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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, May 2nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-03 00:56:02

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Kansas City Boston
kansascitymlb Danny Duffy bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-195 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.217 0.275 23.7% 6.2% 22.3% 45.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.316 33.0% 8.7% 27.8% 37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.333 0.332 33.4% 7.6% 20.8% 36.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.310 0.321 33.6% 9.6% 22.6% 44.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Danny Duffy
danny-duffy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,300 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 17 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 21 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.31 3.81 21.4% 6.7% 39.5% 29.8% 17.8%
2018 6 4.72 5.40 19.7% 9.9% 33.3% 40.0% 13.0%

Duffy is a fairly easy pitcher to predict when it comes to DFS. When his velocity is up and when he’s generating swings and misses, we can target him with confidence. At all other times, he is a hittable pitcher. His fastball velocity is currently at it’s lowest point of his career and his swinging strike rate is under 9%.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Duffy and get your Red Sox stacks ready to go.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $7,800 Salary: $15,300
Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 4.31 3.32 23.5% 9.3% 43.2% 32.5% 20.3%
2018 2 3.78 7.27 27.5% 10.0% 32.0% 52.0% 4.0%

I may have jumped the gun on Pomeranz. I played him in his second start of the season, hoping that he had shaken off the rust. While his advanced numbers are solid — 3.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 28%, his batted ball profile isn’t as enticing. He’s giving up a lot of fly balls and a lot of hard contact. The Royals have been tough on the Red Sox lefties in this series and I’m expecting more of the same today.

Quick Breakdown: There are two clear targets in the early slate and Pomeranz isn’t one of them.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals knocked around Eduardo Rodriguez and managed to score a couple of runs against Chris Sale. This is their best matchup so far this series and we can go back to the right-handed hitters in this lineup. Since the start of last season, Drew Pomeranz has allowed a .321 xwOBA and a 34% hard contact rate to righties. Whit Merrifield, Jorge Soler, and Salvador Perez are all viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.365 0.341 0.234 35.3% 6.4% 15.2% 36.6% 2B $3,600 2B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
2 Jorge Soler RIGHT 0.369 0.404 0.210 47.6% 13.7% 28.8% 40.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,400
3 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.310 0.459 0.184 30.9% 2.9% 15.7% 42.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,300 3B $8,100
4 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.374 0.374 0.229 42.0% 4.5% 22.6% 32.1% C $3,300 C $3,600 C $7,700
5 Cheslor Cuthbert RIGHT 0.262 0.268 0.143 29.1% 4.9% 26.8% 45.5% 3B $2,400 1B/3B $2,900 3B $5,400
6 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.286 0.358 0.188 34.1% 6.2% 33.8% 38.8% 1B $2,300 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
7 Abraham Almonte SWITCH 0.253 0.391 0.053 19.5% 12.1% 25.8% 65.0% OF $2,500 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
8 Jon Jay LEFT 0.343 0.277 0.018 19.3% 13.4% 19.4% 52.4% OF $2,300 OF $2,800 CF $5,900
9 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.298 0.391 0.162 32.6% 4.8% 15.5% 39.5% SS $2,600 SS $3,100 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Salvador Perez (FD), Jorge Soler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

♪ The best part of waking up… is stacking the Red Sox up. ♪

Far from my best work, but it’ll do. Boston is one of the top stacks of the early slate, as they square off against Danny Duffy. We hit on the velocity and the low swinging strike rate, but we didn’t mention the fact that Duffy has allowed a .332 xwOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Hopefully Mookie Betts will be able to play today, as he boasts a .370 xwOBA against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.370 0.541 0.231 33.6% 15.4% 8.0% 42.5% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.293 0.320 0.045 21.6% 14.7% 19.9% 54.5% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,200
3 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.330 0.352 0.178 37.9% 12.2% 23.1% 43.2% 1B $4,100 1B $4,300 1B $8,300
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.473 0.425 0.439 54.4% 12.9% 27.3% 29.1% OF $4,500 OF $5,300 RF $9,800
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.307 0.429 0.116 26.7% 10.1% 15.9% 49.5% SS $4,100 SS $5,000 SS $9,500
6 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.298 0.219 0.117 27.0% 5.5% 11.0% 52.9% 2B $3,300 2B/SS $3,500 3B $6,800
7 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.304 0.386 0.105 28.0% 8.1% 23.0% 65.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,300 CF $6,700
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.329 0.240 0.151 24.2% 2.7% 14.7% 45.2% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $5,100
9 Tzu-Wei Lin LEFT 0.188 0.375 0.125 38.5% 0.0% 23.5% 83.3% SS $2,100 SS $2,900 SS $5,900

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (if active), Hanley Ramirez, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts

Secondary Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – GREEN

Tampa Bay at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Tampa Bay Detroit
tampabaymlb Blake Snell detroitmlb Michael Fulmer
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -103 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.211 0.269 29.0% 8.6% 26.5% 48.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.309 0.324 34.4% 5.2% 17.8% 44.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.314 32.6% 10.6% 22.8% 41.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.266 0.311 25.8% 6.5% 16.4% 52.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Blake Snell
blake-snell-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,800 Salary: $18,700
Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 4.72 4.04 21.8% 10.8% 43.9% 33.2% 18.8%
2018 6 3.30 2.52 29.9% 8.0% 38.1% 28.2% 18.8%

Snell is finally living up to all of the expectations we’ve had for him over the last few years. In his first six starts of the season, he has a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. His command has improved and he’s limiting hard contact. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Tigers. While they have a right-handed heavy lineup, they aren’t an offense that is afraid to swing and miss. The main reason for caution here is that the game is being played in Detroit.

Quick Breakdown: Snell is viable in tournaments and you can pair him with one of the two aces (Kluber or Martinez).

Michael Fulmer
michael-fulmer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,000 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.48 3.83 16.9% 5.9% 49.2% 30.0% 18.1%
2018 5 4.16 2.76 18.0% 5.7% 45.5% 29.7% 18.7%

There are a few pitchers in baseball that always have a lower ERA than SIERA. Whether it’s their ability to limit home runs or pitch out of jams, they never seem to experience the regression that we’d expect. Fulmer is one of those pitchers. Every single season, his ERA is significantly lower than his SIERA. While this makes me trust his 2.76 ERA a little more, he’s still not a high-strikeout pitcher. The Rays have been a team to pick on this season, but their lineup actually looks pretty decent when facing right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is in the same boat as Snell. He’s viable in tournaments to pair with one of the two aces, but far from a core play.

Batter Grind Down

Tampa Bay

The Rays see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Detroit, but their matchup against Michael Fulmer is far from ideal. Over the last two seasons, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA. If you must target a Rays’ hitter here, lefties have significantly better numbers against Fulmer.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.342 0.427 0.181 28.1% 8.2% 12.4% 41.4% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $7,300
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.338 0.390 0.176 35.4% 5.0% 24.6% 34.2% 1B $3,800 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
3 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.321 0.365 0.104 26.3% 5.9% 19.6% 47.4% 3B $2,800 3B $3,100 3B $5,800
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.330 0.376 0.140 37.2% 15.9% 26.9% 46.6% 1B $2,900 1B $3,000 2B $5,600
5 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.346 0.258 0.214 40.9% 7.8% 30.0% 38.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,200 CF $6,600
6 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.299 0.320 0.192 38.3% 7.4% 17.3% 56.7% 2B $3,200 2B $3,700 2B $7,500
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.332 0.468 0.193 34.0% 5.2% 17.1% 53.1% C $2,800 C $3,700 C $7,500
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.269 0.262 0.088 20.9% 9.2% 18.3% 48.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.297 0.321 0.127 36.7% 3.7% 18.8% 49.0% SS $2,900 SS $3,000 SS $6,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Brad Miller

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

The Tigers have a difficult matchup on paper, but we’ve seen Blake Snell get shelled a number of times throughout his career. When he’s struggling to find the strike zone, he can give up runs in bunches. I’m not saying that will happen today, but Detroit has more upside than Tampa Bay. Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, and James McCann all boast a .400+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.305 0.462 0.175 21.2% 4.5% 15.9% 41.9% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
2 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.272 0.412 0.114 34.5% 8.2% 30.6% 51.7% 3B $3,400 3B $3,700 3B $7,600
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.416 0.473 0.167 47.1% 15.6% 21.5% 37.6% 1B $3,800 1B $4,400 1B $8,000
4 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.421 0.385 0.299 45.7% 6.7% 15.2% 41.1% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
5 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.274 0.348 0.065 31.5% 6.9% 13.8% 53.3% C $2,700 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.273 0.407 0.140 37.0% 7.0% 40.4% 44.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,400
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.456 0.311 0.265 39.4% 9.2% 13.7% 36.4% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,700
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.289 0.301 0.085 27.6% 5.3% 8.8% 42.3% SS $2,400 SS $2,800 SS $5,700
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.271 0.327 0.032 29.8% 5.7% 12.9% 50.9% 2B $2,800 2B $2,800 SS $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Miguel Cabrera, Nick Castellanos, James McCann (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Texas at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Texas Cleveland
texasmlb Matt Moore clevelandmlb Corey Kluber
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-300 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.432 0.428 34.4% 8.6% 17.2% 39.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.261 30.7% 6.3% 32.1% 43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.332 0.348 37.1% 8.6% 18.5% 37.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.234 0.252 28.9% 3.4% 33.9% 44.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Matt Moore
matt-moore-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 22 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.86 5.52 18.7% 8.5% 37.7% 34.7% 15.9%
2018 5 5.27 5.33 14.4% 9.3% 37.9% 48.3% 13.8%

Moore has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball this season. In five starts, he has a 5.27 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and a lot of home runs. He’s an easy fade regardless of the matchup, but it doesn’t help that he is facing a talented Indians’ offense.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Moore in all formats.

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $13,200 Salary: $25,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 2.68 2.25 34.1% 4.6% 44.5% 28.9% 24.4%
2018 6 3.12 2.18 28.1% 5.4% 43.1% 33.3% 15.3%

Klube is the man. Klube and I go way back, which is why I have a cool nickname for him. Klube owns a 3.12 SIERA with a strikeout rate 28% this season. As good as those numbers are, they don’t quite match those from last season. He’ll have an opportunity to improve his 2018 numbers with a matchup against the Rangers, who have one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball against right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has a .310 xwOBA and a 27% strikeout rate against righties.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is an elite play in all formats and the top pitcher of the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers are massive underdogs on the road and draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA over the last two seasons. The Rangers are a full fade in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.259 0.214 0.070 25.1% 9.3% 22.9% 48.3% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 CF $6,000
2 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.383 0.334 0.194 40.7% 11.8% 22.0% 46.2% OF $3,300 OF $3,400 RF $6,900
3 Jurickson Profar SWITCH 0.293 0.342 0.036 27.0% 12.3% 18.5% 41.4% SS $2,900 2B/SS $2,900 3B $5,900
4 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.336 0.347 0.179 35.1% 9.4% 20.2% 44.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 RF $6,700
5 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.381 0.436 0.332 46.3% 13.6% 34.1% 30.1% OF $3,100 1B/OF $2,900 1B $5,900
6 Isiah Kiner-Falefa RIGHT 0.280 0.286 0.102 41.7% 3.8% 26.9% 41.2% 3B $2,600 2B/3B $2,900 3B $5,800
7 Ronald Guzman LEFT 0.237 0.225 0.195 33.3% 4.5% 31.8% 29.6% 1B $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $5,800
8 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.335 0.376 0.260 38.2% 9.2% 29.6% 38.7% C $2,700 C $2,900 C $5,700
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.289 0.275 0.150 36.7% 12.0% 40.7% 44.9% 2B $2,100 2B/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Perhaps the best part of waking up isn’t stacking the Red Sox up, it might be loading up on the Indians. They are playing at home and draw a dream matchup against Matt Moore. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact. He has given up a .428 xwOBA to lefties and a .348 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. All of this should sound great to your ears.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.372 0.355 0.211 42.0% 8.4% 13.3% 38.8% SS $4,300 SS $4,900 SS $9,500
2 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.306 0.304 0.136 29.4% 9.4% 19.9% 41.9% 2B $3,400 2B $3,100 2B $5,800
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.372 0.449 0.240 37.7% 6.3% 10.4% 39.8% 3B $4,500 3B $4,700 IF/OF $9,400
4 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.309 0.424 0.077 25.2% 3.9% 11.8% 49.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 LF $8,400
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.390 0.339 0.191 35.8% 18.3% 22.6% 41.9% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.345 0.416 0.248 36.7% 7.0% 22.6% 39.2% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,700
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.330 0.395 0.144 23.9% 9.3% 20.5% 41.7% OF $2,400 OF $2,600 LF $4,900
8 Rajai Davis RIGHT 0.286 0.314 0.109 24.6% 8.0% 18.7% 44.0% OF $2,300 OF $2,600 CF $4,900
9 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.340 0.097 0.237 43.4% 12.4% 28.1% 50.0% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,500

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Yonder Alonso, Brandon Guyer

Stackability – GREEN

Toronto at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Toronto Minnesota
torontomlb Marcus Stroman minnesotamlb Fernando Romero
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-102 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.303 0.336 33.6% 9.2% 18.0% 65.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.322 33.1% 7.0% 21.5% 59.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 24 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.85 3.09 19.7% 7.4% 62.1% 31.4% 20.4%
2018 5 4.19 8.88 20.5% 12.3% 65.0% 47.6% 17.1%

Stroman isn’t as bad as his 8.88 ERA suggests, but he’s obviously been in bad form to start the 2018 season. In five starts, he has a 4.19 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 12%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Twins on the road. Stroman has struggled against left-handed hitters in his career and the Twins may roll out seven or eight lefties today.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options for cash games and tournaments.

Fernando Romero
fernando-romero-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,600 Salary: $4,700 Salary: $9,200
Salary Rank: 26 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Romero is the fourth ranked prospect in the Twins’ organization, so he’s not your average call-up that is making a spot start in the majors. In his four Triple-A appearances this season, he posted a 3.72 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s certainly an intriguing option on multi-pitcher sites, especially at a price point of $4,700 on DraftKings. I always like to lean on the betting markets in these situations and this game is basically set as a pick ‘em.

Quick Breakdown: Romero is viable as an SP2 in tournaments, but know that his range of outcomes is wide.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays draw a boom or bust matchup against rookie Fernando Romero. These pitching debuts typically don’t go as well as the player would have hoped, but there are a few cases when they do go well (Walker Buehler, Mike Soroca). I cash games, this is an easy situation to avoid completely. For tournaments, I don’t mind taking a chance on Romero or on the Blue Jays’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.353 0.397 0.254 35.3% 15.0% 23.2% 31.6% OF $3,300 OF $4,300 CF $8,200
2 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.429 0.508 0.406 38.0% 8.2% 27.3% 33.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,500 CF $9,000
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.401 0.364 0.261 39.9% 11.8% 22.6% 34.0% 1B $3,900 1B $3,500 1B $6,600
4 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.322 0.382 0.199 30.8% 8.0% 13.5% 38.4% 3B $3,700 3B $3,600 2B $7,700
5 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.311 0.404 0.140 27.1% 5.0% 16.0% 44.5% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.343 0.343 0.182 29.5% 13.4% 21.9% 52.1% C $2,600 C $3,000 C $5,400
7 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.355 0.228 0.173 35.4% 7.9% 21.8% 46.7% 1B $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $5,500
8 Lourdes Gurriel RIGHT 0.410 0.370 0.167 31.3% 0.0% 11.1% 37.5% OF $2,500 2B/SS $3,300 LF $6,700
9 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.288 0.260 0.170 26.1% 3.0% 13.4% 46.1% SS $2,300 SS $2,900 SS $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Yangervis Solarte

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins have a high implied total today, but Marcus Stroman is a talented pitcher with one of the highest ground ball rates in baseball. I know that his form hasn’t been great, but he’s still a pitcher that I have a difficult time stacking against. Instead, I will be targeting the Twins’ batters as one-off plays in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.326 0.254 0.198 32.3% 10.3% 20.2% 37.4% 2B $3,700 2B $4,300 2B $8,200
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.399 0.343 0.121 39.1% 13.4% 13.1% 49.2% 1B $3,100 1B $3,300 1B $6,300
3 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.347 0.260 0.255 34.0% 7.0% 18.0% 38.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
4 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.336 0.308 0.228 35.2% 6.6% 21.1% 31.1% SS $3,900 3B/SS $3,900 SS $7,200
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.335 0.353 0.218 37.2% 9.3% 15.8% 41.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 RF $6,500
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.346 0.354 0.153 31.9% 12.7% 19.8% 40.1% OF $2,500 OF $3,200 LF $6,700
7 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.376 0.343 0.274 39.7% 13.1% 24.6% 33.8% 1B $2,500 1B $3,200 1B $6,800
8 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.288 0.337 0.077 24.1% 9.9% 17.9% 42.5% 3B $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,900
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.313 0.189 0.141 34.5% 11.7% 30.2% 40.5% C $2,300 C $2,500 C $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago White Sox at St. Louis – 1:15 PM ET

Chicago White Sox St. Louis
whitesoxmlb Lucas Giolito stlouismlb Carlos Martinez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-260 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.343 32.7% 11.0% 15.1% 43.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.322 0.317 34.8% 10.8% 22.3% 50.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.330 32.7% 10.9% 14.7% 39.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.265 29.9% 6.5% 28.3% 53.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lucas Giolito
lucas-giolito-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,300
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 7 4.49 2.38 19.0% 6.7% 45.0% 35.4% 19.2%
2018 5 7.29 7.71 8.9% 17.1% 35.6% 28.7% 17.2%

Giolito had his best start of the season against the Royals and he only managed to score 12 fantasy points on DraftKings. That basically tells you everything that you need to know. His strikeout rate is below 10% for the season, which makes him an auto-fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Bad pitcher in a bad matchup.

Carlos Martinez
carlos-martinez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $11,200 Salary: $21,100
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 3.85 3.64 25.3% 8.3% 51.3% 32.1% 19.4%
2018 6 3.87 1.43 25.3% 10.8% 57.8% 34.4% 26.9%

Martinez is the other elite arm on the mound in the early slate (Corey Kluber was the first in case you forgot). He may not be as good as his 1.43 ERA suggests, but he still owns a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate of 25%. He does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground and inducing soft contact. The White Sox are an exploitable matchup, as they strikeout at a high rate and have little firepower to speak of against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Martinez is an elite play in all formats. It’s hard to pair him with Kluber on multi-pitcher sites, but it can be done if you really scrape the value barrel.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, they lose the use of the DH in this series, and they draw an awful matchup against Carlos Martinez. His numbers against left-handed hitters aren’t nearly as bad as people make them out to be — .317 xwOBA with a 22% strikeout rate. I love Yoan Moncada as much as the next DFS player, but even he’s a fade for me in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.384 0.447 0.254 45.5% 13.3% 34.6% 37.7% 2B $4,000 2B $4,200 2B $8,400
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.263 0.303 0.132 26.8% 3.3% 26.7% 53.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 SS $6,500
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.371 0.418 0.239 40.2% 5.1% 16.5% 45.5% 1B $4,100 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.321 0.449 0.252 41.6% 5.4% 38.7% 40.7% 3B $3,900 3B $3,700 3B $7,400
5 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.323 0.380 0.173 29.1% 11.5% 17.7% 38.9% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 IF/OF $5,400
6 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.348 0.327 0.206 37.4% 6.8% 26.5% 43.7% C $2,400 C $3,000 C $5,400
7 Daniel Palka LEFT 0.417 0.401 0.500 23.1% 0.0% 7.1% 23.1% OF $2,700 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,500
8 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.300 0.252 0.167 28.8% 4.4% 22.7% 52.9% OF $2,400 OF $3,000 CF $5,600
9 Lucas Giolito RIGHT P $5,500 P $4,300 P $8,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ stack didn’t work out as planned against James Shield, which was one of the many examples of why there are no sure things in baseball. While that was disappointing, they can get right back on the horse today. They have an exploitable matchup against Lucas Giolito, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .330+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.390 0.447 0.222 43.2% 17.8% 20.1% 24.9% 2B $3,100 2B/3B $3,800 3B $7,700
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.375 0.504 0.194 35.1% 13.0% 22.3% 50.5% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 CF $10,300
3 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.400 0.411 0.155 36.2% 9.1% 17.2% 47.1% 1B $3,700 1B $3,700 IF/OF $7,500
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.370 0.322 0.242 40.9% 7.9% 22.4% 45.7% OF $3,000 OF $4,000 LF $7,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.327 0.424 0.146 35.1% 5.1% 14.6% 45.1% C $3,100 C $3,900 C $7,400
6 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.356 0.302 0.229 36.6% 13.2% 21.5% 37.8% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 CF $8,400
7 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.351 0.359 0.240 36.2% 3.6% 27.9% 31.5% SS $3,800 SS $4,400 SS $8,000
8 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.315 0.301 0.136 28.0% 9.7% 14.2% 47.0% 2B $2,400 2B $2,800 2B $5,900
9 Carlos Martinez RIGHT 0.127 0.049 0.000 9.3% 1.5% 32.8% 83.3% P $9,500 P $11,200 P $21,100

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham, Jose Martinez, Yadier Molina (DK)

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, Dexter Fowler

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious