MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-07-08 01:49:39

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Looking for more invaluable content to help you build better lineups? Start your FREE 7-Day Premium Trial Now!

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Chicago Cubs
			Trevor Williams							Eddie Butler
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-135							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.344	0.294	27.1%	6.4%	15.3%	43.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.354	0.387	38.7%	11.5%	15.3%	36.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.328	0.351	35.9%	6.6%	19.2%	44.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.366	0.336	33.8%	7.3%	15.0%	51.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	1	4.28	7.82	18.0%	8.2%	45.5%	31.1%	17.8%
	2017	10	4.54	4.82	17.3%	6.1%	43.9%	31.7%	24.0%

We have two early games on the schedule today, so if you are only playing the main slate, feel free to scroll down to the Brewers/Yankees game. Williams will be on the mound for the Pirates and as usual, he’s an easy fade for DFS purposes. He has a below-average strikeout rate and comes into the game as an underdog pitching on the road. The Cubs have struggled against right-handed pitching this season, but we need a pitcher with a decent skill set to exploit a favorable matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Williams is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eddie Butler
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	9	4.53	7.17	16.0%	7.2%	45.8%	38.7%	13.1%
	2017	10	5.74	4.18	13.8%	11.8%	45.3%	31.3%	20.0%

Butler is in the same boat as Trevor Williams. He doesn’t have the skill set that we are looking for in DFS and to be honest, he doesn’t really have the skill set for the major leagues either. In ten starts this season, he has a 5.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 12%. He doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, but when you can’t strike anyone out and continuously give out free base passes, it’s going to catch up to you.

Quick Breakdown: Butler is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

We rarely see a game in Wrigley Field with this high of an over/under when the wind is blowing in, which goes to show how little confidence Vegas has in either of these pitchers. If you are playing in the early slate, this is a great game to target for hitters. Over the last two seasons, Eddie Butler has allowed a .387 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .336 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. He has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he doesn’t induce many ground balls. The one through six batters are all viable targets from Pittsburgh.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.311	0.292	0.110	28.2%	4.4%	15.0%	42.6%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	John Jaso	LEFT	0.347	0.339	0.174	32.1%	9.8%	18.0%	45.4%	1B	$2,500	1B/OF	$3,900	N/A	N/A
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.333	0.342	0.170	34.9%	9.9%	20.5%	37.1%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.342	0.353	0.197	33.2%	12.4%	17.1%	51.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.316	0.323	0.127	31.4%	9.3%	26.1%	58.6%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.325	0.337	0.190	32.9%	8.9%	16.6%	39.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
7	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.312	0.325	0.091	28.4%	13.2%	18.8%	52.4%	C	$2,700	C	$2,700	N/A	N/A
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.308	0.297	0.119	25.7%	8.4%	14.7%	49.1%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,800	N/A	N/A
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.000	0.149	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	44.4%	37.5%	P	$7,100	P	$8,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, John Jaso, David Freese, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs’ matchup isn’t quite as favorable as the Pirates’ matchup, but they are playing at home and arguably have the more talented offense. They also have a higher implied run total. The sample size is still fairly small (11 starts), but Trevor Williams has been a reverse-splits pitcher thus far, allowing a .351 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Meanwhile, he has held lefties to a .294 xwOBA and a 27% hard contact rate. I wouldn’t completely rule out the left-handed bats of Ian Happ, Anthony Rizzo, and Ben Zobrist, but the righties have the edge in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.348	0.366	0.176	33.8%	15.2%	11.7%	47.0%	OF	$2,700	2B/OF	$4,000	N/A	N/A
2	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.377	0.347	0.238	36.2%	10.5%	22.8%	31.3%	3B	$3,900	3B	$5,400	N/A	N/A
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.386	0.381	0.249	35.7%	12.7%	15.4%	36.2%	1B	$4,300	1B	$5,500	N/A	N/A
4	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.345	0.339	0.271	35.1%	9.8%	31.6%	43.4%	OF	$3,700	2B/OF	$5,000	N/A	N/A
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.299	0.355	0.232	35.0%	12.2%	27.8%	41.2%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.296	0.312	0.112	26.7%	8.2%	13.6%	46.4%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,200	N/A	N/A
7	Victor Caratini	SWITCH	0.000	0.164	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	16.7%	100.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,500	N/A	N/A
8	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.301	0.295	0.162	28.5%	7.3%	22.4%	43.3%	SS	$2,600	SS	$3,900	N/A	N/A
9	Eddie Butler	RIGHT	0.102	0.136	0.000	9.1%	3.4%	20.7%	85.7%	P	$6,700	P	$7,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Diego at Philadelphia – 6:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
San Diego								Philadelphia
			Clayton Richard							Nick Pivetta
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-118							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.301	0.236	20.0%	6.3%	20.5%	76.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.356	0.314	31.0%	14.1%	22.8%	41.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.366	0.350	33.0%	8.9%	13.3%	56.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.399	0.377	42.9%	10.0%	25.5%	37.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clayton Richard
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		23 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	2016	9	4.46	3.33	13.4%	10.1%	65.1%	25.9%	21.6%
	2017	17	4.23	4.85	16.3%	6.9%	57.9%	32.7%	17.4%

Even though his ERA is close to 5.00 this season, Richard is one of those pitchers who is better in real baseball than he is in fantasy baseball. He doesn’t have the strikeout upside to make up for the hits and runs that he gives up on a regular basis. He does boast a 58% ground ball rate, but we can’t do much with it since he has a 16% strikeout rate. While it’s not ideal, you have to take one (or two on multi-pitcher sites) of these pitchers if you are playing the early-only slate. Richard may be the path of least resistance, as the Phillies are ranked 24th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: In a full slate, Richard wouldn’t be on my radar. But in the two-game early slate, we have to pick somebody.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Nick Pivetta
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,300	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30

	2017	9	4.57	5.40	24.3%	11.9%	39.4%	37.5%	11.7%

Pivetta has more strikeout upside than Clayton Richard, but you could argue that he also has a lower floor. He has struggled in his first nine major league starts, allowing a 4.57 SIERA with a walk rate of 12% and a hard contact rate of 38%. He has shown some strikeout upside though, striking out over 24% of the batters that he has faced. He draws one of the best matchups in all of baseball today, as he squares off against a Padres’ offense that is ranked 28th in team wOBA and dead last in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: If you want a higher floor, I’d give the edge to Richard. If you want a higher ceiling, I’d give the edge to Pivetta.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

In this two-game early slate, the Pirates/Cubs game looks like the one to target for hitters and this one looks like the one to target for pitchers. With that said, the offenses are both in decent spots playing in the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. In his nine starts, Nick Pivetta has had some serious reverse-splits, allowing a .377 xwOBA and a 43% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Wil Myers is one of my favorite hitters in this slate, as he boasts a .323 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. The rest of the Padres are secondary options at best.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Pirela	RIGHT	0.286	0.264	0.153	31.3%	4.4%	20.9%	53.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
2	Manuel Margot	RIGHT	0.296	0.269	0.135	22.6%	4.4%	21.7%	46.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,400	N/A	N/A
3	Wil Myers	RIGHT	0.340	0.323	0.213	34.6%	9.3%	25.0%	42.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Cory Spangenberg	LEFT	0.296	0.262	0.106	25.8%	5.5%	21.9%	49.2%	3B	$3,000	3B/OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
5	Hunter Renfroe	RIGHT	0.289	0.281	0.222	31.9%	4.7%	30.0%	42.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
6	Erick Aybar	SWITCH	0.282	0.263	0.100	21.0%	8.1%	14.7%	52.4%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Carlos Asuaje	LEFT	0.271	0.239	0.067	20.0%	8.8%	17.6%	41.7%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
8	Luis Torrens	RIGHT	0.222	0.291	0.021	19.4%	7.5%	22.6%	55.6%	C	$2,200	C	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Clayton Richard	LEFT	0.102	0.115	0.000	0.0%	2.7%	48.6%	72.7%	P	$7,100	P	$7,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Jose Pirela, Cory Spangenberg

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

One of the worst matchups you can target in baseball is to take a ground ball hitter that is facing a ground ball pitcher. There have been studies that show this is the worst matchup for xwOBA, ISO, wRC+, etc. Seeing as how Clayton Richard owns a 58% ground ball rate, we should cross off the ground ball hitters from the Phillies. Odubel Herrera, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, and Cameron Rupp all have above-average ground ball rates against lefties. The two batters that I would consider here are Freddy Galvis and Tommy Joseph, who both bat from the right side and have high fly ball rates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.291	0.287	0.093	25.6%	7.8%	23.3%	56.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.256	0.254	0.124	24.4%	2.0%	16.3%	38.9%	SS	$2,700	SS	$4,000	N/A	N/A
3	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.351	0.321	0.246	37.6%	9.2%	19.1%	48.4%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.360	0.362	0.282	31.7%	10.3%	22.8%	38.2%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.344	0.342	0.237	35.4%	7.4%	14.8%	47.4%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,000	N/A	N/A
6	Cameron Perkins	RIGHT	0.167		0.067	16.7%	0.0%	23.5%	54.5%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
7	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.405	0.332	0.268	35.7%	12.1%	27.9%	47.6%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Ty Kelly	SWITCH	0.305	0.259	0.103	24.2%	12.8%	17.0%	42.4%	2B	$2,000	2B/OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
9	Nick Pivetta	RIGHT	0.000	0.018	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	100.0%	P	$7,300	P	$8,400	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								NY Yankees
			Junior Guerra							Jordan Montgomery
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-200							10.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.333	36.5%	11.2%	19.7%	41.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.286	0.332	20.0%	7.3%	17.1%	50.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.307	30.1%	9.1%	18.5%	43.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.299	28.6%	7.8%	23.7%	40.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Junior Guerra
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,400
	Salary Rank:		27 of 30	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		24 of 30
	2016	20	4.42	2.81	20.3%	8.7%	45.3%	33.8%	19.9%
	2017	8	5.94	4.54	15.7%	13.5%	34.9%	30.5%	21.9%

Guerra has not pitched well since coming back from injury. His numbers are a far cry from last season and I’ve been stacking the opposing offense with each and every one of his starts. He currently owns a SIERA close to 6.00 with a walk rate (14%) that is nearly as high as his strikeout rate (16%). Not only is he giving up a lot of walks, but he has one of the lowest ground ball rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. This is a perfect spot to stack the Yankees.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Guerra in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jordan Montgomery
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30

	2017	15	4.21	3.62	22.9%	7.7%	41.3%	27.6%	15.2%

This is a very interesting slate when it comes to pitching. We have Max Scherzer at the top and then we have a handful of viable options right below him, with Montgomery being one of them. For a rookie, he’s had a very high floor, striking out at least five batters in eight of his last ten starts. Overall, he owns a 4.21 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He has done a nice job of limiting hard contact and he gets to face a Brewers’ offense that has one of the highest strikeout rates against left-handed pitching. Montgomery is a tad too expensive to consider as an SP1, but he is firmly in play as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is an elite SP2 tonight, especially if you are looking to pair him with Max Scherzer.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers get to play in a hitter-friendly ballpark and get to utilize the DH in this series. While those are both positives, their matchup against Jordan Montgomery is less than appealing. Regardless of splits, I rarely target left-handed hitters against left-handed pitchers, which takes Eric Thames and Travis Shaw out of the equation. And when it comes to right-handed hitters, Montgomery has held them to a .299 xwOBA and a 29% hard contact rate. Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, and Ryan Braun are intriguing one-off targets, but all three are far from core plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.354	0.294	0.203	33.3%	10.9%	29.1%	47.9%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,900
2	Domingo Santana	RIGHT	0.379	0.384	0.238	41.1%	12.9%	24.1%	45.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.413	0.407	0.252	40.8%	11.4%	13.7%	50.8%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,600	LF	$9,000
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.282	0.259	0.199	29.1%	5.3%	26.3%	42.1%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,500	3B	$8,800
5	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.406	0.341	0.226	48.7%	8.6%	27.6%	51.4%	1B	$2,100	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.326	0.336	0.081	41.7%	7.2%	18.1%	40.0%	C	$2,400	C	$3,700	C	$7,200
7	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.316	0.272	0.182	35.0%	4.1%	22.2%	38.8%	OF	$2,800	3B/OF	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,600
8	Keon Broxton	RIGHT	0.370	0.338	0.231	40.2%	13.9%	36.7%	43.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,500
9	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.322	0.263	0.140	30.2%	10.8%	17.5%	46.9%	SS	$2,800	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

We currently have eight teams with an implied total of at least five runs. This should help spread ownership out, which typically means we can just play our favorite stacks without worrying about them being too highly owned. I hope that’s the case with the Yankees, as they are my second favorite overall stack behind the Rockies. Junior Guerra walks a lot of batters and has been shelled in his last couple of starts. The Yankees draw a lot of walks themselves and happen to have the second highest team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. We can stack New York in tournaments and we can play the one through five hitters in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.347	0.327	0.153	30.9%	12.1%	17.1%	47.3%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.420	0.414	0.323	49.2%	13.5%	32.6%	37.6%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,800
3	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.427	0.386	0.304	38.8%	8.6%	22.6%	48.2%	C	$3,500	C	$4,700	C	$9,200
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.318	0.263	0.189	24.7%	2.9%	15.1%	41.6%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,700
5	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.328	0.325	0.149	31.3%	12.1%	25.0%	44.1%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,400	3B	$6,800
6	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.331	0.317	0.133	26.4%	9.8%	12.3%	48.1%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
7	Clint Frazier	RIGHT	0.411	0.256	0.333	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	0.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,700	CF	$5,200
8	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.270	0.303	0.174	30.1%	12.0%	21.6%	47.6%	1B	$2,200	1B/OF	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,600
9	Tyler Wade	LEFT	0.318	0.368	0.111	40.0%	18.2%	36.4%	20.0%	OF	$2,100	SS	$2,500	SS	$4,800

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Washington
			R.A. Dickey							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-270							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.335	0.338	28.7%	9.7%	15.1%	41.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.308	0.291	29.4%	8.8%	25.8%	33.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.339	29.9%	8.2%	17.3%	47.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.195	0.214	27.7%	3.0%	40.0%	35.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
R.A. Dickey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2016	29	4.81	4.46	17.3%	8.7%	42.1%	30.0%	22.7%
	2017	16	5.23	4.44	14.7%	9.2%	49.2%	28.3%	24.8%

Dickey has been an easy fade for the last couple of seasons. At this point in his career, he is a below-average starter with a low strikeout rate and high SIERA. The only time to consider him in DFS is on a short slate when he draws a favorable matchup. If that is the criteria that we are looking for when it comes to Dickey, then he is 0-for-2 tonight in a matchup against the Nationals in a 13 game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Dickey in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$12,400	Salary:		$13,200	Salary:		$25,500
	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2016	34	3.05	2.96	31.5%	6.2%	33.0%	30.1%	22.2%
	2017	16	2.74	2.06	35.0%	5.6%	36.9%	25.4%	21.0%

Scherzer is the ace of the slate and there isn’t an argument to be made against it. That doesn’t mean that he is a must play, but he does have the highest floor and the highest ceiling of any pitcher taking the mound tonight. In 16 starts this season, he owns a 2.74 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. He draws a favorable matchup against the Braves, who are ranked 20th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Atlanta doesn’t strikeout at a high rate, but I don’t factor that in quite as much when it comes to a pitcher with an elite strikeout rate. If you are looking to fade Scherzer, it’s not because he is in a bad spot, it’s because there are a number of viable pitching options that are considerably cheaper in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats, but with so many viable pitching options, I don’t consider him a must play in any format.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves draw the worst matchup in the slate and I don’t make a habit out of targeting hitters against elite pitchers. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.317	0.295	0.099	26.2%	7.9%	13.7%	43.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,400
2	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.331	0.307	0.137	28.3%	3.4%	12.3%	47.6%	2B	$2,700	2B	$2,800	2B	$5,600
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.428	0.429	0.320	42.7%	15.5%	21.3%	28.6%	3B	$3,400	1B/3B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.334	0.348	0.212	36.1%	4.9%	23.8%	40.9%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.341	0.358	0.137	33.8%	11.4%	16.3%	43.1%	OF	$3,200	OF	$2,800	RF	$5,600
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.353	0.358	0.240	39.3%	8.1%	24.5%	34.0%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,400
7	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.298	0.306	0.130	29.5%	6.2%	12.1%	41.0%	C	$2,500	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.269	0.292	0.093	30.0%	9.1%	23.3%	51.1%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,100
9	R.A. Dickey	RIGHT	0.097	0.133	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	75.0%	P	$7,400	P	$5,800	P	$11,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Let’s hope tonight’s forecast doesn’t call for rain at some point throughout the night, because the Nationals might decide to delay the game for a few hours again for no particular reason. When it comes to R.A. Dickey (and all other knuckleball pitchers), I like to lean heavily on BvP. Most batters can either hit the knuckleball, or they can’t. From the Nationals, Daniel Murphy, Ryan Zimmerman, and Ryan Raburn have all hit Dickey well in the past. Zimmerman’s numbers really stand out, as he is 14-for-39 for four home runs against him in his career. I don’t hate a Nationals’ stack here, but I’d rather pick my spots in this lineup and stack elsewhere.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Goodwin	LEFT	0.326	0.294	0.196	33.0%	9.7%	27.3%	45.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,800
2	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.263	0.267	0.059	21.7%	9.8%	20.3%	55.6%	SS	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,900	2B	$5,600
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.380	0.397	0.232	34.4%	18.5%	15.8%	39.7%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.326	0.337	0.188	36.3%	5.6%	22.7%	45.6%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
5	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.411	0.396	0.252	38.2%	6.9%	8.5%	35.5%	2B	$3,900	2B	$5,000	2B	$9,600
6	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.350	0.353	0.197	35.2%	10.0%	17.2%	36.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,700
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.300	0.314	0.158	32.6%	6.2%	17.9%	37.6%	C	$2,500	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
8	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.292	0.277	0.156	39.5%	7.2%	36.6%	45.3%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,700
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.194	0.165	0.011	24.3%	2.8%	28.7%	75.0%	P	$12,400	P	$13,200	P	$25,500

Elite Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Raburn

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Houston								Toronto
			Charlie Morton							Aaron Sanchez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			HOU-105							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.323	34.1%	11.0%	29.0%	49.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.341	32.7%	10.9%	22.0%	46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.336	0.327	33.6%	8.3%	23.2%	57.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.269	0.295	28.3%	5.2%	18.1%	57.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Charlie Morton
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2016	4	3.56	4.15	26.8%	11.3%	62.8%	20.5%	15.9%
	2017	10	3.81	4.06	25.8%	9.1%	51.3%	37.6%	15.9%

Morton is making his first start in a month and a half after being placed on the DL with a lat injury. It was bad timing as far as the injury was concerned, as he was having a very nice season. In ten starts, he has a 3.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 51%. You all know that I love a combination of a high strikeout rate with a high ground ball rate and very few pitchers have it. The issue with Morton is two-fold – he could be rusty in his first start back and he draws a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays on the road.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Morton tonight, but let’s give him a start or two before targeting him again.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$12,000
	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30
	2016	30	4.01	3.00	20.4%	8.0%	54.4%	30.3%	20.7%
	2017	5	4.97	3.33	17.5%	8.7%	40.0%	30.7%	22.7%

Sanchez is also coming off of the DL to make his first start in nearly a month and a half, although he was dealing with a finger injury. He’s had trouble staying healthy this season and it has shown in his results – 4.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. In the past, he has had an average strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate, but we haven’t seen either of those yet this year. In a matchup against the best offense in baseball, Sanchez can be avoided in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez needs to flash some form before we give him serious consideration.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have the highest team wOBA and the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. They are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they are facing a pitcher that has struggled to stay healthy all season. With so many high implied run totals, the Astros will get overlooked in tournaments tonight, but I like this contrarian stack. For cash games, give an edge to the left-handed hitters, as Sanchez has allowed a .341 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to lefties since the start of last season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.347	0.343	0.197	33.3%	10.4%	24.2%	49.6%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,100	RF	$9,900
2	Josh Reddick	LEFT	0.370	0.355	0.187	33.3%	9.0%	11.4%	36.7%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,500	RF	$8,800
3	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.395	0.370	0.196	30.7%	8.1%	9.9%	44.0%	2B	$4,200	2B	$5,100	2B	$10,000
4	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.369	0.371	0.205	37.2%	10.7%	21.0%	49.7%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,100	SS	$10,000
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.328	0.343	0.171	37.0%	10.2%	18.4%	36.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
6	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.328	0.307	0.205	33.0%	6.3%	17.8%	46.2%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
7	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.335	0.305	0.172	33.7%	6.5%	20.2%	46.0%	1B	$3,500	3B/OF	$4,100	1B	$8,000
8	Yuli Gurriel	RIGHT	0.344	0.316	0.178	32.4%	2.7%	11.4%	43.0%	1B	$3,700	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,200
9	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.332	0.284	0.116	20.3%	6.6%	9.6%	57.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,600	LF	$5,100

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Carlos Beltran

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

I’m not sure what we can expect from Charlie Morton in his first start back from injury. However, if he was fully healthy, I would have very little interest in the Blue Jays. Morton has an above-average strikeout rate and an above-average ground ball rate. The Blue Jays aren’t going to crack my list of favorite stacks tonight, but we can target a few of their hitters as one-offs. The ones that stand out the most at their respective price points are Jose Bautista (DK & FDRFT), Russell Martin (FD), Josh Donaldson, and Kendrys Morales (DK & FDRFT).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.358	0.362	0.214	38.0%	15.8%	21.6%	36.1%	OF	$4,000	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,200
2	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.331	0.327	0.167	30.4%	12.8%	25.9%	49.0%	C	$2,800	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
3	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.394	0.394	0.265	40.2%	14.3%	19.2%	39.9%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,200
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.348	0.370	0.244	40.4%	11.3%	29.7%	30.2%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
5	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.313	0.385	0.194	40.7%	8.1%	20.4%	48.9%	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
6	Troy Tulowitzki	RIGHT	0.322	0.344	0.184	33.3%	7.4%	17.2%	41.3%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
7	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.340	0.342	0.160	30.9%	8.7%	17.8%	45.9%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	1B	$6,000
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.283	0.294	0.111	26.7%	5.1%	15.7%	47.4%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000
9	Ryan Goins	LEFT	0.265	0.272	0.146	30.3%	7.1%	21.4%	47.3%	2B	$2,100	2B/SS	$2,200	2B	$4,100

MLB Grind Down: Friday, July 7th

Jump to Page 1 2 3

Stackability Rating System:

Pittsburgh at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Josh Bell

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, John Jaso, David Freese, Gregory Polanco

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo

Secondary Plays – Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

San Diego at Philadelphia – 6:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Wil Myers

Secondary Plays – Jose Pirela, Cory Spangenberg

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Tommy Joseph

Stackability – ORANGE

Milwaukee at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar, Domingo Santana, Ryan Braun

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius

Secondary Plays – Chase Headley, Jacoby Ellsbury

Stackability – GREEN

Atlanta at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Brian Goodwin, Ryan Zimmerman, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Raburn

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, Carlos Beltran

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista (DK & FDRFT), Russell Martin (FD), Josh Donaldson, and Kendrys Morales (DK & FDRFT)

Stackability – YELLOW

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author