MLB Grind Down: Friday, August 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-08-26 00:54:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Chicago Cubs								Philadelphia
			Jose Quintana							Jerad Eickhoff
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-170							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.281	31.4%	4.1%	23.3%	50.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.353	0.318	31.4%	7.6%	17.7%	38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.302	32.4%	7.9%	23.2%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.282	0.296	31.7%	5.7%	23.5%	42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Quintana
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$22,400
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		4 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	4.01	3.20	21.6%	6.0%	40.4%	32.7%	18.6%
	2017	25	4.02	4.27	25.3%	8.7%	44.2%	31.3%	18.0%
	L30	6	4.20	4.50	23.3%	8.9%	48.4%	30.2%	16.7%

We have a full 15 game slate on tap tonight with some great tournaments around the industry. As always, I will try to point out my favorite cash and GPP plays. If I don’t specify one or the other, then I am high on that player for all formats. Happy Friday and let’s get right into it.

Quintana has pitched well since being traded to the Cubs. In his last six starts, he owns a 4.20 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He’s typically a pitcher that induces a decent number of ground balls and soft to medium contact, which helps him to stay away from those blowup outings that plague a lot of pitchers. His matchup tonight against the Phillies is intriguing for a number of reasons. I expect his ownership to be fairly low given the fact that we have such a big slate and the fact that this game is being played in a home run-friendly ballpark. While the risk is certainly present, so is the upside. He draws an exploitable matchup against the Phillies, who are ranked 24th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Quintana is expensive enough that I won’t be looking his way in cash games, but he’s certainly on my radar as a low-owned GPP target.

Jerad Eickhoff
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	33	4.05	3.65	20.6%	5.2%	40.7%	30.8%	20.0%
	2017	22	4.72	4.46	20.2%	9.1%	39.0%	32.6%	14.3%
	L30	6	4.95	3.51	19.2%	9.6%	35.4%	30.7%	13.9%

Eickhoff is an average major league pitcher, so it makes sense that most of his statistics are right around the league average. His ERA, strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate, and hard contact rate are all fairly close to major league averages, which means he’s a pitcher that we should pick and choose our spots with. In case you have been hiding under a rock, the Cubs have been a completely different offense since the All-Star break. The season long numbers alone show major improvement against right-handed pitching. Before the break, they were ranked 24th in team wOBA. They are now ranked 15th in team wOBA, which is a major jump in such a short period of time.

Quick Breakdown: Eickhoff has a difficult matchup in a bad ballpark. Unless you are looking for a reason to shut off your phone early tonight, he should be avoided.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

For a long time, it looked like the Cubs were going to miss the playoffs this year after defying the curse and winning the World Series last season. They’ve really turned it around since the All-Star break though, and now have a stranglehold on their division with over 30 games to play. This is a good matchup for their offense to keep rolling. Jerad Eickhoff has a high fly-ball rate and they get to face him in one of the most home run-friendly ballparks in baseball. A stack is firmly in play here for tournaments and we can look to the left-handed hitters in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jon Jay, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Alex Avila

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Ben Zobrist

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Philadelphia

We can talk about the Phillies’ offense as a whole or we can skip right to the good part – Rhys Hoskins. After showing a lot of power in the minor leagues, the young kid looks like he is going to be a special player for a long time. He has been mashing the baseball. If you don’t believe me, do yourself a favor and pull up his game log. He has hit eight home runs in his last 11 games and is still priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. If you haven’t been playing him, don’t worry, it’s not too late. The bandwagon still has plenty of room, so hop on board. As for the rest of the Phillies, I’m not too interested in a matchup against Jose Quintana.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Mets at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

NY Mets								Washington
			Jacob deGrom							A.J. Cole
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYM-123							8.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.301	31.7%	7.7%	23.3%	43.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.373	0.305	33.0%	12.4%	21.4%	36.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.290	33.3%	5.8%	28.8%	47.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.307	0.290	20.9%	6.6%	21.5%	38.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jacob deGrom
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$10,200	Salary:		$11,700	Salary:		$22,800
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	24	3.66	3.04	23.7%	6.0%	45.6%	31.3%	19.0%
	2017	24	3.53	3.35	28.4%	7.4%	45.1%	33.7%	20.9%
	L30	5	3.30	3.27	29.8%	6.1%	39.0%	33.7%	21.7%

In DFS, we are forced to take stands against certain players. If you try to play everyone in tournaments, you are relying on one lineup to make up for the rest. However, if you take stands against players and/or use a core throughout your lineups, you will give yourself multiple opportunities to shoot up the leaderboard when things go your way. My stand tonight is against Jacob deGrom, who is arguably the most talented pitcher in the slate. He’s also favored against a short-handed offense and he’s playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The reasoning for my deGrom fade is twofold. First, the Mets have nothing to play for other than padding their individual stats. And second, even without Bryce Harper, the Nationals still aren’t an offense that I like to pick on.

Quick Breakdown: My deGrom fade could come back to burn me, but it also gives me leverage on the field, especially if he’s going to be popular.

UPDATE: After seeing the Nationals’ lineup, deGrom is back on my radar. Viable in cash and tournaments

A.J. Cole
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	8	4.33	5.17	23.2%	8.3%	31.9%	25.7%	18.6%
	2017	4	5.29	5.32	18.4%	12.2%	46.2%	29.9%	20.9%
	L30	3	4.74	6.75	21.6%	10.8%	44.7%	28.6%	24.5%

Cole hasn’t shown enough upside at any level to warrant consideration in DFS. In four starts this season, he has an 18% strikeout rate with a 12% walk rate. In 17 Triple-A starts, he had an 18% strikeout rate with a walk rate of 9%. He might be pitching at home against a Mets’ offense that has nothing to play for at this point of the season, but we have 30 pitchers to choose from in tonight’s slate. We don’t need to take unnecessary risks.

Quick Breakdown: Given his lack of upside, Cole is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets are favored tonight against A.J. Cole, but they are playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and currently have the sixth lowest run total in the slate. To put it kindly, we don’t have to look hard to find better matchups and better ballparks to target tonight. If you are playing anyone in this Mets’ lineup, it should be for value. Brandon Nimmo is dirt cheap across the industry (FD: $2,400, DK: $2,800, FDRFT: $5,600) and should be batting leadoff. Asdrubal Cabrera has been swinging a cold bat, but is also a decent value on FanDuel ($2,400).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Domonic Smith

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Do I want to double-down on my Jacob deGrom fade by stacking the Nationals tonight? Of course not. As I mentioned in yesterday’s Grind Down, fading a pitcher doesn’t mean that I have to like the opposing offense. We have 15 games on the slate with some extremely high run totals. We don’t need to waste our roster spots on the Nationals, who are facing one of the most talented pitchers in the National League.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Seattle at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Seattle								NY Yankees
			Ariel Miranda							CC Sabathia
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-153							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.322	31.0%	8.2%	17.7%	43.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.287	0.275	16.8%	9.1%	22.6%	53.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.317	32.8%	8.2%	20.6%	28.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.302	28.6%	8.3%	18.5%	49.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ariel Miranda
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$10,800
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		27 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	10	4.77	3.88	19.0%	7.8%	31.2%	37.1%	17.7%
	2017	25	4.82	4.78	20.5%	8.4%	31.9%	30.5%	21.8%
	L30	6	4.14	6.25	26.5%	8.1%	27.9%	41.4%	21.8%

Miranda could be in for a quick hook tonight against the Yankees. He is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is facing a Yankees’ offense that has the fifth most home runs in baseball this season. Miranda doesn’t have a high enough strikeout rate (21% this season) to make up for any runs that he’s going to allow. There is a reason why he’s a sizable underdog tonight and it’s not because CC Sabathia is pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the reward with Miranda. Fire up those Yankees’ stacks.

CC Sabathia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:		25 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	4.35	3.91	19.8%	8.5%	50.1%	24.7%	24.0%
	2017	20	4.62	3.99	18.3%	8.5%	50.0%	29.6%	23.6%
	L30	5	4.39	5.55	17.1%	6.7%	49.4%	17.7%	34.2%

Sabathia is a pitcher that I rarely target in DFS, but I typically like to avoid the offense that he’s facing. It’s been a few years since he had an above-average strikeout rate, which obviously limits his upside in fantasy baseball. While the days of dominating are behind him, he still does an excellent job of inducing soft and medium contact. He induces a lot of ground balls and he has held batters from both sides of the plate under a .305 xwOBA since the beginning of last season.

Quick Breakdown: Sabathia isn’t a terrible play tonight against the Mariners, but he lacks the strikeout upside that I’m looking for in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

You would think the Mariners would be firmly in play tonight against a soft-throwing lefty in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but they are a complete fade in my eyes. As mentioned above, CC Sabathia has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters in the last two seasons. He doesn’t give up many extra-base hits and the current roster of the Mariners has had little to no success against him. In 140 plate appearances, they have a combined .260 wOBA with a 27% strikeout rate. At second glance, maybe CC deserves a look in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

The Yankees are the preferred offense to target in this game. While Ariel Miranda has done a nice job of limiting hard contact this season, he’s still an extreme fly-ball pitcher that is facing a talented Yankees’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I usually try to avoid lefty/lefty matchups, but Brett Gardner and Didi Gregorius are both fine options if you are looking to stack the Yankees tonight. As far as individual plays go, the right-handed bats of Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, and Tyler Austin (if batting sixth) are your best bets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Hicks, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Tyler Austin, Todd Frazier

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Minnesota at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Minnesota								Toronto
			Bartolo Colon							J.A. Happ
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-200							9.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.350	0.354	39.2%	5.9%	14.6%	36.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.279	0.316	31.1%	5.5%	17.8%	49.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.326	0.304	32.7%	3.5%	15.7%	49.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.302	0.310	30.1%	8.0%	22.1%	42.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	33	4.37	3.43	16.2%	4.1%	43.2%	35.4%	16.2%
	2017	19	5.14	6.70	13.4%	5.9%	42.9%	36.8%	18.5%
	L30	5	5.54	3.62	11.7%	5.1%	34.8%	45.6%	11.4%

Colon has had a couple of nice outings with the Twins, but we shouldn’t count on that happening again. He basically throws 90 MPH fastballs (most of them in the strike zone) and hopes that BABIP is on his side. He gives up a lot of hard contact every start, so when the line drives are finding holes in the outfield and when the fly-balls are going over the fence, runs can add up quickly.

Quick Breakdown: In case I didn’t make it clear, no I will not be targeting Colon tonight in Toronto.

J.A. Happ
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	4.28	3.18	20.5%	7.5%	42.5%	31.6%	17.8%
	2017	18	4.11	3.90	22.8%	7.4%	45.8%	28.1%	20.3%
	L30	6	4.30	4.54	24.4%	10.6%	46.6%	21.2%	23.1%

If Derek Holland can pitch well against the Twins, then Happ should be able to throw a no-hitter, right? Baseball doesn’t always work that way, but Happ is certainly an intriguing play tonight, especially at his reasonable price point. He carries an above-average strikeout rate (23%), he’s listed as a -200 favorite, and he’s facing a Twins’ offense that is missing two of their best hitters against southpaws in Miguel Sano and Robbie Grossman. The projected lineup for the Twins has a combined .300 xwOBA against southpaws this season, which is the third worst in the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Fridays make me happy. A good outing from Happ would do the same.

Batter Grind Down

Minnesota

The Twins let a lot of people down last night against Derek Holland. While it was a prime matchup, we shouldn’t be too surprised. Their lineup doesn’t have the same upside without Miguel Sano and Robbie Grossman. Tonight’s matchup against J.A. Happ doesn’t stand out on paper, although they do see a slight ballpark bump playing in Toronto. Happ does a nice job of limiting hard contact and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA in the last two seasons combined.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Chris Gimenez or Mitch Garver

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

We have conflicting trends here. While we love stacking against Bartolo Colon thanks to a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate, the Blue Jays are notorious for underperforming in favorable matchups. When is the last time you can remember a Blue Jays’ stack playing well in an obvious spot? I want to stack the Blue Jays, but my gut is telling me to use Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales as one-offs and to fade the rest of their hitters. Ownership should be high and Colon hasn’t been terrible against right-handed hitters, holding them to a .304 xwOBA with a 49% ground ball rate in the last two seasons. The one righty that we have no choice but to like is Josh Donaldson. He has been red-hot and third base is a barren wasteland tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista (DK & FDRFT), Miguel Montero

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Baltimore								Boston
			Jeremy Hellickson							Rick Porcello
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-150							10.0
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.331	0.346	29.5%	8.5%	16.5%	30.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.297	0.312	37.1%	4.2%	21.6%	37.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.310	27.4%	3.6%	18.7%	43.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.313	0.319	32.1%	4.0%	20.8%	45.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:		$11,400
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		25 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	4.15	3.71	20.0%	5.8%	40.7%	25.9%	20.8%
	2017	24	5.18	5.00	14.6%	6.0%	34.1%	31.5%	19.1%
	L30	5	4.50	7.16	20.0%	5.0%	29.1%	34.8%	21.4%

Hellickson has actually pitched a little better since joining the Orioles. In his last five starts, he has a 4.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20%. He’s still not a pitcher that we should be targeting in DFS though, especially given tonight’s matchup against the Red Sox in Fenway Park. We know this is one of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in baseball and we know the Red Sox have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Take the first four letters of his name, capitalize them, and add a NO.

Rick Porcello
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$16,800
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	33	3.78	3.15	21.2%	3.6%	43.1%	30.0%	16.9%
	2017	25	4.10	4.59	21.1%	4.7%	39.3%	40.5%	16.5%
	L30	5	4.05	4.59	22.6%	6.0%	42.6%	35.1%	17.0%

Porcello is one of those pitchers that is on my radar as a tournament flier at the start of the day, but when I build lineups, he doesn’t seem to find his way into any of my teams. I expect that to be the case again tonight. On paper, he is certainly an appealing option. He has an above-average strikeout rate, a low walk rate, he’s a sizable favorite, and he’s facing a right-handed heavy Orioles’ offense that strikes out at a high rate. A case can certainly be made for Porcello tonight in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Porcello may give up a couple of runs, but the strikeout upside is present in a matchup against the Orioles. Maybe this will be the night I actually take a shot on him.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

While a case can be made for Rick Porcello, one can also be made for the Orioles’ offense. If you are going to play Porcello tonight, it makes sense to use the Orioles’ as a hedge stack just in case. Baltimore is playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they are facing a pitcher that has allowed a 41% hard contact rate this season. While the batting average of the Orioles’ hitters hasn’t been great against Porcello in the past, it’s worth noting that Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, and Mark Trumbo all have at least two home runs against him in their careers.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Tim Beckham, Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Jeremy Hellickson is not a great pitcher at this stage of his career, but his splits against right-handed hitters should at least make us second guess a complete Red Sox stack. Since the start of last season, he has held righties to a .310 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate, while giving up a .346 xwOBA to lefties with a 31% ground ball rate. The matchup clearly favors those that can hit from the left side of the plate, which brings Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, and Mitch Moreland into play. If you still want to stack the Sox, I don’t mind adding Eduardo Nunez and Mookie Betts to the mix.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays – Eduardo Nunez, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez, Mitch Moreland

Stackability – YELLOW

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