The Relief Brief: Tuesday, August 30th

by Collin Campbell (collinman005@gmail.com) Last Updated 2016-08-31 02:10:53

Somewhere around 35% of at bats come against a team’s bullpen. Most DFSers, however, pay attention only to the matchup an offense has with starting pitchers.

In order to give RotoGrinders readers an edge on the field, we have developed a Bullpen Pitching article that focuses on bullpen usage and skill, as well as the elements that may come into play on that day in terms of the bullpen pitchers an offense is likeliest to see. Although we developed this article as part of our Premium Content Package, we decided to make this article free to all readers for the remainder of the 2016 MLB season!

Feel free to comment with any other ideas for this article that you would find useful in your own daily research.

Tuesday night features a full slate. While I won’t break down every bullpen situation, we will begin with the bullpen highlights. Let’s get to it!

1. Bullpen Highlights

Jake Odorizzi has been steady if unspectacular as a starter this season. While he hasn’t been at the same level of workhorse as others, he’s pitched six or more innings in 14 of his 27 starts this season. The Rays will likely give him an extended leash in this outing due to bullpen fatigue over the last three days. Ororizzi’s wOBA is 50 points higher on the road than at home on the season, and he may have a hard time against the Sox in Boston. If he does struggle, the Red Sox will be facing a weak and fatigued bullpen that is allowing 1.27 HR/9 over the last 30 days.

Ubaldo Jimenez pitched six innings of one run baseball against the Nationals in his last outing. While his ERA sat at 1.50 in that last outing, his xFIP reached 4.90, which is more in line with his season long numbers. Ubaldo will face the Jays tonight, and I don’t expect a strong performance from him in this spot. The Orioles bullpen continues to struggle, as they own the fourth worst SIERA over the last 30 days. Only Zach Britton can be considered a reliable bullpen source for the O’s, and they only pitch him in the ninth inning of games in which they have the lead. I don’t expect to see Britton tonight.

Andrew Albers has not started a big league game this season, but did throw six innings of relief pitching (and over 100 pitches) in an appearance against the Astros earlier in August. Albers may sound like a new name to you, but he’s a 30 year old pitcher who has spend most of his time in the minor leagues and on the disabled list. One plus for Albers is that he has been well stretched out in AAA this season. He had two complete games and nine other outings of six plus innings in the minors, so he should be able to throw 100 pitches if he’s making an impact out there. Unfortunately, Albers will be facing the Indians, who happen to hit lefties very well. If Albers predictably struggles, the Twins will be forced to turn things over to their mediocre bullpen that is allowing 1.31 HR/9 on the season.

Josh Tomlin is maintaining his stranglehold on the title of “Most Dongs Allowed” for 2016. That’s not a title that you’d want to place on your mantel. More importantly than all of the home runs allowed is Tomlin’s inability to work deep into ballgames of late. In his last five outings, Tomlin has pitched fewer than five innings in four of those five starts. So many numbers, I know. The Indians bullpen could use a rest as both Cody Allen and Andrew Miller threw a ton of pitches yesterday. Tomlin is unlikely to rise to the occasion, even against the Twins. The Indians do have one of the better bullpens in baseball, but I expect them to be shorthanded in this one as both Miller and Allen may be unavailable.

We’ve seen bad Edwin Jackson this season, and we’ve also seen less bad Edwin Jackson. Which version will we get tonight against the Braves? It’s sure to be one or the other. Jackson has posted an ERA of 5.71 and an xFIP of 5.61 through 52 innings of work in 2016. I don’t expect Jackson to pitch beyond six innings tonight, and I don’t expect those innings to be clean either (.343 wOBA to lefties, .368 wOBA to righties). He’ll turn things over to the Padres bullpen, which is in sole possession of the third worst SIERA in baseball over the last 30 days. Hey, if this were the Olympics, they would get the bronze. Isn’t that how it works?

Kyle Hendricks has been excellent this season, posting a league leading 2.19 ERA with a very good 3.68 xFIP. Hendricks is getting the mention here because of the Cubs bullpen. Trevor Cahill, Aroldis Chapman, Travis Wood, Spencer Patton and Felix Pena all threw double-digit pitches yesterday, while Justin Grimm and C.J. Edwards threw double digits the day before. I expect Hendricks to have a longer leash tonight as he has been in excellent for and the bullpen could use the rest.

Speaking of tired bullpens, the Pirates fit that bill as well. Chad Kuhl gets the call tonight, and he has five consecutive starts of six innings pitched or more. The table below shows nearly every member of the Pirates bullpen with heavy amounts of work in the last three days. Kuhl must face the Cubs tonight, and he will likely have an extended leash as well. Unfortunately, the Cubs are not likely to cooperate with him or the Pirates. I expect the Cubs to duplicate their late inning success tonight against this tired and depleted bullpen.

Rich Hill had a successful return from the DL in his last outing as he shut out the Giants over six innings. Hill has a fantastic 49.5 GB percentage on the season, which should play well in the fly ball friendly confines of Coors Field. Hill’s heavy curveball should keep him in the game tonight, and when he does turn things over to the Dodgers bullpen, don’t expect a lot much success there as the LAD bullpen has a 3.53 SIERA for the season. It’s worth mentioning that the Dodgers ‘pen does have the highest FB% in baseball at 39.4%.

Jered Weaver faces off against Tim Adleman in what can only be billed as “The Gas Can Showdown of Tuesday Night.” There is probably a better title, but that’s what I’ve got right now, so deal with it. Both of these starters have struggled with the long ball and with working deep into ballgames. Expect each respective bullpen to work around four innings apiece tonight. The Angels ‘pen has the fourth worst SIERA in baseball, while the Reds bullpen has maintained their hold on worst SIERA in baseball. There is goodness to be had here.

My Top 5 Bullpen Situations To Attack

1. Pittsburgh Pirates
2. Cincinnati Reds
3. Los Angeles Angels
4. Baltimore Orioles
5. Tampa Bay Rays

2. Bullpen Personnel Movement

The Padres activated Brandon Morrow from the paternity leave list. This is a low impact event.

The Marlins recalled Austin Brice from AAA. Brice has been solid in the minor leagues this season and will serve as a fresh arm for the bullpen. He may be called into a larger role if his stuff can translate into the big leagues.

3. Other Notes And Insights

In 82 plus innings pitched, Rich Hill has a HR/FB rate of 2.9% in 2016. It’s a relatively small sample size, but it’s a great stat to keep in mind heading into a game in Coors Field.

Feel free to follow me and ask me questions on Twitter – @collinman005

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