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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, July 8th

by Seth Yates (sethayates) Last Updated 2017-07-09 02:37:41

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Milwaukee at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Milwaukee NY Yankees
milwaukeemlb Brent Suter nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-210 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.363 0.304 41.3% 5.1% 13.6% 43.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.330 28.8% 7.4% 22.3% 49.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.288 23.9% 8.2% 19.4% 45.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.287 28.9% 6.8% 27.2% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Brent Suter
brent-suter-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $9,900
Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29 Salary Rank: 28 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 2 4.33 3.32 16.5% 5.5% 43.3% 34.3% 22.9%
2017 1 4.55 4.20 18.2% 9.1% 46.8% 25.5% 19.2%

Welcome to the Saturday MLB Grind Down. We have 15 games on the schedule today. If you are playing on FanDuel, the first three games are part of a very early only slate with another slate kicking off at 4:05 then the main slate at 7:15. If you are on DraftKings and most everywhere else, you have a seven game early slate starting at 1:05 and then an eight game main slate at 7:15. We’ll go ahead and dive right it as we have plenty to get to.

Brent Suter has just three starts over the past seasons. He’s allowing a .363 wOBA to LH and .315 wOBA to RH hitters. He generates a decent amount of ground balls at around 46% but has a strikeout rate under 18%. He’ll take on a Yankees offense that owns a 23.3% K rate, .311 wOBA and 91 wrC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Suter is an easy avoid today against a high-powered Yankees offense.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $11,500 Salary: $22,400
Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 15 3.20 3.15 28.2% 6.3% 56.0% 28.5% 19.9%

Luis Severino has been pitching at an elite level through 15 starts this season. He owns a 3.15 ERA, 28.2% K rate and 56% ground ball rate. He’s allowing a .299 wOBA to LH and .269 to RH hitters this season. He’ll take on a Brewers offense that owns a 24.6% K rate, .331 wOBA and 99 wRC+. While the Brewers K rate has dropped a bit, they are still attack you can attack with a high-strikeout pitcher. That comers with the obvious disclaimer that this team does have some power.

Quick Breakdown: If you are playing the very early slate, Luis Severino is your top option but if you have your choice of all the afternoon pitchers, Severino ranks slightly behind Strasburg for cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

If you insist on attacking Severino, you want to do it with LH hitting. He owns a 23.9% K rate vs. LH compared to 31.6% vs. RH hitters. In tournaments, you can take a look at Eric Thames, who owns a .387 wOBA or Travis Shaw, who owns a .352 wOBA vs. RH pitching. I wouldn’t have much exposure to the Brewers outside of those two though.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jonathan Villar SWITCH 0.326 0.300 0.149 35.4% 10.6% 26.1% 60.9% 2B $3,100 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
2 Eric Thames LEFT 0.387 0.351 0.289 42.4% 17.5% 24.8% 38.9% 1B $3,600 1B/OF $3,900 1B $7,600
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.364 0.339 0.241 34.7% 7.6% 19.8% 55.7% OF $4,200 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.352 0.341 0.213 36.6% 9.4% 22.5% 39.1% 3B $3,900 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
5 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.342 0.333 0.183 35.5% 11.4% 31.8% 47.4% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 RF $8,000
6 Hernan Perez RIGHT 0.312 0.294 0.163 30.7% 4.6% 18.0% 48.1% OF $2,900 3B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
7 Stephen Vogt LEFT 0.317 0.323 0.171 28.5% 7.8% 15.3% 30.5% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.322 0.297 0.206 37.0% 9.8% 37.5% 42.5% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.291 0.258 0.139 26.8% 4.7% 20.7% 53.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,500 SS $6,900

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Eric Thames and Travis Shaw

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

NY Yankees

The Yankees expected lineup doesn’t hit LH pitching all that well but they are decent options against Brent Suter. He owns a .363 wOBA vs. LH and .315 wOBA vs. RH hitting. We only have a small MLB sample to work with but he’s also allowing 41.3% hard contact to LH hitters. Brett Gardner is your top option here based on how well he’s hitting the ball this season. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are of course in play as well , especially Judge, who owns a .423 wOBA vs. LH. If filling out a Yankees stack, the weaker-hitting Didi Gregorius and Chase Headley make sense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.276 0.273 0.101 24.4% 7.8% 19.0% 51.1% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.423 0.429 0.284 45.0% 23.6% 30.3% 35.0% OF $5,000 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.329 0.420 0.292 43.3% 15.1% 28.3% 40.0% C $3,500 C $5,000 C $9,600
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.355 0.294 0.130 21.7% 3.2% 9.2% 40.2% SS $3,100 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
5 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.273 0.293 0.081 27.7% 7.0% 18.8% 45.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.272 0.260 0.080 24.6% 6.0% 17.6% 45.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
7 Ji-Man Choi LEFT 0.173 0.288 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% 100.0% 1B $2,200 1B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
8 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.290 0.281 0.030 25.9% 10.5% 13.2% 56.9% 2B $2,500 3B/SS $3,500 SS $6,900
9 Clint Frazier RIGHT 1.980 0.283 3.000 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius and Chase Headley

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Houston at Toronto – 1:07 PM ET

Houston Toronto
houstonmlb Mike Fiers torontomlb Marcus Stroman
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TOR-105 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.313 32.6% 6.7% 18.9% 45.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.307 33.1% 7.0% 19.6% 61.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.347 34.5% 6.5% 19.6% 43.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.309 29.5% 5.4% 20.0% 59.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Fiers
michael-fiers-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $15,000
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.26 4.48 18.5% 5.8% 42.2% 35.3% 17.2%
2017 15 4.36 3.98 20.7% 8.1% 49.2% 30.0% 18.6%

Through 15 starts this season, Mike Fiers owns a 3.98 ERA, 20.7% K rate and 8.1% BB rate. While those numbers don’t stand out, he is generating ground balls at 46.2%. Over the past two seasons, he’s allowing a .316 wOBA vs. LH and .360 vs. RH hitting. He tends to have a home run problem against RH hitters as 12 of his 18 home runs this season have been RH hitters. He’ll take on a Blue Jays offense that owns a 20.7% K rate, .313 wOBA and 91 wRC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Fiers cans safely be avoided in this matchup in every format except the largest of tournaments. There are plenty of Blue Jays RH hitters with the power to make him pay

Marcus Stroman
marcus-stroman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $8,200 Salary: $15,900
Salary Rank: 14 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29 Salary Rank: 7 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.62 4.37 19.4% 6.3% 60.1% 31.8% 18.3%
2017 16 3.63 3.41 20.5% 5.9% 60.8% 30.2% 21.8%

Through 16 starts this season, Marcuus Stroman owns a 3.41 ERA, 20.5% K rate and 5.9% BB rate. More importantly, he owns a 60.8% ground ball rate. Stroman is elite at generating ground balls and always has been. The main problem here is that he’ll take on an Astros offense that owns a 17.4% K rate, .363 wOBA and 129 wRC+ against RH pitching. Stroman will need all the ground balls he can get as the Astros 17.4% K rate isn’t going to make things easy.

Quick Breakdown: Even though Stroman has a reasonable price, there are better matchups in this range if looking for an SP2. He can be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Stroman is allowing a .307 wOBA vs. LH .316 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. Those numbers don’t scream stack against me when you realize Stroman is a 60% ground ball pitcher. Ideally, we want hitters with good power against RH pitching and who avoid ground balls. Josh Reddick stands out at the top of that list with a .370 wOBA and 11.4% ground ball rate. George Springer also makes some sense. Springer hit two home runs last night as the Astros scored 12 runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.347 0.343 0.197 33.3% 10.4% 24.2% 49.6% OF $4,500 OF $5,400 RF $10,500
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.370 0.355 0.187 33.3% 9.0% 11.4% 36.7% OF $3,400 OF $4,400 RF $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.395 0.370 0.196 30.7% 8.1% 9.9% 44.0% 2B $4,300 2B $5,100 2B $10,000
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.369 0.371 0.205 37.2% 10.7% 21.0% 49.7% SS $4,200 SS $4,900 SS $9,600
5 Brian McCann LEFT 0.328 0.343 0.171 37.0% 10.2% 18.4% 36.0% C $2,800 C $3,300 C $6,600
6 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.328 0.307 0.205 33.0% 6.3% 17.8% 46.2% OF $3,100 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
7 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.335 0.305 0.172 33.7% 6.5% 20.2% 46.0% OF $3,600 3B/OF $4,400 1B $8,400
8 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.344 0.316 0.178 32.4% 2.7% 11.4% 43.0% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
9 Norichika Aoki LEFT 0.332 0.284 0.116 20.3% 6.6% 9.6% 57.0% OF $2,100 OF $2,400 LF $4,800

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick

Secondary Plays – George Springer

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Toronto

As mentioned above, Mike Fiers owns a .316 wOBA vs. LH and .360 vs. RH hitting. Against RH hitters his HR/9 works out to 2.68. We can fire up Blue Jays RH power hitters here with confidence. The two names that top that list are Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson. Bautista owns a .358 wOBA vs. RH while Donaldson checks in at .394. If you’re playing the smaller early slate, you’ll want a couple more Blue Jays such as Russell Martin and Justin Smoak but they are secondary options on the full afternoon slate, though a Jays stack is in play in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.358 0.362 0.214 38.0% 15.8% 21.6% 36.1% OF $3,900 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Russell Martin RIGHT 0.331 0.327 0.167 30.4% 12.8% 25.9% 49.0% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,200
3 Josh Donaldson RIGHT 0.394 0.394 0.265 40.2% 14.3% 19.2% 39.9% 3B $3,500 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
4 Justin Smoak SWITCH 0.348 0.370 0.244 40.4% 11.3% 29.7% 30.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,700 1B $9,300
5 Kendrys Morales SWITCH 0.313 0.385 0.194 40.7% 8.1% 20.4% 48.9% 1B $3,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
6 Troy Tulowitzki RIGHT 0.322 0.344 0.184 33.3% 7.4% 17.2% 41.3% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
7 Steve Pearce RIGHT 0.340 0.342 0.160 30.9% 8.7% 17.8% 45.9% OF $2,700 OF $2,800 1B $5,400
8 Kevin Pillar RIGHT 0.283 0.294 0.111 26.7% 5.1% 15.7% 47.4% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
9 Ryan Goins LEFT 0.265 0.272 0.146 30.3% 7.1% 21.4% 47.3% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,300 2B $4,500

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin and Justin Smoak

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

Baltimore at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Baltimore Minnesota
baltimoremlb Wade Miley minnesotamlb Adalberto Mejia
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TBD
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.284 0.316 35.6% 9.8% 20.7% 55.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.399 0.329 22.6% 7.1% 19.1% 48.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.360 0.349 32.8% 8.6% 19.2% 47.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.354 34.8% 12.9% 17.3% 42.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Wade Miley
wade-miley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $5,700 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 23 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29 Salary Rank: 26 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.21 5.37 19.3% 6.9% 47.3% 33.3% 17.3%
2017 16 4.87 4.54 20.0% 12.4% 53.0% 33.2% 19.6%

The final game of the three game very early slate is the Orioles at Twins. Miley owns a 4.54 ERA, 20.4% K rate and 12.4% BB rate. He’s been generating an elite amount of ground balls at 53% but that’s really all he does well. Over the past two seasons, he owns a .284 wOBA vs. LH and .360 wOBA vs. RH hitters. He’ll take on a Twins offense that owns a 20.4% K rate, .304 wOBA and 86 wRC+ against LH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Given that the Twins are a slightly below average offense against LH pitching (86 wRC+), Miley makes sense as an SP2 on DK. You could also make the case for him in tournaments on FD if you are trying to load up on Yankees and Blue Jays.

Adalberto Mejia
adalberto-mejia-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,100 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 0 7.02 7.71 0.0% 7.7% 33.3% 41.7% 8.3%
2017 11 5.26 4.38 18.6% 12.1% 43.9% 31.9% 22.3%

Through 11 starts this season, Adalberto Mejia owns a 4.38 ERA, 18.6% K rate and 12.1% BB rate. Looking at Mejia’s splits, he owns a .399 wOBA vs. RH and .338 wOBA vs. LH hitters. The somewhat good news for Mejia is that this Orioles offense isn’t great against LH pitching. They own a 25.3% K rate, .307 wOBA and 87 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: Mejia gets the same recommendation as Miley. He’s a viable SP2 (though there are better options) and in play in tournaments on FD.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Even though Mejia owns a .399 wOBA vs. LH and .338 wOBA vs. RH hitting, I don’t think he’s likely to remain a reverse splits pitcher. This is likely just noise in a small sample. He’s allowing 34.7% hard contact to RH compared to just 22.6% to LH hitters. There are a couple of usable Orioles here. Manny Machado smashes LH pitching with a .370 wOBA and even that number says he’s been unlucky with a .393 xwOBA. He hit two home runs last night and things appear to be turning around. Outside of Machado, it’s hard to get over excited about these Orioles bats. Joey Rickard owns a .339 wOBA vs. LH pitching. He’s a secondary option as is Trey Mancini.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.339 0.305 0.151 31.5% 6.7% 18.2% 37.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.370 0.393 0.214 41.8% 9.2% 15.8% 41.8% 3B $3,000 3B $3,900 3B $7,600
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.325 0.296 0.204 26.6% 5.8% 23.9% 47.9% 2B $3,300 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.260 0.274 0.096 29.6% 6.1% 21.5% 38.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.271 0.286 0.176 35.2% 6.1% 25.3% 43.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,200 IF/OF $8,000
6 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.363 0.396 0.280 42.4% 4.1% 27.8% 47.0% 1B $2,900 1B/OF $3,800 1B $7,500
7 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.357 0.370 0.204 52.1% 8.0% 24.4% 39.5% C $2,400 C $2,900 C $5,600
8 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.239 0.239 0.089 11.9% 10.6% 24.2% 64.1% OF $2,000 OF $3,100 LF $6,000
9 Ruben Tejada RIGHT 0.304 0.286 0.114 31.7% 9.6% 11.5% 41.5% SS $2,300 3B/SS $2,400 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Joey Rickard and Trey Mancini

Stackability – ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.

Minnesota

As mentioned above, Wade Miley is excellent against LH hitting with a .284 wOBA while allowing a .360 wOBA to RH hitting. That leave us targeting Twins RH hitters in this spot. Brian Dozier is elite with a .401 wOBA and .290 ISO vs. LH pitching. Robbie Grossman also smashes LH pitching with a .402 wOBA. Beyond that, you can take a shot at Miguel Sano as a one-of play or as part of a Twins stack in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.401 0.344 0.290 39.1% 9.8% 20.1% 35.0% 2B $3,200 2B $3,900 2B $7,800
2 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.402 0.383 0.177 34.5% 15.7% 17.0% 42.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.358 0.341 0.268 42.7% 13.8% 33.7% 35.0% 3B $3,600 3B $4,600 IF/OF $9,000
4 Max Kepler LEFT 0.238 0.240 0.091 28.7% 7.7% 25.5% 49.3% OF $2,800 OF $4,600 RF $8,800
5 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.295 0.318 0.155 31.5% 6.2% 20.0% 36.4% SS $3,000 3B/SS $4,200 SS $8,000
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.299 0.272 0.152 27.7% 3.8% 19.1% 35.9% SS $2,800 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
7 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.280 0.224 0.062 17.7% 3.2% 23.1% 56.4% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 LF $7,200
8 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.294 0.279 0.154 30.1% 11.1% 31.7% 30.5% OF $2,800 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
9 Jason Castro LEFT 0.243 0.296 0.099 32.3% 9.6% 28.7% 49.0% C $2,600 C $3,400 C $6,800

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier and Robbie Grossman

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano

Stackability – YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.

Atlanta at Washington – 4:05 PM ET

Atlanta Washington
atlantamlb Julio Teheran washingtonmlb Stephen Strasburg
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-210 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.343 0.344 34.6% 10.1% 14.5% 36.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.269 0.264 24.8% 8.1% 30.9% 45.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.267 0.276 29.3% 3.1% 25.1% 41.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.285 0.296 29.6% 6.0% 28.9% 38.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

Julio Teheran
julio-teheran-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $13,200
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 20 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.93 3.21 22.0% 5.4% 39.1% 33.1% 17.7%
2017 16 5.23 5.30 15.7% 8.6% 38.3% 29.9% 23.5%

The 4:05 slate of games kicks off with the Nationals and Braves. Every time he pitches, Julio Teheran gets the same write up. He’s elite against RH hitting with a .267 wOBA and 25.1% K rate. It’s a different story against LH hitting with a .343 wOBA and 14.5% K rate. The other issue with Teheran is that his overall K rate has dropped to just 15.7% this season. He’ll take on a Nationals offense that owns a 19.3% K rate, .346 wOBA and 111 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: As long as the Nationals roll out 4-5 LH bats as expected, we can cross Teheran off the list. Even if they don’t I’m not sure I would want Teheran anyways as he isn’t striking anyone out this season and this Nationals offense owns all kinds of power with a .346 wOBA vs. RH pitching.

Stephen Strasburg
stephen-strasburg-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $12,500 Salary: $24,300
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 1 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 3.18 3.60 30.6% 7.4% 39.5% 26.6% 21.4%
2017 16 3.37 3.51 28.8% 6.6% 44.9% 28.3% 20.5%

Stephen Strasburg is pitching at an elite level again this season. He owns a 3.51 ERA, 28.8% K rate and 6.6% BB rate through 16 starts. He’s allowing a .269 woBA vs. LH and .285 wOBA vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. While a matchup with the Braves is a downgrade in the strikeout department they otherwise lack power vs. RH pitching. They check in at 19.8% K rate, .310 wOBA and 88 wRC+.

Quick Breakdown: Strasburg is the one true ace going on the afternoon slate. He’s easily the top option in cash games though Severino isn’t far behind if the Yankees are included where you are playing.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

If you’re pitching Strasburg today, Freddie Freeman is the one bat you are worried about. He owns a .428 wOBA vs. RH pitching. His return to the lineup does give this Braves offense some legitimacy but this still isn’t an ideal place to target. The Braves have the lowest implied team total on the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.317 0.295 0.099 26.2% 7.9% 13.7% 43.0% OF $2,800 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.331 0.307 0.137 28.3% 3.4% 12.3% 47.6% 2B $2,400 2B $2,700 2B $5,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.428 0.429 0.320 42.7% 15.5% 21.3% 28.6% 3B $3,200 1B/3B $3,700 1B $7,200
4 Matt Kemp RIGHT 0.334 0.348 0.212 36.1% 4.9% 23.8% 40.9% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.341 0.358 0.137 33.8% 11.4% 16.3% 43.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,100 RF $6,000
6 Matt Adams LEFT 0.353 0.358 0.240 39.3% 8.1% 24.5% 34.0% 1B $2,600 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.362 0.342 0.155 42.1% 7.7% 24.9% 42.9% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.269 0.292 0.093 30.0% 9.1% 23.3% 51.1% SS $2,200 SS $2,700 SS $5,400
9 Julio Teheran RIGHT 0.149 0.184 0.015 10.5% 1.3% 26.6% 50.0% P $7,700 P $6,700 P $13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Washington

If you were paying attention above, you already know where we are going here. Against LH hitting, Strasburg owns a .343 wOBA and 14.5% K rate. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are elite options against just about any RH pitcher. Harper owns a .380 wOBA while Murphy checks in at .411. This is also a great spot for value bats like Brian Goodwin and Adam Lind. who will presumably start in the outfield in place of Michael Taylor.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Goodwin LEFT 0.326 0.294 0.196 33.0% 9.7% 27.3% 45.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.263 0.267 0.059 21.7% 9.8% 20.3% 55.6% SS $2,500 2B/SS $2,900 2B $5,700
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.380 0.397 0.232 34.4% 18.5% 15.8% 39.7% OF $4,800 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.326 0.337 0.188 36.3% 5.6% 22.7% 45.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.411 0.396 0.252 38.2% 6.9% 8.5% 35.5% 2B $3,800 2B $4,800 2B $9,300
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.350 0.353 0.197 35.2% 10.0% 17.2% 36.7% 3B $3,700 3B $4,100 3B $8,000
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.300 0.314 0.158 32.6% 6.2% 17.9% 37.6% C $2,400 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Ryan Raburn RIGHT 0.292 0.277 0.156 39.5% 7.2% 36.6% 45.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 LF $5,600
9 Stephen Strasburg RIGHT 0.182 0.208 0.065 12.3% 2.8% 16.9% 70.2% P $10,800 P $12,500 P $24,300

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Brian Goodwin and Adam Lind

Stackability – GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.

San Diego at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

San Diego Philadelphia
sandiegomlb Jhoulys Chacin philadelphiamlb Aaron Nola
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PHI-143 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.349 0.350 36.1% 9.6% 13.7% 50.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.310 29.9% 9.8% 21.5% 52.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.294 0.289 26.4% 7.1% 24.5% 49.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.292 0.271 27.2% 4.0% 27.2% 54.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
jhoulys-chacin-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,700 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 11 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 4.38 4.81 18.8% 8.7% 48.4% 31.6% 19.0%
2017 16 4.32 4.76 19.8% 7.8% 52.8% 31.0% 20.4%

The Padres and Phillies game features an over/under of just eight. This is likely where most people will be selecting their SP2 from. Chacin owns a 4.76 ERA, 19.8% K rate and 7.8% BB rate through 16 starts this season. He generates ground balls at 52.8% which is an elite number. He’ll take on a lowly Phillies offense that owns a 23.8% K rate, .299 wOBA and 81 wrC+ against RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: While Chacin doesn’t have elite strikeout upside he should be incredibly safe in this matchup. He owns a 52.8% ground ball rate and will take on a Phillies offense that owns a wOBA under .300 and an 81 wRC+. Chacin is firmly in play as an SP2 in cash games and tournaments alike.

Aaron Nola
aaron-nola-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,200
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 4.78 25.1% 6.0% 55.2% 28.8% 23.2%
2017 11 4.00 4.13 23.5% 8.1% 49.5% 28.1% 23.8%

Aaron Nola can be a frustrating pitcher to roster. He owns a 4.13 ERA, 23.5% K rate and 8.1% BB rate. His ground balls are down just slightly this year at 49.5% but that’s still an excellent number. He gets to take on a Padres offense that leads the league in K rate at 25.9%. They also own a .299 wOBA and 84 wRC+ vs. RH pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At times this year, the Padres have made mediocre pitchers look like aces. Nola is slightly priced up here because of the matchup. He’s firmly in the conversation in all formats today. If I can make the salary work, he’ll be my SP2 on DK.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

If you want to attack Nola it makes the most sense to use LH hitters as he owns a .317 wOBA and 21.5% K rate versus them. The Padres have almost nothing to offer in that department. They have the second-lowest implied team total on the slate behind the Braves. The smartest thing to do is simply avoid them in all formats.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jose Pirela RIGHT 0.286 0.264 0.153 31.3% 4.4% 20.9% 53.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 2B $6,600
2 Manuel Margot RIGHT 0.296 0.269 0.135 22.6% 4.4% 21.7% 46.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
3 Wil Myers RIGHT 0.340 0.323 0.213 34.6% 9.3% 25.0% 42.8% 1B $3,000 1B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
4 Hunter Renfroe RIGHT 0.289 0.281 0.222 31.9% 4.7% 30.0% 42.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 RF $6,900
5 Cory Spangenberg LEFT 0.296 0.262 0.106 25.8% 5.5% 21.9% 49.2% 3B $3,000 3B/OF $3,300 2B $6,400
6 Erick Aybar SWITCH 0.282 0.263 0.100 21.0% 8.1% 14.7% 52.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
7 Carlos Asuaje LEFT 0.271 0.239 0.067 20.0% 8.8% 17.6% 41.7% 2B $2,200 2B $2,300 SS $4,500
8 Austin Hedges RIGHT 0.282 0.267 0.208 32.2% 5.3% 29.3% 38.1% C $2,100 C $2,100 C $4,200
9 Jhoulys Chacin RIGHT 0.307 0.219 0.000 11.1% 0.0% 14.3% 58.8% P $7,900 P $7,700 P $15,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Philadelphia

Jhoulys Chacin owns a .349 wOBA vs. LH and .294 vs. RH hitting over the past two seasons. He’s generating ground balls at 52% this season which makes him tough to target. This is another spot that makes sense to just stay away entirely. If you insist though, Daniel Nava owns a 35.4% hard contact rate vs. RH pitching and makes some sense in large tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.313 0.336 0.107 35.4% 8.1% 19.1% 38.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
2 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.301 0.276 0.170 28.4% 5.7% 21.0% 40.2% SS $2,600 SS $3,500 SS $6,800
3 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.285 0.315 0.142 28.2% 6.6% 16.2% 46.4% 3B $3,100 3B $3,800 3B $7,600
4 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.324 0.325 0.209 38.6% 5.5% 22.9% 42.3% 1B $3,400 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
5 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.314 0.297 0.149 33.8% 8.9% 31.0% 45.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 LF $8,000
6 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.331 0.307 0.151 29.6% 8.2% 21.1% 43.1% OF $2,300 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,400
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.282 0.301 0.154 31.7% 6.2% 29.6% 48.1% C $2,100 C $2,800 C $5,600
8 Andres Blanco SWITCH 0.307 0.303 0.136 26.3% 7.2% 19.4% 50.6% SS $2,100 2B/3B $2,600 2B $5,100
9 Aaron Nola RIGHT 0.113 0.146 0.027 5.3% 9.3% 44.2% 76.5% P $8,900 P $9,900 P $19,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Daniel Nava

Stackability – RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

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About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.