MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 3rd - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-05-03 23:24:42

Minnesota at Houston – 8:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Minnesota					Houston
			Alex Meyer					Collin McHugh
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -145					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.722	1	0.0%	12.5%	SP vs. Left	0.307	10	19.3%	6.5%
SP vs. Right	0.511	1	25.0%	18.8%	SP vs. Right	0.331	11	19.7%	5.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Alex Meyer
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,800	Salary:	$4,600
				FPPG:	0.0	FPPG:	-3.4
				Pitcher Rating:	61.2	Pitcher Rank:	17
2016	0	3.86	11.1%	11.1%	57.1%	14.3%	29
2015	0	6.57	20.0%	20.0%	12.5%	33.3%	29

Meyer is making his first major league start tonight, after making three appearances out of the bullpen in the last two seasons. He is not a top prospect like his teammate, Jose Berrios, but he has posted at least a 23% strikeout rate in each of his last three seasons in the minors. He draws a difficult matchup for his first start, as the Astros are one of the best offenses against right-handed pitching. Let’s take a wait and see approach with Meyer.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Collin McHugh
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$7,700	Salary:	$8,300
				FPPG:	18.4	FPPG:	6.8
				Pitcher Rating:	67.0	Pitcher Rank:	9
2016	5	4.36	16.2%	4.8%	35.4%	19.5%	23
2015	32	3.91	19.9%	6.2%	45.4%	25.1%	22

McHugh hasn’t been great in his first five starts of the season, posting a 4.36 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 16.2%. He has cut down on his walks, but he hasn’t been producing as many ground balls. He is listed as a favorite tonight against the Twins, but Minnesota has some power bats that could really take advantage of the home run-friendly Minute Maid Park. There are better pitching options in McHugh’s price range.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Twins Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.152 (14 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.40 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.24 (7 of 30)

The Twins may be underdogs tonight, but they still have the seventh highest team total on the board. This is an interesting matchup for the Twins, as Collin McHugh is a reverse-splits pitcher that has a high fly-ball rate. All of the right-handed hitters in this Twins lineup are worth a look tonight, as is their leadoff man – Danny Santana.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Danny Santana	SWITCH	0.228	0.072	0.362	OF	$2,500	SS	$2,300
2	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.310	0.195	0.286	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,800
3	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.326	0.115	0.372	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,500
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.382	0.237	0.435	OF	$3,500	3B/OF	$4,000
5	Byung Ho Park	RIGHT	0.380	0.344	0.437	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,600
6	Trevor Plouffe	RIGHT	0.317	0.196		3B	$2,800	3B	$3,300
7	Oswaldo Arcia	LEFT	0.311	0.183	0.301	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
8	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.306	0.147	0.243	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,500
9	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.261	0.077	0.326	C	$2,200	C	$2,300
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.174	0.345	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Danny Santana, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Byung-Ho Park

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Houston

Astros Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.324 (7 of 30)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.188 (2 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.68 (22 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.76 (2 of 30)

The Astros get to take on a rookie that is making his first major league start. Houston comes into this game with the second highest team total on the board. While I do like their offense as a whole tonight, I will be looking for value in their lineup. Colby Rasmus, Evan Gattis, Tyler White, and Preston Tucker all stand out, as all four make nice value plays at their respective positions.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.336	0.164	0.444	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,500
2	George Springer	RIGHT	0.331	0.156	0.328	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,900
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.358	0.204	0.342	SS	$4,100	SS	$5,000
4	Colby Rasmus	LEFT	0.346	0.260	0.373	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400
5	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.322	0.224	0.327	C	$2,600	OF	$4,300
6	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.333	0.217	0.158	1B	$2,300	1B	$4,400
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.340	0.235	0.143	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,600
8	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.334	0.210	0.276	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,700
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.306	0.181	0.262	C	$2,300	C	$3,300
	Team Averages	—	0.334	0.206	0.295	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Colby Rasmus (FD), Evan Gattis (FD), Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Tyler White

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 8:15 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Philadelphia					St. Louis
			Aaron Nola					Michael Wacha
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -145					7.0
SP vs. Left	0.313	5	15.9%	7.1%	SP vs. Left	0.271	7	20.2%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.267	9	28.9%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.316	14	19.9%	7.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Aaron Nola
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,200	Salary:	$8,500
				FPPG:	36.6	FPPG:	21.8
				Pitcher Rating:	67.1	Pitcher Rank:	8
2016	5	2.71	29.1%	4.7%	46.3%	19.1%	15
2015	13	3.66	21.4%	6.0%	47.6%	28.8%	11

Nola has been a great value option to start the season. In his first five starts of the year, he has a 2.71 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29.1%. Crazy, right? He has cut down on his walks this season and his hard hit contact rate is below 20%. While I am high on him moving forward, this isn’t the best matchup. The Cardinals are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. For that reason, Nola is more of a GPP play tonight.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Michael Wacha
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,700	Salary:	$9,000
				FPPG:	30.8	FPPG:	15.6
				Pitcher Rating:	77.0	Pitcher Rank:	4
2016	5	3.95	19.7%	7.4%	44.8%	29.6%	21
2015	30	4.02	20.1%	7.6%	45.8%	29.7%	21

Wacha has posted nearly identical numbers to those from a season ago. In his first five starts, he has a 3.95 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.7%. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Phillies, who have one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. Wacha may not have as high of a strikeout rate as Aaron Nola, but he has the better matchup and the better chance of picking up a win. Wacha is a viable target in both cash games and GPPs.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Phillies Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.297 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.137 (28 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.28 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.24 (28 of 30)

As mentioned above, the Phillies are one of the worst offenses in all of baseball. They are ranked 28th or worse in all four of the categories listed above, including their team total tonight. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against Michael Wacha in the pitcher-friendly Turner Field. The Phillies are an easy offense to avoid tonight.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.346	0.128	0.397	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,400
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.295	0.117	0.333	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,000
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.350	0.197	0.319	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,500
4	Ryan Howard	LEFT	0.332	0.236	0.249	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,300
5	Carlos Ruiz	RIGHT	0.241	0.062	0.497	C	$2,900	C	$2,400
6	Cesar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.299	0.078	0.319	2B	$2,200	2B	$2,700
7	David Lough	LEFT	0.251	0.109	0.316	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,100
8	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.084	0.000	0.000	P	$8,200	P	$8,500
9	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.261	0.124	0.208	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.273	0.117	0.293	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

Cardinals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.318 (4 of 30)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.148 (9 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.72 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.76 (24 of 30)

The Cardinals may be favorites tonight, but they draw a difficult matchup against Aaron Nola, who has been lights out this season. The Cardinals have the seventh lowest team total on the board. Even though they mash right-handed pitching as a team, their hitters seem a bit overpriced for the matchup in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.386	0.244	0.306	3B	$3,900	3B	$3,900
2	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.348	0.187	0.373	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,700
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.367	0.174	0.370	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,200
4	Brandon Moss	LEFT	0.315	0.219	0.315	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,200
5	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.313	0.100	0.411	C	$3,000	C	$3,000
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.306	0.164	0.358	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,800
7	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.472	0.281	0.453	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,000
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.329	0.139	0.324	2B	$2,100	2B	$3,200
9	Michael Wacha	RIGHT	0.141	0.021	0.000	P	$8,700	P	$9,000
	Team Averages	—	0.331	0.170	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Stackability – NONE

Washington at Kansas City – 8:15 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Washington					Kansas City
			Tanner Roark					Chris Young
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			KC -120					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.331	9	15.9%	8.1%	SP vs. Left	0.334	11	16.8%	11.0%
SP vs. Right	0.307	9	17.7%	5.0%	SP vs. Right	0.253	11	18.9%	6.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Tanner Roark
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,400	Salary:	$6,900
				FPPG:	37.2	FPPG:	20.2
				Pitcher Rating:	46.7	Pitcher Rank:	22
2016	5	3.82	23.4%	10.2%	51.3%	20.2%	7
2015	12	4.16	15.0%	5.6%	47.8%	26.3%	1

The Roark train is full-steam ahead right now. After striking out 15 batters against the Twins, he backed it up with six strikeouts against the Phillies. He has now pitched seven shutout innings in back-to-back starts. Do I think that this is sustainable? Unfortunately, no. He has a career strikeout rate of 17.4%. Some of that regression could start tonight against the Royals, who have been the toughest team to strikeout in each of the last two seasons.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Chris Young
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,500	Salary:	$5,900
				FPPG:	22.8	FPPG:	11.2
				Pitcher Rating:	52.3	Pitcher Rank:	20
2016	5	4.04	23.2%	8.9%	32.4%	40.8%	17
2015	18	5.15	16.6%	8.6%	25.5%	33.4%	28

You could basically copy the blurb I wrote about Tanner Roark and paste it here for Young. His strikeout rates over the last two seasons were 16.6% and 15.7%. If he proves me wrong then he proves me wrong, but I don’t think that a 36 year old pitcher is going to have a breakout season. I do like his cheap price point, but I don’t expect him to pitch very deep into this game. If you need a cheap GPP flier, I’d side with Andrew Cashner.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Nationals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (19 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.150 (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.13 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.88 (20 of 30)

The Nationals draw a mediocre matchup tonight against Chris Young in the pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium. They have the 11th lowest team total on the board. The one plus in this matchup is that Chris Young is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that has allowed a .334 wOBA to left-handed hitters. We know that Bryce Harper is capable of hitting home runs just about anywhere.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.266	0.125	0.305	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400
2	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.298	0.091	0.252	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,800
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.470	0.360	0.332	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,100
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.285	0.144	0.258	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,500
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.352	0.195	0.331	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,200
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.287	0.134	0.339	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800
7	Clint Robinson	LEFT	0.319	0.162	0.212	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$3,000
8	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.275	0.132	0.263	C	$2,800	C	$3,200
9	Danny Espinosa	SWITCH	0.301	0.169	0.311	SS	$2,500	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.317	0.168	0.289	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

Royals Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.319 (14 of 30)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.149 (19 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.38 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.12 (11 of 30)

The Royals will try to put an end to Tanner Roark scoreless streak tonight. They have the 11th highest team total tonight at 4.12 runs. They are a team that rarely strikes out and likes to manufacture runs. While I expect their offense to put some runs on the board tonight, there aren’t any individual hitters that stand out.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.264	0.063	0.233	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,300
2	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.354	0.196	0.396	3B	$3,400	3B	$3,800
3	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.324	0.123	0.227	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
4	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.384	0.186	0.436	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,200
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.357	0.231	0.240	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,400
6	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.343	0.160	0.331	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,400
7	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.333	0.199	0.385	C	$3,000	C	$3,500
8	Omar Infante	RIGHT	0.244	0.100	0.257	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,600
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.308	0.133	0.310	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.323	0.155	0.313	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – NONE

Seattle at Oakland – 10:05 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Seattle					Oakland
			Hisashi Iwakuma					Sonny Gray
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			OAK -125					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.308	9	20.6%	4.7%	SP vs. Left	0.256	8	21.9%	8.0%
SP vs. Right	0.298	13	21.2%	4.6%	SP vs. Right	0.283	12	19.1%	7.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Hisashi Iwakuma
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$8,000	Salary:	$7,900
				FPPG:	24.0	FPPG:	11.9
				Pitcher Rating:	72.7	Pitcher Rank:	7
2016	5	4.14	18.5%	6.7%	42.9%	27.6%	10
2015	20	3.36	21.5%	4.1%	50.4%	26.9%	4

Iwakuma has been good, but not great this season. In his first five starts, he has a 4.14 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 18.5%. His walk rate is up, while his ground ball rate is down. He draws a decent matchup tonight against the A’s, although they do have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team against right-handed pitching. At his price point, I prefer to target Michael Wacha.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Sonny Gray
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$9,700	Salary:	$9,300
				FPPG:	32.6	FPPG:	16.0
				Pitcher Rating:	76.7	Pitcher Rank:	5
2016	5	4.16	21.5%	12.4%	60.8%	30.4%	15
2015	31	3.80	20.3%	7.1%	52.7%	25.1%	27

Gray has really struggled with his command so far this season, posting a walk rate of 12.4%. His strikeout rate is similar to that of years past, but he is giving up a much higher hard hit contact rate. By walking so many batters, it has limited Gray’s strikeout upside, as his pitch count climbs higher than it should. I have him ranked as the fifth best pitching option tonight, but again, it’s worth it to pay up for Jake Arrieta or Matt Harvey.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Mariners Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (18 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.166 (6 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.21 (13 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.60 (26 of 30)

The Mariners have the fifth lowest team total on the board tonight, as they take on Sonny Gray in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Over the last two seasons, Gray has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. There are better matchups to exploit tonight.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.317	0.116	0.290	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,100
2	Seth Smith	LEFT	0.359	0.209	0.428	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,100
3	Robinson Cano	LEFT	0.363	0.199	0.354	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,100
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.365	0.229	0.347	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,800
5	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.354	0.189	0.295	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,200
6	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.325	0.180	0.346	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,500
7	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.249	0.127	0.248	C	$2,400	C	$2,400
8	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.327	0.076	0.359	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,200
9	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.269	0.129	0.232	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.325	0.162	0.322	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

Athletics Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.307 (23 of 30)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.146 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.50 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.90 (19 of 30)

The A’s may be small favorites tonight, but they have the 12th lowest team total on the board. They don’t hit right-handed pitching very well as a team and Hisashi Iwakuma has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Billy Burns	SWITCH	0.302	0.098	0.286	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
2	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.288	0.126	0.396	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,900
3	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.358	0.196	0.302	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,600
4	Khris Davis	RIGHT	0.350	0.243	0.335	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200
5	Stephen Vogt	LEFT	0.347	0.208	0.300	C	$2,900	C	$3,100
6	Coco Crisp	SWITCH	0.238	0.091	0.364	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
7	Chris Coghlan	LEFT	0.343	0.211	0.278	3B	$2,300	2B/3B	$3,000
8	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.319	0.107	0.316	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,000
9	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.288	0.146	0.253	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000
	Team Averages	—	0.315	0.158	0.314	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – NONE

Colorado at San Diego – 10:10 PM

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					San Diego
			Eddie Butler					Andrew Cashner
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			SD -120					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.445	8	10.8%	15.0%	SP vs. Left	0.366	14	19.2%	11.9%
SP vs. Right	0.358	5	14.6%	7.0%	SP vs. Right	0.311	7	21.5%	5.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Eddie Butler
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$5,700	Salary:	$5,300
				FPPG:	16.0	FPPG:	10.1
				Pitcher Rating:	46.1	Pitcher Rank:	24
2016	0	0.12	44.4%	0.0%	60.0%	0.0%	28
2015	16	5.38	11.9%	11.4%	50.0%	26.8%	25

Butler will be making his first start of the season. In 16 starts last year, he had a 5.38 SIERA with a walk rate (11.4%) that was nearly as high as his strikeout rate (11.9%). He draws a nice matchup against the Padres, but that’s not enough of a reason to warrant consideration.

Statistics	Starts	SIERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HH%	O-K%
Andrew Cashner
				FanDuel		DraftKings
				Salary:	$6,700	Salary:	$6,700
				FPPG:	21.4	FPPG:	10.3
				Pitcher Rating:	64.7	Pitcher Rank:	12
2016	5	4.32	19.6%	9.4%	42.5%	23.0%	5
2015	31	4.00	20.5%	8.2%	47.4%	30.2%	19

Cashner is my favorite pitching option below $7,000 tonight on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He hasn’t been great so far this season, but he is pitching at home in Petco Park, which may be the toughest ballpark for offensive production. Cashner has a 3.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.7% at home in his career. If he can work around the left-handed bats in the Rockies’ lineup, he could easily reach and exceed value as an SP2 tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Rockies Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.331 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.186 (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.50 (3 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.63 (25 of 30)

The Rockies have the sixth lowest team total on the board tonight, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid their offense completely. Similar to James Shields, Andrew Cashner really struggles against left-handed hitters. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .366 wOBA and 14 home runs to hitters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.351	0.174	0.374	OF	$4,200	OF	$3,700
2	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.338	0.361	0.337	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,100
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.418	0.319	0.310	OF	$3,800	OF	$3,900
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.389	0.315	0.465	3B	$5,000	3B	$4,400
5	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.338	0.169	0.340	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500
6	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.357	0.187	0.425	C	$3,000	C	$2,900
7	Ben Paulsen	LEFT	0.350	0.197	0.389	1B	$2,400	1B/OF	$2,600
8	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.325	0.102	0.245	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,000
9	Eddie Butler	RIGHT	0.046	0.000	0.000	P	$5,700	P	$5,300
	Team Averages	—	0.324	0.203	0.321	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Ben Paulsen

Stackability – NONE

San Diego

Padres Offense
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.299 (28 of 30)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.147 (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.80 (20 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.87 (22 of 30)

The Padres draw a decent matchup tonight against Eddie Butler, but they have to face him at home in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park. They have the ninth lowest team total on the board. There are a few interesting GPP plays here, but there are safer cash game targets elsewhere.

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.264	0.058	0.330	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,000
2	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.335	0.197	0.396	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,200
3	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.320	0.181	0.393	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400
4	Melvin Upton	RIGHT	0.317	0.166	0.254	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500
5	Alexei Ramirez	RIGHT	0.272	0.100	0.313	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,100
6	Derek Norris	RIGHT	0.278	0.137	0.181	C	$2,000	C	$3,100
7	Jemile Weeks	SWITCH	0.233	0.077	0.230	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,000
8	Adam Rosales	RIGHT	0.309	0.200	0.346	2B	$2,200	3B	$2,000
9	Andrew Cashner	RIGHT	0.101	0.000	0.295	P	$6,700	P	$6,700
	Team Averages	—	0.270	0.124	0.304	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, May 3rd - Page Three

Minnesota at Houston – 8:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Danny Santana, Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano, Byung-Ho Park

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Colby Rasmus (FD), Evan Gattis (FD), Preston Tucker

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Tyler White

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Philadelphia at St. Louis – 8:15 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Brandon Moss

Stackability – NONE

Washington at Kansas City – 8:15 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Daniel Murphy

Stackability – NONE

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer

Stackability – NONE

Seattle at Oakland – 10:05 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – NONE

Oakland

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jed Lowrie, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – NONE

Colorado at San Diego – 10:10 PM

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Ben Paulsen

Stackability – NONE

San Diego

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Will Myers, Matt Kemp

Stackability – NONE

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author