MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, April 26th
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UPDATE: The Cardinals/Blue Jays game has been postponed for today.
The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
Cincinnati at Milwaukee – 1:40 PM ET
| Cincinnati | Milwaukee | ||||||||||
 | Rookie Davis |  | Wily Peralta | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| MIL-128 | 9.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.549 | 30.0% | 22.2% | 22.2% | 30.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.368 | 32.1% | 8.1% | 13.6% | 43.7% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.195 | 18.2% | 12.5% | 18.8% | 54.5% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.354 | 35.3% | 8.1% | 19.2% | 54.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Rookie Davis | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $4,400 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | 5.42 | 6.43 | 20.6% | 17.7% | 42.9% | 23.8% | 19.1% | |
If you are playing in the early slate, you are going to want to have plenty of exposure to this game. Unfortunately for Davis and Peralta, we aren’t targeting this game for the pitchers. The Brewers are one of the hottest offenses in baseball right now and Davis has really struggled in his first two major league starts. He is listed as a small underdog in a game that features an over/under of 9.5 runs. Davis can be avoided in all league formats.
Quick Breakdown: No thank you.
| Wily Peralta | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,100 | Salary: | $6,800 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 21 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 23 | 4.51 | 4.86 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 50.0% | 33.1% | 16.7% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 5.04 | 4.71 | 14.9% | 10.3% | 41.9% | 37.5% | 18.8% | |
Peralta picked up right where he left off last season. In four starts this season, he has a high strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he is giving up bushels full of hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. The Reds may not be the most potent offense in this slate, but they are aggressive on the base paths and see a nice ballpark boost playing in Miller Park. This is the game to target for offensive production.
Quick Breakdown: If Peralta were a haircut, he’d be a fade.
Batter Grind Down
Cincinnati
From strictly a matchup standpoint, the Reds may have the best matchup in the early slate. They also see a nice ballpark bump in Milwaukee. Wily Peralta struggles with his command and has allowed a .350+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. The usual suspects are all in play here. Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza provide stolen base upside, Joey Votto and Adam Duvall have nice power numbers against righties, and Scott Schebler is a good way to round out the stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Billy Hamilton | SWITCH | 0.303 | 0.076 | 18.4% | 8.8% | 19.0% | 47.5% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,700 | ||
| 2 | Jose Peraza | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.069 | 17.7% | 2.3% | 12.7% | 43.6% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B | $4,300 | ||
| 3 | Joey Votto | LEFT | 0.419 | 0.252 | 41.6% | 17.2% | 15.1% | 37.8% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,100 | ||
| 4 | Adam Duvall | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.255 | 38.0% | 6.0% | 27.5% | 33.9% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,600 | ||
| 5 | Eugenio Suarez | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.160 | 34.9% | 7.8% | 23.3% | 39.1% | 3B | $3,900 | 3B | $4,100 | ||
| 6 | Scott Schebler | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.176 | 32.3% | 7.6% | 22.1% | 52.1% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,200 | ||
| 7 | Zack Cozart | RIGHT | 0.328 | 0.163 | 30.1% | 7.7% | 16.2% | 39.6% | SS | $3,300 | SS | $4,000 | ||
| 8 | Tucker Barnhart | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.122 | 31.6% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 44.4% | C | $2,000 | C | $3,200 | ||
| 9 | Rookie Davis | RIGHT | 0.657 | 0.500 | 100.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | P | $6,200 | P | $4,400 |
Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall
Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, Scott Schebler, Zack Cozart
Stackability – GREEN
Milwaukee
The Brewers are on fire right now and I’m not sure Rookie Davis has what it takes to cool them off. He has not been sharp in his first two major league starts and the Brewers have the highest implied run total in the early slate. Eric Thames has been incredible to start the year. He has already hit 11 home runs, including three in his last two games. Jonathan Villar provides a unique combination of speed and power batting leadoff. We can use the three through seven hitters to round out our Brewers’ stacks.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jonathan Villar | SWITCH | 0.339 | 0.151 | 36.4% | 11.5% | 26.3% | 60.3% | 2B | $3,100 | 2B | $4,800 | ||
| 2 | Eric Thames | LEFT | 0.491 | 0.423 | 52.6% | 14.5% | 22.6% | 47.4% | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $5,000 | ||
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.237 | 34.0% | 7.9% | 19.6% | 55.4% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $5,300 | ||
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.324 | 0.194 | 34.2% | 8.9% | 23.6% | 38.2% | 3B | $3,600 | 3B | $3,900 | ||
| 5 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.311 | 0.171 | 36.8% | 10.5% | 32.6% | 46.6% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 | ||
| 6 | Keon Broxton | RIGHT | 0.295 | 0.154 | 36.7% | 11.8% | 34.8% | 46.8% | OF | $2,700 | OF | $4,200 | ||
| 7 | Jett Bandy | RIGHT | 0.294 | 0.163 | 27.7% | 3.0% | 17.1% | 30.1% | C | $2,800 | C | $2,900 | ||
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.235 | 0.113 | 21.6% | 4.2% | 23.6% | 55.6% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $3,700 | ||
| 9 | Wily Peralta | RIGHT | 0.244 | 0.114 | 29.6% | 0.0% | 27.0% | 30.4% | P | $8,100 | P | $6,800 |
Elite Plays – Jonathan Villar, Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Travis Shaw
Secondary Plays – Manny Pina or Jett Bandy, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton
Stackability – GREEN
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Kansas City at Chicago White Sox – 2:10 PM ET
| Kansas City | Chicago White Sox | ||||||||||
 | Nathan Karns |  | Jose Quintana | ||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CWS-143 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.299 | 28.8% | 14.5% | 27.6% | 35.7% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.287 | 32.5% | 4.9% | 20.6% | 51.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.372 | 31.2% | 8.0% | 19.8% | 48.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.313 | 33.2% | 7.1% | 21.6% | 37.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Nathan Karns | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $8,000 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 15 | 4.23 | 5.15 | 24.2% | 10.8% | 40.3% | 30.6% | 18.7% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.49 | 6.35 | 18.9% | 12.2% | 58.0% | 28.0% | 20.0% | |
If we are targeting the first game for offensive production, then we should be targeting this game for pitching. The Royals and White Sox are two of the worst offensive teams in all of baseball. Karns hasn’t shown anything too promising this season, but he did have a 24.2% strikeout rate a year ago. This play is less about the pitcher and more about the matchup. If you scroll down to the projected lineup of the White Sox, you will see a plethora of red and yellow boxes. They are dreadful against right-handed pitching AND strikeout at a high rate.
Quick Breakdown: Elite GPP play and viable as an SP2 in cash games.
| Jose Quintana | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,500 | Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 4 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 4.01 | 3.20 | 21.6% | 6.0% | 40.4% | 32.7% | 18.6% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 4.69 | 6.17 | 19.4% | 11.7% | 39.1% | 35.7% | 15.7% | |
Quintana seems to be the path of least resistance in the early slate. He hasn’t been in great form to start the season, but a lot of that has to do with the number of walks that he has issued. The Royals are not a team that takes a lot of walks and they have one of the worst offenses in baseball. In fact, they are averaging nearly a half run fewer per game than the next worst offense in baseball. Quintana is pitching at home and is a sizable favorite. The Royals are a perfect get right spot for Quintana.
Quick Breakdown: It’s not saying much, but Quintana is the best option in the early slate.
Batter Grind Down
Kansas City
We only have a three games to choose hitters from in the early slate, but that doesn’t mean that we can’t take a stand on a team or two. Whit Merrifield and Lorenzo Cain have good numbers against left-handed pitching, but there are better plays in the Reds-Brewers game. As long as Jose Quintana can find the strike zone early, he should have no problem making quick work of this struggling offense.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Gordon | LEFT | 0.278 | 0.123 | 33.6% | 9.1% | 28.5% | 45.5% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,800 | ||
| 2 | Mike Moustakas | LEFT | 0.339 | 0.222 | 42.9% | 2.7% | 21.6% | 50.0% | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $3,300 | ||
| 3 | Lorenzo Cain | RIGHT | 0.414 | 0.216 | 31.1% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 38.9% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,000 | ||
| 4 | Eric Hosmer | LEFT | 0.268 | 0.135 | 29.4% | 5.8% | 20.4% | 61.4% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,900 | ||
| 5 | Salvador Perez | RIGHT | 0.312 | 0.206 | 28.6% | 6.3% | 22.2% | 31.0% | C | $3,000 | C | $3,700 | ||
| 6 | Whit Merrifield | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.157 | 50.8% | 7.7% | 20.9% | 47.6% | 2B | $2,300 | 2B/OF | $3,500 | ||
| 7 | Jorge Bonifacio | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 66.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | ||
| 8 | Alcides Escobar | RIGHT | 0.254 | 0.096 | 26.7% | 4.4% | 13.9% | 53.9% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $3,400 | ||
| 9 | Cheslor Cuthbert | RIGHT | 0.343 | 0.156 | 31.5% | 4.9% | 16.9% | 48.6% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $3,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Lorenzo Cain
Stackability – RED
Chicago White Sox
Outside of Jose Abreu and Melky Cabrera, the White Sox don’t have a single projected starter with a .320 wOBA against right-handed pitching. That’s a big problem. Even though they draw a decent matchup against Nathan Karns and even though their offense has shown some promise the last two nights, I won’t be looking for water in this well. Once again, I see this as a better game to target for the pitchers than it is for the offenses.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Anderson | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.144 | 30.1% | 3.0% | 26.8% | 50.6% | SS | $2,900 | SS | $3,700 | ||
| 2 | Tyler Saladino | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.122 | 21.8% | 4.4% | 22.9% | 51.8% | 2B | $3,000 | 2B | $3,500 | ||
| 3 | Melky Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.331 | 0.149 | 28.1% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 43.8% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,000 | ||
| 4 | Jose Abreu | RIGHT | 0.340 | 0.149 | 30.5% | 6.1% | 17.8% | 45.3% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $4,300 | ||
| 5 | Todd Frazier | RIGHT | 0.316 | 0.223 | 31.2% | 9.4% | 23.3% | 38.2% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $4,500 | ||
| 6 | Avisail Garcia | RIGHT | 0.319 | 0.149 | 31.2% | 7.1% | 26.1% | 53.5% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,400 | ||
| 7 | Cody Asche | LEFT | 0.245 | 0.115 | 31.5% | 7.0% | 26.4% | 37.8% | OF | $2,000 | 1B | $2,600 | ||
| 8 | Geovany Soto | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.231 | 44.7% | 9.5% | 27.0% | 33.3% | C | $2,200 | C | $2,500 | ||
| 9 | Leury Garcia | SWITCH | 0.311 | 0.207 | 27.7% | 1.6% | 18.0% | 57.4% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $2,700 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jose Abreu
Stackability – RED
Houston at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET
| Houston | Cleveland | ||||||||||
 | Lance McCullers |  | Trevor Bauer | ||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| HOU-105 | 8.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.324 | 27.3% | 9.4% | 33.0% | 55.9% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.304 | 36.1% | 7.7% | 25.2% | 38.3% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.319 | 22.5% | 12.9% | 27.8% | 58.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.320 | 28.4% | 9.2% | 17.7% | 54.8% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Lance McCullers | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $9,700 | Salary: | $10,300 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 5 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 14 | 3.68 | 3.22 | 30.1% | 12.8% | 57.3% | 25.4% | 19.9% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 2.40 | 3.38 | 30.7% | 5.9% | 57.6% | 22.6% | 27.4% | |
McCullers is by far the most talented pitcher in the early slate, but he also draws the most difficult matchup. The Indians have a high wOBA, a high walk rate, and a low strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. That’s not exactly a great combination. With that said, McCullers still has plenty of strikeout upside. He has shown great command this season and has a 30% strikeout rate. He also induces an elite ground ball rate.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats, but this is far from an ideal matchup.
| Trevor Bauer | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $8,200 | Salary: | |||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 11 of 29 | Salary Rank: | of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 28 | 4.22 | 4.26 | 20.7% | 8.6% | 48.7% | 31.9% | 19.0% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 3.19 | 6.35 | 27.4% | 6.9% | 31.9% | 31.3% | 18.8% | |
Bauer has a high strikeout rate to start the year, but it doesn’t seem sustainable. We haven’t seen an increase in his velocity or in his swinging strike rate. This game is basically set as a pick ‘em and Bauer is pitching at home, but he’s probably my fourth favorite pitcher in the early slate. When there are only three games, that’s not necessarily a good thing. The Astros have plenty of firepower in their lineup and strikeout at a much lower rate than in year’s past.
Quick Breakdown: Nothing against Bauer, I just prefer other options in this slate.
Batter Grind Down
Houston
I prefer the offenses in the Reds-Brewers game, but the Astros are somewhat appealing in tournaments. Over the last two seasons, Trevor Bauer has allowed a 36% hard contact rate to lefties and a .320 wOBA to righties. The top five batters in this lineup are all in play, but are better secondary options at their respective positions.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.175 | 30.8% | 10.9% | 24.3% | 50.0% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $5,200 | ||
| 2 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.367 | 0.167 | 32.7% | 9.0% | 11.6% | 39.1% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,300 | ||
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.395 | 0.189 | 33.0% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 42.6% | 2B | $4,200 | 2B | $5,400 | ||
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.184 | 36.6% | 10.0% | 21.3% | 50.3% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $5,400 | ||
| 5 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.337 | 0.200 | 32.4% | 5.9% | 17.0% | 46.7% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,500 | ||
| 6 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.337 | 0.173 | 38.2% | 11.3% | 18.8% | 33.0% | C | $3,000 | C | $4,100 | ||
| 7 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.187 | 30.8% | 7.6% | 22.3% | 33.6% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B/SS | $4,700 | ||
| 8 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.365 | 0.156 | 27.3% | 4.6% | 9.9% | 47.7% | 3B | $2,800 | 1B | $4,000 | ||
| 9 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.129 | 21.4% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 56.4% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $4,200 |
Elite Plays – Josh Reddick (FD)
Secondary Plays – Josh Reddick (DK), Carlos Beltran, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Brian McCann
Stackability – YELLOW
Cleveland
Even though Lance McCullers isn’t my favorite pitcher in the slate, that doesn’t mean that I want to target hitters against him. He has an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground ball rate. He has also shown much better command this season and limits hard contact to both left and right-handed hitters. The Indians’ are best suited as deep tournament fliers against McCullers.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Santana | SWITCH | 0.383 | 0.272 | 38.5% | 15.4% | 16.1% | 36.6% | 1B | $3,900 | 1B/OF | $4,900 | ||
| 2 | Francisco Lindor | SWITCH | 0.358 | 0.160 | 27.8% | 9.3% | 12.1% | 47.9% | SS | $3,900 | SS | $4,900 | ||
| 3 | Michael Brantley | LEFT | 0.332 | 0.169 | 42.4% | 8.9% | 15.2% | 47.5% | OF | $4,100 | OF | $5,100 | ||
| 4 | Edwin Encarnacion | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.260 | 38.1% | 10.7% | 20.8% | 38.4% | 1B | $3,700 | 1B | $5,000 | ||
| 5 | Jose Ramirez | SWITCH | 0.364 | 0.170 | 25.7% | 7.4% | 9.5% | 38.4% | 3B | $3,900 | 2B/3B | $4,400 | ||
| 6 | Jason Kipnis | LEFT | 0.350 | 0.197 | 38.7% | 10.1% | 19.2% | 36.8% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,800 | ||
| 7 | Lonnie Chisenhall | LEFT | 0.340 | 0.169 | 28.0% | 5.1% | 15.7% | 34.7% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 8 | Abraham Almonte | SWITCH | 0.297 | 0.107 | 33.0% | 7.4% | 21.5% | 45.6% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,700 | ||
| 9 | Yan Gomes | RIGHT | 0.187 | 0.134 | 29.9% | 3.1% | 26.4% | 40.8% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,400 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley
Stackability – ORANGE
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET
| Chicago Cubs | Pittsburgh | ||||||||||
 | Jon Lester |  | Tyler Glasnow | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| CHC-145 | 8.0 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.235 | 30.7% | 4.1% | 25.9% | 53.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.363 | 16.0% | 16.1% | 21.0% | 46.0% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.277 | 26.3% | 7.3% | 24.0% | 45.6% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.361 | 25.0% | 10.2% | 22.7% | 50.0% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Jon Lester | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,500 | Salary: | $11,600 | Salary: | $22,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 32 | 3.61 | 2.44 | 24.8% | 6.5% | 46.9% | 26.8% | 18.9% | |
| 2017 | 4 | 3.69 | 2.66 | 21.7% | 7.2% | 50.7% | 30.9% | 14.7% | |
Lester is in a great spot tonight against the Pirates, who have really struggled against left-handed pitching this season. He has one of the best offenses at his back, a high strikeout rate, and he is facing the Pirates in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Lester may not hold runners well, but the Pirates do not run very often against left-handed pitching. Noah Syndergaard was the top option in the slate, but he has been scratched from tonight’s start. Lester is now an elite play in all formats.
Quick Breakdown: Viable in all formats.
| Tyler Glasnow | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,000 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 28 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 17 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 4 | 4.46 | 4.24 | 22.9% | 12.4% | 47.6% | 27.7% | 21.5% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.68 | 7.94 | 20.3% | 14.1% | 48.8% | 9.8% | 26.8% | |
Glasnow hasn’t been able to throw strikes this season. He has a ton of talent and will likely be in the majors for many years to come, but his command is not where it needs to be. He currently has a 14% walk rate, which has led to a 7.94 ERA. If he struggles again tonight against the Cubs, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pirates sent him back down to the minors to gain some confidence. For our purposes, Glasnow can be avoided.
Quick Breakdown: Easy fade in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Chicago Cubs
The Cubs are one of my favorite under the radar stacks tonight. When looking for a stack, we want teams that get a lot of players on base and teams that can hit home runs. The Cubs are very good at drawing walks and we’ve already covered Tyler Glasnow struggles with his command. Even though this isn’t the best ballpark for offensive production, the Cubs should have plenty of baserunners, so if they can hit a few home runs, we are in business.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Schwarber | LEFT | 0.307 | 0.158 | 42.9% | 11.9% | 32.8% | 44.1% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $4,200 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Kris Bryant | RIGHT | 0.366 | 0.221 | 38.6% | 9.8% | 22.9% | 30.3% | 3B | $4,200 | 3B | $4,700 | IF/OF | $9,200 |
| 3 | Anthony Rizzo | LEFT | 0.399 | 0.263 | 37.6% | 11.7% | 17.1% | 35.4% | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $4,800 | 1B | $9,300 |
| 4 | Ben Zobrist | SWITCH | 0.355 | 0.180 | 32.9% | 16.0% | 11.7% | 46.9% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B/OF | $3,700 | IF/OF | $7,200 |
| 5 | Addison Russell | RIGHT | 0.306 | 0.156 | 27.6% | 7.8% | 21.7% | 41.9% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,600 |
| 6 | Jason Heyward | LEFT | 0.298 | 0.106 | 27.6% | 8.2% | 14.3% | 45.8% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $3,000 | RF | $6,000 |
| 7 | Willson Contreras | RIGHT | 0.349 | 0.200 | 32.4% | 10.2% | 27.8% | 52.4% | C | $3,100 | C | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Jon Lester | LEFT | 0.125 | 0.038 | 22.7% | 6.3% | 23.8% | 66.7% | P | $10,500 | P | $11,600 | P | $22,400 |
| 9 | Javier Baez | RIGHT | 0.297 | 0.150 | 28.8% | 1.4% | 27.4% | 44.5% | 2B | $2,500 | 2B | $3,400 | 3B | $6,600 |
Elite Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Ben Zobrist
Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Jason Heyward
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Pittsburgh
The only time that I roster hitters against Jon Lester is when they can take advantage of his inability to hold runners. However, the Pirates have very little speed in their lineup and they have struggled as a whole against left-handed pitching. Andrew McCutchen would be the one player worth looking at, but he doesn’t have a good track record against Lester in his career.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordy Mercer | RIGHT | 0.335 | 0.175 | 26.5% | 14.1% | 13.4% | 39.6% | SS | $2,200 | SS | $2,900 | SS | $5,600 |
| 2 | Josh Harrison | RIGHT | 0.359 | 0.156 | 37.0% | 1.7% | 15.4% | 36.7% | 2B | $2,900 | 2B/3B | $3,400 | 2B | $6,600 |
| 3 | Andrew McCutchen | RIGHT | 0.337 | 0.200 | 33.0% | 13.3% | 18.0% | 38.8% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,200 | RF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Gregory Polanco | LEFT | 0.327 | 0.202 | 30.0% | 9.1% | 30.3% | 45.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,100 | LF | $8,100 |
| 5 | David Freese | RIGHT | 0.411 | 0.206 | 44.0% | 14.3% | 26.2% | 58.7% | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $5,700 |
| 6 | Francisco Cervelli | RIGHT | 0.350 | 0.015 | 43.6% | 13.8% | 16.3% | 59.3% | C | $2,600 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
| 7 | Jose Osuna | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.333 | 20.0% | 14.3% | 14.3% | 20.0% | 1B | $2,100 | 1B/OF | $2,700 | IF/OF | $5,200 |
| 8 | Josh Bell | SWITCH | 0.213 | 0.083 | 25.8% | 7.5% | 15.0% | 51.6% | 1B | $2,600 | 1B | $3,000 | IF/OF | $6,000 |
| 9 | Tyler Glasnow | RIGHT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | P | $6,000 | P | $6,300 | P | $12,600 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Stackability – RED
Miami at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET
| Miami | Philadelphia | ||||||||||
 | Wei-Yin Chen |  | Vince Velasquez | ||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||
| PHI-102 | 7.5 | ||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.319 | 30.0% | 3.9% | 18.3% | 45.5% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.352 | 33.7% | 10.5% | 26.6% | 36.4% |
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 35.2% | 4.8% | 18.9% | 38.7% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.315 | 31.6% | 7.1% | 28.6% | 35.5% |
Pitcher Grind Down
| Wei-Yin Chen | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $8,400 | Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $14,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 19 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 22 | 4.14 | 4.96 | 19.2% | 4.6% | 40.5% | 35.1% | 15.8% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.49 | 3.94 | 15.4% | 4.6% | 35.4% | 27.5% | 21.6% | |
I wonder if Chen trained with Francisco Liriano in the offseason, because he is starting to resemble him on the mound. I’m not even talking about their pitching profiles, I’m talking about their game logs. Chen’s first three outings have produced the following: 40, 0, and 37 fantasy points (FD scoring). This isn’t a slate like last night where we have to pick a subpar pitcher and hope for the best. There are plenty of good pitching options to choose from, which makes the Chen against the Phillies fade an easy one.
Quick Breakdown: I like the Phillies’ offense more than I like Chen here.
| Vince Velasquez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,800 | Salary: | $8,900 | Salary: | $17,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 7 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | 3.62 | 4.12 | 27.6% | 8.2% | 34.8% | 32.6% | 18.4% | |
| 2017 | 3 | 4.09 | 7.20 | 27.5% | 14.5% | 46.2% | 33.3% | 15.4% | |
The Marlins may not be as bad as the White Sox, but they are an offense that we can pick on regularly when it comes to pitching. Velasquez has had a strikeout rate of at least 27% in each of the last two seasons, which makes up for the walks and runs that he allows. Velasquez has struggled a bit with his command this season, but is an elite strikeout pitcher in a favorable matchup at home. He is also affordable on both FanDuel ($7,800) and DraftKings ($8,900).
Quick Breakdown: Elite GPP play.
Batter Grind Down
Miami
Vince Velasquez splits are pretty straightforward. He allows a higher wOBA (.352), hard contact rate (33.7%), and walk rate (10.5%) to left-handed hitters than he does to right-handed hitters. Dee Gordon and Christian Yelich have two of the highest ground ball rates of any lefties in baseball, but this is actually a decent matchup, as Velasquez is a fly-ball pitcher. If you aren’t playing Velasquez, you may want to give a look at Gordon and Yelich as one-off targets.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.294 | 0.074 | 19.4% | 5.2% | 16.4% | 57.2% | 2B | $3,300 | 2B | $4,300 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 2 | Martin Prado | RIGHT | 0.304 | 0.106 | 25.9% | 5.9% | 11.0% | 49.4% | 3B | $2,800 | 2B/3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,900 |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.382 | 0.215 | 42.0% | 12.3% | 20.3% | 54.8% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,700 |
| 4 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.235 | 39.3% | 9.3% | 29.9% | 38.5% | OF | $4,300 | OF | $4,700 | RF | $9,200 |
| 5 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.326 | 0.176 | 36.7% | 7.2% | 20.0% | 46.4% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 6 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.352 | 0.123 | 30.8% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 50.9% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
| 7 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.343 | 0.224 | 36.1% | 12.4% | 17.1% | 43.6% | 1B | $3,100 | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 8 | Adeiny Hechavarria | RIGHT | 0.252 | 0.067 | 29.4% | 5.1% | 12.0% | 48.6% | SS | $2,000 | SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,200 |
| 9 | Wei-Yin Chen | LEFT | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 35.0% | 78.9% | P | $8,400 | P | $7,100 | P | $14,100 |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich
Stackability – ORANGE
Philadelphia
The Phillies are a sneaky offense to target tonight. Wei-Yin Chen has really struggled against right-handed hitters, allowing a .332 wOBA, a 35.2% hard contact rate, and 23 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, and Cameron Rupp are all on my radar tonight and make for a very interesting low-owned tournament stack.
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cesar Hernandez | SWITCH | 0.351 | 0.089 | 23.6% | 7.6% | 20.5% | 58.6% | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $3,500 | 2B | $6,800 |
| 2 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.176 | 32.4% | 8.8% | 24.6% | 51.4% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,600 | RF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.284 | 0.057 | 20.3% | 10.7% | 22.5% | 61.7% | OF | $3,600 | OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,000 |
| 4 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.339 | 0.217 | 36.4% | 5.8% | 16.8% | 45.8% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,000 |
| 5 | Tommy Joseph | RIGHT | 0.353 | 0.250 | 31.7% | 9.7% | 20.4% | 34.2% | 1B | $2,500 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 6 | Michael Saunders | LEFT | 0.393 | 0.292 | 31.3% | 7.5% | 27.6% | 49.4% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,700 | RF | $7,200 |
| 7 | Cameron Rupp | RIGHT | 0.388 | 0.286 | 39.6% | 6.1% | 29.3% | 49.1% | C | $2,400 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 8 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.229 | 0.106 | 24.8% | 1.2% | 18.7% | 39.1% | SS | $2,700 | SS | $3,500 | SS | $6,900 |
| 9 | Vince Velasquez | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.111 | 40.0% | 0.0% | 44.4% | 60.0% | P | $7,800 | P | $8,900 | P | $17,200 |