NFL Preseason: Saturday August 27th
Greetings Grinders! The NFL Preseason rolls on today with six games. The Chiefs and Bears play at 1:00ET, and the remaining six games start at 7:00ET or later. By now, you’ve probably heard me mention the preseason keys to success 1,000 times. I’ll spare you the long version here, but I do want to point something out real fast. I mentioned on the RotoGrinders periscope last night that the optimal roster build this week is using 7-8 starters. The winning lineup in the $3 GPP last night was Jameis Winston, Doug Martin, Charles Sims, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Josh Gordon, Jordan Reed, Jonathan Williams, Bucaneers D. That’s a lot heavier on Tampa Bay than I would have gone, but it perfectly illustrates what I’ve been saying. In Jordan Reed, Mike Evans, and Antonio Brown, you get high-volume PPR guys. In Charles Sims, you get a PPR running back and then you fill in with a guy like Jonathan Williams who picked up extra snaps with LeSean McCoy sitting out.
Today, I’ll try to highlight as many under-the-radar plays as I can, but I’m assuming that you already know about players similar to last night’s heroes like Mike Evans, Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon. Over the next 3000 or so words, I’ll try to highlight some strong plays on each team. I’m using snap count and target data from this preseason to find those plays. A copy of my spreadsheet is available if you would like to look at the numbers yourself. Anyways, that’s enough small talk, let’s dive in!
Kansas City at Chicago
Kansas City
Quarterback:
Top Target: Andy Reid said that the Chiefs starters could play into the third quarter today depending on how well they do. Alex Smith has played just 37 snaps this preseason, but he is 12/16 for 173 yards and a TD. Smith makes an excellent target, but the question is going to be how much Chiefs exposure do you want? The Chiefs starters will obviously be popular in the all-day slate as people always overuse players from the first game. In this case, they aren’t wrong to do that though. Someone won a GPP last night by stacking Tampa Bay.
Running Back:
Top Target: This might be the easiest decision on the entire slate. Jamaal Charles is out, Charcandrick West is out, and the Chiefs starters are playing into the third quarter. On my all-day teams, I will lock in Spencer Ware at RB and plan to fill out the rest of the team later. Ware has 24.5 DK points this preseason in 55 snaps. Even if Ware is 60 percent owned, I’m not overthinking this one. There are a limited number of places to find a RB who will score over 10 points. If you find one, you have to take that guy even if everyone else does, too.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: As I said above, the question is how many Chiefs do you want? Jeremy Maclin certainly fits the bill of a high-volume PPR receiver. He had four first-half targets last week before getting ejected (yes, that really happened). Over the preseason, he has four catches for 68 yards and a TD. Chris Conley is also worth a look here. He caught all three of his targets last week for 66 yards. I won’t own a lot of Conley though, as prefer the other Chiefs starters. You could even make a case for other Chiefs here, but they will be highly owned, and I think we’ll find other options that make just as much sense in the later games.
Tight End:
Top Target: Last week, the Chiefs starters played most of the first half. That meant 42 snaps for Travis Kelce. He caught three of the five targets he saw for 24 yards. Points are hard to come by at TE. There aren’t a lot of places you can look where you would expect five targets. That puts Kelce in the top tier at TE, even if that means you end up with three Chiefs on your roster.
Chicago
Quarterback:
Top Target: Jay Cutler has been less than stellar in the 38 snaps he’s played this preseason. He’s gone 11/16 for 101 yards which translates to 4.04 DK points. He’s had to face the Broncos and Patriots defenses though and today isn’t much better against a solid Chiefs defense. Cutler certainly has the weapons to be successful today but I would still prefer Smith on the other side of this game.
Running Back:
Top Target: Jeremy Langford appears to be the Week 1 starter in Chicago but I’m not convinced he’ll hold down that role all season. The other contenders in this backfield are Ka’Deem Carey and Jacquizz Rodgers. I’ll caution though that Rodgers is more of a third-down specialist. Ultimately, I won’t end up using anyone from the Bears backfield, but if I did it would be Langford. He has 12 carries for 62 yards and a TD this preseason.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: When possible, I try to avoid matchups against top-tier defensive backs. I consider Marcus Peters a top-tier defensive back. It seems unlikely that Peters will shadow Alshon Jeffrey or Kevin White but both get a slight downgrade here. If the Bears want, they can certainly move Jeffrey and White around the formation to get the matchup they want. Last week, Jeffrey and White played 24 and 32 snaps respectively and saw two and three targets. I expect Cutler to look to both of them more often this week but I wouldn’t call either a top-tier option. Where I might look instead is Josh Bellamy who has been targeted 10 times in two games this preseason. He’ll get a much better matchup against the Chiefs reserves but he’s nothing more than a GPP long shot.
Tight End:
Top Target: Zach Miller is still out with a concussion and none of Tony Moeaki, Khari Lee or Greg Scruggs have done enough to warrant consideration. If this were the only game on the slate, we would obviously just take Kelce and move on. I’ll own plenty of Kelce in all-day, but where I don’t, I’ll swap in a TE from the later games that I like better.
Detroit at Baltimore
Detroit
Quarterback:
Top Target: Matthew Stafford has played 35 snaps in the first two games during which he went 12/17 for 171 yards. Stafford is obviously the only option we are looking at here. Dan Orlovsky has played the most behind Stafford and has thrown a pick-six in each game. The Ravens defense might even be worth a look just to see if the streak continues. Anyways, back to Stafford. Last season, in the Lions third preseason game he went 11/15 for 173 yards and 2 TDs. I don’t necessarily think Stafford will play into the third quarter like other starters may but he also doesn’t necessarily need that long either. He’s a not quite in my top-tier at QB but he’s close.
Running Back:
Top Target: Keep your eye out for news on Ameer Abdullah. He’s looking to play for the first time this preseason after offseason shoulder surgery. If he does, I would expect him to see under ten plays but it would slightly downgrade the other Lions RBs. If Abdullah sits, I like Theo Riddick quite a bit. He’s been targeted four times in the 35 snaps he’s played. He’s the type of PPR RB I tend to target in preseason. The other name I’m interested in here is Dwayne Washington. He’s scored a TD in both games this preseason (one was a kick return). In this same game last season, Zach Zenner was given a long audition. I think Dwayne Washington sees that role tonight.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: Quinshad Davis and Jay Lee are battling for the Lions last WR spot but I would rather not target options like that on this slate. Both would be lucky to see five targets tonight. On the other hand, starters Golden Tate, Marvin Jones, and Anquan Boldin make much more sense. Mostly my interest is in Jones who saw six targets in 15 snaps last week and Tate who saw four. They are both strong options at WR.
Tight End:
Top Target: Eric Ebron missed several practices again this week and seems unlikely to play. With Brandon Pettigrew on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, that has left the first-team snaps to Cole Wick. He’s played 38% and 44% of the snaps in two games but has only been targeted four times. He’s a better option this week than last with Stafford at QB, but I would rather have a proven TE.
Baltimore
Quarterback:
Top Target: Joe Flacco will make his preseason debut tonight after tearing his ACL and MCL last November. Flacco said he anticipates playing about a half but I have a hard time believing that. John Harbaugh isn’t the kind of coach that is going to clearly tell us his plans though. Obviously, I don’t have any interest in Mallet or the Johnsons so Flacco is the default option. He’s a low to mid-tier option though.
Running Back:
Top Target: Since the starters will play this week, I’m expecting Justin Forsett and Javorius Allen to mostly split the first half carries. Terrence West is making the case for regular season carries though which means he could potentially steal a few early carries as well. In the second half Kenneth Dixon should get a chance to make his case of a roster spot. He’s actually the option I would prefer here. There’s no way to predict which of West, Allen, or Forsett will produce in limited first-half carries. Dixon has 16 carries this preseason for 66 yards. He’s only a GPP long shot though.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: Starters Kamar Aiken and Mike Wallace should play enough early snaps that we have to downgrade some of the players we’ve been using behind them. Jeremy Butler played 62% of the snaps two weeks ago and then just 24% last week as players like Chris Moore and Michael Campanaro returned to action. I could see taking a shot at Aiken and Wallace but they don’t see enough targets for my liking. That leaves me mostly interested in Chris Moore who played 21 snaps and saw five targets last week. I think you still can play Butler and Campanaro as well. Butler has 11 targets in two games this preseason while Campanaro had only two targets but did play 53% of the snaps last week.
Tight End:
Top Target: It sounds like Benjamin Watson will make his Ravens debut tonight. As the Ravens get back several of their injured TEs, Darren Waller loses any value he had in the first two games. Maxx Williams and Watson should get nearly all of the reps with Flacco which are the most valuable. Those are the two options I would stick with here.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis
Philadelphia
Quarterback:
Top Target: The Colts defense is a bit of a mess right now. They will be without six of their cornerbacks as Jalil Brown, D’Joun Smith, Tevin Mitchel, Vontae Davis, Patrick Robinson, and Antonio Cromartie all won’t play. On the other side of this game we have Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel. Bradford could get most of the first half but it wouldn’t surprise me to see Chase Daniel play 1.5 quarters. The Eagles obviously aren’t keeping four QBs so they don’t necessarily value getting McLeod Bethel-Thompson much work and Carson Wentz is still injured. You can use Daniel in a GPP but Bradford is the cash-game type option. He’s only played 32 snaps but has gone 15/20 for 118 yards. He should be able to obliterate this Colts secondary in the first half.
Running Back:
Top Target: The Eagles typically use Ryan Mathews on the ground and Darren Sproles as the third-down back. They should play their usual roles in the first half tonight. Mathews has seven carries for 33 yards and a TD thus far while Sproles has been targeted three times in just 12 snaps. I would mostly target Mathews and Sproles here but if you want to dig deep Kenjon Barner makes sense as a GPP long shot.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: If the Colts are missing six defensive backs, the outlook should be good for the Eagles WRs. You could make a case for several guys but I’ll focus mainly on Nelson Agholor who was targeted three times in 16 snaps last week. Agholor, Rueben Randle, Josh Huff, Chris Givens, Dorial Green-Beckham, and Paul Turner should see time with the starters. Who I’m really interested in though is free agent Paul Turner who has ten targets in two games. I also have to mention Dorial Green-Beckham who was targeted twice on the six snaps he played last week. Both of those targets were red zone targets which seems to be his early role in this offense.
Tight End:
Top Target: Zach Ertz and Brent Celek were each targeted three times in the 15 snaps they played with the starters last week. They both make sense here as Coach Pederson’s offense frequently uses two TEs. If you want to dig a little deeper, Trey Burton saw two targets in 14 snaps last week but it’s still a little too soon to recommend him after he destroyed all my teams two weeks ago.
Colts
Quarterback:
Top Target: The Eagles defense is much improved this season but they still aren’t a unit to be feared. Especially not when you get a chance to use Andrew Luck against them. Luck has played just 20 snaps so far but went 8/8 for 71 yards in those snaps. He’s a solid option playing an entire half against the Eagles defense.
Running Back:
Top Target: Frank Gore started last week’s game but ended up staying in for just three plays and one carry. Frank gore is 33 years old. He really doesn’t need the preseason work at all. It would surprise me if he plays more than 10 snaps tonight. Shockingly, Josh Ferguson has already vaulted over Robert Turbin as the second RB. I would mostly target Ferguson here even though he has been rather disappointing with nine yards on 13 carries this preseason. He should be able to improve that tonight playing behind the starting offensive line.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: TY Hilton and Donte Moncrief fit the bill here as starters who could see enough targets in the first half to hit value. I’m also interested in Phillip Dorsett who has nine targets this preseason. If you would prefer to target second half reps, you can look at Chester Rogers who has eight targets in two games and Tevaun Smith who has nine targets. Any of those are fine options as I expected plenty of scoring on both sides of this game.
Tight End:
Top Target: As I’ve said above, I prefer to target starting TEs as the backups just don’t see enough targets to hit value. That leads us to Dwayne Allen who has two targets in 26 snaps. He’s not a top option but he’s someone you can use considering he’ll be playing with Andrew Luck.
Giants at Jets
Giants
Quarterback:
Top Target: When asked about playing time Coach McAdoo said, “As a general proposition, we would like to take our starters into early in the third quarter. We will evaluate it at halftime and see how it goes. We may give a little bit more or give a little bit less, too.” Eli Manning has only played 19 snaps during which he went 4/9 for 44 yards. He hasn’t looked great but Ryan Nassib has been terrible behind him. Manning is obviously our target here. The Jets are a tough matchup but one that Manning should be able to handle. He’s a mid-tier option for me.
Running Back:
Top Target: The Giants backfield has is a nightmare to predict. They’ve used seven different RBs in two games with no one topping 15 total carries. I’m personally avoiding this situation as the Jets front seven is very solid but if you insist on going here you should target Shane Vereen. He’s the Giants third-down back and may pick up a few receptions. He probably still won’t even top five points though.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: Odell Beckham is the type of high-volume PPR WR I usually target in preseason. He would be a top play tonight except he has a tough matchup against Darrelle Revis. This is a matchup Beckham can win but I’m not expecting a huge performance. Instead, I would look to either Sterling Shepard or Victor Cruz. Of the two, I prefer Shepard who has five targets this preseason but has mainly worked with the starters. Cruz on the other hand is just a long shot playing his first game since injuring his knee.
Tight End:
Top Target: Larry Donnell is returning from a broken neck last season and should see his first preseason action tonight. In Donnell’s absence Will Tye has played with the first-team. They should split the first-team work tonight. Tye has just three targets while playing 40% of the snaps in both games. I’m not overly excited about Tye or Donnell tonight.
Jets
Quarterback:
Top Target: After holding out most of the offseason Ryan Fitzpatrick needs snaps to get in sync with the first-team offense. Fitzpatrick has gone 7/13 for 107 yards in the 23 snaps he played. I’m expecting Fitzpatrick to play into the third quarter and then be relieved by Geno Smith who should see most of the third and fourth quarters. Fitzpatrick is the top target here and he’s and he’s in my top-tier at QB.
Running Back:
Top Target: Matt Forte will make his Jets debut tonight but he won’t play enough for us to use him. That leaves us mostly looking at Bilal Powell who has only played 22 snaps but does have seven carries for 36 yards and a TD. I also might have some interest in Khiry Robinson as a deep GPP play if we hear that he’s a full go tonight. He practiced in full for the first time this week so be careful here.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall each played 13 snaps last week and saw two and three targets respectively. Both are strong options playing the entire first half. Of the two, I prefer Marshall who should see the higher volume of targets. If you want to chase second-half reps Robby Anderson, Charone Peake and Jalin Marshall are worth a look. They have 11, 11, and 13 targets respectively this preseason.
Tight End:
Top Target: During training camp we kept hearing how Jace Amaro would surpass Zach Sudfeld as the Jets number one TE. He’s certainly hasn’t done anything on the field to prove that though and he’s now dealing with a hamstring injury. That just leaves Sudfeld as an option. He has four targets while playing 21% and 34% in the first two games.
Tennessee at Oakland
Tennessee
Quarterback:
Top Target: Marcus Mariota and the Titans will face the Raiders tonight in their regular season dress rehearsal. Mariota has played just 33 snaps but is 14/15 for 149 yards and a TD. He’s one of the top options tonight with the starters playing an entire half.
Running Back:
Top Target: DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry have both been very impressive this preseason. Both have topped 100 yards rushing in under 15 carries. I prefer Murray who should play slightly more than Henry but I’ll have something close to an equal mix of these two. As thin as RB is tonight these are two of the better options.
Wide Receiver: Tajae Sharpe played 26 snaps last week and caught six balls on six targets. Sharpe is clearly Mariota’s favorite target. I don’t see any reason why he can’t at least match his six targets from last week as he plays an entire half tonight. Beyond Sharpe, things get a bit dicey. Harry Douglas and Justin Hunter are the best options. They played 30% and 51% of snaps last week and saw 5 and 6 targets respectively.
Tight End: Delanie Walker has only played 20 snaps so far this preseason but he has been targeted seven times. He’s a very solid option at tight end tonight. He’s the type of proven TE I mention. He should see more than enough targets in the first half to make value.
Oakland
Quarterback:
Top Target: Derek Carr has been somewhat ineffective this preseason. He’s only 12/20 for 82 yards in 38 snaps. The Raiders plan to get Carr the entire first half just like other starters though. He should be much more effective tonight playing behind starting offensive line and throwing to Cooper and Crabtree. He’s a mid-tier option
Running Back:
Top Target: The Raiders will get their first look at Jalen Richard tonight. He was drawing praise for his play in training camp before injuring him hamstring. The Raiders actually want to get both Richard and DeAndre Washington work behind the starting offensive line. This is likely to happen in the late second quarter or early third. That’s a slight downgrade for Latavius Murray. If I target anyone here it will be Richard or Washington but only in a GPP.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: I’m obviously interested in Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper for the same reasons I liked Antonio Brown
and Mike Evans last night. Both Cooper and Crabtree could see 5-7 targets in the first half and easily make value. Things are very crowded after Cooper and Crabtree but the coach did single out Seth Roberts as someone who is being “pushed” for the third WR job. Roberts has played 53% and 69% of snaps through two games. He has eight targets total, six of which came last week.
Tight End:
Top Target: I’m going to have to break from tradition here and not recommend the Raiders starting TE. Clive Walford has been the most impressive Raiders TE but he only has one catch that went for a 19-yard TD. He’s not someone I’m interested in though.
Los Angeles at Denver
Los Angeles
Quarterback:
Top Target: Case Keenum is rolling along as the Rams starting QB. Even though the Rams drafted Jared Goff number one overall, he’s not anywhere close to being ready to start. Keenum has been efficient in the preseason though going 10/12 for 111 yards and a TD. The problem is that he has the absolute worst matchup tonight against Denver’s starting defense. He’s in the bottom tier of QB options.
Running Back:
Top Target: As I mentioned with Keenum, the Denver defense is not a matchup you want to target. I would avoid Todd Gurley and Benny Cunningham entirely. The only place I would look in a GPP is either Aaron Green or Malcolm Brown. Green has four carries for 27 yards and also four receptions for 37 yards and a TD. Brown has done much better on the ground with 20 carries for 134 yards. He’s also caught three passes for 20 yards and a TD.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: If this were any other matchup I would have some interest in Pharoh Cooper who has been a favorite target of Keenum and Goff in practice. I don’t like his chances against Denver’s secondary though. The only place I would maybe look is Nelson Spruce who has six catches for 51 yards and a TD on eight targets.
Tight End:
Top Target: Tyler Higbee sat out last week’s game but he returned to practice this week. As long as he plays, Tyler Higbee is the one option on this LA offense that you can target. In the game against Dallas Higbee had 5 catches for 49 yards on six targets.
Denver:
Quarterback:
Top Target: Eventually someone is going to step up and win the Broncos starting QB job. Mark Sanchez looked like the front runner until he actually had to step on the field and throw some passes. Last week Trevor Siemian drew the start but threw an ugly pick-six and was rather ineffective. It sounds like Siemian will start again tonight but I have my concerns as he missed some practice time this week with a sore shoulder. The most interesting development is that Paxton Lynch is expected to play ahead of Mark Sanchez. I would prefer Lynch here as he’s been the top scoring option of the three. He’s gone 21/33 for 187 yards and two TDs in 58 snaps.
Running Back:
Top Target: Perhaps the most interesting news from last week’s game was that Devontae Booker is now the number two RB instead of Hillman. In fact, Hillman is in jeopardy of losing his roster spot to Kapri Bibbs. If you want to target the first half snaps the way to go is CJ Anderson. There’s a chance he loses some reps to Booker though. The second half will be very interesting though. Pay attention to the Denver beat writers to see if we can learn who will get the bulk of teh second half. One of Bibbs/Hillman will get a chance to state their case to make the roster.
Wide Receiver:
Top Target: As is the case with other high-volume WRs I’m interested in Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Each has four targets in about 35 snaps so far this preseason. If I’m picking between the two, I’ll go with Thomas as he’s the possession receiver while Sanders is more of a deep threat. Other than Thomas or Sanders, the name that jumps off the page is Bennie Fowler. On 13 targets he has nine catches for 111 yards. He’s also done that while playing only 43% and 37% of snaps.
Tight End:
Top Target: Typically, when young QBs are forced into action they look for safe throws. That usually leads to a lot of TE targets. Virgil Green played 24% and 40% of snaps the past two weeks but has been targeted seven times. He’s caught all of those target for 83 yards. He’s in the top tier of TE options tonight.
That should do it for tonight’t slate. I’ll be jumping on the RotoGrinders persicope this afternoon to answer any questions you may have. Just follow RotoGrinders on Twitter and the link will appear in your timeline when it goes live. If you prefer your questions answered in writing head over to the NFL Preseason Forum Thread where I will be taking questions and discussing the slate with other Grinders.