MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-05-16 15:59:25

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati			NY Mets
	Robert Stephenson				Jacob deGrom
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	TBD
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.281	0.274	26.3%	0.63	29.5%	42.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.208	0.252	32.6%	0.36	30.7%	47.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Robert Stephenson
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:				Salary:			$6,300	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			of 27	Salary Rank:			18 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	11	4.99	4.68	22.5%	13.8%	37.5%	38.4%	12.8%	93.7	12.6%

On tap for Wednesday, we have a four-game early slate and a nine-game main slate. While this game isn’t included in either, we’ll cover it quickly for those of you playing the all-day or showdown slates. Stephenson is making his first start of the season, after exclusively spending his year at the Triple-A level. In 20 minor league starts, he posted a 3.85 FIP with a strikeout rate of 29%. Overall, he’s the team’s seventh ranked prospect, so he certainly has some upside. He draws a favorable matchup against the Mets in a pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options in the all-day slate, but Stephenson is viable in the single-game showdown contests.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,700	Salary:			$12,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			1 of 27	Salary Rank:			1 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.44	3.53	28.9%	7.1%	45.3%	31.9%	21.3%	95.2	13.3%
	2018	22	3.00	1.85	30.1%	5.7%	45.1%	29.4%	25.0%	95.6	15.1%
	L14	3	3.22	2.74	26.7%	3.3%	37.7%	28.6%	33.3%	96.3	13.0%

DeGrom gets no love from his offense. Despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball, he has more losses than wins on his resume this season. It goes to show how pointless wins and losses are for a pitcher. In his 22 starts, he owns a 3.00 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. My Jason Vargas GPP flier didn’t work out yesterday, but I feel much better about deGrom’s prospects in this matchup. The Reds’ lineup is no longer intimidating, especially when you get them outside of the Great American Ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: DeGrom is an elite play in the all-day and showdown slates.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

It’s always hard to create leverage on the field in single-game slates. You can target the hitters at the bottom of the order or load up on the hitters that are going up against the heavily owned pitcher. In this situation, I’d rather target the bottom of the Mets’ lineup instead of the Reds. Jacob deGrom has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.300	0.109	31.6%	6.2%	12.5%	36.9%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,300	N/A	N/A
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.455	0.159	38.7%	19.3%	13.0%	34.4%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.351	0.192	38.7%	8.0%	17.5%	38.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.382	0.261	51.0%	8.9%	23.2%	35.1%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Mason Williams	LEFT	0.313	0.167	53.3%	0.0%	25.0%	69.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
6	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.340	0.111	40.5%	10.7%	16.6%	41.7%	C	$2,000	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.294	0.189	41.3%	5.8%	26.7%	48.1%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	N/A	N/A
8	Robert Stephenson	RIGHT									P	$6,300	N/A	N/A
9	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.250	0.069	20.3%	10.1%	24.1%	44.6%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.336	0.157	39.4%	8.6%	19.8%	43.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Mets

Robert Stephenson is a talented young pitcher, but he has yet to prove himself at the major league level. In 11 starts last season, he posted a 4.99 SIERA while allowing a .361 wOBA to lefties and a .351 wOBA to righties. The Mets aren’t an offense that I’m usually itching to target in DFS, but they are certainly viable options in the single-game showdown slates. Amed Rosario and Jeff McNeil provide much needed salary cap relief, while Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Nimmo all boast an xwOBA of at least .345 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.276	0.117	26.5%	5.2%	19.1%	50.8%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jeff McNeil	LEFT	0.317	0.158	20.0%	12.0%	20.0%	38.5%	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Wilmer Flores	RIGHT	0.318	0.234	37.4%	7.5%	9.1%	35.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.349	0.164	36.8%	16.8%	22.0%	36.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Todd Frazier	RIGHT	0.355	0.178	45.5%	10.0%	22.0%	35.8%	3B	$2,700	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.365	0.244	35.9%	13.3%	27.3%	34.7%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
7	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.255	0.113	30.4%	9.0%	39.3%	43.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
8	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.315	0.174	32.0%	6.0%	18.5%	32.0%	C	$2,600	C	$3,600	N/A	N/A
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.202	0.036	0.0%	3.3%	26.7%	41.2%	P	$11,700	P	$12,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.306	0.158	29.4%	9.2%	22.7%	38.8%

Elite Plays – Amed Rosario, Michael Conforto, Todd Frazier

Secondary Plays – Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Seattle								Texas
			Marco Gonzales							Yovani Gallardo
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SEA-140							11.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.325	40.7%	0.95	17.1%	45.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.341	0.383	33.3%	1.52	15.1%	47.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.318	32.8%	0.95	22.8%	46.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.383	0.348	36.6%	1.16	13.5%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Marco Gonzales
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,100	Salary:			$8,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			6 of 27	Salary Rank:			7 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	8	4.48	6.08	17.3%	6.0%	45.4%	29.1%	23.4%	91.5	9.1%
	2018	22	3.66	3.46	22.0%	4.7%	46.2%	34.0%	16.2%	90.3	9.4%
	L14	3	3.23	3.72	25.6%	3.9%	47.3%	27.3%	16.4%	89.8	12.1%

Gonzales has quietly had a very nice season for the Mariners, posting a 3.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a walk rate of 5%. He doesn’t really have a weakness in his game other than the fact that he doesn’t generate a lot of soft contact. While he’s a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward, he’s a fairly easy fade on the road against the Rangers. It’s expected to be in the low to mid-90s in this game and we all know how well the ball carries in this ballpark. While Gonzales is favored, the total for the game is set at a whopping 11.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: The risk seems to outweigh the reward for Gonzales in this spot.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Yovani Gallardo
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:			$4,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			19 of 27	Salary Rank:			26 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	22	5.27	5.72	16.3%	10.4%	44.1%	32.9%	19.4%	92.2	8.3%
	2018	8	5.37	6.51	14.3%	11.0%	46.2%	35.0%	15.9%	91.5	5.7%
	L14	3	5.88	2.70	14.1%	14.1%	46.0%	31.4%	13.7%	91.5	5.5%

Gallardo has been an easy fade for the last couple of seasons. This year is no exception, as he currently owns a 5.37 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 11%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and will be playing in some of the best hitting conditions on the schedule today. To make matters worse, he is facing a high-contact Mariners’ offense that has plenty of firepower against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Gallardo in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are the best stack of the early slate and arguably of any team on the entire schedule. They are playing in perfect hitting conditions and they are facing one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high walk rate, Yovani Gallardo has allowed a .383 xwOBA to lefties and a .348 xwOBA to righties this season. Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Denard Span, and Kyle Seager are all elite plays at their respective positions. Ryon Healy and Mike Zunino are solid tournament plays and a nice way to differentiate your Mariners’ stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.268	0.063	19.0%	2.0%	15.0%	56.7%	2B	$2,800	2B/OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
2	Jean Segura	RIGHT	0.326	0.123	29.8%	4.1%	12.8%	54.6%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,500	N/A	N/A
3	Denard Span	LEFT	0.362	0.170	31.8%	11.5%	13.7%	36.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Nelson Cruz	RIGHT	0.413	0.255	38.1%	7.2%	19.5%	44.3%	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,200	N/A	N/A
5	Mitch Haniger	RIGHT	0.393	0.217	36.0%	11.8%	22.7%	41.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	Kyle Seager	LEFT	0.325	0.188	39.2%	6.6%	20.3%	34.9%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
7	Ryon Healy	RIGHT	0.352	0.214	36.2%	2.8%	22.1%	41.2%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
8	Mike Zunino	RIGHT	0.328	0.222	37.4%	4.0%	36.4%	40.4%	C	$2,300	C	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.328	0.106	36.8%	13.0%	21.5%	46.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,300	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.344	0.173	33.8%	7.0%	20.4%	44.1%

Elite Plays – Dee Gordon, Jean Segura, Nelson Cruz, Mitch Haniger, Denard Span, Kyle Seager

Secondary Plays – Ryon Healy, Mike Zunino

Stackability – GREEN

Texas

The Rangers don’t have a great matchup on paper, but I treat Arlington in the heat the same way that I treat Coors Field. Pitchers are almost an auto-fade and the offenses get a boost regardless of the matchup. I’m banking on a talented offense in good hitting conditions over a fairly difficult matchup against Marco Gonzales. Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos, and Joey Gallo all boast an xwOBA of at least .330 against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.351	0.121	39.0%	11.8%	25.0%	47.6%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
2	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.284	0.143	41.3%	9.0%	23.0%	45.5%	2B	$4,100	2B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.346	0.167	35.3%	6.9%	5.2%	49.0%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adrian Beltre	RIGHT	0.352	0.066	48.3%	8.1%	20.9%	43.3%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.344	0.208	31.8%	11.8%	10.0%	38.8%	3B	$3,700	3B/SS	$4,700	N/A	N/A
6	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.352	0.267	50.0%	15.1%	34.2%	36.1%	C	$3,100	C	$4,500	N/A	N/A
7	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.332	0.337	42.6%	8.8%	41.6%	25.9%	OF	$3,700	1B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Willie Calhoun	LEFT	0.240	0.000	12.5%	0.0%	33.3%	25.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
9	Carlos Tocci	RIGHT	0.199	0.000	7.7%	5.3%	26.3%	54.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.311	0.145	34.3%	8.5%	24.4%	40.6%

Elite Plays – Adrian Beltre, Jurickson Profar, Robinson Chirinos (DK)

Secondary Plays – Robinson Chirinos (FD), Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Colorado
			Chris Archer							German Marquez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			COL-120							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.359	0.352	40.5%	1.35	21.4%	43.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.323	33.2%	1.75	18.0%	43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.317	0.335	39.6%	0.90	27.0%	45.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.274	35.2%	1.18	31.7%	54.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,300	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			13 of 27	Salary Rank:			17 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%	95.5	13.4%
	2018	18	3.83	4.49	24.7%	8.0%	44.4%	40.0%	16.2%	94.6	13.7%
	L14	3	3.40	5.51	27.9%	7.6%	47.9%	32.7%	12.2%	94.9	17.0%

We go from one elite hitting environment in Texas to another in Colorado. Archer didn’t get off to the best start with his new team, as he struggled against the Cardinals in Pittsburgh. Odds are that he’ll struggle once again, as he has to take on the Rockies in Coors Field. Their offense has been quiet so far in this series, but you can’t hold the Rockies down for long in this ballpark. Archer’s high hard contact rates worry me in this ballpark, so I will be fading him in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Most pitchers are easy fades in Coors. Add Archer to that list.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
German Marquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			15 of 27	Salary Rank:			14 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	29	4.27	4.39	21.0%	7.0%	45.2%	34.5%	17.7%	95.0	9.1%
	2018	22	3.83	4.70	24.3%	8.1%	48.0%	34.0%	18.7%	95.1	10.5%
	L14	2	2.79	2.45	31.5%	5.6%	50.0%	35.3%	8.8%	94.6	12.6%

Marquez showed up in his last start against the Brewers. I really wish I would have taken the plunge after recommending him as a tournament play, but I ultimately went with a different option. He’s been terrific on the road all season, but like most pitchers, has struggled in Coors Field. He now has to face a high-contact Pirates’ offense that is very good against right-handed pitching. Let’s wait for his next road start to fire up Marquez.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Marquez in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are certainly enjoying their stay in Denver, as their offense has had no problem scoring runs in this series. German Marquez is a better pitcher than most people give him credit for, but even he can’t escape the wrath of Coors FIeld. His struggles at home are well documented. From a splits perspective, give an edge to the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Marquez has allowed a .323 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate. Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, and Colin Moran are the top three targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.368	0.222	37.1%	3.8%	11.0%	34.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.343	0.199	34.1%	5.3%	18.4%	45.7%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.385	0.280	37.6%	12.2%	21.8%	33.5%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,300	N/A	N/A
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.395	0.216	35.9%	12.9%	18.9%	37.0%	C	$3,300	C	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.357	0.142	32.6%	8.4%	16.4%	41.7%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.139	31.4%	10.6%	16.6%	50.0%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
7	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.330	0.147	25.0%	8.8%	12.5%	54.9%	OF	$3,300	2B/OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.320	0.133	27.7%	7.9%	23.1%	38.5%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	Chris Archer	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$7,300	P	$6,800	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.316	0.164	29.0%	7.8%	26.5%	37.3%

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco, Colin Moran

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli, Josh Bell (if active), Adam Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado

It feels a little scary to say, but I actually prefer the Rockies’ offense over the Pirates’ offense in this one. Chris Archer is still a very good pitcher, but when things go south, they tend to get ugly in a hurry. The Rockies have been quiet in this series, but that isn’t going to last much longer. I wouldn’t rule out a full stack here, as Archer has given up a .335+ xwOBA and a 39%+ hard contact rate to batter from both sides of the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.360	0.252	34.8%	10.0%	20.0%	40.5%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.333	0.132	34.7%	6.3%	17.1%	48.5%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.319	0.227	37.7%	8.2%	23.3%	45.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$5,500	N/A	N/A
4	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.351	0.195	40.5%	10.4%	19.4%	39.0%	3B	$4,800	3B	$5,300	N/A	N/A
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.351	0.228	44.4%	7.4%	25.2%	35.5%	SS	$4,500	SS	$5,200	N/A	N/A
6	David Dahl	LEFT	0.380	0.254	38.8%	5.8%	21.7%	46.9%	OF	$3,300	OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
7	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.310	0.179	33.9%	9.6%	26.7%	64.4%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
8	Tony Wolters	LEFT	0.275	0.109	20.2%	12.6%	15.1%	57.1%	C	$3,000	C	$3,400	N/A	N/A
9	German Marquez	RIGHT	0.324	0.097	28.6%	0.0%	15.2%	56.0%	P	$7,100	P	$7,000	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.334	0.186	34.8%	7.8%	20.4%	48.1%

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, David Dahl, Tony Wolters (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Arizona
			Vince Velasquez							Patrick Corbin
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ARI-150							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.307	32.7%	1.62	26.0%	38.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.333	43.1%	1.01	28.6%	52.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.272	0.281	30.2%	0.47	28.8%	39.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.245	0.284	42.4%	0.63	31.3%	47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:			$8,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			8 of 27	Salary Rank:			9 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%	93.9	9.1%
	2018	21	3.75	3.80	27.4%	9.1%	39.1%	31.4%	16.6%	93.9	11.8%
	L14	3	4.10	0.93	25.0%	10.5%	45.5%	27.1%	12.5%	93.8	12.2%

Velasquez has put together a very nice season, after he was nearly moved to the bullpen full time. In 21 starts, he owns a 3.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. The fact that he’s managed to pitch this well despite having a high fly-ball rate in a home run-friendly ballpark is impressive. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .339 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. Velasquez has been very tough on righties this season, so his fantasy appeal will hinge on how many lefties crack the Diamondbacks’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is one of the top pitching options of the early slate, but I want to see Arizona’s lineup before making a final decision.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Patrick Corbin
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,000	Salary:			$11,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			3 of 27	Salary Rank:			4 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.12	4.03	21.6%	7.4%	50.4%	31.6%	18.5%	92.4	11.1%
	2018	23	2.97	3.31	30.7%	6.5%	48.3%	42.5%	17.0%	90.5	14.7%
	L14	3	2.25	3.79	32.9%	2.6%	49.0%	38.8%	24.5%	90.8	17.4%

Corbin is easily the top pitching target in the early four-game slate. He continues to dominate in each and every start. Overall, he owns a 2.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31% and a ground ball rate of 48%. While he does give up a lot of hard contact, it’s tough to get the ball in play against him, let alone get the ball in the air. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Phillies, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .308 with a strikeout rate of 22% against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Corbin is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies have the worst matchup of the early slate and it’s not particularly close. If you want to gain some leverage on the field, you can potentially take a Phillies’ hitter and play him against Patrick Corbin, even though both are in your lineup. The best way to attack Corbin is with a right-handed hitter that has a low k-rate and a high fly-ball rate against southpaws. The two batters that meet that criteria from the Phillies are Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.342	0.046	30.6%	14.3%	18.3%	54.3%	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.363	0.145	30.0%	21.6%	17.6%	26.7%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.356	0.207	36.7%	10.4%	10.4%	46.9%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.319	0.121	35.3%	4.5%	18.2%	46.5%	SS	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.372	0.119	20.9%	6.0%	23.9%	47.6%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.352	0.179	32.4%	10.4%	12.5%	41.9%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Roman Quinn	SWITCH	0.197	0.200	0.0%	0.0%	20.0%	25.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
8	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.349	0.155	40.9%	6.5%	35.1%	38.6%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
9	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.126	0.000	40.0%	0.0%	37.5%	80.0%	P	$8,500	P	$8,200	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.308	0.130	29.6%	8.2%	21.5%	45.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Rhys Hoskins (GPP), Maikel Franco (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona

The Diamondbacks are favored in this game, but I’m not crazy about their offense in a matchup against Vince Velasquez. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. It doesn’t help that we have games in Globe Life Park and Coors Field to target. Even though Arizona’s offense has plenty of firepower, there aren’t any hitters that really stand out in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.328	0.107	37.6%	4.6%	14.3%	55.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.375	0.223	45.9%	13.0%	28.6%	40.2%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,800	N/A	N/A
3	David Peralta	LEFT	0.381	0.239	48.9%	7.8%	18.0%	49.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	A.J. Pollock	RIGHT	0.386	0.245	43.9%	7.4%	21.0%	39.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,600	N/A	N/A
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.356	0.286	40.6%	7.2%	22.4%	27.7%	3B	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.366	0.194	38.8%	17.5%	23.5%	29.9%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.304	0.133	29.6%	8.2%	14.8%	54.6%	2B	$3,300	2B/SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
8	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.349	0.164	54.4%	14.5%	41.2%	38.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Patrick Corbin	LEFT	0.205	0.000	11.1%	7.1%	28.6%	69.2%	P	$10,000	P	$11,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.339	0.177	39.0%	9.7%	23.6%	44.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt (GPP), David Peralta (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Detroit								LA Angels
			Blaine Hardy							Jaime Barria
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			LAA-150							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.282	0.340	32.8%	0.93	11.8%	43.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.236	0.294	36.2%	0.61	19.5%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.293	0.281	36.9%	0.72	20.5%	41.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.407	0.418	41.1%	2.61	15.2%	39.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Blaine Hardy
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,100	Salary:			$7,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			21 of 27	Salary Rank:			12 of 27	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	4.66	5.94	18.0%	8.3%	33.0%	36.5%	20.0%	89.9	10.0%
	2018	11	4.44	3.25	18.2%	6.4%	42.2%	35.7%	19.1%	87.9	8.5%
	L14	3	4.65	3.00	17.5%	7.0%	41.9%	37.2%	18.6%	88.0	9.8%

Hardy isn’t a pitcher that should be on our radar for DFS. On the season, he owns a 4.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and typically doesn’t pitch deep into games. He’s listed as a sizable underdog today against the Angels, whose projected lineup has six batters with at least a .325 xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hardy in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jaime Barria
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,800	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:			24 of 27	Salary Rank:			20 of 27	Salary Rank:

	2018	16	4.67	3.84	17.4%	7.1%	41.8%	38.7%	15.9%	91.5	10.6%
	L14	3	5.45	5.06	10.5%	7.5%	50.0%	38.2%	14.6%	91.1	7.6%

Before looking at any statistics, Barria seems like a great value in a matchup at home against the Tigers. He’s a sizable favorite and we’ve been targeting pitchers against Detroit all season. Unfortunately, Barria isn’t quite as talented as his 3.84 ERA would lead you to believe. In his 16 starts, he has a 4.67 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17%. There is no denying that this is a favorable matchup, but Barria has some severe reverse splits and he’ll have to deal with Nick Castellanos, who owns a .372 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks to a lack of options, Barria is one of the three pitchers on my radar (Velasquez & Corbin are the other two), but he’s far from a sure thing.

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

The Tigers are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and have one of the lowest implied run totals of the slate. We shouldn’t get carried away with our exposure to this offense. With that said, Jaime Barria has allowed a .418 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season, which makes Nick Castellanos one of the most intriguing one-off plays of the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

table(tbl data-table). |^. |_. # |_. Player |_=. Bats |_=. xwOBA |_=. ISO|_=. HC% |_=. BB% |_=. K% |_=. GB% |_=. FD Pos. |_=. FD Sal. |_=. DK P

os. |_=. DK Sal. |_=. FDRFT Pos. |_=. FDRFT Sal. |

1	Mike Gerber	LEFT	0.303	0.200	0.0%	0.0%	40.0%	33.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.266	0.101	24.5%	3.6%	10.8%	46.2%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
3	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.372	0.182	47.9%	5.8%	24.0%	34.3%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
4	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.295	0.187	33.2%	11.2%	24.8%	37.6%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.340	0.079	40.6%	7.5%	9.8%	38.8%	C	$2,100	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.318	0.229	35.5%	8.2%	31.8%	38.4%	2B	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
7	John Hicks	RIGHT	0.280	0.138	40.7%	5.6%	29.6%	44.5%	1B	$2,100	1B/C	$3,100	N/A	N/A
8	James McCann	RIGHT	0.268	0.089	34.8%	5.2%	22.6%	38.7%	C	$2,100	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
9	Victor Reyes	RIGHT	0.243	0.042	33.3%	2.0%	21.4%	53.4%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.298	0.139	32.3%	5.5%	23.9%	40.6%

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Mike Gerber (FD), John Hicks (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

LA Angels

The Angels got off to a quick start last night, scoring seven runs in the first inning. Unfortunately, they didn’t do much after that. Even though they will likely still be without their best hitter, this is still an offense that I want exposure to in the early slate. On the season, Blaine Hardy has allowed a .340 xwOBA to lefties and a 37% hard contact rate to righties. The Angels are cheap and excellent lineup fillers if you are trying to pay up for Patrick Corbin and a few of those expensive bats that we talked about in Texas or Colorado.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Fletcher	RIGHT	0.343	0.123	38.5%	6.2%	12.3%	33.3%	2B	$2,400	2B/3B	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.347	0.068	37.3%	11.8%	18.8%	40.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
3	Justin Upton	RIGHT	0.328	0.099	48.3%	10.8%	30.4%	43.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.329	0.182	43.7%	5.3%	19.1%	39.4%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
5	Shohei Ohtani	LEFT	0.244	0.074	34.4%	10.0%	36.7%	56.3%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
6	Andrelton Simmons	RIGHT	0.335	0.130	37.3%	10.6%	5.7%	53.5%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
7	Jose Briceno	RIGHT	0.388	0.300	25.0%	9.1%	18.2%	50.0%	C	$2,300	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Kaleb Cowart	SWITCH	0.249	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,300	N/A	N/A
9	Eric Young	SWITCH	0.036	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	100.0%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
	Team Averages		0.289	0.108	33.1%	7.1%	27.7%	50.0%

Elite Plays – David Fletcher, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, August 8th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 12:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Seattle at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Pittsburgh at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit at LA Angels – 4:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

LA Angels

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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