MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-31 02:47:52

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

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Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Oakland at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Oakland								Cleveland
			Sonny Gray							Trevor Bauer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-160							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.312	0.322	28.1%	6.8%	19.0%	53.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.315	0.326	37.5%	7.7%	24.4%	39.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.356	0.325	37.2%	8.9%	19.3%	56.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.325	0.331	29.0%	9.4%	20.0%	54.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sonny Gray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28
	2016	22	4.32	5.69	18.2%	8.1%	53.9%	33.6%	16.1%
	2017	5	3.42	3.34	23.3%	6.7%	58.5%	28.6%	15.5%

This will be the forgotten game on the schedule today because it starts an hour earlier than the rest and isn’t featured in the main slates on FanDuel, DraftKings, or FantasyDraft. Gray is coming off of his two best starts in arguably the last two seasons. He had eight strikeouts against the Red Sox and 11 strikeouts against the Marlins. His swinging strike rate is at a career best 11.2%, but I want to see a few more starts before making any definitive statements about the sustainability of his strikeout rate.

Quick Breakdown: Take a wait and see approach with Gray, especially since he draws a tough road start against the Indians.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28	Salary Rank:		of 28
	2016	28	4.22	4.26	20.7%	8.6%	48.7%	31.9%	19.0%
	2017	9	3.54	6.30	27.3%	8.3%	42.6%	36.7%	13.7%

Bauer would make an interesting SP2 if this game was featured on the main slate. You can still look at him in the all-day slate, but the majority of DFS players won’t even see this game on the schedule. Bauer has some serious positive regression coming his way, as there is nearly a three-run gap between his SIERA and ERA. He has shown nice strikeout upside this season (27%) and the A’s have the fifth highest strikeout rate of any team against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is viable in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games, but unfortunately, he’s not included in the main slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Trevor Bauer has been shelled a few times this season, but the A’s come into the game as a large underdog on the road. If you are targeting this offense, it’s better to use their hitters as one-offs rather than as a full stack. Bauer has allowed a .326+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters, but also has an above-average strikeout rate to batters from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.298	0.271	0.139	26.8%	6.3%	19.0%	47.9%	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
2	Chad Pinder	RIGHT	0.359	0.406	0.288	39.5%	10.2%	25.4%	36.8%	2B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.323	0.318	0.125	32.8%	8.3%	16.6%	37.5%	2B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.352	0.372	0.291	41.1%	7.5%	27.9%	43.3%	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.330	0.363	0.161	34.3%	9.9%	15.3%	39.7%	1B	$3,400	N/A	N/A
6	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.325	0.327	0.189	32.7%	4.7%	24.0%	39.3%	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
7	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.313	0.323	0.166	27.0%	7.2%	15.3%	30.4%	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.304	0.323	0.160	32.7%	5.6%	20.0%	43.5%	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
9	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.344	0.368	0.208	37.3%	17.8%	22.2%	41.4%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians are sizable favorites tonight at home, but Sonny Gray has flashed some serious form in his last two starts, striking out a combined 19 hitters while only giving up four runs. Gray is surprisingly tougher on lefties than he is on righties, which makes Edwin Encarnacion a sneaky one-off target. The left-handed bats of Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, and Carlos Santana are also in play, but are secondary plays in the all-day slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.341	0.342	0.189	38.0%	9.2%	19.5%	37.1%	2B	$3,700			N/A	N/A
2	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.352	0.349	0.169	27.6%	8.9%	13.0%	46.2%	SS	$3,500			N/A	N/A
3	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.348	0.353	0.149	37.7%	10.0%	13.3%	47.4%	OF	$3,900			N/A	N/A
4	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.378	0.403	0.267	38.3%	15.0%	16.9%	36.4%	1B	$3,600			N/A	N/A
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.361	0.379	0.254	37.8%	11.0%	21.3%	38.3%	1B	$3,700			N/A	N/A
6	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.355	0.333	0.166	26.4%	7.9%	9.7%	38.3%	3B	$2,800			N/A	N/A
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.218	0.264	0.148	30.5%	4.1%	25.5%	38.5%	C	$2,600			N/A	N/A
8	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.459	0.390	0.250	41.7%	20.0%	32.0%	36.4%	OF	$2,400			N/A	N/A
9	Daniel Robertson	RIGHT	0.291	0.298	0.091	29.0%	13.8%	27.7%	41.7%	OF	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,600	SS	$5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Pittsburgh
			Robbie Ray							Ivan Nova
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-102							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.285	0.254	38.4%	6.5%	33.2%	52.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.345	0.361	36.4%	3.2%	11.9%	46.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.336	38.5%	10.7%	27.2%	41.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.295	0.291	31.2%	3.6%	21.2%	58.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Robbie Ray
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:		$18,400
	Salary Rank:		2 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		4 of 28
	2016	32	3.59	4.90	28.1%	9.2%	45.7%	36.6%	16.0%
	2017	10	3.73	3.45	29.8%	11.7%	37.4%	44.8%	16.8%

Ray is having another excellent season. Since the start of 2016, he has one of the highest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. He does tend to walk a few batters now and then and he typically doesn’t pitch deep into games, but we can overlook all of that thanks to a 30% strikeout rate. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pirates, who are ranked below the major league average in both team wOBA and strikeout rate against left-handed pitching and he gets to face them in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: The story of this slate is searching for an SP2 behind Chris Sale. Ray is viable in tournaments and as an SP2 in cash games.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ivan Nova
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$12,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28	Salary Rank:		17 of 28
	2016	26	3.76	4.17	18.6%	4.1%	53.6%	34.4%	18.5%
	2017	10	4.09	2.83	13.2%	1.8%	50.2%	32.2%	14.0%

Nova’s strikeouts have disappeared in his last four starts. During that stretch, he has allowed more earned runs (12) than strikeouts (10). His form is an issue, but he gets to face a right-handed heavy Diamondbacks’ lineup at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Nova’s price is all the way down to $6,400 on DraftKings and Arizona does have the sixth highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Nova is far from a cash game option, but he’s an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings and FantasyDraft.

Quick Breakdown: Nova draws a favorable strikeout matchup at home. The form is a concern, but he’s worth a look in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The book on Ivan Nova is straightforward; avoid right-handed hitters against him and load up on the lefties. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .361 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact and a 12% strikeout rate to left-handed hitters. This isn’t a great ballpark for hitters, but Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, and Jake Lamb are all viable targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Gregor Blanco	LEFT	0.277	0.275	0.085	24.4%	10.9%	20.1%	46.3%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
2	David Peralta	LEFT	0.337	0.313	0.166	36.6%	5.3%	18.9%	54.5%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,600
3	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.383	0.384	0.209	38.9%	14.4%	21.0%	46.1%	1B	$4,600	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,200
4	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.389	0.376	0.296	40.9%	10.9%	24.3%	42.9%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,300	3B	$10,400
5	Yasmany Tomas	RIGHT	0.321	0.325	0.220	40.0%	5.3%	24.1%	47.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
6	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.317	0.295	0.140	32.0%	4.4%	21.0%	49.1%	SS	$3,100	OF/SS	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,000
7	Chris Herrmann	LEFT	0.345	0.339	0.238	44.4%	9.7%	26.1%	41.2%	C	$2,200	C/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
8	Brandon Drury	RIGHT	0.346	0.314	0.169	32.3%	6.4%	21.4%	49.1%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
9	Robbie Ray	LEFT	0.261	0.205	0.111	28.6%	1.6%	41.0%	62.1%	P	$9,400	P	$9,600	P	$18,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Robbie Ray is the exact opposite when it comes to his splits. He has true splits for a left-handed pitcher, which means he struggles against right-handed hitters. Since the start of last season, Ray has allowed a .336 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to righties. The difference between Ray and Nova is that Ray has a high strikeout rate against batters from both sides of the plate. Josh Harrison, David Freese, and Andrew McCutchen all hit southpaws well, but are secondary options at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.374	0.298	0.188	33.6%	4.1%	14.4%	37.8%	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
2	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.321	0.333	0.166	27.3%	14.0%	14.6%	45.4%	SS	$3,000	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,200
3	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.314	0.343	0.224	26.0%	10.4%	13.4%	54.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
4	David Freese	RIGHT	0.395	0.377	0.193	45.0%	14.2%	26.1%	57.5%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
5	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.362	0.364	0.245	36.7%	13.2%	17.8%	38.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,400
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.359	0.384	0.048	42.9%	14.1%	14.1%	56.5%	C	$3,300	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
7	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.317	0.299	0.176	29.3%	8.9%	27.8%	47.5%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
8	Alen Hanson	SWITCH	0.222	0.250	0.000	14.3%	6.7%	0.0%	84.6%	2B	$2,000	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
9	Ivan Nova	RIGHT	0.000	0.056	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	58.3%	66.7%	P	$8,400	P	$6,400	P	$12,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, David Freese, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Baltimore
			Luis Severino							Chris Tillman
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-125							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.331	28.3%	7.5%	22.4%	46.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.323	0.326	29.6%	11.3%	21.5%	42.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.333	0.321	31.7%	7.2%	25.2%	48.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.315	0.339	32.3%	7.6%	17.2%	41.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Luis Severino
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$19,600
	Salary Rank:		4 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28	Salary Rank:		3 of 28
	2016	11	4.06	5.83	21.2%	8.0%	45.1%	29.4%	20.6%
	2017	9	3.14	3.11	27.6%	6.3%	51.4%	31.0%	17.2%

Severino has as much strikeout upside as any pitcher in the slate not-named Chris Sale. In nine starts this season, Severino is boasting a 3.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%. He has good command, an above-average ground ball rate, and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. Pitching in Camden Yards is never easy, but we know the Orioles can strikeout at a high rate. Severino is the cheapest on FanDuel, but we have the issue of that being a one pitcher site. I see Severino as a viable tournament play, but it will be tough to fit him in cash games on multi-pitcher sites if you are also playing Sale.

Quick Breakdown: Severino has a high ceiling in this matchup, but also a relatively low floor for a pitcher at his price point. He’s viable in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chris Tillman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		14 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28	Salary Rank:		16 of 28
	2016	30	4.61	3.77	19.6%	9.2%	41.2%	31.5%	18.3%
	2017	4	4.85	4.43	15.8%	9.5%	44.3%	28.6%	24.3%

Tillman has not looked great in his first four starts of the season. He hasn’t given up a lot of had contact, but his strikeout rate is down and he hasn’t shown great command. He draws one of the worst matchups on the board tonight, as he takes on the Yankees in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Tillman would have to be dirt cheap to even remotely deserve consideration and that’s not the case tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Tillman in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees are always an appealing stack because they get on base often and hit a lot of home runs. This is a slate where the stack will get overlooked thanks to their implied run total that isn’t quite as high as a few of the other teams on the schedule. Chris Tillman strikeout rate is down this season and he has allowed a .326+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters in the last two years.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.342	0.320	0.138	28.8%	12.8%	17.3%	48.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,800
2	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.426	0.375	0.304	38.7%	9.0%	22.5%	50.3%	C	$3,500	C	$4,700	C	$9,300
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.340	0.348	0.199	35.6%	9.2%	20.8%	51.2%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
4	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.326	0.306	0.166	30.7%	3.4%	19.2%	49.6%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
5	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.400	0.389	0.311	48.3%	10.5%	33.8%	41.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100	RF	$10,000
6	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.306	0.266	0.172	24.7%	3.3%	15.5%	41.8%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,100	SS	$8,000
7	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.337	0.309	0.154	23.4%	13.1%	17.4%	47.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,400	CF	$8,400
8	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.336	0.350	0.251	39.9%	11.8%	34.3%	29.7%	1B	$2,700	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,800
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.298	0.266	0.126	20.8%	2.9%	11.1%	49.4%	SS	$2,200	3B/SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Luis Severino was shelled in a number of starts last season, but he is clearly a much better pitcher in 2017. He has an elite strikeout rate, he keeps the ball on the ground against both left and right-handed hitters, and he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact. Even though this game has an over/under of 9.0 runs, I have little to no interest in the Orioles tonight outside of deep GPP fliers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.335	0.368	0.169	33.3%	10.8%	21.2%	45.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.338	0.341	0.192	32.2%	5.5%	16.2%	43.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.347	0.360	0.240	35.1%	7.0%	18.8%	38.1%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.372	0.380	0.266	37.8%	7.7%	23.5%	40.0%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.345	0.351	0.262	42.3%	13.8%	34.8%	36.2%	1B	$3,600	1B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,500
6	Welington Castillo	RIGHT	0.310	0.299	0.135	33.5%	6.1%	26.6%	40.1%	C	$3,300	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
7	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.338	0.315	0.203	29.3%	3.1%	19.8%	42.5%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
8	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.353	0.348	0.118	29.5%	9.8%	15.2%	51.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,400
9	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.286	0.289	0.115	30.1%	4.8%	16.7%	43.1%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
LA Dodgers								St. Louis
			Kenta Maeda							Michael Wacha
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAD-110							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.319	0.321	32.6%	9.5%	19.3%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.311	29.2%	8.4%	19.3%	45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.265	0.256	25.0%	4.2%	29.7%	44.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.315	28.6%	6.7%	20.4%	47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kenta Maeda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$17,400
	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28	Salary Rank:		5 of 28
	2016	32	3.69	3.48	25.0%	7.0%	43.9%	29.0%	20.0%
	2017	8	3.76	5.08	23.7%	5.9%	35.2%	27.7%	17.7%

Maeda may have a 5.08 ERA this season, but we should expect some positive regression when it comes to his HR/FB rate. He has an above-average strikeout rate and has held batters to a 28% hard contact rate this season. The biggest issue that we have with Maeda in DFS is his inconsistent pitch count. In his last five starts, he has thrown 83, 101, 87, 104, and 78 pitches. That is quite the range of pitch counts, which makes predicting his fantasy production difficult. He may gain some traction as an SP2 tonight, but I don’t love him at this price point in a road start against the Cardinals.

Quick Breakdown: Maeda isn’t a terrible play tonight, but I will be looking elsewhere for my SP2.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Wacha
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,600
	Salary Rank:		13 of 28	Salary Rank:		15 of 28	Salary Rank:		15 of 28
	2016	24	4.31	5.09	18.8%	7.4%	46.6%	30.0%	18.8%
	2017	8	3.79	3.66	23.4%	7.5%	45.6%	24.8%	17.8%

Wacha struggled in his last start against the Dodgers, but the game was played in Los Angeles. He will hope for a better performance this time around in St. Louis. Wacha has improved drastically this season, posting a 3.79 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. His velocity is up, his command has been good, and he isn’t allowing a lot of hard contact. The Dodgers have been very good against right-handed pitching this season, but Wacha makes sense as an SP2 on DraftKings ($6,900) and FantasyDraft ($13,600).

Quick Breakdown: Wacha is back at home playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Look for him to get back on track against the Dodgers.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers are usually a team that we like targeting against right-handed pitching, but their matchup against Michael Wacha is less than ideal. Sure, they scored five runs against him in only four innings the other night, but that game was in Los Angeles. If you look at Wacha’s splits over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate. Chase Utley has homered in three of his last five games, but something tells me that is more of an aberration than a trend.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.326	0.335	0.164	35.7%	8.7%	24.0%	42.3%	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,600	2B	$7,200
2	Corey Seager	LEFT	0.396	0.403	0.212	41.3%	10.1%	17.7%	44.9%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,400	SS	$8,700
3	Yasmani Grandal	SWITCH	0.363	0.352	0.256	39.7%	11.6%	25.4%	43.7%	C	$3,400	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
4	Adrian Gonzalez	LEFT	0.350	0.346	0.172	35.9%	9.6%	19.0%	43.8%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,200	1B	$6,400
5	Chris Taylor	RIGHT	0.351	0.315	0.196	30.0%	11.8%	25.2%	52.6%	3B	$3,300	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
6	Cody Bellinger	LEFT	0.375	0.320	0.309	40.0%	10.9%	29.3%	37.7%	OF	$3,800	1B/OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,600
7	Chase Utley	LEFT	0.330	0.331	0.151	38.8%	8.2%	17.9%	47.9%	2B	$2,300	1B/2B	$3,200	2B	$6,400
8	Yasiel Puig	RIGHT	0.324	0.326	0.165	34.4%	7.7%	21.1%	48.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
9	Kenta Maeda	RIGHT	0.154	0.129	0.075	6.5%	1.6%	23.0%	55.6%	P	$8,900	P	$8,900	P	$17,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Compared to some of the other teams in the slate, the Dodgers and Cardinals have fairly low implied run totals. Kenta Maeda has been tough on right-handed hitters, but has allowed a .321 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons. Matt Carpenter is only $3,000 on FanDuel if you want to look his way as a one-off target in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dexter Fowler	SWITCH	0.355	0.338	0.179	29.9%	13.8%	25.1%	36.3%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,600
2	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.362	0.360	0.228	47.3%	9.0%	33.1%	50.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
3	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.384	0.415	0.258	46.6%	16.1%	19.7%	28.4%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
4	Jedd Gyorko	RIGHT	0.369	0.346	0.284	35.5%	7.9%	24.1%	43.1%	3B	$3,500	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,200
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.329	0.336	0.120	31.7%	6.1%	10.9%	47.3%	C	$3,000	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
6	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.365	0.317	0.212	30.5%	6.9%	12.7%	44.2%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,600
7	Greg Garcia	LEFT	0.360	0.357	0.111	25.4%	15.8%	16.5%	48.3%	2B	$2,700	3B/SS	$2,500	3B	$4,800
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.312	0.312	0.219	40.3%	4.7%	30.7%	41.3%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,800
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.083	0.098	0.000	4.8%	6.3%	50.0%	78.6%	P	$8,100	P	$6,900	P	$13,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Toronto
			Asher Wojciechowski							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-178							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.215	0.314	16.7%	11.1%	22.2%	16.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.295	0.346	36.5%	7.1%	18.2%	45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.303	0.312	50.0%	0.0%	14.3%	33.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.315	30.8%	6.9%	21.9%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Asher Wojciechowski
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$4,500	Salary:		$9,000
	Salary Rank:		27 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28	Salary Rank:		25 of 28

	2017	0	5.04	2.25	18.8%	6.3%	25.0%	33.3%	16.7%

Wojciechowski is not a big time prospect. He is 28 years old and only making his fourth career major league start. In his last full season in the minors, he finished with an ERA over 5.00 with a strikeout rate of only 16%. There is a reason why the Blue Jays have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Wojciechowski has an awesome last name, but he wasn’t made for DFS.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,200	Salary:		$16,000
	Salary Rank:		11 of 28	Salary Rank:		8 of 28	Salary Rank:		8 of 28
	2016	32	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	42.5%	31.6%	17.8%
	2017	3	2.53	4.50	29.0%	0.0%	42.9%	36.7%	14.3%

Happ is making his first start in nearly a month and a half, after missing time with elbow inflammation. He threw 56 pitches in one minor league rehab start last week and will likely be on some sort of pitching count tonight. After missing this much time, the Blue Jays aren’t going to throw him out there for 100+ pitches. This would be a good spot to use Happ as an SP2, as he is a large favorite at home against the Reds, but there are enough concerns that we can avoid Happ tonight. Not only is a pitch count likely, but there could be some rust as well.

Quick Breakdown: We can fire up Happ soon, but let’s wait a start or two before using him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

There are very few lefties in baseball with reverse-splits. The lefty/lefty matchup is typically one that we want to avoid in fantasy baseball, but this is a rare exception. Over the last two seasons, Happ has allowed a .346 xwOBA and a 37% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. First base is always loaded with options, but if you are making a bunch of lineups, you can be overweight on the field on Joey Votto with 5% exposure. Adam Duvall and Eugenio Suarez are also viable if you want to play a super contrarian three-man stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.241	0.243	0.079	16.0%	3.4%	20.7%	46.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,300
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.346	0.315	0.230	34.5%	7.2%	17.0%	40.9%	SS	$3,300	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,000
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.384	0.349	0.195	30.9%	12.1%	21.1%	54.6%	1B	$4,500	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,300
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.371	0.361	0.270	41.2%	9.4%	24.3%	36.1%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,000
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.384	0.347	0.261	37.6%	10.9%	25.0%	45.3%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,700
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.340	0.388	0.272	39.7%	3.5%	15.1%	44.1%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,400
7	Patrick Kivlehan	RIGHT	0.350	0.318	0.214	23.5%	12.5%	34.4%	41.2%	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,400	3B	$4,800
8	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.301	0.344	0.069	25.0%	19.4%	13.9%	50.0%	C	$2,600	C	$2,900	C	$5,600
9	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.292	0.311	0.102	22.7%	4.8%	10.5%	48.9%	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the second highest implied run total in the slate. They are projected to score more runs than the Mariners, who are playing in Coors Field. Toronto is facing an inexperienced pitcher that has an ERA over 5.00 in the minors. The only downside is that after scoring 17 runs last night, everyone will want to stack the Blue Jays again tonight. They will be popular, but for good reason. We can load up on both left and right-handed hitters against Asher Wojciechowski.

Here is a question: Will the Blue Jays score more runs than there are letters in Wojciechowski? If so, you might want to be on the Toronto stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.300	0.294	0.118	26.3%	5.1%	15.1%	48.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.403	0.402	0.272	40.4%	14.7%	19.0%	39.8%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,600	3B	$8,800
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.363	0.370	0.222	39.1%	16.5%	21.8%	36.8%	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,600
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.315	0.398	0.202	40.8%	8.6%	18.9%	48.6%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,600
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.327	0.345	0.207	41.8%	11.0%	32.7%	30.5%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,500
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.322	0.317	0.158	30.3%	11.5%	26.7%	49.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
7	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.323	0.356	0.188	34.4%	7.4%	17.6%	40.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,900	SS	$7,600
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.336	0.312	0.171	31.3%	4.9%	19.5%	44.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,500
9	Ezequiel Carrera	LEFT	0.295	0.268	0.105	24.6%	8.1%	21.5%	57.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,700	RF	$5,400

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 30th

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Stackability Rating System:

Oakland at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chad Pinder, Jed Lowrie, Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregor Blanco, David Peralta, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, David Freese, Andrew McCutchen

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Matt Holliday, Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Dodgers at St. Louis – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal

Stackability – ORANGE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dexter Fowler, Matt Carpenter

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kevin Pillar, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Troy Tulowitzki

Stackability – GREEN

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