Sign In Get the App $ $

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-29 01:13:21

Jump to Page 1 2

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Minnesota at Cleveland – 12:10 PM ET

Minnesota Cleveland
Article Image Ervin Santana Article Image Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.278 0.284 28.4% 5.7% 15.8% 41.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.313 33.3% 6.4% 26.8% 43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.300 28.3% 8.8% 22.7% 41.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.278 26.1% 5.3% 28.4% 45.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ervin Santana
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $9,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank: of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 31 4.60 3.34 19.6% 7.4% 41.5% 28.4% 21.9%
L30 6 4.28 3.41 19.9% 4.6% 42.7% 22.5% 24.3%

There are two early and eight late games on the schedule today. Santana will be making his 32nd start of the season against an Indians’ team that has yet to clinch home-field advantage in the American League playoffs. Santana is listed as a large underdog on the road against an offense that is ranked third in team wOBA and second in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Options are limited in the early-only slate, but Santana is an easy fade.

Carlos Carrasco
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,200 Salary: $12,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 30 3.42 3.48 27.7% 5.8% 44.5% 29.3% 19.8%
L30 5 2.89 1.51 28.9% 2.2% 45.7% 16.3% 31.5%

Carrasco has really pitched well in his last five starts, posting a 2.89 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of only 2%. His price is expensive, but he’s clearly the top pitcher of the early slate. There’s a chance that the Indians will limit him to 90-95 pitches with the postseason starting next week, but that’s not enough of a concern to avoid him in this two-game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins draw the worst matchup of the slate and have the lowest implied run total on the board. Carlos Carrasco has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. If you want to play the BvP game, Joe Mauer is 12-for-27 with a home run and four doubles against Carrasco in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.325 0.313 0.193 32.4% 10.1% 20.4% 39.0% 2B $4,100 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.357 0.393 0.130 41.0% 12.0% 13.4% 49.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.314 0.286 0.148 26.6% 9.0% 14.5% 39.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,000 N/A N/A
4 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.375 0.341 0.267 33.0% 7.2% 17.4% 38.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.324 0.319 0.213 32.7% 6.3% 19.9% 34.2% 3B $3,300 3B/SS $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Max Kepler LEFT 0.354 0.325 0.216 36.0% 9.3% 16.5% 41.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.299 0.267 0.173 27.4% 6.2% 30.8% 40.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.309 0.316 0.154 34.6% 12.8% 29.2% 40.9% C $2,600 C $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.334 0.341 0.163 29.9% 13.7% 18.8% 39.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

The Indians have not fared well against Ervin Santana in the past. Their current roster has a combined .288 wOBA with 54 strikeouts in 258 plate appearances. With that said, this offense has been crushing everything in its path and we saw the Red Sox finally break out against Marco Estrada last night, who had similar numbers against them. Strictly due to pricing, I prefer to target the Reds/Brewers game for hitters, but the first six batters in the Indians’ lineup are all viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.345 0.346 0.239 32.1% 8.4% 12.9% 40.3% SS $4,400 SS $5,100 N/A N/A
2 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.357 0.330 0.250 33.1% 7.8% 20.5% 34.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.398 0.355 0.272 33.6% 8.4% 10.7% 38.6% 2B $4,200 2B/3B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.376 0.388 0.265 37.5% 13.9% 19.4% 34.6% 1B $4,300 1B $5,000 N/A N/A
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.372 0.374 0.279 42.8% 9.8% 20.8% 32.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.375 0.390 0.225 37.5% 14.0% 17.8% 32.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.306 0.306 0.193 32.5% 6.8% 20.1% 30.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.273 0.281 0.115 28.1% 9.5% 30.4% 50.6% C $2,400 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.256 0.307 0.049 23.0% 6.8% 9.1% 43.8% 3B $2,100 3B $2,400 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Lonnie Chisenhall, Jose Ramirez, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce, Carlos Santana

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 4:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Milwaukee
Article Image Sal Romano Article Image Brent Suter
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIL-155 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.320 0.306 38.3% 10.3% 19.9% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.248 0.296 32.0% 8.7% 17.4% 48.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.344 0.283 27.6% 8.2% 17.6% 56.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.297 28.1% 6.6% 20.1% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sal Romano
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.69 4.07 18.6% 9.2% 51.5% 32.4% 21.6%
L30 5 4.06 2.27 20.0% 6.9% 54.3% 30.5% 24.2%

Romano comes into today’s start in relatively good form. In his last five starts, he has a 2.27 ERA (4.06 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20%. He has a high ground ball rate and is able to induce a lot of soft and medium contact. A case can certainly be made for him as an SP2 in the early slate, especially if the Brewers roll out a right-handed heavy lineup. Romano has held righties to a .283 xwOBA on a 58% ground ball rate.

Quick Breakdown: Depending on what the Brewers’ lineup looks like, Romano could be viable as an SP2.

Brent Suter
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.33 3.32 16.5% 5.5% 43.3% 34.3% 22.9%
2017 12 4.34 3.41 19.5% 7.1% 47.0% 29.0% 24.0%
L30 3 3.99 1.50 18.0% 6.0% 54.1% 26.3% 39.5%

Suter is the likely choice for most people to use as their SP2. He’s favored and he’s pitching at home, which can only be said of two pitchers in the early slate. He’s also enjoyed a nice rookie season, posting a 3.41 ERA (4.43 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 20%. He has a high ground ball rate, good command, and he has induced a lot of soft and medium contact. The Reds have hit southpaws well this season, but their projected lineup isn’t all that intimidating, even in this ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Suter is my second favorite pitcher of the early slate, but he’ll likely be chalky on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they are facing a rookie pitcher. I said that about them last night and they ended up being the offense to own in that game. Today’s matchup against Brent Suter is a little more difficult, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under 32% hard contact rate. The right-handed hitters are viable, but are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.237 0.214 0.082 15.8% 3.1% 23.3% 47.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
2 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.395 0.365 0.252 45.1% 15.7% 24.3% 41.5% 3B $3,500 3B $4,400 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.421 0.408 0.271 32.5% 19.0% 15.1% 44.7% 1B $4,200 1B $5,600 N/A N/A
4 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.305 0.235 0.181 25.8% 5.0% 28.0% 47.7% 2B $3,300 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
5 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.378 0.353 0.298 33.7% 7.5% 21.8% 42.6% OF $2,200 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.334 0.308 0.236 38.5% 0.8% 22.0% 49.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Zach Vincej RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% SS $2,000 SS $2,100 N/A N/A
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.273 0.294 0.113 26.0% 11.1% 18.1% 58.3% C $2,600 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Sal Romano RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% P $7,100 P $6,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee

The Brewers draw a boom or bust matchup against Sal Romano. He has been tough on righties, but he has allowed a 38% hard contact rate to lefties this season. You have to imagine that the Brewers will see the splits and load their lineup with lefties, but you never quite know. The first six batters here are all viable and the lefties are my favorite bats in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Thames LEFT 0.387 0.353 0.296 42.6% 14.5% 28.0% 37.2% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Neil Walker SWITCH 0.367 0.359 0.207 34.1% 11.5% 16.4% 37.1% 2B $3,400 2B $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.352 0.335 0.219 38.1% 7.8% 21.2% 48.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.372 0.357 0.255 40.0% 10.6% 22.1% 41.9% 3B $3,400 3B $5,100 N/A N/A
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.369 0.341 0.224 37.6% 11.5% 30.5% 45.0% OF $3,900 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
6 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.300 0.302 0.191 33.5% 7.3% 19.6% 38.8% C $2,300 C $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.314 0.284 0.152 29.5% 5.8% 18.7% 51.2% SS $2,400 SS $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Brett Phillips LEFT 0.312 0.239 0.154 22.6% 11.9% 35.6% 41.9% OF $2,800 OF $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Brent Suter LEFT 0.305 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 23.1% 100.0% P $6,700 P $6,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Neil Walker, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pittsburgh Washington
Article Image Ivan Nova Article Image Edwin Jackson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-144 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.350 0.371 34.8% 4.3% 12.5% 43.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.339 0.306 32.7% 7.8% 19.0% 43.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.301 34.6% 4.0% 20.8% 47.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.408 0.374 33.0% 9.3% 14.6% 33.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ivan Nova
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.76 4.17 18.6% 4.1% 53.6% 34.4% 18.5%
2017 29 4.38 4.20 16.9% 4.1% 45.4% 34.7% 16.8%
L30 4 3.99 7.45 27.6% 8.1% 26.8% 35.7% 8.9%

Nova has flashed some strikeout upside in his last few starts, but his ground ball rate is disappearing right before our very eyes. He has always relied on a high ground ball rate and without it, he could have some trouble. The good news is that the Nationals have nothing to play for. He would benefit mightily if Washington decides to roll out their B-team. Even if that’s the case, I have a hard time targeting him on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Nova could see a boost if the Nationals sit a few of their starters, but he’s a risky play regardless.

Edwin Jackson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.23 5.89 16.4% 11.0% 40.2% 33.3% 13.3%
2017 11 5.15 4.96 16.7% 8.5% 38.3% 32.9% 23.7%
L30 5 5.78 7.71 15.8% 11.4% 34.1% 33.7% 18.1%

Over his last five starts, Jackson has been the pitcher that we’ve all come to know and love over the years. During that stretch, he has a 5.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16% and a walk rate of 11%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Even though this is a good pitcher’s park, this is a better game to target for the bats.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Jackson in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates may not have the most powerful lineup in baseball, but they draw one of the best matchups of the slate. In addition to a low walk rate and a low fly-ball rate, Edwin Jackson has allowed a .306 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .374 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. Andrew McCutchen has fared well against Jackson in the past, going 15-for-36 with three home runs and three doubles.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.333 0.144 29.7% 8.7% 11.5% 46.5% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
2 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.336 0.323 0.121 25.3% 5.3% 18.1% 48.1% OF $3,100 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.325 0.332 0.156 32.7% 9.9% 18.7% 44.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.344 0.328 0.214 32.1% 11.3% 19.0% 51.4% 1B $2,400 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.316 0.331 0.106 31.3% 10.7% 24.7% 56.2% 3B $3,000 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.307 0.314 0.160 27.5% 6.8% 12.3% 39.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,800 RF $5,600
7 Elias Diaz RIGHT 0.262 0.268 0.098 25.3% 6.1% 18.3% 54.5% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Max Moroff SWITCH 0.261 0.283 0.132 33.3% 7.1% 31.0% 38.0% SS $2,100 2B/SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Ivan Nova RIGHT 0.000 0.072 0.000 5.0% 0.0% 50.0% 71.4% P $6,700 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career and this season is no different. He has held righties to a .301 xwOBA with a 21% strikeout rate and a 48% ground ball rate. Left-handed hitters have had much more success against him — .371 xwOBA. We’ll have to see what type of lineup the Nationals roll out, but the lefties will be viable tonight against Nova.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.358 0.318 0.201 27.0% 6.4% 18.0% 50.4% SS $3,900 SS $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.455 0.438 0.350 35.9% 16.7% 16.4% 37.2% OF $3,900 OF $5,400 RF $10,400
3 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.383 0.369 0.225 34.7% 9.5% 10.9% 33.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.373 0.369 0.248 39.0% 7.5% 23.1% 47.0% 1B $3,400 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.379 0.355 0.211 33.3% 13.0% 14.5% 34.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,700 3B $9,200
6 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.313 0.318 0.170 29.9% 11.1% 23.7% 43.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.325 0.280 0.209 33.5% 6.6% 32.8% 42.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.264 0.298 0.109 29.6% 7.8% 18.8% 41.7% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Edwin Jackson RIGHT 0.117 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 66.7% 40.0% P $5,900 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, any other lefties

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Tampa Bay NY Yankees
Article Image Jacob Faria Article Image Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.298 20.0% 18.0% 18.9% 54.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.264 0.285 26.4% 7.9% 23.0% 54.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.295 34.6% 4.0% 25.5% 32.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.310 30.6% 7.7% 23.7% 54.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob Faria
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.29 3.20 23.3% 8.7% 39.4% 30.0% 20.6%
L30 0 4.84 0.00 11.1% 0.0% 25.0% 12.5% 25.0%

Faria has pitched well in his rookie season, posting a 4.29 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. The Rays decided to skip Alex Cobb last start of the season, so Faria will get one more crack at it. Unfortunately, he draws a difficult matchup against the Yankees on the road. New York is one of best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching and they are technically still alive in their hunt for the AL East crown.

Quick Breakdown: Given the matchup and ballpark, Faria is an easy fade.

Sonny Gray
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.32 5.69 18.2% 8.1% 53.9% 33.6% 16.1%
2017 25 3.88 3.38 23.4% 7.8% 54.5% 28.6% 16.3%
L30 5 3.44 3.41 27.7% 6.2% 51.2% 28.6% 10.7%

Gray is arguably the top pitching option of the slate. He’s had a tremendous year overall, posting a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He owns an elite ground ball rate and he generates a lot of soft and medium contact. The Rays may have some good lefties in their lineup, but their offense has struggled as a whole recently. This is a prime strikeout matchup for Gray, as seven of the Rays projected starters have a k-rate of at least 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw a difficult matchup against Sonny Gray. While they do see a ballpark boost playing in Yankee Stadium, there are better spots to target for hitters. Tampa Bay’s offense has gone cold over the last few weeks and we know they strikeout at a high rate. It’s also worth noting that Gray has held this current roster to a combined .298 wOBA in 183 plate appearances.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.360 0.289 0.214 34.3% 8.5% 21.9% 44.0% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.366 0.374 0.306 43.8% 13.4% 24.6% 27.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.329 0.313 0.165 33.2% 5.2% 14.6% 42.3% 3B $3,000 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.365 0.376 0.292 40.4% 13.3% 25.3% 33.1% 1B $2,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,900
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.349 0.346 0.257 36.0% 12.3% 30.0% 42.7% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
6 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.331 0.317 0.221 36.1% 6.6% 24.0% 38.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,800
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.276 0.303 0.168 33.0% 3.4% 17.9% 49.1% C $2,800 C $3,400 C $6,600
8 Brad Miller LEFT 0.289 0.320 0.120 37.7% 18.1% 27.4% 49.7% 2B $2,800 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.275 0.292 0.120 34.1% 3.4% 20.3% 50.0% SS $2,600 SS $2,800 SS $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kevin Kiermaier

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees are three games behind the Red Sox with four to play. While they aren’t likely to catch Boston, they will roll out their usual starters until the Red Sox clinch the division. They draw a boom or bust matchup tonight against Jacob Faria. While he has pitched well this season, he is still a rookie playing in the hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.330 0.188 32.2% 10.8% 18.4% 41.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.420 0.427 0.326 43.1% 16.2% 31.4% 35.6% OF $5,200 OF $5,700 RF $11,200
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.371 0.253 35.2% 6.7% 23.3% 43.9% C $3,700 C $4,800 C $9,300
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.366 0.289 0.246 25.9% 4.9% 11.9% 37.7% SS $3,500 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.347 0.323 0.133 32.3% 12.2% 23.7% 43.1% 1B $3,600 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Greg Bird LEFT 0.255 0.307 0.141 34.3% 12.2% 27.8% 30.3% 1B $3,300 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
7 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.327 0.294 0.158 29.0% 3.3% 20.1% 49.6% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
8 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.362 0.344 0.167 26.1% 12.0% 10.9% 45.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,000 CF $7,800
9 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.325 0.342 0.179 29.8% 14.5% 22.2% 37.7% 3B $3,600 3B $3,500 3B $6,900

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Atlanta Miami
Article Image Julio Teheran Article Image Dillon Peters
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA-107 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.352 36.5% 12.9% 17.5% 39.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.497 0.318 15.4% 11.1% 11.1% 76.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.280 24.4% 4.1% 20.7% 40.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.300 20.8% 12.7% 25.3% 59.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 5 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 3.21 22.0% 5.4% 39.1% 33.1% 17.7%
2017 30 4.87 4.52 18.9% 9.0% 39.7% 30.9% 21.0%
L30 5 4.67 2.25 20.9% 9.3% 42.5% 24.7% 24.7%

Teheran is an intriguing tournament play in this slate that lacks pitching options. I wouldn’t be too encouraged by his 2.25 ERA in his last five starts, but has a decent strikeout rate and he’s pitching in a ballpark that is hard to hit home runs in. His biggest weakness has always been left-handed hitters and the Marlins will likely only have three or four lefties in their lineup tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Teheran is viable in tournaments.

Dillon Peters
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,400
Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank: 19 of 20 Salary Rank: 15 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 4.35 5.40 22.7% 12.4% 63.3% 19.7% 21.3%
L30 4 4.35 5.40 22.7% 12.4% 63.3% 19.7% 21.3%

Peters is making his fifth career major league start. While his 23% strikeout rate looks appealing at first glance, he only had a 22% strikeout rate at the Double-A level earlier this season. It doesn’t help that he’s facing a Braves’ offense that is ranked ninth in team wOBA and fourth strikeout rate against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Peters is cheap and pitching at home, but there are better options tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves aren’t playing in the most hitter-friendly of ballparks, but the total for the game is set at 9.0 runs. This could be a sneaky shootout game to target in tournaments. Dillon Peters has had an elite ground ball rate thus far, but I expect that to come down quite a bit. Either way, we should target the hitters with higher fly-ball rates. A ground ball hitter against a ground ball pitcher is not the matchup we want to exploit.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.316 0.268 0.076 17.7% 7.5% 10.7% 61.5% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.431 0.381 0.244 37.8% 14.3% 10.2% 41.7% 2B $3,800 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.376 0.349 0.265 34.9% 8.3% 24.2% 38.4% 1B $4,100 1B/3B $5,500 1B $10,800
4 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.345 0.394 0.096 26.8% 14.3% 17.5% 56.1% C $3,100 C $4,000 C $7,600
5 Adonis Garcia RIGHT 0.269 0.276 0.136 26.3% 8.0% 12.0% 57.9% 3B $2,000 3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.461 0.368 0.300 36.4% 4.1% 20.5% 40.0% SS $2,700 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Lane Adams RIGHT 0.285 0.272 0.000 27.3% 17.9% 39.3% 40.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,400 LF $4,800
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.323 0.305 0.135 36.8% 12.7% 20.6% 46.3% SS $2,900 SS $2,800 SS $5,600
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.107 0.163 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 29.4% 28.6% P $8,100 P $8,400 P $16,200

Elite Plays – Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman, Tyler Flowers, Dansby Swanson

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins’ matchup against Julio Teheran is one of the easiest to break down. He has been tough on right-handed hitters throughout his career, but has always struggled with batters from the left side of the plate. On the season, he has allowed a .352 xwOBA, a 37% hard contact rate, and a 13% walk rate to lefties. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour are the top targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.322 0.259 0.073 18.0% 4.9% 13.9% 55.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,000
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.396 0.386 0.331 38.1% 10.9% 26.0% 43.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.359 0.363 0.174 37.2% 12.4% 19.8% 54.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.391 0.361 0.261 40.2% 8.7% 22.5% 44.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.383 0.398 0.250 43.8% 11.4% 20.3% 38.9% 1B $3,600 1B $4,500 1B $8,700
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.322 0.322 0.169 32.9% 4.9% 18.4% 49.8% C $2,800 C $3,900 C $7,600
7 Brian Anderson RIGHT 0.312 0.265 0.111 25.0% 13.5% 25.0% 62.5% 3B $2,300 3B $2,700 3B $5,200
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.296 0.296 0.044 19.0% 8.0% 11.9% 53.2% SS $2,400 SS $3,600 2B $7,200
9 Dillon Peters LEFT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 80.0% 0.0% P $6,200 P $5,200 P $10,400

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – YELLOW

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious