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MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 16th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-09-17 01:51:57

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

LA Dodgers at Washington – 1:05 PM ET

LA Dodgers Washington
ladodgersmlb Rich Hill washingtonmlb A.J. Cole
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
LAD-134 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.376 0.356 25.0% 15.2% 23.2% 37.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.386 0.361 48.1% 15.0% 18.8% 44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.268 0.263 32.0% 7.3% 30.7% 39.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.278 20.0% 11.8% 22.4% 45.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rich Hill
rich-hill-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,000 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 20 3.29 2.12 29.4% 7.5% 45.3% 28.3% 22.3%
2017 22 3.75 3.67 28.9% 9.1% 38.9% 30.5% 20.6%
L30 5 3.39 4.40 29.2% 6.2% 38.2% 30.6% 13.9%

We won’t spend too much time on these first two games, as they are completely off any major slate on DraftKings, while FanDuel is offering them as a small two game “very early only” slate. I would suggest waiting to put any money down until we get to the 4:00 EST start times. Outside of one poor start against Arizona, Hill has been pitching well over the last couple of months. He also brings big time strikeout upside to the table, and a matchup against the Nationals is not as scary without Bryce Harper in there. He could very easily be the highest scoring pitcher of the two very early starts, but I slightly prefer Dallas Keuchel.

Quick Breakdown: Hill is my second favorite pitcher in these two very early starts, behind only Dallas Keuchel.

A.J. Cole
a-j-cole-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,500 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,400
Salary Rank: 21 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 8 4.33 5.17 23.2% 8.3% 31.9% 25.7% 18.6%
2017 6 5.23 3.79 20.5% 13.5% 45.0% 34.3% 18.6%
L30 3 4.96 2.29 23.5% 14.1% 46.2% 39.6% 18.9%

Cole has a 5.27 SIERA on the year and has struggled to find any sort of consistency at the major league level. He is not a fantasy option against a Dodgers team that is healthy again and finally swinging the bats well after an early-September slump.

Quick Breakdown: Cole can safely be ignored in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

LA Dodgers

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Chris Taylor RIGHT 0.369 0.339 0.221 35.2% 9.0% 25.1% 41.4% OF $3,300 2B/OF $3,600 2B $7,200
2 Corey Seager LEFT 0.360 0.386 0.168 44.4% 12.3% 20.1% 41.3% SS $3,000 SS $4,300 SS $8,400
3 Justin Turner RIGHT 0.359 0.369 0.147 35.3% 10.4% 10.7% 32.3% 3B $3,900 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Cody Bellinger LEFT 0.390 0.362 0.349 45.6% 11.6% 27.9% 35.6% 1B $4,400 1B/OF $5,100 IF/OF $10,000
5 Yasiel Puig RIGHT 0.375 0.358 0.263 34.6% 9.7% 19.2% 45.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,100 RF $8,100
6 Yasmani Grandal SWITCH 0.327 0.289 0.224 37.7% 6.6% 27.5% 41.4% C $2,700 C $3,300 C $6,400
7 Curtis Granderson LEFT 0.336 0.334 0.248 34.2% 15.1% 23.2% 30.4% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800
8 Logan Forsythe RIGHT 0.267 0.298 0.071 33.6% 14.9% 27.5% 47.3% 2B $2,900 2B/3B $3,000 2B $6,000
9 Rich Hill LEFT 0.095 0.146 0.000 18.8% 0.0% 37.0% 66.7% P $9,100 P $9,000 P $17,400

In both his small sample size this year and his major league career to date, Cole has really had problems with left-handed batters. He has allowed a .366 wOBA to LHBs for his career, and that number is worse this year. The hard contact has also been a problem. Feel free to load up with Dodgers LHBs, as they are in a great spot here.

Elite Plays – Corey Seager, Cody Bellinger, Yasmani Grandal

Secondary Plays – Justin Turner, Chris Taylor

Stackability – GREEN / YELLOW

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.238 0.254 0.068 25.0% 7.5% 17.5% 54.2% SS $4,400 SS $5,100 IF/OF $9,900
2 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.405 0.362 0.225 31.0% 6.5% 18.2% 47.2% SS $2,800 2B/SS $3,700 2B $7,200
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.455 0.425 0.318 38.2% 17.0% 11.3% 31.6% 3B $3,500 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
4 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.420 0.406 0.324 43.2% 9.5% 15.1% 44.2% 1B $2,900 1B $3,800 1B $7,600
5 Howie Kendrick RIGHT 0.405 0.420 0.218 39.1% 10.3% 16.1% 50.0% OF $3,100 2B/OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.373 0.342 0.219 35.2% 6.4% 24.4% 50.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
7 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.341 0.386 0.143 21.7% 24.3% 13.5% 39.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 LF $6,900
8 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.320 0.280 0.156 17.0% 8.5% 25.4% 51.1% C $2,400 C $2,700 C $5,400
9 A.J. Cole RIGHT 0.000 0.000 100.0% 0.0% 50.0% 100.0% P $6,500 P $6,200 P $12,400

I am not going to mess with any hitters against Rich Hill, though it is worth noting that he has shown strong reverse splits this year. A lot of that may be noise due to sample size, as he has been neutral for his career with a .303 wOBA allowed to LHBs and a .300 wOBA allowed to RHBs. Regardless, I’m not that interested in anyone here.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – ORANGE

Seattle at Houston – 1:05 PM ET

Seattle Houston
seattlemlb Erasmo Ramirez houstonmlb Dallas Keuchel
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-168 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.346 0.377 44.9% 8.7% 21.9% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.202 0.207 20.0% 3.9% 31.1% 72.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.276 0.293 33.9% 3.6% 18.4% 48.1% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.301 24.4% 9.0% 18.0% 64.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Erasmo Ramirez
erasmo-ramirez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,900 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,400
Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 15 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 1 4.10 3.77 16.7% 6.9% 52.5% 26.3% 19.3%
2017 16 4.18 4.25 19.8% 5.6% 46.2% 38.0% 15.1%
L30 6 4.37 2.45 20.8% 6.9% 43.1% 32.0% 15.5%

Ramirez has a reputation as a gas can, but he’s really not that terrible. His ERA and SIERA sit in the low-fours, and he has allowed three or fewer runs in six straight starts. The Houston hitters will be very popular in these two early games — and you will likely need to take some if you are playing that slate — but the Dodgers are ahead of the Astros in my priority list. Again, this is another reason why you should simply ignore these first two games.

Quick Breakdown: Ramirez is not as bad as everyone makes him out to be, but he is not a DFS pitching option in a road game against the Astros.

Dallas Keuchel
dallas-keuchel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,000 Salary: $11,100 Salary: $21,600
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 26 3.77 4.55 20.5% 6.9% 56.7% 29.8% 21.1%
2017 20 3.71 3.03 20.6% 8.0% 65.8% 23.6% 26.1%
L30 6 3.94 3.38 18.3% 9.2% 67.8% 22.0% 23.7%

Keuchel is your top pitching option in these two early games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Mariners’ lineup which includes a lot of left-handed bats in the middle (Cano, Seager, and Alonso), and he still has very respectable numbers on the year with a 3.03 ERA, 3.72 SIERA, and a low hard contact rate allowed. I like the matchup and his odds at a victory, so I am fine with firing him up here.

Quick Breakdown: Keuchel is the top pitching option in the two early games, despite his recent struggles.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.331 0.354 0.069 37.9% 11.1% 13.7% 46.5% SS $3,700 SS $3,800 SS $7,600
2 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.316 0.334 0.203 21.8% 6.8% 18.9% 49.1% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 LF $8,100
3 Robinson Cano LEFT 0.260 0.301 0.105 29.5% 6.0% 15.1% 53.5% 2B $3,400 2B $4,700 2B $9,200
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.367 0.448 0.179 42.1% 19.7% 17.0% 43.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,700 RF $9,200
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.321 0.296 0.197 28.5% 5.8% 17.9% 32.2% 3B $4,000 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
6 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.353 0.356 0.205 38.6% 11.5% 20.8% 44.3% 1B $2,500 1B $3,400 3B $6,600
7 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.353 0.329 0.260 37.0% 8.3% 36.9% 28.3% C $3,400 C $3,300 C $6,600
8 Guillermo Heredia SWITCH 0.362 0.291 0.139 28.6% 6.4% 13.6% 44.0% OF $2,200 OF $2,700 LF $5,200
9 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.318 0.253 0.133 33.3% 3.6% 28.6% 49.3% OF $2,500 OF $3,300 RF $6,600

Keuchel has held LHBs to a ridiculous .202 wOBA this year, so all the lefties are instantly out of play. He has also held RHBs to a mark under .300, so again I am not that interested here. You could make a case for Nelson Cruz, of course, but that’s about where it stops for me.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nelson Cruz

Stackability – RED

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.372 0.367 0.237 37.9% 9.0% 20.5% 48.9% OF $3,200 OF $4,600 RF $9,000
2 Josh Reddick LEFT 0.365 0.330 0.197 32.2% 8.1% 12.3% 34.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.416 0.362 0.213 28.4% 8.1% 12.3% 45.7% 2B $3,900 2B $5,200 2B $10,000
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.372 0.385 0.227 38.5% 11.3% 21.3% 46.9% SS $3,200 SS $4,200 SS $8,100
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.396 0.335 0.238 37.3% 9.7% 20.3% 42.5% SS $2,900 OF/SS $3,900 IF/OF $7,600
6 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.329 0.328 0.176 32.1% 8.1% 16.3% 41.7% 3B $3,600 3B/SS $3,800 3B $7,600
7 Carlos Beltran SWITCH 0.310 0.299 0.185 32.9% 7.5% 18.4% 42.7% OF $2,000 OF $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
8 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.348 0.327 0.204 33.2% 2.8% 9.5% 45.1% 1B $3,500 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
9 Brian McCann LEFT 0.312 0.324 0.165 34.4% 10.1% 15.1% 40.6% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,800

If you are playing the two game slate, you probably have to take a hitter or two from here, simply because there aren’t many options out there. Ramirez is weaker against LHBs, as he has allowed them to post a .346 wOBA and 45% hard contact rate this year. Unfortunately, Houston’s bigger bats all hit from the right side. Reddick and Gonzalez are my favorite options, but you could try to pluck out one of the big RHBs with upside if needed.

Elite Plays – Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer

Stackability – YELLOW

Baltimore at NY Yankees – 4:05 PM ET

Baltimore NY Yankees
baltimoremlb Jeremy Hellickson nyyankeesmlb Jordan Montgomery
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-200 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.329 0.345 33.5% 7.6% 13.2% 30.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.305 0.330 22.6% 9.5% 15.5% 46.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.341 0.336 29.8% 5.4% 13.8% 38.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.301 28.9% 8.0% 23.4% 40.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jeremy Hellickson
jeremy-hellickson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $5,100 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.15 3.71 20.0% 5.8% 40.7% 25.9% 20.8%
2017 28 5.37 5.23 13.6% 6.4% 34.9% 31.5% 19.9%
L30 6 6.24 8.49 9.0% 7.5% 35.2% 34.6% 24.6%

This game marks the start of the “main” afternoon slate which consists of the four 4:00 starts on FanDuel and the four 4:00 starts plus the two 6:00 starts on DraftKings. I prefer the six game slate to the four game slate, so thumbs up to DraftKings for that. Regardless of which site you are playing on, you can safely ignore Jeremy Hellickson. He has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and he has to face a Yankees offense that ranks second in the league in wOBA against RHP and has scored 21 runs over the first two games of this series.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson can safely be avoided in all formats.

Jordan Montgomery
jordan-montgomery-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $6,800 Salary: $13,500
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 18 of 30 Salary Rank: 16 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 26 4.37 4.24 22.3% 8.2% 41.3% 27.9% 16.8%
L30 5 5.30 5.24 19.0% 13.0% 42.6% 35.3% 19.1%

I am a fan of Jordan Montgomery and think he will be a nice middle of the rotation starter in the major leagues for a long time, but he is not a fantasy option right now. The Yankees have come out and said that they are limiting his innings, so he is not going to pitch deep into this game. He has not pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in any start for the past two months, and he went only 3 1/3 innings in his last outing. There’s no reason to consider him today because of that limitation.

Quick Breakdown: Montgomery is being monitored by the Yankees in order to keep his innings and pitch counts in check, so he is not going to pitch deep into this game. As such, he can be ignored for DFS purposes.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Beckham RIGHT 0.339 0.333 0.185 36.6% 7.7% 25.9% 47.8% SS $3,400 SS $4,200 SS $8,000
2 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.358 0.390 0.253 46.8% 6.9% 15.1% 40.2% 3B $3,800 3B $4,500 3B $8,800
3 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.408 0.382 0.319 39.8% 8.5% 23.5% 42.7% 2B $3,300 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
4 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.319 0.316 0.167 32.4% 6.6% 18.5% 44.5% OF $3,500 OF $3,700 CF $7,200
5 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.306 0.317 0.132 32.1% 3.9% 23.7% 50.5% OF $3,600 1B/OF $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.337 0.285 0.188 30.8% 5.5% 21.2% 43.9% OF $3,100 OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,800
7 Chris Davis LEFT 0.302 0.309 0.132 34.7% 10.7% 39.6% 34.7% 1B $3,200 1B $3,200 IF/OF $6,300
8 Welington Castillo RIGHT 0.423 0.391 0.244 43.1% 4.4% 24.2% 33.8% C $2,900 C $3,300 C $6,600
9 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.304 0.285 0.103 29.9% 4.8% 16.9% 31.5% OF $2,000 OF $2,300 RF $4,400

This is a tough spot to peg. I like Montgomery as a pitcher, so I would naturally just avoid the Baltimore offense here. However, with Montgomery unlikely to be around longer than three or four innings, is there a sneaky opportunity here? The uncertainty is the problem. You could consider a full stack here, as if the Orioles happen to knock Montgomery around, you won’t see the elite bullpen arms for the Yankees. However, if Montgomery pitches well, the Yankees will likely follow him with their better arms. This is a “stack or fade” squad for me this afternoon.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Baltimore team stack, Tim Beckham, Manny Machado

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.357 0.334 0.197 33.0% 11.4% 18.2% 41.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 LF $8,700
2 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.350 0.327 0.141 31.5% 12.7% 23.2% 42.7% 1B $3,900 1B/3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.372 0.369 0.257 35.7% 6.8% 23.6% 44.5% C $3,700 C $5,000 C $9,600
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.364 0.289 0.227 25.3% 4.5% 11.5% 38.4% SS $3,100 SS $4,700 SS $9,300
5 Starlin Castro RIGHT 0.337 0.304 0.174 30.3% 3.3% 20.2% 47.8% 2B $3,000 2B $3,700 2B $7,200
6 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.419 0.421 0.315 44.0% 16.1% 31.6% 35.9% OF $4,200 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
7 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.342 0.338 0.155 26.0% 10.6% 12.3% 45.7% OF $3,800 OF $3,800 CF $7,600
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.323 0.342 0.178 30.4% 13.5% 22.3% 37.1% 3B $3,700 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
9 Greg Bird LEFT 0.231 0.293 0.105 32.8% 11.1% 28.3% 31.6% 1B $2,300 1B $3,000 1B $6,000

The Yankees have an implied team total of almost six full runs today, and they will undoubtedly be the most popular offense to use on the early slate. Hellickson has simply been awful this year, with a 13.6% strikeout rate, a 32% hard contact rate allowed, a 5.37 SIERA, and a 5.53 xFIP. Yikes. All aboard the Yankees train today. Hitters from both sides are in play, as Hellickson is generally neutral when it comes to batter splits.

Elite Plays – Brett Gardner, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Todd Frazier, Chase Headley

Stackability – GREEN

St. Louis at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

St. Louis Chicago Cubs
stlouismlb Michael Wacha cubsmlb Kyle Hendricks
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-144
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.321 29.7% 10.6% 20.1% 47.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.300 0.307 32.9% 10.2% 22.5% 44.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.293 26.2% 5.1% 23.9% 47.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.290 0.299 29.1% 5.0% 19.2% 55.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Michael Wacha
michael-wacha-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,700 Salary: $8,300 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30 Salary Rank: 10 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 24 4.31 5.09 18.8% 7.4% 46.6% 30.0% 18.8%
2017 27 4.17 3.99 22.1% 7.6% 47.4% 27.8% 20.7%
L30 6 4.62 5.01 16.9% 7.0% 49.5% 26.9% 22.2%

My Cardinals are really upsetting me these days. They have played seven games at Wrigley Field this year, and they have held leads in all seven of them. Their record in those games? 1-6. Every game is a two game swing, and the Cardinals now trail the Cubs by four games with only three weeks left in the season.

#$)(*#)(&%$##$#$

Michael Wacha has been very solid at Busch Stadium this year, but he has floundered to a 5.10 ERA on the road. The wind is also blowing out at Wrigley this afternoon (though not with any sort of gusto). When you combine Wacha’s splits with the wind and the dangerous Cubs offense, there is only one logical conclusion.

Quick Breakdown: Wacha can safely be avoided in all formats.

Kyle Hendricks
kyle-hendricks-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30 Salary Rank: 8 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 3.70 2.13 22.8% 5.9% 48.4% 25.8% 25.1%
2017 21 4.25 3.35 20.8% 7.5% 50.1% 30.8% 22.6%
L30 6 4.04 2.58 22.5% 7.3% 52.0% 20.8% 24.5%

When he is right, Kyle Hendricks generally gets the job done via a lot of ground balls. He is never going to be a huge strikeout guy, and he is one of those pitchers that is a better real life pitcher than a fantasy option. This is a decent matchup for run prevention, though it’s nothing spectacular. The Cardinals have been hitting the ball well in the second half. I just don’t see the upside with Hendricks in this spot, but the problem is that there really aren’t many pitching options on this slate. He’s probably the second best choice in cash games behind Carrasco and the second best option overall on FanDuel where the last two early games are excluded.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t love it, but Hendricks is in play because the pitching options are very limited this afternoon.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.367 0.376 0.219 43.2% 17.2% 19.3% 24.1% 1B $4,100 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.393 0.361 0.187 35.4% 12.4% 23.4% 51.9% OF $3,600 OF $4,500 CF $8,800
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.347 0.325 0.224 35.5% 3.1% 27.8% 32.5% SS $3,000 2B/SS $4,100 SS $8,100
4 Jose Martinez RIGHT 0.332 0.369 0.155 37.1% 8.6% 20.9% 45.8% OF $2,800 1B/OF $4,100 IF/OF $8,100
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.306 0.311 0.130 34.7% 4.9% 15.5% 46.3% C $3,300 C $3,600 C $7,200
6 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.354 0.324 0.151 28.6% 9.6% 14.8% 45.6% 2B $3,300 2B $3,300 2B $6,400
7 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.322 0.335 0.155 30.4% 12.2% 21.9% 48.3% OF $2,100 OF $3,300 RF $6,400
8 Harrison Bader RIGHT 0.246 0.249 0.103 33.3% 4.7% 30.2% 46.2% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 LF $5,400
9 Michael Wacha RIGHT 0.049 0.115 0.000 15.0% 2.7% 43.2% 86.7% P $7,700 P $8,300 P $16,200

There are plenty of good offenses to target this afternoon, so my interest in the Cardinals’ offense is very limited against Hendricks. The Chicago starter has allowed a wOBA of .300 or less to hitters from both sides of the plate, though lefties profile slightly better against him. His walk rate jumps from 5% against RHBs to over 10% against LHBs. Matt Carpenter is my preferred play here, but I am not terribly interested in anyone else.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Yadier Molina

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.323 0.326 0.153 33.5% 10.7% 14.5% 52.1% OF $3,900 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.384 0.341 0.239 30.3% 12.5% 19.9% 37.6% 3B $4,400 3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.383 0.404 0.239 34.6% 13.3% 12.5% 38.8% 1B $4,000 1B $5,300 1B $10,400
4 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.345 0.300 0.238 34.5% 6.3% 27.1% 52.1% C $3,400 C $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
5 Ian Happ SWITCH 0.365 0.349 0.294 35.9% 11.0% 31.0% 40.3% 2B $3,400 2B/OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
6 Kyle Schwarber LEFT 0.334 0.350 0.266 38.1% 11.5% 29.2% 39.5% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
7 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.294 0.273 0.182 29.3% 5.8% 29.7% 49.3% SS $3,600 2B/SS $3,500 2B $6,900
8 Jason Heyward LEFT 0.308 0.324 0.129 25.7% 9.3% 11.2% 47.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 RF $6,400
9 Kyle Hendricks RIGHT 0.138 0.107 0.036 7.1% 0.0% 51.7% 81.8% P $8,500 P $8,600 P $16,800

The Cubs have had some success against Michael Wacha in the past. Ian Happ is 2-for-6 against him. Both hits are home runs. Willson Contreras is 2-for-4 against him. Both hits are home runs, though he is 0-for-10 in the BvP department against Mia Khalifa (sorry, I couldn’t resist). Anthony Rizzo is 15-for-34 against him with three home runs. You get the picture. When you combine the BvP with the favorable wind and Wacha’s general struggles on the road, you have a perfectly viable team stack.

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Ian Happ, Ben Zobrist

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber

Stackability – GREEN

Kansas City at Cleveland – 4:10 PM ET

Kansas City Cleveland
kansascitymlb Jason Hammel clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-235 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.307 0.322 31.7% 6.2% 18.2% 33.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.314 0.306 33.0% 6.6% 26.6% 43.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.350 31.4% 6.0% 17.1% 43.2% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.275 26.3% 5.2% 28.8% 46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jason Hammel
jason-hammel-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,300 Salary: $5,500 Salary: $10,800
Salary Rank: 22 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 24 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.28 3.83 20.8% 7.7% 42.1% 32.5% 18.5%
2017 28 4.72 4.73 17.7% 6.1% 38.2% 31.5% 17.2%
L30 5 4.67 4.94 16.7% 3.8% 37.5% 34.3% 17.1%

The Indians may have had their 22 game winning streak snapped last night, but that does not mean that I am running out to start targeting pitchers against them. Hammel is a low upside arm with an ERA and SIERA near 5.00, and he has opened as a +200 underdog in this game. Pass.

Quick Breakdown: Hammel can safely be avoided in all formats.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,600 Salary: $13,300 Salary: $25,600
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 28 3.41 3.53 27.9% 5.8% 45.5% 29.3% 19.9%
L30 5 2.62 2.34 30.5% 1.5% 52.9% 19.5% 28.7%

Carrasco is the obvious chalk pitcher on the early slate. He is the most talented arm ————- by a wide margin. From his 3.41 ERA to his 3.38 SIERA to his 28% strikeout rate, no pitcher on the afternoon stable of games comes even close to his combination of safety and upside. He is a must play for me in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Carrasco is easily the top arm available on the afternoon slates. Fire him up with confidence.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Whit Merrifield RIGHT 0.325 0.305 0.163 28.0% 3.8% 13.8% 37.2% 2B $4,200 2B $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
2 Lorenzo Cain RIGHT 0.351 0.333 0.128 29.8% 7.8% 16.3% 45.2% OF $3,400 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
3 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.330 0.338 0.133 28.5% 5.8% 11.4% 51.1% OF $2,700 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
4 Eric Hosmer LEFT 0.409 0.390 0.209 33.6% 11.6% 16.2% 49.7% 1B $3,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Salvador Perez RIGHT 0.326 0.322 0.220 37.0% 2.8% 19.9% 32.9% C $3,100 C $3,300 C $6,600
6 Mike Moustakas LEFT 0.367 0.364 0.285 34.4% 6.6% 15.4% 29.8% 3B $2,700 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
7 Brandon Moss LEFT 0.291 0.332 0.232 37.2% 9.7% 31.3% 31.1% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,500 IF/OF $6,900
8 Alcides Escobar RIGHT 0.251 0.257 0.085 25.6% 1.6% 16.5% 43.2% SS $3,100 SS $3,000 SS $6,000
9 Alex Gordon LEFT 0.251 0.280 0.108 32.6% 7.2% 24.9% 40.0% OF $2,800 OF $2,800 LF $5,400

There is no point in targeting any hitters against the pitcher that is by far the top option on the slate. That is especially true with a low upside Royals offense. Let’s move on.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.332 0.340 0.225 31.8% 7.5% 12.8% 39.9% SS $4,900 SS $5,600 SS $10,800
2 Lonnie Chisenhall LEFT 0.369 0.337 0.263 33.6% 8.2% 19.4% 32.9% OF $2,500 OF $3,700 RF $7,200
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.384 0.347 0.264 33.9% 7.9% 10.7% 38.1% 2B $4,200 2B/3B $5,500 IF/OF $10,800
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.375 0.389 0.266 37.7% 14.0% 19.5% 35.0% 1B $3,900 1B $5,200 1B $10,200
5 Jay Bruce LEFT 0.370 0.374 0.279 43.2% 9.4% 21.6% 33.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,800 RF $9,300
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.372 0.391 0.231 37.7% 13.6% 17.9% 31.6% 1B $4,200 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
7 Yandy Diaz RIGHT 0.280 0.328 0.064 37.7% 9.1% 20.5% 59.0% 3B $2,400 3B $3,100 3B $6,000
8 Tyler Naquin LEFT 0.245 0.256 0.074 35.0% 6.7% 26.7% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 CF $4,800
9 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.273 0.263 0.108 23.5% 8.0% 27.0% 40.5% C $3,000 C $3,000 C $6,000

I will throw one word of caution out there: it is possible that the Indians will rest a lot of their regular starters today given the expanded September rosters and the afternoon start after a night game on Friday, especially when you consider that the winning streak has been snapped. If the regulars all play, they are obviously fine options in a favorable matchup against Hammel. Just keep an eye on the lineup. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play, and we might get some potential value if some of the starters sit.

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Edwin Encarnacion, Jay Bruce

Secondary Plays – Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz, Tyler Naquin, other potential value?

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84