Sign In $

MLB Grind Down: Monday, September 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-09-06 02:34:33

Jump to Page 1 2 3

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – One of the top stacks of the day, viable in cash games and GPPs
YELLOW – A viable stack option in most formats, specifically GPPs
ORANGE – There are better stacks out there, but playable in large GPPs
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto NY Yankees
torontomlb R.A. Dickey nyyankeesmlb Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY -134 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.312 24 24.8% 13.9% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.283 22 33.5% 22.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.326 28 28.4% 16.8% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.275 20 31.3% 20.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

R.A. Dickey
r.a.-dickey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,300
FPPG: 25.2 FPPG: 11.6
Pitcher Rating: 39.8 Pitcher Rank: 27
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 4 93.3 5.47 4.09 16.0% 12.0% 10.5% 39.4% 38.0% 26.8%
2016 27 96.1 4.86 4.43 17.0% 8.9% 10.4% 43.6% 35.3% 30.6%
2015 33 98.9 4.76 3.91 14.3% 6.9% 9.1% 41.9% 37.2% 23.9%

Home:—ERA: 4.05 — K%: 16.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.307
Away:—ERA: 4.23 — K%: 14.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.334

Happy Labor Day everyone. Hopefully, everyone has the day off and can play some fantasy baseball with their free time.

Dickey will be on the mound for the Blue Jays, as they take on the Yankees in New York. While the Yankees haven’t been great against right-handed pitching this season, they do have the ninth highest team wOBA over the last month of play. Given the low strikeout rate and the inconsistency of Dickey, he is a risky fantasy option at this point in the season. As an underdog on the road, he can be faded in all league formats.

Masahiro Tanaka
masahiro-tanaka-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,200 Salary: $9,900
FPPG: 33.7 FPPG: 18.3
Pitcher Rating: 82.2 Pitcher Rank: 6
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 91.4 2.75 1.93 27.6% 0.8% 10.3% 47.7% 33.7% 28.4%
2016 27 93.9 3.70 3.12 21.0% 4.0% 10.8% 47.8% 30.6% 33.5%
2015 24 95.4 3.36 3.51 22.8% 4.4% 11.4% 47.0% 33.8% 31.1%

Home:—ERA: 3.93 — K%: 22.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.294
Away:—ERA: 2.63 — K%: 21.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.262

Tanaka hasn’t been great at home over the last two seasons, but that’s a statistic that seems more like noise than anything else. While he comes into the game in good form, it’s hard to justify the play against the Blue Jays. On the season, Toronto is ranked eighth in team wOBA and third in team ISO against right-handed pitching. The good news is that Tanaka will face a right-handed heavy lineup, the bad news is that it is a talented one. Tanaka is a deep GPP flier in this one.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays may be one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching, but that doesn’t mean that we should be heavily targeting them in a difficult matchup against Masahiro Tanaka. In the last two seasons, Tanaka has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .285 wOBA.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.378 0.272 37.0% 0.346 OF $3,500 OF $4,100
2 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.399 0.268 37.9% 0.527 3B $3,900 3B $5,200
3 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.389 0.286 36.2% 0.354 1B $3,900 1B $4,100
4 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.341 0.206 37.7% 0.480 OF $3,300 OF $4,000
5 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.321 0.178 34.4% 0.262 SS $3,100 SS $3,900
6 Melvin Upton RIGHT 0.288 0.149 32.3% 0.251 OF $3,000 OF $3,200
7 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.301 0.125 25.6% 0.311 OF $2,700 OF $2,900
8 Devon Travis RIGHT 0.356 0.185 27.7% 0.256 2B $3,300 2B $3,300
9 Josh Thole LEFT 0.201 0.025 25.3% 0.176 C $2,000 C $2,400
Team Averages — 0.330 0.188 32.7% 0.329 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Michael Saunders

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees may not hit right-handed pitching that well, but they come into the game in good form offensively. They have the ninth highest run projection in the slate, as they take on R.A. Dickey and the Blue Jays at home. In the last two seasons, Dickey has allowed 52 home runs – 24 to left-handed hitters and 28 to right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.323 0.134 27.7% 0.293 OF $3,000 OF $4,100
2 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.308 0.105 24.6% 0.304 OF $3,100 OF $4,400
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.545 0.448 44.9% 0.482 C $3,900 C $4,600
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.312 0.148 24.2% 0.273 SS $2,900 SS $3,900
5 Mark Teixeira SWITCH 0.338 0.252 35.6% 0.280 1B $2,600 1B $3,100
6 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.299 0.140 26.6% 0.388 2B $2,800 2B $3,900
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.325 0.190 33.4% 0.262 C $2,900 C $3,400
8 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.308 0.124 30.1% 0.285 3B $2,900 3B $3,900
9 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.301 0.229 48.0% 0.163 OF $2,600 OF $3,800
Team Averages — 0.340 0.197 32.8% 0.303 — — — —

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury, Didi Gregorius, Mark Teixeira

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
baltimoremlb Ubaldo Jimenez tampabaymlb Matt Andriese
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -120 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.347 22 31.0% 21.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.308 10 31.1% 18.8%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.331 11 26.9% 19.4% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.306 11 35.1% 19.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Ubaldo Jimenez
ubaldo-jimenez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,900 Salary: $6,200
FPPG: 17.3 FPPG: 7.1
Pitcher Rating: 45.5 Pitcher Rank: 22
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 2 152.0 5.00 3.92 16.9% 9.6% 6.6% 36.1% 45.9% 23.0%
2016 20 98.0 5.00 6.46 18.6% 12.1% 7.9% 46.4% 32.8% 31.6%
2015 32 95.6 3.93 4.11 21.2% 8.6% 8.0% 49.1% 28.8% 27.0%

Home:—ERA: 4.88 — K%: 20.3% — wOBA Allowed: 0.327
Away:—ERA: 5.07 — K%: 20.2% — wOBA Allowed: 0.350

Jimenez has not pitched well this season, posting a 6.46 ERA with a strikeout rate of 18.6% and a walk rate of 12.1%. He may not give up a ton of hard contact, but the low k-rate and the high walk rate leads to a lot of earned runs. He draws a decent strikeout matchup against the Rays, but they quietly have the third highest team ISO against right-handed pitching this season. There is more risk than potential reward here.

Matt Andriese
matthew-andriese-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $5,700 Salary: $5,700
FPPG: 20.5 FPPG: 10.9
Pitcher Rating: 65.5 Pitcher Rank: 11
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 87.0 3.51 8.64 24.8% 4.3% 10.1% 39.8% 42.2% 27.7%
2016 14 112.6 3.90 4.19 20.8% 5.3% 10.2% 45.0% 36.8% 33.6%
2015 8 136.0 4.02 4.11 17.4% 6.4% 8.6% 48.1% 34.8% 32.9%

Home:—ERA: 3.59 — K%: 19.7% — wOBA Allowed: 0.289
Away:—ERA: 4.96 — K%: 19.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.330

Andriese is having a mediocre season overall, posting a 3.90 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.8%. He draws a boom or bust matchup against the Orioles, who are ranked third in team wOBA, but 21st in team K% against right-handed pitching this season. Andriese could be worth a look in tournaments against the strikeout-prone Orioles, but he is an easy fade in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have a mediocre run projection today, as they square off against Matt Andriese. Even though the ballpark isn’t ideal, Andriese gives up a lot of fly balls and a fair amount of hard contact. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .305+ wOBA to both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.346 0.207 31.8% 0.360 OF $3,600 OF $4,300
2 Pedro Alvarez LEFT 0.345 0.252 38.9% 0.331 3B $3,200 1B $3,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.384 0.252 35.1% 0.413 3B $4,100 3B/SS $5,100
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.384 0.315 43.6% 0.333 1B $3,400 1B $3,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.352 0.233 34.8% 0.435 OF $3,500 OF $4,300
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.354 0.221 33.1% 0.300 2B $3,000 2B $3,500
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.318 0.166 31.3% 0.343 C $2,500 C $3,600
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.281 0.127 28.7% 0.222 SS $2,600 SS $2,600
9 Hyun-Soo Kim LEFT 0.372 0.117 31.3% 0.265 OF $2,900 OF $3,000
Team Averages — 0.348 0.210 34.3% 0.334 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays are a sneaky offense to target today, because well, no one likes to target the Rays. They have quietly had a lot of power against right-handed pitching, ranking third in team ISO on the season. They draw an excellent Ubaldo Jimenez, who has allowed a .347 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .331 wOBA to right-handed hitters in the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.337 0.137 31.0% 0.387 2B $3,600 2B $4,000
2 Kevin Kiermaier LEFT 0.318 0.174 28.2% 0.305 OF $3,300 OF $3,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.335 0.204 34.0% 0.266 3B $3,600 3B $3,800
4 Brad Miller LEFT 0.353 0.233 35.1% 0.283 SS $3,600 1B/SS $4,200
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.325 0.130 27.6% 0.259 SS $3,000 3B/SS $3,100
6 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.319 0.188 35.1% 0.458 1B $2,800 1B $3,400
7 Nick Franklin SWITCH 0.317 0.207 35.0% 0.384 2B $2,900 2B/OF $3,800
8 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.345 0.263 34.2% 0.291 OF $2,800 OF $3,500
9 Luke Maile RIGHT 0.264 0.122 32.8% 0.507 C $2,900 C $2,700
Team Averages — 0.324 0.184 32.6% 0.349 — — — —

Elite Plays – Brad Miller

Secondary Plays – Logan Forsythe, Kevin Kiermaier, Evan Longoria

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago Cubs Milwaukee
cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks milwaukeemlb Zach Davies
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC -200 8.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.311 18 26.2% 21.3% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.312 10 32.8% 19.7%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.249 12 24.4% 23.3% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.302 10 33.2% 19.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $11,400
FPPG: 34.9 FPPG: 19.4
Pitcher Rating: 87.9 Pitcher Rank: 4
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 98.6 3.33 1.62 25.6% 3.3% 11.6% 34.1% 37.6% 24.7%
2016 25 96.7 3.80 2.09 22.2% 6.2% 9.9% 48.7% 31.1% 24.6%
2015 32 87.3 3.37 3.95 22.6% 5.8% 8.1% 51.3% 26.9% 25.8%

Home:—ERA: 2.27 — K%: 24.4% — wOBA Allowed: 0.251
Away:—ERA: 3.94 — K%: 20.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302

Hendricks has been terrific in his last five starts, posting a 1.62 ERA (3.33 SIERA) with a strikeout rate of 25.6%. He has been able to pitch a bit deeper into games during that stretch, averaging just under 100 pitches per start. He draws a favorable matchup against the Brewers, who have the highest strikeout rate (25.7%) of any team against right-handed pitching this season. The only knock on Hendricks is his price on DraftKings.

Zach Davies
zach-davies-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,200
FPPG: 29.2 FPPG: 14.8
Pitcher Rating: 61.9 Pitcher Rank: 13
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 94.2 3.77 6.04 21.9% 3.9% 10.2% 37.9% 35.8% 34.7%
2016 24 92.9 4.09 4.07 20.1% 5.8% 8.3% 44.8% 33.8% 33.3%

Home:—ERA: 3.97 — K%: 21.8% — wOBA Allowed: 0.308
Away:—ERA: 4.05 — K%: 16.1% — wOBA Allowed: 0.305

Davies has been an easy fade recently, posting a 6.04 ERA in his last five starts. He is a better pitcher than his recent form would suggest, but he plays for a bad team and he faces one of the best offenses in baseball. On the season, the Cubs are ranked seventh in team wOBA against right-handed pitching. Given his matchup and the hitter-friendly nature of the ballpark, Davies can be avoided in all league formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the seventh highest run projection in the slate today. They see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Miller Park and they draw a decent matchup against Zach Davies. Even though his splits don’t stand out, Davies has allowed a hard hit contact rate of at least 32% to both left and right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dexter Fowler SWITCH 0.334 0.165 27.6% 0.285 OF $3,900 OF $4,800
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.390 0.237 39.8% 0.497 3B $4,200 3B/OF $5,300
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.393 0.261 36.3% 0.314 1B $4,000 1B $5,100
4 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.339 0.166 31.1% 0.291 2B $3,200 2B $4,300
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.320 0.154 29.3% 0.306 SS $2,400 SS $4,000
6 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.325 0.136 29.4% 0.305 OF $3,000 OF $3,400
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.291 0.144 26.9% 0.233 SS $2,800 2B/3B $3,500
8 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.343 0.191 31.7% 0.385 C $3,100 C/OF $4,100
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.072 0.000 3.9% 0.000 P $9,800 P $11,400
Team Averages — 0.312 0.162 28.4% 0.291 — — — —

Elite Plays – Dexter Fowler

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell

Stackability – YELLOW

Milwaukee

The Brewers come into the game with one of the lowest run projections in the entire slate. Their offense has struggled all season and that’s not going to change in the last month of the season. The only positive with this offense is that they like to steal bases. If Miguel Montero happens to be behind the plate, you could target a speedy Brewers’ hitter in tournaments. If not, they can be avoided completely.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.336 0.120 32.1% 0.304 3B $3,500 3B/SS $3,900
2 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.305 0.129 25.9% 0.259 2B $2,800 2B $2,800
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.357 0.212 33.6% 0.283 OF $3,900 OF $4,100
4 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.279 0.104 28.0% 0.308 OF $2,900 3B/OF $4,200
5 Chris Carter RIGHT 0.323 0.239 37.8% 0.400 1B $3,500 1B $3,300
6 Kirk Nieuwenhuis LEFT 0.320 0.194 39.3% 0.359 OF $2,400 OF $3,100
7 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.233 0.138 23.7% 0.375 SS $2,600 SS $2,900
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.263 0.099 29.0% 0.260 C $2,500 C $2,300
9 Zach Davies RIGHT 0.095 0.000 8.7% 0.000 P $7,800 P $7,200
Team Averages — 0.279 0.137 28.7% 0.283 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar

Stackability – RED

NY Mets at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

NY Mets Cincinnati
nymetsmlb Bartolo Colon cincinnatimlb Robert Stephenson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYM -122 9.0
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.321 26 33.2% 16.1% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.321 2 28.0% 6.9%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.307 18 30.4% 16.7% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.259 0 43.8% 9.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Bartolo Colon
bartolo-colon-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $6,900
FPPG: 27.2 FPPG: 13.6
Pitcher Rating: 55.7 Pitcher Rank: 15
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 99.2 4.32 2.87 17.0% 4.4% 7.1% 40.6% 31.7% 30.2%
2016 27 88.1 4.38 3.35 16.1% 4.2% 5.5% 43.8% 32.7% 35.3%
2015 31 87.3 4.02 4.16 16.7% 2.9% 6.4% 42.3% 36.9% 29.0%

Home:—ERA: 3.62 — K%: 19.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.302
Away:—ERA: 3.97 — K%: 13.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.326

Colon has been better at home than he has been on the road in the last two seasons, especially in the strikeout department. He comes into tonight’s game as a small favorite against the Reds, but the over/under is set at 9.0 runs. Colon may not give up a lot of runs, but he does allow a hard contact rate of 35.3%, which could be troublesome in a home run-friendly ballpark such as the Great American Ballpark.

Robert Stephenson
robert-stephenson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,400
FPPG: 30.0 FPPG: 13.3
Pitcher Rating: 25.8 Pitcher Rank: 30
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
2016 2 96.0 6.16 3.00 8.0% 8.0% 7.8% 34.1% 41.5% 34.2%

Home:—ERA: 3.00 — K%: 8.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.295

Stephenson is making his third career major league start, the first of which will be on the road. In 24 minor league starts this season, he posted a 4.41 ERA with a strikeout rate of 20.3%. As an underdog at home in a game that is expected to be high scoring, Stephenson is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

The Mets typically aren’t an offense that we like to stack in DFS, but they have the fifth highest run projection in the slate today. They draw an excellent matchup against the rookie, Robert Stephenson, and they get to face him in the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark. I’m a little hesitant to say this, but a Mets’ stack appears to be in order in all league formats.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Jose Reyes SWITCH 0.295 0.103 20.9% 0.322 3B $2,900 3B/SS $4,200
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.326 0.189 31.7% 0.591 SS $3,100 SS $4,600
3 Yoenis Cespedes RIGHT 0.377 0.260 36.4% 0.382 OF $3,900 OF $4,500
4 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.360 0.224 37.1% 0.303 OF $3,200 OF $4,100
5 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.276 0.111 26.6% 0.371 2B $2,900 1B/3B $4,000
6 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.335 0.252 38.6% 0.282 OF $3,600 OF $4,400
7 Travis D’Arnaud RIGHT 0.318 0.151 28.9% 0.291 C $2,300 C $3,100
8 James Loney LEFT 0.310 0.097 24.0% 0.186 1B $2,300 1B $2,900
9 Bartolo Colon RIGHT 0.138 0.068 11.1% 0.424 P $7,600 P $6,900
Team Averages — 0.304 0.162 28.4% 0.350 — — — —

Elite Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Yoenis Cespedes, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce (REVENGE)

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati

The Reds may be underdogs today, but they still have a slightly above-average run projection. Even though Bartolo Colon splits don’t stand out, he has allowed a lot of hard contact, especially to left-handed hitters. In the last two seasons, he has allowed a .321 wOBA and 26 home runs to hitters from the left side of the plate.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.318 0.172 29.1% 0.353 SS $3,500 SS $3,700
2 Tyler Holt RIGHT 0.222 0.038 22.5% 0.375 OF $2,200 OF $2,900
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.423 0.241 42.6% 0.417 1B $4,000 1B $5,400
4 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.316 0.115 26.5% 0.284 2B $2,900 2B $3,300
5 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.346 0.285 37.0% 0.311 OF $3,100 OF $4,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.324 0.205 37.3% 0.471 OF $3,200 OF $3,900
7 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.309 0.157 32.6% 0.325 3B $2,700 3B $3,300
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.317 0.122 27.5% 0.267 C $2,500 C $3,400
9 Robert Stephenson RIGHT P $6,200 P $6,400
Team Averages — 0.322 0.167 31.9% 0.350 — — — —

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Scott Schebler

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Philadelphia at Miami – 1:10 PM ET

Philadelphia Miami
philadelphiamlb Jerad Eickhoff miamimlb Jake Esch
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIA -120 8.5
Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K% Stats wOBA HR All. HC% K%
SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.348 18 32.3% 16.4% SP vs. Left (2015-16) 0.334 0 22.2% 8.3%
SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.263 9 32.1% 25.6% SP vs. Right (2015-16) 0.593 1 42.9% 11.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jerad Eickhoff
jerad-eickhoff-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,600
FPPG: 29.1 FPPG: 15.0
Pitcher Rating: 51.2 Pitcher Rank: 18
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 5 91.8 4.78 4.85 17.7% 5.7% 8.3% 28.3% 50.0% 26.3%
2016 27 93.6 4.19 3.90 19.9% 5.6% 9.3% 40.5% 38.6% 31.1%
2015 8 92.4 3.56 2.65 24.1% 6.4% 10.4% 37.9% 40.0% 36.2%

Home:—ERA: 3.06 — K%: 23.0% — wOBA Allowed: 0.300
Away:—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 18.6% — wOBA Allowed: 0.315

Eickhoff has struggled in his last five starts, posting a 4.78 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 17.7%. He has much better numbers at home than he does on the road, which is cause for concern today against the Marlins. He comes into the game as an underdog against Jake Esch, which is more than enough reason to fade him. The Marlins may not be much offensively, but they are one of the toughest teams to strikeout.

Jake Esch
jake-esch-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,600
FPPG: 13.0 FPPG: 3.8
Pitcher Rating: 40.5 Pitcher Rank: 26
Statistics Starts PitchPS SIERA ERA K% BB% SS% GB% FB% HC%
L30 Days 1 71.0 5.77 4.15 9.5% 14.3% 7.0% 62.5% 18.8% 31.3%
2016 1 71.0 5.75 4.15 9.5% 14.3% 7.0% 62.5% 18.8% 31.3%

Away:—ERA: 4.15 — K%: 9.5% — wOBA Allowed: 0.445

Esch is making his second career major league start. His first big league appearance didn’t go exactly as planned, as he couldn’t quite make it out of the fifth inning. He didn’t show a ton of upside in the minors, especially in the strikeout department. Even though he draws a juicy matchup against the Phillies, I will take a wait and see approach on Esch.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies may be ranked 29th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching, but they are facing a rookie pitcher that is only making his second career major league start. It’s always tough trying to predict this situations, but Jake Esch didn’t have the best numbers in the minors. You can look at a couple of the Phillies’ hitters as one-off targets.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.309 0.108 26.6% 0.278 2B $3,400 2B $4,200
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.329 0.197 32.5% 0.206 OF $2,600 OF $4,000
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.321 0.183 28.6% 0.249 3B $2,700 3B $3,500
4 Ryan Howard LEFT 0.326 0.250 42.8% 0.269 1B $2,500 1B $3,600
5 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.293 0.148 30.2% 0.154 C $2,800 C $3,400
6 Darin Ruf RIGHT 0.203 0.098 27.3% 0.125 1B $2,000 1B/OF $3,700
7 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.343 0.144 29.7% 0.228 OF $2,300 OF $3,900
8 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.292 0.136 28.1% 0.359 SS $2,400 SS $4,100
9 Jerad Eickhoff RIGHT 0.198 0.063 10.3% 0.000 P $7,900 P $7,600
Team Averages — 0.290 0.147 28.5% 0.208 — — — —

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco, Ryan Howard

Stackability – ORANGE

Miami

The Marlins are small favorites today against the Phillies in a game that features a sneaky-high run projection. They draw an exploitable matchup against the struggling Jerad Eickhoff, who has not pitched well on the road in his career. In the last two seasons, Eickhoff has allowed a .348 wOBA and 18 home runs to left-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup

# Player Bats wOBA vs. RHP ISO vs. RHP HC% vs. RHP wOBA L14 FD Position FD Salary DK Position DK Salary
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.311 0.072 18.4% 0.169 2B $2,500 2B $4,100
2 Ichiro Suzuki LEFT 0.264 0.045 17.5% 0.211 OF $2,600 OF $3,200
3 Martin Prado RIGHT 0.306 0.099 25.7% 0.298 3B $3,000 3B $3,300
4 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.378 0.180 38.7% 0.395 OF $3,600 OF $5,000
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.325 0.130 30.1% 0.379 C $2,900 C $4,200
6 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.360 0.176 32.9% 0.000 1B $2,500 2B $3,300
7 Destin Hood RIGHT 0.303 0.143 25.0% 0.303 OF $2,200 OF $2,400
8 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.269 0.076 27.2% 0.193 SS $2,000 SS $2,200
9 Jake Esch RIGHT 0.000 P $6,000 P $4,600
Team Averages — 0.315 0.115 26.9% 0.216 — — — —

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Dee Gordon

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Want to discuss strategy for today’s games? Head over to the RotoGrinders Forums

Jump to Page 1 2 3

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious