Sign In $

You must be a member to view this Article.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, April 26th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-26 20:34:08

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Atlanta Cincinnati
atlantamlb Sean Newcomb cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-126 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.358 27.8% 10.7% 26.0% 44.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.366 31.3% 11.5% 13.5% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.312 26.6% 13.0% 23.9% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.372 0.390 37.4% 7.8% 18.4% 45.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sean Newcomb
sean-newcomb-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $8,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 19 4.71 4.32 23.7% 12.5% 43.8% 27.0% 17.5%
2018 4 3.65 3.74 28.4% 11.6% 50.9% 26.3% 29.8%

There are ten games on the schedule today — five early, four late, and one in-between. In four starts this season, Newcomb has a 3.65 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. His command hasn’t been great, but we are willing to deal with a high walk rate when it is accompanied by a high strikeout rate. This isn’t the ideal ballpark to target a pitcher in, but Newcomb has a high ground ball rate and it’s not like we have a ton of great pitchers to choose from in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Newcomb is viable in all formats.

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 13 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 5.19 6.43 16.0% 10.0% 44.6% 31.0% 16.5%
2018 5 4.75 3.68 16.3% 8.1% 43.3% 45.7% 15.2%

Bailey has been a little better this season but is still far from an ideal pitching option in DFS. He has a low strikeout rate, he pitches in a home run-friendly ballpark, and he struggles against both left and right-handed hitters. He checks in as a small underdog in a game that features a total of nine runs.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Cincinnati and they draw an exploitable matchup against Homer Bailey. Over the last two seasons, Bailey has allowed a .366 xwOBA to lefties and a .390 xwOBA to righties. Freddie Freeman is one of the best hitters in baseball against right-handed pitching and is one of the top targets in the early-only slate. Ronald Acuna is one of the top prospects in all of baseball. It’s better to be early rather than late in these situations. In other words, target him now before his price and ownership both go up.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.326 0.290 0.105 23.5% 6.2% 13.9% 43.7% OF $3,200 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.330 0.333 0.180 30.7% 7.3% 17.0% 37.6% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.414 0.428 0.274 39.5% 15.0% 17.5% 32.0% 1B $4,500 1B $5,300 N/A N/A
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.323 0.344 0.105 34.1% 11.3% 15.3% 46.1% OF $3,600 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.358 0.344 0.223 32.7% 5.9% 12.1% 35.3% C $3,000 C $3,800 N/A N/A
6 “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr OF $3,200 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.285 0.298 0.097 27.6% 9.7% 22.1% 47.7% SS $3,700 SS $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Ryan Flaherty LEFT 0.368 0.330 0.108 21.9% 14.3% 19.4% 59.7% 3B $3,000 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Sean Newcomb LEFT 0.073 0.074 0.000 0.0% 5.7% 57.1% 85.7% P $7,100 P $8,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Kurt Suzuki, Ronald Acuna

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are always in play when they are at home, but their matchup against Sean Newcomb isn’t the best on the board. Since the beginning of last season, he has held right-handed hitters to a .312 xwOBA. He has also held both lefties and righties under a 28% hard contact rate. Joey Votto is a sneaky play given the lefty/lefty matchup, while Adam Duvall owns a .373 xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.236 0.224 0.091 15.2% 3.1% 25.0% 43.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.272 0.284 0.054 22.1% 4.5% 12.1% 56.6% SS $3,100 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.394 0.401 0.231 33.1% 17.4% 16.4% 44.6% 1B $4,000 1B $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.384 0.373 0.300 35.1% 8.3% 22.5% 39.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.293 0.248 0.144 27.6% 4.5% 28.8% 48.8% 2B $3,600 2B $3,500 N/A N/A
6 Phillip Ervin RIGHT 0.410 0.337 0.095 25.0% 12.5% 20.8% 25.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.276 0.320 0.143 26.2% 10.8% 21.5% 40.5% C $2,000 C $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Alex Blandino RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3B $2,300 3B $3,000 N/A N/A
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.351 0.166 0.167 16.7% 0.0% 14.3% 80.0% P $6,500 P $5,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Joey Votto (GPP), Adam Duvall (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto (Cash), Adam Duvall (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Detroit at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Detroit Pittsburgh
detroitmlb Michael Fulmer pittsburghmlb Ivan Nova
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-140 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.325 35.2% 5.4% 17.6% 44.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.348 0.386 34.6% 4.3% 11.9% 42.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.311 26.0% 6.4% 15.3% 52.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.309 0.308 34.6% 4.5% 21.7% 49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 4 4.71 3.47 13.0% 6.0% 46.1% 32.9% 13.9%

Fulmer was so good as a rookie, but he has been trending in the wrong direction in each of the last two seasons. His numbers in 2018 are mediocre at best, posting a 4.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 13%. The low strikeout rate is alarming, as is his matchup. The projected lineup for the Pirates has six hitters with a strikeout rate under 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There isn’t enough upside to warrant the Fulmer play here.

Ivan Nova
ivan-nova-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 8 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.45 4.14 16.7% 4.6% 45.7% 34.8% 16.6%
2018 5 3.65 4.20 20.2% 3.2% 47.3% 33.3% 16.1%

Do you remember when I said that there would be a good time to target Nova? Ladies and gentlemen, this is it. Throughout his career, he has struggled against left-handed hitters, so we want to target him against right-handed heavy lineups. The fact that the game is being played in Pittsburgh only helps, as this is one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball. The Tigers are projected to have seven righties in their lineup and five of them have a strikeout rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Give me all the Nova shares in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH playing in Pittsburgh, and they don’t have the tools to really take advantage of their matchup. Since the beginning of last season, Ivan Nova has held right-handed hitters to a .308 xwOBA with a 49% ground ball rate. Leonys Martin and Jeimer Candelario are the only batters of interest here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.268 0.309 0.117 27.1% 7.3% 23.2% 35.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.357 0.340 0.185 30.3% 9.6% 19.1% 43.9% 3B $3,600 3B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.302 0.378 0.150 42.1% 9.4% 19.8% 43.6% 1B $3,900 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.326 0.374 0.185 44.2% 6.4% 22.5% 35.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.271 0.302 0.105 35.2% 5.8% 24.5% 39.9% C $2,500 C $2,900 N/A N/A
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.262 0.285 0.120 34.6% 6.2% 36.3% 50.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.297 0.303 0.107 36.1% 5.8% 17.8% 53.1% 2B $3,000 2B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.278 0.259 0.118 27.6% 4.0% 15.2% 52.7% SS $2,500 SS $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Michael Fulmer RIGHT 0.000 0.121 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 100.0% P $7,600 P $6,900 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates’ matchup against Michael Fulmer doesn’t look great if you strictly look at his splits, but he has a very low strikeout rate and has historically been a little “lucky” against left-handed hitters. His BABIP against lefties always seems a bit too low. Pittsburgh isn’t my favorite offense of the early slate, but the lefties are certainly viable as lineup fillers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.319 0.329 0.136 28.9% 8.1% 12.4% 49.1% OF $2,200 2B/OF $3,200 N/A N/A
2 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.316 0.340 0.180 29.8% 8.4% 13.6% 39.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.359 0.334 0.144 26.0% 7.5% 17.5% 45.7% OF $4,100 OF $4,300 N/A N/A
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.335 0.329 0.197 32.6% 10.7% 20.2% 52.0% 1B $3,400 1B $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.336 0.333 0.215 34.6% 5.7% 22.1% 37.6% OF $3,500 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.325 0.335 0.129 33.2% 10.4% 19.9% 47.2% C $2,600 C $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Colin Moran LEFT 0.331 0.366 0.145 40.4% 7.4% 16.2% 38.5% 3B $2,700 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.308 0.299 0.147 27.4% 9.4% 16.3% 47.0% SS $2,600 SS $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.000 0.066 0.000 3.9% 0.0% 49.0% 70.0% P $8,200 P $8,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Philadelphia – 1:05 PM ET

Arizona Philadelphia
arizonamlb Matt Koch philadelphiamlb Ben Lively
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-120 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.336 0.540 50.0% 14.3% 14.3% 40.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.383 0.381 31.1% 8.6% 11.5% 39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.145 0.244 36.4% 5.9% 29.4% 54.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.294 29.1% 4.0% 19.9% 33.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Koch
matt-koch-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $4,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 0.00 27.00
2018 1 3.44 1.13 25.0% 7.1% 52.6% 42.1% 15.8%

Koch is making his fourth career major league start. He is a 27-year old righty that has had a low strikeout rate in the minors (11% in ten Triple-A starts last season). While he is cheap across the industry, he is facing a talented Phillies’ offense on the road in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Given his numbers in the minors, it’s going to take a lot more than one good start to sell me on Koch.

Ben Lively
ben-lively-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 5.27 4.26 14.0% 6.5% 38.2% 30.2% 21.5%
2018 4 3.92 4.64 21.7% 6.2% 29.9% 29.9% 26.9%

Lively’s numbers aren’t as bad as they appear on paper. His SIERA is significantly lower than his ERA and he has a 21% strikeout rate so far this season. He’s never a high-strikeout pitcher in the minors, but he is generating more swings and misses this season. He’s gotten at least some respect from betting markets, as he’s listed as a small favorite in a game that features a total of 8.5 runs.

Quick Breakdown: If I had to rank the eight pitchers in the early slate, Lively would be third or fourth, right next to Newcomb.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark and draw a mediocre matchup against Ben Lively. He’s been tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .381 xwOBA to lefties since the beginning of last season. David Peralta, Daniel Descalso (salary relief), and Alex Avila are all viable here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 David Peralta LEFT 0.358 0.326 0.167 37.2% 8.0% 16.8% 52.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.304 0.326 0.124 25.9% 9.3% 14.7% 43.1% 2B $2,800 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.392 0.388 0.254 42.0% 14.1% 24.7% 46.2% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 A.J. Pollock RIGHT 0.340 0.344 0.193 37.7% 8.5% 19.8% 42.0% OF $4,300 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.324 0.337 0.162 41.6% 12.0% 21.4% 36.4% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $2,800 N/A N/A
6 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.264 0.254 0.151 29.8% 6.7% 23.2% 43.9% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.361 0.413 0.197 53.9% 16.7% 34.0% 36.7% C $2,400 C $3,000 N/A N/A
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.302 0.284 0.114 18.4% 7.2% 14.1% 43.9% OF $2,300 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
9 Matt Koch RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $5,900 P $4,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Daniel Descalso, Alex Avila (DK)

Secondary Plays – David Peralta, Paul Goldschmidt

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia

The Phillies are the preferred offense to target in this game. They are playing at home and facing an inexperienced righty that is only making his fourth career major league start. It’s a little pointless to look at splits from such a small sample size, but I am giving an edge to the lefties in this Phillies’ lineup. A stack is viable in this ballpark and these three hitters all stand out as elite plays individually — Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, and Rhys Hoskins.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.345 0.314 0.112 21.5% 11.1% 21.6% 49.2% 2B $3,500 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.349 0.392 0.208 36.0% 14.0% 17.3% 33.5% 1B $3,200 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.340 0.313 0.169 28.7% 6.3% 21.2% 42.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.433 0.413 0.328 42.4% 14.7% 23.0% 28.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.343 0.343 0.193 36.5% 6.8% 28.1% 47.1% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 N/A N/A
6 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.312 0.344 0.173 35.1% 8.5% 27.1% 37.8% SS $3,000 3B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.384 0.336 0.210 26.1% 1.8% 32.1% 53.6% C $2,000 C $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Ben Lively RIGHT 0.192 0.206 0.125 23.5% 0.0% 29.2% 58.8% P $6,400 P $4,900 N/A N/A
9 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.313 0.290 0.138 21.7% 11.0% 24.8% 32.8% SS $2,300 SS $3,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana, Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Scott Kingery

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Minnesota NY Yankees
minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson nyyankeesmlb Jordan Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-190 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.328 33.5% 8.4% 16.5% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.296 18.4% 7.8% 16.7% 48.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.380 36.6% 9.6% 19.3% 54.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.312 28.1% 8.2% 22.6% 40.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank: 14 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 4 4.51 4.29 21.3% 11.7% 46.8% 29.0% 17.7%

Gibson has been an easy pitcher to avoid each time he takes the mound. He has limited strikeout upside and has struggled to contain both left and right-handed hitters throughout his career. While he does boast a high ground ball rate, it doesn’t make up for his matchup against the Yankees. New York’s projected lineup has a .360 xwOBA against right-handed pitching, which is easily the highest mark of any team in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gibson in all formats.

Jordan Montgomery
jordan-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.34 3.88 22.2% 7.9% 40.7% 26.5% 17.9%
2018 4 4.58 3.80 18.7% 9.9% 47.7% 27.7% 16.9%

Montgomery’s numbers are fairly similar to last season, although his SIERA is slightly higher and his strikeout rate is slightly lower. While the Twins some have potent batters at the top of the lineup, they are pretty weak as a whole. Their projected lineup has a .300 xwOBA and a 25% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. J-Mont is right there with Ivan Nova as the top values of the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: On multi-pitcher sites, it’s really close between Montgomery and Nova as my favorite SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins are playing in a good ballpark, but draw a subpar matchup against Jordan Montgomery. He induces a lot of soft contact and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA over the last two seasons. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are always intriguing plays against southpaws, but the rest of the Twins can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.439 0.394 0.297 36.9% 12.8% 18.3% 40.5% 2B $4,100 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.341 0.332 0.065 23.3% 10.1% 15.1% 58.3% 1B $2,800 1B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.395 0.346 0.304 41.4% 12.4% 33.3% 37.1% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.301 0.342 0.148 26.3% 7.5% 18.2% 35.0% SS $3,400 3B/SS $3,400 N/A N/A
5 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.287 0.264 0.110 27.8% 2.6% 19.2% 50.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.272 0.265 0.138 38.9% 9.4% 34.4% 33.3% C $2,100 C $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.360 0.310 0.175 30.9% 5.8% 14.5% 41.5% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,400 N/A N/A
8 Max Kepler LEFT 0.218 0.245 0.113 22.3% 5.5% 28.1% 46.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Ryan LaMarre RIGHT 0.223 0.201 0.000 42.9% 0.0% 41.7% 100.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier (GPP), Miguel Sano (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier (Cash), Miguel Sano (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees have the highest implied total of any team on the schedule today, not just the early games. They are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium and they draw an exploitable matchup against Kyle Gibson. While he’s not particularly effective against left-handed hitters, Gibson is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .380 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. That should play right into the hands of the Yankees’ power bats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.353 0.330 0.180 30.9% 11.3% 18.6% 43.6% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.438 0.443 0.349 43.9% 16.4% 30.2% 35.6% OF $5,400 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.371 0.317 0.251 28.1% 6.5% 10.9% 35.3% SS $5,100 SS $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.377 0.372 0.304 38.2% 10.7% 27.3% 45.5% OF $4,700 OF $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.347 0.377 0.233 35.7% 5.9% 22.5% 43.3% C $4,100 C $4,900 N/A N/A
6 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.361 0.350 0.221 30.1% 16.4% 19.5% 42.9% OF $3,900 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Tyler Austin RIGHT 0.315 0.298 0.232 40.0% 6.6% 42.6% 33.3% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.418 0.395 0.368 48.5% 2.5% 15.0% 45.5% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,300 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Didi Gregorius, Gary Sanchez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez (FD), Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

NY Mets at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

NY Mets St. Louis
nymetsmlb Noah Syndergaard stlouismlb Carlos Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-106 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.264 29.6% 3.4% 34.2% 45.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.325 0.320 35.3% 11.1% 22.5% 50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.263 25.6% 3.4% 27.7% 63.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.265 30.1% 6.7% 28.7% 52.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Noah Syndergaard
noah-syndergaard-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $11,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 2.74 2.97 27.4% 2.4% 57.6% 30.2% 16.3%
2018 5 2.15 3.29 34.8% 4.5% 50.7% 23.9% 26.9%

Syndergaard has as much talent as any pitcher in baseball. If he can stay healthy this season, he should rival the numbers of Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw. In five starts this season, he owns a 2.15 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35% and a walk rate of 5%. He keeps the ball on the ground and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. The only knock on Syndergaard is that he doesn’t hold runners well. Today’s matchup against the Cardinals isn’t ideal, but he’s at least facing them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Syndergaard is the top projected pitcher of the early slate, but we certainly have to pay a premium for him.

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $11,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 4 of 20 Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.85 3.64 25.3% 8.3% 51.3% 32.1% 19.4%
2018 5 3.83 1.42 27.8% 12.8% 56.3% 37.8% 24.3%

Martinez has a great track record at home and is off to a nice start this season. In five starts, he has a 3.83 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. His command has been a little off (13% walk rate), but he’s still inducing a lot of ground balls and soft contact. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Mets, although I’d give him a slight bump if Asdrubal Cabrera is unable to suit up again.

Quick Breakdown: On FanDuel, I prefer Martinez over Syndergaard given the savings. On DraftKings, I am leaning toward Syndergaard.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

This isn’t the game that we want to target for hitters. We have two above-average pitchers on the mound that both boast a high strikeout rate. The ballpark isn’t helping, as it is typically one of the toughest parks on run production. If you have to target a hitter here, make sure they bat from the left side. Since the beginning of last season, Carlos Martinez has allowed a 35% hard contact rate to lefties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.407 0.391 0.274 39.3% 15.6% 22.0% 37.1% OF $4,000 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.359 0.334 0.218 39.1% 7.0% 22.1% 34.8% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
3 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.333 0.347 0.182 37.5% 9.4% 16.3% 40.7% 2B $3,900 2B $3,900 N/A N/A
4 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.336 0.352 0.183 31.1% 15.1% 21.8% 37.3% 3B $3,800 3B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.355 0.391 0.257 40.7% 10.3% 21.2% 32.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.300 0.350 0.142 36.1% 8.3% 15.5% 36.1% 1B $2,600 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
7 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.244 0.339 0.134 32.9% 12.2% 25.9% 50.0% C $2,100 C $2,200 N/A N/A
8 Noah Syndergaard RIGHT 0.269 0.311 0.063 50.0% 15.0% 45.0% 42.9% P $10,800 P $11,600 N/A N/A
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.264 0.244 0.109 24.0% 2.2% 30.1% 51.3% SS $2,200 SS $3,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals scored nine runs last night. It all worked out as planned. Unfortunately, I was on the Cardinals that didn’t contribute much. Everyone will see them as an auto-fade against Noah Syndergaard, but I don’t hate Matt Carpenter in this spot. He has a very low strikeout rate, he draws a lot of walks, and while he’s not the fastest player in baseball, he is capable of stealing bases in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.371 0.385 0.231 43.1% 17.8% 20.0% 25.6% 2B $3,400 2B/3B $3,500 N/A N/A
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.390 0.371 0.190 35.0% 12.9% 22.4% 50.8% OF $4,200 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.352 0.395 0.157 36.0% 9.4% 18.2% 47.1% 1B $3,600 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.388 0.369 0.250 40.2% 8.2% 22.7% 45.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.317 0.327 0.151 35.0% 5.4% 14.2% 45.4% C $3,600 C $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.361 0.356 0.237 36.6% 13.0% 21.5% 37.4% OF $3,500 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.358 0.349 0.243 36.8% 3.6% 28.6% 31.4% SS $4,300 SS $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.326 0.315 0.125 26.9% 9.7% 13.5% 47.9% 2B $2,500 2B $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.108 0.129 0.000 9.5% 1.5% 33.3% 82.9% P $9,500 P $11,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter (Cash)

Stackability – RED

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious