MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 20th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2019-05-20 16:16:29

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	HC%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Atlanta			Pittsburgh
	Bryse Wilson				Chris Archer
	RIGHT				RIGHT
	Vegas Moneyline				Vegas Over/Under
	PIT-125				7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)		SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.345	0.353	38.6%	1.35	21.5%	45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)		SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.320	0.330	40.9%	0.85	26.8%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	ERA	K%	HC%	SC%	SwS%
Bryse Wilson
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:		Salary:	$4,000	Salary:	$8,000
	Salary Rank:	of 18	Salary Rank:	20 of 18	Salary Rank:	20 of 18

Kevin Gausman was scratched from tonight’s start, so Wilson will get the nod. This will be his major league debut and only his fourth start above the Triple-A level. In his 15 Double-A starts this season, he posted a 2.77 FIP with a strikeout rate of 27%. He’s one of the team’s top pitching prospects, so we can certainly keep an eye on him moving forward. As I do with most pitching debuts, I’ll take a wait and see approach.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Wilson in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Chris Archer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,900	Salary:			$7,800	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:			6 of 19	Salary Rank:			8 of 19	Salary Rank:		7 of 19
	2017	34	3.44	4.07	29.2%	7.0%	42.0%	39.4%	13.2%	95.5	13.4%
	2018	20	3.80	4.49	24.5%	7.7%	45.1%	39.9%	16.2%	94.7	13.3%
	L14	2	3.44	5.40	23.3%	4.7%	51.6%	35.5%	16.1%	95.3	9.8%

Archer hasn’t fared all that well in his first few starts with the Pirates, but his advanced numbers are still appealing. In his last two starts, he has a 3.44 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a walk rate of 5%. Much like Gausman, a move to the National League should only help Archer’s numbers moving forward. While this isn’t a great matchup, Archer at least gets to face the Braves at home in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Archer is far from a sure thing in this slate, but it’s not like we are paying a premium for him. He’s priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: I will continue to buy Archer at this price point. He’s more talented than the pitchers priced around him.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

The Braves have a talented offense, but they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they draw a difficult matchup against Chris Archer. He hasn’t been quite as sharp this season, allowing a .353 xwOBA and a 39% hard contact rate to righties, but he still owns an above-average strikeout rate. As you will soon see, there are plenty of exploitable matchups that we should have higher on our list of priorities tonight. Outside of a Freddie Freeman one-off, the Braves can be avoided in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.399	0.279	49.3%	6.5%	28.0%	39.9%	OF	$4,900	OF	$5,800	LF	$10,500
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.302	0.198	35.6%	4.6%	18.2%	36.8%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.422	0.185	44.7%	12.9%	17.0%	35.2%	1B	$4,100	1B	$5,000	1B	$9,700
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.393	0.173	41.6%	10.1%	9.3%	41.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,500	RF	$9,000
5	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.310	0.150	35.7%	11.6%	19.4%	50.0%	3B	$3,100	3B/SS	$4,100	3B	$8,400
6	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.292	0.128	28.7%	6.9%	12.8%	44.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
7	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.327	0.149	37.2%	5.2%	9.0%	33.5%	C	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,200
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.271	0.141	33.2%	6.7%	23.6%	43.9%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,600	SS	$7,600
9	Kevin Gausman	RIGHT	0.260	0.000	0.0%	20.0%	30.0%	80.0%	P	$7,500	P	$7,100	P	$13,600
	Team Averages		0.331	0.156	34.0%	9.4%	18.6%	45.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Pittsburgh

The Pirates weren’t really on my radar when they were scheduled to face Kevin Gausman, but now they are going to face rookie Bryse Wilson, who is making his major league debut. He’s flashed some upside in the minors, but the majors are a different animal. A Pirates’ stack is certainly viable, as their offense is filled with high-contact batters that hit right-handed pitching well.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.368	0.206	37.6%	4.0%	11.7%	34.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,200
2	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.336	0.188	34.3%	4.8%	18.8%	46.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,400
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.370	0.260	36.4%	12.1%	23.0%	33.2%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,400
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.344	0.133	30.2%	11.9%	16.5%	51.1%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,400
5	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.379	0.216	35.7%	12.7%	21.5%	38.1%	C	$3,000	C	$4,100	C	$8,300
6	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.348	0.129	31.5%	8.0%	16.0%	43.6%	3B	$2,200	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,600
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.273	0.086	28.3%	3.7%	17.0%	37.0%	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,500
8	Adeiny Hechavarria	RIGHT	0.291	0.088	36.1%	4.8%	18.2%	38.7%	SS	$2,200	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,600
9	Chris Archer	RIGHT	0.029	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	75.0%	0.0%	P	$7,900	P	$7,800	P	$15,400
	Team Averages		0.304	0.145	30.0%	6.9%	24.2%	35.8%

Elite Plays – Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Francisco Cervelli, Colin Moran

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Toronto
			Andrew Cashner							Marco Estrada
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-175							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.373	34.2%	1.52	19.1%	39.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	0.311	27.2%	1.22	18.1%	25.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.341	0.351	29.6%	0.86	13.3%	45.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.362	0.376	33.3%	1.92	17.3%	23.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$5,700	Salary:		$10,900
	Salary Rank:			14 of 19	Salary Rank:			14 of 19	Salary Rank:		15 of 19
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%	93.4	6.1%
	2018	23	5.06	4.71	16.3%	9.7%	42.8%	31.9%	19.0%	92.6	6.9%
	L14	2	5.56	1.93	8.9%	7.1%	52.2%	26.1%	19.6%	92.6	6.8%

I hate giving out spoilers, but Cashner is one of the aforementioned exploitable matchups that we can target tonight. In 23 starts this season, he has a 5.06 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. Tonight he’s pitching on the road in a difficult matchup against the Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has a .347 xwOBA, a 38% hard contact rate, and an ISO of .170 against right-handed pitching. “Avoid all things Orioles” isn’t a bad motto to live by the rest of the season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Marco Estrada
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$6,800	Salary:		$13,500
	Salary Rank:			10 of 19	Salary Rank:			11 of 19	Salary Rank:		11 of 19
	2017	33	4.69	4.98	21.8%	8.8%	30.3%	27.2%	21.4%	89.9	10.9%
	2018	21	5.18	4.87	17.7%	7.0%	24.2%	30.6%	19.0%	88.8	10.1%
	L14	2	5.51	6.75	18.4%	6.1%	13.9%	40.5%	16.2%	88.0	14.6%

Estrada has not been good this season. In fact, he has been quite bad. In 21 starts, he owns a 5.18 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. He’s an extreme fly-ball pitcher that relies on strikeouts and pop-ups for his success. The problem is that he hasn’t had many of those this season. With that said, it’s hard to argue with a matchup against the Orioles, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .301 with a strikeout rate of 24%. We’ve been streaming pitchers against Baltimore for the last month, so why stop now?

Quick Breakdown: Estrada is cheap, he has the best matchup of the slate, and he’s a large favorite pitching at home.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles aren’t an offense that I want much exposure to the rest of the season, but if you don’t have any faith in Marco Estrada, then you should be able to make a case for a few hitters in this lineup. In addition to having a low strikeout rate and a high fly-ball rate, Estrada has allowed a .376 xwOBA and a 1.92 HR/9 to right-handed hitters this season. Trey Mancini, Renato Nunez, and Tim Beckham all bat from the right side, although Mancini is the only one with good numbers against right-handed pitching this season (.373 xwOBA).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cedric Mullins	LEFT	0.348	0.333	34.8%	11.1%	3.7%	40.9%	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,500
2	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.275	0.096	30.5%	7.6%	28.3%	61.3%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,800	2B	$7,700
3	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.373	0.178	38.8%	8.0%	23.8%	49.8%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,400
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.306	0.143	36.1%	8.3%	35.9%	40.7%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,100	IF/OF	$5,500
5	Renato Nunez	RIGHT	0.318	0.163	33.3%	10.0%	22.2%	44.1%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,800	IF/OF	$7,300
6	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.292	0.131	29.7%	6.0%	25.9%	46.9%	SS	$2,700	3B/SS	$3,400	SS	$6,300
7	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.226	0.033	8.3%	7.5%	19.4%	60.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	LF	$5,900
8	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.305	0.132	30.9%	11.8%	24.7%	43.9%	OF	$2,100	3B/OF	$3,200	2B	$6,800
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.269	0.153	28.1%	3.8%	27.5%	44.8%	C	$2,300	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
	Team Averages		0.301	0.151	30.1%	8.2%	23.5%	48.1%

Elite Plays – Trey Mancini (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar (GPP), Renato Nunez (GPP), Tim Beckham (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are one of the top stacks on the board tonight. As mentioned above, their lineup has mashed against right-handed pitching this season and they draw one of the top matchups on the board. Andrew Cashner has a low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he has allowed a .350+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. Curtis Granderson, Justin Smoak, and Kendrys Morales all boast a .185+ ISO against right-handed pitching this season and should all be near the top of the lineup. Devon Travis and Russell Martin are both dirt cheap, while Randal Grichuk and Teoscar Hernandez can become viable depending on if and where they are in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.353	0.197	38.5%	12.5%	26.7%	31.7%	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,500
2	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.315	0.111	30.3%	5.6%	20.0%	54.8%	2B	$2,700	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,300
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.408	0.246	38.4%	16.2%	25.6%	30.5%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,500
4	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.431	0.186	46.1%	12.9%	19.8%	44.9%	1B	$2,300	1B	$3,500	1B	$6,600
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.332	0.154	31.2%	15.9%	23.8%	48.6%	3B	$2,500	C	$3,600	C	$7,700
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.341	0.168	34.5%	4.0%	20.2%	35.6%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
7	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.344	0.254	35.3%	5.7%	23.7%	37.8%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,500
8	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.346	0.183	33.5%	3.3%	12.0%	42.9%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,300
9	Richard Urena	SWITCH	0.255	0.033	50.0%	6.1%	33.3%	36.8%	SS	$2,100	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.347	0.170	37.5%	9.1%	22.8%	40.4%

Elite Plays – Curtis Granderson, Devon Travis, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin (DK), Teoscar Hernandez or Randal Grichuk

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	HC%
Chicago White Sox								Minnesota
			Lucas Giolito						Stephen Gonsalves
			RIGHT						LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline						Vegas Over/Under
			MIN-160						9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.374	0.406	34.3%	1.39	12.3%	38.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.333	30.1%	1.48	18.7%	47.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Lucas Giolito
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$4,700	Salary:		$9,300
	Salary Rank:			13 of 19	Salary Rank:			18 of 19	Salary Rank:		18 of 19
	2017	7	4.49	2.38	19.0%	6.7%	45.0%	35.4%	19.2%	92.1	10.1%
	2018	24	5.58	6.15	15.4%	12.2%	42.7%	32.3%	16.1%	92.3	8.2%
	L14	2	3.43	8.18	26.4%	7.6%	55.9%	38.2%	17.7%	93.6	10.9%

Giolito has been one of the easiest pitchers to pick on this season. In 24 starts, he has a 5.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 12%. He’s a fly-ball pitcher that doesn’t strike anyone out, which is why he’s allowed so many runs this season. He comes into the game as a large underdog against the Twins, whose projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .323 with a strikeout rate of 37% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Giolito is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	ERA	K%	HC%	SC%	SwS%
Stephen Gonsalves
	FanDuel		DraftKings		FantasyDraft
	Salary:		Salary:	$5,400	Salary:	$11,300
	Salary Rank:	of 19	Salary Rank:	15 of 19	Salary Rank:	14 of 19

Gonsalves will be making his major league debut tonight against the White Sox. On one hand, you can’t ask for a better matchup to start your major league career. On the other hand, these pitching debuts typically don’t go as planned. Gonsalves isn’t your average call-up, as he’s the team’s sixth ranked prospect. In 18 Triple-A starts this season, he posted a 4.03 FIP with a strikeout rate of 23%. In these situations, I either take a wait and see approach or side with the offense that is facing the pitcher making his debut.

Quick Breakdown: Gonsalves is enticing in large-field tournaments, but I’ll take my chances elsewhere.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox are facing a rookie southpaw that is making his first career major league appearance. How many times this season have we witnessed a noteworthy pitching debut? You can probably count them on one hand. That’s not to say Stephen Gonsalves can’t pitch well tonight, but if I’m taking a stand in this matchup, I’ll take the White Sox. Tim Anderson (if he’s leading off), Avisail Garcia, Jose Abreu, and Matt Davidson make a great four-man stack in tournaments, as they are all affordable and all boast a .180+ ISO against left-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.317	0.183	34.7%	4.7%	21.1%	41.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,100
2	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.405	0.286	54.8%	5.1%	23.7%	59.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	RF	$7,500
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.377	0.266	43.5%	9.3%	25.0%	47.8%	1B	$3,600	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,100
4	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.369	0.263	46.9%	14.4%	30.0%	46.9%	1B	$2,900	1B/3B	$4,400	3B	$8,300
5	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.231	0.092	33.3%	10.4%	34.4%	51.5%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
6	Leury Garcia	SWITCH	0.284	0.118	33.9%	1.3%	22.8%	46.4%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,900	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.252	0.039	24.7%	6.3%	27.7%	60.6%	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,900	2B	$7,700
8	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.237	0.088	25.0%	3.1%	21.9%	41.8%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,400
9	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.318	0.091	19.2%	18.6%	18.6%	50.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
	Team Averages		0.310	0.158	35.1%	8.1%	25.0%	49.5%

Elite Plays – Tim Anderson (FD all formats & DK GPP), Avisail Garcia (GPP), Jose Abreu (GPP), Matt Davidson (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tim Anderson (DK Cash), Avisail Garcia (Cash), Jose Abreu (Cash), Matt Davidson (Cash)

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins draw one of the best matchups of the slate, but they are getting less buzz around the DFS industry than the Blue Jays and Brewers. If they are the lowest owned stack of the three, I will gladly to to bat with Minnesota. Lucas Giolito has a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and he has allowed a .406 xwOBA to left-handed hitters. Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, and Max Kepler are all elite plays at their respective positions, while Miguel Sano make a tremendous tournament play. He’s been red-hot at the plate over the last two weeks.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.402	0.103	44.8%	11.1%	12.8%	49.1%	1B	$2,800	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,200
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.342	0.233	39.3%	6.5%	17.1%	32.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	LF	$8,900
3	Jorge Polanco	SWITCH	0.313	0.146	27.5%	11.9%	19.5%	43.0%	SS	$3,200	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
4	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.310	0.228	49.5%	10.0%	38.3%	41.9%	3B	$3,600	1B/3B	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.332	0.186	38.1%	12.0%	13.9%	39.8%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
6	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.282	0.087	30.6%	7.3%	18.3%	46.3%	2B	$2,800	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500
7	Jake Cave	LEFT	0.371	0.174	33.3%	3.9%	26.4%	43.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,500
8	Ehire Adrianza	SWITCH	0.309	0.152	41.1%	7.1%	24.7%	36.4%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.242	0.119	25.6%	5.4%	24.3%	44.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
	Team Averages		0.323	0.159	36.6%	8.4%	21.7%	41.9%

Elite Plays – Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano (Cash), Jake Cave

Stackability – GREEN

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Boston
			Corey Kluber							Rick Porcello
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-105							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.262	0.283	36.7%	1.34	26.9%	43.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.291	0.334	41.0%	1.29	28.0%	36.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.256	0.302	35.6%	0.93	22.8%	46.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.298	0.307	27.5%	0.99	19.9%	51.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,400	Salary:			$11,000	Salary:		$21,600
	Salary Rank:			2 of 19	Salary Rank:			2 of 19	Salary Rank:		2 of 19
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%	92.6	15.6%
	2018	25	3.32	2.68	24.8%	3.4%	45.1%	36.2%	15.8%	92.1	10.7%
	L14	2	3.16	3.21	26.4%	3.8%	45.9%	37.8%	8.1%	91.6	6.1%

Kluber is right there with Cole as the most talented pitcher in tonight’s ten-game slate, but he draws the worst matchup of any. It’s a tough sell for any pitcher that is facing the Red Sox in Fenway Park. Kluber is having another standout season, but it’s worth noting that his strikeout rate has dipped 6% from last season, while his hard contact rate is up 7%. I’m always willing to look his way in a favorable matchup, but can’t stomach this price given his matchup against the Red Sox, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .383 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Dollar for dollar, there are better options available tonight.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Rick Porcello
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,300	Salary:			$10,100	Salary:		$19,400
	Salary Rank:			3 of 19	Salary Rank:			3 of 19	Salary Rank:		3 of 19
	2017	33	4.28	4.65	20.5%	5.4%	39.2%	38.3%	17.1%	91.1	9.4%
	2018	25	3.70	4.04	23.6%	5.7%	45.3%	33.3%	19.8%	90.3	8.6%
	L14	2	2.85	6.55	33.3%	6.7%	48.1%	44.4%	3.7%	90.5	9.5%

Porcello has quietly had a solid season for the Red Sox, but he never seems to take advantage of his favorable matchups. He always pops when we don’t expect him to and he underperforms when we expect him to pitch well. This alone is why he is never highly owned in DFS. He’s burned as many bridges as he’s been able to find. Tonight he draws an awful matchup against the Indians, so he’ll likely pitch well and frustrate the masses once again. I want no part of him, as the Indians’ projected lineup boasts an average xwOBA of .377 with a strikeout rate of only 16% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Porcello in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

This is one of the toughest games to predict on the schedule. We have two above-average pitchers that are squaring off against two elite offenses in a hitter-friendly ballpark. I’m tempted to side with the offenses here, but will likely be avoiding the situation entirely. If targeting the Indians, give an edge to the ones that can bat from the left side. On the season, Rick Porcello has allowed a .334 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters, which brings Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez, and Yonder Alonso into play in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.405	0.275	42.8%	9.9%	16.5%	34.7%	SS	$4,400	SS	$5,300	SS	$9,900
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.402	0.185	43.1%	8.9%	7.9%	43.6%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,700	LF	$9,000
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.427	0.381	39.9%	18.3%	11.3%	30.4%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,800	IF/OF	$10,300
4	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.523	0.091	66.7%	8.3%	16.7%	33.3%	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.381	0.204	38.8%	9.4%	19.7%	38.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,500
6	Melky Cabrera	SWITCH	0.327	0.102	37.1%	5.0%	12.6%	44.3%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.346	0.128	36.8%	10.4%	17.7%	35.2%	2B	$2,900	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,300
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.306	0.149	43.0%	4.6%	27.6%	34.2%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	C	$6,800
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.280	0.074	38.7%	4.9%	17.3%	45.3%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
	Team Averages		0.377	0.177	43.0%	8.9%	16.4%	37.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor (GPP), Michael Brantley (GPP), Jose Ramirez (GPP), Yonder Alonso (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

The Red Sox are almost always on my radar when playing at home, but they have arguably the worst matchup of the slate. Corey Kluber has a 25% strikeout rate, a 3% walk rate, and he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .305 xwOBA this season. In other words, if you are playing any hitters here, you are banking on the talent rather than the matchup. Given the fact that the Red Sox aren’t priced at a discount, I will be avoiding this offense completely.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.454	0.281	45.5%	11.0%	13.7%	33.2%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,900	RF	$11,300
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.408	0.202	30.5%	12.8%	13.6%	37.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200	LF	$9,800
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.415	0.229	36.4%	9.9%	20.4%	41.1%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,300
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.466	0.369	46.6%	10.8%	21.9%	44.3%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,400
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.385	0.260	38.8%	7.5%	16.4%	48.2%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,600	SS	$9,100
6	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.339	0.199	33.1%	9.0%	10.0%	37.2%	2B	$2,800	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
7	Brock Holt	LEFT	0.335	0.116	29.1%	8.5%	14.5%	51.4%	2B	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,600	2B	$7,700
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.267	0.126	28.2%	3.5%	25.9%	43.8%	C	$2,200	C	$2,800	C	$5,900
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.376	0.196	40.3%	10.0%	22.7%	40.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,300
	Team Averages		0.383	0.220	36.5%	9.2%	17.7%	41.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts (GPP), Andrew Benintendi (GPP), Mitch Moreland (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Tampa Bay
			Jorge Lopez							Hunter Wood
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TB -190							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.372	39.5%	1.35	14.6%	39.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.303	0.233	29.6%	0.75	34.0%	53.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.378	0.376	54.1%	0.00	18.5%	51.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.397	0.340	38.3%	1.26	19.7%	43.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jorge Lopez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$5,200	Salary:		$9,900
	Salary Rank:			17 of 19	Salary Rank:			16 of 19	Salary Rank:		16 of 19
	2017	0	6.75	4.50	0.0%	10.0%	44.4%	44.4%	0.0%	94.8	5.7%
	2018	1	5.23	4.44	16.5%	13.8%	45.3%	46.7%	21.3%	94.1	10.5%
	L14	1	6.10	11.57	12.5%	8.3%	11.1%	50.0%	16.7%	93.7	8.0%

Lopez is making his second career major league start and his 12th career major league appearance. Most of his work in the minors came out of the bullpen, but he did throw 88 pitches in his lone MLB start, so he’s likely stretched enough to throw a full complement of pitches. Whether that’s a good or bad thing remains to be seen. He checks into tonight’s game as a massive underdog against the Rays in a game that features a total of 8.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: For now, let’s continue to take a wait and see approach with Lopez.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Hunter Wood
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$4,300	Salary:		$8,500
	Salary Rank:			17 of 19	Salary Rank:			19 of 19	Salary Rank:		19 of 19
	2017	0	13.42	0.00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	90.0	0.0%
	2018	7	3.91	4.10	26.1%	11.8%	47.2%	35.1%	21.6%	94.2	15.2%
	L14	2	6.25	9.00	10.0%	15.0%	42.9%	40.0%	26.7%	94.8	14.5%

Wood will get the nod tonight, but he’s not going to pitch more than an inning or two, so we can cross him off our list of potential targets. Since the Rays are large favorites and since they draw a favorable matchup against the Royals, the long reliever could provide some fantasy appeal tonight. Our inside source (Mark Topkin on Twitter) hasn’t given us that information just yet, but based on the rotation, I expect it to be Ryan Yarbrough. If we get confirmation that he’s coming in after Wood, he’s worth a look as an SP2 on DraftKings ($6,900).

Quick Breakdown: Wood is an easy fade, but Yarbrough (if he’s the guy) could have some appeal as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and they come into the game as large favorites. The betting markets don’t have a lot of faith in this offense right now, even though they played well against the White Sox in Chicago. They’ll likely be facing the duo of Hunter Wood and Ryan Yarbrough. If that’s the case, it hurts the appeal of the lefties (as Yarbrough is a southpaw that will eat up most of the innings). I’m fine with Whit Merrifield and Salvador Perez as one-offs, but I’m not prioritizing them in my lineups tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.339	0.095	36.8%	9.9%	16.6%	36.8%	2B	$3,500	2B/OF	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,300
2	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.380	0.149	38.1%	9.4%	20.5%	46.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,700
3	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.354	0.196	44.8%	2.2%	20.1%	34.7%	C	$3,000	C	$4,000	C	$7,200
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.359	0.195	42.3%	8.2%	26.4%	28.9%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,300
5	Jorge Bonifacio	RIGHT	0.306	0.146	37.3%	7.6%	20.0%	29.7%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,900
6	Ryan O’Hearn	LEFT	0.500	0.480	52.4%	16.7%	13.3%	38.1%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,200
7	Rosell Herrera	SWITCH	0.262	0.095	35.7%	5.9%	21.5%	63.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	2B	$5,800
8	Brett Phillips	LEFT	0.257	0.189	39.3%	7.0%	43.9%	29.6%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,500
9	Adalberto Mondesi	RIGHT	0.289	0.128	39.7%	3.0%	28.3%	47.6%	SS	$2,800	2B/SS	$4,100	2B	$8,400
	Team Averages		0.338	0.186	40.7%	7.8%	23.4%	39.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Salvador Perez (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw an exploitable matchup against Jorge Lopez. While we don’t have much of a sample size to work with, he has posted a walk rate of 14% in his 11 major league appearances this season. During that stretch, he has allowed a .370+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. I know the Rays are the Rays and that they are playing at home in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, but they could provide some nice value in tournaments. Mallex Smith brings stolen base upside to the table, while Jake Bauers, Tommy Pham, and Ji-Man Choi all have good power against right-handed pitching. And hey, if they can get to Lopez early, they’ll get to feast on the worst bullpen in baseball.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mallex Smith	LEFT	0.300	0.135	29.6%	9.2%	17.8%	47.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$4,600	CF	$9,200
2	Matt Duffy	RIGHT	0.314	0.082	28.1%	6.3%	15.3%	52.8%	3B	$2,300	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
3	Jake Bauers	LEFT	0.357	0.214	43.0%	14.4%	24.8%	44.2%	1B	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,800	1B	$7,200
4	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.346	0.162	46.5%	9.8%	26.2%	51.2%	OF	$2,600	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
5	Joey Wendle	LEFT	0.326	0.131	36.4%	5.6%	18.9%	46.5%	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,600
6	Ji-Man Choi	LEFT	0.388	0.239	46.0%	9.7%	29.1%	39.7%	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,700	IF/OF	$7,200
7	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.255	0.095	31.2%	7.0%	24.3%	52.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,400
8	Willy Adames	RIGHT	0.289	0.153	28.7%	8.8%	27.7%	45.3%	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
9	Michael Perez	LEFT	0.307	0.132	38.7%	4.9%	19.5%	32.3%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$5,500
	Team Averages		0.320	0.149	36.5%	8.4%	22.6%	45.8%

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith (FD), Jake Bauers (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Mallex Smith (DK), Jake Bauers (Cash), Matt Duffy, Tommy Pham, Joey Wendle, Ji-Man Choi

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, August 20th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago White Sox at Minnesota – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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