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MLB Grind Down: Friday, June 1st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-01 19:39:17

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

NY Yankees Baltimore
nyyankeesmlb Sonny Gray baltimoremlb Andrew Cashner
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-160 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.306 0.352 35.1% 14.3% 19.6% 45.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.378 0.374 32.9% 11.8% 25.7% 32.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.397 0.384 35.6% 9.7% 17.7% 44.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.387 0.426 35.9% 10.9% 13.8% 42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Sonny Gray
sonny-gray-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,300
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.08 3.55 22.6% 8.4% 52.8% 28.0% 16.8%
2018 10 4.93 5.98 18.6% 11.9% 44.9% 35.4% 15.5%
L14 2 3.72 4.63 24.0% 8.0% 48.4% 31.3% 9.4%

Big shout out to our weatherman, Kevin Roth. I had the Yankees stacked in my main lineup last night and his late update to ORANGE / RED got me off of the game completely. It was eventually postponed. As I always say, tip your waitresses and thank your weatherman. Anyway, the same two pitchers will take the mound tonight, so I’ll just copy and paste what I wrote in yesterday’s Grind Down.

Gray hasn’t had the best season overall, but he has turned it around a bit in his last two starts with a 3.70 SIERA and a strikeout rate of 24%. We typically like to target right-handed pitchers against the Orioles, but Gray has been a reverse-splits pitcher throughout his career, so facing a right-handed heavy lineup isn’t exactly ideal. In a game that features a total of 10.0 runs, I will be avoiding both starting pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Gray is cheap, but there are better matchups to exploit.

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 5.52 3.40 12.2% 9.1% 48.6% 28.4% 18.5%
2018 11 4.84 5.07 19.7% 11.3% 37.8% 34.6% 15.4%
L14 2 5.53 6.30 15.7% 13.7% 38.9% 44.4% 8.3%

Cashner has seen a boost in his strikeout rate this season, but he’s still one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. In 11 starts, he has a 4.83 SIERA, a walk rate of 11%, and a hard contact rate of 35%. In 2017, he had a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate, but this season both have flipped. A matchup against the Yankees in this ballpark makes him an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in all formats and stack the Yankees.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees have crushed right-handed pitching this season. They draw a favorable matchup against Andrew Cashner and they get to face him in a ballpark that favors right-handed power. On the season, Cashner has allowed a .374 xwOBA to lefties and a .426 xwOBA to righties. A full Yankees’ stack is viable here and you can construct it in a number of ways. They have power all through their lineup, so it’s not a bad idea to make a few different Yankees’ stacks if you are multi-entering GPPs. For cash games, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, and Gary Sanchez are all elite options.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.318 0.306 0.162 35.7% 14.3% 17.3% 50.0% OF $3,100 OF $4,400 LF $8,200
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.442 0.454 0.336 46.5% 15.2% 26.3% 45.5% OF $4,800 OF $5,600 RF $10,700
3 Greg Bird LEFT 0.224 0.269 0.267 44.4% 0.0% 40.0% 44.4% 1B $2,700 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.296 0.320 0.129 33.3% 9.0% 32.9% 57.0% OF $4,500 OF $4,900 RF $9,000
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.365 0.332 0.264 38.7% 10.9% 25.2% 36.6% C $3,500 C $4,500 C $9,200
6 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.345 0.207 0.281 43.1% 10.8% 14.6% 31.3% SS $3,900 SS $4,300 SS $8,600
7 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.350 0.358 0.188 41.6% 14.5% 18.8% 44.0% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 CF $7,200
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.381 0.401 0.206 39.0% 2.3% 20.8% 49.0% 3B $2,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,700
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.423 0.516 0.296 39.0% 6.6% 26.4% 27.6% 2B $3,900 2B $4,900 2B $9,200

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, Greg Bird, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

Throughout his career, Sonny Gray has been a reverse-splits pitcher. With a right-handed heavy lineup and playing in a ballpark that favors right-handed power, this is a sneaky spot to load up on the Orioles’ offense. In 2018, Gray has allowed a .384 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Trey Mancini, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, and Mark Trumbo all bat from the right side and all have at least a .360 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season. The Orioles’ stack will be very low owned despite their home run upside in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.284 0.307 0.085 26.0% 11.0% 25.6% 48.0% 2B $2,100 2B/3B $2,700 2B $5,800
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.364 0.381 0.226 37.0% 1.8% 20.1% 40.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.376 0.319 0.269 32.3% 10.1% 16.9% 34.6% SS $4,200 SS $5,200 3B $10,100
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.370 0.304 0.150 47.8% 3.2% 22.6% 41.3% OF $2,600 1B $3,400 DH $6,500
5 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.221 0.199 0.176 21.8% 0.9% 28.6% 49.4% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,300
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.282 0.272 0.045 30.9% 8.8% 35.4% 46.8% 1B $2,300 1B $2,800 IF/OF $5,400
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.382 0.281 0.123 34.9% 10.3% 21.8% 49.1% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
8 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.358 0.412 0.170 32.4% 5.9% 21.6% 40.5% 3B $2,500 3B $3,100 3B $5,700
9 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.282 0.316 0.105 34.0% 8.1% 36.4% 46.9% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,500

Elite Plays – Adam Jones, Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Mark Trumbo, Jace Peterson, Jonathan Schoop

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs NY Mets
cubsmlb Tyler Chatwood nymetsmlb Zack Wheeler
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.364 0.388 35.1% 19.1% 14.8% 50.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337 0.371 45.6% 10.1% 25.8% 40.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.339 29.8% 21.5% 25.2% 55.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.324 0.313 24.2% 7.4% 22.1% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tyler Chatwood
tyler-chatwood-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,500
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 4.78 4.69 19.0% 12.2% 58.1% 29.1% 22.1%
2018 10 6.11 4.10 19.8% 20.3% 52.4% 32.8% 14.5%
L14 2 9.27 11.81 11.1% 30.6% 57.1% 33.3% 19.1%

Before we target Chatwood in DFS, he needs to find the strike zone on a more consistent basis. He currently has a 20% walk rate on the season. In other words, he is walking one out of every five batters that he is facing. It doesn’t matter if you have a high ground ball rate and a decent strikeout rate, those walks are going to cost you in the long run. He should be avoided tonight against the Mets, who have sneaky power against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Chatwood in all formats.

Zack Wheeler
zack-wheeler-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 17 4.64 5.21 21.0% 10.4% 47.5% 32.8% 18.3%
2018 9 3.92 5.40 23.6% 8.4% 47.6% 32.2% 23.0%
L14 2 2.86 3.75 28.9% 3.9% 44.1% 42.9% 25.7%

Wheeler has had a roller coaster type of season, but he has been sharp in his last two starts — 2.86 SIERA with a strikeout rate 29% and a walk rate of 4%. These are certainly enticing numbers, but a matchup against the Cubs is far from it. Chicago’s projected lineup has a .332 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 19% against right-handed pitching. Wheeler’s biggest weakness has always been left-handed hitters and he’ll have to face at least five of them tonight against the Cubs.

Quick Breakdown: We rarely see a game in this ballpark with the total set at 9.0 runs. I’ll pass on both starters.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have one of the easiest matchups on the board to break down. Zack Wheeler has held right-handed hitters to a .313 xwOBA, a 24% hard contact rate, and a 52% ground ball rate. It’s a completely different story against lefties though, as he has allowed a .371 xwOBA, a 46% hard contact rate, and a 40% ground ball rate. Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward (who has hit the ball well this season), Anthony Rizzo, and Kyle Schwarber are all viable tonight, even in this pitcher-friendly ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.371 0.381 0.185 33.8% 14.8% 11.1% 46.3% OF $2,900 2B/OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,400
2 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.396 0.339 0.165 37.4% 10.6% 7.1% 35.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 RF $6,700
3 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.393 0.340 0.159 36.5% 12.9% 17.4% 38.3% 3B $4,400 3B $5,100 IF/OF $9,300
4 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.392 0.419 0.185 35.6% 11.5% 9.0% 35.6% 1B $4,000 1B $4,800 1B $9,000
5 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.342 0.330 0.196 28.6% 7.0% 17.2% 48.2% C $3,100 C $4,200 IF/OF $7,400
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.376 0.369 0.291 40.7% 16.4% 23.7% 48.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 IF/OF $9,300
7 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.324 0.414 0.271 36.0% 16.5% 40.0% 26.0% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,500
8 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.280 0.304 0.065 33.7% 10.7% 22.9% 37.8% SS $3,200 SS $3,100 SS $5,800
9 Tyler Chatwood RIGHT 0.115 0.353 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 23.1% 71.4% P $5,900 P $7,500 P $14,500

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Rizzo (GPP), Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

The Mets are always a sneaky stack when facing a hittable right-handed pitcher. Their projected lineup has a .344 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 18% against righties this season and very few have seemed to notice. Tyler Chatwood has a high ground ball rate, but has still allowed a .388 xwOBA with a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Let’s not forget about the 20% walk rate either, as it should help the Mets get plenty of runners into scoring position. Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Michael Conforto, and Jay Bruce all bat from the left side and all boast a .355+ xwOBA against righties this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.448 0.398 0.329 41.8% 15.6% 16.5% 25.8% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 LF $7,700
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.400 0.411 0.243 47.5% 5.1% 17.8% 36.1% 2B $3,600 2B $4,000 SS $7,300
3 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.355 0.372 0.170 28.6% 16.3% 20.7% 39.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 LF $7,700
4 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.378 0.335 0.142 34.3% 11.2% 16.8% 31.4% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,600
5 Kevin Plawecki RIGHT 0.349 0.343 0.043 33.3% 21.9% 15.6% 66.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,800
6 Adrian Gonzalez LEFT 0.389 0.321 0.172 43.0% 9.1% 15.4% 39.6% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 1B $6,600
7 Luis Guillorme LEFT 0.312 0.297 0.042 31.8% 7.7% 7.7% 54.5% 3B $2,000 2B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400
8 Zack Wheeler RIGHT 0.165 0.236 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 30.0% 33.3% P $7,000 P $6,000 P $11,700
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.296 0.321 0.106 28.0% 2.9% 20.0% 50.5% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,800

Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Michael Conforto (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Michael Conforto (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Toronto at Detroit – 7:10 PM ET

Toronto Detroit
torontomlb Jaime Garcia detroitmlb Blaine Hardy
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-111 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.368 0.354 35.9% 5.7% 18.9% 32.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.283 0.295 42.1% 3.9% 19.2% 21.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.370 0.339 38.8% 11.9% 21.9% 43.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.297 0.250 29.3% 5.4% 21.4% 25.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jaime Garcia
jaime-garcia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $5,200 Salary: $10,100
Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29 Salary Rank: 24 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 27 4.54 4.41 19.2% 9.5% 54.8% 30.5% 20.7%
2018 9 4.56 5.52 21.1% 10.3% 40.3% 38.0% 15.3%
L14 1 3.56 1.29 19.2% 0.0% 50.0% 23.8% 19.1%

I like to compare Garcia to a professional golfer. If you have ever played DFS golf, you know how important form is when entering a tournament. Garcia isn’t a pitcher that just finds it, we typically see positive signs and then the results follow. We could be seeing an uptick, as he has been sharp in his last two starts. The problem is a matchup against the Tigers on the road. Detroit will likely have eight or nine right-handed hitters in their lineup and they have actually hit southpaws fairly well this season.

Quick Breakdown: If Garcia pitches well again tonight, we can fire him up in his next start.

Blaine Hardy
blaine-hardy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,300 Salary: $13,100
Salary Rank: 21 of 29 Salary Rank: 17 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.66 5.94 18.0% 8.3% 33.0% 36.5% 20.0%
2018 3 4.23 2.70 20.7% 4.9% 24.1% 33.3% 16.7%
L14 2 3.80 2.25 21.7% 2.2% 29.4% 34.3% 14.3%

Hardy pitched well in the minors, was called up, and has pitched well so far in the majors. While there are some encouraging signs, there are more red flags than positives at the moment. We’ll start with his ground ball (24%) and hard contact (33%). Eventually, those numbers are going to lead to more earned runs. He has yet to throw more than 85 pitches in any outing, so he’s not likely to throw 90+ tonight. And finally, he’s facing a right-handed heavy Blue Jays’ lineup that has a .369 xwOBA against lefties this season.

Quick Breakdown: Hardy offers more risk than upside.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays don’t have the best matchup on paper, but they are facing an inexperienced lefty in a game that features a high total. They are playing on the road, which guarantees ninth-inning at-bats and on the season, they have been very good against southpaws. I won’t go as far as saying they are one of the best stacks in a 15-game slate, but there are some intriguing plays here. Teoscar Hernandez, Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak, and Russell Martin all bat from the right side and all boast a .345+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.396 0.321 0.241 36.6% 7.9% 27.0% 43.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,000 CF $7,600
2 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.301 0.283 0.172 39.6% 4.3% 18.6% 35.8% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 CF $7,700
3 Yangervis Solarte SWITCH 0.368 0.319 0.243 31.8% 8.4% 10.8% 36.4% SS $3,200 2B/3B $3,900 2B $7,200
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.346 0.406 0.152 26.0% 10.4% 22.1% 52.0% 1B $3,300 1B $4,000 1B $7,300
5 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.362 0.313 0.036 30.0% 19.4% 22.2% 60.0% C $2,000 C $2,900 C $5,900
6 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.299 0.554 0.108 39.3% 9.5% 23.8% 50.0% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 1B $6,600
7 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.376 0.245 0.333 38.9% 0.0% 14.3% 44.4% 2B $2,200 2B $3,100 2B $5,800
8 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.343 0.238 0.233 42.9% 9.1% 27.3% 33.3% C $2,000 C $3,300 C $5,500
9 Gio Urshela RIGHT 0.529 0.263 0.375 50.0% 10.0% 20.0% 66.7% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 3B $4,600

Elite Plays – Teoscar Hernandez

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

Detroit

Historically, Jaime Garcia has had a strikeout rate near the major league average to go along with an elite ground ball rate. While that hasn’t been the case this season, his last two starts have been much better. I have mixed feelings on the Tigers tonight, as they have plenty of right-handed hitters to throw at Garcia. Generally, when I have mixed feelings about a matchup in such a large slate, I avoid both sides. Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, and James McCann are all viable in tournaments, but secondary options in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.395 0.390 0.194 42.3% 11.4% 14.3% 46.2% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,700 1B $7,500
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.420 0.354 0.185 47.7% 8.3% 16.7% 31.8% OF $3,800 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,500
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.375 0.136 55.6% 12.0% 16.0% 44.4% 1B $3,400 1B $4,400 1B $8,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.341 0.385 0.152 29.3% 6.1% 10.2% 48.8% C $2,500 1B $3,000 1B $6,000
5 James McCann RIGHT 0.485 0.342 0.250 48.6% 10.2% 18.4% 40.0% C $2,500 C $2,900 C $5,900
6 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.268 0.312 0.082 50.0% 3.7% 24.1% 47.2% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800
7 Ronny Rodriguez RIGHT 0.424 0.318 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% SS $2,000 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,900
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.333 0.290 0.229 26.5% 5.0% 7.5% 36.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,000 SS $5,400
9 Dixon Machado RIGHT 0.306 0.259 0.083 46.7% 2.6% 15.8% 48.3% 2B $2,300 2B $2,700 SS $5,500

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Niko Goodrum, Nick Castellanos, Miguel Cabrera, James McCann (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Washington Atlanta
washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg atlantamlb Mike Foltynewicz
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-121 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.316 26.9% 7.7% 23.9% 48.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.331 33.3% 14.6% 26.9% 36.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.339 40.0% 5.2% 34.1% 38.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.265 0.298 33.8% 8.0% 27.2% 43.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $12,100 Salary: $23,100
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 3.37 2.52 29.1% 6.7% 46.8% 27.3% 21.4%
2018 11 3.18 3.13 28.6% 6.6% 43.7% 32.6% 20.1%
L14 2 3.77 2.31 30.6% 12.2% 30.8% 48.2% 11.1%

Strasburg is one of the most talented pitchers to take the mound tonight. He’s having another great year, posting a 3.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 29% and a walk rate of 7%. Outside of Freddie Freeman, Strasburg has had plenty of success against this Braves’ roster and their offense has cooled off a bit over the last couple of weeks. All of the lefties in Atlanta’s lineup are typically a downgrade for right-handed pitchers, but Strasburg has always fared well against batters from that side of the plate. With Gerrit Cole and Chris Sale squaring off against each other, there isn’t a clear ace of the slate. I actually prefer Strasburg over both.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t a slate where we have to pay up for pitching, but Strasburg is my favorite of the three elites.

Mike Foltynewicz
michael-foltynewicz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,600 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,400
Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8%
2018 11 3.98 2.55 27.1% 11.4% 39.6% 33.6% 20.0%
L14 2 4.18 1.38 23.5% 9.8% 38.2% 23.5% 26.5%

Foltynewicz is finally putting that high fastball velocity to good use. In his 11 starts this season, he has a SIERA under four with a strikeout rate of 27%. The walks have been an issue, but he’s certainly had a better year overall. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Nationals, whose lineup is loaded at the top. The bottom of the order isn’t great, but the likes of Juan Soto, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams, and Anthony Rendon are more than enough to warrant a fade of Foltynewicz.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Foltynewicz in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals draw a decent matchup against Mike Foltynewicz. The right-handed hitters are easy fades though, as Foltynewicz has held righties to .298 xwOBA this season. In addition to this being a ballpark that favors lefties, Foltynewicz has allowed a .331 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, and Matt Adams all bat from the left side and all boast a .370+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Juan Soto LEFT 0.371 0.405 0.087 50.0% 8.0% 28.0% 25.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 LF $7,700
2 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.358 0.373 0.145 38.2% 11.1% 20.0% 53.3% SS $4,100 SS $4,600 IF/OF $9,100
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.455 0.331 0.368 46.9% 21.0% 18.5% 34.7% OF $5,300 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.393 0.426 0.224 35.3% 10.9% 11.8% 34.5% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,400
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.413 0.244 0.345 43.5% 11.9% 19.8% 31.8% 1B $3,900 1B/OF $4,000 1B $7,400
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.284 0.290 0.120 31.2% 10.1% 27.0% 51.1% OF $3,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,400
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.309 0.318 0.106 17.1% 12.3% 15.6% 48.8% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,300 2B $6,700
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.276 0.232 0.066 23.3% 11.2% 18.0% 41.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,900
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.271 0.148 0.000 31.3% 4.8% 19.0% 76.9% P $10,300 P $12,100 P $23,100

Elite Plays – Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves have one of the worst matchups of the slate. On the season, Stephen Strasburg has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA. The one hitter that should be on your radar is Freddie Freeman, who has some tremendous BvP numbers against Strasburg in his career — 15-for-42 with four home runs, four doubles, and seven walks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.296 0.307 0.133 28.4% 7.2% 14.4% 45.6% OF $2,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,300
2 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.323 0.311 0.233 32.1% 6.4% 19.7% 35.6% 2B $3,800 2B $5,100 2B $10,100
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.445 0.369 0.173 46.1% 16.6% 14.8% 31.3% 1B $4,200 1B $5,000 1B $10,300
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.392 0.304 0.154 32.6% 11.5% 6.7% 42.2% OF $3,300 OF $4,000 RF $7,200
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.321 0.327 0.188 37.9% 5.3% 7.9% 33.7% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,600
6 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.419 0.435 0.262 52.1% 23.2% 15.9% 47.9% 3B $2,500 3B/SS $3,100 SS $5,800
7 Preston Tucker LEFT 0.300 0.246 0.172 38.5% 5.4% 24.7% 45.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,300 LF $6,500
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.277 0.190 0.115 26.7% 6.4% 29.1% 47.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,200 SS $6,700
9 Mike Foltynewicz RIGHT 0.062 0.000 0.063 33.3% 0.0% 64.7% 50.0% P $8,600 P $8,400 P $16,400

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (Cash)

Stackability – RED

Boston at Houston – 8:10 PM ET

Boston Houston
bostonmlb Chris Sale houstonmlb Gerrit Cole
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-121 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.271 0.261 25.9% 4.3% 34.0% 44.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.246 0.244 29.0% 6.8% 45.5% 29.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.274 28.2% 7.1% 34.9% 39.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.229 0.287 36.9% 6.9% 33.8% 35.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Chris Sale
chris-sale-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,000 Salary: $11,000 Salary: $21,300
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 12 2.64 2.76 34.8% 6.7% 39.8% 27.8% 28.4%
L14 2 3.10 5.25 34.0% 10.0% 32.0% 33.3% 29.6%

Sale continues to dominate any team the MLB schedule throws his way. In 12 starts this season, he has a 2.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 35%. While I expect him to have another solid outing tonight, I don’t love his chances to pay off his hefty salary in a matchup against the Astros. Houston’s projected lineup has a .356 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 22% against right-handed pitching this season. Run support could also be limited with Gerrit Cole pitching opposite him.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is typically an auto-play in DFS and while I’ll have some shares, I will be even with the field in terms of ownership.

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,400 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.97 4.26 23.1% 6.5% 45.8% 31.3% 23.9%
2018 11 2.26 2.05 39.4% 6.9% 32.9% 33.6% 17.1%
L14 2 3.25 3.46 32.7% 10.2% 46.2% 22.2% 18.5%

Cole has cooled off a little since his blazing start, but still owns a 2.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 39% on the season. Similar to Chris Sale, the only downside is his matchup and his potential run support. The Red Sox projected lineup has a .389 xwOBA with a strikeout rate of only 16% against right-handed pitching this season. My interest in Cole will likely hinge on the availability of Mookie Betts. If he’s in the lineup, I’ll likely fade Cole in all formats. If he is out again, I’ll have some shares of Cole in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: While this is a difficult matchup, Cole is viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

We have two of the best pitchers and two of the best offenses squaring off tonight. I tend to side with great pitching over great hitting and in a 15-game slate, why take the risk on any batter from this game? In addition to having an elite strikeout rate, Gerrit Cole has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.517 0.454 0.365 49.6% 11.9% 13.1% 30.8% OF $5,200 OF $5,400 RF $10,800
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.389 0.472 0.244 28.2% 12.8% 11.7% 33.1% OF $4,600 OF $4,600 LF $9,200
3 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.489 0.489 0.399 51.2% 9.8% 21.7% 44.8% OF $4,900 OF $4,900 RF $9,100
4 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.458 0.389 0.337 39.2% 10.0% 18.2% 40.5% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 1B $7,500
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.388 0.383 0.264 38.8% 2.2% 19.9% 44.1% SS $3,800 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
6 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.316 0.292 0.000 12.5% 11.1% 0.0% 50.0% 2B $3,400 2B $3,500 2B $6,400
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.341 0.316 0.179 39.5% 8.4% 25.1% 44.9% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,700
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.261 0.291 0.028 20.9% 2.7% 14.2% 42.2% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.341 0.348 0.147 34.9% 11.1% 23.0% 45.3% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 CF $5,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Houston

The Astros are in the same boat as the Red Sox. While there is always something to gaining leverage on the field with low-owned plays, there are better ways to accomplish that in tonight’s slate. Chris Sale has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .275 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.389 0.305 0.305 34.8% 7.5% 22.4% 50.0% OF $3,900 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.376 0.416 0.130 35.4% 15.4% 9.2% 31.3% 3B $3,700 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.389 0.437 0.086 40.8% 4.8% 15.9% 26.5% 2B $4,200 2B $4,700 2B $9,400
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.391 0.270 0.178 35.3% 17.9% 21.4% 35.3% SS $3,600 SS $4,200 SS $8,400
5 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.358 0.280 0.122 35.7% 3.9% 13.7% 35.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
6 Evan Gattis RIGHT 0.350 0.445 0.255 32.6% 5.4% 16.1% 41.9% C $2,500 C $3,600 C $7,300
7 J.D. Davis RIGHT 0.286 0.422 0.000 50.0% 23.1% 30.8% 66.7% 1B $2,100 1B $3,300 3B $6,600
8 Max Stassi RIGHT 0.421 0.336 0.281 56.0% 2.9% 20.0% 48.0% C $2,600 C $3,500 C $6,400
9 Jake Marisnick RIGHT 0.246 0.232 0.171 25.0% 0.0% 51.2% 21.1% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious