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MLB Grind Down: Monday, June 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-06-20 04:07:49

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Cleveland at Baltimore – 7:05 PM ET

Cleveland Baltimore
clevelandmlb Corey Kluber baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-144 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.288 0.287 28.5% 7.1% 24.3% 46.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.325 31.8% 7.9% 16.3% 33.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.274 0.274 29.4% 6.5% 29.8% 43.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.319 0.316 28.8% 8.6% 24.0% 34.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Corey Kluber
corey-kluber-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,300 Salary: $11,700 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 22 Salary Rank: 2 of 22 Salary Rank: 2 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.50 3.14 26.4% 6.6% 44.5% 27.6% 19.9%
2017 9 3.34 4.15 30.0% 7.4% 44.8% 34.3% 22.4%

We have an interesting 11 game slate on tap tonight, with plenty of big arms taking the mound. Kluber has struck out at least eight batters in each of his first three starts since returning from the DL. In nine starts this season, he owns a 3.34 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30%. Given his matchup on the road against the Orioles, he’s not as safe as Clayton Kershaw or Jon Lester, but he has nearly as much upside. In 73 plate appearances, the current Orioles’ roster has a .285 wOBA with a 30% strikeout rate against Kluber.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is viable in all formats, although with Kershaw pitching at home, I see him more as a tournament play.

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 6 of 22 Salary Rank: 12 of 22 Salary Rank: 12 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 14 4.93 3.29 17.9% 7.4% 31.9% 33.3% 21.1%

Bundy may have a 3.29 ERA this season, but a 4.93 SIERA suggests some regression moving forward. His strikeout rate is down considerably this season and he is an extreme fly-ball pitcher that plays in the American League East. I haven’t had a lot of exposure to Bundy this season and that’s not going to change tonight against an Indians’ offense that is ranked eighth in team wOBA and ninth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: With so many elite arms in the slate, Bundy can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians have one of the most talented offenses in all of baseball. They see a slightly favorable ballpark shift playing in Camden Yards and they draw a decent matchup against Dylan Bundy, who has allowed a .325 xwOBA and a 32% hard contact rate to lefties in the last two seasons. I’m always a fan of targeting offenses facing fly-ball pitchers, especially ones with a below-average strikeout rate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.343 0.345 0.196 38.2% 9.2% 19.5% 37.4% 2B $3,300 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.344 0.343 0.166 27.0% 9.0% 12.7% 45.8% SS $3,400 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.338 0.348 0.138 40.0% 9.6% 14.0% 51.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
4 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.374 0.398 0.264 37.5% 15.1% 16.9% 35.8% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.363 0.381 0.252 37.6% 10.9% 20.6% 38.2% 1B $3,700 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
6 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.363 0.340 0.174 28.0% 7.5% 9.7% 38.0% 3B $4,000 2B/3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
7 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.346 0.314 0.199 29.2% 5.3% 16.5% 34.3% OF $2,700 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.223 0.267 0.139 30.0% 5.1% 26.3% 39.1% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.396 0.396 0.296 41.7% 12.9% 29.0% 42.9% OF $3,100 OF $4,200 CF $8,000

Elite Plays – Jason Kipnis, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles draw one of the worst matchups in the slate and potentially in all of baseball. Corey Kluber has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Even though Baltimore is playing at home, we shouldn’t go out of our way to target them in a difficult matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.337 0.368 0.173 33.2% 11.0% 21.2% 45.9% OF $2,600 OF $4,000 LF $7,600
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.340 0.354 0.237 35.4% 6.7% 19.4% 37.7% 3B $3,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.337 0.339 0.195 32.2% 5.3% 16.2% 43.5% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
4 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.377 0.259 36.9% 8.6% 23.4% 39.5% OF $3,100 OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.411 0.376 0.272 36.5% 7.8% 26.7% 48.6% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,300 1B $8,400
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.340 0.312 0.203 29.2% 3.4% 19.9% 42.3% 2B $3,000 2B $4,400 2B $8,700
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.307 0.297 0.142 33.2% 6.2% 26.6% 41.2% C $2,800 C $4,200 C $8,100
8 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.353 0.347 0.115 28.8% 9.2% 14.4% 51.0% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.152 0.241 0.042 15.8% 5.7% 20.8% 41.7% SS $2,100 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cincinnati at Tampa Bay – 7:10 PM ET

Cincinnati Tampa Bay
cincinnatimlb Scott Feldman tampabaymlb Jake Odorizzi
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -136 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.366 0.337 24.6% 9.1% 16.5% 48.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.273 0.282 30.5% 6.4% 25.0% 38.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.294 28.5% 5.3% 18.7% 45.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.346 36.4% 7.9% 18.8% 34.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Scott Feldman
scott-feldman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 10 of 22 Salary Rank: 16 of 22 Salary Rank: 16 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 5 4.07 3.97 16.6% 5.6% 49.8% 24.6% 21.2%
2017 14 4.57 4.29 19.0% 8.3% 43.7% 29.3% 22.0%

Feldman is one of those pitchers that we don’t love to target, but that we don’t love to target hitters against either. He has a below-average strikeout rate, which limits his upside, but he also induces a lot of soft and medium contact, which limits the appeal of the opposing offense. As a small underdog on the road against the Rays, we can avoid Feldman in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: The Rays may strikeout at a high rate, but Feldman doesn’t have enough upside to warrant consideration.

Jake Odorizzi
jake-odorizzi-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 11 of 22 Salary Rank: 9 of 22 Salary Rank: 9 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.21 3.69 21.5% 7.0% 36.6% 33.7% 16.8%
2017 12 4.48 3.77 21.2% 8.1% 34.8% 35.0% 13.1%

Odorizzi has pitched well at home throughout his career. Pitching in the American League East, it makes a lot of sense because the other three ballparks in his division are very hitter-friendly. On the season, Odorizzi has a 4.48 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21%. A matchup against the Reds seems like a favorable one, but Cincinnati is quietly ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. We shouldn’t expect Odorizzi to come out and strikeout ten hitters, but he’s viable as an SP2.

Quick Breakdown: The matchup isn’t ideal, but Odorizzi is viable as a cheap SP2 on multi-pitcher sites.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds get to utilize the DH in this series, but they see a negative ballpark shift playing in Tampa Bay. They draw a fairly difficult matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who has pitched well at home throughout his career. Odorizzi has some serious reverse-splits, holding lefties to a ,282 xwOBA while giving up a .346 xwOBA and a 36% hard contact rate to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.252 0.078 18.5% 8.9% 20.1% 47.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.339 0.302 0.182 29.4% 9.3% 17.1% 39.2% SS $3,400 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.436 0.257 40.1% 17.3% 14.3% 37.2% 1B $4,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.332 0.326 0.253 36.6% 5.8% 27.0% 33.7% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.316 0.315 0.155 33.2% 8.2% 23.6% 40.9% 3B $3,100 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.341 0.335 0.215 35.9% 7.9% 21.4% 49.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 RF $7,600
7 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.326 0.292 0.175 31.3% 5.4% 20.1% 42.9% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $3,400 2B $6,600
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.298 0.297 0.198 22.1% 8.4% 18.9% 41.2% C $2,600 C $3,200 C $6,300
9 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.309 0.297 0.093 19.6% 1.8% 13.7% 43.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,400 2B $6,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays have a mediocre implied run total tonight, as they take on Scott Feldman at home. I expect them to score some runs here, but this isn’t exactly what I would call an exploitable matchup. In the last two seasons, Feldman has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 29% hard contact rate. Mallex Smith remains a good value play batting leadoff, especially since Feldman allows quite a few stolen bases.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.362 0.272 0.148 22.2% 10.1% 19.8% 61.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.354 0.322 0.271 32.8% 6.2% 21.8% 34.6% OF $3,800 OF $4,800 LF $9,200
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.351 0.349 0.234 35.2% 6.1% 19.7% 35.8% 3B $3,500 3B $3,500 3B $6,800
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.345 0.368 0.245 39.6% 11.0% 22.9% 39.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.348 0.329 0.205 32.3% 10.3% 30.8% 40.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
6 Colby Rasmus LEFT 0.322 0.323 0.199 38.2% 9.3% 29.6% 35.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
7 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.324 0.302 0.200 43.9% 4.4% 31.8% 43.8% SS $3,200 SS $4,100 SS $8,100
8 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.289 0.276 0.118 29.9% 9.5% 25.7% 52.3% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 LF $5,600
9 Derek Norris RIGHT 0.238 0.265 0.131 31.2% 6.7% 31.7% 33.7% C $2,400 C $2,500 C $4,800

Elite Plays – Mallex Smith

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Washington at Miami – 7:10 PM ET

Washington Miami
washingtonmlb Tanner Roark miamimlb Justin Nicolino
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-102 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.326 29.4% 10.3% 18.0% 41.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.299 0.303 24.4% 1.9% 11.3% 58.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.298 21.8% 6.3% 21.5% 54.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.355 0.370 34.5% 8.1% 11.4% 43.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 5 of 22 Salary Rank: 7 of 22 Salary Rank: 7 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 14 4.47 4.39 19.2% 7.5% 46.2% 28.1% 14.2%

Roark is typically overpriced for a pitcher with a below-average strikeout rate. He benefits from playing in the National League and he benefits from having a talented offense behind him. We have to be price-sensitive in DFS and Roark rarely stands out as a good play at his price point. With Justin Bour back in the lineup, the Marlins aren’t an offense that I want to target right-handed pitchers against.

Quick Breakdown: This game is basically set as a pick ‘em with an over/under of 9.5 runs, which is a red flag for both pitchers.

Justin Nicolino
justin-nicolino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $4,900 Salary: $9,600
Salary Rank: 18 of 22 Salary Rank: 21 of 22 Salary Rank: 21 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 13 5.11 4.99 10.7% 5.8% 46.6% 32.9% 15.4%
2017 3 4.96 4.15 15.5% 10.3% 56.1% 23.8% 9.5%

Nicolino has a decent ground ball rate, but that’s about all he has going for him. He has a low strikeout rate, his command hasn’t been sharp, and he is facing a Nationals’ offense that is ranked seventh in team wOBA against left-handed pitching. This game has a sneaky over/under of 9.5 runs and could be a great one to target for hitters in tournaments.

Quick Breakdown: Nicolino has limited strikeout upside, especially in a matchup against the Nationals.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals mash right-handed pitching as a team and see a slight ballpark bump playing in Marlins Park. We’ve seen the over/unders for games in Miami come up this season and Vegas is expecting another high scoring game tonight. Over the last two seasons, Justin Nicolino has allowed a .370 xwOBA and a 35% strikeout rate to right-handed hitters, which brings Trea Turner, Ryan Raburn, Ryan Zimmerman, and Anthony Rendon into play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.252 0.259 0.068 32.3% 2.5% 20.7% 50.5% SS $4,300 SS $5,200 IF/OF $10,000
2 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.331 0.291 0.212 34.2% 13.3% 24.4% 48.8% OF $2,500 OF $2,900 LF $5,600
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.325 0.306 0.182 30.8% 11.7% 28.8% 45.4% OF $4,600 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.353 0.390 0.274 40.2% 9.2% 14.4% 52.1% 1B $3,900 1B $5,000 1B $9,900
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.386 0.374 0.220 33.7% 5.6% 12.5% 35.9% 2B $4,200 2B $4,800 2B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.408 0.382 0.225 38.1% 17.3% 14.5% 33.9% 3B $3,800 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.313 0.346 0.156 31.4% 8.8% 20.3% 37.1% C $2,700 C $3,700 C $7,200
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.338 0.313 0.190 36.4% 5.5% 34.4% 50.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.107 0.114 0.059 14.3% 5.3% 57.9% 33.3% P $8,800 P $7,600 P $15,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Ryan Raburn, Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami

When we look at Tanner Roark splits, there isn’t a lot that really stands out. He has an above-average ground ball rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a 30% hard contact rate. He does allow a .326 xwOBA to lefties, but that’s not exactly a number that would make us play anyone from the Marlins. Dee Gordon, Justin Bour, and Christian Yelich are all viable targets, but they are far from core plays in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.301 0.245 0.079 18.6% 5.4% 15.1% 56.8% 2B $3,200 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.338 0.339 0.229 36.8% 9.6% 28.1% 40.4% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.368 0.383 0.185 39.9% 11.8% 19.8% 55.0% OF $3,700 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.347 0.341 0.197 37.2% 7.6% 20.1% 46.5% OF $3,800 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
5 Justin Bour LEFT 0.362 0.394 0.239 40.2% 11.9% 17.1% 44.9% 1B $3,500 1B $4,500 1B $8,800
6 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.338 0.311 0.125 30.7% 5.4% 17.1% 49.9% C $3,200 C $3,800 C $7,500
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.333 0.333 0.149 29.6% 7.6% 19.6% 38.2% 3B $2,700 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
8 JT Riddle LEFT 0.294 0.300 0.150 41.7% 4.5% 19.1% 46.9% SS $2,600 SS $2,500 SS $4,800
9 Edinson Volquez RIGHT 0.191 0.157 0.000 12.5% 4.2% 29.2% 71.4% P $7,800 P $7,100 P $14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Justin Bour

Stackability – YELLOW

San Francisco at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

San Francisco Atlanta
sanfranciscomlb Johnny Cueto atlantamlb R.A. Dickey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
SF -132 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.302 0.323 32.4% 5.5% 23.1% 45.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.341 28.5% 9.9% 14.8% 41.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.290 27.0% 5.7% 22.2% 48.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.350 0.348 30.5% 8.3% 17.0% 46.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Johnny Cueto
johnny-cueto-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,700 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 4 of 22 Salary Rank: 4 of 22 Salary Rank: 4 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.59 2.79 22.5% 5.1% 50.2% 27.2% 19.4%
2017 14 4.02 4.57 23.1% 6.7% 39.6% 35.6% 14.6%

Cueto has given up more hard contact this season, but has basically been the same pitcher as always. He has an above-average strikeout rate and good command. However, this is not a ballpark that suits his strong suit. If you are still treating SunTrust Park as a pitcher-friendly ballpark, you are doing it wrong. Statistically, it has been one of the best in baseball for lefties and around the league average for righties. In a slate full of elite arms, Cueto is more of a secondary tournament option tonight.

Quick Breakdown: The Braves are a high contact team and Cueto has to face them in a hitter-friendly ballpark.

R.A. Dickey
r-a-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,700 Salary: $5,800 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 17 of 22 Salary Rank: 18 of 22 Salary Rank: 18 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 29 4.81 4.46 17.3% 8.7% 42.1% 30.0% 22.7%
2017 13 5.43 5.35 13.3% 9.8% 49.6% 28.9% 25.0%

Dickey allowed eight earned runs in his last start against the Nationals. When his knuckleball isn’t finding the corners or when it isn’t “dancing,” he can get into trouble quickly. On the season, he has a 5.43 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He is playing in a bad ballpark and he is facing a low strikeout offense in the Giants.

Quick Breakdown: Dickey can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

San Francisco

The Giants are one of the worst offenses in baseball, but it’s a season that has been plagued with injuries. They finally have a semblance of a lineup now that they are healthy again. They come into tonight’s game with one of the highest implied run totals in the slate, as they take on the struggling R.A. Dickey. The one through five stack is viable in tournaments and we can look to Brandon Belt and Buster Posey in cash games.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Denard Span LEFT 0.334 0.339 0.148 26.7% 7.8% 11.9% 47.1% OF $2,900 OF $3,900 CF $7,600
2 Joe Panik LEFT 0.322 0.338 0.168 26.8% 9.5% 7.7% 44.9% 2B $2,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
3 Brandon Belt LEFT 0.368 0.390 0.207 37.8% 16.7% 22.1% 26.6% 1B $3,000 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Buster Posey RIGHT 0.346 0.370 0.143 34.1% 9.4% 10.7% 48.6% C $3,700 1B/C $4,100 C $8,000
5 Brandon Crawford LEFT 0.315 0.326 0.166 34.1% 8.9% 18.9% 44.9% SS $3,000 SS $3,300 SS $6,400
6 Hunter Pence RIGHT 0.322 0.311 0.110 28.2% 8.3% 21.8% 60.3% OF $3,200 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Aaron Hill RIGHT 0.290 0.293 0.116 30.2% 8.9% 15.7% 37.9% 2B $2,400 2B/OF $2,600 3B $5,200
8 Austin Slater RIGHT 0.397 0.335 0.097 12.0% 8.3% 16.7% 68.0% OF $2,700 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
9 Johnny Cueto RIGHT 0.093 0.157 0.000 5.9% 4.3% 22.9% 71.4% P $9,700 P $9,100 P $17,700

Elite Plays – Brandon Belt, Buster Posey

Secondary Plays – Denard Span, Joe Panik, Brandon Crawford

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

This is an interesting situation. We have an average offense facing a good pitcher, but they are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark and have a relatively high implied run total. Given the size of the slate, we don’t need to go out of our way to target the Braves, but that’s what everyone else will be thinking as well. A mini-Braves stack will be super contrarian and you never know what can happen in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.316 0.296 0.103 26.4% 8.3% 13.5% 42.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 CF $8,400
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.330 0.306 0.128 28.6% 3.2% 12.2% 47.0% 2B $3,300 2B $4,400 2B $8,400
3 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.339 0.359 0.136 34.0% 11.4% 16.4% 43.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.340 0.352 0.217 36.8% 4.9% 23.9% 40.4% OF $3,200 OF $4,700 LF $9,200
5 Matt Adams LEFT 0.350 0.348 0.235 37.9% 8.4% 25.1% 33.8% 1B $3,500 1B/OF $4,500 1B $8,800
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.367 0.343 0.155 41.8% 8.0% 25.1% 41.8% C $3,300 C $4,000 C $7,800
7 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.273 0.301 0.099 32.1% 10.1% 23.9% 49.4% SS $2,800 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
8 Rio Ruiz LEFT 0.258 0.322 0.130 33.3% 9.3% 26.7% 63.0% 3B $2,700 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
9 R.A. Dickey RIGHT 0.114 0.135 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 76.5% P $6,700 P $5,800 P $11,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Matt Kemp, Matt Adams, Tyler Flowers

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh at Milwaukee – 7:40 PM ET

Pittsburgh Milwaukee
pittsburghmlb Gerrit Cole milwaukeemlb Matt Garza
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-105 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.371 0.338 38.3% 5.7% 21.2% 40.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.353 0.362 37.1% 10.3% 11.9% 48.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.311 25.5% 7.3% 17.7% 51.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.291 33.7% 4.9% 19.9% 53.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
gerrit-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 22 Salary Rank: 8 of 22 Salary Rank: 8 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 21 4.24 3.88 19.4% 7.1% 45.6% 30.1% 21.3%
2017 14 4.23 4.54 19.6% 5.7% 46.0% 33.8% 20.2%

Cole is coming off of his first quality start in his last five outings. He may throw the ball hard, but he hasn’t been able to turn that into a high strikeout rate. In fact, his strikeout rate has been below the league average in each of the last two seasons. The Brewers are swinging the bat well recently and are ranked tenth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. With this game being played in Milwaukee, I have no interest in Cole in an 11 game slate.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is an easy fade given his recent form and the ballpark.

Matt Garza
matt-garza-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 13 of 22 Salary Rank: 17 of 22 Salary Rank: 17 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 19 4.60 4.51 15.2% 7.8% 54.8% 34.9% 19.0%
2017 9 4.61 4.17 18.1% 6.8% 42.7% 36.4% 11.0%

Garza started off the season on a high note, but has been trending in the wrong direction ever since. In nine starts overall, he has a 4.61 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 18%. The Pirates don’t have enough lefties in their lineup to truly take advantage of Garza’s splits, but their are enough to make him an easy fade. His strikeout upside is limited and we know how hitter-friendly Miller Park is to batters from both sides of the plate.

Quick Breakdown: This is a game to target for offensive production, not the pitchers.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates draw a favorable matchup against Matt Garza and they see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miller Park. Garza has been tough on right-handed hitters in the last two seasons, but has allowed a .362 xwOBA, a 37% hard contact rate, and a 10% walk rate. Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, and Josh Bell are all borderline elite plays tonight, even though their ownership should be fairly low since they play for the Pirates.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.330 0.334 0.131 31.3% 9.3% 15.1% 46.5% OF $3,400 OF $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.307 0.285 0.106 28.5% 4.1% 14.9% 42.7% 2B $3,300 2B/3B $4,300 2B $8,400
3 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.329 0.341 0.191 33.4% 9.1% 16.8% 38.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
4 David Freese RIGHT 0.318 0.325 0.132 32.1% 9.0% 26.7% 59.0% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
5 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.354 0.358 0.201 34.1% 12.5% 17.1% 50.0% 1B $2,900 1B $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.323 0.334 0.168 35.4% 9.4% 21.1% 37.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,400 RF $8,700
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.311 0.328 0.092 28.6% 13.1% 19.0% 52.2% C $2,600 C $3,100 C $6,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.310 0.302 0.114 25.6% 8.4% 14.3% 49.2% SS $3,000 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
9 Gerrit Cole RIGHT 0.128 0.128 0.000 6.3% 0.0% 39.6% 80.0% P $8,300 P $7,500 P $14,800

Elite Plays – Gregory Polanco

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Josh Bell

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers are starting to heat up again offensively. They have been streaky this season, but seem to be trending in the right direction. Their matchup against Gerrit Cole doesn’t sound great, but that mostly has to do with his name value. He has a below-average strikeout rate, he doesn’t hold runners well, and he has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to lefties. The Brewers have attempted the fourth most stolen bases this season, so look for them to be aggressive, especially if Francisco Cervelli is behind the plate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.425 0.402 0.164 24.1% 18.1% 10.8% 37.9% 2B $3,400 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.432 0.373 0.348 43.2% 19.0% 22.6% 40.9% 1B $3,800 1B/OF $4,700 1B $9,300
3 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.339 0.339 0.175 35.2% 11.6% 31.4% 45.5% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.344 0.339 0.201 36.5% 8.7% 22.7% 38.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
5 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.316 0.298 0.167 31.2% 4.3% 18.4% 48.4% OF $3,200 3B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,000
6 Manny Pina RIGHT 0.351 0.317 0.195 26.6% 6.9% 17.2% 35.2% C $2,200 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.312 0.290 0.204 38.8% 9.2% 38.7% 43.6% OF $3,100 OF $4,700 CF $9,200
8 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.267 0.244 0.122 25.7% 4.4% 21.6% 55.1% SS $2,000 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
9 Matt Garza RIGHT 0.133 0.145 0.000 6.7% 6.5% 41.9% 91.7% P $7,400 P $5,900 P $11,700

Elite Plays – Eric Sogard, Eric Thames

Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana, Travis Shaw, Keon Broxton

Stackability – YELLOW

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious