MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-07 17:58:33

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Colorado at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Cincinnati
			Tyler Anderson							Tyler Mahle
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-120							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.399	0.370	27.3%	14.8%	22.2%	28.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.393	0.392	45.6%	13.9%	22.9%	34.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.313	33.8%	8.3%	19.9%	33.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.317	35.7%	3.1%	21.5%	42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Anderson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		15 of 20	Salary Rank:		9 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20
	2017	15	4.14	4.81	22.4%	7.2%	43.7%	32.0%	24.1%
	2018	12	4.60	5.07	20.4%	9.6%	32.8%	32.6%	21.0%
	L14	2	6.65	6.55	12.0%	12.0%	21.1%	29.0%	15.8%

Anderson has struggled to find any form this season. In his 12 starts, he has a 4.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%, a walk rate of 10%, and a very low ground ball rate (33%). He draws a difficult matchup against the Reds in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. If you include Curt Casali (very small sample size), the Reds have five hitters in the projected lineup with at least a .365 xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Anderson has bad form and finds himself in a tough spot on the road.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Mahle
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$12,300
	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		7 of 20	Salary Rank:		11 of 20
	2017	4	5.53	2.70	15.2%	12.0%	52.5%	23.8%	22.2%
	2018	12	4.19	4.38	22.3%	8.8%	38.3%	40.4%	14.9%
	L14	2	4.90	3.60	20.5%	13.6%	50.0%	44.8%	13.8%

Mahle has had a few solid outings this season, but is a secondary option at best in today’s five-game early slate. In 12 starts this year, he owns a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. The Rockies haven’t been great on the road this season, but they have fared well offensively in this series. Mahle is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact, which makes him a fade in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Mahle is the preferred pitching option in this game, but both starters can be avoided.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies aren’t playing at home, but are still in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. They draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Mahle, who has allowed a .392 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters this season. Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, and Gerardo Parra are all viable options in this early slate. There are better stacking options, but Nolan Arenado is a decent one-off in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.366	0.396	0.115	28.1%	7.7%	13.5%	54.9%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,200
2	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.397	0.346	0.276	37.8%	13.5%	19.6%	42.9%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200	CF	$10,000
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.376	0.407	0.214	40.8%	11.4%	22.8%	40.8%	3B	$5,000	3B	$5,400	3B	$10,700
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.313	0.322	0.233	28.8%	7.1%	26.3%	34.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000	RF	$8,200
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.338	0.345	0.170	41.8%	9.0%	27.5%	36.6%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,500
6	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.317	0.281	0.109	29.7%	6.3%	14.2%	43.9%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,700
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.291	0.335	0.163	28.1%	6.1%	27.2%	66.7%	1B	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,800	LF	$7,200
8	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.354	0.305	0.208	32.7%	11.1%	28.9%	37.3%	C	$2,700	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
9	Tyler Anderson	LEFT	0.191	0.300	0.000	0.0%	8.3%	33.3%	0.0%	P	$5,900	P	$6,400	P	$13,600
	Team Averages		0.327	0.337	0.165	29.8%	8.9%	23.7%	39.8%

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Nolan Arenado, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

The Reds draw an exploitable matchup against Tyler Anderson, who has struggled all season. He has a high walk rate, a low ground ball rate, and a high hard contact rate. He has allowed a .370 xwOBA to lefties and a 34% hard contact rate to righties. The Reds have a high implied total and as noted above, have plenty of firepower against southpaws. Individually, Eugenio Suarez and Adam Duvall are the top targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.246	0.362	0.041	21.7%	2.6%	6.6%	42.4%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,900
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.315	0.376	0.279	43.2%	1.6%	28.6%	37.2%	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,400
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.365	0.360	0.113	43.6%	14.1%	18.8%	49.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,600
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.476	0.353	0.385	63.3%	23.5%	17.6%	40.0%	3B	$3,700	3B	$5,100	3B	$9,700
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.369	0.269	0.327	58.8%	19.7%	24.6%	35.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$7,300
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.375	0.395	0.095	44.7%	4.3%	8.7%	55.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,400
7	Curt Casali	RIGHT	1.316	0.874	3.000	100.0%	50.0%	0.0%	0.0%	C	$2,400	C	$2,600	C	$5,600
8	Tyler Mahle	RIGHT	0.202	0.311	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	20.0%	66.7%	P	$6,400	P	$7,000	P	$12,300
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.237	0.205	0.164	24.2%	6.8%	37.3%	19.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	CF	$6,000
	Team Averages		0.433	0.389	0.489	47.2%	13.6%	18.0%	38.4%

Elite Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, Scott Schebler, Curt Casali

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								Pittsburgh
			Dennis Santana							Jameson Taillon
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-135							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.455	0.357	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	25.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.329	33.7%	12.4%	17.8%	48.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.416	0.449	37.5%	9.1%	18.2%	25.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.230	0.244	23.8%	1.4%	26.1%	56.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dennis Santana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$9,600
	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		18 of 20	Salary Rank:		18 of 20

	2018	0	3.42	12.27	21.1%	5.3%	25.0%	23.1%	15.4%
	L14	0	3.42	12.27	21.1%	5.3%	25.0%	23.1%	15.4%

Santana gave up five earned runs in his major league debut, but we shouldn’t hold that against him. His debut was in Coors Field, where elite pitchers tend to struggle. In ten minor league starts earlier this season, he had an FIP close to three with a strikeout rate of 31%. He’s still an unknown at the major league level, but he’s only $4,000 on DraftKings and obviously brings some strikeout upside to the table.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options in cash games, but Santana is viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		6 of 20	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		6 of 20
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%
	2018	12	3.70	3.97	22.1%	6.6%	52.9%	28.4%	23.7%
	L14	3	2.83	3.98	25.3%	3.8%	58.9%	30.4%	28.6%

Taillon has all of the skills that I look for in a pitcher. He has a low SIERA (3.70), an above-average strikeout rate (22%), and a high ground ball rate (53%). He induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which helps him pitch well in any ballpark. Even though the Dodgers have had one of the best offenses against right-handed pitching over the last few years, their projected lineup has a .302 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers have one of the worst matchups of the slate. Jameson Taillon has above-average ground ball, strikeout, and soft contact rates and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .330 xwOBA this season. To make matters worse, the Dodgers are facing him on the road in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.343	0.371	0.210	32.5%	7.5%	29.0%	31.0%	SS	$3,800	OF/SS	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Justin Turner	RIGHT	0.285	0.276	0.113	35.3%	3.6%	3.6%	43.1%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
3	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.390	0.303	0.238	41.4%	11.0%	19.2%	41.4%	C	$3,000	C	$4,100	C	$7,600
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.390	0.502	0.203	43.9%	3.8%	20.6%	41.8%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,500
5	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.303	0.236	0.182	35.1%	8.6%	23.3%	46.4%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,500
6	Joc Pederson	LEFT	0.332	0.269	0.202	37.4%	11.7%	15.3%	42.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,800
7	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.370	0.364	0.200	38.3%	7.9%	21.1%	34.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	RF	$7,200
8	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.301	0.333	0.119	27.1%	4.2%	12.7%	42.4%	2B	$2,300	2B/3B	$2,800	3B	$5,800
9	Dennis Santana	RIGHT	0.000	0.277	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,600	P	$4,000	P	$9,600
	Team Averages		0.302	0.326	0.163	32.3%	6.5%	27.2%	35.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are favored in this game, but not by much. When you consider the fact that Pittsburgh has their best pitcher on the mound and the Dodgers have a rookie that is only making his second career start, maybe we should have a little more interest in Dennis Santana. I’m not overly interested in the Pirates today outside of an Austin Meadows one-off in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.306	0.323	0.103	39.7%	6.3%	16.7%	35.6%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,700
2	Austin Meadows	LEFT	0.376	0.390	0.263	44.1%	2.5%	12.5%	35.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,200
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.289	0.296	0.148	26.2%	6.6%	20.4%	47.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,300
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.327	0.312	0.133	33.8%	10.2%	18.7%	50.8%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,300
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.340	0.257	0.187	33.3%	5.1%	10.1%	30.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,700
6	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.376	0.308	0.167	33.1%	9.1%	15.2%	38.8%	3B	$2,400	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,500
7	Elias Diaz	RIGHT	0.305	0.373	0.100	18.6%	7.4%	13.0%	51.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,300	C	$6,300
8	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.222	0.247	0.092	25.6%	12.2%	35.1%	35.9%	2B	$2,000	OF/SS	$2,800	2B	$5,700
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.143	0.054	0.056	27.3%	0.0%	38.9%	72.7%	P	$7,800	P	$5,800	P	$16,000
	Team Averages		0.298	0.284	0.139	31.3%	6.6%	20.1%	44.2%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Austin Meadows

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago White Sox								Minnesota
			James Shields							Jose Berrios
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-210							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.255	0.328	24.8%	13.8%	19.1%	45.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.261	0.286	29.4%	5.6%	22.9%	38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.368	35.8%	6.0%	13.2%	32.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.275	0.297	29.7%	4.0%	27.2%	44.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
James Shields
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,300	Salary:		$11,000
	Salary Rank:		10 of 20	Salary Rank:		13 of 20	Salary Rank:		14 of 20
	2017	21	4.94	5.23	20.0%	10.3%	38.2%	33.3%	19.3%
	2018	12	5.12	4.48	16.0%	9.7%	38.1%	31.1%	14.5%
	L14	3	4.67	3.43	18.1%	7.2%	34.4%	31.2%	11.5%

Shields is always one of our favorite pitchers to see on the schedule because he loves to give up runs in bunches. In 12 starts this season, he owns a 5.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 10% and a walk rate of 10%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and he draws a difficult matchup on the road. The Twins’ projected lineup has a .323 xwOBA and a .187 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Shields in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jose Berrios
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$20,500
	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20	Salary Rank:		3 of 20
	2017	25	4.29	3.89	22.6%	7.8%	39.0%	27.9%	20.4%
	2018	12	3.41	3.86	25.1%	4.8%	41.5%	29.6%	21.2%
	L14	3	3.05	3.38	29.3%	4.9%	37.0%	35.2%	13.0%

Other than that small rough stretch of starts, Berrios is having an excellent season. He owns a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of only 5%. He doesn’t have a high ground ball rate, but he still induces a lot of soft and medium contact. As far as matchups go, there are few better for a right-handed hitter than the White Sox. Chicago’s projected lineup has a .313 xwOBA with a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are playing in a decent hitter’s part today, but draw a difficult matchup against Jose Berrios. In addition to having a high strikeout rate and a low hard contact rate, Berrios has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA this season. Yoan Moncada is always viable as a one-off when he’s facing a right-handed pitcher, but he’s the only White Sox batter on my radar.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.382	0.224	0.223	43.2%	10.8%	33.1%	31.0%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
2	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.346	0.317	0.173	28.9%	2.4%	13.9%	45.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	2B	$7,300
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.414	0.377	0.204	37.4%	6.5%	16.2%	40.3%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,000
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.423	0.330	0.248	44.8%	15.0%	31.5%	37.3%	3B	$3,100	1B/3B	$3,800	3B	$7,200
5	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.293	0.331	0.197	25.7%	7.5%	24.4%	44.4%	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,600
6	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.291	0.267	0.072	28.9%	11.5%	21.8%	40.4%	C	$2,000	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
7	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.235	0.229	0.101	19.4%	8.1%	30.6%	45.3%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,700
8	Charlie Tilson	LEFT	0.222	0.208	0.000	25.0%	5.6%	5.6%	60.0%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,700
9	Trayce Thompson	RIGHT	0.213	0.260	0.118	11.8%	5.6%	31.5%	32.4%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.313	0.283	0.148	29.5%	8.1%	23.2%	41.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

The Twins’ stacks should be out in full force in this five-game early slate. They draw the best matchup on the board, as they square off against James Shields. On the season, he has allowed a .328 xwOBA with a 14% walk rate to lefties and a .368 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate to righties. This is a great matchup for all of the Twins, but it’s worth pointing out that Brian Dozier is 12-for-38 with four home runs and five doubles against Shields in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.322	0.368	0.199	36.9%	8.7%	18.4%	40.3%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.351	0.365	0.259	39.5%	7.1%	17.1%	31.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,800
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.308	0.255	0.278	48.0%	7.2%	41.2%	44.0%	3B	$3,800	1B/3B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,100
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.358	0.399	0.176	37.5%	13.1%	17.6%	34.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,500
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.350	0.328	0.276	40.4%	5.8%	23.7%	24.8%	3B	$3,500	3B/SS	$4,200	SS	$9,000
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.343	0.313	0.156	42.0%	12.4%	13.7%	39.5%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,400
7	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.330	0.329	0.099	41.4%	13.1%	21.5%	34.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
8	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.310	0.215	0.075	42.3%	6.8%	31.8%	44.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,900
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.232	0.227	0.167	32.1%	5.0%	25.0%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,600
	Team Averages		0.323	0.311	0.187	40.0%	8.8%	23.3%	38.0%

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario, Miguel Sano, Logan Morrison, Eduardo Escobar

Secondary Plays – Max Kepler

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								St. Louis
			Trevor Richards							Miles Mikolas
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-195							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.328	40.0%	15.5%	31.0%	36.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.306	0.330	37.7%	1.9%	14.7%	43.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.372	0.403	43.2%	10.2%	12.2%	40.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.215	0.268	30.1%	3.9%	23.1%	60.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Richards
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:		17 of 20	Salary Rank:		12 of 20	Salary Rank:		15 of 20

	2018	5	4.75	4.94	22.4%	13.1%	38.8%	41.8%	17.9%

Richards is making his sixth major league start of the season. In six minor league starts, he posted a 3.70 FIP with a strikeout rate of 25%. He’s not a top pitching prospect by any means, so he’ll need to prove himself at this level before he warrants consideration in DFS.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Richards in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Miles Mikolas
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$9,500	Salary:		$21,200
	Salary Rank:		3 of 20	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		2 of 20

	2018	11	3.61	2.49	18.5%	2.8%	50.5%	34.5%	18.4%
	L14	3	3.73	2.14	19.8%	3.7%	48.3%	33.3%	20.0%

Mikolas and I have had a rocky relationship this season, but our issues can be fixed. I’m willing to forgive and forget as long as he’s willing to do the same. We’ll start the process with a solid outing today against the Marlins, who have already knocked around Carlos Martinez and Jake Flaherty in the first two games of this series. I’m always willing to zoom out and look at the big picture and it’s clear that the Marlins have one of the worst offenses in baseball. Mikolas doesn’t have the highest strikeout rate of the pitchers in this slate, but it’s boosted by this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Mikolas is an elite option in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board, as they square off against Miles Mikolas in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Even though Mikolas has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters, I’m not going out of my way to target Derek Dietrich or Justin Bour in this ballpark. They are both secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.295	0.319	0.107	37.1%	4.8%	21.2%	50.7%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
2	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.328	0.417	0.137	36.3%	4.0%	21.3%	45.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,900
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.387	0.380	0.216	42.7%	6.6%	16.1%	45.6%	C	$3,300	C	$3,700	C	$7,600
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.414	0.351	0.262	40.0%	17.0%	21.8%	38.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,300
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.344	0.367	0.088	35.3%	7.3%	21.3%	48.4%	3B	$3,200	3B/OF	$3,300	3B	$6,300
6	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.298	0.302	0.130	30.4%	5.3%	12.9%	53.8%	SS	$2,000	SS	$2,900	2B	$5,700
7	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.263	0.272	0.136	26.7%	0.0%	31.8%	60.0%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,800	SS	$5,500
8	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.267	0.302	0.104	36.8%	4.5%	37.0%	51.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,700
9	Elieser Hernandez	RIGHT	0.032	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	100.0%	P	$5,700	P	$4,100	P	$9,200
	Team Averages		0.292	0.301	0.131	31.7%	5.5%	28.7%	54.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Derek Dietrich, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

The Cardinals are facing rookie Trevor Richards, who has shown revers splits in his first five major league starts. This bodes well for a right-handed heavy Cardinals’ lineup. Jose Martinez, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna, and Yadier Molina all bat from the right side and all boast a .350+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. Matt Carpenter is also viable in all formats, as he has been red-hot at the plate over the last few weeks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.399	0.421	0.205	48.2%	13.6%	26.1%	23.1%	3B	$3,900	2B/3B	$4,000	3B	$7,200
2	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.412	0.271	0.155	37.5%	8.0%	14.4%	54.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
3	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.367	0.253	0.185	42.9%	12.1%	27.2%	48.1%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,100
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.353	0.360	0.102	44.3%	6.2%	19.7%	51.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,700
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.355		0.176	44.3%	4.1%	14.4%	48.1%	C	$2,700	C	$3,300	C	$6,900
6	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.309	0.316	0.154	35.7%	11.5%	15.9%	35.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
7	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.234	0.281	0.023	37.5%	6.5%	23.9%	62.5%	SS	$2,600	3B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,400
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.283	0.251	0.149	26.3%	6.8%	16.5%	51.7%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,700
9	Miles Mikolas	RIGHT	0.217	0.062	0.188	22.2%	10.0%	45.0%	66.7%	P	$9,000	P	$9,500	P	$21,200
	Team Averages		0.325	0.277	0.149	37.7%	8.8%	22.6%	49.0%

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Marcell Ozuna

Secondary Plays – Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina

Stackability – YELLOW

Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Chicago Cubs
			Nick Pivetta							Tyler Chatwood
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-130
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.369	29.6%	8.9%	24.4%	38.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.397	35.6%	18.2%	14.4%	50.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.257	0.266	24.1%	4.6%	30.5%	44.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.337	28.3%	22.1%	24.8%	55.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,100
	Salary Rank:		5 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20	Salary Rank:		4 of 20
	2017	26	4.32	6.02	24.0%	9.8%	43.8%	35.5%	15.9%
	2018	12	3.35	3.48	27.6%	6.7%	41.1%	26.8%	14.6%
	L14	3	3.80	2.81	25.8%	9.1%	42.5%	23.8%	4.8%

Pivetta is one of the most talented pitchers to take the mound today, which is crazy to say given where he was at this time last year. In 12 starts this season, he has a 3.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has done a great job of limiting hard contact and he has improved his control. The total for this game hasn’t been set (at the time of writing this), but with the wind blowing in from center, it should be fairly low.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta is an excellent tournament play, especially on multi-pitcher sites.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Chatwood
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,000
	Salary Rank:		16 of 20	Salary Rank:		8 of 20	Salary Rank:		9 of 20
	2017	25	4.78	4.69	19.0%	12.2%	58.1%	29.1%	22.1%
	2018	11	6.14	4.02	19.2%	20.0%	52.8%	32.7%	15.0%
	L14	3	8.06	7.59	11.9%	25.4%	56.8%	32.4%	18.9%

Chatwood is having a rough go in his first season with the Cubs. His strikeout and ground ball rates are similar to where they were a year ago, but any pitcher with a 20% walk rate is going to struggle. This is actually a decent matchup for Chatwood, but he can’t afford to walk every fifth batter that he faces. With a handful of viable pitching options in the early slate, I will look elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: it’s a good spot for Chatwood, but there are better plays for the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

In terms of his actual splits, Tyler Chatwood doesn’t seem like he’d have a 6.14 SIERA, but that’s largely thanks to his 20% walk rate. On the season, he has allowed a .397 xwOBA to lefties and a .337 xwOBA to righties. With the wind blowing in from center field, I’m not chomping at the bit to play the Phillies against a ground ball pitcher, but Cesar Hernandez and Carlos Santana are decent one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.334	0.309	0.175	26.3%	13.9%	23.0%	43.0%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,400
2	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.332	0.207	0.163	28.0%	8.6%	18.4%	44.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
3	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.299	0.252	0.110	26.5%	5.8%	21.7%	39.2%	SS	$2,100	3B/SS	$2,900	SS	$5,500
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.390	0.320	0.236	34.5%	16.9%	14.0%	38.1%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,700
5	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.302	0.329	0.126	34.9%	12.6%	33.6%	49.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,600
6	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.377	0.330	0.218	28.8%	8.8%	24.8%	46.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,100	LF	$5,500
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.307	0.211	0.154	24.3%	4.4%	17.5%	52.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,500
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.283	0.266	0.155	32.8%	3.7%	41.3%	51.7%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900	C	$5,700
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.184	0.000	0.083	14.3%	0.0%	46.2%	66.7%	P	$8,400	P	$9,600	P	$18,100
	Team Averages		0.312	0.247	0.158	27.8%	8.3%	26.7%	47.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are favored today, but have the more difficult of the two pitching matchups. Nick Pivetta has an elite strikeout rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .266 xwOBA. His biggest weakness so far has been left-handed hitters, as he has allowed a .369 xwOBA this season. Again, these aren’t the best hitting conditions, but Ben Zobrist and Anthony Rizzo are decent one-off targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.374	0.369	0.186	33.7%	15.7%	10.7%	43.8%	OF	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,200
2	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.388	0.339	0.157	35.0%	9.7%	8.1%	36.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,500
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.381	0.288	0.146	34.2%	12.6%	18.3%	37.4%	3B	$4,300	3B	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,200
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.396	0.426	0.180	34.9%	11.4%	9.0%	34.1%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,300
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.335	0.299	0.188	28.2%	7.3%	17.6%	48.3%	C	$3,100	C	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,700
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.378	0.401	0.301	40.6%	16.3%	23.8%	46.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,000
7	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.357	0.313	0.312	36.5%	2.4%	26.2%	40.9%	2B	$4,000	2B/SS	$4,800	2B	$9,300
8	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.259	0.328	0.088	30.2%	6.6%	23.0%	49.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
9	Tyler Chatwood	RIGHT	0.107	0.299	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	26.7%	75.0%	P	$5,800	P	$6,900	P	$13,000
	Team Averages		0.331	0.340	0.173	30.4%	9.1%	18.2%	45.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 7th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Colorado at Cincinnati – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

LA Dodgers at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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