MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 26th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-05-26 16:49:02

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Atlanta								Boston
			Sean Newcomb							Drew Pomeranz
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			BOS-121							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.305	0.394	40.0%	17.7%	23.5%	45.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.217	0.317	38.9%	0.0%	18.2%	38.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.248	0.246	27.7%	10.0%	27.8%	49.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.421	0.391	36.6%	14.4%	21.6%	35.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Newcomb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,900	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	19	4.71	4.32	23.7%	12.5%	43.8%	27.0%	17.5%
	2018	9	3.88	2.39	27.1%	11.2%	48.9%	29.6%	22.7%
	L14	2	4.75	0.75	21.3%	12.8%	46.7%	38.7%	12.9%

This is the only truly early game of the day, so it doesn’t appear on the afternoon slate on either DK or FD. Sean Newcomb has been excellent this season, but it’s hard to get overly excited about any pitcher going into Fenway to take on the Red Sox. The lefty has a strikeout rate over 27%, but walks (11.2%) have been a problem for him. Newcomb has done a good job keeping the ball in the ballpark – just 3 homers allowed in nearly 53 innings – but the Red Sox have been one of the best offenses in the league this season, especially against left-handed pitching. Boston is also a lineup without a ton of built-in strikeouts, so Newcomb makes for a GPP dart at best here.

Quick Breakdown: Newcomb is talented, but a matchup against the Red Sox leaves much to be desired.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Drew Pomeranz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30	Salary Rank:
	2017	32	4.31	3.32	23.5%	9.3%	43.2%	32.5%	20.3%
	2018	6	4.79	5.97	21.1%	12.0%	36.0%	37.1%	15.7%
	L14	2	6.14	7.88	18.2%	18.2%	32.1%	28.6%	25.0%

Drew Pomeranz has been mediocre to start 2018. His 4.77 SIERA suggests his 5.97 ERA is a bit unlucky, but a 4.77 SIERA isn’t exactly something to be bragging about. The lefty has been a solid source of strikeouts in the past, but his K-rate so far this season is down a bit to 21.1%. He’s also walking far too many (12% BBs this year), which has led to trouble. Pomeranz has shown he can get lefties out, which is a nice attribute when you’re facing a lineup that includes Freddie Freeman. Still, the Braves have enough scary right-handed hitters to give Pomeranz some trouble today. We also know Fenway is a great park for hitting.

Quick Breakdown: Pomeranz doesn’t have much upside in a matchup at home against a talented Atlanta offense.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

While I’m not huge on either pitcher in this game, they’re also not all that attackable. Pomeranz has shown that he can get knocked around so far this season, and he has really struggled against righties (.421 wOBA allowed, 5 homers), albeit in a limited sample. I won’t be paying up for Freddie Freeman in this spot, but I think you can include him if you’re inclined to stack the Braves. I’d limit my exposure to the righties, but Freeman’s a good enough hitter to play in essentially any matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.396	0.345	0.407	41.7%	1.8%	12.5%	35.4%	2B	$4,700	N/A	N/A
2	Ronald Acuna	RIGHT	0.361	0.364	0.219	34.8%	8.3%	25.0%	47.8%	OF	$3,700	N/A	N/A
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.472	0.475	0.316	47.8%	13.2%	17.6%	39.1%	1B	$4,600	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.345	0.368	0.169	34.6%	7.1%	14.3%	43.6%	OF	$3,800	N/A	N/A
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.409	0.290	0.231	41.7%	10.3%	6.9%	41.7%	C	$2,600	N/A	N/A
6	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.260	0.271	0.021	29.7%	7.8%	19.6%	44.4%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Flowers	RIGHT	0.494	0.501	0.300	50.0%	33.3%	13.3%	50.0%	C	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.287	0.390	0.080	40.0%	3.8%	19.2%	40.0%	3B	$2,500	N/A	N/A
9	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.352	0.113	0.222	42.9%	5.3%	21.1%	38.5%	SS	$2,900	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr, Ozzie Albies

Secondary Plays – Kurt Suzuki / Tyler Flowers, Freddie Freeman

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston

I’m a believer in Newcomb’s talent, but that doesn’t mean you can’t play some Red Sox here. Some of their better hitters are in play just about every time they’re playing at home. That means I’m cool with firing up some righties like Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez against the left-hander. While Newcomb has shown a slight reverse-split so far in the big leagues, the Sox don’t have many left-handed bats that really stand out. You can go with a mini-stack here because I doubt it will be all that popular for GPPs, but I’d rather play a one or two of the Red Sox hitters as one-offs on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Mookie Betts	RIGHT	0.533	0.465	0.537	37.5%	10.6%	4.3%	35.0%	OF	$5,400	N/A	N/A
2	Hanley Ramirez	RIGHT	0.344	0.251	0.154	38.7%	7.1%	19.0%	58.1%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
3	J.D. Martinez	RIGHT	0.365	0.515	0.132	52.0%	2.6%	33.3%	48.0%	OF	$4,500	N/A	N/A
4	Xander Bogaerts	RIGHT	0.381	0.364	0.148	16.7%	6.9%	31.0%	16.7%	SS	$4,100	N/A	N/A
5	Dustin Pedroia	RIGHT								2B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
6	Eduardo Nunez	RIGHT	0.307	0.267	0.047	27.0%	4.3%	15.2%	47.2%	2B	$2,800	N/A	N/A
7	Rafael Devers	LEFT	0.263	0.309	0.200	27.3%	2.2%	26.1%	48.5%	3B	$3,700	N/A	N/A
8	Christian Vazquez	RIGHT	0.304	0.232	0.071	20.8%	3.4%	13.8%	45.8%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Jackie Bradley	LEFT	0.242	0.227	0.000	27.3%	2.6%	34.2%	63.6%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts

Stackability – ORANGE

Arizona at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Arizona								Oakland
			Clay Buchholz							Daniel Mengden
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			OAK-155							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.000	0.217	20.0%	0.0%	16.7%	30.0%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.228	0.352	40.7%	0.0%	13.3%	28.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.666	0.655	60.0%	16.7%	0.0%	20.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.339	0.354	36.6%	4.6%	18.3%	48.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Clay Buchholz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		20 of 30
	2017	2	5.82	12.27	12.5%	7.5%	28.1%	28.1%	18.8%
	2018	1	6.03	1.80	11.1%	5.6%	26.7%	33.3%	13.3%
	L14	1	6.03	1.80	11.1%	5.6%	26.7%	33.3%	13.3%

Clay Buchholz returned from obscurity to pitch pretty well in his first start with the D-Backs last weekend. The right-hander twirled 5 innings of 2-hit ball while allowing just a single run in an eventual 4-1 loss to the Mets. While he pitched admirable, Buchholz hasn’t shown any strikeout upside at the big league level since 2015 when he posted a slightly above-average K-rate with the Red Sox. He showed a ground ball lean early in his career, but his skills in that department have waned considerably. The A’s will strike out a decent amount and this is a favorable park for pitching, but Buchholz has minimal upside.

Quick Breakdown: Buchholz is an easy fade.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Daniel Mengden
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$13,700
	Salary Rank:		9 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30	Salary Rank:		12 of 30
	2017	7	4.68	3.14	17.2%	5.3%	39.2%	25.2%	18.3%
	2018	10	4.26	3.30	16.1%	2.5%	38.6%	38.5%	16.2%
	L14	3	4.81	1.37	12.0%	1.3%	39.1%	35.4%	16.9%

Mengden has been raising some eyebrows of late and he has one of those admirable twirly mustaches like a 1920s magician. He also hasn’t allowed more than 2 earned runs in a start since late-April. However, his SIERA is nearly a full run higher than his 3.30 ERA, and his hard contact rate is lurking dangerously close to 40%. The righty hasn’t yet displayed much K potential in the majors (18.7% for his career). He’s been elite in terms of control (2.5% walks), and he does get the benefit of facing a watered-down Arizona lineup today. Mengden doesn’t have outstanding strikeout upside here, but he’s a playable value option given the matchup, ballpark and recent form.

Quick Breakdown: Mengden is a workable SP2 option in all formats given the weak pitching on the afternoon slate.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Mengden is a right-hander that has shown reverse-split tendencies thus far in his career. If you think he’s due for a poor outing, though, I don’t hate hitters of either handedness in this spot against him. Paul Goldschmidt has been awful this season, but he has shown signs that he could be on the verge of putting it back together. He’s also cheap, so I like Goldy a decent amount. I won’t be fully stacking Arizona, however, especially because most of their lineup isn’t all that inspiring. Jake Lamb and David Peralta are the preferred targets from the left side.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	David Peralta	LEFT	0.368	0.278	0.224	47.3%	10.1%	19.4%	48.9%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,400
2	Chris Owings	RIGHT	0.260	0.258	0.089	26.8%	7.1%	27.1%	49.1%	OF	$2,300	2B/OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$5,700
3	Jake Lamb	LEFT	0.359	0.338	0.231	43.8%	10.3%	34.5%	43.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,800	3B	$7,700
4	Paul Goldschmidt	RIGHT	0.309	0.306	0.088	38.2%	13.5%	33.1%	47.4%	1B	$3,800	1B	$4,200	1B	$8,300
5	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.369	0.304	0.214	41.3%	15.0%	21.7%	28.0%	2B	$2,500	2B/3B	$3,200	3B	$6,700
6	Ketel Marte	SWITCH	0.274	0.343	0.067	26.1%	7.1%	14.2%	56.3%	2B	$2,300	2B/SS	$2,800	SS	$5,700
7	Socrates Brito	LEFT								OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,500
8	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.249	0.167	0.091	40.7%	12.0%	52.0%	33.3%	C	$2,000	C	$2,600	C	$4,600
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.265	0.314	0.108	23.9%	8.8%	13.2%	37.9%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,400

Elite Plays – David Peralta

Secondary Plays – Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Oakland

Clay Buchholz got solid results in his first start against the Mets, but he gets a considerably more daunting foe today in Oakland. He’ll have to deal with a DH today going into an American League park, and we know the A’s have power up and down the lineup. Unless Buchholz has reinvented himself late in his career like Charlie Morton or Rich Hill, I’m just going to side with the notion that he’s been bouncing around the league for a reason. The ballpark here isn’t ideal, but the Athletics have proven to be one of the most stackable teams in the league this season. Hitters of either handedness are squarely in play.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Matt Joyce	LEFT	0.346	0.354	0.179	33.0%	15.6%	24.5%	31.8%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,600
2	Marcus Semien	RIGHT	0.300	0.269	0.097	26.6%	6.4%	21.2%	45.1%	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000	SS	$7,200
3	Jed Lowrie	SWITCH	0.379	0.312	0.266	37.4%	12.6%	18.2%	39.4%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,300	2B	$8,300
4	Matt Olson	LEFT	0.377	0.312	0.228	50.6%	11.4%	31.4%	34.2%	1B	$3,000	1B	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,600
5	Matt Chapman	RIGHT	0.381	0.387	0.233	41.5%	12.2%	23.6%	39.8%	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,600	3B	$9,100
6	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.357	0.389	0.129	41.8%	7.1%	21.4%	49.4%	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,500
7	Dustin Fowler	LEFT	0.346	0.334	0.188	40.7%	11.1%	13.9%	48.1%	OF	$2,500	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,400
8	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.310	0.266	0.088	39.2%	6.0%	13.0%	44.9%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,400
9	Franklin Barreto	RIGHT								SS	$2,000	SS	$3,100	SS	$6,000

Elite Plays – The Matts (Chapman, Olson, Joyce), Marcus Semien, Jed Lowrie

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Lucroy, Chad Pinder, Dustin Fowler, Stephen Piscotty

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Kansas City at Texas – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Texas
			Ian Kennedy							Bartolo Colon
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TEX-140							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.336	0.365	38.6%	6.9%	24.5%	20.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.322	39.2%	4.4%	15.2%	48.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.379	0.383	41.6%	7.4%	18.4%	39.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.312	0.372	42.7%	0.8%	17.2%	50.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Ian Kennedy
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$11,800
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2017	30	4.88	5.38	20.0%	9.3%	36.0%	41.7%	11.8%
	2018	10	4.22	5.30	21.0%	7.1%	31.3%	40.4%	19.3%
	L14	3	4.65	10.91	19.5%	7.8%	26.4%	41.1%	17.9%

Ian Kennedy hasn’t been as awful as his bloated 5.30 ERA may indicate, but he’s certainly not been good. The veteran is a fly-ball pitcher allowing a hard contact rate over 40%. You know what that means: dongs. Many, many dongs. Kennedy has served up 30 or more homers in 3 consecutive years, and he’s already at 9 through 10 starts this year. He’s a guy with a generally neutral split, and he’s going into a hot, hitter-friendly environment today. There are some strikeouts in the Rangers lineup, but the downside for Kennedy here is immense.

Quick Breakdown: The Rangers generally aren’t a good offense, but they have enough power to scare me away from Kennedy.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Bartolo Colon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		20 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2017	28	5.08	6.48	13.7%	5.4%	41.8%	35.8%	17.8%
	2018	8	3.91	3.51	16.4%	2.3%	49.7%	41.2%	13.0%
	L14	3	4.26	4.00	14.5%	2.6%	50.0%	32.3%	16.1%

Bartolo Colon turned 45 the other day, which means he’s older than Gleyber Torres and “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr combined. Even so, he’s still chugging along. Bart isn’t a guy that is missing many bats at this stage of his career (16.4% this season), but he pumps the strike zone with fastballs and dares hitters to make him pay. It’s been working for the most part this season, but his hard contact rate is over 41% and the BABIP against him is incredibly low at .207. There figures to be some regression coming here. Colon has also already allowed 13 home runs, and a hot afternoon in Arlington isn’t a fun environment for pitchers. The Royals don’t have an imposing lineup, but Colon could be in for a rough one here today.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t see the appeal in targeting pitchers in this game.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals hitters get a favorable matchup against a hittable Bartolo Colon this afternoon. The Kansas City lineup isn’t all that deep, but there are a few plus bats near the top of the order. Mike Moustakas grades out as an excellent play in a good home run park against Big Sexy, while I also think you can play a few of the righty sticks like Salvador Perez, Whit Merrifield and Jorge Soler. Jon Jay typically hits leadoff, and he’s fine enough if you need some savings. Alex Gordon is also playable if he’s back in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.334	0.311	0.067	34.5%	5.4%	14.3%	53.6%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,400
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.315	0.407	0.050	37.1%	10.0%	18.6%	41.7%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,000
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.446	0.370	0.286	49.5%	8.4%	13.0%	30.4%	3B	$4,000	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,100
4	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.378	0.376	0.250	51.4%	3.6%	13.1%	30.0%	C	$3,800	C	$4,300	C	$8,600
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.331	0.355	0.123	33.3%	12.0%	23.2%	46.2%	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
6	Hunter Dozier	RIGHT	0.252	0.416	0.000	33.3%	5.9%	23.5%	41.7%	3B	$2,100	1B	$3,200	IF/OF	$6,800
7	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.376	0.310	0.180	35.2%	6.2%	18.6%	52.1%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,700
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.300	0.243	0.056	31.6%	6.6%	8.8%	42.7%	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,500
9	Ramon Torres	SWITCH								SS	$2,200	2B/3B	$2,900	2B	$5,700

Elite Plays – Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield, Jon Jay, Jorge Soler, Alex Gordon

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Texas

The Rangers are in a great spot today against Ian Kennedy, who struggles with hard contact, fly balls and, obviously, home runs. Texas has been a frustrating team to stack for much of the season, but there’s an awful lot going in their favor today. The lefties are the preferred targets, but I won’t talk you out of playing right-handed hitters against Kennedy, either. They’ll be popular, but with good reason. The usual suspects will be popular, but if you want a low-owned power bat, look no further than Ronald Guzman. The ball should be flying in Texas today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Delino DeShields	RIGHT	0.252	0.242	0.077	25.4%	7.8%	26.2%	41.9%	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,300
2	Shin-Soo Choo	LEFT	0.395	0.365	0.169	45.9%	13.2%	17.6%	52.3%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,100
3	Isiah Kiner-Falefa	RIGHT	0.294	0.332	0.116	32.9%	4.6%	16.7%	50.0%	3B	$3,300	2B/3B	$3,700	2B	$7,700
4	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.397	0.376	0.214	37.5%	9.3%	15.7%	55.8%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,200	RF	$8,000
5	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.272	0.297	0.129	23.2%	7.8%	17.8%	47.4%	SS	$3,700	SS	$3,800	SS	$7,600
6	Joey Gallo	LEFT	0.392	0.308	0.259	45.6%	9.2%	32.0%	32.6%	OF	$3,200	1B/OF	$4,200	1B	$8,200
7	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.334	0.276	0.085	46.2%	9.1%	30.3%	48.6%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,200	2B	$6,700
8	Robinson Chirinos	RIGHT	0.281	0.220	0.206	50.0%	6.9%	43.1%	23.5%	C	$2,100	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
9	Ronald Guzman	LEFT	0.276	0.350	0.193	29.8%	7.1%	31.6%	42.1%	1B	$2,600	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,300

Elite Plays – Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara, Shin-soo Choo, Rougned Odor, Ronald Guzman

Secondary Plays – Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Robinson Chirinos, Delino DeShields

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
St. Louis								Pittsburgh
			Jack Flaherty							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			STL-108							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.233	0.303	50.0%	11.1%	26.7%	46.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.276	0.319	20.9%	9.7%	9.7%	40.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.274	0.273	37.0%	4.6%	34.1%	33.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	0.360	33.7%	7.4%	24.0%	36.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jack Flaherty
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$10,900	Salary:		$21,100
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30
	2017	5	4.62	6.33	21.3%	10.6%	47.6%	31.8%	15.9%
	2018	4	3.20	2.31	30.3%	7.9%	40.0%	43.6%	18.2%
	L14	2	2.68	1.35	33.3%	4.2%	30.0%	36.7%	26.7%

Jack Flaherty turned in 3 solid starts for the Cardinals before careering last time out. The young right-hander fanned 13 Phillies over the course of 7.2 dominant innings last Sunday. He was cheap back then, but today his price has been jacked up for a road date with the Pirates. The Pirates aren’t a team that whiffs nearly as much as the Phillies, but it’s still a middling offense in one of baseball’s premier pitching parks. Flaherty has been giving up plenty of hard contact, but he showed elite K stuff in the minors and that appears to be translating to the top level. He won’t be striking out 13 again today, but I won’t talk you out of playing him if you’re interested.

Quick Breakdown: Flaherty has the talent to pay off this price tag, and he’s a solid option given the lack of viable pitchers on the afternoon slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$17,000
	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%
	2018	10	4.82	3.05	17.1%	8.6%	38.5%	27.0%	23.0%
	L14	3	3.89	4.00	19.4%	2.8%	41.8%	26.8%	21.4%

Trevor Williams is a below-average strikeout arm (17.1% this season, 17.9% career) going up against a Cardinals offense full of serviceable hitters. Williams has been respectable on the year, but his 4.80 SIERA is quite a bit higher than his 3.05 ERA. Williams will have a solid outing every now and then, but he’s not a guy that projects as a pitcher that should be priced at over $8,000 on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: Williams is overpriced for his ability, matchup and upside.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Trevor Williams isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s historically been a guy you can attack with some lefties. Unfortunately, the Cardinals happen to be lacking in that department. Matt Carpenter has struggled this season, but he’s showing signs of perking up. Considering he’s cheap and a solid hitter, he’s the STL bat in which I have the most interest. You can try guys like Tommy Pham and Marcell Ozuna as one-offs, but this is an offense that doesn’t look all that appealing on this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Tommy Pham	RIGHT	0.379	0.327	0.209	41.0%	14.8%	27.4%	44.9%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,500	CF	$9,300
2	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.429	0.455	0.202	49.4%	13.5%	25.5%	25.0%	3B	$3,500	2B/3B	$3,700	3B	$7,600
3	Jose Martinez	RIGHT	0.439	0.428	0.167	38.5%	8.3%	12.2%	53.3%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,200
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.342	0.311	0.071	46.7%	5.4%	22.8%	48.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,300
5	Tyler O’Neill	RIGHT	0.461	0.552	0.476	46.7%	4.2%	29.2%	26.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,200
6	Yairo Munoz	RIGHT	0.303	0.380	0.000	66.7%	11.8%	35.3%	55.6%	3B	$2,100	SS	$3,400	SS	$6,800
7	Francisco Pena	RIGHT	0.277	0.287	0.103	27.6%	2.4%	24.4%	51.7%	C	$2,100	C	$3,000	C	$5,500
8	Kolten Wong	LEFT	0.280	0.248	0.149	28.2%	7.3%	17.3%	50.7%	2B	$2,000	2B	$2,900	2B	$5,900
9	Jack Flaherty	RIGHT	0.135	0.228	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	42.9%	66.7%	P	$7,500	P	$10,900	P	$21,100

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Tommy Pham, Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Unless the matchup is glorious, the Pirates are typically an easy offense to ignore, especially when they’re playing at PNC. Flaherty has been somewhat vulnerable against lefties in his career, and Corey Dickerson, Gregory Polanco and Josh bell and Austin Meadows are decent hitters. I don’t hate the sneaky all-lefty stack of Pirates, but this is an offense I’ll be ignoring against Flaherty.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.302	0.340	0.057	40.4%	8.2%	13.1%	38.3%	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,500	2B	$6,400
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.367	0.335	0.234	34.7%	12.6%	21.2%	31.6%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	RF	$8,400
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.290	0.310	0.147	22.1%	7.8%	18.4%	47.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,900	CF	$9,400
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.332	0.378	0.135	33.6%	10.1%	18.1%	49.1%	1B	$3,200	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,400
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.359	0.252	0.201	31.2%	5.5%	9.7%	27.3%	OF	$3,900	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,200
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.432	0.539	0.229	41.8%	11.8%	16.8%	34.2%	C	$3,300	C	$3,700	C	$7,500
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.395	0.471	0.183	36.2%	10.5%	16.5%	39.4%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,700	3B	$7,600
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.324	0.426	0.161	28.0%	7.6%	20.6%	37.6%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,700
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.102	0.188	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	44.4%	66.7%	P	$6,700	P	$8,600	P	$17,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Gregory Polanco (GPP), Josh Bell (GPP), Corey Dickerson (GPP), Austin Meadows (GPP)

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Philadelphia
			Jaime Garcia							Aaron Nola
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PHI-185							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.391	0.365	38.9%	6.0%	20.0%	32.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.278	0.299	20.4%	9.2%	12.2%	53.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.393	0.365	41.3%	14.1%	21.9%	41.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.232	0.251	31.5%	1.7%	35.0%	45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,000
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30
	2017	27	4.54	4.41	19.2%	9.5%	54.8%	30.5%	20.7%
	2018	8	4.73	6.28	21.4%	11.8%	38.6%	40.5%	14.7%
	L14	2	6.88	7.27	13.6%	18.2%	34.5%	34.5%	17.2%

Jaime Garcia is about a league-average strikeout left-hander that has struggled with his control in the early going. His walk rate is hovering around 12%, and he’s not generating nearly as many ground balls as we’re used to seeing. Garcia is a 55.6% ground ball guy for his career, and this season that mark is way down to 38.6%. He’s giving up a hard contact rate north of 40% and is going into a tough park to take on an underrated Phillies offense. It helps that he’s going into the National League here, but something isn’t right with Garcia this season. He’s also coming off a shoulder issue. Until he turns it around, he’s an easy pass.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia hasn’t looked right this season, so I’m fading him until he flashes some form.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,300	Salary:		$12,200	Salary:		$23,900
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	27	3.60	3.54	26.6%	7.1%	49.8%	29.7%	21.6%
	2018	10	3.52	2.37	23.0%	5.7%	50.0%	25.0%	22.2%
	L14	2	3.99	3.75	19.6%	5.9%	47.2%	34.2%	29.0%

Nola is expensive, but he’s by far the most talented pitcher on the early slate. His strikeout rate is down about 3% from last season, but it’s still sitting at a passable 23%. He’s gotten his walks down a little, as well, and his soft contact rate is comparable to his hard contact rate. Nola has kept the ball on the ground at a 50% clip and he hasn’t yielded more than 4 earned runs in any start. His matchup today against a tough Jays offense isn’t perfect, but Toronto is losing the DH going into an NL park, which helps. Nola isn’t a must-play on this slate, but he’s a strong option, as usual.

Quick Breakdown: Nola probably won’t get blown up, and he’s one of the top options on what appears to be a mediocre slate for pitching.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

The Blue Jays have a strong offense, but Nola isn’t a pitcher I want to be picking on. The ballpark is favorable for offense, but there are a number of better spots for bats today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.364	0.368	0.183	41.4%	18.8%	29.9%	34.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,700
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.314	0.288	0.228	35.7%	13.0%	26.1%	44.6%	3B	$4,200	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.404	0.386	0.200	36.6%	18.4%	24.0%	31.0%	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,200
4	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.446	0.410	0.289	45.1%	5.2%	20.6%	33.8%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,800	CF	$7,200
5	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.356	0.340	0.209	32.6%	7.9%	16.7%	38.9%	2B	$3,500	2B/3B	$4,100	2B	$8,500
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.375	0.250	0.189	35.2%	5.8%	17.4%	38.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,800
7	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.319	0.330	0.217	33.9%	13.4%	24.7%	49.2%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,600
8	Gio Urshela	RIGHT	0.157	0.339	0.000	25.0%	0.0%	27.3%	25.0%	SS	$2,100	3B	$2,800	3B	$5,900
9	Jaime Garcia	LEFT	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%	0.0%	P	$5,600	P	$5,800	P	$11,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Justin Smoak (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Philadelphia

Over the course of his career, Garcia has been an elite ground ball pitcher that has stifled his fellow lefties. So far this season, he has been…the opposite. Considering he’s only 31, I have a hard time believing Garcia is in steep decline. Still, Citizens Bank is a strong power park and the Phils do have some appealing right-handed hitters. Rhys Hoskins has been cold, but he’s too talented to scuffle forever. You can play Odubel Herrera in tournaments if you’re feeling frisky, but my exposure to Phillies is coming from the righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.445	0.338	0.105	40.6%	22.4%	12.2%	48.4%	2B	$3,900	2B	$4,600	2B	$9,300
2	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.393	0.319	0.125	40.0%	26.1%	26.1%	25.0%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,500
3	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.366	0.416	0.239	26.3%	7.8%	15.7%	44.7%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,600	IF/OF	$9,400
4	Aaron Altherr	RIGHT	0.406	0.342	0.296	45.0%	22.2%	22.2%	30.0%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,500	LF	$6,700
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.415	0.466	0.182	47.2%	13.5%	15.4%	38.9%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,500
6	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.387	0.211	0.211	33.3%	4.8%	9.5%	41.7%	3B	$3,200	3B	$3,600	3B	$7,400
7	Jorge Alfaro	RIGHT	0.342	0.289	0.107	44.4%	12.5%	31.3%	38.9%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,800
8	Scott Kingery	RIGHT	0.289	0.196	0.114	34.8%	2.8%	33.3%	34.8%	SS	$2,300	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.249	0.105	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	0.0%	33.3%	P	$9,300	P	$12,200	P	$23,900

Elite Plays – Rhys Hoskins, Cesar Hernandez, Maikel Franco, Carlos Santana

Secondary Plays – Aaron Altherr

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Saturday, May 26th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Arizona at Oakland – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Oakland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Kansas City at Texas – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Texas

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

St. Louis at Pittsburgh – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Toronto at Philadelphia – 4:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

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