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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, July 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-26 02:36:37

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Chicago Cubs
whitesoxmlb Carlos Rodon cubsmlb John Lackey
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-200 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.285 0.279 30.0% 4.9% 25.9% 49.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.350 34.8% 9.2% 18.9% 44.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.342 0.312 27.5% 9.5% 22.6% 42.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.306 35.5% 5.4% 25.1% 39.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Carlos Rodon
carlos-rodon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 3.91 4.04 23.5% 7.6% 44.1% 27.8% 16.3%
2017 4 5.51 5.75 21.7% 16.3% 42.1% 29.8% 8.8%
L30 4 5.51 5.75 21.7% 16.3% 42.1% 29.8% 8.8%

Once again, we have an early day game in Chicago. If you are only playing the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the next game. Rodon has not been sharp this season, but that’s to be expected as he is making his way back from a biceps injury that kept him out of the first few months of the season. He’s a talented lefty with strikeout upside, but we need to see him flash some form before he deserves consideration in DFS. He’s an easy fade against the Cubs, who are ranked fifth in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Rodon moving forward, but avoid him today against the Cubs.

John Lackey
john-lackey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 3.83 3.35 24.1% 7.1% 41.0% 34.4% 16.2%
2017 18 4.53 5.04 19.4% 7.1% 42.9% 36.4% 15.1%
L30 3 5.90 6.61 8.3% 5.6% 37.3% 36.1% 13.1%

Father time finally appears to be catching up to Lackey. After a career year at the ripe old age of 36, he has taken a big step back this season. In 18 starts, he has a 4.53 SIERA with a strikeout rate below 20%. The hard contact is up and he has produced little to no soft contact this season. A matchup against the White Sox is always appealing for a right-handed pitcher (28th in team wOBA and 18th in strikeout rate), but we like to see at least some type of form before blindly playing guys thanks to a favorable matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Lackey is cheap, but there’s a reason for that. If you are playing the all-day slate, you can find better options in the later games.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

A quick glance at the White Sox projected lineup and you can see that there isn’t a lot to love when they are facing a right-handed pitcher. Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia have decent power numbers against righties this season, but John Lackey is considerably worse against lefties (.350 xwOBA) than he is against righties (.306 xwOBA). The play here is Yoan Moncada, who is one of the White Sox top prospects. Moncada is a switch-hitter with decent power and good speed. He has yet to steal a base at the major league level, but that could come today against Lackey and the Cubs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.324 0.332 0.121 30.9% 6.7% 11.4% 52.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.318 0.350 0.200 42.9% 16.7% 25.0% 57.1% 2B $2,400 2B/3B $3,600 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.339 0.348 0.205 39.9% 5.1% 16.1% 45.9% 1B $3,600 1B $3,800 N/A N/A
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.337 0.359 0.198 33.0% 4.9% 21.3% 51.3% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
5 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.319 0.305 0.271 44.9% 3.9% 42.9% 34.6% 3B $2,700 1B/3B $3,200 N/A N/A
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.250 0.264 0.134 30.0% 3.1% 26.8% 52.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.301 0.281 0.139 41.2% 8.4% 28.9% 50.0% OF $2,500 OF $2,600 N/A N/A
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.283 0.285 0.041 15.9% 8.9% 11.9% 44.3% C $2,200 C $2,500 N/A N/A
9 Carlos Rodon LEFT P $7,100 P $6,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Last season, Carlos Rodon wasn’t a pitcher that we liked to pick on. He had an above-average strikeout rate, he induced a lot of soft and medium contact, and he held right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA. After missing a few months with a biceps injury, he hasn’t been the same in his first four outings this season. The time to target hitters against him is now, as it’s only a matter of time before he shakes the rust off. Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras, and Albert Almora all bat from the right side and all have at least a .368 xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.203 0.268 0.143 29.8% 9.5% 15.9% 44.4% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.444 0.469 0.301 36.8% 27.0% 16.0% 36.8% 3B $3,700 3B $5,000 N/A N/A
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.423 0.399 0.333 33.3% 12.1% 8.6% 43.9% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.374 0.372 0.224 32.9% 13.0% 16.0% 56.7% C $3,400 C $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.336 0.257 0.189 21.1% 5.3% 28.1% 40.5% OF $2,900 2B/OF $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.436 0.368 0.213 35.3% 15.3% 13.9% 48.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.385 0.322 0.301 38.9% 7.5% 25.0% 48.1% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.309 0.343 0.153 30.8% 14.0% 23.3% 48.1% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
9 John Lackey RIGHT 0.097 0.179 0.000 16.7% 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% P $7,700 P $6,700 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Willson Contreras

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo, Albert Almora, Javier Baez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Cincinnati NY Yankees
cincinnatimlb Luis Castillo nyyankeesmlb Jordan Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-165 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.225 32.0% 8.8% 28.8% 56.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.307 18.9% 6.0% 18.0% 51.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.349 0.284 29.0% 12.1% 30.3% 55.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.301 27.6% 7.7% 22.2% 40.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Castillo
luis-castillo-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,900 Salary: $13,600
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 6 3.71 3.86 29.5% 10.3% 55.7% 30.7% 20.5%
L30 5 3.35 3.90 30.7% 8.1% 52.6% 29.0% 22.4%

Castillo got off to a shaky start in his last outing, but recovered nicely and finished with seven strikeouts in six innings of work against the Diamondbacks. His first six major league starts have been truly impressive. He currently boasts a 3.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. The walks can come down a bit, but I’m always interested in high-strikeout pitchers, especially ones with above-average ground ball rates. Tonight will arguably be Castillo’s toughest test to date and I’m excited to see how he fares against a Yankees’ offense that is ranked second in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: The upside is there for Castillo, but so is the risk. For that reason, I would only recommend playing him in tournaments.

Jordan Montgomery
jordan-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,600
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 18 4.34 4.09 21.7% 7.5% 41.5% 26.5% 15.2%
L30 5 4.43 5.06 19.1% 5.2% 42.5% 25.3% 19.5%

Montgomery offers one of the best point-per-dollar values at pitcher tonight, especially on DraftKings ($5,900) and FantasyDraft ($11,600). Considering the fact that this is his rookie season, Yankee fans should be happy with his results thus far. In 18 starts, he has a 4.34 SIERA with a 22% strikeout rate and a 27% hard contact rate. Montgomery also owns a 13.3% swinging strike rate this season, which is tied for the second highest in the slate. The Reds don’t present the most favorable matchup on the board, but at this price point, Montgomery doesn’t need a huge outing to reach and exceed value.

Quick Breakdown: Given the discounted price point, Montgomery is an elite SP2 on multi-pitcher sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds go from one hitter’s park to another, only this time they will get to utilize the use of a DH. A quick glance at their lineup below and you can see that they have fared very well against southpaws this season with four of their hitters having a .369+ xwOBA. Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, and Eugenio Suarez are all viable one-off targets, but a matchup against Jordan Montgomery isn’t one that I would get too excited about. In his first 18 career starts, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.225 0.205 0.081 16.7% 0.0% 24.3% 45.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.477 0.392 0.303 40.4% 10.5% 13.2% 35.1% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 SS $9,000
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.406 0.326 31.7% 16.8% 12.4% 49.4% 1B $3,800 1B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.402 0.369 0.314 33.8% 7.4% 20.0% 41.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.401 0.371 0.230 39.6% 16.5% 24.2% 45.3% 3B $3,300 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.343 0.337 0.235 39.2% 1.0% 19.0% 48.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
7 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.312 0.328 0.186 30.0% 12.0% 26.0% 36.7% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,400
8 Patrick Kivlehan RIGHT 0.357 0.341 0.220 30.0% 10.9% 23.9% 50.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 3B $5,400
9 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.271 0.261 0.063 22.0% 3.1% 13.3% 59.3% SS $2,000 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

NY Yankees

The Yankees draw a boom or bust matchup against rookie Luis Castillo, who has surpassed all expectations in his first six major league starts. We see this time and time again with young pitchers; their range of outcomes is a lot wider than most veteran pitchers. Castillo could come out and dominate again or he could run into the buzz saw that is the Yankees’ offense. In these situations, I like to avoid both sides in cash games and have a small piece of each in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.360 0.340 0.216 36.7% 11.5% 19.0% 39.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,400 LF $8,700
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.348 0.336 0.300 53.3% 2.4% 26.2% 36.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.443 0.446 0.337 48.5% 15.0% 31.0% 39.1% OF $4,600 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.360 0.367 0.209 37.1% 8.2% 24.5% 42.7% C $3,300 C $4,400 C $8,400
5 Matt Holliday RIGHT 0.339 0.355 0.238 32.1% 10.6% 24.8% 46.2% OF $2,700 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.381 0.279 0.240 25.5% 4.3% 13.5% 40.4% SS $3,500 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.331 0.128 28.0% 13.2% 23.3% 42.8% 1B $3,100 3B $3,800 3B $7,500
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.312 0.346 0.191 29.0% 13.5% 21.7% 38.5% 3B $3,000 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
9 Tyler Wade LEFT 0.282 0.338 0.136 31.3% 15.4% 23.1% 37.5% OF $2,200 SS $2,800 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Clint Frazier, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Milwaukee Washington
milwaukeemlb Zach Davies washingtonmlb Edwin Jackson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-122 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.322 33.1% 7.4% 17.2% 42.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.350 27.7% 13.9% 15.4% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.312 31.2% 5.4% 18.5% 51.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.389 0.375 36.9% 7.8% 15.7% 37.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zach Davies
zach-davies-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,800 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.06 3.97 19.8% 5.6% 45.5% 33.8% 19.7%
2017 20 4.83 4.76 15.2% 7.5% 49.7% 29.8% 20.8%
L30 5 4.83 3.16 14.1% 7.0% 50.5% 23.2% 19.2%

Davies has been an easy fade in DFS this season thanks to a lack of upside. We are always chasing strikeouts and a 15% k-rate isn’t going to get it done. To make matters worse, he has to travel to Washington to take on a Nationals’ offense that is ranked second in team wOBA and sixth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: This one isn’t complicated – Davies doesn’t have enough strikeout upside to make up for the runs that he consistently gives up.

Edwin Jackson
edwin-jackson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.23 5.89 16.4% 11.0% 40.2% 33.3% 13.3%
2017 1 6.00 4.50 9.6% 7.7% 31.0% 30.2% 25.6%
L30 1 4.85 2.57 13.0% 0.0% 35.0% 35.0% 30.0%

Jackson has been one of my favorite pitchers to pick on throughout the years, so I was ecstatic when I saw that he was going to start for the Nationals. He wasn’t terrible in his first start, but he’s a low strikeout pitcher with a low ground ball and a high hard contact rate. He may be a slight favorite tonight, but he shouldn’t even sniff our radar tonight. The fact that a game in Nationals Park has an over/under of 10.0 runs tells you everything you need to know about these two pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: This is one of those games where both teams could go to the bullpen by the third or fourth inning.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Let’s start with the bad – Nationals Park is not what we consider a hitter-friendly ballpark.

Now, let’s get to the good – the Brewers draw one of the best matchups in the slate, they are playing on the road (guarantees ninth inning at-bats), and they will fly under the radar because they are underdogs. Edwin Jackson has one of the lowest strikeout rates in all of baseball and he has allowed a .350 xwOBA to lefties and a .375 xwOBA to righties in the last two seasons. He also has a high walk rate and he’s no stranger to giving up a lot of runs in a single outing. The Brewers’ stack is firmly in play here and the one through four hitters are viable in cash games as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.289 0.280 0.131 37.1% 7.5% 29.6% 54.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.395 0.348 0.291 42.4% 16.3% 26.9% 40.8% 1B $3,400 1B/OF $3,700 1B $7,200
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.334 0.289 42.1% 8.5% 23.4% 46.3% OF $4,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.397 0.364 0.277 39.6% 9.8% 21.0% 46.2% 3B $3,600 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.368 0.326 0.193 34.7% 11.5% 29.3% 48.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.332 0.284 0.174 29.2% 6.7% 19.0% 37.0% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
7 Brett Phillips LEFT 0.297 0.171 0.269 14.3% 10.3% 41.4% 35.7% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.312 0.273 0.140 27.5% 4.7% 17.9% 51.7% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.187 0.191 0.077 10.7% 7.9% 18.4% 78.9% P $6,800 P $6,600 P $13,200

Elite Plays – Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar or Eric Sogard, Domingo Santana, Manny Pina

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Washington

The Nationals may not have as an appealing of a matchup as the Brewers, but they have the more talented offense and they are playing at home. Zach Davies hasn’t allowed a lot of hard contact this season, but he’s not particularly effective against lefties (.322 xwOBA) or righties (.312 xwOBA). If the Nationals can keep the ball off the ground (which they are very good at doing), they have a great shot of stringing together hits and getting into the Brewers’ bullpen early. A Nationals’ stack is viable tonight, while Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy both stand out as elite plays in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.303 0.313 0.216 32.4% 9.6% 23.4% 40.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.272 0.295 0.056 22.7% 9.8% 17.9% 55.3% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.468 0.445 0.351 35.7% 18.4% 15.7% 37.2% OF $5,000 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.388 0.370 0.240 39.1% 7.2% 21.3% 45.7% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.405 0.379 0.250 36.2% 7.8% 8.1% 32.7% 2B $3,900 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.396 0.369 0.240 33.0% 14.1% 13.8% 37.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.277 0.292 0.118 32.6% 6.2% 19.8% 39.5% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Adrian Sanchez RIGHT 0.000 0.212 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 50.0% 25.0% 2B/SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Edwin Jackson RIGHT P $6,400 P $5,800 P $11,400

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin, Wilmer Difo or Stephen Drew, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Houston Philadelphia
houstonmlb Charlie Morton philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-145 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.275 0.295 28.3% 10.8% 28.4% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.286 31.0% 13.0% 26.1% 36.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357 0.323 32.6% 8.4% 23.3% 56.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.429 0.382 45.1% 8.6% 21.6% 40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Charlie Morton
charlie-morton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,800 Salary: $17,100
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 4 3.56 4.15 26.8% 11.3% 62.8% 20.5% 15.9%
2017 13 3.90 4.18 25.5% 9.2% 51.2% 32.8% 20.1%
L30 3 4.16 4.58 24.7% 9.6% 51.1% 17.0% 34.0%

I always get a little nervous when a non-ace road pitcher is my favorite play in the slate, but here we are. In 13 starts this season, Morton owns a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 51%. His velocity has been up all season and he has turned that into a high strikeout rate. The walks are a small concern, but the Phillies have a low walk rate as a team. They are also ranked 26th in team wOBA and 25th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. The only knock that I can find on Morton tonight is the ballpark, but his high ground ball rate should negate some of that.

Quick Breakdown: It’s a bit scary to say, but Morton is my favorite pitcher in the slate.

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,100
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.51 5.58 23.7% 10.7% 38.7% 39.0% 13.3%
L30 5 4.89 7.33 21.4% 11.1% 41.0% 42.3% 15.4%

Pivetta has some strikeout upside, but there are too many red flags to consider using him in DFS. In his first 13 major league starts, he owns a 4.51 SIERA (5.58 ERA) with a walk rate of 11% and a hard contact rate (39%) that rivals his ground ball rate (39%). In this ballpark against this offense, it could get ugly early. On the season, the Astros are ranked first in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Pivetta carries more downside than upside, even though his strikeout rate is above the major league average.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are an offense that could get overlooked in this slate. They are going to be without two of their best hitters tonight in George Springer and Carlos Correa. While many will look at that as a negative, I see it as an opportunity to capitalize on some value that should open up. We will have to wait for their lineup, but Yuli Gurriel, Brian McCann, and Marwin Gonzalez could all move up in the lineup, which would boost their fantasy appeal. In terms of his splits, Nick Pivetta has been significantly worse against righties (.382 xwOBA) than he has against lefties (.286 xwOBA).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.422 0.358 0.202 28.0% 8.9% 12.3% 48.6% 2B $4,300 2B $5,700 2B $11,100
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.365 0.342 0.218 35.8% 7.8% 13.1% 32.7% OF $2,900 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
3 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.365 0.335 0.216 36.2% 1.6% 10.4% 42.5% 1B $3,300 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.434 0.338 0.278 33.8% 11.1% 19.4% 44.1% SS $3,800 3B/OF $4,700 1B $9,200
5 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.313 0.285 0.197 34.0% 7.6% 19.1% 46.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
6 Brian McCann LEFT 0.320 0.326 0.179 35.7% 8.6% 17.2% 43.3% C $2,600 C $3,800 C $7,600
7 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.321 0.343 0.168 32.5% 9.3% 17.1% 40.7% 3B $3,200 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
8 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.314 0.279 0.110 18.8% 7.1% 13.1% 56.8% OF $2,600 OF $3,800 LF $7,600
9 Charlie Morton RIGHT P $8,600 P $8,800 P $17,100

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick, Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez, Alex Bregman

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

The Phillies aren’t an offense that I usually target in a full slate, unless they have a tremendous matchup or are playing in Coors Field. Since neither of those apply tonight, I plan to fade them once again. Charlie Morton has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. He has also held left-handed hitters to a .295 xwOBA and a 28% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.342 0.309 0.104 20.6% 9.8% 20.6% 48.9% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.316 0.293 0.185 30.5% 7.6% 19.2% 37.6% SS $3,000 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
3 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.363 0.304 0.111 32.9% 3.8% 22.9% 57.3% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.283 0.322 0.151 27.5% 7.3% 13.5% 48.0% 3B $3,300 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
5 Nick Williams LEFT 0.364 0.358 0.226 43.8% 5.8% 23.2% 50.0% OF $3,200 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.309 0.292 0.154 30.0% 6.5% 22.7% 43.9% OF $3,300 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.310 0.313 0.163 39.5% 6.0% 23.4% 45.9% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
8 Andrew Knapp SWITCH 0.340 0.326 0.130 38.3% 15.2% 26.1% 58.0% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
9 Nick Pivetta RIGHT 0.110 0.108 0.000 18.2% 0.0% 42.1% 57.1% P $6,500 P $5,600 P $11,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Oakland at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Oakland Toronto
oaklandmlb Sonny Gray torontomlb Cesar Valdez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-113 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.301 0.312 27.6% 6.9% 20.4% 53.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.404 48.2% 8.1% 18.9% 40.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.328 35.6% 8.8% 19.8% 55.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.437 0.441 51.4% 8.2% 14.3% 37.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $10,700 Salary: $20,700
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.32 5.69 18.2% 8.1% 53.9% 33.6% 16.1%
2017 15 3.81 3.66 22.7% 7.5% 55.3% 28.9% 16.2%
L30 5 3.53 1.62 22.0% 5.7% 59.1% 20.2% 20.2%

After a disappointing 2016 campaign, Gray has bounced back in a big way this season. In 15 starts, he has a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He has done a nice job of keeping the ball on the ground and he has induced a career-high swinging strike rate of 11.8%. If this game was being played in Oakland, I would be all over Gray in a matchup against the Blue Jays. However, the Rogers Centre is a difficult place to pitch and Toronto has a right-handed heavy lineup, which doesn’t exactly bode well for a reverse-splits pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Gray isn’t the worst pitching option in the slate, but he’s overpriced for a difficult start on the road.

Cesar Valdez
cesar-valdez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 1 4.79 6.05 16.3% 8.1% 39.1% 50.0% 15.6%
L30 0 2.12 1.59 33.3% 0.0% 28.6% 50.0% 14.3%

Valdez will be making his second career major league start tonight. It’s worth noting that he has also made seven appearances out of the bullpen, so he at least has some big league experience. He has never had a high strikeout rate in the minors, but he has had an elite ground ball rate in basically every season since 2008. He draws a decent matchup against the A’s, but Vegas is expecting this to be a close, high-scoring game. With 14 games in the main slate, it doesn’t hurt to watch Valdez from the sidelines.

Quick Breakdown: In theory, this is a decent spot for Valdez, but there is enough risk to make him an easy fade tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s draw a boom or bust matchup against Cesar Valdez, who is only making his second career major league start. Oakland sees a significant ballpark boost playing in the Rogers Centre and their implied run total is fairly high compared to most nights. This isn’t an offense that I will be actively targeting, but there are a few viable one-off targets. Yonder Alonso, Khris Davis, and Jed Lowrie all have a .365+ xwOBA and a .190+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.325 0.346 0.212 31.8% 13.6% 21.0% 33.9% OF $3,000 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
2 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.284 0.325 0.138 23.4% 14.1% 24.4% 31.9% SS $2,800 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
3 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.392 0.388 0.278 33.1% 14.2% 23.9% 30.7% 1B $3,000 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.374 0.387 0.306 41.3% 10.1% 31.7% 40.7% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
5 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.348 0.365 0.190 36.6% 9.2% 16.8% 27.3% 2B $2,900 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
6 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.301 0.315 0.199 38.5% 4.0% 27.9% 43.2% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,000 3B $6,000
7 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.352 0.328 0.116 42.0% 16.9% 22.9% 44.0% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Matt Chapman RIGHT 0.381 0.302 0.373 38.9% 7.0% 28.1% 25.0% 3B $2,500 3B $2,000 3B $4,000
9 Jaycob Brugman LEFT 0.312 0.283 0.073 18.3% 12.6% 23.4% 47.1% OF $2,200 OF $2,000 CF $4,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Toronto

The Blue Jays may be favored tonight, but I always hesitate to target hitters against elite ground ball pitchers, especially ones that have an above-average strikeout rate to go with it. On the season, Gray has a 55% ground ball rate and a 23% strikeout rate. When looking at batted ball profiles, the two hitters that stand out the most here are Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak. They both have high fly-ball rates against right-handed pitching and both have good power numbers to boot. I won’t be stacking the Blue Jays tonight, but I will have some exposure to both of these batters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.334 0.338 0.191 33.8% 13.1% 22.6% 33.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.344 0.335 0.169 30.8% 14.5% 22.4% 51.5% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,600
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.346 0.341 0.195 31.6% 14.5% 25.9% 43.9% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.375 0.398 0.292 39.7% 10.7% 22.1% 33.0% 1B $3,600 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.301 0.358 0.186 37.6% 6.8% 22.2% 47.3% 1B $3,000 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.324 0.299 0.149 32.4% 6.6% 14.8% 46.5% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.329 0.307 0.142 32.3% 5.4% 21.7% 45.2% OF $2,600 OF $3,200 1B $6,400
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.273 0.311 0.130 27.6% 5.2% 15.4% 45.1% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 CF $5,600
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.265 0.286 0.130 28.1% 7.8% 17.6% 44.3% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,600 2B $5,100

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak (Cash), Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious