MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 11th
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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Minnesota at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET
| Minnesota | Detroit | ||||||||||
 | Hector Santiago |  | Matt Boyd | ||||||||
| LEFT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| DET-144 | 9.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.329 | 30.8% | 12.4% | 18.5% | 49.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.266 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 14.9% | 57.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 38.7% | 9.4% | 18.3% | 30.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.351 | 32.3% | 7.6% | 20.6% | 34.4% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Hector Santiago | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 24 | Salary Rank: | of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 34 | 5.05 | 4.62 | 18.4% | 10.1% | 34.2% | 49.9% | 37.0% | |
There are only two day games on the schedule today, but both are featured in the all-day slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Santiago has not pitched well since the start of last season, posting a 5.05 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18.4%. He walks too many batters and gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters, which doesn’t bode well for his matchup against the Tigers.
Quick Breakdown: Easy fade.
| Matt Boyd | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,400 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 24 | Salary Rank: | of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 19 | 4.47 | 4.88 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 38.5% | 44.4% | 30.8% | |
Boyd is a sizable favorite in this game, but that has more to do with the Tigers’ offense than anything else. Boyd has not fared well in the last two seasons with a 4.47 SIERA and a below-average strikeout rate. Like Santiago, he is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters. There are times when we can pick on the Twins’ offense, but this doesn’t look like one of them.
Quick Breakdown: Avoid in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Minnesota
There are a lot of reasons to like the Twins’ offense today, starting with the fact that Matt Boyd is an extreme fly-ball pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. Since the start of last season, Boyd has allowed a .351 wOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to righties. Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, and Jorge Polanco all hit from the right side and all boast a .360+ wOBA against left-handed pitching.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.383 | 0.313 | 39.7% | 9.5% | 20.8% | 32.2% | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $4,700 | ||
| 2 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.421 | 0.227 | 35.0% | 10.7% | 21.3% | 41.4% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,600 | ||
| 3 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.267 | 0.092 | 31.6% | 9.1% | 18.9% | 58.9% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $3,700 | ||
| 4 | Miguel Sano | RIGHT | 0.363 | 0.279 | 41.5% | 13.9% | 32.8% | 33.8% | 3B | $3,200 | 3B/OF | $4,300 | ||
| 5 | Jorge Polanco | RIGHT | 0.367 | 0.200 | 27.1% | 4.8% | 22.6% | 33.9% | SS | $2,600 | 2B/3B | $3,400 | ||
| 6 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.255 | 0.112 | 30.4% | 7.1% | 25.7% | 48.9% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $3,800 | ||
| 7 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.257 | 0.024 | 11.1% | 4.3% | 25.8% | 60.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 8 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.292 | 0.198 | 33.3% | 9.6% | 35.7% | 30.5% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,500 | ||
| 9 | Chris Gimenez | RIGHT | 0.325 | 0.189 | 33.3% | 9.5% | 33.3% | 47.8% | C | $2,000 | C | $2,600 |
Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano (Cash), Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton
Stackability – GREEN
Detroit
The Tigers have one of the best matchups on the schedule, so if you are playing in the all-day slate, you should get some exposure to their offense. Hector Santiago is a low strikeout pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact to right-handed hitters (38%). His walk rate spikes against righties, which means the Tigers should have no issue getting runners on base. A Tigers’ stack is viable in all formats.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Kinsler | RIGHT | 0.387 | 0.228 | 34.6% | 8.6% | 17.3% | 23.5% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,600 | ||
| 2 | Nick Castellanos | RIGHT | 0.278 | 0.221 | 37.5% | 4.6% | 27.7% | 29.5% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,000 | ||
| 3 | Miguel Cabrera | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.211 | 41.4% | 15.5% | 19.9% | 41.4% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $5,100 | ||
| 4 | Victor Martinez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.157 | 35.7% | 8.9% | 14.3% | 41.1% | C | $2,700 | 1B | $3,800 | ||
| 5 | Justin Upton | RIGHT | 0.317 | 0.199 | 36.9% | 8.7% | 29.9% | 37.8% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,400 | ||
| 6 | Mikie Mahtook | RIGHT | 0.302 | 0.157 | 33.3% | 2.7% | 21.9% | 37.0% | OF | $2,300 | OF | $2,900 | ||
| 7 | James McCann | RIGHT | 0.364 | 0.282 | 48.2% | 9.4% | 30.4% | 35.8% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,000 | ||
| 8 | JaCoby Jones | RIGHT | 0.260 | 0.238 | 55.6% | 0.0% | 57.1% | 11.1% | OF | $2,300 | 3B/SS | $3,000 | ||
| 9 | Jose Iglesias | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.167 | 29.8% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 38.1% | SS | $2,100 | 3B/SS | $2,800 |
Elite Plays – Ian Kinsler, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez (FD)
Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez (DK), Justin Upton, Mikie Mahtook, James McCann
Stackability – GREEN
Chicago White Sox at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET
| Chicago White Sox | Cleveland | ||||||||||
 | James Shields |  | Carlos Carrasco | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CLE-230 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.373 | 28.4% | 11.3% | 14.4% | 44.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.319 | 38.6% | 7.4% | 25.1% | 44.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.377 | 38.5% | 9.4% | 18.6% | 35.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.288 | 34.3% | 4.1% | 25.4% | 50.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| James Shields | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,200 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 12 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 24 | Salary Rank: | of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 34 | 5.15 | 5.73 | 16.6% | 10.3% | 39.9% | 38.9% | 33.6% | |
Shields pitched well in his first start of the season, but do you know who’s not buying it? This guy! He was the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball last season and he issued five walks in the opener. He has a below-average strikeout rate, an above-average walk rate, and he gives up hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. There is a reason why he is a massive underdog today against the Indians.
Quick Breakdown: Here is an oxymoron – playing Shields and winning in DFS.
| Carlos Carrasco | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,900 | Salary: | $9,800 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 1 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 24 | Salary Rank: | of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 26 | 3.41 | 3.32 | 25.3% | 5.6% | 47.6% | 31.5% | 36.2% | |
Carrasco pitched well in his first start of the season, especially when you consider the fact that it was in Texas against a talented Rangers’ offense. He has been outstanding since the start of last year, posting a 3.41 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.3%. He doesn’t walk many batters and he induces a healthy number of ground balls. He will be licking his chops today, as the White Sox only have three hitters with at least a .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching.
Quick Breakdown: Top pitching option in the entire all-day slate.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox will likely end up being one of the worst offenses in the American League this season. They lost Adam Eaton to the Nationals and basically returned the same disappointing group of batters from a year ago. Carlos Carrasco has above-average strikeout and ground ball rates and he is tough on both left and right-handed hitters. I like to use Jose Abreu as a one-off target in tournaments, but not against ground ball pitchers.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.131 | 22.8% | 4.5% | 19.8% | 49.7% | SS | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $4,200 | ||
| 2 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.303 | 0.148 | 30.6% | 3.1% | 27.4% | 51.3% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $4,500 | ||
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.340 | 0.157 | 29.1% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 43.5% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,800 | ||
| 4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.157 | 31.0% | 6.0% | 17.6% | 46.1% | 1B | $3,000 | 1B | $5,000 | ||
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.224 | 31.2% | 9.3% | 23.0% | 37.3% | 3B | $3,400 | 1B/3B | $4,900 | ||
| 6 | Cody Asche | LEFT | 0.264 | 0.132 | 34.1% | 7.0% | 25.6% | 37.4% | OF | $2,200 | 3B/OF | $4,400 | ||
| 7 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.141 | 31.1% | 6.8% | 26.0% | 54.5% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,100 | ||
| 8 | Geovany Soto | RIGHT | 0.347 | 0.259 | 45.5% | 9.1% | 24.2% | 33.3% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,600 | ||
| 9 | Jacob May | SWITCH | 0.080 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 75.0% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $4,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Cleveland
Let’s quickly recap why we like targeting hitters against James Shields – he has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he struggles with both left and right-handed hitters. Oh, and he gives up a lot of home runs, which I hear are pretty valuable in DFS. Since the start of last season, Shields has allowed a .370+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. If you are playing in the all-day slate, you will want some exposure to the Indians.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.387 | 0.283 | 39.7% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 38.3% | 1B | $3,800 | 1B | $5,100 | ||
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.354 | 0.152 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 12.1% | 49.1% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $4,900 | ||
| 3 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.208 | 0.000 | 31.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 55.3% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $5,200 | ||
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.265 | 37.9% | 10.4% | 19.8% | 38.6% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $5,200 | ||
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.349 | 0.149 | 25.9% | 7.1% | 8.9% | 39.8% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/OF | $4,700 | ||
| 6 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.185 | 0.146 | 31.0% | 3.5% | 25.4% | 38.0% | C | $2,200 | C | $3,500 | ||
| 7 | Yandy Diaz | RIGHT | 0.287 | 0.083 | 77.8% | 7.7% | 23.1% | 66.7% | 3B | $2,200 | 3B | $3,300 | ||
| 8 | Tyler Naquin | LEFT | 0.377 | 0.219 | 40.1% | 9.2% | 31.4% | 43.6% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $4,100 | ||
| 9 | Abraham Almonte | SWITCH | 0.284 | 0.109 | 32.3% | 7.0% | 20.9% | 45.7% | OF | $2,200 | OF | $3,800 |
Elite Plays – Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion
Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez
Stackability – GREEN
NY Mets at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
| NY Mets | Philadelphia | ||||||||||
 | Matt Harvey |  | Clay Buchholz | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| NYM-125 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.353 | 32.7% | 7.2% | 18.4% | 30.2% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.342 | 34.8% | 11.5% | 14.5% | 38.8% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.315 | 27.5% | 4.5% | 19.4% | 52.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.305 | 27.4% | 7.1% | 16.9% | 42.2% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Matt Harvey | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,700 | Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $16,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 4 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 18 | 4.27 | 4.71 | 18.9% | 5.9% | 40.7% | 34.5% | 30.2% | |
Harvey had a disappointing season in 2016, but there are reasons to be excited about his 2017 campaign. His velocity is up slightly from where it was at this point last year and he made quick work of the Braves in his season debut. While I’m a Harvey believer, we seem to be paying for his 2015 season, where he was dominant. Before targeting him in DFS, I’d like to see his price come down OR his strikeout rate come up. The Phillies may not have the most potent offense in baseball, but pitchers can get into trouble in Citizens Bank Park. I plan to be massively underweight on the field and if it burns me, so be it.
Quick Breakdown: I see the appeal, but not for me.
| Clay Buchholz | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $5,500 | Salary: | $10,800 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 22 | 5.10 | 4.86 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 40.5% | 43.2% | 31.1% | |
Buchholz is a shell of his former self. Since the start of last season, he has a 5.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.7%. He gives up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact to left-handed hitters. His struggles against lefties doesn’t bode well for tonight’s matchup, as the Mets can and will throw seven or eight left-handed batters at him.
Quick Breakdown: Way more risk than potential reward.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
This seems like a perfect spot to stack the Mets. They are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark, they are facing a pitcher that gives up a lot of fly balls, and they have plenty of left-handed hitters in their lineup. Clay Buchholz is a below-average strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .342 wOBA and a 34.8% hard contact rate to lefties. He has also nearly walked (11.5%) as many lefties as he has struck out (14.5%).
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.276 | 0.124 | 25.0% | 6.8% | 20.0% | 35.1% | 3B | $2,600 | 3B/SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
| 2 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.342 | 0.202 | 35.2% | 6.6% | 18.2% | 34.3% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,800 | SS | $7,500 |
| 3 | Yoenis Cespedes | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.244 | 37.8% | 7.5% | 20.1% | 36.6% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $4,500 | LF | $8,700 |
| 4 | Curtis Granderson | LEFT | 0.344 | 0.233 | 36.7% | 12.9% | 19.5% | 35.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $4,000 | CF | $7,800 |
| 5 | Jay Bruce | LEFT | 0.369 | 0.289 | 40.3% | 9.1% | 20.2% | 36.1% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 6 | Neil Walker | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.161 | 34.0% | 8.9% | 20.1% | 36.0% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 7 | Lucas Duda | LEFT | 0.311 | 0.182 | 36.0% | 9.9% | 22.5% | 34.0% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 8 | Rene Rivera | RIGHT | 0.237 | 0.098 | 28.6% | 5.4% | 26.2% | 47.7% | C | $2,100 | C | $2,400 | C | $4,800 |
| 9 | Matt Harvey | RIGHT | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 31.8% | 60.0% | P | $8,700 | P | $8,300 | P | $16,200 |
Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson
Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Yoenis Cespedes, Neil Walker, Lucas Duda
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Philadelphia
If you look at the table above, you can see that Matt Harvey has a ground ball rate of 52% against righties, but only 30% against lefties. That is a massive difference and one that we should take note of. In addition to the higher fly ball rate, Harvey has allowed a .353 wOBA and a 32.7% hard contact rate to lefties since the start of last season. I don’t like to predict home runs, but something tells me Odubel Herrera or Michael Saunders will take Harvey deep.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.336 | 0.121 | 27.1% | 11.5% | 18.1% | 53.4% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 2 | Howie Kendrick | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.142 | 35.6% | 7.7% | 17.2% | 58.3% | OF | $2,800 | 2B/OF | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,400 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.164 | 29.5% | 9.6% | 19.0% | 42.5% | OF | $3,500 | 2B/OF | $3,900 | IF/OF | $7,800 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.293 | 0.150 | 29.0% | 6.5% | 16.9% | 44.6% | 3B | $2,800 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,100 |
| 5 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.201 | 38.6% | 11.2% | 27.9% | 37.9% | OF | $2,500 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
| 6 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.315 | 0.223 | 36.3% | 5.0% | 23.5% | 38.5% | 1B | $2,000 | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $7,200 |
| 7 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.175 | 33.2% | 5.8% | 27.3% | 47.7% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,100 | C | $6,000 |
| 8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.306 | 0.187 | 27.8% | 4.9% | 23.2% | 40.2% | SS | $2,600 | 3B/SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,400 |
| 9 | Clay Buchholz | RIGHT | 0.173 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 25.0% | 75.0% | 0.0% | P | $6,200 | P | $5,500 | P | $10,800 |
Elite Plays – Michael Saunders
Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Odubel Herrera
Stackability – ORANGE
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
| Cincinnati | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||
 | Rookie Davis |  | Jameson Taillon | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| PIT-190 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.613 | 37.5% | 14.3% | 28.6% | 25.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.308 | 35.0% | 5.2% | 17.8% | 51.1% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 50.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.287 | 34.6% | 3.7% | 23.4% | 54.7% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Rookie Davis | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $4,900 | Salary: | $4,700 | Salary: | $9,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 1 | 4.21 | 12.00 | 25.0% | 12.5% | 30.0% | 50.0% | 30.0% | |
Davis is making his second career major league start. He’s not a big time prospect and he had a strikeout rate under 17% in each of his last two seasons in the minors. We shouldn’t put any stock into his splits seeing as how we have a sample size of one game, but we know that he doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for from our pitchers in DFS.
Quick Breakdown: As a massive underdog on the road, avoid.
| Jameson Taillon | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $16,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 7 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 19 | 3.60 | 3.16 | 20.5% | 4.5% | 52.8% | 26.5% | 34.9% | |
Taillon was truly impressive in his first start of the season. He managed to quiet the Red Sox offense and he managed to do it in Fenway Park, which is one of the toughest ballparks to pitch in. If we see more of that, he could be primed for a big season. Taillon has a slightly above-average strikeout rate and he comes into the game as a huge favorite at home against the Reds. Cincinnati may have knocked around Tyler Glasnow (well technically, he just walked everyone), but they aren’t an offense that we need to shy away from when it comes to pitcher selection.
Quick Breakdown: Playable in all formats. One of the top pitchers in the slate.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, we typically target the Reds’ offense for two hitters when they are facing a right-handed pitcher – Billy Hamilton for his stolen base upside and Joey Votto for his power against righties. Both batters are secondary options tonight against Jameson Taillon, who boasts a slightly above-average strikeout rate and a 53% ground ball rate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.083 | 19.6% | 8.8% | 19.2% | 47.4% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.068 | 18.4% | 1.9% | 13.4% | 45.1% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/SS | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.426 | 0.257 | 41.2% | 17.2% | 15.7% | 37.4% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $4,500 | 1B | $8,700 |
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.255 | 38.5% | 5.7% | 27.1% | 34.2% | OF | $3,400 | 1B/OF | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,500 |
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.144 | 34.2% | 7.4% | 24.1% | 38.9% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $3,300 | 3B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.341 | 0.176 | 33.3% | 7.6% | 22.3% | 52.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,800 |
| 7 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.159 | 30.3% | 6.9% | 16.3% | 38.8% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,200 | SS | $6,300 |
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.322 | 0.128 | 30.9% | 9.9% | 14.2% | 45.1% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,500 | C | $4,800 |
| 9 | Rookie Davis | RIGHT | 1.265 | 1.000 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | P | $4,900 | P | $4,700 | P | $9,200 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto
Stackability – RED
Pittsburgh
The Pirates had a lot of baserunners last night, they just couldn’t buy a hit when they had runners in scoring position. I’m going back to the well tonight, as they face Rookie Davis, who is only making his second career major league start (yes, I know he’s a rookie and his name is Rookie). With one of the highest implied run totals on the board, we can load up on hitters from both sides of the plate.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Frazier | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.121 | 32.1% | 8.8% | 15.6% | 43.1% | SS | $2,300 | 2B/OF | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 2 | Starling Marte | RIGHT | 0.356 | 0.150 | 35.4% | 4.5% | 17.4% | 48.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,500 | CF | $8,800 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.167 | 36.4% | 9.7% | 21.8% | 35.3% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,400 |
| 4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.197 | 36.2% | 8.8% | 18.0% | 38.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,200 | LF | $8,000 |
| 5 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.153 | 35.0% | 13.7% | 12.2% | 48.5% | 1B | $2,500 | OF | $3,100 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.309 | 0.077 | 24.8% | 14.2% | 18.8% | 54.7% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,000 | C | $6,000 |
| 7 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.100 | 24.5% | 7.5% | 14.9% | 50.6% | SS | $2,100 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 8 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.289 | 0.093 | 26.3% | 3.6% | 14.6% | 45.7% | 2B | $2,600 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 9 | Jameson Taillon | RIGHT | 0.063 | 0.000 | 11.8% | 0.0% | 46.9% | 58.3% | P | $8,000 | P | $8,400 | P | $16,200 |
Elite Plays – Starling Marte, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco
Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
St. Louis at Washington – 7:05 PM ET
| St. Louis | Washington | ||||||||||
 | Lance Lynn |  | Gio Gonzalez | ||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| WAS-135 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.249 | 25.0% | 6.7% | 13.3% | 58.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.285 | 28.7% | 6.0% | 19.1% | 57.0% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.253 | 20.0% | 0.0% | 28.6% | 20.0% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.324 | 34.1% | 8.0% | 23.5% | 45.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Lance Lynn | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,900 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 17 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 14 of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 1 | 3.66 | 3.38 | 18.2% | 4.6% | 47.1% | 29.4% | 23.5% | |
It’s good to see Lynn back in action after making his way back from Tommy John surgery. He may not be an elite strikeout pitcher, but he has ad a strikeout rate of at least 20% in every season since coming into the majors in 2011. His velocity looked good in his first start of the season and he ended up striking four batters out in five and one-third innings against the Cubs. Like most right-handed pitchers, his biggest struggles have come against left-handed hitters. The Nationals just so happen to have two of the best lefties in all of baseball and Lynn has to face them on the road.
Quick Breakdown: Not a bad play at the price, but not on my radar in any format.
| Gio Gonzalez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $15,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 24 | Salary Rank: | 6 of 24 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | FB% | HC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 3.96 | 4.57 | 22.4% | 7.7% | 47.6% | 29.5% | 32.7% | |
Gonzalez may have had a high ERA last season, but the peripheral stats looked good. He finished the year with a 3.96 SIERA, a strikeout rate of 22.4%, and a ground ball rate of 47.6%. The Cardinals weren’t nearly as good against lefties as they were against righties last season, but they did bring in Dexter Fowler to help with that. Gonzalez is the preferred pitcher in this game, but you never know when he is going to get lit up. There are better pitching options at similar price points.
Quick Breakdown: Deep GPP flier at best.
Batter Grind Down
St. Louis
Gio Gonzalez doesn’t have terrible numbers against right-handed hitters, but he allowed a .324 wOBA and a 34% hard contact rate last season. He also walked more righties and gave up a higher fly ball rate. While I won’t be targeting Gonzalez, I won’t have much exposure to the Cardinals’ offense either. Dexter Fowler and Stephen Piscotty both have a .370+ wOBA against southpaws, but are secondary options in the outfield.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dexter Fowler | SWITCH | 0.372 | 0.178 | 34.6% | 13.2% | 14.6% | 51.9% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $4,300 | CF | $8,400 |
| 2 | Aledmys Diaz | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.145 | 28.7% | 8.8% | 12.4% | 47.2% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,600 |
| 3 | Matt Carpenter | LEFT | 0.342 | 0.169 | 29.6% | 12.2% | 18.8% | 34.4% | 2B | $3,000 | 1B/3B | $4,200 | 1B | $8,000 |
| 4 | Stephen Piscotty | RIGHT | 0.405 | 0.248 | 28.1% | 13.1% | 15.9% | 37.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $4,000 | RF | $7,800 |
| 5 | Jhonny Peralta | RIGHT | 0.222 | 0.122 | 25.8% | 4.5% | 23.9% | 40.3% | SS | $2,700 | 3B/SS | $3,200 | 3B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Yadier Molina | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.113 | 28.7% | 8.4% | 12.9% | 49.6% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,800 |
| 7 | Randal Grichuk | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.238 | 36.7% | 9.3% | 25.7% | 34.4% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 8 | Jedd Gyorko | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.170 | 33.9% | 9.6% | 18.6% | 36.6% | 3B | $2,500 | 2B/3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,900 |
| 9 | Lance Lynn | RIGHT | P | $6,900 | P | $6,300 | P | $12,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty
Stackability – RED
Washington
The additions of Adam Eaton and Adam Lind really bolster this lineup when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. Lance Lynn has allowed a career .340 wOBA to lefties, which bodes well for Eaton, Lind, Bryce Harper, and Daniel Murphy. Even though Nationals Park isn’t the most hitter-friendly park around, all four of the lefties are still in a great spot tonight. You can stack the lefties or use them as one-off targets in both cash games and tournaments.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDFT Pos. | FDFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Adam Eaton | LEFT | 0.329 | 0.076 | 30.1% | 10.1% | 14.0% | 65.1% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,100 | CF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Anthony Rendon | RIGHT | 0.360 | 0.142 | 34.5% | 17.1% | 15.5% | 35.6% | 3B | $3,000 | 2B/3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Bryce Harper | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.211 | 31.1% | 13.8% | 27.0% | 42.2% | OF | $4,800 | OF | $5,000 | RF | $9,900 |
| 4 | Daniel Murphy | LEFT | 0.390 | 0.224 | 31.0% | 5.7% | 10.3% | 35.2% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B/3B | $4,500 | 2B | $8,800 |
| 5 | Adam Lind | LEFT | 0.275 | 0.120 | 19.4% | 5.6% | 27.8% | 38.9% | 1B | $2,400 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 6 | Jayson Werth | RIGHT | 0.444 | 0.320 | 46.9% | 12.7% | 19.0% | 36.5% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Matt Wieters | SWITCH | 0.280 | 0.113 | 34.2% | 9.4% | 20.5% | 37.8% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,300 |
| 8 | Stephen Drew | LEFT | 0.217 | 0.063 | 33.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 40.0% | SS | $2,000 | 2B/SS | $2,800 | 2B | $5,400 |
| 9 | Gio Gonzalez | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 25.0% | 0.0% | 38.5% | 40.0% | P | $8,900 | P | $8,100 | P | $15,600 |