has been annoying to stack against this season, but his numbers still aren’t very good. He has still conceded 20 dongs already and his xFIP against hitters of either handedness is over 5.00. Lefties are the more traditional way to attack Shields, which puts Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, Joey Wendle and Ji-Man Choi in play. C.J. Cron is the best power hitter from the right side, while Matt Duffy is a fine enough option given the matchup. I wouldn’t go crazy with Rays bats in cash games, but Tampa does make for a viable stack in GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.274 0.113 33.3% 8.7% 25.5% 51.1% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
2 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.311 0.087 28.5% 5.6% 15.1% 52.5% 3B $2,800 3B $3,600 3B $7,300
3 Jake Bauers LEFT 0.376 0.261 45.5% 14.0% 24.4% 40.4% 1B $3,700 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,300
4 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.355 0.237 38.7% 5.6% 24.6% 42.7% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
5 Michael Perez LEFT 0.383 0.063 41.7% 0.0% 25.0% 33.3% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,700
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.320 0.117 36.9% 6.0% 19.9% 47.0% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 2B $7,700
7 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $5,600 P $6,600 P $8,000
8 Willy Adames RIGHT 0.262 0.112 25.8% 7.2% 28.9% 42.6% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,400 SS $6,300
9 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.289 0.129 30.0% 8.9% 18.6% 45.2% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 CF $8,600
Team Averages 0.321 0.124 31.2% 6.2% 20.2% 50.5%

Elite Plays – Kevin Kiermaier, Jake Bauers, C.J. Cron

Secondary Plays – Joey Wendle, Matt Duffy, Ji-Man Choi

Stackability – YELLOW

LA Angels at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels Cleveland
Article Image Deck McGuire Article Image Shane Bieber
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-167 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.334 30.8% 1.42 13.2% 46.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.410 0.368 48.2% 1.40 22.9% 37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.480 0.460 57.9% 4.38 22.6% 18.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.277 41.0% 0.70 23.1% 53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Deck McGuire
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,200
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 2 4.56 2.63 19.6% 3.6% 28.6% 40.5% 11.9% 92.7 9.5%
2018 3 5.19 6.12 18.3% 13.0% 32.5% 44.2% 10.4% 93.4 10.0%
L14 0 11.47 0.00 0.0% 33.3% 50.0% 25.0% 0.0% 93.9 5.7%

Deck McGuire has pitched in 7 games for the Angels this season, including 3 starts. The right-hander hasn’t gone very deep in any of his starts, with his season-high for pitches currently sitting at 64. He threw just 24 pitches in a minor league appearance a couple of days ago, so it’s safe to say he’s not all that stretched out. McGuire is also a low-strikeout guy going into a hitter-friendly park to take on the Indians, so that’s pretty much all you need to know.

Quick Breakdown: Don’t play McGuire.

Shane Bieber
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,900
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2018 9 3.62 4.73 23.0% 4.5% 45.3% 44.7% 10.1% 92.7 11.2%
L14 2 3.88 11.25 23.1% 5.1% 32.1% 42.9% 10.7% 93.7 10.1%

Shane Bieber has had some decent success as a rookie this season. The right-hander has a respectable strikeout rate of 23% alongside a low 4.5% walk rate. His 3.62 SIERA is quite a bit better than his 4.73 ERA, and he has kept the ball on the ground at a 45.3% clip. The 44.7% hard-hit rate against him is a concern, and he will be facing a Halos lineup today that doesn’t strike out all that much. That said, Mike Trout has missed the last couple of games with a wrist injury, and we saw Corey Kluber absolutely dominate a Trout-free lineup on Saturday. Trout being out of the lineup would be a pretty hefty boost, and Bieber is affordably priced today.

UPDATE: The Angels are without Trout, Justin Upton and Albert Pujols today, which puts Bieber squarely in play as a strong SP2 in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Bieber is a solid SP2 option today assuming the Angels will still be without Mike Trout.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Shane Bieber has been decent for the Tribe this season, but he has still struggled against left-handed hitters. The Biebs has allowed a .410 wOBA with 4 of his 6 home runs allowed coming against LHBs. There aren’t many lefties of note in this lineup, but Shohei Ohtani and Kole Calhoun grade out as solid plays in the outfield. Bieber has been effective against righties, and the Angels have a low implied total this afternoon. Other than a sprinkling of Ohtani and/or Calhoun, they make for an easy fade in my eyes.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.336 0.210 40.5% 6.7% 24.9% 48.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,600 RF $8,900
2 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.388 0.216 46.3% 11.8% 27.3% 42.6% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 LF $9,100
3 Shohei Ohtani RIGHT 0.430 0.338 45.3% 9.7% 24.1% 41.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.366 0.176 41.5% 4.3% 12.7% 38.1% 1B $2,700 1B $4,300 1B $8,600
5 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.349 0.117 36.8% 5.6% 5.2% 48.6% SS $2,900 SS $4,500 SS $9,000
6 David Fletcher RIGHT 0.285 0.082 27.4% 5.2% 14.3% 30.6% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,700 3B $7,200
7 Francisco Arcia LEFT 0.497 0.615 70.0% 7.1% 21.4% 40.0% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,500
8 Kaleb Cowart SWITCH 0.220 0.091 37.5% 8.3% 25.0% 25.0% 3B $2,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,600
9 Eric Young SWITCH 0.167 20.0% 0.0% 14.3% 40.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
Team Averages 0.359 0.224 40.6% 6.5% 18.8% 39.3%

Elite Plays – Shohei Ohtani

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians bats will have to deal with a hittable righty in Deck McGuire as well as a number of LAA relievers today. As usual, Cleveland makes for one of the top overall offenses today and an elite stacking option. The usual suspects (Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion) are your prime targets, while Jason Kipnis, Yan Gomes and Yonder Alonso can be deployed wherever you see fit. The Tribe stack won’t come cheap, but it’s an offense you’re going to want some exposure to today. With most of the chalk presumably siding with the game at Wrigley today, the Indians might go a little overlooked.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.412 0.286 42.7% 10.0% 16.3% 33.7% SS $4,800 SS $5,700 SS $10,200
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.401 0.192 43.7% 6.9% 8.2% 43.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 LF $8,500
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.424 0.367 40.2% 17.8% 11.9% 29.7% 3B $5,200 3B $5,900 IF/OF $11,000
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.388 0.261 43.5% 8.6% 23.3% 38.6% 1B $4,000 1B $4,700 1B $9,100
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.391 0.208 40.5% 10.1% 19.1% 39.2% 1B $3,300 1B $4,200 1B $8,300
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.316 0.105 35.7% 4.7% 11.8% 45.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,700
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.335 0.125 36.0% 9.6% 18.8% 36.5% 2B $2,800 2B $3,200 2B $6,800
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.289 0.158 40.0% 4.1% 29.5% 32.9% C $2,400 C $4,000 C $7,400
9 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.395 0.167 41.7% 9.9% 21.0% 38.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
Team Averages 0.372 0.208 40.4% 9.1% 17.8% 37.6%

Elite Plays – Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Brantley

Secondary Plays – Yan Gomes, Jason Kipnis, Yonder Alonso

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati at Washington – 1:35 PM ET

Cincinnati Washington
Article Image Luis Castillo Article Image Tanner Roark
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-160 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.377 44.4% 1.90 21.9% 38.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.320 26.8% 1.27 24.6% 39.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.324 34.4% 1.13 22.8% 48.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.352 29.6% 0.95 17.5% 46.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Castillo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 8 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 15 3.63 3.12 27.3% 8.9% 58.8% 29.7% 22.1% 97.5 12.7%
2018 22 4.05 4.98 22.4% 7.5% 43.8% 39.2% 18.1% 95.4 14.0%
L14 2 2.94 0.73 30.4% 4.4% 34.5% 48.3% 10.3% 96.1 13.4%

Luis Castillo has been a guy we’ve wanted to play in certain matchups, but that’s not the case today in DC. The right-hander has a 22.4% strikeout rate and his walks aren’t often an issue. His 4.05 SIERA is also quite a bit more friendly than his 4.98 ERA. Castillo’s ground ball rate this year has plummeted from where it was last season, and he has yielded an unsightly hard contact rate over 39%. He has also allowed 19 homers in his 22 starts. Castillo has also struggled with lefties, and we know the Nationals have plenty of quality LHBs to throw at him. The risk outweighs the reward here, in my opinion.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t the right spot for Castillo.

Tanner Roark
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $9,600 Salary: $18,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 30 4.31 4.67 21.4% 8.3% 48.2% 27.8% 16.7% 92.2 10.1%
2018 21 4.28 4.37 21.1% 8.0% 42.8% 28.3% 19.1% 91.3 8.9%
L14 2 2.32 0.60 34.0% 1.9% 50.0% 17.7% 20.6% 92.1 10.0%

Tanner Roark has been his usual unremarkable (from a fantasy perspective) self this season. The righty has a strikeout rate a hair over 21% and a SIERA of 4.28. While the ground balls have come down a tick, he has still been good about limiting hard-hit balls (28.3% hard contact). Roark isn’t a bad pitcher by any means, but his DFS upside is always limited, and today he comes in vastly overpriced at $9,600 on DraftKings. His price is more playable on FanDuel, but this isn’t that great a matchup to begin with. While he comes with a fairly long leash, there are better pitching options on the slate today.

Quick Breakdown: Roark doesn’t have as much upside as some of the other SP2s we can play today.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Roark has struggled against lefties this season to the tune of a .329 wOBA allowed. 9 of the 16 dingers he has conceded have also come off the bats of lefties. While the Reds aren’t a good team, they do have some quality bats in the lineup. Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett are your top options from the left side, but I wouldn’t talk you out of Eugenio Suarez or Jose Peraza from the right side, either. Cincinnati looks like a middle-of-the-road offense in general today. The problem with playing them in cash games is that they’re fairly expensive and there are stronger offenses to target. The Reds do make for a potentially contrarian GPP stack, however.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.300 0.109 31.6% 6.2% 12.5% 36.9% SS $2,700 SS $3,500 SS $6,500
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.351 0.192 38.7% 8.0% 17.5% 38.6% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $8,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.455 0.159 38.7% 19.3% 13.0% 34.4% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 1B $8,200
4 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.382 0.261 51.0% 8.9% 23.2% 35.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,600 3B $9,100
5 Mason Williams LEFT 0.313 0.167 53.3% 0.0% 25.0% 69.2% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $5,500
6 Preston Tucker LEFT 0.294 0.189 41.3% 5.8% 26.7% 48.1% OF $2,200 OF $3,500 LF $6,700
7 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.340 0.111 40.5% 10.7% 16.6% 41.7% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,700
8 Luis Castillo RIGHT 0.173 0.040 18.8% 7.1% 35.7% 85.7% P $6,900 P $7,900 P $15,000
9 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.250 0.069 20.3% 10.1% 24.1% 44.6% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,500
Team Averages 0.318 0.144 37.1% 8.5% 21.6% 48.3%

Elite Plays – Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

The Nationals have been raking lately, and today they’ll take their hacks against Luis Castillo, who has really struggled getting lefties out this season. Left-handed hitters have a wOBA of .376 and they have accounted for 11 of the 19 home runs he’s given up on the year. Bryce Harper left last night’s game with a leg injury, but I’ll still have plenty of interest if he’s good to go this afternoon. Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton and Daniel Murphy are the other top options from the left side. While Castillo has been significantly better against right-handed bats, I still think rounding out your stacks with Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon is viable. Once again, the Nats are one of the best offenses on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.394 0.112 41.3% 10.3% 13.3% 46.7% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 CF $9,100
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.326 0.155 32.2% 8.2% 20.8% 52.2% SS $4,300 SS $5,500 IF/OF $10,300
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.381 0.211 37.8% 9.1% 14.9% 36.5% 3B $3,800 3B $4,300 3B $8,600
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.397 0.280 42.4% 18.8% 26.2% 36.4% OF $4,600 OF $5,500 RF $10,300
5 Juan Soto LEFT 0.379 0.229 34.6% 17.4% 17.9% 50.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 LF $8,700
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.389 0.283 37.6% 9.3% 19.6% 32.2% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $4,200 1B $8,000
7 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.386 0.167 19.4% 8.8% 8.8% 30.1% 2B $3,500 1B/2B $4,300 2B $8,300
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.277 0.098 27.9% 9.5% 14.3% 39.7% C $2,400 C $3,100 C $5,500
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.161 0.080 11.8% 0.0% 33.3% 81.3% P $7,800 P $9,600 P $18,700
Team Averages 0.343 0.179 31.7% 10.2% 18.8% 45.0%

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, Juan Soto, Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rendon

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Trea Turner, Matt Wieters

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Miami Philadelphia
Article Image Dan Straily Article Image Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-240 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% HR/9 K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.362 0.369 43.5% 1.58 19.8% 33.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.284 23.5% 0.40 23.4% 48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.380 46.0% 1.93 18.5% 35.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.225 0.243 26.3% 0.48 28.1% 53.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dan Straily
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $11,900
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 33 4.43 4.26 22.1% 7.8% 34.2% 32.6% 19.1% 90.3 12.2%
2018 17 4.93 4.41 19.2% 10.8% 34.5% 44.7% 14.1% 90.4 10.2%
L14 2 4.30 7.71 21.7% 8.7% 41.9% 59.4% 15.6% 90.0 10.0%

Dan Straily has struggled quite a bit this season after being decent in 2017. The right-hander has a 4.93 SIERA along with a subpar K-rate of 19.2%. Straily has allowed hard hits at a gross 44.7% clip, and his fly ball tendency has resulted in 17 homers allowed in 17 starts. While he will get the benefit of facing the high-strikeout Phillies today, Straily also gets a sizable park hit going from Marlins Park to Citizens Bank. I think the downside is greater than the upside here.

Quick Breakdown: Straily isn’t worth the headache on this slate.

Aaron Nola
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,000 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $23,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC% aFV SwS%
2017 27 3.60 3.54 26.6% 7.1% 49.8% 29.7% 21.6% 92.0 10.8%
2018 22 3.51 2.35 25.7% 6.9% 50.7% 24.9% 22.0% 92.3 11.7%
L14 2 4.02 2.77 22.0% 6.0% 41.2% 22.2% 30.6% 93.2 13.3%

Finally, a good pitching option. Aaron Nola has been dominant this season. The right-hander has a 25.7% strikeout rate along with a high ground ball rate of 50.7%. His 3.50 SIERA is quite a bit less friendly than his 2.35 ERA, but he doesn’t walk anybody and his soft contact rate (22%) is nearly as high as his hard contact rate (24.9%). Today he’ll be taking the mound against a punchless Marlins lineup. Miami has struck out 23% of the time against right-handed pitching this season, which is the 10th-highest mark in the league. Nola is expensive, but I think he’s worth paying for today.

Quick Breakdown: Nola is the top pitching option on the main slate.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

I love Nola today, so I certainly don’t like the Marlins. Nola’s been tough on hitters of either handedness and he’s only allowed 7 homers on the year. No, thanks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.325 0.119 38.1% 5.5% 18.9% 48.1% 2B $2,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
2 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.360 0.126 38.0% 7.0% 17.4% 50.4% OF $2,800 3B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
3 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.380 0.236 39.5% 5.2% 16.9% 42.5% C $3,100 C $4,400 C $8,400
4 Justin Bour LEFT 0.369 0.223 42.0% 16.2% 25.8% 39.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,600 1B $7,600
5 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.274 0.075 29.1% 3.6% 21.7% 47.6% 3B $2,100 3B $2,800 3B $5,900
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.339 0.156 36.8% 6.8% 23.8% 39.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,200
7 JT Riddle LEFT 0.305 0.157 34.9% 4.7% 22.1% 48.6% SS $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
8 Magneuris Sierra LEFT 0.102 0.000 18.2% 0.0% 38.9% 77.8% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,300
9 Wei-Yin Chen LEFT 0.120 0.048 7.7% 0.0% 38.1% 83.3% P $5,900 P $4,300 P $8,300
Team Averages 0.286 0.127 31.6% 5.4% 24.8% 53.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Dan Straily hasn’t been good this season, and he’s really scuffled against lefties. LHBs have a .362 wOBA against him so far in 2018, so the Phillies make for some fine targets this afternoon. The lefties (Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Nick Williams, Cesar Hernandez) stand out as strong plays as one-offs or as a part of a stack. Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco are your best bets from the right side. Philly isn’t there with the Cubs, Nationals or Indians today, but there’s some upside here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.320 0.124 23.3% 14.2% 21.9% 42.1% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,500
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.387 0.287 37.8% 11.7% 26.0% 28.4% OF $4,500 OF $5,400 IF/OF $10,500
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.304 0.197 26.1% 7.5% 21.6% 40.3% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,200
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.367 0.174 34.2% 20.0% 15.7% 39.4% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
5 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.362 0.237 43.8% 8.0% 21.4% 39.7% SS $3,100 2B/SS $4,200 SS $8,500
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.327 0.222 25.9% 5.0% 14.1% 53.3% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 3B $8,300
7 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.344 0.125 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 71.4% OF $2,500 OF $4,200 CF $8,500
8 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.276 0.139 33.6% 4.3% 38.8% 53.1% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,700
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.126 0.034 5.6% 2.9% 44.1% 63.6% P $10,000 P $12,400 P $23,800
Team Averages 0.313 0.171 27.0% 8.2% 22.6% 47.9%

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera, Asdrubal Cabrera, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins, Carlos Santana, Cesar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Jorge Alfaro

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles