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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 25th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-06-26 01:45:45

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Minnesota at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
minnesotamlb Ervin Santana clevelandmlb Josh Tomlin
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.270 0.296 26.9% 7.5% 16.9% 47.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.321 37.6% 2.2% 15.5% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.311 28.7% 8.1% 21.8% 38.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.347 32.3% 2.8% 17.2% 39.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 14 4.90 2.56 18.4% 9.2% 44.0% 24.6% 21.6%

Welcome to the Sunday MLB Grind Down. As usual we have 15 games on the schedule today split into nine early games and six late games. The way things lined up, a lot of teams ended up pitching an ace or one of their better pitchers yesterday. That’s leaving us a bit light at starting pitcher today. There are still some options worth using though. We have a lot to get to, so we’ll dive right in.

Through 15 starts this season, Ervin Santana owns a 2.97 ERA, 18.6% K rate and 9.1% BB rate. What’s interesting with Santana is how he’s doing it. He owns a 4.88 SIERA. The difference between his SIERA and ERA is largely his 84.7% LOB rate. He also owns an insanely low .190 BABIP. Santana does generate a decent amount of ground balls at 44.4% but he’s truly pitching over his head right now. Regression for Santana could be coming as soon as today. The Indians own a 20.1% K rate, .333 wOBA and 105 wRC+ against RH pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I generally prefer not to use pitchers against the Indians when I can avoid it. That’s especially true for someone like Ervin Santana. His numbers from last season paint a more accurate picture of the pitcher that he is. I expect Santana to draw some ownership in both cash games and tournaments but I’ll personally be fading.

Josh Tomlin
josh-tomlin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.24 4.40 16.3% 2.8% 43.8% 33.9% 16.4%
2017 13 4.25 5.83 16.8% 2.0% 40.8% 36.5% 13.1%

Through 14 starts, Josh Tomin owns a 6.07 ERA, 17.2% K rate and elite 1.9% BB rate. Other than the BB rate, Tomlin can best be described as average in every way. He owns a 40.9% ground ball rate on the season and .327 wOBA too LH and .386 wOBA to RH hitters. The Twins owns a 21.9% K rate, .325 wOBA and 100 wRC+ against RH pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Considering Tomlin’s skill set he can safely be avoided in this matchup. a 16.1% K rate really isn’t enough to salvage if things go poorly early on.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Given that Tomliin owns a 327 wOBA to LH and .386 wOBA to RH hitters this season, we can target him with batters from either side of the plate. Brian Dozier hit the go-ahead home run last night and makes the most sense here. He owns a .347 wOBA vs. RH pitching. If Miguel Sano ii in the lineup, he’s also worth a look as he owns a .353 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Beyond that, Joe Mauer and Max Kepler could help fill out a Twins stack but there’s plenty of hitting on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.347 0.325 0.238 33.2% 9.5% 19.6% 37.5% 2B $3,200 2B $5,000 2B $9,600
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.343 0.391 0.137 34.7% 13.5% 15.3% 47.3% 1B $3,500 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.353 0.351 0.238 44.4% 11.2% 36.6% 33.4% 3B $4,000 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.324 0.215 35.5% 9.8% 18.2% 42.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.286 0.302 0.115 27.4% 5.4% 16.9% 38.6% SS $3,200 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.322 0.288 0.202 33.7% 4.6% 23.2% 44.5% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.306 0.298 0.109 24.4% 7.8% 13.3% 36.0% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.325 0.326 0.189 37.1% 12.6% 31.7% 41.3% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,600
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.234 0.162 23.2% 6.0% 35.5% 38.8% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer and Miguel Sano

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Cleveland

The Indians are a sneaky stack today after getting mostly shut down by Kyle Gibson yesterday. Ervin Santana does generate a lot of ground balls at 44.1% though. If you want to bet on Santana regression, the best place to do it is in tournaments. The main options that stand out here are Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion. They al hit RH pitching with with Encarnacion and Ramirez over .360 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.344 0.343 0.166 27.0% 9.0% 12.7% 45.8% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.343 0.345 0.196 38.2% 9.2% 19.5% 37.4% 2B $3,400 2B $4,000 2B $7,600
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.363 0.340 0.174 28.0% 7.5% 9.7% 38.0% 3B $4,400 2B/3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,200
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.363 0.381 0.252 37.6% 10.9% 20.6% 38.2% 1B $4,000 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.346 0.314 0.199 29.2% 5.3% 16.5% 34.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.374 0.398 0.264 37.5% 15.1% 16.9% 35.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.223 0.267 0.139 30.0% 5.1% 26.3% 39.1% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.320 0.331 0.118 32.1% 9.2% 19.5% 36.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.396 0.396 0.296 41.7% 12.9% 29.0% 42.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 CF $8,000

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez and Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
baltimoremlb Chris Tillman tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -160 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.338 30.0% 12.0% 20.1% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.282 30.5% 6.4% 25.0% 38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.345 33.3% 7.4% 17.3% 40.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.346 36.4% 7.9% 18.8% 34.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Tillman
chris-tillman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 8 5.49 8.07 14.4% 10.5% 43.3% 33.3% 22.2%

Whatever progress Chris Tillman made last season seems all but washed away this year. He had a 3.77 ERA in 300 starts. This season he owns an 8.39 ERA, 12.9% K rate and 10.9% BB rate. The drop in strikeouts is accompanied by a drop in SwStr% which is all the way down to 6.9%. There doesn’t appear to be an end in site for Tillman. He’s made it into the sixth inning in just two of nine starts this season. He owns a .464 wOBA vs. LH and a .396 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The Rays are a decent matchup for RH pitching though as they own a 24.9% K rate, .343 wOBA and 116 wRC+

Quick Breakdown: Even with a good matchup against the Rays, I need to see Tillman correct his issues before I’m willing to recommend him in any format. He’s not generating any swinging strikes right now which leaves him almost entirely reliant on getting hitters out with balls in play.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,900 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 12 4.48 3.77 21.2% 8.1% 34.8% 35.0% 13.1%

Jake Odorizzi is one of the top pitching options today on a slate that lacks a lot of sure fire options. Odorizzi owns a 3.78 ERA through 13 starts this season along with a 20.5% K rate and 8.3% BB rate. He does allow his fair share of fly balls at 44.3% though. This season, he’s allowing a .336 wOBA vs. LH hitters and .298 vs. RH hitters. He draws a matchup with an Orioles team that owns a 22.8% K rate, .318 wOBA and 95 wRC+ vs. RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi probably isn’t the top ace on the slate but he’s near the top of the short list of viable SP2 options. He’s safe enough to play a single-pitcher site in tournaments and in play in all formats as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The way to attack Jake Odoizzi is with RH hitters. He owns a .346 wOBA, 36.4% hard contact and an 18.8% K rate over the last two seasons. Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo are the top options here. Machado owns a .340 wOBA against RH pitching while Trumbo checks in at .371. In a small, sample, Trey Mancini has also hit RH pitching well with a .411 wOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.337 0.368 0.173 33.2% 11.0% 21.2% 45.9% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.354 0.237 35.4% 6.7% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,600 3B $4,600 3B $9,000
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.339 0.195 32.2% 5.3% 16.2% 43.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 CF $7,500
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.377 0.259 36.9% 8.6% 23.4% 39.5% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.340 0.312 0.203 29.2% 3.4% 19.9% 42.3% 2B $3,400 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.411 0.376 0.272 36.5% 7.8% 26.7% 48.6% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.142 33.2% 6.2% 26.6% 41.2% C $2,700 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.115 28.8% 9.2% 14.4% 51.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 IF/OF $4,800
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.152 0.241 0.042 15.8% 5.7% 20.8% 41.7% SS $2,100 3B/SS $2,300 SS $4,500

Elite Plays – Manny Machado and Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Tampa Bay

This season, Chris Tillman owns a .464 wOBA vs. LH and a .396 wOBA vs. RH hitters. The Rays have one of the higher team totals on the slate. We can confidently play the Rays power hitters from either side of the plate. The short list starts with Corey Dickerson and Evan Longoria who both homered last night. I would also include Logan Morrison who owns a 39.6% hard contact rate against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.362 0.272 0.148 22.2% 10.1% 19.8% 61.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.354 0.322 0.271 32.8% 6.2% 21.8% 34.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 LF $9,300
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.349 0.234 35.2% 6.1% 19.7% 35.8% 3B $3,300 3B $4,100 3B $8,100
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.345 0.368 0.245 39.6% 11.0% 22.9% 39.7% 1B $3,600 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.329 0.205 32.3% 10.3% 30.8% 40.7% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
6 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.347 0.345 0.158 35.6% 6.4% 16.1% 55.2% C $2,500 C $3,500 C $6,900
7 Shane Peterson LEFT 0.318 0.214 0.152 26.1% 2.9% 28.6% 39.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,300 LF $4,500
8 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.302 0.200 43.9% 4.4% 31.8% 43.8% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.289 0.276 0.118 29.9% 9.5% 25.7% 52.3% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,000 LF $4,500

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson and Evan Longoria

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Miami
cubsmlb Mike Montgomery miamimlb Edinson Volquez
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.313 27.5% 8.5% 21.2% 56.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.369 35.5% 11.7% 17.1% 45.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.300 0.319 27.7% 11.1% 21.0% 58.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.321 0.313 28.2% 7.9% 18.8% 55.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Montgomery
mike-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 7 3.57 2.52 22.2% 9.2% 58.4% 25.6% 18.3%
2017 2 4.65 2.56 18.5% 12.7% 57.6% 32.0% 21.9%

In three starts this season, Mike Montgomery owns a 2.26 ERA, 18.5% K rate and 12.3% ground ball rate. He’s shown elite control with a 61% ground ball rate. The Marlins are a team that is often mentioned as bad but they do own a 20.33% K rate, .330 wOBA and 103 wRC+ against LH pitching. This often is closer to league average than many will give them credit for. It truly speaks to how weak pitching is on this slate though that we’ll consider Montgomery here. His ground ball tendencies should serve him well at a very forgiving Marlins park.

Quick Breakdown: It really speaks to the status of pitching on this slate that Mike Montgomery is an option. He’s priced fairly for his skill set and this matchup. He’s best utilized as an SP2 but can be played in any format.

Edinson Volquez
edinson-volquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 4.72 5.37 16.3% 8.9% 51.2% 31.7% 19.5%
2017 13 4.81 3.72 22.2% 12.8% 48.4% 33.2% 19.9%

Through 14 starts this season, Edinson Volquz owns a 4.19 ERA, 21.8% K rate and 13.3% BB rate. For the most part, Volquez is a ground ball pitcher with a 47.5% rate. He’s best attacked with LH hitters as he owns a .351 wOBA vs. LH compared to .271 vs. RH hitters. He also sees his ground ball rate drop to 40% against LH hitters. He’ll take on a Cubs offense that owns a 22.3% K rate, .311 wOBA and 89 wRC+ against RH pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: While the Cubs offense is not as fierce as last season, there are still some good hitters here. Volquez is a long shot play as a tournament SP2 but it’s not something I would personally do.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

As I mentioned above, we want to attack Volquez with Cubs LH hitters. His ground ball rate drops to 40% and he owns a .351 wOBA. The three hitters expected to bat at the top of the order are the best options here. Anthony Rizzo has been on fire from the lleadoff spot and owns a .391 wOBA vs. Rh pitching. Ian Happ checks in with a .370 wOBA and gets the preferred split against Volquez. Kris Bryant gets a mention here because he has excellent ability at limiting ground balls to just 30.9%

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.391 0.384 0.254 37.0% 12.9% 15.5% 37.2% 1B $4,400 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.374 0.350 0.239 36.4% 10.2% 22.8% 30.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
3 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.370 0.355 0.333 35.3% 11.2% 30.3% 45.1% 2B $3,600 2B/OF $4,500 IF/OF $8,700
4 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.300 0.292 0.161 28.3% 7.5% 22.6% 42.9% SS $3,100 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
5 Miguel Montero LEFT 0.319 0.309 0.173 31.8% 13.7% 21.3% 45.7% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,400
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.291 0.262 0.156 28.7% 2.0% 26.0% 45.5% 2B $2,500 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,200
7 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.280 0.265 0.092 29.0% 5.0% 18.0% 53.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Mike Montgomery LEFT 0.055 0.139 0.000 44.4% 0.0% 47.1% 71.4% P $7,400 P $6,800 P $13,600
9 Jon Jay LEFT 0.314 0.298 0.102 29.3% 5.0% 21.6% 51.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo and Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Miami

We need to be carefu using Marlins against Montgomery as he owns a 61% ground ball rate this season. Montgomery isn’t unhittable though as he does own a .300 wOBA vs. RH hitting. A one-off pay such as Giancarlo Stanton or Martin Prado could make sense here. They each own a wOBA over .430 against LH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.258 0.211 0.041 12.7% 1.9% 14.3% 63.9% 2B $3,200 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.434 0.413 0.368 52.1% 14.7% 25.0% 46.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.311 0.325 0.120 28.4% 6.0% 20.6% 63.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,400 CF $6,600
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.377 0.409 0.244 45.1% 9.2% 18.9% 40.6% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.410 0.351 0.301 36.2% 7.6% 32.9% 46.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.317 0.309 0.180 28.4% 8.7% 20.8% 44.1% C $2,900 C $3,800 C $7,500
7 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.438 0.400 0.131 36.1% 12.5% 10.6% 41.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.273 0.217 0.086 24.0% 0.0% 30.6% 62.5% SS $2,400 SS $2,400 SS $4,800
9 Edinson Volquez RIGHT 0.000 0.023 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 100.0% P $7,400 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton and Martin Prado

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Milwaukee at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Milwaukee Atlanta
milwaukeemlb Zach Davies atlantamlb Julio Teheran
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-125 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.319 33.9% 7.1% 17.4% 43.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.347 0.343 35.2% 10.3% 14.7% 35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.314 32.9% 5.6% 19.4% 49.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.257 0.271 30.1% 3.0% 25.6% 41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
zach-davies-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.06 3.97 19.8% 5.6% 45.5% 33.8% 19.7%
2017 14 4.85 4.91 15.6% 8.0% 49.6% 32.5% 19.9%

Through 15 starts this season, Zach Davies owns a 5.4 ERA, 15.5% K rate and 7.6% BB rate. Davies is generating a decent amount of ground balls at 49.4% this season. He’s allowing a .379 wOBA vs. LH and a .368 wOBA vs. RH hitters this season. Davies will take on a Braves team that owns a 19.5% K rate, .320 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against Rh pitching. This is a slightly below average offense that doesn’t strikeout as much as we would like.

Quick Breakdown: The main problem with attacking the Braves is that they only have a 19.5% K rate. Using a low strikeout arm like Davies in this matchup doesn’t really make any sense.

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 3.21 22.0% 5.4% 39.1% 33.1% 17.7%
2017 14 5.22 4.86 16.3% 9.2% 36.7% 31.6% 22.3%

Through 15 starts this season, Julio Teheran owns a 4.76 ERA, 15.7% K rate and 8.5% BB rate. The drop in strikeouts here is accompanied by a slight drop in SwStr% which is down to 8.2% from a career average of 10.3%. The main thing to be aware with here is that Teheran is a different pitcher against LH hitters. He owns a .369 wOBA vs. LH and a .301 wOBA vs. RH hitters this season. At home against LH hitters, Teheran has seen his wOBA balloon to .429 while his strikeouts have dipped to 10.4%. The Brewers are a team that can help with strikeouts though. They own a 24.6% K rate, .328 wOBA and 96 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: I think Teheran is going to draw the widest range of reactions from DFS players. On one hand, Teheran has some name value and gets a good matchup with the Brewers. On the other hand, the thing he struggles with (LH) happens to be the best thing the Brewers have going for them. Even as bad as pitching is, I have to put Teheran in the tournament-only group.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Based on Teheran’s struggle with LH hitters, we already know what we need to do here. Eriic Thames and Eric Sogard each have a wOBA over .425 against RH pitching. They have the skill set to make Teheran pay. If Travis Shaw is in the lineup, he’s also a great option as he has a .339 wOBA vs. LH over the past 13 months.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.425 0.402 0.164 24.1% 18.1% 10.8% 37.9% 2B $3,600 2B/SS $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.432 0.373 0.348 43.2% 19.0% 22.6% 40.9% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $4,200 1B $8,000
3 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.339 0.339 0.175 35.2% 11.6% 31.4% 45.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.201 36.5% 8.7% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.316 0.298 0.167 31.2% 4.3% 18.4% 48.4% OF $3,200 3B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,800
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.351 0.317 0.195 26.6% 6.9% 17.2% 35.2% C $2,400 C $3,300 C $6,600
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.312 0.290 0.204 38.8% 9.2% 38.7% 43.6% OF $2,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.267 0.244 0.122 25.7% 4.4% 21.6% 55.1% SS $2,200 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.127 0.143 0.000 13.2% 5.0% 31.7% 65.5% P $7,400 P $6,100 P $12,000

Elite Plays – Eric Thames

Secondary Plays – Eric Sogard and Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Atlanta

Ideally, we would prefer to attack Zach Davies with LH hitters where he owns a .346 wOBA over the past two seasons. The Braves don’t exactly give us a lot to work with here though. Matt Adams is the top option here as he owns a .350 wOBA vs. RH pitching. Ender Inciarte is worth a glance as well but it’s worth noting that he owns a .103 ISO. You can’t expect much from him on than getting on base once or twice.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.316 0.296 0.103 26.4% 8.3% 13.5% 42.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.330 0.306 0.128 28.6% 3.2% 12.2% 47.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.339 0.359 0.136 34.0% 11.4% 16.4% 43.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.340 0.352 0.217 36.8% 4.9% 23.9% 40.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.350 0.348 0.235 37.9% 8.4% 25.1% 33.8% 1B $3,500 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.367 0.343 0.155 41.8% 8.0% 25.1% 41.8% C $3,000 C $3,900 C $7,600
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.273 0.301 0.099 32.1% 10.1% 23.9% 49.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,900
8 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.242 0.258 0.115 27.8% 0.0% 33.3% 52.9% SS $2,600 3B $2,800 SS $5,600
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.151 0.186 0.016 10.7% 1.3% 26.9% 48.8% P $8,400 P $7,700 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Adams and Ender Inciarte

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

LA Angels at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

LA Angels Boston
laangelsmlb Parker Bridwell bostonmlb Doug Fister
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-155 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.379 0.315 30.4% 3.6% 14.3% 52.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.400 0.370 37.5% 8.8% 13.0% 38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.453 0.461 55.0% 3.9% 15.4% 35.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.286 24.2% 7.0% 16.8% 53.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Parker Bridwell
parker-bridwell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.53 13.50 20.0% 6.7% 20.0% 54.6% 9.1%
2017 1 4.16 2.79 12.8% 2.6% 51.6% 37.5% 12.5%

Parker Bridwell is going to make his third start of the season for the Red Sox. He owns a 3.07 ERA, 13.1% K rate and 9.8% BB rate so far this season (in a small sample). Prior to this season, Bridwell had never started an MLB game. In the minor leagues, he had an average K rate of 20-25% while generating a decent amount of ground balls. In the majors, the strikeouts haven’t been there but the ground balls are at 44.4%. In his 17 inning MLB career, he owns a .334 wOBA vs. LH and a .421 wOBA vs. RH hitters. He has a difficult matchup against a Red Sox team that owns a 18.5% K rate, .354 wOBA and 124 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bridwell caries too much risk here given that he hasn’t shown any strikeout upside at the MLB level and the Red Sox have one of the lowest K rates in the league.

Doug Fister
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,600 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%

Doug Fister makes his return to the MLB today. He started 32 games for the Astros last season. Fister probably could have been pitching somewhere else but he refused to take a minor league deal. As part of his deal with the Red Sox he did make three minor league starts though to get re-acclimated. Fister had a 4.64 ERA, 14.8% K rate and 8% BB rate last season. His minor league numbers from this season look similar. He’ll take on an Angles team that owns a 20.2% K rate, .307 wOBA and 94 wRC+ against RH pitching. Fister was especially vulnerable last season against LH hitters allowing a .400 wOBA as 19 of his 24 home runs were LH hitters.

Quick Breakdown: The Angels tend too be a relatively high contact team with a K rate of just 20.2%. That doesn’t align well with Fister who only had a 14.8% K rate last season. It remains to be seen whether or not Fister has anything left in the tank. I’ll take the wait and see approach here.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The main way to attack Doug Fister is with LH batters. He allowed a .400 wOBA and 19 home runs to LH hitters last season. Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena are excellent options here even though they both check in around .330 wOBA vs. RH pitching. If you want to ignore the splits or stack the Angels, Cameron Maybin and Albert Pujols both hit RH pitching well and are worth a look.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cameron Maybin RIGHT 0.350 0.305 0.122 24.5% 11.3% 17.1% 61.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.324 0.339 0.149 34.5% 10.0% 18.7% 39.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,000 RF $7,800
3 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.319 0.357 0.172 35.9% 7.8% 13.1% 44.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
4 Yunel Escobar RIGHT 0.307 0.319 0.090 27.4% 6.8% 12.1% 59.0% 3B $3,000 3B $4,000 3B $7,800
5 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.333 0.328 0.193 37.3% 13.9% 24.1% 37.9% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.314 0.317 0.106 28.3% 5.9% 8.5% 53.3% SS $3,300 SS $3,900 SS $7,600
7 Eric Young SWITCH 0.406 0.293 0.240 23.1% 1.8% 21.1% 51.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.288 0.293 0.143 28.1% 9.3% 22.1% 46.9% C $2,200 C $3,400 C $6,600
9 Cliff Pennington SWITCH 0.274 0.268 0.089 26.0% 9.2% 27.3% 36.8% SS $2,300 2B/3B $2,900 2B $5,700

Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun and Luis Valbuena

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin and Albert Pujols

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Boston

The Red Sox have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate against Parker Bridwell. He owns a .334 wOBA vs. LH and a .421 wOBA vs. RH hitters in his career. Mookie Bettts owns a .380 wOBA vs. RH pitching and is an elite play. Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Mitch Moreland and anyone that makes the lineup are also in play here. Bidwell isn’t likely to last long against this offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.380 0.338 0.208 34.6% 8.4% 10.6% 42.2% OF $3,800 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.347 0.324 0.120 32.1% 7.7% 9.6% 50.2% 2B $3,200 2B $3,500 2B $6,900
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.344 0.291 0.142 30.1% 7.3% 17.0% 47.2% SS $3,900 SS $5,100 SS $10,000
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.322 0.365 0.199 39.2% 8.7% 23.1% 39.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.348 0.337 0.191 37.3% 8.7% 15.5% 35.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
6 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.341 0.344 0.182 37.2% 9.6% 19.6% 48.7% 1B $3,100 1B $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.357 0.363 0.235 37.4% 11.2% 21.0% 45.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.275 0.257 0.077 29.6% 3.6% 22.3% 58.4% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.136 0.180 0.016 25.6% 5.8% 31.9% 65.0% SS $2,200 3B $2,700 3B $5,400

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts and Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia and Mitch Moreland

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.