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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, August 1st

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-08-02 01:26:34

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Detroit at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Detroit NY Yankees
Article Image Anibal Sanchez Article Image CC Sabathia
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-180 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.338 0.305 29.6% 9.1% 20.5% 39.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.274 17.5% 9.4% 22.9% 54.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.378 0.340 37.7% 5.9% 20.1% 38.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.298 29.0% 8.5% 18.6% 49.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Anibal Sanchez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 4.39 5.87 20.2% 7.9% 39.6% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 7 4.26 6.18 20.7% 6.6% 37.0% 38.1% 17.0%
L30 5 4.15 5.53 20.8% 5.0% 37.9% 37.5% 18.2%

Welcome to the Tuesday MLB Grind Down. I’m covering for Notorious today on this 15-game slate. Things should be interesting, as we have a couple of aces going but also plenty to pick on down at the low end. Let’s go ahead and dive right in with Anibal Sanchez. He’s made just seven starts this season because he primarily worked out of the bullpen to start the year. He owns a 6.18 ERA, 20.7% K rate and 6.6% BB rate. He’s allowing way more hard contact than you would want to see out of your pitcher at 38.1%. That would be okay if he didn’t have an incredibly low ground ball rate at 37.9%. That’s bad news against a Yankees offense that owns a .344 wOBA, 115 wRC+ and 22.6% K rate against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: On a full slate, we can safely avoid Sanchez today.

CC Sabathia
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 14 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.35 3.91 19.8% 8.5% 50.1% 24.7% 24.0%
2017 17 4.67 3.66 18.7% 9.1% 50.4% 31.3% 22.4%
L30 4 5.99 4.50 15.0% 15.0% 52.7% 25.5% 32.7%

C.C. Sabathia has a rather difficult matchup against the Tigers today. He owns a 3.66 ERA, 18.7% K rate and 9.1% BB rate through 17 starts. The thing Sabathia does best is generate ground balls at 50.4%. The main issue here is the matchup. The Tigers own the best wOBA in the league against LH pitching at .361. You could make the case that J.D. Martinez and Alex Avila shipped out of town changes that. I just don’t see the need to go here on a full slate.

Quick Breakdown: With the Tigers’ recent changes, you could make a case for Sabathia in tournaments, but he’s from being a safe option.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are pretty mediocre options today against Sabathia. He owns a .284 wOBA vs. LH and .313 wOBA vs. RH hitting. If attacking here, we slightly prefer RH hitters, as Sabathia owns a 17.5% hard contact rate vs. LH compared to 29% vs. RH hitting. That mainly leaves us targeting Ian Kinsler and Nick Castellanos, but neither is a cash game play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.347 0.363 0.256 45.7% 8.2% 9.4% 24.3% 2B $3,400 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.402 0.421 0.380 52.1% 8.0% 19.0% 39.7% 3B $2,700 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.426 0.368 0.227 44.8% 10.5% 19.8% 43.1% OF $3,900 OF $5,000 LF $9,600
4 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.365 0.414 0.097 46.3% 14.3% 21.4% 40.7% 1B $3,600 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Mikie Mahtook RIGHT 0.335 0.343 0.235 49.2% 2.4% 21.4% 38.1% OF $2,800 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
6 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.328 0.281 0.069 29.5% 8.9% 13.9% 55.7% C $2,800 1B $3,200 1B $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.451 0.448 0.375 44.0% 8.5% 19.7% 26.0% C $2,600 C $4,000 C $7,600
8 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.269 0.265 0.114 53.1% 6.3% 27.1% 58.1% OF $2,200 2B/OF $2,800 IF/OF $5,600
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.277 0.268 0.077 21.0% 1.5% 6.0% 49.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,500 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

NY Yankees

The Yankees have one of the highest implied team totals on the slate. Hopefully, they’ll go overlooked against Anibal Sanchez. He owns a .338 wOBA vs. LH and .378 wOBA vs. RH hitting. His 38.1% hard contact rate will not play well against this offense. Aaron Judge is the top option with a .439 wOBA vs. RH pitching, but I find myself mainly looking for cheap fill-in options here. If Jacoby Ellsbury is in the lineup (he hit leadoff yesterday), he’s incredibly cheap across the industry. He owns a 42% hard hit rate the past 15 days. With the rest of the Yankees, you won’t get much of a discount, but they are still plenty stackable in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.373 0.348 0.233 36.6% 12.1% 18.9% 40.6% OF $4,200 OF $5,300 LF $10,400
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.332 0.344 0.263 48.8% 3.3% 28.3% 39.0% OF $3,000 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.439 0.440 0.333 47.2% 14.8% 31.3% 38.6% OF $4,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.359 0.214 36.1% 7.7% 23.9% 43.9% C $3,600 C $5,100 C $10,000
5 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.328 0.348 0.224 30.5% 10.0% 24.6% 48.5% OF $2,500 1B $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.374 0.280 0.239 25.9% 4.1% 13.1% 39.8% SS $3,600 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.356 0.336 0.134 30.4% 13.2% 23.1% 44.4% 1B $3,300 3B $3,400 3B $6,600
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.316 0.346 0.181 28.7% 13.1% 21.6% 39.3% 3B $3,300 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.278 0.243 0.081 19.2% 2.4% 13.1% 48.9% 2B $2,700 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,800

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier and Gary Sanchez

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Kansas City at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Kansas City Baltimore
Article Image Ian Kennedy Article Image Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-120 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.311 0.327 38.8% 8.9% 20.5% 31.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.341 0.341 33.5% 8.3% 15.6% 32.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.318 36.1% 8.3% 23.7% 38.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.317 0.311 29.5% 8.4% 24.7% 34.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ian Kennedy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.27 3.68 22.5% 8.1% 33.2% 36.4% 18.6%
2017 19 4.72 4.43 21.2% 9.7% 38.3% 39.5% 13.1%
L30 5 4.02 3.68 23.7% 6.8% 39.5% 37.0% 12.4%

Ian Kennedy owns a 4.43 ERA, 21.2% K rate and 9.7% BB rate through 19 starts this season. He’s allowing a 39.5% hard contact rate, which is paired with a 38.3% ground ball rate. Even if we look at Kennedy’s 33 starts from last season, he has essentially the same profile. The Orioles check in at 22.1% K rate, .320 wOBA and 96 wRC+ vs. RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: There’s plenty of good pitching available today, which makes Kennedy a little too risky for me to have interest.

Dylan Bundy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 20 4.93 4.53 18.6% 7.9% 31.4% 34.9% 18.2%
L30 4 4.68 8.41 20.4% 6.5% 27.7% 34.9% 7.6%

Dylan Bundy owns a 4.53 ERA, 18.6% K rate and 7.9% BB rate through 20 starts this season. He generates an incredibly low amount of ground balls at just 31.4%. That’s paired with a 34.9% hard contact rate. The Royals check in at 20.7% K rate, .312 wOBA and 90 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy can safely be avoided on a 15-game slate. The risk outweighs the reward here by quite a bit.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

If you want to attack Bundy, the way to do it is with LH hitters, as he owns a .341 wOBA vs. LH hitters and a 15.6% K rate. Those same numbers against RH hitters are .317 wOBA and 24.7% K rate. The main issue is that the Royals don’t necessarily have a lot to offer in that regard. Eric Hosmer owns a .377 wOBA vs. RH, while Mike Moustakas checks in at .371. They are the best options here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.338 0.317 0.174 31.7% 4.1% 12.7% 37.6% 2B $3,700 2B $4,400 IF/OF $8,700
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.323 0.339 0.118 31.3% 6.4% 10.8% 51.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
3 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.342 0.320 0.138 30.3% 8.8% 18.6% 45.7% OF $3,700 OF $5,100 CF $9,900
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.377 0.374 0.189 32.9% 9.7% 17.4% 50.0% 1B $3,700 1B $5,500 1B $10,800
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.365 0.355 0.254 40.3% 3.5% 20.0% 30.4% C $3,400 C $4,900 C $9,600
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.371 0.351 0.304 36.2% 4.9% 16.3% 30.8% 3B $3,600 3B $5,200 3B $10,000
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.270 0.301 0.184 33.9% 9.3% 33.2% 33.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.238 0.244 0.079 26.3% 1.7% 19.1% 40.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.263 0.301 0.123 31.4% 8.3% 22.0% 40.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,700 LF $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Baltimore

The fact that Ian Kennedy owns a 39.5% hard contact rate and 38.3% ground ball rate says that we could hunt for a home run here. My favorite option is Manny Machado, as he owns a 37.1% hard contact rate vs. RH pitching. Adam Jones and Chris Davis make some sense as well, but the Orioles are best suited as low-owned one-off plays or a full stack in large tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.330 0.310 0.184 31.8% 3.5% 17.4% 46.0% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.309 0.343 0.180 37.1% 9.1% 18.6% 42.5% 3B $3,600 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.375 0.318 0.238 31.7% 4.5% 20.6% 40.2% 2B $4,000 2B $5,200 2B $10,200
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.337 0.335 0.269 45.0% 13.7% 37.1% 31.3% 1B $3,600 1B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.399 0.349 0.261 33.6% 6.5% 25.1% 51.6% OF $3,000 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Seth Smith LEFT 0.338 0.349 0.189 35.3% 9.2% 21.1% 42.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.311 0.316 0.159 34.5% 5.7% 25.9% 44.5% C $3,100 C $4,000 C $7,800
8 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.309 0.307 0.155 45.3% 5.8% 32.9% 47.6% SS $2,400 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.269 0.246 0.118 22.0% 2.2% 30.0% 38.6% OF $2,000 OF $3,000 RF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado and Adam Jones

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati Pittsburgh
Article Image Homer Bailey Article Image Jameson Taillon
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-170 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.379 0.366 36.5% 9.2% 15.4% 48.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.312 29.5% 7.2% 16.4% 53.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.414 0.353 21.5% 6.2% 18.5% 46.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.277 34.0% 4.1% 25.4% 51.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Homer Bailey
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $4,000 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 29 of 29 Salary Rank: 29 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 7 5.25 8.37 12.1% 8.5% 48.8% 27.3% 18.0%
L30 5 5.01 5.34 12.1% 6.8% 49.5% 24.8% 19.1%

Homer Bailey has not been good this season. He owns an 8.37 ERA, 12.1% K rate and 8.5% BB rate through seven starts. He’s allowing a .379 wOBA vs. LH and .414 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. He’ll face a Pirates offense that checks in at 18.8% K rate, .307 wOBA and 88 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Bailey can safely be avoided against a Pirates offense that is below average but also ranks 29th in K rate vs. RH pitching.

Jameson Taillon
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 3.61 3.38 20.3% 4.1% 52.4% 33.2% 17.3%
2017 14 3.99 4.03 22.0% 7.5% 51.6% 29.6% 23.9%
L30 4 3.44 7.36 26.1% 5.7% 47.5% 33.9% 20.3%

Jameson Taillon owns a 4.03 ERA, 22% K rate and 7.5% BB rate through 14 starts this season. Taillon can best be described as a ground-ball pitcher at 51.6%. He owns a .322 wOBA vs. LH and .310 wOBA vs. RH. He somewhat struggles to strike out LH hitters at 16.4% but is above average against RH hitters at 25.4%. He’ll take on a Reds offense that checks in at 21.1% K rate, .327 wOBA and 97 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Tonight’s slate lacks mid-range pitching. In cash games, you’ll most likely want to use one of the aces, but Taillon makes sense as an SP2 or even a tournament option as an SP1.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

As you can probably imagine, I don’t have much love for the Reds tonight. If you insist on going here, you’ll want to target LH hitters, as Taillon owns a 16.4% K rate vs. them. That leaves Joey Votto as the obvious best option with a .416 wOBA vs. RH pitching. You can also make a case for Scooter Gennett here, as he owns a .431 wOBA vs. RH. You really don’t have to go here though on a slate that includes a game at Coors Field and plenty of other offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.300 0.266 0.081 17.9% 8.9% 20.3% 45.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.431 0.359 0.312 41.5% 6.3% 20.7% 41.1% 2B $2,800 2B/OF $4,100 2B $8,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.423 0.262 36.2% 17.2% 11.7% 36.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.337 0.289 0.247 34.2% 5.1% 27.7% 30.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.341 0.336 0.193 29.3% 11.0% 23.2% 43.9% 3B $2,900 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.330 0.367 0.257 39.8% 9.8% 22.8% 43.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.255 0.268 0.077 19.7% 1.8% 14.3% 42.9% SS $2,400 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.311 0.325 0.128 34.6% 7.5% 14.9% 43.3% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.000 0.086 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 14.3% 100.0% P $4,000 P $4,200 P $8,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a higher-than-normal run total for a below average offense. It makes sense though against Homer Bailey, who owns a .379 wOBA vs. LH and .414 wOBA vs. RH hitting. If there were less options available tonight, this would be one of the top stacks. It’s still a great place to search for value plays though. Starling Marte is the top option with a .320 wOBA vs. RH pitching, but he also owns a 51.9% ground ball rate. Josh Bell, David Freese and Andrew McCutchen also make sense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.320 0.280 0.096 23.6% 4.9% 23.5% 51.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.331 0.326 0.138 32.4% 5.1% 15.8% 35.7% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.349 0.357 0.179 34.3% 10.5% 17.4% 41.1% OF $4,300 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.341 0.333 0.231 34.5% 10.2% 21.3% 51.2% 1B $3,800 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.346 0.106 30.3% 12.1% 20.1% 55.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 3B $6,900
6 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.314 0.332 0.113 29.7% 8.5% 11.6% 49.0% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.337 0.341 0.137 33.3% 10.5% 20.0% 48.6% C $2,600 C $2,600 C $5,200
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.326 0.315 0.151 27.2% 10.5% 14.9% 45.9% SS $2,400 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Jameson Taillon RIGHT 0.055 0.119 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 38.9% 87.5% P $7,400 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Starling Marte

Secondary Plays – Josh Bell, David Freese and Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Washington Miami
Article Image Max Scherzer Article Image Chris O’Grady
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-190 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.293 30.5% 8.9% 26.1% 32.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.219 0.252 22.2% 12.1% 30.3% 27.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.193 0.210 27.9% 3.5% 40.6% 36.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.376 0.394 38.1% 13.1% 18.0% 28.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Max Scherzer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $13,200 Salary: $25,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 3.05 2.96 31.5% 6.2% 33.0% 30.1% 22.2%
2017 21 2.74 2.23 35.9% 6.4% 37.1% 28.0% 19.8%
L30 5 2.76 2.84 39.1% 9.4% 37.9% 37.9% 15.2%

Last night Gio Gonzalez carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Marlins. Tonight, Max Scherzer gets a chance to square off with that very same offense. Scherzer owns a 2.23 ERA, 35.9% K rate and 6.4% BB rate through 21 starts this season. He’s pitching at an elite level right now. Especially against RH hitters, whom he owns a .193 wOBA and 40.6% K rate against over the last two seasons. The one leak in Scherzer’s game is that he checks in at .316 wOBA vs. LH and 26.1% K rate. The good news is that there really aren’t many LH bats that we have to fear in this Marlins lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite option today in all formats. He has one of the better matchups out of the group of aces pitching today.

Chris O’Grady
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $9,000
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 27 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 4 5.07 3.68 22.3% 12.8% 28.3% 33.3% 13.3%
L30 4 5.07 3.68 22.3% 12.8% 28.3% 33.3% 13.3%

Chris O’Grady owns a 3.68 ERA, 22.3% K rate and 12.8% BB rate through four starts this season. Even with a small sample to work with, we can see that O’Grady has been somewhat lucky, as his SIERA of 5.07 tells us more about his skills than his 3.68 ERA does. O’Grady has been excellent against LH hitting at .219 wOBA and 30.3% K rate, but he’s struggled against RH hitting at .376 wOBA and 18% K rate. He’ll take on a Nationals offense that owns a 21.7% K rate, .338 wOBA and 105 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: We can safely avoid O’Grady in all formats today in a difficult matchup.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

If targeting O’Grady, we want to focus on RH bats here. O’Grady has been excellent against LH hitting at .219 wOBA and 30.3% K rate, but he’s struggled against RH hitting at .376 wOBA and 18% K rate. We have a slight preference for RH bats here, though it’s worth noting that six of the top seven hitters in tonight’s expected lineup own a wOBA over .360 with three of those hitters over .400. A full stack is not out of the question here and neither is using Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo or Ryan Zimmerman as one-off plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.457 0.387 0.333 33.3% 6.3% 37.5% 16.7% OF $3,500 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.340 0.344 0.172 26.9% 9.4% 9.4% 66.7% SS $2,800 2B/SS $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.363 0.305 0.163 32.4% 7.5% 28.3% 52.2% OF $4,800 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.387 0.387 0.301 42.2% 5.0% 15.0% 45.3% 1B $3,700 1B $5,400 1B $10,400
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.384 0.345 0.187 39.3% 7.3% 17.1% 36.1% 2B $3,700 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.527 0.459 0.396 40.0% 18.5% 12.3% 28.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
7 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.401 0.472 0.132 36.4% 15.6% 11.1% 51.5% OF $2,600 2B/OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,200
8 Jose Lobaton SWITCH 0.168 0.185 0.043 10.0% 0.0% 13.0% 52.6% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,600
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.000 0.117 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 75.0% 100.0% P $11,500 P $13,200 P $25,500

Elite Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Wilmer Difo

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper and Brian Goodwin

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Miami

The Marlins are a pretty easy offense to avoid tonight on a full slate. Max Scherzer does struggle a little bit with LH bats, as he owns a .316 wOBA, but those struggles aren’t serious enough to consider using Marlins bats here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.318 0.266 0.073 19.3% 4.9% 14.1% 56.0% 2B $2,800 2B $4,500 2B $8,700
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.389 0.380 0.299 37.7% 10.8% 25.4% 42.3% OF $3,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.349 0.363 0.149 39.3% 11.9% 18.8% 55.9% OF $3,300 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.397 0.376 0.273 44.7% 8.1% 23.0% 45.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.345 0.337 0.156 32.4% 6.4% 16.3% 50.9% C $2,700 C $4,600 C $9,000
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.278 0.286 0.144 32.5% 5.6% 19.3% 38.0% 3B $2,500 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.352 0.294 0.300 34.0% 3.9% 29.9% 28.0% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $5,100
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.348 0.317 0.045 17.5% 11.5% 7.7% 46.8% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,100 2B $4,200
9 Chris O’Grady LEFT 0.000 0.038 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,400 P $4,500 P $9,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Cleveland Boston
Article Image Carlos Carrasco Article Image Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-150 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.323 37.6% 8.2% 24.9% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.251 0.249 24.5% 2.8% 31.0% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.280 0.277 30.9% 4.1% 27.2% 49.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.276 32.2% 5.2% 29.8% 37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Carrasco
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 20 3.49 3.58 27.4% 6.3% 43.9% 30.5% 17.3%
L30 5 3.15 3.31 29.3% 4.5% 40.5% 29.4% 15.3%

In this game we have another decent pitching matchup. Carlos Carrasco is pretty much a wildcard on any slate. He owns a 3.58 ERA, 27.4% K rate and 6.3% BB rate through 20 starts this season. He’s allowing a .326 wOBA vs. LH and .280 vs. RH hitting. The main issue here is that the Red Sox own a 19.2% K rate, .333 wOBA and 106 wRC+ vs. RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: You can certainly play Carrasco in large tournaments, but the Red Sox’ 19.2% K rate makes this a little riskier than we would like in cash games.

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $13,000 Salary: $25,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.43 3.34 25.7% 5.0% 41.2% 31.7% 17.0%
2017 21 2.49 2.37 36.7% 4.7% 36.3% 29.8% 18.4%
L30 5 2.12 1.04 41.5% 4.4% 30.4% 32.9% 30.0%

Chris Sale owns a 2.37 ERA, 36.7% K rate and 4.7% BB rate through 21 starts this season. He’s allowing a .251 wOBA vs. LH and .266 wOBA vs. RH hitting. Sale is on par with Scherzer as one of the top pitching options tonight, but this matchup isn’t perfect. The Indians check in at 16.6% K rate, .333 wOBA and 106 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is safe enough to use for cash games, but he’ll likely cost you some exposure to the best bats, and the matchup isn’t ideal against an Indians team that owns a 16.6% K rate.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians are another offense that we can mostly avoid tonight. Sale is allowing a .251 wOBA vs. LH and .266 wOBA vs. RH hitting. There’s realistically no reason to go here on a 15-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.380 0.371 0.188 42.1% 8.2% 12.0% 39.3% SS $3,100 SS $4,500 SS $8,800
2 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.315 0.343 0.161 33.6% 12.3% 7.4% 52.7% 1B $2,800 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.300 0.300 0.093 25.8% 5.2% 13.8% 48.4% OF $2,900 OF $4,600 LF $8,800
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.381 0.403 0.171 38.8% 20.1% 21.5% 45.0% 1B $3,000 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.373 0.344 0.210 31.7% 7.9% 12.6% 40.8% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,600
6 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.263 0.279 0.121 20.4% 5.4% 24.3% 29.2% OF $2,200 OF $3,200 LF $6,300
7 Austin Jackson RIGHT 0.430 0.403 0.242 33.3% 15.1% 15.1% 37.3% OF $2,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.377 0.339 0.268 41.1% 11.0% 19.5% 47.3% C $2,100 C $3,400 C $6,600
9 Giovanny Urshela RIGHT 0.204 0.304 0.059 40.0% 5.6% 11.1% 33.3% 3B $2,100 3B $2,800 3B $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Boston

The Red Sox have a somewhat difficult matchup with Carlos Carrasco. He is allowing a .326 wOBA vs. LH compared to .280 vs. RH hitting. He only generates ground balls at 43.9% overall though. In tournaments you could take a chance on Mookie Betts or Rafael Devers, who have both been on fire recently. Betts owns a .199 ISO and 37.3% hard contact rate against RH pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.338 0.331 0.199 37.3% 9.7% 9.9% 40.8% OF $3,900 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
2 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.338 0.273 0.131 24.9% 3.4% 9.5% 54.0% 3B $3,700 3B/OF $5,200 3B $10,000
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.335 0.338 0.164 36.9% 10.7% 16.1% 37.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.329 0.353 0.179 35.2% 7.9% 18.8% 44.4% 1B $3,100 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
5 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.316 0.336 0.173 39.5% 9.4% 23.5% 39.7% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.325 0.265 0.141 31.3% 7.5% 19.2% 48.3% SS $3,000 SS $3,100 SS $6,000
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.320 0.377 0.185 42.0% 10.7% 23.5% 38.9% 1B $2,300 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.280 0.279 0.139 35.6% 6.7% 23.5% 37.0% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.394 0.526 0.273 40.0% 15.4% 7.7% 50.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 3B $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.