MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 23rd

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Editor’s Note – Page Three (late slate) will be available later today


The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Oakland at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Oakland NY Mets
Article Image Daniel Gossett Article Image Rafael Montero
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.290 25.0% 4.8% 11.3% 60.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.396 0.341 25.3% 13.3% 17.8% 41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.374 0.412 37.4% 2.9% 15.7% 39.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.329 29.0% 13.2% 25.3% 44.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Daniel Gossett
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.60 5.79 14.0% 3.7% 47.4% 32.6% 20.0%
L30 5 4.68 5.27 13.3% 4.2% 50.0% 27.3% 22.2%

Welcome to the Sunday MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule today with 10 included on the early slate (nine on FanDuel) and then five included on the late slate. The way things worked out, nearly all of the good pitching is concentrated on the late slate. The ownership should be pretty spread out today overall except for a small bump to hitters at Coors Field.

We’ll kick things off with Daniel Gossett at the Mets. He’s made seven starts this season allowing a 5.79 ERA, 14% K rate and 3.7% BB rate. Based on his walk rate, you can already tell he has pretty good control which shows in his 47.4% ground ball rate. He’s held LH hitters to a .323 wOBA (60.8% GB rate) while allowing a .374 wOBA to RH hitters (30.8% GB rate).

Quick Breakdown: Gossett will take on a Mets lineup that skews LH. While Gossett has better splits against LH hitters, this will be no easy task. There’s very little upside when you pitch someone with a 14% K rate.

Rafael Montero
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.40 8.05 21.5% 17.2% 35.7% 31.6% 17.5%
2017 5 4.52 5.40 22.2% 11.6% 46.3% 25.5% 16.3%
L30 3 3.93 3.86 24.1% 7.2% 43.4% 19.6% 16.1%

Rafael Montero owns a 5.4 ERA, 22.2% K rate and 11.6% BB rate through five starts this season. He’s generating a decent amount of ground balls at 46.3% while limiting hard contact to 25.5%. When you put it all together, he’s allowing a .396 wOBA vs. LH and .344 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The good news for Montero is that he’ll take on an Athletics offense that ranks second in K% vs. RH at 25.4%. They also own a .321 wOBA and 103 wRC+ though.

Quick Breakdown: With limited pitching available on the early slate, Montero makes quite a bit of sense as an SP2 or low-end SP1 in on single-pitcher sites. He’ll obviously need to control the walks but the bump in strikeouts he gets from Oakland plus his own 22.2% K rate make him viable here.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

While Montero is playable, so are the Athletics against him. He owns a .396 wOBA vs. LH and .344 vs. RH hitting. My preferred option here would be Matt Joyce who owns a .327 wOBA an d.208 ISO vs. RH pitching. Beyond that, I don’t hate Marcus Semien for salary relief on FD based on the gap between his wOBA an xwOBA he’s been unlucky. You could also fire up Yonder Alonso or Khris Davis as well as they both hit RH pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.327 0.346 0.208 31.7% 14.0% 20.4% 33.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 RF $7,600
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.255 0.321 0.111 24.3% 15.2% 27.3% 32.4% SS $2,300 SS $3,000 SS $7,200
3 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.400 0.386 0.288 32.7% 14.3% 24.3% 29.6% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $7,600
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.373 0.390 0.304 42.3% 10.0% 32.3% 39.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,400 LF $9,000
5 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.348 0.359 0.195 36.4% 8.8% 17.3% 28.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,200 2B $6,400
6 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.359 0.329 0.111 43.5% 17.1% 22.4% 43.5% C $2,400 C $2,500 C $5,200
7 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.338 0.302 0.273 39.3% 8.2% 32.7% 28.6% 3B $2,200 3B $2,000 3B $3,900
8 Jaycob Brugman LEFT 0.310 0.285 0.077 19.4% 13.2% 23.6% 47.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,000 CF $3,900
9 Daniel Gossett RIGHT 0.876 0.082 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% P $6,500 P $5,400 P $12,400

Elite Plays – Matt Joyce

Secondary Plays – Khris Davis or Yonder Alonso

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Mets

The Mets have a somewhat tough task against Daniel Gossett as he owns a high ground ball rate against LH hitters at 60.8%. They have a healthy implied team total that which shouldn’t scare us too far away. It’s also possible that Gossett’s reverse splits may not end up holding up once we have a large enough sample. The data in the chart below would tell you to play Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto and Lucas Duda but my favorite option here is Yoenis Cespedes who owns a decent .328 wOBA vs. RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.407 0.389 0.277 42.0% 14.7% 22.7% 37.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 LF $10,000
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.318 0.357 0.171 34.6% 11.2% 14.4% 45.5% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $4,000 SS $7,200
3 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.392 0.377 0.299 44.3% 9.9% 21.6% 33.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,200
4 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.157 41.1% 7.2% 15.1% 38.3% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 LF $7,200
5 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.393 0.402 0.303 44.3% 15.1% 22.2% 26.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,000 1B $8,700
6 T.J. Rivera RIGHT 0.338 0.301 0.151 29.8% 3.8% 10.7% 37.7% 3B $2,300 1B/3B $3,600 3B $6,600
7 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.285 0.284 0.159 27.1% 7.0% 12.2% 36.9% SS $2,800 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,800
8 Rene Rivera RIGHT 0.284 0.328 0.108 31.7% 5.8% 24.8% 42.0% C $2,500 C $2,700 C $4,800
9 Rafael Montero RIGHT 0.000 0.077 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 100.0% P $6,400 P $6,000 P $14,400

Elite Plays – Yoenis Cespedes

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce and Michael Conforto

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.


Texas at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Texas Tampa Bay
Article Image Tyson Ross Article Image Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -180 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.372 32.1% 9.3% 17.3% 46.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.287 30.7% 7.1% 23.5% 36.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 0.326 30.2% 12.5% 17.5% 32.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.336 0.348 37.8% 7.7% 19.2% 33.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyson Ross
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $7,100 Salary: $14,000
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 3.64 11.81 18.5% 3.7% 47.4% 42.1% 21.1%
2017 6 5.54 7.22 17.2% 12.5% 37.2% 28.7% 12.6%
L30 5 5.69 8.22 16.0% 12.3% 36.1% 31.5% 15.1%

In six starts this season, Tyson Ross owns a 7.22 ERA, 17.2% K rate and 12.5% BB rate. He’s allowing a .313 wOBA vs. LH and .397 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. Coming back from injury, ground balls have all but disappeared for Ross at 37.2%. The one positive here is that the Rays own a 24.4% K rate vs. RH pitching. That comes with the disclaimer that they also own a .334 wOBA 111 wrC+ and .201 ISO.

Quick Breakdown: The lack of ground balls and increase in walks this season have be a bit concerned about Ross. While I enjoy picking on the strikeout-heavy Rays as much as anyone, this isn’t the idea spot to use Ross right now.

Jake Odorizzi
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,700 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 17 4.75 4.37 20.1% 8.4% 30.6% 37.5% 15.8%
L30 4 5.14 6.23 19.0% 8.4% 22.4% 48.5% 19.1%

Jake Odorizzi has looked positively average this season with a 4.37 ERA, 20.1% K rate and 8.4% BB rate. What you hate to see from Odorizzi is a 30.6% ground ball rate and 37.5% hard contact rate. That said, pitching is ugly on the early slate. Odorizzi will take on a Rangers team that owns a 23.7% K rate, .319 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: On this particular slate, Odorizzi is a strong SP2 play and a decent pay even on single-pitcher sites. He’s likely to give up a home run or two but hopefully the increased strikeouts will make up for it here.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The way to attack Odorizzi is with RH hitters as he owns a .277 wOBA vs. LH and .336 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Those are of course reverse splits which don’t leave us a ton to work with. I would primarily look at the RH power here which leads me to Adrian Beltre. He owns a .375 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Outside of Beltre, nothing really stands out to me on a slate with plenty of poor pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.342 0.384 0.181 41.5% 12.6% 20.4% 47.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $8,700
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.340 0.305 0.158 29.0% 6.6% 17.4% 48.9% SS $2,700 SS $4,200 SS $8,400
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.336 0.337 0.201 34.2% 10.0% 19.2% 37.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.375 0.342 0.266 36.4% 9.4% 10.8% 49.1% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 3B $7,200
5 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.296 0.313 0.233 37.2% 7.8% 30.7% 36.5% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
6 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.300 0.297 0.225 36.8% 4.4% 24.4% 39.1% 2B $2,600 2B $3,500 2B $6,600
7 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.287 0.300 0.102 24.3% 6.1% 11.7% 52.6% C $2,200 C $3,100 C $5,700
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.351 0.342 0.232 42.2% 10.4% 30.7% 40.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
9 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.348 0.340 0.317 43.1% 14.9% 35.7% 26.7% 1B $2,500 1B/3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adrian Beltre

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Tampa Bay

The Rays are one of several teams that get the sneaky stack label today. Tyson Ross is allowing a .397 wOBA vs. RH over the past two seasons. Steven Souza has a .393 wOBA vs. RH pitching. There’s also Corey Dickerson and Logan Morrison who each own a hard hit rate over 37.5% against RH pitching. All three are worthy of consideration as one-off plays or as part of a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.393 0.389 0.303 39.5% 12.5% 28.6% 40.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 RF $8,700
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.366 0.330 0.233 37.5% 5.8% 21.0% 37.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 LF $8,100
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.343 0.314 0.186 31.7% 4.9% 14.7% 43.2% 3B $3,400 3B $3,800 3B $8,000
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.397 0.409 0.338 44.6% 14.7% 21.9% 32.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $9,000
5 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.255 0.349 0.200 48.0% 5.9% 17.6% 48.0% C $2,700 C $3,200 C $6,400
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.293 0.317 0.092 34.9% 20.8% 25.3% 56.6% 2B $3,000 2B $3,100 SS $6,800
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.319 0.312 0.168 46.7% 5.4% 32.7% 47.0% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $4,800
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.325 0.263 0.080 18.3% 11.7% 15.6% 54.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,100 CF $7,600
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.255 0.274 0.051 25.6% 1.0% 16.2% 51.9% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,100

Elite Plays – Steven Souza

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison and Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.


Miami at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Miami Cincinnati
Article Image Tom Koehler Article Image Sal Romano
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CIN-105 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.359 0.361 30.9% 13.8% 19.4% 37.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.433 0.363 50.0% 17.2% 24.1% 31.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.327 29.1% 7.9% 18.2% 45.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.433 0.305 27.3% 16.1% 12.9% 65.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tom Koehler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.85 4.33 19.0% 10.7% 42.2% 28.6% 21.0%
2017 11 5.28 7.92 18.2% 11.7% 38.3% 34.8% 13.3%
L30 3 5.43 10.80 19.0% 13.8% 42.1% 26.3% 21.1%

Tom Koehler owns a 7.92 ERA, 18.2% K rate and 11.7% BB rate through 11 starts this year. He’s allowing a .359 wOBA vs. LH and.325 wOBA vs. RH hitting. He only generates ground balls at 38.3% while allowing 34.8% hard contact. The over/under is set at 11 here as neither pitcher is all that great. Koeher will take on a Reds offense that checks in at 21.2% K rate, .328 wOBA and 98 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer not to pick on a sneaky good Reds offense when I don’t have to. There are better options than Koehler on this slate.

Sal Romano
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 5.95 7.50 18.3% 16.7% 50.0% 36.8% 18.4%
L30 2 4.91 8.00 21.4% 14.3% 61.5% 37.0% 11.1%

Sal Romano has made just three MLB starts. He owns a 7.5 ERA, 18.3% K rate and 16.7% BB rate. The lone bright spot here is a 50% ground ball rate but Romano is still getting crushed with a hard hit rate of 36.8%. When you put all that together you get a .433 wOBA both vs. LH and RH hitters. He’ll take on a Marlins offense that checks in at 20.3% K rate, .319 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Romano hasn’t shown any control at the MLB level. I have no interest here in a game with an over/under of 11.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

We can fire away with hitters from either side of the plate. It is worth noting that Romano has struck out LH hitters at 24.1% compared to 12.9% vs. RH hitters. Giancarlo Stanton is an elite play here against a young pitcher without great command. Dee Gordon also gets a slight bump against a pitcher with a 16.7% BB rate. Of course, Christian Yelich and Justin Bour are playable vs. any RH pitcher as they smash RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.312 0.270 0.071 18.5% 5.2% 13.1% 56.9% 2B $2,900 2B $3,800 2B $7,800
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.387 0.371 0.299 37.2% 9.7% 25.6% 42.9% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.342 0.349 0.129 37.4% 11.4% 19.1% 57.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 CF $9,300
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.395 0.377 0.271 44.8% 7.6% 22.7% 45.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,600
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.364 0.392 0.254 44.8% 11.0% 20.9% 40.1% 1B $3,300 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.318 0.320 0.122 29.4% 5.9% 16.1% 51.3% C $2,800 C $3,200 C $7,200
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.280 0.278 0.144 32.9% 4.5% 18.4% 38.4% 3B $2,400 3B $3,700 3B $6,900
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.387 0.337 0.063 15.2% 9.1% 7.3% 44.4% SS $2,400 3B/SS $2,700 2B $5,400
9 Tom Koehler RIGHT 0.000 0.022 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 76.9% 100.0% P $5,800 P $5,900 P $10,200

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour and Christian Yelich

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Cincinnati

The Reds are plenty stackable here against Tom Koehler as he owns a .359 wOBA vs. LH and.325 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Joey Votto and Zack Cozart are the two top options with Votto owning a .424 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Scooter Gennett, Eugenio Suarez and Billy Hamilton are in play as part of any Reds stack as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.301 0.263 0.083 16.4% 9.2% 20.1% 45.4% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.387 0.313 0.234 29.0% 12.9% 17.6% 40.7% SS $3,300 SS $4,300 SS $9,300
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.424 0.429 0.283 35.2% 17.2% 10.6% 34.7% 1B $3,800 1B $5,100 1B $10,400
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.338 0.295 0.241 34.5% 5.5% 27.3% 31.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,600
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.427 0.349 0.313 41.0% 6.6% 21.7% 42.0% 2B $3,000 2B/OF $3,800 2B $8,100
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.332 0.343 0.182 29.3% 11.2% 23.5% 44.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
7 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.335 0.364 0.261 40.0% 10.1% 23.0% 44.8% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $6,800
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.318 0.330 0.123 34.8% 7.7% 14.8% 41.9% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $5,600
9 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.000 0.128 0.000 50.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% P $5,500 P $5,800 P $10,800

Elite Plays – Joey Votto and Zack Cozart

Secondary Plays – Scooter Gennett

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.


Toronto at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Cleveland
Article Image J.A. Happ Article Image Corey Kluber
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-123 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.281 0.322 32.7% 6.1% 18.4% 48.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.282 28.8% 7.3% 26.1% 46.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.317 31.3% 7.3% 21.4% 41.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.257 0.262 28.0% 5.7% 31.5% 44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.28 3.18 20.5% 7.5% 42.5% 31.6% 17.8%
2017 12 4.00 3.55 21.8% 5.6% 45.4% 31.6% 18.9%
L30 5 5.10 2.57 14.9% 7.4% 43.6% 34.0% 23.4%

J.A. Happ has pitched decently well this season with a 3.55 ERA, 21.8% K rate and 5.6% BB rate through 12 starts. He generates enough ground balls at 45.4% to mostly limit damage. He’s allowing a .281 wOBA vs. LH and .303 wOBA vs. RH hitting. The main issue for Happ is the matchup. He’ll take on an Indians offense that owns a 19.6% K rate, .330 wOBA and 104 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given where he’s priced, Happ is pretty easy to avoid in this matchup.

Corey Kluber
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,300 Salary: $12,400 Salary: $24,000
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 44.5% 27.6% 19.9%
2017 15 2.74 2.86 34.5% 6.1% 47.8% 30.3% 21.7%
L30 5 2.05 1.53 42.0% 5.3% 47.1% 24.6% 21.7%

Corey Kluber missed his start on Friday due to a stiff neck. That’s something that always concerns me but given that the Indians were cautious with this I trust that there ace is fully ready today. Kluber owns a 2.86 ERA, 34.5% K rate and 6.1% BB rate through 15 starts this season. He owns a 47.8% ground ball rate and is elite in just about any meaningful stat you look at it. Kluber has double-digit strikeouts in seven of his last nine starts. He’ll take on a Blue Jays offense that checks in at 20.6% K rate, .311 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: As long as you trust there there is no lingering neck issue, Kluber is far and away the best pitching option today, even in a tough matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

There are plenty of places to attack. Unless you are just intentionally trying to be contrarian, there’s no reason to use the blue Jays against Kluber. He owns a .279 wOBA vs. LH and .259 wOBA vs. Rh hitting over the past two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.351 0.348 0.202 33.9% 13.7% 22.5% 32.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 RF $7,200
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.348 0.347 0.160 30.6% 15.2% 21.2% 53.7% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $6,000
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.353 0.343 0.204 32.4% 14.0% 24.4% 42.9% 3B $3,500 3B $4,400 3B $7,200
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.365 0.394 0.281 39.0% 9.6% 22.6% 33.5% 1B $3,600 1B $5,200 1B $8,400
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.303 0.360 0.195 38.0% 6.5% 22.3% 47.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,700 1B $6,800
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.323 0.298 0.149 32.9% 6.3% 14.4% 46.7% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $5,700
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.341 0.323 0.154 34.2% 6.2% 20.4% 45.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 1B $6,900
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.276 0.310 0.126 28.5% 5.5% 15.1% 44.5% OF $2,400 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.269 0.292 0.135 30.0% 7.9% 18.0% 44.9% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland

The Indians have a somewhat difficult matchup against J.A. Happ. They have a healthy implied team total here but part of that is backed by Kluber being a heavy favorite. The place to attack Happ is with RH hitters as he owns a .303 wOBA and only a 40% ground ball rate. I suppose that means you could make a case for Francisco Lindor or Edwin Encarnacion here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.248 0.273 0.117 22.7% 4.5% 25.4% 27.9% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 LF $6,000
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.368 0.364 0.200 44.4% 8.7% 12.8% 41.2% SS $3,500 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.286 0.289 0.071 25.0% 5.7% 15.1% 47.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 LF $8,400
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.383 0.401 0.183 38.7% 19.4% 21.6% 46.7% 1B $3,500 1B $4,200 1B $9,300
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.351 0.330 0.194 31.5% 7.1% 13.6% 42.3% 2B $3,700 2B/3B $4,300 IF/OF $8,800
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.295 0.332 0.149 33.9% 11.3% 6.6% 54.8% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $8,000
7 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.270 0.302 0.154 29.6% 16.7% 27.1% 44.4% C $2,200 C $2,300 C $5,100
8 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.204 0.203 0.000 17.4% 11.1% 25.0% 72.7% OF $2,100 OF $3,100 RF $7,200
9 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.233 0.402 0.091 60.0% 8.3% 8.3% 20.0% 3B $2,200 3B $2,800 3B $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor and Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.


Houston at Baltimore – 1:35 PM ET

Houston Baltimore
Article Image Lance McCullers Article Image Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-112 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.265 26.4% 8.0% 32.1% 59.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.340 33.2% 8.3% 15.6% 32.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.293 23.0% 11.7% 25.9% 61.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.313 29.6% 8.2% 25.1% 35.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance McCullers
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,400 Salary: $20,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 5 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 3.68 3.22 30.1% 12.8% 57.3% 25.4% 19.9%
2017 17 3.13 3.28 27.6% 7.5% 63.1% 23.9% 22.8%
L30 4 3.45 6.05 24.2% 7.7% 63.3% 18.0% 23.0%

If you don’t want to play Kluber, the other ace you can trust is Lance McCullers. Through 17 starts this season, McCullers owns a 3.28 ERA, 27.6% K rate and 7.5% BB rate. As you can see in the table above, he’s had a rough go of things the last 30 days. II would expect that to normalize though. McCullers is an elite ground ball pitcher at 63.1%. He’ll take on an Orioles offense that checks in at 22.5% K rate, .320 wOBA and 97 wRC against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: With the recent price decrease for McCullers, I may actually prefer him over Kluber in this spot. McCullers actually has the slightly better matchup and the numbers aren’t drastically different elsewhere. Both are viable in any format.

Dylan Bundy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,400 Salary: $12,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 19 4.84 4.18 18.8% 7.7% 31.7% 34.9% 18.9%
L30 4 4.05 6.14 24.7% 7.5% 32.8% 39.3% 11.5%

Dylan Bundy owns a 4.18 ERA, 18.8% K rate and 7.7% BB rate through 19 starts this season. He only generates ground balls at 31.7% and allows hard contact at 34.9%. We honestly don’t need to spend a lot of time here. He’ll take on an Astros team that checks in at 17.3% K rate, .366 wOBA and .133 wRC+ against RH pitching. The Astros are one of the best offenses in baseball and not a team you want to mess with.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy can safely be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Bundy is only allowing a .336 wOBA vs. LH and .316 wOBA vs. RH hitting despite a low amount of ground balls and high amount of hard contact. We can fire away on the Astros stack here with confidence. Everyone batting 1-6 here owns a .195 or higher ISO against RH pitching. I could individually make the case for all six but if I did you might miss Marwin Gonzales .420 wOBA (and .270 ISO) vs. RH pitching. He’s an elite play as are the rest of the top six hitters here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.391 0.375 0.273 39.0% 9.1% 22.1% 50.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,800
2 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.410 0.348 0.195 27.9% 8.8% 12.3% 49.6% 2B $4,100 2B $5,300 2B $10,400
3 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.373 0.347 0.226 35.0% 7.9% 13.1% 32.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,300 RF $9,200
4 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.317 0.284 0.206 33.0% 8.0% 19.1% 45.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 RF $8,700
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.362 0.339 0.205 37.2% 1.7% 10.3% 41.9% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $9,900
6 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.420 0.326 0.271 33.3% 10.8% 20.6% 43.6% SS $3,500 3B/OF $4,500 1B $9,200
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.311 0.322 0.152 34.8% 8.5% 16.4% 44.1% C $2,700 C $3,800 C $7,200
8 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.303 0.332 0.141 31.4% 9.4% 17.2% 42.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,600
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.300 0.278 0.088 18.0% 7.4% 13.0% 57.5% OF $2,300 OF $3,500 LF $6,600

Elite Plays – Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, George Springer, Yuli Gurriel and Brian McCann

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Baltimore

The Orioles are another spot I don’t have a lot of interest in. McCullers had a rough go of things the last 30 days but it was more bad luck than anything. The one name I might consider here is Chris Davis. He’s always better a better hitter against ground ball pitchers. That said, he’s unlikely to make my lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.327 0.311 0.186 29.3% 4.0% 17.5% 45.9% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 CF $7,600
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.314 0.343 0.197 36.0% 9.2% 19.8% 41.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 3B $7,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.363 0.309 0.215 31.2% 4.0% 20.7% 40.2% 2B $3,500 2B $4,400 2B $7,800
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.327 0.327 0.282 43.2% 12.4% 38.2% 33.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 IF/OF $7,200
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.325 0.341 0.181 30.9% 9.2% 20.9% 42.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,200
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.408 0.346 0.259 34.6% 6.9% 25.1% 52.9% OF $3,000 1B/OF $3,800 1B $6,900
7 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.325 0.293 0.149 28.2% 2.5% 25.4% 42.9% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $5,600
8 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.279 0.320 0.053 24.0% 6.3% 12.5% 40.8% SS $2,600 3B/SS $3,400 SS $6,000
9 Seth Smith LEFT 0.332 0.347 0.190 35.2% 7.7% 22.3% 42.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Editor’s Note – Page Three (late slate) will be available later today

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.