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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 24th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-25 02:15:54

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Minnesota at Baltimore – 12:35 PM ET

Minnesota Baltimore
Article Image Jose Berrios Article Image Chris Tillman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-113 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.346 31.1% 12.3% 20.1% 38.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.319 29.5% 11.2% 22.4% 41.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.390 0.349 33.6% 9.6% 18.0% 37.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.341 32.2% 7.8% 16.9% 41.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Berrios
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $7,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 5.36 8.02 17.4% 12.5% 38.0% 33.3% 18.2%
2017 2 3.18 0.59 27.8% 3.7% 38.2% 26.5% 29.4%

We all expected Berrios to be great last season and it just didn’t pan out. He wasn’t ready for the big leagues. After being sent back down and then making two starts this season, he seems more than ready to take his dominance to the next level. He has pitched seven and two-third innings in each of his first two outings and he posted 11 strikeouts in his last start against the Rockies. He is still a boom or bust play at this point, but the Orioles are a team that can strikeout at a high rate and the pitching options in the early slate are ugly.

Quick Breakdown: Berrios has the highest strikeout upside of any pitcher in the early slate, but he does carry some risk.

Chris Tillman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $8,500 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.61 3.77 19.6% 9.2% 41.2% 31.5% 18.3%
2017 3 4.83 3.52 17.4% 10.1% 42.9% 26.5% 24.5%

Tillman has had a below-average strikeout rate in each of the last two seasons. He doesn’t have great command and he has a below-average ground ball rate. He has done a nice job of limiting hard contact, but the Twins’ offense has been red-hot lately. They are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching and see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards.

Quick Breakdown: There looks like more risk than potential reward with Tillman in this spot.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

Chris Tillman is a reverse-splits pitcher that has allowed a .341 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to righties in the last two seasons. Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano are in great spots, as they both hit from the right side and both have good power numbers against right-handed pitching. Joe Mauer and Max Kepler don’t have as favorable of a matchup, but they are viable options here as well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.350 0.325 0.239 32.6% 9.1% 19.5% 38.6% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.341 0.391 0.134 33.6% 14.1% 14.3% 47.2% 1B $3,100 1B $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.355 0.349 0.236 42.8% 12.2% 36.7% 33.3% 3B $4,000 3B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.349 0.323 0.216 35.4% 10.8% 18.4% 42.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.327 0.304 0.258 32.0% 11.1% 32.2% 33.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.311 0.283 0.184 32.6% 3.3% 23.8% 44.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.313 0.302 0.116 24.3% 7.7% 12.6% 35.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.324 0.323 0.190 36.1% 13.2% 31.8% 42.6% C $2,500 C $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.279 0.234 0.171 23.3% 6.5% 36.6% 35.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier, Miguel Sano

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Max Kepler, Jason Castro

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore

This game has a wide range of potential outcomes. We could see another dominant start from Jose Berrios, who is one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, or we could see him get blown up like he did so often last season. I will have some exposure to Berrios in this slate, but I will also have an Orioles’ hedge stack. For cash games, I don’t see any Orioles’ hitters that really stand out as elite plays in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.344 0.376 0.176 33.8% 11.2% 20.4% 45.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.343 0.342 0.192 32.7% 5.6% 16.0% 43.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.348 0.359 0.241 34.9% 7.0% 18.8% 37.8% 3B $4,000 3B $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.374 0.381 0.267 37.9% 7.3% 23.8% 40.0% OF $3,600 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.351 0.359 0.265 43.1% 14.1% 34.5% 36.8% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.319 0.302 0.142 34.4% 6.4% 26.7% 39.4% C $3,300 C $4,000 N/A N/A
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.413 0.392 0.346 41.7% 5.1% 30.5% 44.4% 1B $3,300 1B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
8 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.334 0.320 0.197 29.5% 3.0% 19.3% 42.0% 2B $2,900 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.278 0.286 0.108 29.9% 4.7% 16.8% 42.9% SS $2,300 SS $3,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis, Welington Castillo

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at Milwaukee – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Milwaukee
Article Image Marcus Stroman Article Image Matt Garza
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-105 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.313 33.8% 7.1% 18.7% 60.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.357 0.371 38.0% 9.9% 12.1% 49.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.303 28.2% 5.5% 20.2% 60.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.298 0.279 32.5% 4.9% 19.3% 55.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $10,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 9 3.53 3.00 19.5% 6.4% 61.3% 28.2% 21.8%

Stroman is the safest pitching option in the early slate. He may not have as much upside as Jose Berrios, but he certainly has a higher floor. Stroman has an elite ground ball rate and an average strikeout rate, which can usually keep him out of trouble and away from the big inning. This isn’t a perfect matchup, as the Brewers are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but they also have the third highest strikeout rate. Stroman also sees a slight bump here, as he doesn’t usually get to face the opposing pitcher in the lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Stroman is the safest play on the board in the early slate. It just depends on if you prioritize safety or upside.

Matt Garza
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,800 Salary:
Salary Rank: 9 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.60 4.51 15.2% 7.8% 54.8% 34.9% 19.0%
2017 5 4.10 2.43 18.8% 5.1% 44.8% 36.0% 10.1%

Garza’s numbers on the season actually look respectable. In five starts, he has a 4.10 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%. He’s not going to be able to sustain his 2.43 SIERA, but there’s a good chance that he will end up posting better numbers this season than he did a year ago. If there was ever a time to roster Garza in tournaments, this would be it. He gets to face a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup that won’t be able to play both Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales in a National League ballpark. Since the start of last season, Garza has held righties to a .279 xwOBA, so at the very least, he has a chance in this matchup.

Quick Breakdown: I usually don’t say this, but Garza is a viable tournament play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Matt Garza has traditional splits for a right-handed pitcher. His numbers against lefties are significantly worse than they are against righties. Over his last 24 starts, he has allowed a .371 xwOBA with a 38% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Whoever starts at first base for the Blue Jays (Justin Smoak or Kendrys Morales) makes a lot of sense as a one-off target. Ezequiel Carrera, Ryan Goins, and Chris Coghlan are viable punts if they are in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.303 0.294 0.116 26.3% 5.4% 14.9% 48.1% OF $3,600 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Ezequiel Carrera LEFT 0.301 0.274 0.109 25.1% 8.1% 20.5% 56.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
3 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.361 0.366 0.217 38.7% 16.7% 22.4% 36.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.324 0.347 0.204 42.8% 10.9% 33.6% 29.4% 1B $3,600 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.333 0.310 0.163 30.6% 5.1% 19.7% 45.8% 2B $3,100 2B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.322 0.316 0.165 29.7% 11.7% 27.2% 48.4% C $2,700 C $3,800 N/A N/A
7 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.279 0.272 0.097 24.5% 5.6% 16.5% 50.0% SS $2,000 2B/3B $2,500 N/A N/A
8 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.250 0.272 0.139 28.6% 6.7% 21.3% 48.0% 2B $2,200 SS $2,400 N/A N/A
9 Marcus Stroman RIGHT 0.814 0.412 1.000 66.7% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% P $8,900 P $10,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak or Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Ezequiel Carrera, Jose Bautista, Ryan Goins, Chris Coghlan

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers have shown an ability to hit right-handed pitching when healthy, but I don’t love the idea of targeting hitters against Marcus Stroman. He has a 60% ground ball rate against left and right-handed hitters and an average strikeout rate. He also limits hard contact against him. Eric Thames and Travis Shaw are viable one-off targets, but surprisingly, I’m more interested in the pitchers than these two offenses.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.330 0.302 0.142 35.4% 10.9% 25.8% 60.7% 2B $3,200 2B $4,500 N/A N/A
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.424 0.376 0.310 44.6% 16.4% 21.3% 41.1% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 N/A N/A
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.364 0.339 0.234 34.2% 7.7% 19.6% 56.1% OF $4,100 OF $4,700 N/A N/A
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.334 0.332 0.201 35.9% 8.2% 23.1% 39.1% 3B $4,000 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.314 0.292 0.154 31.4% 5.0% 18.6% 48.4% OF $3,200 3B/OF $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.302 0.294 0.154 28.2% 4.4% 18.1% 32.3% C $2,700 C $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.321 0.289 0.171 37.6% 10.1% 37.2% 44.2% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.258 0.244 0.130 24.4% 5.1% 20.7% 54.7% SS $2,500 SS $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.094 0.114 0.000 10.0% 8.0% 52.0% 100.0% P $8,300 P $7,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames, Travis Shaw

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Miami Oakland
Article Image Edinson Volquez Article Image Sonny Gray
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
OAK-125 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.370 35.8% 11.3% 17.3% 46.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.323 0.332 28.2% 7.1% 18.2% 53.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.339 0.328 28.9% 8.3% 17.5% 54.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.330 38.0% 8.9% 18.1% 55.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Edinson Volquez
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $7,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 13 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 34 4.72 5.37 16.3% 8.9% 51.2% 31.7% 19.5%
2017 8 4.95 4.87 22.3% 14.7% 43.2% 37.7% 16.7%

Volquez has seen a boost in strikeouts this season, but the rest of his numbers are trending in the wrong direction. In eight starts, he has a 4.95 SIERA with a walk rate of 14% and a hard contact rate of 37%. The A’s aren’t the best offense in baseball against right-handed pitching, but they have enough quality left-handed hitters in their lineup to make Volquez an easy fade. The fact that this game has an over/under of 9.0 runs is telling.

Quick Breakdown: Volquez can be avoided until he can flash some form.

Sonny Gray
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.32 5.69 18.2% 8.1% 53.9% 33.6% 16.1%
2017 4 4.16 3.97 17.9% 7.4% 56.3% 31.0% 12.7%

Gray is coming off of his best start of the season and one of his best starts in the last two years. He struck out eight batters against the Red Sox and picked up the win. His velocity is up a little this season and he has a swinging strike rate just under 10%, which is the highest mark in his career. My interest in Gray will depend on his ownership projection. The Marlins don’t strikeout often, but if Gray is expected to be low owned, he may carry some appeal in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: I need to see more from Gray before targeting him in cash games, but he’s a viable tournament play if he’s expected to be low owned.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

If you look at his xwOBA, Sonny Gray has neutral splits to left and right-handed hitters. However, he has allowed a 38% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters during that stretch if you want to look at Marcell Ozuna or Giancarlo Stanton in tournaments. Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, and Justin Bour are the preferred lefties, but this isn’t a great hitter’s park and there are better matchups to exploit in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.291 0.244 0.072 18.9% 5.5% 15.9% 56.8% 2B $2,800 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
2 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.372 0.385 0.198 40.9% 12.0% 20.1% 54.9% OF $3,500 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.332 0.337 0.180 36.9% 7.8% 19.6% 46.7% OF $3,700 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.325 0.333 0.224 38.0% 9.7% 29.0% 39.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.358 0.398 0.240 39.6% 12.4% 16.4% 45.1% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.337 0.308 0.112 30.7% 4.8% 16.9% 50.1% C $2,800 C $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.343 0.344 0.147 29.7% 8.1% 20.6% 36.7% 3B $2,600 3B $2,900 N/A N/A
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.282 0.305 0.241 41.4% 5.7% 11.4% 37.0% SS $2,400 SS $2,400 N/A N/A
9 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.293 0.284 0.085 23.5% 6.6% 11.1% 49.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Bour

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland

Edinson Volquez isn’t a great pitcher, but he has been tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a 29% hard contact rate with a 55% ground ball rate. He has struggled with lefties though, allowing a .370 xwOBA with a 46% ground ball rate. Matt Joyce, Jed Lowrie, Yonder Alonso, and Stephen Vogt are all viable value plays in the early slate. And as always, Khris Davis is viable in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.302 0.273 0.134 27.2% 6.4% 18.8% 47.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Matt Joyce LEFT 0.346 0.370 0.217 38.8% 17.1% 22.3% 40.8% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 N/A N/A
3 Jed Lowrie SWITCH 0.309 0.311 0.117 32.9% 8.2% 16.8% 37.8% 2B $2,300 2B $3,700 N/A N/A
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.348 0.368 0.286 40.9% 7.2% 28.2% 43.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.327 0.361 0.155 34.2% 10.0% 15.5% 39.9% 1B $3,200 1B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.314 0.322 0.164 26.8% 7.2% 15.1% 29.8% C $2,800 C $3,100 N/A N/A
7 Trevor Plouffe RIGHT 0.307 0.326 0.166 32.8% 5.8% 19.1% 43.5% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 N/A N/A
8 Chad Pinder RIGHT 0.377 0.447 0.304 41.2% 11.3% 24.5% 35.3% 2B $3,000 2B/SS $2,700 N/A N/A
9 Adam Rosales RIGHT 0.297 0.258 0.206 31.8% 6.8% 32.9% 34.9% 2B $2,600 SS $2,200 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Matt Joyce, Khris Davis, Yonder Alonso, Stephen Vogt

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at Arizona – 3:40 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Arizona
Article Image Jose Quintana Article Image Randall Delgado
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ARI-113 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.286 31.6% 5.1% 21.4% 49.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.361 0.348 29.6% 12.0% 17.2% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.306 0.297 31.8% 7.4% 21.9% 37.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.271 33.9% 7.0% 22.9% 44.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $9,600 Salary:
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.01 3.20 21.6% 6.0% 40.4% 32.7% 18.6%
2017 9 4.41 3.92 22.2% 10.0% 38.4% 28.0% 21.1%

Quintana is usually a pitcher that I have some interest in. He has a lot of talent, he has an above-average strikeout rate, and he hold both left and right-handed hitters in check. While he will benefit from the roof being closed in Chase Field today, this is still a bad spot for a pitcher. He has to face the Diamondbacks in a hitter-friendly ballpark. You can make the case for Quintana as a deep tournament play, but the Diamondbacks have a number of righties that could cause problems here.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana has the talent to pitch well here, but it’s a really bad spot for a pitcher. He’s a deep GPP flier.

Randall Delgado
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: 30 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 4.37 4.44 20.2% 10.7% 41.2% 32.9% 16.9%
2017 0 3.39 4.05 21.2% 4.4% 47.6% 29.8% 14.3%

Delgado is making his first start of the season after making 15 appearances out of the bullpen. He will draw the start in name today, but he isn’t going to pitch deep into this one. He has yet to throw more than 52 pitches in any single outing this season and likely won’t throw too far beyond that number today. This will basically be a bullpen start. Now, he does draw a fantastic matchup against the White Sox and he is only $4,000 on DraftKings if you want to take a shot on him in tournaments and hope that he can somehow get through five innings.

Quick Breakdown: Delgado isn’t going to pitch deep into this game, but he’s not the worst play at $4,000 on DraftKings.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Chase Field. It’s hard to put much emphasis on their matchup against Randall Delgado, as most of the hitters will only see him in one or two at-bats. With this being a bullpen start, we can’t really predict which batters are going to match up against which relievers, so we are playing the White Sox for the ballpark more than anything.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.338 0.305 0.198 26.0% 3.9% 16.5% 56.4% OF $3,100 OF $3,900 N/A N/A
2 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.329 0.331 0.141 29.2% 7.7% 9.7% 45.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,800 N/A N/A
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.341 0.344 0.166 31.4% 6.1% 17.4% 45.1% 1B $3,600 1B $4,900 N/A N/A
4 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.330 0.333 0.170 30.9% 6.2% 24.4% 52.1% OF $3,300 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
5 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.315 0.316 0.217 31.2% 9.4% 23.0% 38.6% 3B $3,300 3B $3,900 N/A N/A
6 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.307 0.280 0.162 30.3% 3.1% 26.1% 50.5% SS $2,900 SS $4,500 N/A N/A
7 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.288 0.280 0.139 19.3% 4.0% 24.7% 40.6% 2B $2,900 2B $3,600 N/A N/A
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.281 0.302 0.030 13.8% 12.3% 12.3% 41.4% C $2,400 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Jose Quintana LEFT 0.000 0.027 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $8,600 P $9,600 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Leury Garcia, Melky Cabrera, Jose Abreu, Avisail Garcia, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW

Arizona

The Diamondbacks’ matchup against Jose Quintana doesn’t look great on paper, but they do get to face him at home in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. Paul Goldschmidt and Yasmany Tomas are two of the best hitters in baseball against left-handed pitching and are both elite plays here. If Nick Ahmed bats in the two-hole again, he would provide excellent value across the industry. I also have some interest in Chris Owings and Brandon Drury.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Gregor Blanco LEFT 0.279 0.290 0.082 21.0% 10.7% 14.3% 43.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
2 Nick Ahmed RIGHT 0.317 0.290 0.148 29.6% 5.6% 16.0% 50.0% SS $2,300 SS $3,300 N/A N/A
3 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.419 0.410 0.205 47.3% 21.1% 19.3% 46.5% 1B $4,800 1B $5,500 N/A N/A
4 Chris Owings RIGHT 0.355 0.311 0.175 25.9% 5.8% 15.2% 46.2% SS $3,100 OF/SS $4,200 N/A N/A
5 Yasmany Tomas RIGHT 0.403 0.384 0.281 44.9% 8.2% 26.3% 47.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
6 Brandon Drury RIGHT 0.315 0.299 0.183 32.4% 4.2% 19.0% 51.0% 2B $2,600 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
7 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.266 0.283 0.161 31.6% 12.2% 32.2% 58.2% 3B $3,900 3B $5,500 N/A N/A
8 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.352 0.354 0.154 31.2% 13.1% 20.8% 45.9% C $2,400 C $2,800 N/A N/A
9 Randall Delgado RIGHT P $5,500 P $4,000 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Yasmany Tomas

Secondary Plays – Nick Ahmed, Chris Owings, Brandon Drury

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Cleveland
Article Image Lisalverto Bonilla Article Image Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-180 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.403 0.410 31.3% 10.0% 10.0% 28.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.327 37.5% 7.6% 24.4% 39.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.291 20.8% 10.0% 25.0% 54.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.325 0.330 29.2% 9.4% 19.9% 53.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lisalverto Bonilla
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 2 4.82 6.38 17.5% 10.0% 40.4% 26.8% 23.2%

Bonilla has had a strikeout rate of at least 25% in each of his last three seasons in the minor leagues. He is still an unproven commodity at the major league level, but we know the strikeout upside is there. The sample size is small (two starts and one appearance out of the bullpen), but Bonilla has a 15% swinging strike rate in the majors this season. Given his matchup against the Indians on the road, I will end up taking a wait and see approach today, but he’s certainly a pitcher to keep an eye on moving forward.

Quick Breakdown: Bonilla has shown some promise in the minors, I’m just not sure I can buy in on him against the Indians on the road.

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,200 Salary:
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 28 4.22 4.26 20.7% 8.6% 48.7% 31.9% 19.0%
2017 8 3.54 6.65 27.5% 8.3% 41.0% 37.9% 14.5%

Bauer has had some bad luck to start the year. He currently has a .342 BABIP and a 23% HR/FB rate, both of which are unsustainable. His velocity has been good and his swinging strike rate is in line with his career average. I don’t expect him to maintain a 27% strikeout rate, but he obviously has some positive regression due in terms of batted balls and home runs allowed. The Reds aren’t a team that strikes out often, but Bauer is a big favorite and is pitching at home.

Quick Breakdown: I hate to say it, but Bauer isn’t a bad play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have one of the lowest implied run totals in the slate. While they do get to utilize the DH in this series, they see a negative ballpark shift playing in Cleveland. They draw a mediocre matchup against Trevor Bauer, who has allowed a .327+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett, and Scott Schebler are viable plays here, but they don’t stand out as elite options in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.309 0.262 0.086 19.7% 9.1% 19.5% 46.2% OF $3,700 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.304 0.175 30.6% 9.2% 16.4% 38.9% SS $3,400 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.426 0.442 0.259 40.7% 17.6% 14.5% 37.1% 1B $4,400 1B $5,200 N/A N/A
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.323 0.322 0.247 36.8% 5.8% 26.7% 33.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 N/A N/A
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.320 0.320 0.159 34.3% 7.9% 23.6% 39.7% 3B $2,900 3B $4,300 N/A N/A
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.328 0.196 34.8% 7.7% 22.0% 51.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.313 0.302 0.081 18.7% 2.2% 13.2% 44.3% 2B $2,500 2B $4,300 N/A N/A
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.277 0.313 0.111 20.0% 7.2% 18.8% 42.0% C $2,800 C $3,200 N/A N/A
9 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.320 0.285 0.162 29.8% 5.6% 19.9% 43.4% 2B $2,000 2B/OF $4,100 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton, Joey Votto, Adam Duvall, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

Lisalverto Bonilla is still an unknown quantity at the major league level. We know that he is a right-handed pitcher that had a high strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate in the minors. The range of potential outcomes here is wide, but an Indians’ stack is firmly in play. They have one of the highest implied run totals in the slate and we know they hit right-handed pitching well as a team.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.340 0.344 0.184 38.0% 9.3% 19.4% 37.7% 2B $3,500 2B $4,700 N/A N/A
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.351 0.349 0.169 27.6% 8.9% 13.0% 47.1% SS $3,400 SS $4,600 N/A N/A
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.352 0.354 0.164 37.5% 8.9% 13.3% 47.1% OF $3,700 OF $4,800 N/A N/A
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.377 0.404 0.263 38.4% 15.3% 16.7% 36.2% 1B $3,100 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.363 0.380 0.258 37.6% 11.0% 21.2% 37.8% 1B $3,400 1B $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.357 0.332 0.163 26.0% 8.1% 9.6% 38.4% 3B $2,900 2B/3B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.338 0.311 0.183 28.7% 5.5% 16.8% 34.8% OF $2,800 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.227 0.264 0.154 30.2% 4.2% 24.5% 38.5% C $2,600 C $3,600 N/A N/A
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.444 0.339 0.364 40.0% 21.4% 42.9% 40.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,800 N/A N/A

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Carlos Santana, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Lonnie Chisenhall

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious