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MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-23 01:52:16

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Happy Tuesday everyone. I felt really good about the picks last night, with the exception of one Miles Mikolas. I have come to the conclusion that he reads the Grind Down on the days that he is scheduled to start and purposely does the opposite of what I predict. When I say to fade him (which has been most of the year), he goes out and dominates. When I say to play him (two times all season), he gets shelled and forgets how to strike hitters out. I wanted to point this out for future reference. The next time he takes the mound, do the opposite of what I say here in the Grind Down. Now, with that out of the way, yesterday was solid overall in terms of the recommendations. Let’s hop into tonight’s massive 15-game slate.

Atlanta at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Atlanta Philadelphia
Article Image Brandon McCarthy Article Image Vince Velasquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-113 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.342 0.351 23.6% 14.8% 22.7% 49.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.412 0.331 31.5% 6.5% 25.2% 31.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.406 0.356 32.3% 3.4% 15.3% 47.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.230 0.243 25.9% 9.4% 29.2% 38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brandon McCarthy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 16 4.55 3.98 18.8% 7.0% 42.0% 27.7% 22.7%
2018 9 4.27 5.05 18.5% 8.3% 48.3% 29.1% 16.6%
L14 2 3.95 5.73 22.0% 8.0% 41.2% 48.6% 20.0%

McCarthy isn’t a great pitcher for DFS thanks to a below-average strikeout rate. I would say that he’s a better pitcher in real life, but an ERA over five may beg to differ. If he’s not a great pitcher in DFS or in actual baseball, then we probably shouldn’t waste a ton of time on him. A matchup against the Phillies is less than ideal, especially in the home run-friendly Citizens Bank Park.

Quick Breakdown: McCarthy is an easy fade in a 15-game slate.

Vince Velasquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 8 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 15 4.73 5.13 21.6% 10.8% 42.5% 38.1% 15.2%
2018 9 3.63 4.37 27.1% 7.9% 34.6% 29.0% 15.3%
L14 2 2.66 2.19 34.7% 6.1% 35.7% 51.7% 10.3%

Velasquez has always had the talent, he has just struggled to put it altogether until this season. In his nine starts in 2018, he owns a respectable 3.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. His high fly-ball rate is a bit concerning in this ballpark though, as is a matchup against the Braves. A quick glance at the projected lineup table below and we can see a lot of blue boxes. We typically like to see plenty of yellow and red. While Velasquez does offer strikeout upside at a good price point, he didn’t quite make my short list of potential pitching targets tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is viable in tournaments if you are building multiple lineups.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves are playing in a home run-friendly ballpark and are facing a fly-ball pitcher that has historically given up a lot of hard contact. Atlanta has been one of the hottest offenses in baseball over the last few weeks, but come into this game as small underdogs. The left-handed bats of Ozzie Albies and Freddie Freeman make intriguing one-off targets, but they aren’t priority plays in a slate this size.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.334 0.373 0.255 33.0% 6.5% 20.0% 34.2% 2B $4,900 2B $5,300 2B $10,900
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.376 0.357 0.186 47.6% 9.1% 27.3% 52.4% OF $4,200 OF $4,200 LF $8,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.461 0.475 0.204 49.5% 16.1% 13.9% 28.4% 1B $4,900 1B $5,300 1B $10,100
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.419 0.367 0.179 35.1% 12.6% 5.2% 39.6% OF $3,900 OF $4,400 RF $8,500
5 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.391 0.486 0.040 57.9% 10.7% 21.4% 36.8% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,500
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.284 0.263 0.140 26.5% 7.4% 14.1% 46.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 CF $9,400
7 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.415 0.411 0.225 58.1% 25.5% 16.4% 48.4% 3B $2,800 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,500
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.306 0.204 0.117 27.0% 5.4% 27.0% 49.3% SS $3,100 SS $3,200 SS $6,500
9 Brandon McCarthy RIGHT 0.130 0.220 0.063 28.6% 0.0% 61.1% 25.0% P $6,300 P $6,200 P $11,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

This game as a whole lacks fantasy appeal. I don’t have much interest in either pitcher, but the total is set at only 8.5 runs, which limits the appeal of the offenses. Brandon McCarthy may not have a high strikeout rate, but he generates a lot of ground balls and is good at limiting hard contact. Even though the splits from this season say otherwise, McCarthy has historically given up a higher wOBA and hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Odubel Herrera and Carlos Santana are decent one-off targets in large-field tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.330 0.300 0.178 27.2% 13.3% 25.3% 42.0% 2B $3,900 2B $4,500 2B $9,300
2 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.399 0.387 0.222 36.4% 14.3% 30.0% 27.3% OF $4,000 OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,600
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.369 0.439 0.191 27.7% 10.0% 16.9% 46.8% OF $4,300 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,400
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.337 0.284 0.196 24.7% 5.5% 16.5% 52.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,500 3B $6,600
5 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.404 0.451 0.250 38.4% 15.6% 14.2% 35.7% 1B $3,900 1B $4,200 1B $8,500
6 Nick Williams LEFT 0.368 0.476 0.122 28.9% 10.7% 26.2% 51.9% OF $2,400 OF $2,800 LF $5,700
7 Jorge Alfaro RIGHT 0.281 0.292 0.132 34.2% 4.9% 43.2% 58.5% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Scott Kingery RIGHT 0.305 0.230 0.125 28.6% 5.7% 25.7% 37.1% SS $2,300 3B/SS $3,200 SS $6,700
9 Vince Velasquez RIGHT 0.136 0.215 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 30.0% 100.0% P $8,100 P $7,500 P $14,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Odubel Herrera, Carlos Santana

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland at Chicago Cubs – 7:05 PM ET

Cleveland Chicago Cubs
Article Image Trevor Bauer Article Image Tyler Chatwood
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-105 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.268 39.2% 6.7% 29.4% 46.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.377 37.1% 16.8% 15.8% 50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.311 36.7% 10.2% 25.2% 49.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.328 27.1% 19.8% 27.5% 53.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0%
2018 9 3.54 2.59 27.2% 8.5% 48.0% 37.9% 17.0%
L14 2 2.97 2.84 24.5% 3.8% 52.6% 42.1% 13.2%

All right class, what is the first thing to check when there is a game in Wrigley? That’s right, the wind. This ballpark more than any other in baseball is susceptible to wind, which can turn it into a hitter’s park or a pitcher’s park. Tonight’s forecast calls for a light wind blowing in from center field. Bauer continues to pitch well for the Indians, posting a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. The problem is twofold — he feels overpriced and he’s pitching on the road against a talented Cubs’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is a little too expensive for this matchup.

Tyler Chatwood
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%
2018 8 5.60 3.14 21.5% 18.3% 51.4% 32.7% 13.6%
L14 2 5.68 2.61 19.5% 17.1% 48.0% 42.3% 7.7%

Chatwood has two statistics that I love to see when looking at a pitcher — a high ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. Unfortunately, he has a walk rate of 18%. It’s hard to have success when you are walking every fifth batter that you face. Chatwood may have a low ERA, but his SIERA is two and a half runs higher, which suggests regression moving forward. A matchup against the Indians makes this fade even easier.

Quick Breakdown: Chatwood is due for regression and he’s drawn a difficult matchup against Cleveland.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians aren’t playing in the best ballpark for offensive production and they are facing a pitcher with a 51% ground ball rate. Even though I will be fading Tyler Chatwood, I don’t plan to have much exposure to Cleveland’s offense. With that said, Chatwood has allowed a .377 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters if you want to give Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and/or Jose Ramirez a look in tournaments. All three bat from the left side and own a .385+ xwOBA against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.418 0.449 0.295 37.9% 8.7% 21.0% 31.2% SS $4,500 SS $5,100 SS $9,900
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.419 0.413 0.261 40.0% 6.0% 9.0% 41.2% OF $4,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.388 0.374 0.321 27.3% 15.0% 9.8% 36.4% 3B $4,400 3B $5,100 IF/OF $10,100
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.356 0.359 0.224 37.0% 5.9% 28.8% 38.4% 1B $3,600 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.338 0.409 0.041 35.8% 10.2% 19.7% 38.7% 2B $2,500 2B $3,300 2B $6,500
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.118 0.118 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
7 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.297 0.256 0.197 34.1% 6.4% 34.6% 31.8% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,700
8 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.173 0.216 0.077 42.9% 0.0% 46.2% 54.5% OF $2,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
9 Trevor Bauer RIGHT P $9,600 P $11,700 P $22,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have a lot of factors working against them tonight. We have a slight wind blowing in from center, which had led to a low over/under of 7.5 runs. A matchup against Trevor Bauer isn’t helping the cause, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA this season. Bauer also has a high strikeout rate and a slightly above-average ground ball rate. Outside of an Anthony Rizzo one-off in tournaments, there isn’t a lot to love here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.369 0.363 0.137 33.3% 15.1% 11.6% 50.8% OF $2,700 2B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,800
2 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.263 0.306 0.082 28.1% 8.5% 23.4% 45.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,200 CF $6,800
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.425 0.476 0.186 38.0% 14.6% 15.3% 40.2% 3B $4,700 3B $4,900 IF/OF $9,000
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.364 0.365 0.151 37.9% 8.1% 10.5% 37.9% 1B $4,100 1B $4,400 1B $8,000
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.337 0.373 0.214 29.0% 6.2% 18.5% 46.2% C $3,400 C $4,300 IF/OF $8,200
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.369 0.324 0.291 36.0% 16.9% 22.6% 52.7% OF $3,900 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,200
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.388 0.354 0.320 37.9% 2.3% 23.7% 40.0% 2B $4,200 2B/SS $4,000 2B $7,700
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.385 0.395 0.165 35.1% 9.8% 7.6% 33.8% OF $2,600 OF $2,800 RF $5,800
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.106 0.215 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 83.3% P $6,200 P $6,500 P $12,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo

Stackability – ORANGE

San Diego at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

San Diego Washington
Article Image Eric Lauer Article Image Jeremy Hellickson
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-190 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.261 0.260 23.5% 4.6% 18.2% 43.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.316 26.3% 5.3% 18.7% 44.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.473 0.419 50.8% 11.8% 16.5% 32.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.130 0.261 30.3% 2.2% 26.1% 54.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Eric Lauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2018 5 5.09 8.14 16.8% 10.3% 35.1% 44.9% 9.0%
L14 2 6.62 12.86 8.1% 10.8% 25.9% 53.3% 6.7%

Lauer has a single yellow box in his pitching table below — the rest are all red (meaning well below the major league average). He’s a young lefty that just witnessed his teammate, Robbie Erlin, get shelled for six runs in only four innings of work against the Nationals last night. Lauer is a massive underdog, he’s pitching on the road, and run support for the Padres’ pitching staff has been non-existent for years.

Quick Breakdown: Lauer is an easy fade in all formats.

Jeremy Hellickson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,400
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 5.37 5.43 13.8% 6.8% 34.9% 32.0% 19.9%
2018 6 3.58 2.20 21.5% 4.1% 48.3% 27.8% 21.1%
L14 2 2.17 0.77 32.5% 2.5% 56.0% 30.8% 11.5%

Hellickson has pitched well this season, especially in his last two starts — 2.17 SIERA with a 33% strikeout rate and a 56% ground ball rate. We have a big enough sample to know that we shouldn’t expect that type of production moving forward, but perhaps he has found a home in Washington. While his long-term appeal is still up in the air, we can certainly play him against the Padres, whose projected lineup has a .268 xwOBA and a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson is affordable, in good form, and he’s pitching at home against the Padres. I’ll definitely have some shares.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

The Padres have been an avoidable offense for most of the season. That’s a trend that will continue tonight, as they have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board. A matchup against Jeremy Hellickson sounds nice given his struggles over the last few seasons, but he has actually held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 31% hard contact rate this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Travis Jankowski LEFT 0.304 0.306 0.127 14.9% 12.7% 12.7% 67.4% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 CF $7,300
2 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.348 0.351 0.212 32.2% 12.6% 23.0% 55.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
3 Franchy Cordero LEFT 0.394 0.267 0.212 53.7% 12.4% 32.0% 44.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,300
4 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.261 0.308 0.067 36.7% 6.2% 25.5% 64.3% 2B $2,500 2B/OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,800
5 Christian Villanueva RIGHT 0.278 0.248 0.159 26.7% 7.1% 28.3% 33.3% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.242 0.248 0.035 37.1% 9.9% 21.4% 54.7% SS $2,400 SS $2,700 SS $5,500
7 Raffy Lopez LEFT 0.253 0.254 0.182 35.0% 10.5% 36.8% 30.0% C $2,200 C $2,600 C $4,800
8 Franmil Reyes RIGHT 0.217 0.213 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 33.3% 62.5% OF $2,100 OF $2,900 RF $5,900
9 Eric Lauer LEFT 0.116 0.166 0.200 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% P $5,600 P $4,200 P $8,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals made quick work of a Padres’ southpaw last night and will look to do the same tonight. Eric Lauer is a rookie that has been awful in his first five major league starts — 10% walk rate, 35% ground ball rate, and a 45% hard contact rate. He has been tough on lefties, but has allowed a .419 xwOBA and a 51% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Mark Reynolds, and Pedro Severino (if batting fifth again) are all elite plays at their respective positions. Juan Soto bats from the left side, but is one of the top prospects in baseball and homered in his major league debut yesterday. Bryce Harper is also viable in tournaments if you are looking to stack the Nationals.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.373 0.409 0.125 41.5% 15.8% 12.3% 56.4% SS $4,400 SS $4,800 IF/OF $8,900
2 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.378 0.391 0.118 36.8% 18.5% 21.5% 55.3% OF $4,700 OF $5,300 RF $9,800
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.471 0.461 0.174 56.3% 14.8% 25.9% 12.5% 3B $3,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,300
4 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.298 0.522 0.200 60.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 1B $3,700 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,700
5 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.347 0.364 0.048 40.0% 4.2% 29.2% 28.6% C $2,200 C $2,800 C $5,700
6 Juan Soto LEFT 0.000 OF $2,500 OF $2,900 LF $5,800
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.236 0.160 0.267 40.7% 4.2% 39.6% 53.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,700
8 Jeremy Hellickson RIGHT 0.147 0.094 0.143 40.0% 0.0% 28.6% 100.0% P $7,600 P $8,000 P $15,400
9 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.253 0.291 0.091 30.8% 8.3% 19.4% 48.0% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $3,200 2B $6,500

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, Mark Reynolds, Pedro Severino (DK), Juan Soto (GPP), Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Juan Soto (Cash), Bryce Harper (Cash)

Stackability – GREEN

LA Angels at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

LA Angels Toronto
Article Image Garrett Richards Article Image J.A. Happ
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.260 0.270 25.9% 12.6% 31.1% 58.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.182 0.243 20.6% 1.9% 34.0% 55.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.352 41.3% 8.6% 22.6% 52.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.340 0.346 33.7% 7.4% 29.6% 48.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Garrett Richards
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 9 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 6 3.60 2.28 25.0% 6.5% 54.2% 27.0% 24.3%
2018 9 3.73 3.47 27.0% 10.7% 55.4% 33.9% 19.0%
L14 2 3.96 2.19 17.4% 2.2% 48.6% 40.5% 16.2%

Richards is great at two things — inducing ground balls (55%) and striking batters out (27%). Those are basically the two statistics that I value most when gauging a pitcher, although that’s not always the case with elite pitchers like Chris Sale and Max Scherzer. Basically what I’m trying to say is that Richards has elite stuff, yet he is priced at the bottom of the pitching barrel. A matchup against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre is difficult, but I’m more than willing to take a chance on Richards in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Richards is an elite tournament play on multi-pitcher sites.

J.A. Happ
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,500 Salary: $18,600
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.11 3.53 22.7% 7.4% 46.9% 26.7% 20.3%
2018 9 2.91 4.15 30.7% 6.1% 50.0% 30.3% 18.9%
L14 2 2.83 6.10 29.6% 4.6% 55.2% 34.5% 24.1%

Happ is having a breakout season at the age of 35. While it’s very unlikely for a pitcher to have his best season at this age, his average fastball velocity and swinging strike rates are both at career high levels. If they continue, there’s a decent chance that he can sustain this success. Happ currently owns a 2.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a ground ball rate of 50%. A matchup against the Angels is better than most would expect, especially if they roll out the projected lineup below (low walk rate, above-average strikeout rate against southpaws).

Quick Breakdown: Happ is viable in tournaments, especially if we are expecting low ownership.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Even though this game is being played in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I have interest in both of the starting pitchers. Naturally, I will have very little ownership to these two offenses. On the season, J.A. Happ has an elite strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. Mike Trout is the one batter on my radar from the Angels. Statistically, he is having one of the best seasons in the history of baseball. Against southpaws, he currently owns a .504 xwOBA with a .387 ISO.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.316 0.322 0.189 42.9% 9.1% 11.4% 22.9% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $3,500 SS $6,700
2 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.347 0.366 0.109 33.3% 17.9% 7.1% 54.8% SS $3,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,500
3 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.504 0.409 0.387 33.3% 20.5% 17.9% 20.8% OF $4,800 OF $5,200 CF $10,100
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.301 0.295 0.097 40.0% 5.9% 20.6% 36.0% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,900
5 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.238 0.344 0.061 23.3% 5.7% 8.6% 30.0% 2B $2,400 2B $3,300 2B $6,500
6 Jefry Marte RIGHT 0.346 0.358 0.323 20.8% 6.1% 21.2% 33.3% 1B $2,000 1B/3B $3,400 1B $6,700
7 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.316 0.275 0.182 50.0% 7.4% 29.6% 33.3% C $2,200 C $2,500 C $4,700
8 Chris Young RIGHT 0.250 0.233 0.179 25.0% 6.5% 25.8% 35.0% OF $2,100 P $4,000 P $8,000
9 Michael Hermosillo RIGHT 0.370 0.330 0.400 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 0.0% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 CF $6,600

Elite Plays – Mike Trout (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mike Trout (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays typically play well at home, but draw a difficult matchup against Garrett Richards. In addition to having high strikeout and ground ball rates, he has held left-handed hitters to a .270 xwOBA this season. He has struggled a bit against righties though, allowing a .352 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate. I still don’t feel great about the Blue Jays here, but Josh Donaldson and Teoscar Hernandez are viable one-offs in large-field tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.365 0.371 0.191 38.9% 19.5% 31.0% 35.2% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.303 0.254 0.213 32.1% 13.6% 26.1% 47.2% 3B $4,000 3B $4,400 3B $8,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.399 0.364 0.204 35.7% 17.4% 24.0% 31.4% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,200
4 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.458 0.428 0.302 46.3% 5.4% 21.5% 34.3% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,500
5 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.356 0.323 0.209 32.6% 7.9% 16.7% 38.9% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
6 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.376 0.283 0.195 33.7% 6.0% 17.9% 37.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 CF $7,500
7 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.329 0.384 0.111 36.4% 10.0% 21.3% 50.9% 1B $2,100 1B $2,800 1B $5,600
8 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.347 0.342 0.128 46.4% 14.5% 34.5% 46.4% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.236 0.290 0.000 40.0% 0.0% 37.5% 44.4% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Teoscar Hernandez

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Boston Tampa Bay
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Jake Faria
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-205 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.258 0.227 21.1% 2.7% 40.5% 47.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.391 36.5% 19.8% 18.6% 32.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.259 0.259 27.6% 6.6% 34.0% 40.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.380 39.5% 3.8% 17.9% 30.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,500 Salary: $13,100 Salary: $25,600
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 10 2.57 2.29 34.9% 6.0% 41.1% 26.8% 28.2%
L14 2 1.91 3.21 44.4% 7.4% 38.5% 30.8% 23.1%

It’s crazy to think that Sale doesn’t have the best numbers in baseball with a 2.57 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 35%. While Max Scherzer and Gerrit Cole have slightly better numbers, we know that Sale has as much upside as anyone when he takes the mound. He sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Tampa Bay and comes into the game as a massive favorite. The Rays have actually fared well against left-handed pitching this season, but their projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against southpaws. Sale is right there with Cole as the top pitching option of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is an elite play in all formats. If I had to choose an ace with everything else being equal, I’d give a slight edge to Cole.

Jake Faria
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $10,900
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 14 4.26 3.43 23.5% 8.7% 38.3% 31.2% 19.8%
2018 9 5.11 5.20 18.2% 10.9% 31.6% 38.4% 13.5%
L14 2 6.52 8.71 10.4% 10.4% 19.4% 36.1% 5.6%

Faria was expected to take a leap forward this season, but he continues to stumble backwards. If this was Frogger (or Crossy Road for our younger readers), the screen would have caught up to him and left him behind already. In nine starts, he has a 5.11 SIERA with an 11% walk rate and a 38% hard contact rate. He is an easy avoid against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has a .372 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Faria in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have an exploitable matchup against Jake Faria, but are facing him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Games in Tropicana Field tend to be low scoring and this one features a total of only 7.0 runs. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Red Sox cover the total themselves, there aren’t any batters from this lineup that I will be forcing into my lineups. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts are all viable tonight, but I prefer them individually rather than as a complete stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.527 0.470 0.349 50.0% 10.3% 13.1% 30.6% OF $5,400 OF $6,000 RF $10,900
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.377 0.381 0.226 28.0% 12.3% 11.6% 35.6% OF $4,600 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.347 0.239 0.150 29.3% 7.1% 16.3% 47.2% 1B $4,000 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.490 0.533 0.394 54.9% 9.7% 23.9% 43.1% OF $5,200 OF $5,200 RF $10,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.414 0.378 0.271 40.3% 2.9% 19.6% 45.5% SS $4,200 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.352 0.274 0.174 43.8% 8.2% 26.0% 43.2% 3B $3,200 3B $3,300 3B $6,700
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.257 0.268 0.151 24.0% 2.4% 19.5% 47.9% 2B $2,800 2B/SS $3,400 3B $6,900
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.263 0.228 0.033 19.2% 3.1% 14.3% 44.2% C $2,100 C $2,600 C $4,600
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.320 0.209 0.120 32.3% 11.1% 25.9% 46.2% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – YELLOW

Tampa Bay

The Rays have one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to a 35% strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA this season. There are better ways to create leverage on the field than by targeting the Rays’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.425 0.358 0.361 34.5% 25.0% 14.6% 41.4% SS $2,500 2B/SS $3,000 2B $5,700
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.360 0.350 0.275 38.9% 7.1% 26.8% 38.9% 1B $3,700 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.287 0.373 0.025 32.1% 4.8% 28.6% 57.1% 3B $3,100 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.379 0.280 0.200 44.4% 6.3% 18.8% 52.8% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $5,700
5 Christian Arroyo RIGHT 0.418 0.450 0.333 75.0% 14.3% 28.6% 50.0% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $3,000 3B $5,900
6 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.360 0.291 0.125 39.1% 21.4% 21.4% 52.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 IF/OF $4,600
7 Johnny Field RIGHT 0.358 0.342 0.233 33.3% 6.3% 28.1% 40.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,100 CF $5,600
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.224 0.243 0.097 27.3% 3.0% 30.3% 70.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,100 CF $5,700
9 Jesus Sucre RIGHT 0.325 0.227 0.067 42.9% 6.3% 6.3% 57.1% C $2,000 C $2,400 C $4,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious