MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-09-03 18:12:03

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Atlanta – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Boston								Atlanta
			Nathan Eovaldi							Touki Toussaint
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-116							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.340	0.327	34.9%	1.38	18.0%	44.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.131	0.261	10.0%	0.00	8.3%	60.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.273	0.285	34.8%	1.39	21.7%	46.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.265	0.278	20.0%	0.00	30.0%	20.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Nathan Eovaldi
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,100	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:		$14,500
	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:			12 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29

	2018	17	3.88	4.35	19.7%	3.2%	45.6%	34.8%	18.8%	97.1	10.3%
	L14	3	4.45	9.53	12.1%	1.7%	51.0%	38.8%	16.3%	97.5	10.9%

Happy Labor Day and happy opening week to the NFL season. Before we get into the games, I wanted to quickly bring up the great new stuff we have at RotoAcademy. We have a few new courses that were just released last week (including a video course with the NFL OGs — myself, beer and chop), so be sure to sharpen your skills before the NFL season starts.

There are technically ten early games on the schedule, but only the first seven are included in the early slates on FanDuel and DraftKings. Eovaldi only threw 35 pitches in Friday’s rain-shortened game, so he’ll take the mound on short rest today against the Braves. He’s been a serviceable pitcher this season, although his numbers have tailed off considerably over his last five starts. Overall, he owns a 3.88 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 3%. While he does get to play in a pitcher-friendly NL ballpark, this game is basically set as a pick ‘em with a total of 9.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Eovaldi in both cash games and tournaments.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Touki Toussaint
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:			$7,000	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:			27 of 29	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29

	2018	1	4.48	1.50	18.2%	9.1%	46.7%	13.3%	26.7%	93.4	7.2%

Toussaint is a 22-year old righty that will be making his second career major league start. He’s one of the top pitching prospects for the Braves and we can see why by looking at his numbers at the Triple-A level — 2.18 FIP with a strikeout rate of 28%. He’s still unproven at the major league level and he draws a difficult matchup against the Red Sox. Even though they will lose the use of the DH in this series, Boston’s projected lineup still boasts an average xwOBA of .357 against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Toussaint, but avoid him today against the Red Sox.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are facing a talented young pitching prospect in Touki Toussaint. While these pitching debuts can turn ugly quickly, Boston sees a negative ballpark shift playing in Atlanta and they lose the use of the DH. It’s always hard to predict what is going to happen in these matchups because we are dealing with limited data. I don’t see this as a full stacking opportunity, but Mookie Betts is one of my favorite hitters to pay up for in the early slate. He brings both speed and power to the plate. Mitch Moreland is one of the better value plays over on FanDuel ($2,900).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.449	0.276	44.2%	11.4%	14.2%	33.6%	OF	$5,200	OF	$6,000	RF	$11,300
2	Andrew Benintendi	LEFT	0.396	0.201	29.6%	12.9%	14.7%	38.2%	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,400	LF	$10,600
3	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.419	0.228	37.3%	10.2%	19.8%	40.8%	1B	$2,900	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,300
4	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.456	0.344	46.0%	10.9%	22.5%	44.3%	OF	$4,800	OF	$5,700	RF	$10,400
5	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.381	0.256	37.5%	6.9%	16.4%	46.9%	SS	$3,700	SS	$4,700	SS	$9,100
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.276	0.139	26.4%	2.1%	14.6%	49.8%	3B	$2,500	2B/3B	$4,100	2B	$8,400
7	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.338	0.194	31.6%	8.4%	10.5%	37.6%	2B	$2,600	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,000
8	Sandy Leon	SWITCH	0.264	0.122	26.8%	3.2%	25.4%	41.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,800
9	Nathan Eovaldi	RIGHT	0.236	0.000	50.0%	16.7%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$7,100	P	$7,600	P	$14,500
	Team Averages		0.357	0.196	36.6%	9.2%	20.9%	42.5%

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Mitch Moreland (FD)

Secondary Plays – Mitch Moreland (DK), Andrew Benintendi, J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Eduardo Nunez

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

The Braves are a sneaky stack in the early slate. While Nathan Eovaldi has elite velocity on his fastball, he doesn’t generate many swings and misses. No matter how hard you throw, you have to be able to miss bats to have a high strikeout rate. On the season, he has allowed a .327 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to left-handed hitters. Freddie Freeman (.404 xwOBA against righties) makes a ton of sense as a one-off and you can build a stack around him with Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, and Johan Camargo.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.398	0.277	49.1%	7.3%	26.3%	39.3%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,200	LF	$9,900
2	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.297	0.132	31.1%	7.0%	12.8%	42.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,400
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.404	0.173	43.2%	12.2%	17.9%	34.9%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,600	1B	$9,400
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.388	0.163	41.1%	10.3%	9.2%	40.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,400
5	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.313	0.165	36.4%	10.8%	20.6%	47.1%	3B	$3,200	3B/SS	$4,300	3B	$8,000
6	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.300	0.187	34.5%	5.2%	18.1%	37.0%	2B	$3,300	2B	$4,500	2B	$9,000
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.319	0.073	47.7%	7.1%	24.4%	40.4%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.284	0.168	34.8%	6.7%	23.4%	42.6%	SS	$2,300	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
9	Touki Toussaint	RIGHT	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,500	P	$7,000	P	$13,900
	Team Averages		0.300	0.149	35.3%	7.4%	28.1%	36.1%

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ronald Acuna, Nick Markakis, Johan Camargo, Kurt Suzuki or Tyler Flowers (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW

St. Louis at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Washington
			Jack Flaherty							Max Scherzer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-170							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.259	0.282	33.8%	0.88	26.5%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.257	0.250	26.6%	0.94	31.3%	36.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.283	0.269	35.8%	1.48	34.7%	40.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.234	0.268	33.7%	0.99	37.6%	35.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jack Flaherty
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$10,100	Salary:			$10,200	Salary:		$19,900
	Salary Rank:			3 of 29	Salary Rank:			3 of 29	Salary Rank:		3 of 29
	2017	5	4.62	6.33	21.3%	10.6%	47.6%	31.8%	15.9%	93.2	13.1%
	2018	22	3.30	2.87	30.6%	8.4%	42.6%	34.7%	20.8%	92.6	13.4%
	L14	2	2.59	1.38	34.1%	4.6%	37.0%	48.2%	25.9%	93.1	19.6%

Flaherty has been a man amongst boys this season, although his pitching opponent is like Goliath. We have two aces on the mound today, which should set up for a classic pitcher’s duel. In 22 starts this season, Flaherty owns a 3.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He’s been tough on both left and right-handed hitters and he gets to play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. The issue for me is his matchup against the Nationals, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .340 with a strikeout rate of only 18% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Flaherty has the skill set to pitch well in any matchup, but he feels a bit overpriced in this slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Max Scherzer
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$11,500	Salary:			$12,200	Salary:		$24,000
	Salary Rank:			2 of 29	Salary Rank:			2 of 29	Salary Rank:		2 of 29
	2017	31	2.98	2.51	34.4%	7.1%	36.5%	26.5%	19.5%	94.1	15.5%
	2018	28	2.75	2.22	34.3%	6.2%	35.7%	29.8%	24.6%	94.4	15.9%
	L14	2	3.43	3.75	31.9%	8.5%	26.9%	18.5%	22.2%	94.9	11.1%

Mad Max is back on the mound today, which should leave the Cardinals’ hitters shaking in their cleats. In 28 starts this season, he owns a 2.75 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 34% and a soft contact rate of 25%. Think about that for a minute — he strikes out over one-third of the batters that he faces and one-fourth of the ones that manage to put the ball in play are making soft contact. The Cardinals have some firepower offensively, but their projected lineup has an average k-rate of 22% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Scherzer is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

This is not the game that you want to target for hitters. We have the two most talented pitchers of the early slate squaring off in a ballpark that favors the pitcher. In addition to having elite strikeout and soft contact rates, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA this season. The Cardinals are an easy fade as a whole.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.436	0.304	49.4%	14.9%	22.8%	20.6%	1B	$4,100	1B/3B	$4,500	3B	$9,200
2	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.348	0.171	45.2%	5.8%	13.4%	41.2%	C	$3,100	C	$3,300	C	$6,400
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.395	0.172	40.4%	8.1%	16.7%	48.1%	OF	$3,700	1B/OF	$3,500	IF/OF	$6,400
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.351	0.119	45.2%	5.8%	17.7%	48.2%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,300
5	Paul DeJong	RIGHT	0.358	0.207	38.6%	6.4%	25.5%	32.1%	SS	$3,300	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,900
6	Greg Garcia	LEFT	0.305	0.063	28.3%	9.1%	15.2%	45.2%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$2,500	2B	$5,000
7	Harrison Bader	RIGHT	0.275	0.142	36.1%	7.1%	32.0%	44.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
8	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.282	0.098	37.6%	6.3%	21.6%	57.6%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300
9	Jack Flaherty	RIGHT	0.190	0.000	23.8%	2.9%	37.1%	64.7%	P	$10,100	P	$10,200	P	$19,900
	Team Averages		0.327	0.142	38.3%	7.4%	22.4%	44.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals are sizable favorites today at home, but their matchup against Jack Flaherty is far from appealing. He’s still not a household name, but he has the skill set to become one. He owns a massive 31% strikeout rate and on the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .290 xwOBA. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper both feel a bit underpriced on DraftKings, but I will be targeting some of the more exploitable matchups in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Eaton	LEFT	0.369	0.136	36.5%	8.8%	15.9%	44.9%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,200
2	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.316	0.140	30.3%	7.9%	20.0%	52.1%	SS	$3,400	SS	$4,500	IF/OF	$9,100
3	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.390	0.270	42.3%	17.0%	25.1%	36.6%	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,300
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.381	0.196	35.8%	8.2%	13.7%	36.3%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,200
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.383	0.212	35.9%	18.3%	19.3%	50.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	LF	$8,900
6	Ryan Zimmerman	RIGHT	0.388	0.216	40.3%	6.8%	18.6%	48.8%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,900	1B	$7,300
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.305	0.135	33.3%	7.5%	15.0%	38.2%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
8	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.291	0.126	21.2%	7.2%	15.9%	42.4%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,800
9	Max Scherzer	RIGHT	0.233	0.047	17.5%	0.0%	14.3%	68.6%	P	$11,500	P	$12,200	P	$24,000
	Team Averages		0.340	0.164	32.6%	9.1%	17.5%	46.5%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Miami
			Vince Velasquez							Jose Urena
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-132							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.339	0.322	33.9%	1.56	24.1%	39.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.324	0.354	41.9%	1.35	16.5%	49.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.273	0.285	31.5%	0.41	28.3%	37.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.292	0.299	37.3%	0.64	20.4%	54.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Vince Velasquez
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,600	Salary:			$7,400	Salary:		$14,400
	Salary Rank:			17 of 29	Salary Rank:			13 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	2017	15	4.73	5.13	21.6%	10.8%	42.5%	38.1%	15.2%	93.9	9.1%
	2018	25	3.96	4.05	26.2%	9.8%	38.6%	32.8%	15.8%	93.9	11.4%
	L14	2	4.52	3.00	24.3%	10.8%	25.0%	33.3%	4.2%	93.4	8.5%

Velasquez hasn’t been in the best of form in the second half of the season, but he has an above-average strikeout rate at a below-average price point. We should always have interest in high-strikeout pitchers, especially discounted ones in favorable matchups. The Marlins’ projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .285 with a strikeout rate of 24% against right-handed pitching. He sees a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miami and he should have the platoon advantage over a right-handed heavy offense.

Quick Breakdown: Velasquez is an elite SP2 in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Jose Urena
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,200	Salary:			$6,400	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:			22 of 29	Salary Rank:			21 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29
	2017	28	5.19	3.82	15.6%	8.8%	43.1%	31.8%	18.4%	95.5	8.2%
	2018	26	4.26	4.56	18.4%	7.0%	51.6%	39.8%	15.2%	95.7	8.6%
	L14	2	5.33	3.00	10.7%	8.9%	50.0%	24.4%	15.6%	96.6	9.1%

Urena isn’t a pitcher that anyone gets excited to target in DFS, but he’s not the worst play in this seven-game early slate. He has been significantly better at home than he has been on the road and he’s facing a right-handed heavy Phillies’ offense that has a 21% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Urena isn’t a priority play by any means and I certainly prefer Vince Velasquez over him, but he would make the player pool if I was building five or more lineups.

Quick Breakdown: Urena is a decent SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies see a negative ballpark shift playing in Miami, but it’s not all bad news. A matchup against Jose Urena should help soften the blow a bit. He has a below-average strikeout rate and has struggled with left-handed hitters this season, allowing a .354 xwOBA and a 42% hard contact rate. Carlos Santana, Nick Williams, and Asdrubal Cabrera all bat from the left side and all boast an xwOBA of at least .350 against right-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.366	0.178	34.7%	18.2%	16.2%	38.9%	1B	$3,100	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,100
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.374	0.272	37.3%	11.4%	24.3%	29.6%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,200
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.306	0.193	26.0%	7.4%	19.9%	39.7%	OF	$2,300	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
4	Wilson Ramos	RIGHT	0.361	0.180	42.4%	7.9%	19.4%	54.3%	C	$3,400	C	$4,300	C	$8,400
5	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.379	0.207	33.2%	8.0%	21.9%	42.6%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,600
6	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.354	0.233	42.5%	7.0%	22.1%	38.8%	SS	$2,700	2B/SS	$3,900	SS	$7,700
7	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.325	0.222	26.4%	5.4%	14.1%	52.0%	3B	$3,300	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,400
8	Vince Velasquez	RIGHT	0.189	0.037	18.2%	0.0%	26.7%	78.9%	P	$6,600	P	$7,400	P	$14,400
9	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.312	0.118	23.1%	14.1%	22.5%	41.6%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,700
	Team Averages		0.330	0.182	31.5%	8.8%	20.8%	46.3%

Elite Plays – Carlos Santana (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana (Cash), Rhys Hoskins, Odubel Herrera, Nick Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Miami

The Marlins haven’t been a great offense to target in DFS this season. They don’t have much talent to begin with and it doesn’t help that their home park is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. They draw a fairly difficult matchup today against Vince Velasquez, who has an above-average strikeout rate and who has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	JT Riddle	LEFT	0.318	0.164	33.3%	7.5%	19.2%	46.8%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,400
2	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.354	0.120	38.9%	7.7%	17.0%	53.1%	3B	$3,200	3B/OF	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,500
3	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.370	0.218	39.2%	6.9%	17.5%	42.4%	C	$3,600	C	$4,700	C	$9,100
4	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.328	0.124	36.4%	6.9%	18.8%	49.5%	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,100	2B	$8,200
5	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.336	0.049	36.4%	7.6%	9.1%	44.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,500
6	Lewis Brinson	RIGHT	0.280	0.140	41.6%	3.6%	32.3%	53.7%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,800	CF	$5,700
7	Austin Dean	RIGHT	0.332	0.231	45.2%	2.5%	20.0%	41.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,600
8	Magneuris Sierra	LEFT	0.166	0.013	19.7%	1.2%	23.5%	58.8%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,900
9	Jose Urena	RIGHT	0.081	0.053	37.5%	0.0%	60.0%	66.7%	P	$6,200	P	$6,400	P	$12,800
	Team Averages		0.285	0.124	36.5%	4.9%	24.2%	50.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – JT Riddle or Rafael Ortega (whoever bats leadoff)

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								Pittsburgh
			Matt Harvey							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-133							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.351	0.365	42.2%	1.87	17.4%	38.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.292	0.341	29.1%	1.05	11.8%	38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.328	35.3%	1.13	19.7%	45.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.288	0.327	32.9%	0.86	21.6%	40.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,300	Salary:			$5,500	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:			21 of 29	Salary Rank:			24 of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2017	18	5.44	6.70	15.6%	10.9%	43.0%	32.5%	24.1%	93.8	7.5%
	2018	23	4.31	4.97	18.5%	5.7%	41.9%	38.8%	18.2%	93.9	8.6%
	L14	2	2.94	5.79	27.9%	2.3%	33.3%	46.7%	20.0%	94.0	6.8%

Harvey has a lot of blue in his pitching table above, at least a lot more than usual. We’ve seen bad pitchers show up every now and then, but they have a problem sustaining any type of success. I’m not buying into the Harvey resurgence, as he has struggled at the major league level for years. In 23 starts this season, he has a 4.31 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19% and a hard contact rate of 39%. He should be avoided against the low-strikeout offense of the Pirates.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Harvey in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$7,600	Salary:			$8,500	Salary:		$16,300
	Salary Rank:			10 of 29	Salary Rank:			8 of 29	Salary Rank:		7 of 29
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%	92.1	8.4%
	2018	26	4.89	3.30	16.7%	8.2%	39.4%	30.9%	19.9%	90.4	7.5%
	L14	2	4.08	0.75	26.7%	11.1%	32.1%	53.6%	3.6%	90.2	10.8%

Williams isn’t a pitcher with flashy numbers, but he typically eats up innings and almost always ends up with positive fantasy production. To my surprise, he has scored at least 17 fantasy points (DK scoring) in seven of his last eight starts. He draws a mediocre matchup against the Reds, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .320 with a strikeout rate of 20% against right-handed pitching. Nobody is going to roster Williams, but he will pay off his salary if he scores 17+ fantasy points again.

Quick Breakdown: Williams is a decent SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds have a decent matchup on paper, but they have a lot working against them. We’ll start with the fact that they are underdogs on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Trevor Williams is far from an elite pitcher, but he has been solid in seven of his last eight starts. Meanwhile, the Reds’ offense has been struggling to score runs all season. Outside of a Joey Votto or a Eugenio Suarez one-off, I don’t have much interest in the Reds.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.249	0.073	18.1%	8.3%	23.0%	41.4%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
2	Jose Peraza	RIGHT	0.295	0.114	31.0%	5.5%	12.3%	35.4%	SS	$3,000	SS	$4,200	SS	$8,000
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.450	0.155	39.4%	19.3%	13.9%	33.8%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,000
4	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.338	0.177	38.9%	7.2%	18.6%	40.7%	2B	$3,700	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,400
5	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.372	0.239	46.8%	8.9%	23.2%	38.2%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,700	3B	$8,900
6	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.351	0.209	42.0%	9.4%	24.7%	52.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,400
7	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.330	0.126	33.3%	7.9%	21.3%	35.6%	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900	RF	$7,600
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.334	0.131	40.6%	10.4%	14.8%	40.5%	C	$2,900	C	$3,800	C	$7,600
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.165	0.000	15.4%	5.1%	28.2%	60.0%	P	$6,300	P	$5,500	P	$11,300
	Team Averages		0.320	0.136	33.9%	9.1%	20.0%	42.0%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

After a bunch of mediocre offenses, we finally arrive at my favorite stack for the early slate. I like the Pirates’ stack for a few reasons, but most importantly, they are cheap enough that you can pair them up with Max Scherzer, who I view as a must play. The Pirates aren’t playing in the best ballpark around, but they do draw one of the best matchups on the board. Matt Harvey is a low strikeout pitcher that has allowed a .365 xwOBA to lefties and a .328 xwOBA to righties this season. Corey Dickerson is my favorite value play early on, as he should be batting fifth and boasts a .354 xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.339	0.177	35.7%	4.8%	18.1%	48.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,100	CF	$9,800
2	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.336	0.181	30.7%	10.0%	13.2%	51.8%	OF	$3,100	2B/OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,200
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.369	0.265	36.0%	12.1%	21.9%	31.6%	OF	$3,700	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,700
4	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.378	0.194	35.0%	12.1%	21.6%	37.0%	C	$3,200	C	$3,900	C	$7,500
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.354	0.190	37.2%	3.7%	13.0%	35.6%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,700	LF	$7,200
6	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.348	0.127	30.8%	12.9%	16.2%	51.0%	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700	1B	$7,400
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.341	0.123	31.8%	7.3%	16.1%	45.1%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,500
8	Kevin Newman	RIGHT	0.171	0.000	0.0%	8.0%	36.0%	71.4%	2B	$2,000	2B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,300
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.167	0.000	4.4%	2.9%	29.4%	63.2%	P	$7,600	P	$8,500	P	$16,300
	Team Averages		0.311	0.140	26.8%	8.2%	20.6%	48.3%

Elite Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Corey Dickerson, Colin Moran

Secondary Plays – Starling Marte, Francisco Cervelli (DK), Josh Bell

Stackability – GREEN

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	HR/9	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Milwaukee
			Cole Hamels							Zach Davies
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-120							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.314	31.5%	0.35	21.6%	59.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.365	0.385	40.0%	0.52	16.7%	37.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.329	0.348	43.9%	1.55	23.7%	43.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.358	46.3%	2.10	16.0%	55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Cole Hamels
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$9,500	Salary:			$9,400	Salary:		$18,000
	Salary Rank:			4 of 29	Salary Rank:			5 of 29	Salary Rank:		5 of 29
	2017	24	4.90	4.20	17.1%	8.6%	47.5%	36.0%	13.7%	92.0	9.7%
	2018	26	3.95	3.70	23.4%	8.2%	46.1%	41.8%	17.4%	91.9	12.3%
	L14	2	3.50	0.64	27.3%	9.1%	50.0%	22.9%	25.7%	93.1	12.1%

Hamels has really pitched well since coming to Chicago. In fact, he looks like a completely different pitcher. In his last two starts, he has a 3.50 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27% and a ground ball rate of 50%. One of his toughest challenges to date will come today against the Brewers, whose projected lineup has an average xwOBA of .325 with a strikeout rate of only 17% against left-handed pitching. With an elevated price point and a negative ballpark shift, I will be looking elsewhere.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Hamels in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%	aFV	SwS%
Zach Davies
	FanDuel				DraftKings				FantasyDraft
	Salary:			$6,500	Salary:			$4,800	Salary:		$9,100
	Salary Rank:			19 of 29	Salary Rank:			28 of 29	Salary Rank:		25 of 29
	2017	33	4.72	3.90	15.2%	6.7%	50.2%	28.8%	19.9%	89.7	7.2%
	2018	8	4.85	5.23	16.3%	9.0%	47.8%	43.8%	11.0%	89.5	8.4%

Davies is not a pitcher that I target often in DFS. He doesn’t have the upside that we are typically looking for and he has to make half of his starts in the hitter-friendly Miller Park. In eight starts this season, he owns a 4.85 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 16%. He draws a difficult matchup against the Cubs, whose projected lineup has five batters with at least a .350 xwOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Davies in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Milwaukee and since they are playing on the road, they are guaranteed to see ninth-inning at-bats, which is always a small boost for a potential stack. They draw a favorable matchup against Zach Davies, who has allowed a .355+ xwOBA and a 40%+ hard contact rate to both left and right-handed hitters this season. Meanwhile, the Cubs have five hitters with at least a .350 xwOBA against righties — Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.389	0.181	27.8%	6.3%	8.4%	34.6%	2B	$3,900	1B/2B	$4,600	2B	$9,000
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.336	0.272	36.5%	3.4%	26.6%	46.3%	SS	$4,100	2B/SS	$5,700	2B	$10,200
3	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.404	0.224	35.7%	12.1%	9.9%	37.5%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,300	1B	$9,700
4	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.355	0.143	30.0%	11.0%	20.3%	39.0%	3B	$4,000	3B	$5,100	IF/OF	$9,900
5	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.376	0.269	42.3%	14.8%	25.3%	41.3%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,000
6	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.298	0.138	29.1%	7.9%	20.9%	53.2%	C	$3,000	C	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,300
7	Ian Happ	SWITCH	0.354	0.197	41.3%	16.8%	35.4%	37.7%	OF	$2,700	OF	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
8	Cole Hamels	LEFT	0.081	0.000	14.3%	0.0%	46.2%	60.0%	P	$9,500	P	$9,400	P	$18,000
9	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.285	0.085	30.4%	8.6%	22.9%	43.4%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,500	SS	$6,800
	Team Averages		0.320	0.168	31.9%	9.0%	24.0%	43.7%

Elite Plays – Daniel Murphy, Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber (Cash), Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Willson Contreras (DK)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Milwaukee

The Brewers have plenty of firepower in their lineup and are facing a pitcher that has allowed a .348 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. On paper, this looks like a good spot to load up on the righties, but Cole Hamels has been a different pitcher since joining the Cubs. I’m not overly excited to target the Brewers here, but Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, and Hernan Perez all bat from the right side and all boast a .355+ xwOBA against left-handed pitching this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Lorenzo Cain	RIGHT	0.394	0.200	45.5%	12.7%	8.7%	43.4%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,700	CF	$9,100
2	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.364	0.214	45.5%	5.9%	19.6%	56.4%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,300	CF	$9,700
3	Jesus Aguilar	RIGHT	0.375	0.270	40.8%	15.0%	20.8%	34.2%	1B	$3,900	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,400
4	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.468	0.262	50.6%	10.3%	12.8%	48.3%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,900	LF	$7,600
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.297	0.116	27.3%	6.8%	17.4%	46.9%	SS	$2,800	2B	$4,000	2B	$7,500
6	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.339	0.159	37.1%	3.7%	13.4%	44.6%	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,500
7	Hernan Perez	RIGHT	0.357	0.250	38.8%	4.0%	16.8%	36.7%	SS	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,600	2B	$7,400
8	Manny Pina	RIGHT	0.307	0.100	29.4%	8.8%	16.2%	38.0%	C	$2,500	C	$3,700	C	$7,400
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.025	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	P	$6,500	P	$4,800	P	$9,100
	Team Averages		0.325	0.175	35.0%	7.5%	16.7%	44.3%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Lorenzo Cain, Jesus Aguilar, Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 3rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Boston at Atlanta – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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