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MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 25th

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.


Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.


Washington at Philadelphia – 7:05 PM ET

Washington Philadelphia
washingtonmlb A.J. Cole philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.417 0.379 46.4% 13.7% 17.7% 42.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.319 0.299 33.5% 9.3% 23.5% 46.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.298 23.3% 10.0% 21.1% 39.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.270 0.257 26.6% 4.9% 28.8% 52.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

A.J. Cole
a-j-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,600 Salary: $6,100 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 22 Salary Rank: 16 of 22 Salary Rank: 14 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.33 5.17 23.2% 8.3% 31.9% 25.7% 18.6%
2017 7 5.18 4.43 19.3% 12.0% 41.3% 35.7% 17.1%
L30 3 5.05 3.48 20.2% 11.7% 36.1% 41.9% 12.9%

Welcome to the final week of the regular season. If you love daily fantasy baseball, this is your last chance this year to grind out full slates. Once the playoffs start, get ready for a lot of two-game slates. The Nationals have clinched the NL East division and are basically locked into the two seed for the playoffs. The name of the game over the next week is to get and stay healthy. Bryce Harper will be activated off of the DL before tonight’s game, but look for the Nationals to leave the training wheels on for the next few games. I bring this up to point out a lack of motivation in the final week of the season, which is key when trying to predict fantasy production in September. As for Cole, he is an underdog on the road and he owns a 12% walk rate with a 36% hard contact rate. He offers little to no fantasy appeal tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Cole doesn’t fit the mold of what we are looking for in a pitcher. He can be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $8,000 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 3 of 22 Salary Rank: 8 of 22 Salary Rank: 6 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 26 3.64 3.56 26.2% 7.0% 49.5% 30.0% 21.9%
L30 5 2.89 3.45 30.8% 5.4% 51.9% 24.4% 17.1%

Nola has all of the tools to be a great major league pitcher. In fact, he may already be a great major league pitcher. In 26 starts this season, he has a 3.64 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 26% and a ground ball rate of 50%. He has been in great form recently and his splits at home this season are fantastic. He currently owns a 30% k-rate in Philadelphia with an FIP of 3.10. The Nationals may have a talented lineup, but they have nothing to play for at the moment. Vegas likes the Phillies in this spot and I fully agree. I’ll take as many Nola shares as I can get my hands on, especially on DraftKings ($8,000) and FantasyDraft ($15,600).

Quick Breakdown: Nola has been great at home, he’s underpriced, and he comes into the start in great form. Nola is viable in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

The Nationals draw one of the worst matchups of the slate. In addition to his elite strikeout rate and elite ground ball rate, Aaron Nola has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA and under a 34% hard contact rate this season. The Nationals do see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Citizens Bank Park, but they have little to play for and a difficult matchup. Don’t be surprised if we see some ugly lineups from this team in the next few days.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.358 0.318 0.201 27.0% 6.4% 18.0% 50.4% SS $4,100 SS $5,200 IF/OF $10,200
2 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.383 0.369 0.225 34.7% 9.5% 10.9% 33.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.455 0.438 0.350 35.9% 16.7% 16.4% 37.2% OF $4,000 OF $5,000 RF $9,600
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.373 0.369 0.248 39.0% 7.5% 23.1% 47.0% 1B $3,500 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
5 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.379 0.355 0.211 33.3% 13.0% 14.5% 34.9% 3B $3,900 3B $4,200 3B $8,000
6 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.313 0.318 0.170 29.9% 11.1% 23.7% 43.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
7 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.325 0.280 0.209 33.5% 6.6% 32.8% 42.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.264 0.298 0.109 29.6% 7.8% 18.8% 41.7% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,400
9 A.J. Cole RIGHT 0.077 0.000 20.0% 11.1% 33.3% 80.0% P $6,600 P $6,100 P $12,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

The Phillies aren’t playing for a shot at the playoffs, but their young players still have a lot to prove. They have won five of their last ten games, which is nice to see from a team that has the second-worst record in the National League. Tonight’s matchup against A.J. Cole is an exploitable one. In seven starts this season, he has allowed a .379 xwOBA and a 46% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. The first three batters in the Phillies’ projected lineup are all viable here, as is Rhys Hoskins, who owns a .389 ISO against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.324 0.305 0.164 27.4% 6.9% 22.1% 41.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.307 0.293 0.144 27.9% 7.8% 19.1% 35.7% SS $2,700 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
3 Nick Williams LEFT 0.349 0.324 0.212 40.4% 6.1% 28.5% 49.3% OF $3,400 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
4 Rhys Hoskins RIGHT 0.456 0.387 0.389 47.5% 14.1% 22.7% 27.5% 1B $4,200 1B/OF $5,400 1B $10,400
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.380 0.332 0.249 37.0% 6.9% 28.6% 40.1% OF $3,200 OF $4,400 LF $8,400
6 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.293 0.307 0.167 29.2% 6.4% 15.3% 43.7% 3B $2,600 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
7 J.P. Crawford LEFT 0.349 0.309 0.147 19.2% 12.5% 22.5% 30.8% SS $2,800 3B/SS $3,100 SS $6,000
8 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.282 0.278 0.217 26.5% 7.0% 36.3% 48.8% C $2,100 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.126 0.129 0.000 0.0% 9.1% 52.3% 80.0% P $9,300 P $8,000 P $15,600

Elite Plays – Odubel Herrera

Secondary Plays – Freddy Galvis, Nick Williams, Rhys Hoskins

Stackability – YELLOW


Toronto at Boston – 7:10 PM ET

Toronto Boston
torontomlb Brett Anderson bostonmlb Drew Pomeranz
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-210 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.457 0.452 50.0% 7.9% 13.2% 56.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.305 33.0% 9.3% 28.4% 35.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.379 37.1% 8.6% 15.5% 45.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.311 32.6% 9.4% 23.0% 44.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brett Anderson
brett-anderson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,400
Salary Rank: 20 of 22 Salary Rank: 18 of 22 Salary Rank: 15 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 5.10 11.91 8.1% 6.5% 50.0% 35.9% 24.5%
2017 11 4.91 7.15 15.1% 8.5% 47.2% 39.5% 20.4%
L30 5 4.66 6.17 15.8% 5.9% 44.2% 44.3% 17.7%

In this series, we have two teams with very different motivations. The Red Sox are a couple wins away from clinching the division, while the Blue Jays have already been eliminated from postseason contention. Again, with only one week left to play, I want to target players that still have something to prove or to play for. I’m not seeing a lot of that on Toronto’s side. Anderson has not been sharp in his 11 starts this season, posting a 4.91 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15%. He gives up a lot of hard contact and is facing a tough Red Sox offense in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Quick Breakdown: There are better options than Anderson for both cash games and tournaments.

Drew Pomeranz
drew-pomeranz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,700 Salary: $9,200 Salary: $17,700
Salary Rank: 5 of 22 Salary Rank: 4 of 22 Salary Rank: 4 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.80 3.32 26.5% 9.3% 46.2% 31.5% 19.1%
2017 30 4.24 3.15 24.2% 9.4% 42.9% 32.7% 20.7%
L30 6 4.72 2.57 23.3% 12.0% 43.0% 34.0% 13.8%

Pomeranz is an intriguing tournament play at home against the Blue Jays, but there are some red flags. Even though his ERA (2.57) in his last six starts looks encouraging, he has a 4.72 SIERA with a walk rate of 12% during that stretch. Toronto may not have anything to play for, but they still have a few right-handed power bats in their lineup that can ruin a southpaw’s outing in a hurry. However, it’s worth noting that Pomeranz has held the current Blue Jays’ roster to a .272 wOBA with 30 strikeouts in 121 plate appearances.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz has some appeal in tournaments, but all else being equal, I prefer Darvish, Nola, Godley, and Weaver.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays are an easy offense to break down when they are facing a left-handed pitcher. Josh Donaldson (.393 xwOBA), Justin Smoak (.416 xwOBA), and Kendrys Morales (.369 xwOBA) all mash southpaws, while the rest of the lineup struggles mightily. These three righties are all viable one-off targets in this ballpark, but they are far from core plays in tonight’s nine game slate. With one week left to play, I want to focus on the hitters and the offenses that still have something driving them.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Teoscar Hernandez RIGHT 0.063 0.000 25.0% 0.0% 42.9% 25.0% OF $2,700 OF $2,700 CF $5,400
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.399 0.393 0.324 39.7% 16.9% 18.0% 39.7% 3B $3,500 3B $4,500 3B $8,700
3 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.431 0.416 0.248 36.7% 13.6% 12.1% 35.7% 1B $2,900 1B $4,200 1B $8,100
4 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.265 0.252 0.132 22.2% 10.8% 27.0% 46.7% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.408 0.369 0.223 42.6% 6.2% 21.5% 58.5% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300 1B $6,400
6 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.288 0.341 0.136 34.2% 16.4% 26.0% 30.0% C $2,700 C $3,400 C $6,600
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.391 0.347 0.226 29.9% 6.7% 14.1% 37.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 CF $6,000
8 Darwin Barney RIGHT 0.281 0.260 0.043 14.8% 9.3% 21.7% 48.3% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $2,600 2B $5,100
9 Richard Urena SWITCH 0.326 0.000 40.0% 13.3% 20.0% 30.0% SS $2,200 SS $3,300 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak, Kendrys Morales

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

It’s only a matter of time before the Red Sox get to start their celebration. While they don’t have a pool to jump into, they will be popping champagne after another win or two. With seven games to play, they have a five game lead over the Yankees in the AL East. In other words, we only have a couple more games to target them during the regular season before their motivation changes. Tonight is a great night to load up on the Sox of Red, as they take on a very hittable Brett Anderson. On the season, he has allowed a .452 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .379 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. The best part is that thanks to Coors Field, the Red Sox stack will be under-owned in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.323 0.295 0.115 28.7% 10.1% 16.0% 54.0% SS $3,500 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
2 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 0.392 0.397 0.131 32.7% 17.1% 10.5% 38.9% 2B $3,100 2B $3,500 2B $6,800
3 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.290 0.306 0.056 25.3% 14.3% 16.7% 51.2% OF $4,100 OF $5,000 LF $9,600
4 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.381 0.370 0.215 34.6% 15.3% 8.3% 42.7% OF $4,500 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
5 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.294 0.349 0.222 37.5% 13.9% 23.5% 38.9% 1B $2,700 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
6 Sam Travis RIGHT 0.434 0.333 0.132 22.6% 11.4% 15.9% 41.9% 1B $2,000 1B $2,900 1B $5,600
7 Deven Marrero RIGHT 0.410 0.363 0.333 35.0% 7.1% 21.4% 42.5% 3B $2,200 3B $3,300 3B $6,600
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.304 0.294 0.129 25.0% 10.3% 17.9% 39.3% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.350 0.326 0.140 26.7% 9.8% 17.9% 61.6% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 CF $7,600

Elite Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Sam Travis, Deven Marrero

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Houston at Texas – 8:05 PM ET

Houston Texas
houstonmlb Collin McHugh texasmlb Andrew Cashner
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-114 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.311 24.0% 5.9% 17.8% 32.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.326 30.0% 11.5% 12.1% 37.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.312 35.5% 8.3% 25.0% 32.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.302 0.326 28.2% 7.0% 12.8% 58.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Collin McHugh
collin-mchugh-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $15,600
Salary Rank: 7 of 22 Salary Rank: 7 of 22 Salary Rank: 6 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.02 4.34 22.2% 6.8% 41.3% 30.2% 20.0%
2017 10 4.42 3.44 21.7% 7.2% 32.9% 29.8% 9.3%
L30 4 4.50 2.41 21.3% 7.5% 33.3% 34.6% 10.9%

Motivation is important to keep in mind at this point of the season, but so is the weather. When it gets cold, the ball doesn’t travel as far and we see a sharp decline in offensive production. We don’t have to worry about that in Texas though, as the game-time temperature is expected to be in the upper-80s. In my humble opinion, this is actually a better hitting environment than Coors Field is tonight. If that’s the case, then we should want no part of these two starting pitchers. McHugh has decent numbers this season, but he’s overpriced for a bad matchup against the Rangers in Arlington.

Quick Breakdown: McHugh should be avoided in both cash games and tournaments.

Andrew Cashner
andrew-cashner-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,900
Salary Rank: 11 of 22 Salary Rank: 14 of 22 Salary Rank: 12 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 27 4.72 5.25 19.1% 10.2% 46.5% 35.8% 12.5%
2017 26 5.50 3.44 12.5% 9.1% 48.5% 29.0% 18.7%
L30 6 5.31 3.86 13.5% 7.7% 43.8% 28.1% 21.5%

The Cashner tilt has been real this season. If you have tried a stack against him, then you know exactly what I’m talking about. Somehow, someway, he manages to pitch out of trouble on a regular basis. I’m stealing this statistic from CheeseIsGood’s answer in the Expert Survey — Cashner hasn’t allowed more than five runs since September 12, 2016. He’s not a good pitcher to target in DFS thanks to a lack of strikeout upside, but he’s not the best pitcher to stack against either. The fact that Cashner owns a 3.44 ERA proves that dark magic might exist.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Cashner in all formats, but don’t be shocked if he holds the Astros to three runs.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros are not my favorite offense to stack tonight. In fact, I put them as my stack to fade in the aforementioned Expert Survey. The reasoning is fairly simple. Andrew Cashner has powers beyond our comprehension that allow him to routinely escape trouble. It also doesn’t help that three key pieces of the Astros’ stack (George Springer, Jose Altuve, and Carlos Correa) are all right-handed. Cashner has a 58% ground ball rate against righties this season. That doesn’t mean that we have to fade the Astros entirely, but they are best suited as one-offs or two-man stacks in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.364 0.361 0.232 37.7% 8.8% 19.9% 49.4% OF $3,100 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.363 0.334 0.188 33.0% 8.3% 11.9% 33.3% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 RF $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.410 0.358 0.209 29.3% 8.9% 12.8% 45.4% 2B $4,200 2B $5,300 2B $10,400
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.356 0.374 0.215 37.6% 10.9% 20.9% 47.3% SS $3,400 SS $4,500 SS $8,700
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.387 0.331 0.226 34.8% 9.3% 20.3% 43.5% OF $3,100 OF/SS $4,400 IF/OF $8,400
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.328 0.329 0.171 32.5% 8.3% 16.4% 40.9% 3B $3,500 3B/SS $4,200 3B $8,000
7 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.305 0.300 0.180 32.6% 7.1% 18.0% 42.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
8 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.358 0.332 0.197 33.3% 2.6% 9.5% 44.8% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,800
9 Brian McCann LEFT 0.311 0.326 0.171 33.7% 9.5% 14.5% 39.4% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,600

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

It doesn’t feel right saying this in a game with Andrew Cashner on the mound, but the Rangers are actually my preferred offense to target tonight. They draw a decent matchup against Collin McHugh, who has an extreme fly-ball rate. This is one of the only spots with favorable conditions for hitters and we know that the ball carries well in Arlington this time of year. McHugh is going to allow a lot of fly balls and something tells me that a few of them will find their way into the stands (hopefully in the outfield). The Rangers will get overlooked in all formats, making them one of the more intriguing stacks for large-field tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.318 0.253 0.078 24.0% 9.6% 22.4% 51.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.340 0.337 0.200 34.7% 10.6% 19.2% 42.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
3 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.347 0.303 0.171 29.9% 5.6% 15.3% 48.7% SS $3,300 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
4 Adrian Beltre RIGHT 0.364 0.343 0.221 35.5% 8.6% 14.5% 45.0% 3B $3,300 3B $4,300 3B $8,400
5 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.363 0.350 0.241 42.2% 8.3% 28.8% 38.3% OF $3,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
6 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.359 0.369 0.340 46.3% 14.1% 35.2% 29.5% 1B $2,900 1B/3B $3,400 IF/OF $6,600
7 Robinson Chirinos RIGHT 0.342 0.326 0.245 34.4% 10.5% 26.5% 43.7% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.300 0.305 0.231 39.1% 4.8% 24.6% 38.5% 2B $2,500 2B $3,400 2B $6,600
9 Drew Robinson LEFT 0.298 0.285 0.200 33.3% 13.6% 38.3% 48.7% 2B $2,000 2B/OF $2,100 IF/OF $4,000

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Shin-Soo Choo

Secondary Plays – Delino DeShields, Adrian Beltre, Carlos Gomez, Joey Gallo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


LA Angels at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

LA Angels Chicago White Sox
laangelsmlb Ricky Nolasco whitesoxmlb James Shields
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAA-140 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.332 0.349 35.3% 8.3% 15.1% 41.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.395 0.367 32.6% 12.0% 17.1% 40.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.382 0.366 38.7% 6.8% 22.0% 41.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.314 0.337 33.3% 8.8% 21.9% 35.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ricky Nolasco
ricky-nolasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $5,400 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 18 of 22 Salary Rank: 19 of 22 Salary Rank: 17 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.39 4.42 17.6% 5.4% 43.1% 34.1% 14.4%
2017 31 4.73 5.06 18.5% 7.6% 41.0% 37.0% 14.5%
L30 5 5.57 5.13 14.9% 9.7% 35.3% 34.9% 14.0%

Good and bad news with Ricky Nolasco. The Angels need a win (good) and he’s facing a White Sox offense that closely resembles a Triple-A lineup (good). However, he’s still Nolasco (bad) and he still gives up way too many home runs (bad). We aren’t going to consider Nolasco on single-pitcher sites and there are some incredible values (Mariners) on both DraftKings and FantasyDraft, so we don’t really need the salary savings at SP2. The run support should be strong with James Shields pitching opposite him, but Nolasco will likely give up a number of runs himself.

Quick Breakdown: Even if we like the spot for Nolasco, we don’t need the value at SP2 tonight. He’s an easy fade in all formats.

James Shields
james-shields-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 16 of 22 Salary Rank: 15 of 22 Salary Rank: 13 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.12 5.85 16.4% 10.0% 40.4% 33.8% 15.3%
2017 20 5.03 5.40 19.4% 10.4% 38.1% 32.9% 19.4%
L30 6 4.86 4.75 20.5% 10.6% 41.3% 28.9% 26.0%

Shields is “who we thought he was.” He had a decent stretch of starts last month, but make no mistake about it — he’s one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. In 20 starts this season, he owns a 5.03 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19%, a walk rate of 10%, and a hard contact rate of 33%. For him to have success, he needs to strike hitters out, which doesn’t bode well for a matchup against the Angels, who have the sixth-lowest k-rate against right-handed pitching this season. In a potential shootout, both starting pitchers should be avoided.

Quick Breakdown: Shields has more downside than upside, especially in a matchup against the low-strikeout Angels.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels draw one of the best matchups of the slate. Guaranteed Rate Field is a sneaky hitter’s park and they get to square off against James Shields, who has bad command and is a fly-ball pitcher that allows a lot of hard contact. Not only that, but over the course of the season, Shields has given up a .367 xwOBA to left-handed hitters and a .337 xwOBA to right-handed hitters. The Angels are basically in must win mode the rest of the way, so every game matters. A stack is firmly in play here, while Mike Trout and Justin Upton stand out as two of the top hitting options in the entire slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.320 0.329 0.148 32.4% 10.8% 21.5% 42.5% OF $3,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,600
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.455 0.433 0.356 39.4% 17.8% 18.3% 33.8% OF $4,300 OF $5,200 CF $10,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.354 0.344 0.227 41.0% 11.9% 29.9% 34.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.293 0.332 0.170 36.9% 5.1% 14.4% 42.4% 1B $2,900 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
5 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.320 0.301 0.138 25.1% 3.1% 11.8% 50.7% 2B $3,000 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.330 0.304 0.155 30.4% 5.2% 10.0% 48.7% SS $2,500 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
7 Luis Valbuena LEFT 0.317 0.309 0.246 34.9% 11.4% 27.2% 34.5% 3B $2,800 1B/3B $2,700 3B $5,200
8 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.331 0.349 0.183 35.9% 6.5% 23.8% 31.1% 1B $3,500 1B $3,300 1B $6,600
9 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.280 0.281 0.170 28.1% 2.1% 25.4% 48.1% C $2,000 C $2,200 C $4,200

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Kole Calhoun, Albert Pujols, Brandon Phillips

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox would be my favorite cheap stack tonight if, in fact, they were cheap. Unfortunately, their prices have come up on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Even with the price bump, they find themselves with a great matchup at home against Ricky Nolasco, who has more home runs allowed than starts this season. In terms of splits, Nolasco has been kind to batters from both sides of the plate, allowing a .349 xwOBA to lefties and a .366 xwOBA to righties. I don’t like to make home run predictions often in the Grind Down, but I feel awfully good about Jose Abreu tonight. He loves facing fly-ball pitchers, especially in this ballpark.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.321 0.290 0.154 26.3% 7.3% 19.9% 45.4% 3B $3,100 2B/3B $3,500 2B $6,800
2 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.358 0.337 0.221 45.9% 15.2% 34.4% 47.5% 2B $3,900 2B $4,000 2B $7,800
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.358 0.352 0.234 39.2% 5.0% 16.9% 45.6% 1B $3,700 1B $4,200 1B $8,000
4 Nick Delmonico LEFT 0.372 0.313 0.224 26.9% 13.1% 18.2% 43.8% OF $2,400 1B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
5 Avisail Garcia RIGHT 0.350 0.350 0.173 32.1% 5.7% 20.8% 52.7% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 RF $6,800
6 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.314 0.315 0.059 19.8% 12.1% 13.8% 42.4% C $2,200 C $2,700 C $5,400
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.276 0.258 0.152 28.8% 2.7% 27.6% 52.5% SS $4,000 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
8 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.294 0.286 0.247 39.4% 4.0% 41.1% 36.9% 3B $2,600 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,900
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.227 0.228 0.119 29.7% 4.7% 37.7% 40.9% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 CF $6,000

Elite Plays – Yolmer Sanchez, Jose Abreu, Nick Delmonico (FD)

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Nick Delmonico (DK & FDRFT), Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN


Chicago Cubs at St. Louis – 8:15 PM ET

Chicago Cubs St. Louis
cubsmlb Jon Lester stlouismlb Luke Weaver
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-135 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.253 0.236 24.0% 3.1% 33.3% 54.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.225 0.230 18.2% 3.5% 30.6% 51.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.318 28.0% 9.5% 20.7% 45.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.282 0.264 26.7% 6.6% 32.0% 55.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $8,400 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 6 of 22 Salary Rank: 5 of 22 Salary Rank: 5 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 30 4.08 4.56 23.5% 8.1% 47.2% 27.2% 21.5%
L30 4 5.66 5.91 14.3% 12.2% 47.8% 29.6% 25.4%

The Cubs have all but wrapped up their division and are essentially locked into the three seed in the National League. With only one week to play, they will be more concerned about staying fresh and staying healthy (sounds like a Subway commercial). Lester comes into this start looking for a spark. He has been dreadful in his last four outings, posting a 5.66 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 14% and a walk rate of 12%. I typically don’t like to target pitchers in bad form, especially when they are playing on the road in a subpar matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is an easy fade tonight against the Cardinals.

Luke Weaver
luke-weaver-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,500 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 22 Salary Rank: 3 of 22 Salary Rank: 3 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 3.55 5.70 27.0% 7.2% 30.7% 32.4% 17.6%
2017 8 2.81 2.05 31.4% 5.3% 53.9% 23.1% 19.2%
L30 6 2.23 1.49 35.0% 2.9% 55.8% 22.1% 22.1%

Cy Weaver has been incredible in his eight major league starts this season, posting a 2.81 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. I love pitchers that throw a lot of strikes, especially when they also have an elite ground ball rate (54%). It looks like his success is sustainable, but tonight he’ll get one of his toughest tests to date. The Cubs have had one of the best offenses in baseball since the All-Star break and they are a patient team that likes to work counts to their favor. Even though the matchup isn’t great, I’m still buying Weaver as an elite tournament option tonight. The strikeout upside is there and the Cubs might take their foot off the gas a little with only a week in the regular season.

Quick Breakdown: Weaver is an elite GPP play tonight and is worth a look as an SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are small underdogs tonight on the road and they come into the game with one of the lowest implied run totals of the slate. They draw a difficult matchup against Luke Weaver, who has really impressed in his eight starts this season. In addition to the elite strikeout and ground ball rates, Weaver has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .265 xwOBA and under a 27% hard contact rate. We have an offense that may not be motivated in a tough matchup on the road.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.326 0.316 0.100 29.4% 8.1% 19.9% 46.8% OF $3,100 OF $3,500 CF $6,900
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.393 0.347 0.249 31.4% 12.5% 20.2% 37.8% 3B $4,300 3B $5,000 IF/OF $9,900
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.388 0.407 0.238 35.1% 13.9% 12.7% 39.1% 1B $3,900 1B $5,100 1B $10,000
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.323 0.335 0.146 32.9% 11.6% 14.2% 51.4% OF $3,000 2B/OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
5 Alex Avila LEFT 0.380 0.419 0.215 54.3% 16.7% 32.4% 37.0% C $2,400 1B/C $3,200 C $6,300
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.343 0.354 0.282 38.0% 11.4% 29.7% 38.4% OF $3,300 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
7 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.313 0.327 0.131 26.3% 9.6% 11.0% 48.9% OF $2,700 OF $3,000 RF $6,000
8 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.304 0.274 0.182 28.9% 5.9% 29.1% 50.9% 2B $3,200 2B/SS $4,000 2B $7,800
9 Jon Lester LEFT 0.208 0.234 0.088 34.8% 5.0% 37.5% 60.0% P $8,400 P $8,400 P $16,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

St. Louis

The Cardinals’ matchup against Jon Lester doesn’t look great on paper, especially if you only look at his season-long statistics. He has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA and under a 28% hard contact rate on the year. What those numbers don’t show is how bad Lester has looked in his last four starts. They also fail to mention how bad he is at holding runners. The Cardinals are a sneaky offense to target tonight, especially since they are in must-win mode from here on out. They are two and a half games behind the Rockies for the second wildcard spot on the National League.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.306 0.362 0.123 35.9% 15.8% 23.3% 35.5% 1B $4,200 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.399 0.373 0.272 37.1% 15.9% 21.2% 52.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,800 CF $9,300
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.400 0.284 0.320 37.5% 9.6% 32.5% 39.6% SS $3,000 2B/SS $4,100 SS $8,100
4 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.546 0.535 0.448 40.4% 13.4% 16.4% 31.9% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
5 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.330 0.350 0.180 34.9% 11.5% 15.0% 47.0% OF $4,000 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
6 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.356 0.421 0.283 45.4% 4.3% 10.3% 35.1% C $3,200 C $3,700 C $7,200
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.321 0.322 0.071 28.1% 12.0% 18.1% 56.6% 2B $3,200 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.283 0.345 0.200 40.3% 6.9% 27.5% 31.3% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Luke Weaver RIGHT 0.146 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $9,500 P $9,900 P $19,200

Elite Plays – Yadier Molina

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Paul DeJong, Jose Martinez, Dexter Fowler

Stackability – YELLOW


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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious