MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 23rd
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Editor’s Note – Page Three (late slate) will be available later today
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Oakland at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET
Oakland | NY Mets | ||||||||||||||
Daniel Gossett | Rafael Montero | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
NYM-115 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.323 | 0.290 | 25.0% | 4.8% | 11.3% | 60.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.396 | 0.341 | 25.3% | 13.3% | 17.8% | 41.9% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.374 | 0.412 | 37.4% | 2.9% | 15.7% | 39.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.344 | 0.329 | 29.0% | 13.2% | 25.3% | 44.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Daniel Gossett | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,500 | Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $12,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 7 | 4.60 | 5.79 | 14.0% | 3.7% | 47.4% | 32.6% | 20.0% | |
L30 | 5 | 4.68 | 5.27 | 13.3% | 4.2% | 50.0% | 27.3% | 22.2% |
Welcome to the Sunday MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule today with 10 included on the early slate (nine on FanDuel) and then five included on the late slate. The way things worked out, nearly all of the good pitching is concentrated on the late slate. The ownership should be pretty spread out today overall except for a small bump to hitters at Coors Field.
We’ll kick things off with Daniel Gossett at the Mets. He’s made seven starts this season allowing a 5.79 ERA, 14% K rate and 3.7% BB rate. Based on his walk rate, you can already tell he has pretty good control which shows in his 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s held LH hitters to a .323 wOBA (60.8% GB rate) while allowing a .374 wOBA to RH hitters (30.8% GB rate).
Quick Breakdown: Gossett will take on a Mets lineup that skews LH. While Gossett has better splits against LH hitters, this will be no easy task. There’s very little upside when you pitch someone with a 14% K rate.
Rafael Montero | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 25 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 3 | 5.40 | 8.05 | 21.5% | 17.2% | 35.7% | 31.6% | 17.5% | |
2017 | 5 | 4.52 | 5.40 | 22.2% | 11.6% | 46.3% | 25.5% | 16.3% | |
L30 | 3 | 3.93 | 3.86 | 24.1% | 7.2% | 43.4% | 19.6% | 16.1% |
Rafael Montero owns a 5.4 ERA, 22.2% K rate and 11.6% BB rate through five starts this season. He’s generating a decent amount of ground balls at 46.3% while limiting hard contact to 25.5%. When you put it all together, he’s allowing a .396 wOBA vs. LH and .344 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The good news for Montero is that he’ll take on an Athletics offense that ranks second in K% vs. RH at 25.4%. They also own a .321 wOBA and 103 wRC+ though.
Quick Breakdown: With limited pitching available on the early slate, Montero makes quite a bit of sense as an SP2 or low-end SP1 in on single-pitcher sites. He’ll obviously need to control the walks but the bump in strikeouts he gets from Oakland plus his own 22.2% K rate make him viable here.
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
While Montero is playable, so are the Athletics against him. He owns a .396 wOBA vs. LH and .344 vs. RH hitting. My preferred option here would be Matt Joyce who owns a .327 wOBA an d.208 ISO vs. RH pitching. Beyond that, I don’t hate Marcus Semien for salary relief on FD based on the gap between his wOBA an xwOBA he’s been unlucky. You could also fire up Yonder Alonso or Khris Davis as well as they both hit RH pitching well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Matt Joyce | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.346 | 0.208 | 31.7% | 14.0% | 20.4% | 33.9% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,600 |
2 | Marcus Semien | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.321 | 0.111 | 24.3% | 15.2% | 27.3% | 32.4% | SS | $2,300 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $7,200 |
3 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.400 | 0.386 | 0.288 | 32.7% | 14.3% | 24.3% | 29.6% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,600 |
4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.390 | 0.304 | 42.3% | 10.0% | 32.3% | 39.6% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $9,000 |
5 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.348 | 0.359 | 0.195 | 36.4% | 8.8% | 17.3% | 28.1% | 2B | $2,800 | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $6,400 |
6 | Bruce Maxwell | LEFT | 0.359 | 0.329 | 0.111 | 43.5% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 43.5% | C | $2,400 | C | $2,500 | C | $5,200 |
7 | Matt Chapman | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.302 | 0.273 | 39.3% | 8.2% | 32.7% | 28.6% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $2,000 | 3B | $3,900 |
8 | Jaycob Brugman | LEFT | 0.310 | 0.285 | 0.077 | 19.4% | 13.2% | 23.6% | 47.0% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,000 | CF | $3,900 |
9 | Daniel Gossett | RIGHT | 0.876 | 0.082 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,500 | P | $5,400 | P | $12,400 |
Elite Plays – Matt Joyce
Secondary Plays – Khris Davis or Yonder Alonso
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
NY Mets
The Mets have a somewhat tough task against Daniel Gossett as he owns a high ground ball rate against LH hitters at 60.8%. They have a healthy implied team total that which shouldn’t scare us too far away. It’s also possible that Gossett’s reverse splits may not end up holding up once we have a large enough sample. The data in the chart below would tell you to play Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto and Lucas Duda but my favorite option here is Yoenis Cespedes who owns a decent .328 wOBA vs. RH pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Michael Conforto | LEFT | 0.407 | 0.389 | 0.277 | 42.0% | 14.7% | 22.7% | 37.8% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $10,000 |
2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.318 | 0.357 | 0.171 | 34.6% | 11.2% | 14.4% | 45.5% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,200 |
3 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.392 | 0.377 | 0.299 | 44.3% | 9.9% | 21.6% | 33.3% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,200 |
4 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.329 | 0.157 | 41.1% | 7.2% | 15.1% | 38.3% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,200 |
5 | Lucas Duda | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.402 | 0.303 | 44.3% | 15.1% | 22.2% | 26.0% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $4,000 | 1B | $8,700 |
6 | T.J. Rivera | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.301 | 0.151 | 29.8% | 3.8% | 10.7% | 37.7% | 3B | $2,300 | 1B/3B | $3,600 | 3B | $6,600 |
7 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.285 | 0.284 | 0.159 | 27.1% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 36.9% | SS | $2,800 | 3B/SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,800 |
8 | Rene Rivera | RIGHT | 0.284 | 0.328 | 0.108 | 31.7% | 5.8% | 24.8% | 42.0% | C | $2,500 | C | $2,700 | C | $4,800 |
9 | Rafael Montero | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.077 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | P | $6,400 | P | $6,000 | P | $14,400 |
Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes
Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
Texas at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET
Texas | Tampa Bay | ||||||||||||||
Tyson Ross | Jake Odorizzi | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
TB -180 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.372 | 32.1% | 9.3% | 17.3% | 46.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.277 | 0.287 | 30.7% | 7.1% | 23.5% | 36.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.397 | 0.326 | 30.2% | 12.5% | 17.5% | 32.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.336 | 0.348 | 37.8% | 7.7% | 19.2% | 33.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Tyson Ross | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $14,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 1 | 3.64 | 11.81 | 18.5% | 3.7% | 47.4% | 42.1% | 21.1% | |
2017 | 6 | 5.54 | 7.22 | 17.2% | 12.5% | 37.2% | 28.7% | 12.6% | |
L30 | 5 | 5.69 | 8.22 | 16.0% | 12.3% | 36.1% | 31.5% | 15.1% |
In six starts this season, Tyson Ross owns a 7.22 ERA, 17.2% K rate and 12.5% BB rate. He’s allowing a .313 wOBA vs. LH and .397 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. Coming back from injury, ground balls have all but disappeared for Ross at 37.2%. The one positive here is that the Rays own a 24.4% K rate vs. RH pitching. That comes with the disclaimer that they also own a .334 wOBA 111 wrC+ and .201 ISO.
Quick Breakdown: The lack of ground balls and increase in walks this season have be a bit concerned about Ross. While I enjoy picking on the strikeout-heavy Rays as much as anyone, this isn’t the idea spot to use Ross right now.
Jake Odorizzi | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $16,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 11 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 33 | 4.21 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 7.0% | 36.6% | 33.7% | 16.8% | |
2017 | 17 | 4.75 | 4.37 | 20.1% | 8.4% | 30.6% | 37.5% | 15.8% | |
L30 | 4 | 5.14 | 6.23 | 19.0% | 8.4% | 22.4% | 48.5% | 19.1% |
Jake Odorizzi has looked positively average this season with a 4.37 ERA, 20.1% K rate and 8.4% BB rate. What you hate to see from Odorizzi is a 30.6% ground ball rate and 37.5% hard contact rate. That said, pitching is ugly on the early slate. Odorizzi will take on a Rangers team that owns a 23.7% K rate, .319 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.
Quick Breakdown: On this particular slate, Odorizzi is a strong SP2 play and a decent pay even on single-pitcher sites. He’s likely to give up a home run or two but hopefully the increased strikeouts will make up for it here.
Batter Grind Down
Texas
The way to attack Odorizzi is with RH hitters as he owns a .277 wOBA vs. LH and .336 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Those are of course reverse splits which don’t leave us a ton to work with. I would primarily look at the RH power here which leads me to Adrian Beltre. He owns a .375 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Outside of Beltre, nothing really stands out to me on a slate with plenty of poor pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Shin-soo Choo | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.384 | 0.181 | 41.5% | 12.6% | 20.4% | 47.3% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $8,700 |
2 | Elvis Andrus | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.305 | 0.158 | 29.0% | 6.6% | 17.4% | 48.9% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,400 |
3 | Nomar Mazara | LEFT | 0.336 | 0.337 | 0.201 | 34.2% | 10.0% | 19.2% | 37.6% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
4 | Adrian Beltre | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.342 | 0.266 | 36.4% | 9.4% | 10.8% | 49.1% | 3B | $3,300 | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,200 |
5 | Mike Napoli | RIGHT | 0.296 | 0.313 | 0.233 | 37.2% | 7.8% | 30.7% | 36.5% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,200 |
6 | Rougned Odor | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.297 | 0.225 | 36.8% | 4.4% | 24.4% | 39.1% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,600 |
7 | Jonathan Lucroy | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.300 | 0.102 | 24.3% | 6.1% | 11.7% | 52.6% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,700 |
8 | Carlos Gomez | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.342 | 0.232 | 42.2% | 10.4% | 30.7% | 40.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
9 | Joey Gallo | LEFT | 0.348 | 0.340 | 0.317 | 43.1% | 14.9% | 35.7% | 26.7% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B/3B | $3,400 | IF/OF | $6,800 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
Tampa Bay
The Rays are one of several teams that get the sneaky stack label today. Tyson Ross is allowing a .397 wOBA vs. RH over the past two seasons. Steven Souza has a .393 wOBA vs. RH pitching. There’s also Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison who each own a hard hit rate over 37.5% against RH pitching. All three are worthy of consideration as one-off plays or as part of a full stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Steve Souza | RIGHT | 0.393 | 0.389 | 0.303 | 39.5% | 12.5% | 28.6% | 40.0% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,700 |
2 | Corey Dickerson | LEFT | 0.366 | 0.330 | 0.233 | 37.5% | 5.8% | 21.0% | 37.8% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $8,100 |
3 | Evan Longoria | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.314 | 0.186 | 31.7% | 4.9% | 14.7% | 43.2% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,800 | 3B | $8,000 |
4 | Logan Morrison | LEFT | 0.397 | 0.409 | 0.338 | 44.6% | 14.7% | 21.9% | 32.0% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $9,000 |
5 | Wilson Ramos | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.349 | 0.200 | 48.0% | 5.9% | 17.6% | 48.0% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
6 | Brad Miller | LEFT | 0.293 | 0.317 | 0.092 | 34.9% | 20.8% | 25.3% | 56.6% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,100 | SS | $6,800 |
7 | Tim Beckham | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.312 | 0.168 | 46.7% | 5.4% | 32.7% | 47.0% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $4,800 |
8 | Mallex Smith | LEFT | 0.325 | 0.263 | 0.080 | 18.3% | 11.7% | 15.6% | 54.7% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $7,600 |
9 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.274 | 0.051 | 25.6% | 1.0% | 16.2% | 51.9% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,600 | SS | $5,100 |
Elite Plays – Steven Souza
Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson
Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
Miami at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET
Miami | Cincinnati | ||||||||||||||
Tom Koehler | Sal Romano | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CIN-105 | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.359 | 0.361 | 30.9% | 13.8% | 19.4% | 37.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.433 | 0.363 | 50.0% | 17.2% | 24.1% | 31.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.325 | 0.327 | 29.1% | 7.9% | 18.2% | 45.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.433 | 0.305 | 27.3% | 16.1% | 12.9% | 65.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Tom Koehler | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,800 | Salary: | $5,200 | Salary: | $10,200 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 33 | 4.85 | 4.33 | 19.0% | 10.7% | 42.2% | 28.6% | 21.0% | |
2017 | 11 | 5.28 | 7.92 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 38.3% | 34.8% | 13.3% | |
L30 | 3 | 5.43 | 10.80 | 19.0% | 13.8% | 42.1% | 26.3% | 21.1% |
Tom Koehler owns a 7.92 ERA, 18.2% K rate and 11.7% BB rate through 11 starts this year. He’s allowing a .359 wOBA vs. LH and.325 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He only generates ground balls at 38.3% while allowing 34.8% hard contact. The over/under is set at 11 here as neither pitcher is all that great. Koeher will take on a Reds offense that checks in at 21.2% K rate, .328 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against RH pitching.
Quick Breakdown: I prefer not to pick on a sneaky good Reds offense when I don’t have to. There are better options than Koehler on this slate.
Sal Romano | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $5,400 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 29 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 24 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2017 | 3 | 5.95 | 7.50 | 18.3% | 16.7% | 50.0% | 36.8% | 18.4% | |
L30 | 2 | 4.91 | 8.00 | 21.4% | 14.3% | 61.5% | 37.0% | 11.1% |
Sal Romano has made just three MLB starts. He owns a 7.5 ERA, 18.3% K rate and 16.7% BB rate. The lone bright spot here is a 50% ground ball rate but Romano is still getting crushed with a hard hit rate of 36.8%. When you put all that together you get a .433 wOBA both vs. LH and RH hitters. He’ll take on a Marlins offense that checks in at 20.3% K rate, .319 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Romano hasn’t shown any control at the MLB level. I have no interest here in a game with an over/under of 11.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
We can fire away with hitters from either side of the plate. It is worth noting that Romano has struck out LH hitters at 24.1% compared to 12.9% vs. RH hitters. Giancarlo Stanton is an elite play here against a young pitcher without great command. Dee Gordon also gets a slight bump against a pitcher with a 16.7% BB rate. Of course, Christian Yelich and Justin Bour are playable vs. any RH pitcher as they smash RH pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.270 | 0.071 | 18.5% | 5.2% | 13.1% | 56.9% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $3,800 | 2B | $7,800 |
2 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.371 | 0.299 | 37.2% | 9.7% | 25.6% | 42.9% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,800 |
3 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.349 | 0.129 | 37.4% | 11.4% | 19.1% | 57.4% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $9,300 |
4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.377 | 0.271 | 44.8% | 7.6% | 22.7% | 45.2% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,600 |
5 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.364 | 0.392 | 0.254 | 44.8% | 11.0% | 20.9% | 40.1% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $5,000 | 1B | $9,600 |
6 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.320 | 0.122 | 29.4% | 5.9% | 16.1% | 51.3% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,200 | C | $7,200 |
7 | Derek Dietrich | LEFT | 0.280 | 0.278 | 0.144 | 32.9% | 4.5% | 18.4% | 38.4% | 3B | $2,400 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $6,900 |
8 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.337 | 0.063 | 15.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 44.4% | SS | $2,400 | 3B/SS | $2,700 | 2B | $5,400 |
9 | Tom Koehler | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.022 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 76.9% | 100.0% | P | $5,800 | P | $5,900 | P | $10,200 |
Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon
Secondary Plays – Justin Bour and Christian Yelich
Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
Cincinnati
The Reds are plenty stackable here against Tom Koehler as he owns a .359 wOBA vs. LH and.325 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Joey Votto and Zack Cozart are the two top options with Votto owning a .424 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez and Billy Hamilton are in play as part of any Reds stack as well.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.301 | 0.263 | 0.083 | 16.4% | 9.2% | 20.1% | 45.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,200 | CF | $8,400 |
2 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.313 | 0.234 | 29.0% | 12.9% | 17.6% | 40.7% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $9,300 |
3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.424 | 0.429 | 0.283 | 35.2% | 17.2% | 10.6% | 34.7% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $5,100 | 1B | $10,400 |
4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.295 | 0.241 | 34.5% | 5.5% | 27.3% | 31.4% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,600 |
5 | Scooter Gennett | LEFT | 0.427 | 0.349 | 0.313 | 41.0% | 6.6% | 21.7% | 42.0% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B/OF | $3,800 | 2B | $8,100 |
6 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.332 | 0.343 | 0.182 | 29.3% | 11.2% | 23.5% | 44.8% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,000 |
7 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.335 | 0.364 | 0.261 | 40.0% | 10.1% | 23.0% | 44.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $6,800 |
8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.318 | 0.330 | 0.123 | 34.8% | 7.7% | 14.8% | 41.9% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,500 | C | $5,600 |
9 | Sal Romano | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.128 | 0.000 | 50.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | P | $5,500 | P | $5,800 | P | $10,800 |
Elite Plays – Joey Votto and Zack Cozart
Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett
Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
Toronto at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET
Toronto | Cleveland | ||||||||||||||
J.A. Happ | Corey Kluber | ||||||||||||||
LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
CLE-123 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.281 | 0.322 | 32.7% | 6.1% | 18.4% | 48.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.279 | 0.282 | 28.8% | 7.3% | 26.1% | 46.3% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.303 | 0.317 | 31.3% | 7.3% | 21.4% | 41.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.257 | 0.262 | 28.0% | 5.7% | 31.5% | 44.6% |
Pitcher Grind Down
J.A. Happ | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $8,600 | Salary: | $16,800 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 4.28 | 3.18 | 20.5% | 7.5% | 42.5% | 31.6% | 17.8% | |
2017 | 12 | 4.00 | 3.55 | 21.8% | 5.6% | 45.4% | 31.6% | 18.9% | |
L30 | 5 | 5.10 | 2.57 | 14.9% | 7.4% | 43.6% | 34.0% | 23.4% |
J.A. Happ has pitched decently well this season with a 3.55 ERA, 21.8% K rate and 5.6% BB rate through 12 starts. He generates enough ground balls at 45.4% to mostly limit damage. He’s allowing a .281 wOBA vs. LH and .303 wOBA vs. RH hitting. The main issue for Happ is the matchup. He’ll take on an Indians offense that owns a 19.6% K rate, .330 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against RH pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Given where he’s priced, Happ is pretty easy to avoid in this matchup.
Corey Kluber | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $11,300 | Salary: | $12,400 | Salary: | $24,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 32 | 3.50 | 3.14 | 26.4% | 6.6% | 44.5% | 27.6% | 19.9% | |
2017 | 15 | 2.74 | 2.86 | 34.5% | 6.1% | 47.8% | 30.3% | 21.7% | |
L30 | 5 | 2.05 | 1.53 | 42.0% | 5.3% | 47.1% | 24.6% | 21.7% |
Corey Kluber missed his start on Friday due to a stiff neck. That’s something that always concerns me but given that the Indians were cautious with this I trust that there ace is fully ready today. Kluber owns a 2.86 ERA, 34.5% K rate and 6.1% BB rate through 15 starts this season. He owns a 47.8% ground ball rate and is elite in just about any meaningful stat you look at it. Kluber has double-digit strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. He’ll take on a Blue Jays offense that checks in at 20.6% K rate, .311 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against RH pitching.
Quick Breakdown: As long as you trust there there is no lingering neck issue, Kluber is far and away the best pitching option today, even in a tough matchup.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
There are plenty of places to attack. Unless you are just intentionally trying to be contrarian, there’s no reason to use the blue Jays against Kluber. He owns a .279 wOBA vs. LH and .259 wOBA vs. Rh hitting over the past two seasons.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.348 | 0.202 | 33.9% | 13.7% | 22.5% | 32.3% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $7,200 |
2 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.347 | 0.160 | 30.6% | 15.2% | 21.2% | 53.7% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,800 | C | $6,000 |
3 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.343 | 0.204 | 32.4% | 14.0% | 24.4% | 42.9% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,400 | 3B | $7,200 |
4 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.365 | 0.394 | 0.281 | 39.0% | 9.6% | 22.6% | 33.5% | 1B | $3,600 | 1B | $5,200 | 1B | $8,400 |
5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.360 | 0.195 | 38.0% | 6.5% | 22.3% | 47.7% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $6,800 |
6 | Troy Tulowitzki | RIGHT | 0.323 | 0.298 | 0.149 | 32.9% | 6.3% | 14.4% | 46.7% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $5,700 |
7 | Steve Pearce | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.323 | 0.154 | 34.2% | 6.2% | 20.4% | 45.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,000 | 1B | $6,900 |
8 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.276 | 0.310 | 0.126 | 28.5% | 5.5% | 15.1% | 44.5% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $5,600 |
9 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.269 | 0.292 | 0.135 | 30.0% | 7.9% | 18.0% | 44.9% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/SS | $2,800 | 2B | $5,100 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Cleveland
The Indians have a somewhat difficult matchup against J.A. Happ. They have a healthy implied team total here but part of that is backed by Kluber being a heavy favorite. The place to attack Happ is with RH hitters as he owns a .303 wOBA and only a 40% ground ball rate. I suppose that means you could make a case for Francisco Lindor or Edwin Encarnacion here.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Brandon Guyer | RIGHT | 0.248 | 0.273 | 0.117 | 22.7% | 4.5% | 25.4% | 27.9% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,000 | LF | $6,000 |
2 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.368 | 0.364 | 0.200 | 44.4% | 8.7% | 12.8% | 41.2% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,100 |
3 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.286 | 0.289 | 0.071 | 25.0% | 5.7% | 15.1% | 47.6% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,400 |
4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.401 | 0.183 | 38.7% | 19.4% | 21.6% | 46.7% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $4,200 | 1B | $9,300 |
5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.330 | 0.194 | 31.5% | 7.1% | 13.6% | 42.3% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B/3B | $4,300 | IF/OF | $8,800 |
6 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.295 | 0.332 | 0.149 | 33.9% | 11.3% | 6.6% | 54.8% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $8,000 |
7 | Roberto Perez | RIGHT | 0.270 | 0.302 | 0.154 | 29.6% | 16.7% | 27.1% | 44.4% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,300 | C | $5,100 |
8 | Abraham Almonte | SWITCH | 0.204 | 0.203 | 0.000 | 17.4% | 11.1% | 25.0% | 72.7% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,100 | RF | $7,200 |
9 | Giovanny Urshela | RIGHT | 0.233 | 0.402 | 0.091 | 60.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 20.0% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $5,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion
Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
Houston at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET
Houston | Baltimore | ||||||||||||||
Lance McCullers | Dylan Bundy | ||||||||||||||
RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
HOU-112 | 11.0 | ||||||||||||||
Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.265 | 26.4% | 8.0% | 32.1% | 59.8% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.336 | 0.340 | 33.2% | 8.3% | 15.6% | 32.8% | ||
SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.310 | 0.293 | 23.0% | 11.7% | 25.9% | 61.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.316 | 0.313 | 29.6% | 8.2% | 25.1% | 35.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
Lance McCullers | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $10,400 | Salary: | $20,000 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 3.68 | 3.22 | 30.1% | 12.8% | 57.3% | 25.4% | 19.9% | |
2017 | 17 | 3.13 | 3.28 | 27.6% | 7.5% | 63.1% | 23.9% | 22.8% | |
L30 | 4 | 3.45 | 6.05 | 24.2% | 7.7% | 63.3% | 18.0% | 23.0% |
If you don’t want to play Kluber, the other ace you can trust is Lance McCullers. Through 17 starts this season, McCullers owns a 3.28 ERA, 27.6% K rate and 7.5% BB rate. As you can see in the table above, he’s had a rough go of things the last 30 days. II would expect that to normalize though. McCullers is an elite ground ball pitcher at 63.1%. He’ll take on an Orioles offense that checks in at 22.5% K rate, .320 wOBA and 97 wRC against RH pitching.
Quick Breakdown: With the recent price decrease for McCullers, I may actually prefer him over Kluber in this spot. McCullers actually has the slightly better matchup and the numbers aren’t drastically different elsewhere. Both are viable in any format.
Dylan Bundy | |||||||||
FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | |||||||
Salary: | $7,400 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
Salary Rank: | 12 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 30 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 30 | ||||
Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2016 | 14 | 4.23 | 4.02 | 21.9% | 8.9% | 35.9% | 28.0% | 23.6% | |
2017 | 19 | 4.84 | 4.18 | 18.8% | 7.7% | 31.7% | 34.9% | 18.9% | |
L30 | 4 | 4.05 | 6.14 | 24.7% | 7.5% | 32.8% | 39.3% | 11.5% |
Dylan Bundy owns a 4.18 ERA, 18.8% K rate and 7.7% BB rate through 19 starts this season. He only generates ground balls at 31.7% and allows hard contact at 34.9%. We honestly don’t need to spend a lot of time here. He’ll take on an Astros team that checks in at 17.3% K rate, .366 wOBA and .133 wRC+ against RH pitching. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball and not a team you want to mess with.
Quick Breakdown: Bundy can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
Bundy is only allowing a .336 wOBA vs. LH and .316 wOBA vs. RH hitting despite a low amount of ground balls and high amount of hard contact. We can fire away on the Astros stack here with confidence. Everyone batting 1-6 here owns a .195 or higher ISO against RH pitching. I could individually make the case for all six but if I did you might miss Marwin Gonzales .420 wOBA (and .270 ISO) vs. RH pitching. He’s an elite play as are the rest of the top six hitters here.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.391 | 0.375 | 0.273 | 39.0% | 9.1% | 22.1% | 50.0% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $5,400 | RF | $10,800 |
2 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.410 | 0.348 | 0.195 | 27.9% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 49.6% | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $5,300 | 2B | $10,400 |
3 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.373 | 0.347 | 0.226 | 35.0% | 7.9% | 13.1% | 32.7% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $9,200 |
4 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.284 | 0.206 | 33.0% | 8.0% | 19.1% | 45.1% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,700 |
5 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.362 | 0.339 | 0.205 | 37.2% | 1.7% | 10.3% | 41.9% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $9,900 |
6 | Marwin Gonzalez | SWITCH | 0.420 | 0.326 | 0.271 | 33.3% | 10.8% | 20.6% | 43.6% | SS | $3,500 | 3B/OF | $4,500 | 1B | $9,200 |
7 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.322 | 0.152 | 34.8% | 8.5% | 16.4% | 44.1% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,800 | C | $7,200 |
8 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.332 | 0.141 | 31.4% | 9.4% | 17.2% | 42.2% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $7,600 |
9 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.300 | 0.278 | 0.088 | 18.0% | 7.4% | 13.0% | 57.5% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $3,500 | LF | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve
Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel and Brian McCann
Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
Baltimore
The Orioles are another spot I don’t have a lot of interest in. McCullers had a rough go of things the last 30 days but it was more bad luck than anything. The one name I might consider here is Chris Davis. He’s always better a better hitter against ground ball pitchers. That said, he’s unlikely to make my lineup.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
# | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Adam Jones | RIGHT | 0.327 | 0.311 | 0.186 | 29.3% | 4.0% | 17.5% | 45.9% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,400 | CF | $7,600 |
2 | Manny Machado | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.343 | 0.197 | 36.0% | 9.2% | 19.8% | 41.7% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $4,500 | 3B | $7,600 |
3 | Jonathan Schoop | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.309 | 0.215 | 31.2% | 4.0% | 20.7% | 40.2% | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $7,800 |
4 | Chris Davis | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.327 | 0.282 | 43.2% | 12.4% | 38.2% | 33.0% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
5 | Mark Trumbo | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.341 | 0.181 | 30.9% | 9.2% | 20.9% | 42.6% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
6 | Trey Mancini | RIGHT | 0.408 | 0.346 | 0.259 | 34.6% | 6.9% | 25.1% | 52.9% | OF | $3,000 | 1B/OF | $3,800 | 1B | $6,900 |
7 | Caleb Joseph | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.293 | 0.149 | 28.2% | 2.5% | 25.4% | 42.9% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,100 | C | $5,600 |
8 | Ruben Tejada | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.320 | 0.053 | 24.0% | 6.3% | 12.5% | 40.8% | SS | $2,600 | 3B/SS | $3,400 | SS | $6,000 |
9 | Seth Smith | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.347 | 0.190 | 35.2% | 7.7% | 22.3% | 42.8% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $6,800 |