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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 31st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-01 01:42:47

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
Article Image Chris Sale Article Image Justin Verlander
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET -125 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.263 4 20.9% 32.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.274 19 24.4% 24.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.280 38 28.5% 28.5% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.277 17 27.5% 23.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $12,100
FPPG: 42.6 FPPG: 22.9
Pitcher Rating: 82.5 Pitcher Rank: 3
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 114.6 2.90 3.03 30.9% 4.0% 12.2% 30.8% 44.0% 29.5%
2016 25 108.0 3.52 3.14 25.5% 5.4% 10.9% 39.6% 38.1% 29.8%
2015 31 107.2 2.52 3.41 32.1% 4.9% 14.6% 42.6% 35.3% 25.1%

Home:—ERA: 3.44 — K%: 28.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292
Away:—ERA: 3.14 — K%: 29.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.264

Sale has arguably had his best five-game stretch of the season, posting a 2.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30.9% over the last month of play. The Tigers don’t represent a great matchup on paper, but Sale has had some success against this lineup in the past. Other than Victor Martinez, the Tigers have struggled as a whole in this matchup. Sale isn’t my favorite pitching option in the early slate, but he has as much upside as anyone.

Justin Verlander
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $10,800
FPPG: 39.9 FPPG: 22.1
Pitcher Rating: 86.1 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 110.2 3.43 2.32 28.0% 4.4% 12.1% 26.9% 53.7% 34.9%
2016 27 107.4 3.64 3.33 26.2% 6.4% 11.7% 34.4% 46.6% 28.3%
2015 20 107.5 3.95 3.37 21.1% 6.0% 10.0% 34.6% 45.5% 23.0%

Home:—ERA: 3.54 — K%: 25.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.275
Away:—ERA: 3.10 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.276

Verlander has been dominant in his last six starts, posting a 2.32 ERA (3.43 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 28% and a walk rate of 4.4%. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher, but you can get away with it when you have a high strikeout rate and limit the hard contact. I slightly prefer Verlander over Chris Sale in this matchup, solely based on the fact that the White Sox don’t have nearly as talented of a lineup. On the season, Chicago is ranked 24th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox come into today’s game with the third lowest run projection in the entire all-day slate. They have struggled to score runs all season and draw one of the most difficult matchups on the board. In the last two seasons, Justin Verlander has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.355 0.168 29.7% 0.307 OF $3,000 OF $2,900
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.302 0.150 32.9% 0.399 SS $2,600 SS $3,300
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.323 0.132 28.0% 0.308 OF $3,000 OF $2,800
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.368 0.208 32.7% 0.435 1B $3,400 1B $3,800
5 Justin Morneau LEFT 0.340 0.175 35.9% 0.293 1B $2,700 1B $2,600
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.325 0.215 34.3% 0.273 3B $3,300 3B $2,900
7 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.293 0.117 30.1% 0.389 OF $2,700 OF $2,800
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.315 0.117 33.7% 0.534 C $2,300 C $2,500
9 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.275 0.123 20.7% 0.376 SS $2,900 2B/SS $3,000
Team Averages — 0.322 0.156 30.9% 0.368 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

Detroit

The Tigers are ranked above the major league average in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching this season. Unfortunately, they are facing one of the best southpaws in baseball. Chris Sale has an elite strikeout rate and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA. Victor Martinez is the only hitter that stands out here, as he does boast an 18-for-38 record against Sale with seven extra-base hits in his career.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.363 0.191 32.4% 0.208 2B $3,500 2B $3,100
2 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.344 0.134 21.4% 0.235 SS $2,200 SS $2,000
3 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.359 0.146 31.7% 0.370 C $3,300 1B $3,000
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.394 0.275 48.7% 0.423 OF $3,400 OF $3,900
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.269 0.142 35.8% 0.477 OF $2,900 OF $3,700
6 James McCann RIGHT 0.376 0.266 39.0% 0.366 C $2,700 C $2,600
7 JaCoby Jones RIGHT
8 Jarrod Saltalamacchia SWITCH 0.334 0.222 28.6% 0.290 C $2,500 C $2,700
9 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.267 0.067 6.8% 0.279 SS $2,400 OF/SS $2,200
Team Averages — 0.338 0.180 30.6% 0.331 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Tampa Bay Boston
Article Image Drew Smyly Article Image Steven Wright
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS -175 9.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.288 6 31.1% 34.8% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.273 9 23.4% 18.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.319 32 30.0% 22.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.307 13 35.0% 18.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Drew Smyly
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $6,700
FPPG: 29.2 FPPG: 15.5
Pitcher Rating: 62.4 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 94.8 4.10 3.03 25.2% 6.8% 11.3% 25.0% 57.0% 24.0%
2016 25 97.1 3.99 4.80 23.9% 6.4% 10.9% 30.7% 49.3% 29.6%
2015 12 94.7 3.25 3.10 28.0% 7.3% 11.4% 36.8% 44.3% 31.6%

Home:—ERA: 4.09 — K%: 28.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.286
Away:—ERA: 4.45 — K%: 22.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.335

Smyly is having a solid season overall, posting a 3.99 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23.9%. We can throw all of that out the window today, as he draws one of the worst matchups in all of baseball. The Red Sox have been an offensive juggernaut at home this season. Smyly comes into the game as a sizable underdog with the over/under set at 9.5 runs. He is an easy fade in all league formats.

Steven Wright
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $9,400
FPPG: 34.3 FPPG: 18.0
Pitcher Rating: 60.8 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 104.3 4.76 3.60 18.3% 7.3% 9.9% 33.9% 49.2% 27.9%
2016 23 104.9 4.51 3.18 19.5% 8.5% 10.7% 44.4% 36.5% 27.8%
2015 9 130.9 4.60 4.09 16.8% 8.7% 9.3% 43.2% 43.2% 33.9%

Home:—ERA: 4.14 — K%: 17.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303
Away:—ERA: 2.90 — K%: 19.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.282

Wright was hit hard in his first start back from the DL, but he still owns a 3.18 ERA on the season with a strikeout rate just under 20%. He draws one of the top strikeout matchups in baseball, as the Rays have the third highest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. Wright is a large favorite, but his price seems a bit high given his recent form. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Mike Fiers in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays have quietly hit right-handed pitching hard this season, ranking third in team ISO. They see a favorable ballpark shift today in Fenway Park and they come into the game with a mediocre run projection. Steven Wright hasn’t allowed a high wOBA to hitters from either side of the plate, but his numbers do suggest some serious regression.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.328 0.136 31.0% 0.302 2B $3,600 2B $3,900
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.318 0.176 27.9% 0.187 OF $3,600 OF $2,900
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.338 0.204 34.0% 0.376 3B $3,400 3B $4,100
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.354 0.233 35.1% 0.331 SS $3,300 1B/SS $3,700
5 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.306 0.204 36.9% 0.651 2B $3,100 2B/OF $3,700
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.316 0.180 35.0% 0.277 1B $2,700 1B $3,100
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.292 0.200 38.2% 0.367 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,100
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.347 0.267 35.0% 0.450 OF $2,800 OF $4,000
9 Bobby Wilson RIGHT 0.251 0.090 22.6% 0.347 C $2,400 C $2,600
Team Averages — 0.317 0.188 32.9% 0.365 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are ranked ninth or better in every single offensive statistic listed below. They have been scoring runs in bunches all season at Fenway and they draw an exploitable matchup against Drew Smyly, who hasn’t been nearly as sharp on the road as he has at home. In the last two years combined, Smyly has allowed a .319 wOBA and 32 home runs to right-handed hitters.

Confirmed Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.354 0.149 29.5% 0.421 2B $3,400 2B $4,600
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.383 0.123 31.8% 0.311 SS $3,600 SS $4,800
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.332 0.187 41.3% 0.474 1B $4,200 1B $4,900
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.359 0.218 33.3% 0.438 OF $4,400 OF $5,000
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.375 0.255 33.7% 0.359 1B $3,500 1B $4,600
6 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.338 0.184 22.1% 0.319 C $2,600 C $3,300
7 Chris Young RIGHT 0.420 0.261 34.7% 0.399 P $5,500 P $4,000
8 Aaron Hill RIGHT 0.291 0.092 30.4% 0.134 3B $2,700 2B/3B $2,700
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.334 0.159 29.9% 0.245 OF $3,500 OF $3,300
Team Averages — 0.354 0.181 31.9% 0.344 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Seattle at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Seattle Texas
Article Image Felix Hernandez Article Image Martin Perez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SEA -115 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.306 16 26.0% 18.6% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.245 2 17.5% 20.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.294 20 26.2% 25.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.340 16 30.4% 10.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Felix Hernandez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $8,600
FPPG: 35.6 FPPG: 18.2
Pitcher Rating: 68.4 Pitcher Rank: 9
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 106.8 4.04 2.57 25.6% 11.3% 13.0% 53.4% 29.1% 27.2%
2016 18 102.1 4.34 3.14 20.5% 9.7% 9.8% 53.0% 28.4% 27.3%
2015 31 98.1 3.38 3.53 23.1% 7.0% 10.7% 56.2% 26.9% 25.4%

Home:—ERA: 3.09 — K%: 22.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.274
Away:—ERA: 3.78 — K%: 21.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Hernandez seems to be trending in the right direction. In his last six starts, he has a 2.57 ERA with a strikeout rate of 25.6%. The main concern with Hernandez has been his command. He is walking close to 10% of batters this season. The good news is that his swinging strike rate is up over the last month of play; the bad news is that he has to face the Rangers in Arlington. On the season, Texas is ranked 12th in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Martin Perez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 22.0 FPPG: 9.8
Pitcher Rating: 40.2 Pitcher Rank: 25
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 95.0 4.49 4.70 15.7% 7.6% 11.1% 54.2% 26.3% 26.5%
2016 27 94.6 5.19 4.45 11.9% 9.1% 7.7% 53.0% 26.5% 30.9%
2015 14 86.8 4.06 4.46 14.2% 7.1% 7.5% 59.9% 22.1% 22.7%

Home:—ERA: 3.19 — K%: 13.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.297
Away:—ERA: 5.73 — K%: 11.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.345

Perez is always an easy pitcher to fade in daily fantasy. He has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any pitcher in baseball. In 27 starts this season, he has a 5.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 11.9%. He is a small underdog today against the Mariners in a game that features an over/under of 9.0 runs. There is more risk than potential reward with Perez, even though the Mariners have struggled against southpaws this season.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners aren’t the most potent offense against left-handed pitching this season, but they draw an elite matchup against Martin Perez. In the last two seasons, Perez has allowed a .340 wOBA, 16 home runs, and a hard contact rate of 30.4% to right-handed hitters. The only downside here is that Perez also sports an elite ground ball rate, which can limit an opposing offense’s upside.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Shawn O’Malley SWITCH 0.312 0.108 16.0% 0.219 OF $2,300 OF/SS $3,400
2 Franklin Gutierrez RIGHT 0.382 0.262 46.1% 0.237 OF $3,200 OF $4,000
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.313 0.150 28.2% 0.432 2B $3,700 2B $4,900
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.431 0.318 42.6% 0.274 OF $3,900 OF $5,000
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.335 0.207 32.0% 0.402 3B $3,200 3B $4,700
6 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.266 0.113 31.3% 0.294 C $2,400 C $3,600
7 Dae-ho Lee RIGHT 0.311 0.195 28.0% 0.157 1B $2,400 1B $3,200
8 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.290 0.121 27.7% 0.320 OF $3,000 OF $4,200
9 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.274 0.109 26.3% 0.275 SS $2,700 SS $3,400
Team Averages — 0.324 0.176 30.9% 0.290 — — — —

Elite Plays – Franklin Gutierrez, Nelson Cruz

Secondary Plays – Shawn O’Malley, Mike Zunino, Dae-Ho Lee

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Texas

The Rangers finally broke out of their slump last night, scoring eight runs against James Paxton and the Mariners. They draw a tougher matchup today against Felix Hernandez, who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 wOBA in the last two seasons. While the matchup isn’t ideal, the Rangers have a slightly above-average run projection and they are playing at home in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.351 0.175 30.3% 0.298 OF $3,200 OF $3,500
2 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.306 0.157 29.6% 0.310 OF $4,000 OF $3,600
3 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.341 0.198 32.8% 0.227 OF $3,700 OF $3,000
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.320 0.157 33.2% 0.384 3B $3,300 3B $3,800
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.336 0.221 31.8% 0.236 2B $3,300 2B $3,600
6 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.348 0.171 33.6% 0.368 C $3,400 C $4,100
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.357 0.232 36.4% 0.304 1B $2,800 1B $3,300
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.298 0.146 29.1% 0.106 OF $3,000 OF $2,200
9 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.289 0.087 24.8% 0.354 SS $2,900 SS $3,200
Team Averages — 0.327 0.172 31.3% 0.287 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Nomar Mazara, Carlos Beltran, Adrian Beltre, Rougned Odor

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland at Houston – 2:10 PM ET

Oakland Houston
Article Image Ross Detwiler Article Image Mike Fiers
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU -215 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.298 1 21.2% 17.2% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.300 19 33.9% 21.1%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.443 13 31.9% 12.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.338 28 35.4% 21.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Detwiler
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $4,600
FPPG: 8.1 FPPG: 3.3
Pitcher Rating: 26.8 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 92.8 4.87 5.73 13.1% 6.1% 7.0% 45.6% 30.4% 27.9%
2016 4 92.8 5.05 5.74 13.3% 8.3% 6.3% 47.3% 31.2% 29.0%
2015 7 97.0 5.28 7.25 14.2% 12.5% 7.2% 44.3% 33.3% 28.8%

Home:—ERA: 4.91 — K%: 12.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.371
Away:—ERA: 8.46 — K%: 14.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.423

Detwiler is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball. In the last two seasons, he has an ERA over 6.00 with a strikeout rate under 14%. He doesn’t provide enough upside to overcome the mistakes that he is likely going to make against an Astros’ offense that is ranked tenth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season. Detwiler should be avoided in all league formats.

Mike Fiers
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,000
FPPG: 25.8 FPPG: 12.6
Pitcher Rating: 79.6 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 94.7 3.54 3.57 25.3% 5.5% 9.7% 39.6% 37.5% 34.0%
2016 24 93.2 4.29 4.40 18.2% 5.4% 8.8% 40.7% 33.0% 36.2%
2015 30 101.4 3.84 3.69 23.7% 8.4% 9.8% 37.6% 42.1% 33.5%

Home:—ERA: 3.48 — K%: 22.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302
Away:—ERA: 4.56 — K%: 20.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.340

Fiers has pitched well in his last six starts, posting a 3.54 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25.3% and a walk rate of 5.5%. He has good splits at home and he draws a favorable matchup against the A’s, who are ranked 26th in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Fiers is a large favorite in this matchup and he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Dollar for dollar, he is my favorite pitching option in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Oakland

The A’s have struggled against right-handed pitching this season and they come into today’s game with the second lowest run projection of the 30 teams in action. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Mike Fiers, who has pitched well over the last month of play. Khris Davis is worth a look in all league formats. He has been red-hot at the plate and Fiers does have reverse splits.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.289 0.151 29.7% 0.281 SS $3,000 SS $3,000
2 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.348 0.202 33.5% 0.411 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,800
3 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.338 0.188 28.8% 0.233 C $2,600 C $3,100
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.354 0.273 37.6% 0.467 OF $3,000 OF $4,700
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.358 0.194 30.0% 0.377 3B $2,800 3B $2,800
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.320 0.118 33.4% 0.248 1B $2,600 1B $2,700
7 Jake Smolinski RIGHT 0.243 0.096 26.2% 0.308 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
8 Brett Eibner RIGHT 0.264 0.180 20.9% 0.223 OF $2,000 OF $3,300
9 Max Muncy LEFT 0.279 0.141 34.9% 0.233 OF $2,200 2B/OF $2,600
Team Averages — 0.310 0.171 30.6% 0.309 — — — —

Elite Plays – Khris Davis

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy

Stackability – ORANGE

Houston

I can’t count how many times I’ve said during the season that the Astros should be better against left-handed pitching. Well, guess what? They finally are a good offense against southpaws, ranking tenth in team wOBA and fourth in team ISO. They draw a terrific matchup against Ross Detwiler, who has allowed a .443 wOBA and 13 home runs to right-handed hitters in the last two years.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.415 0.268 41.9% 0.356 OF $4,000 OF $5,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.382 0.265 33.3% 0.454 3B $3,500 3B $4,700
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.424 0.193 30.6% 0.344 2B $4,100 2B $5,000
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.354 0.215 38.3% 0.286 SS $4,100 SS $4,400
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.324 0.225 32.4% 0.476 C $3,300 C $5,000
6 Yulieski Gurriel RIGHT 0.248 0.200 75.0% 0.412 3B $3,000 3B $2,800
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.340 0.199 33.3% 0.252 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,600
8 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.305 0.250 62.5% 0.329 OF $2,900 OF $2,800
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.286 0.205 26.1% 0.294 OF $2,600 OF $2,700
Team Averages — 0.342 0.224 41.5% 0.356 — — — —

Elite Plays – George Springer, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Secondary Plays – Yulieski Gurriel

Stackability – GREEN

LA Dodgers at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

LA Dodgers Colorado
Article Image Ross Stripling Article Image Tyler Anderson
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL -120 11.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.256 2 28.3% 19.7% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.257 0 21.3% 17.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.335 5 38.0% 14.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.321 10 30.0% 24.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ross Stripling
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $4,200
FPPG: 20.3 FPPG: 10.3
Pitcher Rating: 32.3 Pitcher Rank: 28
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 100.5 4.29 4.21 14.8% 4.6% 6.5% 52.9% 31.0% 33.3%
2016 12 103.3 4.40 4.13 17.0% 7.4% 7.3% 50.8% 29.2% 33.7%

Home:—ERA: 4.84 — K%: 15.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.333
Away:—ERA: 3.13 — K%: 19.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.249

Stripling is having a mediocre season thus far. In 12 starts, he has a 4.40 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. He doesn’t generate many swings and misses and he has to pitch in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in all of baseball. He should be avoided against the Rockies in a game that has the highest over/under in the entire slate.

Tyler Anderson
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $7,100
FPPG: 28.4 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 56.2 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 88.6 3.67 4.34 27.0% 8.7% 13.8% 47.9% 36.6% 27.4%
2016 14 93.4 3.59 3.69 22.6% 5.9% 11.2% 53.6% 27.7% 27.8%

Home:—ERA: 3.45 — K%: 22.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.315
Away:—ERA: 4.21 — K%: 22.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281

Anderson has all of the tools needed to pitch well in Coors Field. He has an above-average strikeout rate, a high ground ball rate, and he limits the hard contact against him. While I have a hard time trusting any pitcher in Coors, I’m at least intrigued by Anderson’s suppressed salary. I see him as a viable GPP play against the Dodgers, who are ranked 30th in team wOBA and 28th in team ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

The Dodgers come into today’s game with the second highest run projection in the slate. Even though I see Tyler Anderson as a viable GPP play, I will still be targeting a number of Dodgers’ hitters. They see a massive ballpark shift playing in Coors Field. All of the right-handed hitters (plus Corey Seager) are in play here.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Chase Utley LEFT 0.243 0.110 23.3% 0.356 2B $3,400 2B $5,000
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.360 0.198 42.9% 0.483 SS $4,300 SS $5,500
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.304 0.160 35.5% 0.328 3B $4,100 3B $5,100
4 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.316 0.111 29.6% 0.396 1B $3,900 1B $5,200
5 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.356 0.106 33.3% 0.330 C $3,200 C $4,500
6 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.247 0.086 27.4% 0.149 OF $3,800 OF $4,300
7 Joc Pederson LEFT 0.263 0.154 27.3% 0.215 OF $3,300 OF $4,700
8 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.308 0.087 31.6% 0.306 2B $3,400 2B/OF $4,000
9 Ross Stripling RIGHT 0.000 0.000 0.0% 0.000 P $6,200 P $4,200
Team Averages — 0.266 0.112 27.9% 0.285 — — — —

Elite Plays – Justin Turner

Secondary Plays – Corey Seager, Yasmani Grandal, Kike Hernandez, Rob Segedin

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado

The Rockies are small favorites today against the Dodgers and they come into the game with the highest implied team total in the slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Ross Stripling, who has a low strikeout rate and a hard contact rate of 33.7% this season. The sample size is small, but Stripling has had reverse splits in his first 12 major league starts.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.372 0.214 36.0% 0.369 OF $4,200 OF $5,400
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.352 0.119 29.9% 0.493 2B $4,000 2B $5,000
3 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.404 0.284 35.5% 0.188 OF $3,800 OF $5,000
4 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.386 0.303 36.3% 0.500 3B $4,400 3B $5,300
5 David Dahl LEFT 0.394 0.235 36.2% 0.368 OF $3,900 OF $5,000
6 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.321 0.162 32.1% 0.295 OF $3,300 OF $3,700
7 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.331 0.167 30.4% 0.407 C $3,200 C $4,500
8 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.304 0.127 24.8% 0.269 SS $3,100 1B/SS $3,800
9 Jeff Hoffman RIGHT 0.000 P $5,500 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.358 0.201 32.7% 0.321 — — — —

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, David Dahl, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious