MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 21st

by Josh Cole (mewhitenoise) Last Updated 2017-05-22 03:04:08

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees								Tampa Bay
			CC Sabathia							Chris Archer
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -137							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.287	19.4%	9.4%	22.0%	50.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.303	35.3%	8.8%	28.6%	45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.319	0.302	28.2%	8.5%	18.1%	49.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.304	32.2%	7.6%	26.2%	47.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	4.35	3.91	19.8%	8.5%	50.1%	24.7%	24.0%
	2017	8	4.90	4.93	15.4%	9.4%	47.2%	33.6%	22.8%

Hello, Grinders! Thanks for coming back for the Sunday Grind Down. With the Royals/Twins game from Saturday being postponed and pushed to Sunday, we’ve got 16 games on tap. As usual on Sundays, the sites have split the day’s games into a main slate and a late slate, with both DraftKings and FanDuel cutting off the main slate with the Cubs/Brewers game at 2:20. It looks to be an interesting slate with a nice mixture of solid pitchers and great hitting environments. Let’s jump in!

C.C. Sabathia against the Rays is proof that while matchups matter in DFS, they aren’t everything. Against left-handed pitching, the Rays strike out more than any other team (and it’s not really close), and they rank in the bottom third of MLB in isolated power. The last left-handed starter to surrender more than three earned runs against the Rays was Daniel Norris on April 20th – since then, mediocre southpaws like Adam Conley, Wade Miley, Francisco Liriano (twice), Wei-Yin Chen, and Jason Vargas have all had solid-to-good starts against Tampa Bay. Despite all of that, this is still a pitcher with a 4.90 SIERA and 15.4% K rate. There’s just no upside left, and we can safely move on to the other side of this game.

Quick Breakdown: Roster Sabathia and expect to CC your money disappear.

Chris Archer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,100	Salary:		$10,800	Salary:		$21,000
	Salary Rank:		2 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29	Salary Rank:		2 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	33	3.50	4.02	27.4%	7.9%	47.8%	32.8%	18.0%
	2017	9	3.69	3.70	26.9%	9.1%	40.4%	36.6%	15.0%

In his last start, Chris Archer added more fuel to the “Play Chris Archer at Home” narrative when he walked six and gave up six earned runs to the Indians in Cleveland. Take a look at some of Chris Archer’s DFS-relevant stats while at home and away this year:

K% – 33.3% at home, 19.1% on the road
BB% – 5.3% at home, 13.6% on the road
wOBA – .254 at home, .337 on the road
Hard% – 27.5% at home, 46.6% on the road

Now, we’re obviously dealing in small samples this year, but this trend has been consistent throughout his career (albeit not to such an extreme degree). But Archer at Home and Archer on the Road are clearly two different pitchers, and we want the former. Archer at Home takes on the Yankees on Sunday, which is far from an ideal matchup. They lead MLB in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Ordinarily, that alone makes Archer more of a tournament play. But the Yankees still strike out at a 21.9% clip, and we’ve seen Archer excel in tough matchups. And more importantly, there just isn’t an elite starter without any blemishes on Sunday. By default, Archer is one of the top cash game options of the slate, despite the matchup.

Quick Breakdown: You’re never going to feel great taking a pitcher against the Yankees, but the Yankees are projected to score just 3.78 runs (third-lowest of the day). If the game was at Yankee Stadium, it might be another story, but at Tropicana Field, Archer is my favorite cash game play of the slate.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Archer does represent a difficult matchup for the Yankees, we can’t forget that this is the team that ranks first in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching. There are certainly a few options that deserve some consideration in tournaments, especially considering that Archer is (sort of shockingly) giving up 49.1% hard contact to lefties this year. These are strictly tournament leverage plays, but Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury (who is a career 19-for-37 against Archer!) are a bit interesting. Again, these are plays for deep tournaments, and outside of those two, the stacking upside is limited by Tropicana Field, which is far more of a pitcher’s park.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

For a brief time, C.C. Sabathia had developed the reputation as a crafty pitcher who, despite the obvious decline in skills, could generate lots of soft contact. That simply isn’t the case this year, as Sabathia’s 37.7% hard hit rate against righties attests. While Tropicana Field reduces the Rays to more of a “stack or fade” situation, I do have some interest in Evan Longoria as a one-off. I tend to be very reluctant to put much (if any) stock in BvP numbers, but Longoria’s history against Sabathia is legendary: in 73 career at-bats, he has 30 hits (.411 average) and seven home runs. For some context, Longoria’s 1.333 OPS against Sabathia isn’t too far off the 1.379 OPS Barry Bonds put up in 2001, when he hit 73 home runs.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Evan Longoria

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

LA Angels								NY Mets
			Jesse Chavez							Tommy Milone
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-105							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.327	0.305	26.8%	9.1%	20.6%	46.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.321	39.2%	5.1%	18.4%	32.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.331	36.1%	5.6%	21.8%	42.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.375	0.364	31.4%	6.8%	15.8%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jesse Chavez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,200
	Salary Rank:		21 of 29	Salary Rank:		10 of 29	Salary Rank:		9 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	0	3.59	4.43	22.3%	6.4%	42.9%	31.2%	16.1%
	2017	8	4.30	4.22	19.9%	8.0%	44.4%	34.0%	16.0%

Jesse Chavez has been a perfectly serviceable bottom-of-the-rotation arm for the Angels this season, and he brings 4.30 SIERA into a matchup with the Mets. His strikeout rate is below average, and the only thing he’s been exceptional at throughout his career is limiting hard contact to left-handed batters. As it happens, that’s a skill that could come in handy against the likes of Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson. While I’m not crazy about Chavez, he’s simply underpriced at FanDuel, and for that reason, he makes an interesting tournament play if you want to fill your lineup with expensive bats.

Quick Breakdown: Chavez is a bargain at FanDuel, but that means you have to use your one pitcher slot on Jesse Chavez. For that reason, he’s a tournament dart throw at best in an decent matchup with the Mets.

Tommy Milone
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$11,200
	Salary Rank:		24 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		25 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	12	4.61	5.71	15.8%	7.1%	45.7%	35.6%	18.8%
	2017	5	4.22	6.25	17.7%	5.0%	37.0%	27.5%	24.8%

If you told Mets fans at the beginning of the year that less than two months into the season Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard would be on the DL, that Matt Harvey and Robert Gsellman would be sporting ERAs of 5.56 and 7.12, and that Tommy Milone would be pitching meaningful innings, you would have been laughed at. But that’s where we are on May 19th. Milone has started two games as a Met, and they’ve been very Tommy Milone-ish, as he’s allowed seven earned runs in 10.2 innings of work. His .375 wOBA against right-handed hitters since 2016 is highest of the entire day, and he’ll face a team that rolled out eight righties the last time they faced a lefty starter. Milone is an easy fade.

Quick Breakdown: If Noah Syndergaard is Thor, and Matt Harvey is the Dark Knight, what does that make Tommy Milone? Is there a superhero called “The Fade”?

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Tommy Milone has allowed a home run once in every 15 plate appearance to right-handed batters this year, and the Angels have the ability to roll out eight right-handed batters. Unfortunately, as is always the case with this team, there’s very little to like in the way of individual hitters, though Mike Trout is one of the top plays of the entire slate. Cameron Maybin has been leading off when the Angels face a lefty, and if that’s the case on Sunday, he’s worth some consideration.

Elite Plays – Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Cameron Maybin

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Jesse Chavez is a pitcher with fairly neutral platoon splits throughout his career. However, he has a long history of limiting hard contact to left-handed hitters. This is a slight hit to the upside of guys like Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, and Curtis Granderson, each of whom are still in play, even if they aren’t necessarily building blocks. The Mets’ modest 4.08 implied run total has me mostly uninterested in a stack, except in large-field GPPs.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Colorado at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Colorado								Cincinnati
			Kyle Freeland							Bronson Arroyo
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-101							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.224	32.0%	7.7%	28.2%	52.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.372	0.381	36.7%	8.9%	15.2%	35.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.308	31.9%	12.0%	11.4%	68.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.369	0.328	35.4%	5.9%	13.7%	33.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		16 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	8	4.61	3.13	14.7%	11.2%	65.5%	31.9%	24.3%

Kyle Freeland is having a quietly effective rookie season for the Rockies, turning in five quality starts in a row. He’s been able to limit opponents by posting a 66.5% ground ball rate, second among qualified starters only to Dallas Keuchel. Unfortunately, that real-life effectiveness hasn’t translated to DFS relevance, as his home ballpark and 14.7% strikeout rate has made him an easy fade all year. His 6.1% swinging strike rate indicates that, at least for now, there’s not much untapped strikeout upside, and while this is technically a ballpark upgrade, they don’t call it Great American Small Park for nothing. Freeland is a talented young arm, but for now, he’s an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland is a heralded young arm who is worth monitoring moving forward, but in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball, he’s not worth your consideration.

Bronson Arroyo
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		26 of 29	Salary Rank:		29 of 29	Salary Rank:		27 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	8	5.11	6.31	14.4%	7.2%	34.3%	35.9%	17.6%

In his age 40 season, Bronson Arroyo has allowed 29 earned runs and struck out 26 batters. His 2.4 home runs per nine innings is second-highest in MLB (only behind, guess who, Jered Weaver). Arroyo is no longer good at baseball, but he can do a mean Goo Goo Dolls cover.

Quick Breakdown: Arroyo is challenging Jered Weaver for the title of “Most Hittable Pitcher in Major League Baseball.” Steer clear of him in this (and every) matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Bronson Arroyo has a .369 wOBA or higher to both lefties and righties this year. He allows high fly balls and hard contact to hitters from both sides of the plate. Basically, this is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, and with an implied total of 4.74 runs, we can target Rockies hitters indiscriminately. At DraftKings, Colorado bats continue to be priced way up, which make them very stackable (as they should go under-owned) but difficult to work in as one-offs. At FanDuel, however, Carlos Gonzalez is one of the best bargains of the day, and you’re getting him at a time when he seems to be breaking out of his early-season slump. Charlie Blackmon is always one of the safer cash game plays on the board against righties. Weirdly, Alexi Amarista has homers in two consecutive games; don’t chase that, as he’s a hitter with a .075 ISO against righties since 2016. The Rockies have put up a combined 20 runs in the first two games of this series, and I see no reason that the scoring should slow down against Arroyo. The Rockies are my favorite stack of the main slate on Sunday.

Elite Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – Mark Reynolds, D.J. LeMahieu

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

At time of writing, the Reds have the highest implied team total on the slate, at 4.76 runs. Even against the high ground ball rate of Kyle Freeland, Vegas expects the Reds to put points on the board, but it’s a bit tricky determining where those runs will come from. The sample size on Freeland is small enough that it’s tough to draw any sweeping conclusions, but Freeland has been effective against both righties and lefties. While he’s less capable against righties in the strikeout department (11.4% K rate), he also has a 68.4% ground ball rate against them. Adam Duvall is a fly ball hitter who should be able to elevate Freeland’s low-in-the-zone offerings, and he’s got the platoon advantage; he makes for an excellent one-off. Outside of that, Eugenio Suarez has been red hot at the plate lately, with eight hits (including two home runs) over the past three games. With a few other righties likely slotted high in the order (along with Joey Votto, who can hit anybody), the Reds make for an interesting stack, though one with less “name” players than the Rockies.

Elite Plays – Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Philadelphia								Pittsburgh
			Aaron Nola							Chad Kuhl
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-100							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.305	29.8%	8.8%	21.3%	54.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.405	0.372	38.2%	8.9%	16.0%	37.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.274	27.3%	3.9%	27.9%	55.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.286	29.4%	6.4%	18.8%	45.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29	Salary Rank:		11 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	20	3.29	4.78	25.1%	6.0%	55.2%	28.8%	23.2%
	2017	3	3.91	4.50	21.7%	8.7%	54.2%	27.1%	20.8%

Aaron Nola makes his return to the Phillies rotation after missing time with a lower back strain. I never like to target pitchers coming off injury, but Nola pitched 6 ⅓ shutout innings in his last rehab start and reported no discomfort, so it appears the injury is behind him. It’s still early in his career, but so far, he’s been very good against right-handed hitters, and below average against left-handed hitters, particularly in the strikeout department: his K rate against righties is nearly 10 percentage points higher than his rate against lefties (27.7% vs. RHB, 18.4% vs. LHB). These splits set up well for Nola against the Pirates, who, outside of Josh Bell, are devoid of any dangerous lefty bats. Pittsburgh ranks dead last in MLB in wOBA and wRC+ in the month of May, and the positive park shift should also help Nola out. Pay attention for any word of a pitch count, but if Nola is all systems go, he’s viable in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: At a slight discount to to his missing time with injury, Nola makes for a fine SP2 option on a thin slate for starting pitching.

Chad Kuhl
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		28 of 29	Salary Rank:		26 of 29
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	14	4.50	4.20	17.6%	6.6%	44.3%	33.0%	19.6%
	2017	8	4.85	6.69	17.3%	9.3%	37.7%	34.2%	13.7%

You wouldn’t know it from his numbers, but Chad Kuhl is actually a talented pitcher. He throws the ball hard, touching 100 mph in his last start, and his 11.9% swinging strike rate this year is a few ticks above the 11.6% mark of Clayton Kershaw. But before it seems like I’m placing Kuhl and Kershaw in the same stratosphere, let me be clear: Kuhl is bad. At least, he’s bad at this stage in his career. His 17.3% K rate is astoundingly low for someone with his stuff, and his ERA estimators suggest that, even if he does catch some good fortune, he’s not a good major league pitcher. Until he figures out how to get lefties out, these facts won’t change. Even at home in a positive matchup, Kuhl should be off your radar.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Kuhl in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kuhl is pretty easy to figure out: target any lefty you can find against him. His .405 wOBA against left-handed bats since 2016 is the highest on the slate, and his 38.2% hard hit rate isn’t far behind, as the third-worst mark among today’s starters. Unfortunately, this is the Phillies, so we’ve got a limited number of bats to consider. Odubel Herrera and Michael Saunders are both interesting one-offs for tournaments. Cesar Hernandez gets a slight boost in stolen base upside, as Francisco Cervelli has allowed a league-worst 27 stolen bases this season.

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Michael Saunders, Cesar Hernandez

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

So far in his career, Aaron Nola has been elite at shutting down right-handed batters. He’s one of my favorite SP2 options on the slate, and therefore, I’ll have very limited exposure to Pirates bats. Adam Frazier deserves a mention if he’s hitting from the top of the lineup, and Josh Bell is coming into his own as a hitter with four home runs in his past eight games.

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell

Stackability – RED

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