MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-07-29 02:33:58

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Colorado at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					NY Mets
			Tyler Anderson					Jacob deGrom
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -180					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.298	0	15.7%	13.7%	SP vs. Left	0.275	15	25.5%	5.1%
SP vs. Right	0.322	4	21.9%	2.0%	SP vs. Right	0.245	11	27.0%	5.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Anderson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$7,700
					FPPG:		27.3	FPPG:		14.0
					Pitcher Rating:		57.8	Pitcher Rank:		10
L30 Days	5	96.8	3.95	4.15	17.8%	5.4%	9.9%	53.7%	25.3%	27.8%
2016	8	96.6	3.51	3.56	20.3%	5.0%	10.5%	56.6%	22.8%	28.2%

Anderson has been sharp in his first eight major league starts, posting a 3.51 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.3%. He has an above-average swinging strike rate and he is inducing ground balls at a rate of 56.6%. Typically, ground ball pitchers limit the hard hit contact against them and that’s the case here, as Anderson has a 28.2% hard hit contact rate. He is listed as a heavy underdog today against the Mets, but that has more to do with the opposing pitcher than anything else. Anderson is a sneaky GPP play, as the Mets are ranked 22nd in team wOBA (.310) and 23rd in team strikeout rate (23%) against left-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jacob deGrom
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$10,300
					FPPG:		31.7	FPPG:		17.8
					Pitcher Rating:		90.2	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	4	100.3	3.15	2.92	26.8%	5.2%	9.2%	49.2%	29.2%	25.8%
2016	17	98.2	3.50	2.73	24.3%	5.7%	10.3%	47.4%	29.8%	31.5%
2015	30	99.2	2.99	2.54	27.3%	5.1%	12.7%	44.4%	34.7%	26.3%

If you are playing in the early-only slate with two games, deGrom is the obvious chalk of all chalk. He will likely be 95% owned in cash games and 70% owned in tournaments. When the other options are Tyler Anderson, Robbie Ray, and Zach Davies, it’s hard not to plug deGrom in at pitcher. He has been in excellent form over the last four starts and he draws a favorable matchup today against the Rockies, who are ranked 29th in team wOBA (.292) on the road this season.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies have the lowest implied team total in the early slate and the second lowest of the 18 teams in action today. They draw a difficult matchup against Jacob deGrom and they have to face him in the pitcher-friendly Citi Field. As mentioned earlier, the Rockies are one of the worst road offenses in baseball, which doesn’t bode well for their fantasy appeal today.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.337 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.185 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.3% (12 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.87 (16 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.12 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.04 (17 of 18)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.360	0.178	0.234	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,300
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.339	0.112	0.333	2B	$3,200	2B	$2,900
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.386	0.309	0.367	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,000
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.409	0.287	0.363	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.365	0.295	0.497	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,600
6	David Dahl	LEFT	0.315	0.250	0.315	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,000
7	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.306	0.126	0.295	2B	$2,700	1B/OF	$2,400
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.316	0.138	0.558	C	$2,800	C	$2,200
9	Tyler Anderson	LEFT	0.241	0.250	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$7,700
	Team Averages	—	0.337	0.216	0.329	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

If you are playing in the all-day slate, I would recommend fading the Mets in lieu of some of the better matchups out there. However, if you are playing in the early-only slate, you may want to give a few of the right-handed hitters in this lineup a look. The sample size is small (eight starts), but Tyler Anderson has allowed a .322 wOBA and four home runs to batters from the right side of the plate.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.310 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 23.0% (21 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.90 (11 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.71 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (9 of 18)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.319	0.136	0.316	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,800
2	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.279	0.135	0.263	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.418	0.313	0.412	3B	$3,200	3B	$4,200
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.296	0.134	0.224	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,100
5	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.317	0.137	0.274	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000
6	James Loney	LEFT	0.244	0.088	0.337	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,000
7	Rene Rivera	RIGHT	0.238	0.087	0.389	C	$2,200	C	$2,400
8	Alejandro De Aza	LEFT	0.232	0.098	0.427	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.068	0.000	0.530	P	$10,400	P	$10,300
	Team Averages	—	0.268	0.125	0.352	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Juan Lagares, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Arizona					Milwaukee
			Robbie Ray					Zach Davies
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIL -136					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.314	4	25.7%	5.8%	SP vs. Left	0.310	7	19.0%	8.1%
SP vs. Right	0.334	19	23.7%	9.9%	SP vs. Right	0.284	7	19.3%	7.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Robbie Ray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$9,100
					FPPG:		31.0	FPPG:		15.9
					Pitcher Rating:		62.5	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	4	100.0	3.14	3.91	31.1%	7.8%	14.0%	41.7%	35.0%	35.0%
2016	20	100.2	3.65	4.53	26.8%	8.7%	10.8%	45.0%	31.6%	34.9%
2015	23	98.1	4.05	3.52	21.8%	9.0%	9.0%	43.3%	34.6%	35.0%

After a slow start to the season, Ray is finally finding some form. In his last four starts, he has a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31.1%. During that stretch, he had a swinging strike rate of 14%. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup tonight against the Brewers. While Miller Park is known as a hitter’s ballpark, the Brewers have the highest strikeout rate (24.2%) against left-handed pitching. Once again, Jacob deGrom makes the most sense on single-pitcher sites, but Ray is certainly worth a look on multi-pitcher sites like DraftKings.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Davies
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,600
					FPPG:		29.5	FPPG:		15.2
					Pitcher Rating:		52.3	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	4	93.5	4.42	3.33	15.5%	5.2%	7.5%	50.0%	32.9%	36.4%
2016	17	92.5	4.12	3.64	19.8%	6.4%	7.9%	46.9%	32.6%	34.4%
2015	6	89.8	4.34	3.71	17.3%	10.8%	10.0%	57.6%	21.2%	32.0%

Davies hasn’t been in his best form recently, posting a 4.42 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5% in his last four starts. He had that one stretch where he was striking everyone out, but for the most part he has been a low strikeout pitcher. He draws a decent matchup today against the Diamondbacks, who have the fifth highest strikeout rate (23.4%) against right-handed pitching. Davies is a small favorite in this one, but he doesn’t have as much strikeout upside as his pitching counterpart, Robbie Ray.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The Brewers have been a mediocre offense against right-handed pitching this season, but they have the second highest implied team total in the early-only slate. They draw a decent matchup against Zach Davies, who has a 34.4% hard hit contact rate on the season. Davies has been tough on batters from both sides of the plate, but he is a low strikeout pitcher and the Diamondbacks get to face him in Miller Park.

Diamondbacks Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (17 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.158 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.4% (26 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.85 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.44 (17 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.04 (7 of 18)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Bourn	LEFT	0.275	0.071	0.301	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
2	Phil Gosselin	RIGHT	0.333	0.146	0.250	2B	$2,200	2B/3B	$3,000
3	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.304	0.102	0.414	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,900
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.392	0.227	0.346	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,400
5	Rickie Weeks	RIGHT	0.232	0.087	0.257	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900
6	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.297	0.136	0.442	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
7	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.319	0.165	0.286	OF	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,600
8	Tuffy Gosewisch	RIGHT	0.233	0.065	0.193	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
9	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.167	0.104	0.311	P	$7,800	P	$9,100
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.123	0.311	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Phil Gosselin, Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Michael Bourn, Rickie Weeks, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers haven’t been great against southpaws as a whole, but they have a few hitters that mash left-handed pitching historically. They come into the game with the fifth highest implied team total overall and the highest of the four teams in the early-only slate. Over the last two seasons, Robbie Ray has allowed a .334 wOBA and 19 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.321 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.144 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.2% (30 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. LHP — 3.93 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.03 (24 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.46 (5 of 18)

Confirmed Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jake Elmore	RIGHT	0.363	0.119	0.366	2B	$2,200	1B/3B	$2,400
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.264	0.129	0.315	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.415	0.227	0.435	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,200
4	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.336	0.246	0.194	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,700
5	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.296	0.186	0.366	3B	$2,700	3B/OF	$3,500
6	Martin Maldonado	RIGHT	0.308	0.173	0.558	C	$2,300	C	$2,500
7	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.252	0.026	0.224	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,200
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.236	0.000	0.208	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,100
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.084	0.000	0.000	P	$7,500	P	$8,600
	Team Averages	—	0.284	0.123	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jake Elmore, Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez

Secondary Plays – Chris Carter, Martin Maldonado

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					Atlanta
			Aaron Nola					Matt Wisler
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			PHI -130					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.320	10	18.6%	7.7%	SP vs. Left	0.379	20	11.9%	10.9%
SP vs. Right	0.289	11	27.8%	4.4%	SP vs. Right	0.290	15	21.1%	4.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Aaron Nola
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$8,400
					FPPG:		29.4	FPPG:		15.5
					Pitcher Rating:		74.2	Pitcher Rank:		6
L30 Days	3	81.0	3.30	6.60	27.4%	6.5%	10.7%	50.0%	34.2%	31.7%
2016	19	89.5	3.21	4.75	25.4%	5.7%	9.6%	54.9%	24.9%	27.5%
2015	13	85.9	3.66	3.59	21.4%	6.0%	8.6%	47.6%	32.4%	28.8%

Nola has a full run and a half difference between his SIERA and ERA. Luckily (at least for DFS purposes), his ERA in higher than his SIERA, which suggests some improvement in the second half of the season. The peripheral stats look great, as he currently boasts a 3.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.4%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Braves, who are ranked dead last in both team wOBA (.286) and team ISO (.120) against right-handed pitching. At his discounted price, I like Nola in all league formats tonight.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Matt Wisler
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		23.6	FPPG:		11.6
					Pitcher Rating:		49.9	Pitcher Rank:		14
L30 Days	5	94.2	4.04	7.24	21.4%	6.4%	12.3%	40.9%	37.5%	35.6%
2016	19	95.5	4.62	4.92	17.6%	6.8%	9.0%	38.2%	42.3%	37.3%
2015	19	93.3	4.98	4.71	15.1%	8.4%	8.1%	33.6%	43.2%	28.2%

This should be a fun series, as two of the worst offenses in baseball square off in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Wisler is not having a great season thus far, posting a 4.62 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.6%. He is a fly-ball pitcher that has given up a 37.3% hard hit contact rate. That’s generally not a great combination, especially when you throw in the low strikeout rate. Even though his matchup looks favorable, I will be fading Wisler in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies are a sneaky offense to target tonight, as they have the tenth highest team total on the board. Turner Field isn’t exactly built for offensive production, but they draw a favorable matchup against the struggling Matt Wisler. In the last two seasons, Wisler has allowed a .379 wOBA and 20 home runs to left-handed hitters. I always like targeting batters against pitchers that have both a high fly ball rate and a high hard contact rate.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.295 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.154 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.6% (18 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.74 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.51 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.93 (10 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.300	0.088	0.326	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.351	0.148	0.298	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,900
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.339	0.203	0.211	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,300
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.313	0.239	0.360	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,900
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.291	0.142	0.273	C	$2,900	C	$3,500
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.300	0.165	0.149	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.290	0.125	0.246	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,400
8	Jimmy Paredes	SWITCH	0.316	0.156	0.110	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,600
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.111	0.023	0.144	P	$8,000	P	$8,400
	Team Averages	—	0.290	0.143	0.235	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Cody Asche

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

With Aaron Nola being one of my favorite value plays on the board tonight, I’m obviously not very high on the Braves’ offense. They continue to struggle against right-handed pitching and they come into tonight’s game with the sixth lowest team total on the board. Nola has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters in the last two seasons, but as we mentioned above, his peripheral statistics suggest improvement moving forward.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.286 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.120 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.69 (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.43 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.57 (13 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.314	0.113	0.335	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,100
2	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.286	0.137	0.186	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$2,800
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.373	0.239	0.330	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.336	0.103	0.339	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500
5	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.299	0.173	0.219	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,700
6	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.333	0.113	0.336	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,700
7	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.309	0.127	0.332	C	$2,100	C	$2,500
8	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.278	0.070	0.296	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,400
9	Matt Wisler	RIGHT	0.119	0.000	0.293	P	$6,700	P	$5,600
	Team Averages	—	0.294	0.119	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

St. Louis at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
St. Louis					Miami
			Michael Wacha					Jose Fernandez
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIA -185					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.289	10	19.4%	7.9%	SP vs. Left	0.315	8	27.2%	8.6%
SP vs. Right	0.320	20	20.6%	7.5%	SP vs. Right	0.210	4	41.5%	4.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Wacha
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$6,500
					FPPG:		27.1	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		50.6	Pitcher Rank:		13
L30 Days	5	97.6	3.84	4.23	20.2%	5.4%	9.2%	48.9%	27.7%	34.4%
2016	20	96.5	4.22	4.37	20.1%	7.8%	8.5%	46.1%	29.8%	30.1%
2015	30	97.9	4.02	3.37	20.1%	7.6%	9.5%	45.8%	32.0%	29.7%

Wacha has been the definition of mediocre. He has a 4.22 SIERA, a strikeout rate of 20.1%, and a walk rate of 7.8%. He doesn’t do anything great, but he doesn’t do anything poorly either. There are times when we can target him in DFS, but tonight is not one of them. It has more to do with the opposing pitcher than anything else. Wacha is a heavy underdog tonight against the Marlins, who have the fifth lowest strikeout rate (19%) against right-handed pitching.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jose Fernandez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$11,800	Salary:		$13,400
					FPPG:		46.5	FPPG:		26.2
					Pitcher Rating:		97.8	Pitcher Rank:		1
L30 Days	4	101.8	2.48	3.46	33.9%	4.6%	14.0%	40.6%	25.0%	24.2%
2016	19	100.8	2.55	2.54	36.8%	7.4%	14.8%	41.3%	30.3%	31.3%
2015	11	90.2	2.77	2.92	29.8%	5.3%	13.3%	40.1%	31.1%	29.4%

Fernandez rarely has a bad outing these days. In 19 starts this season, he has a 2.55 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 36.8%. He generates a ton of swings and misses and he has limited the hard hit contact against him. When you put him in that massive Marlins Park, he can attack each and every hitter, as he knows how hard it is to hit home runs in Miami. He is the premier play at pitcher tonight and I’m not overly concerned about the matchup. The Cardinals are a tough offense, but Jose Fernandez is pitching at home, don’t overthink this one.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals may be ranked third in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season, but we can throw all of that out the window tonight. Targeting hitters against Jose Fernandez is never a great idea, especially when he is pitching at home. Unless the site you are playing on rewards fantasy points for swings and misses, you should be avoiding the hitters from the Cardinals.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.340 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.198 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (9 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.83 (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.08 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.01 (18 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Greg Garcia	LEFT	0.346	0.136	0.317	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,300
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.387	0.216	0.318	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,500
3	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.339	0.167	0.335	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,000
4	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.339	0.167	0.280	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,700
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.320	0.203	0.333	1B	$2,700	1B	$2,700
6	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.312	0.202	0.457	3B	$2,900	1B/2B	$3,300
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.358	0.266	0.288	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,100
8	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.301	0.094	0.364	C	$3,200	C	$2,500
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.135	0.014	0.000	P	$7,300	P	$6,500
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.163	0.299	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Miami

The Marlins are favored in this game, but their matchup against Michael Wacha is less than ideal. Over the last two seasons, Wacha has held left-handed hitters to a .289 wOBA. He has given up a .320 wOBA to right-handed hitters though, so you could certainly give Giancarlo Stanton a look tonight. Jose Fernandez is really the only elite play in this game. Oh, before we move on, Dee Gordon is on track to return to the Marlins’ lineup tonight. He is going to really help this offense moving forward and he will be a great fantasy option soon enough.

Marlins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.135 (28 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (5 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.82 (23 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (21 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.99 (8 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.321	0.080				2B	$4,500
2	Martin Prado	RIGHT	0.306	0.090	0.365	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,400
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.376	0.164	0.407	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,300
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.356	0.259	0.386	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200
5	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.306	0.139	0.262	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,400
6	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.318	0.123	0.304	C	$3,000	C	$3,900
7	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.275	0.085	0.319	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900
8	Chris Johnson	RIGHT	0.251	0.096	0.320	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,400
9	Jose Fernandez	RIGHT	0.250	0.104	0.585	P	$11,800	P	$13,400
	Team Averages	—	0.307	0.127	0.369	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Minnesota – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Minnesota
			Ubaldo Jimenez					Kyle Gibson
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			MIN -105					10.0
SP vs. Left	0.343	20	21.3%	9.8%	SP vs. Left	0.314	12	16.3%	8.5%
SP vs. Right	0.341	10	19.1%	10.0%	SP vs. Right	0.301	14	18.5%	7.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ubaldo Jimenez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$4,700
					FPPG:		17.8	FPPG:		6.4
					Pitcher Rating:		40.4	Pitcher Rank:		17
L30 Days	3	71.0	6.26	10.13	14.8%	16.7%	8.9%	44.4%	36.1%	29.7%
2016	17	91.2	5.06	7.38	18.0%	12.5%	7.7%	49.1%	29.7%	33.3%
2015	32	95.6	3.93	4.11	21.2%	8.6%	8.0%	49.1%	28.8%	27.0%

The argument can be made that Ubaldo Jimenez is the worst starting pitcher in baseball. There are some great candidates for that title, but Jimenez is trying his best to make a run for it. In 17 starts this season, he has a 7.38 ERA with a strikeout rate of 18% and a walk rate of 12.5%. He has been an easy fade for quite some time now and there is no reason to change our thought process with him tonight. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 10.0 runs.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Kyle Gibson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$6,600
					FPPG:		24.3	FPPG:		11.7
					Pitcher Rating:		47.0	Pitcher Rank:		15
L30 Days	5	100.8	3.74	3.03	21.8%	6.0%	9.5%	50.5%	29.5%	25.0%
2016	12	97.8	4.51	4.67	16.6%	8.1%	9.2%	52.4%	27.8%	26.5%
2015	32	101.1	4.12	3.84	17.7%	7.9%	9.8%	53.4%	26.8%	27.7%

Gisbon has been in good form over the last month of play, posting a 3.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.8%. He’s not a pitcher that I will be trusting in DFS anytime soon, but his form does at least give me pause when it comes to targeting hitters against him. The strikeout potential against the Orioles is there, but so is the downside. On the season, Baltimore is ranked second in both team wOBA (.341) and team ISO (.193) against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

With these two pitchers on the mound, everyone is expecting a shootout tonight. The Orioles are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they currently have the second highest run projection on the board. The one concern in this matchup is that Kyle Gibson has a 52% ground ball rate. However, the Orioles are known as a team that hits ground ball pitchers well. Target them with confidence tonight.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.341 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.193 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (23 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.86 (18 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.78 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.97 (2 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.341	0.205	0.277	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.395	0.128	0.306	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.384	0.239	0.321	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,400
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.385	0.309	0.196	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,100
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.348	0.212	0.239	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,700
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.324	0.165	0.155	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.365	0.236	0.276	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,200
8	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.339	0.243	0.251	3B	$3,200	1B	$3,700
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.276	0.113	0.361	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.351	0.206	0.265	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota

The Twins have the highest implied team total on the board. That’s not something that you hear everyday, so let me say that again. The Twins have the highest implied team total on the board. It kinda has a nice ring to it. You have to love their matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez, whose ERA is approaching double-digits on the season. In addition to a high walk rate, Jimenez has allowed a .340+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Twins Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.308 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.155 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.2% (22 of 30)
Pitches Per PA vs. RHP — 3.95 (4 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.42 (18 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.03 (1 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.331	0.122	0.169	SS	$3,700	3B/SS	$4,500
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.321	0.114	0.237	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,400
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.359	0.233	0.289	OF	$3,800	3B/OF	$4,300
4	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.315	0.193	0.329	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,200
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.338	0.281	0.331	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700
6	Kennys Vargas	SWITCH	0.276	0.153	0.289	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,100
7	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.301	0.185	0.350	OF	$2,400	OF	$4,200
8	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.280	0.093	0.320	C	$2,500	C	$3,100
9	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.280	0.139	0.218	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,600
	Team Averages	—	0.311	0.168	0.281	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, July 28th

Stackability Rating System:

Colorado at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Wilmer Flores

Secondary Plays – Juan Lagares, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Arizona at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Phil Gosselin, Jean Segura, Paul Goldschmidt

Secondary Plays – Michael Bourn, Rickie Weeks, Yasmany Tomas

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

Confirmed Lineup

Elite Plays – Jake Elmore, Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez

Secondary Plays – Chris Carter, Martin Maldonado

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Atlanta – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Cody Asche

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED

St. Louis at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Miami

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Minnesota – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Matt Wieters, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – GREEN

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Max Kepler

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Joe Mauer, Kennys Vargas, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – GREEN

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