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MLB Grind Down: Wednesday, September 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-22 13:23:04

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

St. Louis at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

St. Louis Colorado
stlouismlb Luke Weaver coloradomlb German Marquez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL -125 12.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.389 3 38.9% 31.0% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.250 0 10.0% 20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.277 2 27.3% 29.1% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.445 0 33.3% 0.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luke Weaver
luke-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 29.4 FPPG: 16.4
Pitcher Rating: 57.5 Pitcher Rank: 17
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 86.8 2.89 3.03 31.8% 5.6% 10.8% 29.7% 33.8% 32.9%
2016 7 86.6 3.21 3.21 29.9% 6.9% 10.4% 32.9% 32.9% 31.9%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 1.50 — K%: 32.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.221
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 28.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.369

We have a small three game slate on tap this afternoon, which allows us to spend what could have been productive time at work on DFS. I saw a Tweet from a fantasy football writer the other day that said his sole purpose in life is to distract people from doing their regular day job. Great Tweet and so true. Weaver has pitched extremely well in his first seven major league starts, but will get his first exposure to Coors Field today. The Cardinals are small favorites here, but the over/under is set at a whopping 12.5 runs. I will be avoiding both pitchers in what should be another shootout in the thin air in Denver.

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $4,000
FPPG: 5.3 FPPG: 2.0
Pitcher Rating: 19.5 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 0 0.0 4.91 5.06 11.5% 15.4% 5.9% 72.2% 11.1% 21.1%
2016 0 0.0 4.91 5.06 11.5% 15.4% 5.9% 72.2% 11.1% 21.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 0.00 — K%: 0.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.351
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 6.23 — K%: 14.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.332

Marquez has made three appearances out of the bullpen, but this will be his first career major league start. In five starts at Triple-A this season, he posted a 4.35 ERA with a strikeout rate of 23.4%. He comes into the game as an underdog against the Cardinals, who are ranked fourth in team wOBA and second in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. A pitching debut in Coors Field doesn’t seem like a great spot for DFS.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the highest run total on the board and the highest one that I have seen in months. They are projected to score 6.40 runs, which is nearly two runs higher than their season average. They draw a favorable matchup against German Marquez and they get to face him in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field. Stack the Cardinals here, stack the Cardinals there, stack the Cardinals everywhere.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.389 0.268 47.2% 0.319 2B $4,500 2B/3B $5,400
2 Aledmys Diaz RIGHT 0.390 0.229 34.5% 0.267 SS $3,800 SS $5,200
3 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.357 0.319 42.9% 0.166 1B $3,900 1B/OF $5,100
4 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.319 0.158 32.8% 0.306 OF $3,600 OF $4,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.326 0.115 32.8% 0.367 C $3,600 C $3,900
6 Jhonny Peralta RIGHT 0.306 0.156 33.1% 0.285 SS $3,200 3B $3,800
7 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.355 0.300 36.2% 0.292 3B $3,300 2B/3B $4,800
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.331 0.256 40.4% 0.358 OF $3,900 OF $5,200
9 Luke Weaver RIGHT 0.293 0.000 28.6% 0.176 P $7,000 P $5,700
Team Averages — 0.341 0.200 36.5% 0.282 — — — —

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Aledmys Diaz, Stephen Piscotty, Jedd Gyorko

Secondary Plays – Brandon Moss, Yadier Molina, Jhonny Peralta

Stackability – GREEN

Colorado

The Rockies are one of the best offenses in baseball when they are playing at home and facing a right-handed pitcher. While Luke Weaver has been terrific in his first seven major league starts, he gives up a fair amount of fly balls and a fair amount of hard contact. There is a reason why the Rockies are projected to score more than six runs in this matchup. A game stack here will be very popular in the early slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.405 0.278 38.9% 0.526 OF $4,500 OF $5,600
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.388 0.135 34.4% 0.373 2B $4,200 2B $5,300
3 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.378 0.211 36.6% 0.291 OF $4,300 OF $5,500
4 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.401 0.298 36.9% 0.401 3B $3,900 3B $5,300
5 David Dahl LEFT 0.377 0.220 35.6% 0.294 OF $3,900 OF $4,900
6 Nick Hundley RIGHT 0.301 0.163 35.4% 0.423 C $3,700 C $4,700
7 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.282 0.155 35.0% 0.087 OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,600
8 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.351 0.162 30.6% 0.380 SS $3,000 1B/SS $3,800
9 German Marquez RIGHT 0.000 P $5,000 P $4,000
Team Averages — 0.360 0.203 35.4% 0.308 — — — —

Elite Plays – Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Nolan Arenado

Secondary Plays – David Dahl, Nick Hundley, Gerardo Parra

Stackability – GREEN

Houston at Oakland – 3:35 PM ET

Houston Oakland
houstonmlb Collin McHugh oaklandmlb Daniel Mengden
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU -127 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.345 10 28.3% 23.3% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.335 3 31.3% 22.1%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.349 14 32.2% 21.9% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.338 4 27.8% 21.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh
collin-mchugh-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,300
FPPG: 28.4 FPPG: 14.1
Pitcher Rating: 62.1 Pitcher Rank: 8
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 91.3 4.23 4.45 21.5% 7.7% 10.8% 38.9% 40.0% 28.6%
2016 30 95.1 3.96 4.66 22.6% 6.7% 10.8% 42.0% 37.2% 30.4%
2015 32 101.3 3.91 3.89 19.9% 6.2% 10.3% 45.4% 34.6% 25.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.75 — K%: 22.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.316
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.72 — K%: 19.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336

McHugh has been in mediocre form in his last five starts, posting a 4.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21.5%. While I don’t love him in the context of the entire 15-game slate, he is arguably the top play in the early slate. The A’s have a low strikeout rate as a whole, but they are ranked 27th in team wOBA and 23rd in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. McHugh could also see a sizable boost if Khris Davis is unable to suit up again.

Daniel Mengden
daniel-mengden-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $7,400
FPPG: 23.6 FPPG: 11.3
Pitcher Rating: 59.3 Pitcher Rank: 14
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 3 88.0 4.06 5.52 21.9% 6.3% 7.6% 34.8% 39.1% 43.5%
2016 12 95.7 4.52 5.68 21.7% 10.3% 9.4% 39.2% 36.5% 29.5%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 6.95 — K%: 22.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.368
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.25 — K%: 21.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.296

Mengden has a slightly above-average strikeout rate this season, but the rest of his numbers are subpar. He currently owns a 4.52 SIERA with a walk rate of 10.3%. He has struggled with hard contact (43.5%) in his last three starts and he comes into today’s game as an underdog against the Astros. While Houston does have a high strikeout rate, they are ranked 12th in team wOBA and tenth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have been red-hot at the plate recently, ranking sixth in team wOBA over the last month of play. Even though this ballpark isn’t suited for offensive production, this is still an exploitable matchup. In his 12 starts this season, Daniel Mengden has allowed a .335+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.331 0.171 31.3% 0.327 OF $3,400 OF $3,800
2 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.363 0.173 29.6% 0.366 3B $3,000 1B/3B $2,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.397 0.211 33.0% 0.297 2B $3,600 2B $5,000
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.361 0.197 35.8% 0.247 SS $3,700 SS $4,300
5 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.319 0.234 33.7% 0.346 C $3,200 C $3,700
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.303 0.164 35.9% 0.302 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.293 0.144 35.8% 0.310 1B $2,800 1B $3,100
8 Jason Castro LEFT 0.337 0.214 40.0% 0.191 C $2,800 C $2,800
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.234 0.092 24.1% 0.213 OF $2,200 OF $2,500
Team Averages — 0.326 0.178 33.2% 0.289 — — — —

Elite Plays – Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve (FD)

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve (DK), Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis

Stackability – YELLOW

Oakland

The A’s have not fared well against right-handed pitching this season and they come into the game with the eighth lowest team wOBA over the last month. They draw a mediocre matchup against Collin McHugh, who has pitched a little better than his 4.66 ERA would suggest. As always, Khris Davis is worth a look as a one-off target, assuming he is back in the lineup. Joey Wendle also offers nice value on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.332 0.079 32.4% 0.352 3B $2,500 2B $2,500
2 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.323 0.148 32.1% 0.346 3B $2,900 3B/OF $3,300
3 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.320 0.161 27.3% 0.275 C $2,700 C $3,200
4 Khris Davis RIGHT 0.339 0.262 39.6% 0.390 OF $3,400 OF $4,500
5 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.366 0.197 29.2% 0.496 3B $3,800 3B $4,000
6 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.311 0.119 34.9% 0.393 1B $2,600 1B $3,100
7 Marcus Semien RIGHT 0.306 0.185 27.6% 0.318 SS $3,200 SS $3,400
8 Bruce Maxwell LEFT 0.332 0.071 43.8% 0.461 C $2,800 C $2,500
9 Jake Smolinski RIGHT 0.259 0.074 28.1% 0.146 OF $2,400 OF $2,400
Team Averages — 0.321 0.144 32.8% 0.353 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Wendle, Khris Davis

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Seattle – 3:40 PM ET

Toronto Seattle
torontomlb Aaron Sanchez seattlemlb Felix Hernandez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR -103 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.302 11 33.2% 20.7% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.321 7 28.9% 17.4%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.258 3 27.4% 18.4% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.310 11 27.8% 20.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Aaron Sanchez
aaron-sanchez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $7,800
FPPG: 33.7 FPPG: 17.6
Pitcher Rating: 47.7 Pitcher Rank: 24
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 87.8 5.35 5.66 14.0% 10.8% 8.0% 47.8% 30.4% 40.0%
2016 27 96.9 3.99 3.17 19.6% 7.7% 8.0% 55.9% 23.6% 30.2%
2015 11 131.7 4.43 3.22 16.1% 11.6% 7.0% 60.6% 21.6% 21.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.40 — K%: 17.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.292
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 2.99 — K%: 19.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.281

Sanchez has looked like a completely different pitcher in his last four starts. While we don’t know what the issue is, there is clearly something off right now. During that stretch, he has a 5.35 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 10.8%. His ground ball rate is down in those four starts, while his hard contact rate is up dramatically. Given his form and the fact that he has to face a talented Mariners’ offense on the road, I will be avoiding Sanchez.

Felix Hernandez
felix-hernandez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 32.1 FPPG: 15.8
Pitcher Rating: 60.0 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 96.7 5.21 5.09 15.5% 9.7% 10.2% 39.3% 36.6% 32.2%
2016 22 100.2 4.64 3.79 19.1% 10.2% 9.5% 50.1% 30.2% 28.3%
2015 31 98.1 3.38 3.53 23.1% 7.0% 10.7% 56.2% 26.9% 25.4%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.44 — K%: 22.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.286
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.89 — K%: 20.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.331

Hernandez has also struggled over the last month of play, posting a 5.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.5%. His numbers are down across the board this season and the fact that he is pitching at home doesn’t make up for the other red flags. The biggest of which is his matchup against the Blue Jays, who are ranked eighth in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. As I mentioned earlier, Collin McHugh appears to be the safest play in the early slate.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays had a big night at the plate in a win over the Mariners last night. They will try to carry some of that momentum into today’s matchup against Felix Hernandez. While they may not have a high team total, this isn’t nearly as intimidating of a matchup as it used to be. On the season, Hernandez has allowed a .321 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .310 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.368 0.183 30.7% 0.386 2B $3,700 2B $3,700
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.401 0.269 40.8% 0.288 3B $4,100 3B $4,200
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.378 0.277 37.9% 0.344 1B $4,000 1B $4,400
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.350 0.202 39.6% 0.347 OF $3,800 OF $4,200
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.334 0.186 31.9% 0.307 C $3,000 C $3,200
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.332 0.209 35.3% 0.372 SS $3,200 SS $4,100
7 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.338 0.207 38.6% 0.175 OF $2,600 OF $2,800
8 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.276 0.137 30.7% 0.322 OF $3,200 OF $3,000
9 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.286 0.111 26.5% 0.277 OF $2,700 OF $2,800
Team Averages — 0.340 0.198 34.7% 0.313 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Devon Travis, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista

Stackability – YELLOW

Seattle

There are very few spots during the season when I actively target hitters against elite ground ball pitchers. The thought process is simple: the more ground balls a pitcher produces, the less likely that a player will hit for extra bases. The good news for the Mariners is that Aaron Sanchez has been in awful form recently. I still prefer to load up on batters in Coors Field, but this isn’t the worst matchup in the slate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.344 0.123 22.1% 0.469 OF $2,900 OF $4,300
2 Seth Smith LEFT 0.345 0.171 33.2% 0.386 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.384 0.244 38.5% 0.282 2B $3,000 2B $3,900
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.364 0.232 34.1% 0.388 OF $3,300 OF $3,900
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.398 0.241 40.3% 0.385 3B $3,000 3B $3,900
6 Adam Lind LEFT 0.310 0.220 39.9% 0.505 1B $2,400 1B $3,300
7 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.299 0.141 30.5% 0.320 OF $3,000 OF $3,600
8 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.352 0.305 34.4% 0.316 C $2,600 C $2,800
9 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.299 0.068 22.1% 0.274 SS $2,600 SS $2,700
Team Averages — 0.344 0.194 32.8% 0.369 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Seth Smith, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Boston Baltimore
bostonmlb Clay Buchholz baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL -105 10.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.366 6 37.1% 13.9% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.386 10 30.6% 20.3%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.308 15 26.3% 16.7% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.318 6 32.0% 17.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Clay Buchholz
clay-buchholz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,000
FPPG: 14.1 FPPG: 6.4
Pitcher Rating: 45.1 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 98.3 4.69 4.32 19.1% 9.1% 10.9% 40.3% 45.5% 41.6%
2016 19 107.5 5.16 5.20 15.3% 9.4% 9.5% 40.7% 42.7% 31.6%
2015 18 95.3 3.35 3.26 22.8% 4.9% 10.6% 48.3% 30.5% 23.7%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.68 — K%: 17.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.337
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.79 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.289

Buchholz has been in slightly better form over the last month of play, but there is no reason to look his way in DFS. In 19 starts this season, he has a 5.16 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 15.3%. The upside isn’t there and the downside is evident in a matchup against the Orioles. On the season, Baltimore is ranked third in team wOBA and first in team ISO against right-handed pitching.

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,600
FPPG: 19.8 FPPG: 8.9
Pitcher Rating: 49.2 Pitcher Rank: 23
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 111.0 4.42 3.72 18.1% 6.7% 9.6% 48.6% 40.5% 27.9%
2016 23 98.7 4.80 5.94 19.0% 11.0% 8.4% 48.3% 33.6% 31.4%
2015 32 95.6 3.93 4.11 21.2% 8.6% 8.0% 49.1% 28.8% 27.0%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 4.89 — K%: 20.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 4.85 — K%: 19.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.336

Jimenez is in the same boat as Clay Buchholz. While his recent form hasn’t been terrible, there is no reason to take a risk on a pitcher that has a low strikeout rate and a difficult matchup. On the season, the Red Sox are ranked first in team wOBA and fifth in team ISO against right-handed pitching. Both pitchers in this game should be avoided, as we can expect it to turn into a shootout.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox have the highest team wOBA of any team in baseball this season. They come into tonight’s game with the seventh highest run projection in the slate. They find themselves in a favorable matchup against Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a .386 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.363 0.132 33.7% 0.355 2B $3,700 2B $4,100
2 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.344 0.151 29.2% 0.308 SS $4,000 SS $4,400
3 David Ortiz LEFT 0.444 0.360 46.5% 0.400 1B $4,500 1B $5,600
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.383 0.215 33.5% 0.277 OF $4,100 OF $5,600
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.344 0.185 37.3% 0.472 1B $3,900 1B $5,200
6 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.356 0.160 35.3% 0.270 C $2,500 C $3,500
7 Brock Holt LEFT 0.336 0.160 24.7% 0.411 OF $3,100 OF $3,500
8 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.383 0.266 39.5% 0.369 OF $3,600 OF $4,800
9 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.416 0.228 33.3% 0.453 OF $3,100 OF $2,900
Team Averages — 0.374 0.206 34.8% 0.368 — — — —

Elite Plays – David Ortiz

Secondary Plays – Dustin Pedroia, Xander Bogaerts, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Sandy Leon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

Typically when Clay Buchholz gets hit, he gets hit hard. He has been in decent form recently, but I love the spot for the Orioles’ offense. They have mashed right-handed pitching all season and they have by far the most home runs of any team in baseball. Give a slight edge to the left-handed hitters in this lineup, as Buchholz has allowed a .366 wOBA and a 37.1% hard contact rate to lefties this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.351 0.202 31.6% 0.304 OF $3,500 OF $4,900
2 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.371 0.117 32.1% 0.359 OF $2,800 OF $3,300
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.372 0.260 34.9% 0.317 3B $3,700 3B/SS $4,900
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.376 0.284 38.6% 0.235 OF $3,500 OF $4,600
5 Chris Davis LEFT 0.361 0.284 42.6% 0.402 1B $3,800 1B $4,400
6 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.313 0.181 32.3% 0.346 C $2,800 C $4,100
7 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.341 0.206 29.2% 0.265 2B $3,000 2B $3,900
8 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.356 0.273 40.1% 0.316 3B $3,400 1B $4,300
9 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.315 0.134 32.4% 0.418 SS $2,200 SS $3,500
Team Averages — 0.351 0.216 34.9% 0.329 — — — —

Elite Plays – Chris Davis

Secondary Plays – Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Philadelphia
whitesoxmlb Chris Sale philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CWS -150 7.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2016) 0.246 5 26.6% 31.5% SP vs. Left (2016) 0.345 15 31.2% 16.5%
SP vs. Right (2016) 0.277 18 32.3% 24.8% SP vs. Right (2016) 0.284 11 30.7% 23.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $14,000
FPPG: 43.3 FPPG: 23.6
Pitcher Rating: 95.1 Pitcher Rank: 2
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 6 117.7 2.93 2.16 30.1% 4.7% 14.7% 45.4% 38.7% 37.4%
2016 29 109.2 3.46 3.03 25.8% 5.3% 11.3% 40.9% 38.0% 31.5%
2015 31 107.2 2.52 3.41 32.1% 4.9% 14.6% 42.6% 35.3% 25.1%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.35 — K%: 28.9% — wOBA Allowed: 0.293
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.10 — K%: 29.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.266

Sale has been a beast in his last five starts, posting a SIERA under 3.00 with a strikeout rate of 30.1%. He draws arguably the top matchup on the board, as he gets to square off against the struggling Phillies. On the season, Philadelphia is ranked 22nd or worse in team wOBA, team ISO, and team K% against left-handed pitching. The only pitcher that I have with a higher rating tonight is Max Scherzer, but I see the two as comparable plays.

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $8,100
FPPG: 29.3 FPPG: 15.2
Pitcher Rating: 60.8 Pitcher Rank: 12
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 89.0 4.74 2.93 16.7% 4.2% 8.8% 30.4% 50.0% 27.7%
2016 30 93.5 4.18 3.74 19.8% 5.3% 9.3% 39.8% 39.4% 30.9%
2015 8 92.4 3.56 2.65 24.1% 6.4% 10.4% 37.9% 40.0% 36.2%

Home (2015-16):—ERA: 3.12 — K%: 22.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.303
Away (2015-16):—ERA: 3.88 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.311

Eickhoff has good numbers at home in his career, boating a 3.12 ERA with a strikeout rate of 22.8% and a wOBA allowed of .303. He should fly under the radar tonight with Chris Sale pitching opposite him. I see Eickhoff as a nice leverage play in tournaments. He should be low owned and you would basically get twice the benefit if Sale ends up having a bad outing (which I don’t expect to happen). Eickhoff draws a nice matchup against the White Sox, who are ranked 24th in both team wOBA and team ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox have been much better offensively over the last month of play, but their matchup against Jerad Eickhoff is mediocre at best. They come into the game with a slightly below-average run projection. If you are targeting any White Sox hitters, give an edge to the ones that can hit from the left side of the plate. Eickhoff has allowed a .345 wOBA to left-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.348 0.164 32.2% 0.347 OF $3,300 OF $4,100
2 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.287 0.121 30.0% 0.268 SS $2,900 SS $3,400
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.334 0.141 28.8% 0.373 OF $3,300 OF $3,500
4 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.355 0.162 31.4% 0.442 1B $3,500 1B $4,200
5 Justin Morneau LEFT 0.309 0.170 27.9% 0.261 1B $2,500 1B $3,000
6 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.316 0.222 31.0% 0.279 3B $3,500 3B $3,800
7 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.300 0.129 33.7% 0.346 OF $3,300 OF $3,000
8 Alex Avila LEFT 0.318 0.153 34.6% 0.292 C $2,500 C $2,900
9 Chris Sale LEFT 0.219 0.000 0.0% P $11,000 P $14,000
Team Averages — 0.310 0.140 27.7% 0.326 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Eaton, Jose Abreu

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

The Phillies are ranked 22nd or worse in every single offensive category that is listed below. To make matters worse, they draw one of the most difficult matchups in all of baseball. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Chris Sale has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .280 wOBA this season.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. LHP ISO vs. LHP HC% vs. LHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.318 0.045 24.0% 0.344 2B $2,800 2B $2,500
2 Roman Quinn SWITCH 0.448 0.200 22.2% 0.312 OF $2,200 OF $2,000
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.353 0.229 36.1% 0.240 3B $2,500 3B $2,500
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.357 0.244 32.4% 0.392 1B $2,300 1B $3,300
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.421 0.313 42.2% 0.238 C $2,800 C $2,600
6 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.228 0.108 26.5% 0.308 SS $2,500 SS $2,900
7 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.337 0.132 28.6% 0.289 OF $2,700 OF $2,600
8 Tyler Goeddel RIGHT 0.198 0.063 26.4% 0.222 OF $2,000 OF $2,000
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.080 0.000 14.3% 0.000 P $7,900 P $8,100
Team Averages — 0.304 0.148 28.1% 0.261 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – NONE

Stackability – RED

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious