MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 30th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-05-01 03:05:44

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Texas								Cleveland
			Cole Hamels							Trevor Bauer
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-185							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.237	0.301	29.5%	4.1%	17.6%	58.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.330	31.8%	8.3%	24.5%	43.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.348	39.9%	9.7%	19.0%	43.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.305	0.309	35.9%	8.0%	27.2%	48.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		9 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	24	4.90	4.20	17.1%	8.6%	47.5%	35.7%	13.7%
	2018	6	3.76	4.41	25.3%	8.4%	41.8%	45.9%	15.3%

Thanks to the overlap in scheduling between the Cavaliers and the Indians, we have another early start in Cleveland. This is the only early game on the schedule and it is only included in the all-day slate on FanDuel. Hamels has outperformed expectations in his first six starts of the season, posting a 3.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. We can look at Hamels two ways — either last year was the outlier and he’s back to being the pitcher he always was, or his first six starts are smoke and mirrors. I’m not sure where I stand just yet, but a matchup against the Indians makes Hamels an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Cleveland has power, they draw walks, and they have a low strikeout rate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Bauer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		1 of 22	Salary Rank:		of 22	Salary Rank:
	2017	31	3.80	4.19	26.2%	8.0%	46.4%	34.4%	15.0%
	2018	5	3.93	2.41	24.5%	9.1%	43.8%	31.1%	18.9%

Bauer has pitched very well this season. His 2.41 ERA may not be sustainable, but he still owns a 3.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25%. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Rangers. On the one hand, they have plenty of firepower in their lineup. On the other hand, they strikeout at a high rate — eight of their projected starters have a strikeout rate of at least 20% against right-handed pitching. I’m always willing to chase strikeout upside, even if it comes with a little risk. If you are playing in the all-day slate, Bauer deserves consideration as one of the top pitching options of the slate.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is viable as an SP1 in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Texas

The Rangers have been an inconsistent offense this season. That is going to happen when you have a lot of batters that strikeout at a high rate. They come into tonight’s game as sizable underdogs on the road in a game that features an over/under of 8.5 runs. This is far from an ideal matchup, as Trevor Bauer boasts an above-average strikeout rate. Over the last two seasons, he has held right-handed hitters to a .309 xwOBA, while allowing a .330 xwOBA to lefties. Shin-Soo Choo and Joey Gallo are viable one-off targets here, but the rest of the Rangers can be avoided.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.260	0.198	0.065	24.7%	9.4%	22.8%	49.0%	OF	$2,800	N/A	N/A
2	Shin-soo Choo	LEFT	0.382	0.342	0.197	40.3%	11.7%	22.0%	45.8%	OF	$3,600	N/A	N/A
3	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.299	0.323	0.039	24.7%	13.2%	19.0%	36.7%	SS	$3,100	N/A	N/A
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.337	0.324	0.180	35.3%	9.4%	20.5%	43.6%	OF	$2,900	N/A	N/A
5	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.379	0.475	0.332	45.8%	13.7%	34.2%	30.0%	1B	$3,600	N/A	N/A
6	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	RIGHT	0.283	0.269	0.122	46.7%	2.4%	26.2%	41.4%	2B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.223	0.244	0.206	33.3%	5.6%	27.8%	33.3%	1B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.334	0.407	0.243	37.7%	9.4%	28.9%	39.4%	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
9	Drew Robinson	LEFT	0.285	0.214	0.157	34.7%	12.5%	40.6%	45.9%	SS	$2,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

The Indians draw a decent matchup against Cole Hamels, but it depends on which splits you want to look at. If we look at the 2017 version of Hamels, this is a great spot for Cleveland. But if we are buying into the 2018 version of Hamels, it’s not quite as enticing. Either way, we should avoid the left-handed hitters here, as Hamels has held them to a .301 xwOBA with a massive 58% ground ball rate since the beginning of last season. During that same time frame, he has given up a .348 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to righties. Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, and Edwin Encarnacion are the top targets here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.372	0.382	0.217	40.5%	8.4%	12.8%	38.1%	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.306	0.296	0.130	27.2%	9.3%	18.6%	42.0%	2B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.363	0.399	0.244	36.6%	6.6%	10.2%	40.3%	3B	$4,100	N/A	N/A
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.388	0.333	0.201	36.6%	19.0%	21.9%	43.0%	1B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
5	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.369	0.422	0.081	25.0%	4.1%	11.7%	50.0%	OF	$3,500	N/A	N/A
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.387	0.416	0.235	37.5%	7.4%	24.1%	38.9%	1B	$3,500	N/A	N/A
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.278	0.406	0.254	39.5%	9.4%	26.6%	41.2%	C	$2,900	N/A	N/A
8	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.277	0.303	0.127	21.9%	7.2%	21.1%	42.3%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Rajai Davis	RIGHT	0.259	0.256	0.112	24.3%	8.2%	18.5%	43.4%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Chicago Cubs – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Chicago Cubs
			Kyle Freeland							Jon Lester
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-180							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.284	32.2%	6.6%	29.7%	34.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.236	0.250	26.4%	3.6%	31.8%	53.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.344	0.329	31.0%	10.0%	12.6%	57.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.343	0.336	28.8%	9.2%	20.5%	43.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Freeland
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$12,200
	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		14 of 22	Salary Rank:		13 of 22
	2017	28	4.93	4.10	15.6%	9.2%	53.9%	32.0%	24.3%
	2018	5	4.31	4.33	21.7%	9.6%	46.1%	26.6%	24.1%

Freeland doesn’t have a single red box in his pitching table above (at least not for this season). Through five stars, he boasts a 4.31 SIERA with a 22% strikeout rate. He’s done a tremendous job of inducing soft and medium contact. He’s going to need all of that and potentially more tonight if he wants to succeed against the Cubs. Not only is this one of the worst matchups of the slate, but the wind is blowing out to left field at 15+ MPH. This is also the warmest weather (low 70s) that we have seen in Chicago in quite some time.

Quick Breakdown: Freeland has a bad matchup and is playing in conditions suited for run production.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		6 of 22	Salary Rank:		6 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%
	2018	5	4.54	3.29	19.1%	8.7%	40.0%	29.6%	18.5%

Lester is one of the more polarizing plays of this slate. I have yet to target him this season, as his numbers are all trending in the wrong direction. In five starts, he has a 4.54 SIERA with a 19% strikeout rate and a 9% walk rate. All three of those statistics are worse than they were last season. To make matters worse, we have warm weather in Chicago with the wind blowing out to left field. The argument for Lester is that he’s a large favorite, he’s pitching at home, and the Rockies have a massive 30% strikeout rate in their projected lineup.

Quick Breakdown: This could either be a really good or a really bad start from Lester. For that reason, I would only use him in a tournament setting.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Even though we have ideal hitting conditions in Wrigley, I prefer to target the individual hitters from Colorado rather than a complete stack. Jon Lester hasn’t been great this season, but he is still very tough on left-handed hitters, which limits the appeal of Charlie Blackmon and David Dahl. There are four hitters in particular that I like from this Rockies’ lineup — DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Chris Iannetta. All four are borderline elite one-off targets against Lester.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.411	0.386	0.212	37.2%	10.6%	9.7%	54.4%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,200
2	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.382	0.369	0.234	34.2%	7.1%	16.8%	49.5%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,400	CF	$10,700
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.346	0.498	0.408	39.2%	10.9%	10.4%	24.7%	3B	$4,300	3B	$5,000	3B	$9,800
4	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.284	0.362	0.357	49.0%	12.0%	34.6%	28.4%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,400
5	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.335	0.260	0.231	32.1%	14.2%	21.3%	46.9%	C	$2,400	C	$2,900	C	$5,800
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.248	0.281	0.160	27.8%	6.5%	21.7%	66.0%	1B	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,500	LF	$6,900
7	David Dahl	LEFT	0.396	0.265	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	71.4%	50.0%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	LF	$7,600
8	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.313	0.250	0.098	26.2%	4.5%	17.2%	47.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,000	LF	$5,800
9	Kyle Freeland	LEFT	0.146	0.013	0.000	37.5%	0.0%	65.2%	100.0%	P	$6,300	P	$5,900	P	$12,200

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta (DK)

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Wrigley Field is the ballpark that is most affected by wind in the major leagues. When the wind is blowing in, it turns into a pitcher’s park. When the wind is blowing out (especially when it’s warm), it turns into a hitter’s park. We have the latter tonight, as there are 15+ MPH winds blowing out to left field throughout the game. Kyle Freeland splits are intriguing, while he has been tough on left-handed hitters, his ground ball rate is 23% higher against right-handed hitters. Typically, the higher the ground ball rate, the better a pitcher is against that specific handedness. Regardless, batters from both sides of the plate are viable and I will be stacking the Cubs in tournaments. Javier Baez and Kris Bryant stand out as the two best plays, as both players boast a .225+ ISO and a 37%+ hard contact rate against southpaws.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.366	0.288	0.178	29.5%	11.0%	12.3%	44.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,700
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.304	0.366	0.247	39.8%	7.0%	24.7%	44.3%	2B	$4,200	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,100
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.369	0.399	0.226	37.0%	18.2%	15.5%	35.3%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,100
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.407	0.341	0.222	32.9%	9.5%	15.6%	42.5%	1B	$3,800	1B	$3,600	1B	$7,400
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.324	0.310	0.237	36.2%	14.7%	17.3%	51.0%	C	$3,200	C	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,200
6	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.339	0.279	0.207	29.4%	4.6%	29.2%	35.7%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.290	0.209	0.176	30.9%	12.7%	21.4%	40.7%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,500
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.349	0.428	0.088	23.6%	4.2%	21.7%	45.7%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,700
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.236	0.243	0.143	8.3%	7.7%	46.2%	66.7%	P	$8,300	P	$8,000	P	$14,900

Elite Plays – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Albert Almora, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Pittsburgh								Washington
			Jameson Taillon							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-110							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.338	27.2%	9.5%	16.0%	50.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.353	0.347	31.9%	9.8%	19.0%	41.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.280	31.6%	6.0%	26.3%	46.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.259	0.290	24.8%	6.7%	24.3%	53.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,900
	Salary Rank:		5 of 22	Salary Rank:		5 of 22	Salary Rank:		5 of 22
	2017	25	4.24	4.44	21.3%	7.8%	47.3%	29.6%	22.1%
	2018	5	3.56	4.91	22.2%	6.5%	54.8%	28.0%	21.3%

Taillon has a significantly higher ERA this season, but the rest of his numbers are actually better than they were in 2017. In five starts, he has a 3.56 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22% and a ground ball rate of 55%. If you have read the Grind Down in the past, then you know that I love pitchers with the lethal combination of a high strikeout rate and a high ground ball rate. Taillon’s matchup against the Nationals is decent, at least at this point in time. Washington is missing a few of their best hitters. Their projected lineup has a .314 xwOBA and a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Taillon is on the road, he’s viable as an SP2 in tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		7 of 22	Salary Rank:		6 of 22
	2017	30	4.31	4.67	21.4%	8.3%	48.2%	27.8%	16.7%
	2018	5	4.17	3.77	22.6%	8.9%	38.6%	33.7%	24.1%

Roark continues to produce night in and night out. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he has a slightly above-average strikeout rate and he induces a lot of soft and medium contact. He’s also a pitcher that rarely gets blown up, so we can typically count on him to pitch six or seven innings. The issue tonight is his matchup against the Pirates. They have one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball against right-handed pitching and they currently have five left-handed hitters in their projected lineup. Since the start of last season, Roark has allowed a .347 xwOBA to lefties.

Quick Breakdown: As of now, Roark looks like a fade. If the Pirates roll out a right-handed heavy lineup (which I don’t expect to be the case), he’ll become viable in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

As mentioned above, Tanner Roark has allowed a .347 xwOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. While that bodes well for the Pirates, I’m not in love with this offense. They are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. One of the trade-offs of being a low-strikeout offense is the lack of power that comes with it. I certainly don’t hate the idea of using Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, or Josh Bell, but they are better lineup fillers than lineup starters in tonight’s ten-game slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.328	0.239	0.134	28.4%	8.0%	12.3%	49.1%	OF	$2,500	2B/OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,400
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.336	0.305	0.176	29.8%	8.7%	14.0%	39.1%	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,700
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.330	0.312	0.140	26.0%	7.3%	17.5%	46.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,400
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.327	0.237	0.198	32.4%	10.6%	20.1%	51.7%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,500
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.334	0.302	0.212	33.8%	5.9%	21.8%	36.7%	OF	$3,600	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,900
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.342	0.402	0.142	33.5%	10.6%	19.5%	46.8%	C	$2,800	C	$3,300	C	$6,500
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.379	0.297	0.169	40.7%	8.9%	16.5%	37.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,000	3B	$5,700
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.299	0.270	0.145	27.5%	9.2%	16.1%	46.6%	SS	$2,600	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,500
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.128	0.146	0.000	8.7%	0.0%	39.5%	82.4%	P	$8,600	P	$8,100	P	$15,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Jameson Taillon is not a pitcher that I like to target hitters against. As mentioned above, he has an above-average ground ball rate and an above-average strikeout rate. This clearly isn’t ideal for the opposing offense and that’s evident in his splits against both left and right-handed hitters. While I won’t have much exposure to the Nationals, there is one player in particular that I have my eye on. Trea Turner is a stolen base threat every time he reaches base. The one weakness is Taillon’s game is his inability to hold runners. The only pitcher with a higher successful stolen base rate in this slate is Brandon Finnegan.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.328	0.348	0.177	29.6%	7.7%	18.5%	51.6%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,100
2	Howie Kendrick	RIGHT	0.314	0.348	0.161	30.4%	4.7%	20.9%	60.4%	2B	$3,100	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,300
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.435	0.408	0.342	36.3%	18.4%	16.6%	37.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	RF	$10,200
4	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.381	0.405	0.243	41.0%	6.9%	23.9%	45.7%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300
5	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.368	0.423	0.267	39.9%	8.0%	24.6%	35.6%	1B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,400	1B	$6,300
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.294	0.339	0.193	32.9%	8.1%	31.6%	43.2%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.306	0.382	0.123	29.1%	8.4%	18.0%	40.9%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,900
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.271	0.229	0.066	19.9%	8.0%	20.4%	53.2%	2B	$2,100	2B/3B	$2,600	2B	$4,900
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.128	0.204	0.019	15.4%	1.7%	33.3%	80.6%	P	$8,100	P	$7,700	P	$15,400

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Boston
			Jason Hammel							Eduardo Rodriguez
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-240							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.322	0.345	32.6%	6.5%	17.9%	34.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.325	0.320	31.1%	8.0%	30.4%	31.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.316	0.349	32.3%	5.6%	16.7%	43.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.304	30.1%	8.7%	24.5%	38.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jason Hammel
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$5,200	Salary:		$10,000
	Salary Rank:		15 of 22	Salary Rank:		17 of 22	Salary Rank:		17 of 22
	2017	32	4.65	5.29	18.0%	6.0%	38.0%	31.6%	16.6%
	2018	5	5.02	3.38	12.8%	6.8%	44.9%	37.4%	12.2%

Hammel has yet to find himself on my radar this season. In five starts, he has a 5.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. That’s not going to get the job done in daily fantasy baseball. We want pitchers that limit run production and strike batters out. Hammel isn’t particularly effective at either. To make matters worse, he’s facing the Red Sox in Fenway Park.

Quick Breakdown: Anything can happen in baseball, but I’d be shocked if Hammel pitched well tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eduardo Rodriguez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$14,500
	Salary Rank:		10 of 22	Salary Rank:		8 of 22	Salary Rank:		9 of 22
	2017	24	4.05	4.19	25.8%	8.6%	34.9%	30.8%	18.6%
	2018	4	3.84	3.63	24.5%	8.5%	49.2%	27.0%	19.1%

Rodriguez is the pound-for-pound best pitching option of the slate. I take that back, I’m not exactly sure how much he weighs in comparison to the other pitchers taking the mound, but he is the best point-per-dollar pitching option on the board. In four starts this season, he owns a 3.84 SIERA with a 25% strikeout rate and an impressive 27% hard contact rate. It’s always a little scary targeting a fly-ball pitcher in Fenway Park, but it’s not like the Royals hit a lot of home runs. Their projected lineup has a .156 ISO and a 21% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At a price of only $7,400 on FanDuel and $7,600 on DraftKings, E-Rod is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

If you want to fade Eduardo Rodriguez in tournaments and are looking to gain some leverage on the field, targeting a hitter or two from the Royals isn’t the worst plan of action. Whit Merrifield, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez, Lucas Duda, and Jorge Soler all have good numbers against left-handed pitching. The lefty/lefty matchup for Moustakas and Duda seem scary, but Rodriguez has actually allowed a higher xwOBA to lefties (.320) than he has to righties (.304) over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.355	0.318	0.232	35.4%	6.7%	15.2%	37.6%	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,400
2	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.378	0.452	0.188	31.1%	3.0%	16.1%	41.9%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,400	3B	$8,300
3	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.340	0.415	0.239	41.4%	4.1%	20.3%	32.4%	C	$3,300	C	$3,500	C	$6,400
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.382	0.376	0.194	35.8%	5.7%	35.0%	39.5%	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,500
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.271	0.437	0.228	50.0%	13.4%	26.9%	40.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,600
6	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.301	0.240	0.110	28.9%	5.1%	26.9%	48.1%	1B	$2,300	1B/3B	$2,700	3B	$5,500
7	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.325	0.283	0.019	19.1%	13.3%	19.5%	52.5%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,600
8	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.290	0.374	0.050	21.7%	10.1%	16.9%	49.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,400
9	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.273	0.375	0.148	32.3%	4.9%	16.0%	40.3%	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield (GPP), Mike Moustakas (GPP), Salvador Perez (GPP), Lucas Duda (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

The Red Sox may end up being the chalkiest stack of the evening, although the Cubs will probably be up there as well. Boston is playing at home in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball and they draw an exploitable matchup against Jason Hammel. In addition to his low strikeout rate and high fly-ball rate, Hammel has allowed a .345+ xwOBA and a 32%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons. The appeal of a complete Red Sox stack hinges on the availability of Mookie Betts. If he’s unable to suit up (hamstring injury), I’d rather just target a few pieces of this lineup rather than a full stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.366	0.520	0.216	38.5%	9.9%	11.9%	38.5%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,700	RF	$11,000
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.345	0.320	0.178	35.0%	10.5%	16.2%	38.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400	LF	$8,400
3	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.367	0.363	0.184	35.6%	8.0%	20.1%	41.0%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,400	1B	$8,500
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.421	0.421	0.340	50.2%	9.3%	27.3%	42.1%	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,100	RF	$10,000
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.295	0.158	0.150	32.1%	8.1%	18.9%	47.0%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	SS	$8,300
6	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.300	0.314	0.190	36.2%	6.9%	22.2%	47.0%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,100
7	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.269	0.265	0.159	25.3%	3.4%	11.8%	52.2%	SS	$3,000	2B/SS	$3,500	3B	$6,300
8	Jackie Bradley Jr.	LEFT	0.331	0.387	0.169	35.0%	8.9%	22.2%	44.9%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,300
9	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.293	0.247	0.094	25.8%	5.2%	18.6%	47.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,600

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (if active), Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Milwaukee								Cincinnati
			Jhoulys Chacin							Brandon Finnegan
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIL-107							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.359	34.1%	12.2%	14.7%	46.1%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.508	0.418	35.7%	14.3%	19.1%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.270	0.279	26.6%	7.1%	23.3%	51.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.349	28.3%	18.8%	21.8%	41.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jhoulys Chacin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$5,100	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:		17 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22	Salary Rank:		18 of 22
	2017	32	4.63	3.89	20.0%	9.4%	49.1%	28.5%	20.2%
	2018	6	5.26	3.99	14.1%	10.4%	46.5%	39.6%	18.8%

Chacin isn’t the worst pitcher in baseball, but he’s certainly trying to be. In six starts this season, he has a 5.26 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 10%. There will be a handful of times to target him this season, but he has to be facing a right-handed heavy lineup in a pitcher-friendly ballpark (very similar to Ivan Nova). He doesn’t meet either criteria tonight, as he’s facing the Reds in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.

Quick Breakdown: This one could get ugly in a hurry. Avoid Chacin in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Brandon Finnegan
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,400	Salary:		$11,100
	Salary Rank:		20 of 22	Salary Rank:		16 of 22	Salary Rank:		15 of 22
	2017	4	5.84	4.15	27.1%	22.0%	53.3%	23.3%	13.3%
	2018	3	5.76	8.03	15.9%	14.3%	34.1%	34.1%	18.2%

Finnegan has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball so far this season. In three starts, he has a 5.76 SIERA, a walk rate of 15%, and a hard contact rate (34%) that matches his ground ball rate. In other words, he has been the gassiest of gas cans. The bottom of the Brewers’ lineup can struggle at times, but the top is littered with right-handed power.

Quick Breakdown: In this ballpark (or any ballpark really), Finnegan is an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

The Brewers are one of the top stacks of the slate and there’s a decent chance that they carry less ownership than the Red Sox and Cubs. They are playing on the right, which is always nice because they are guaranteed ninth-inning at-bats, even if they are ahead. Milwaukee draws a terrific matchup against Brandon Finnegan and they are facing him in the home run-friendly Great American Ballpark. Batters from both sides of the plate are viable, as Finnegan has allowed a .418 xwOBA to lefties and a .349 xwOBA to righties over the last two seasons. Oh, I should also note that he’s allowed five stolen bases in his last seven starts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.356	0.383	0.216	37.9%	10.0%	12.4%	37.9%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	CF	$8,000
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.371	0.378	0.135	31.4%	6.7%	19.6%	57.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,300	CF	$8,200
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.330	0.380	0.274	47.6%	12.1%	9.8%	46.6%	OF	$3,300	1B/OF	$4,500	LF	$8,200
4	Travis Shaw	LEFT	0.374	0.452	0.187	28.2%	7.4%	26.3%	45.9%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,200
5	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.289	0.293	0.138	32.7%	3.7%	17.6%	46.7%	OF	$2,200	2B/OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,900
6	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.357	0.442	0.222	52.4%	10.5%	27.1%	39.0%	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,500
7	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.303	0.161	0.076	40.5%	4.4%	23.7%	35.4%	C	$2,200	C	$2,500	C	$5,000
8	Orlando Arcia	RIGHT	0.286	0.251	0.052	28.0%	8.8%	18.4%	55.7%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,700	SS	$5,500
9	Jhoulys Chacin	RIGHT	0.164	0.105	0.050	22.2%	0.0%	25.0%	42.9%	P	$5,900	P	$5,100	P	$9,900

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich or Domingo Santana (whichever one starts)

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds are equally as appealing as the Brewers tonight, which means we can stack either side or the game as a whole. Jhoulys Chacin has been tough on right-handed hitters, holding them to a .279 xwOBA on a 51% ground ball rate over the last two seasons. He really struggles against lefties though, allowing a .359 xwOBA and a 12% walk rate during that same time period. Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, and Scooter Gennett are all elite plays at their respective positions. It feels weird stacking the one, three, and five batters in a lineup, so don’t be afraid to complete the stack with Jose Peraza or Eugenio Suarez.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jesse Winker	LEFT	0.399	0.447	0.190	36.8%	14.8%	18.2%	48.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,700
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.285	0.279	0.071	21.9%	3.3%	13.6%	43.4%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,700
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.438	0.479	0.237	36.4%	18.5%	10.1%	36.9%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,400
4	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.360	0.340	0.196	31.3%	12.5%	22.9%	37.7%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,200	3B	$8,500
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.344	0.342	0.230	37.7%	6.5%	20.4%	39.7%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,600
6	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.294	0.455	0.204	32.0%	5.5%	27.2%	31.7%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,400
7	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.334	0.307	0.140	33.9%	10.3%	16.9%	42.7%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.359	0.423	0.268	39.9%	9.1%	23.5%	44.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,200
9	Brandon Finnegan	LEFT	0.300	0.296	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	11.1%	75.0%	P	$5,500	P	$5,400	P	$11,100

MLB Grind Down: Monday, April 30th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Texas at Cleveland – 6:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo

Stackability – ORANGE

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado at Chicago Cubs – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Chris Iannetta (DK)

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta (FD)

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Javier Baez, Kris Bryant

Secondary Plays – Albert Almora, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Addison Russell

Stackability – GREEN

Pittsburgh at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Trea Turner

Secondary Plays – Bryce Harper (GPP), Matt Adams (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Kansas City at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield (GPP), Mike Moustakas (GPP), Salvador Perez (GPP), Lucas Duda (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts (if active), Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Hanley Ramirez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun, Jesus Aguilar, Christian Yelich or Domingo Santana (whichever one starts)

Secondary Plays – Travis Shaw, Hernan Perez, Manny Pina

Stackability – GREEN

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jesse Winker, Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett

Secondary Plays – Jose Peraza, Eugenio Suarez, Tucker Barnhart, Scott Schebler

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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