MLB Grind Down: Saturday, September 30th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-10-01 10:18:20

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Houston at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Houston								Boston
			Lance McCullers							Drew Pomeranz
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.264	0.273	26.1%	5.8%	27.4%	58.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.347	0.306	32.7%	9.2%	28.2%	36.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.331	0.299	28.6%	9.2%	24.4%	63.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.304	0.316	32.7%	9.4%	22.5%	44.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Lance McCullers
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	14	3.68	3.22	30.1%	12.8%	57.3%	25.4%	19.9%
	2017	21	3.42	4.01	25.7%	7.7%	61.6%	27.5%	20.9%
	L30	2	4.14	5.19	21.6%	5.4%	42.3%	42.3%	15.4%

Right off the bat, I will caution you to monitor how much you play this weekend. Teams with nothing to play for can certainly use these games as glorified exhibitions, subbing players out like it’s an early March spring training game. In lieu of the usual detailed batter breakdowns, I will offer thoughts on how I expect the team to approach the game. Please keep an eye on lineups as they come out, as you will see some wild ones. There are few teams that have anything to play for at the moment, and this is not going to be an easy slate to break down.

With that out of the way, we have a two game “very early” (FanDuel) or “turbo” (DraftKings) slate. All four pitchers in these two games are talented, so it will be difficult to piece together bats. McCullers has posted solid numbers when healthy this season, and the Astros are still fighting for the top seed in the American League. However, I still don’t think they will let him pitch deep into the game. He threw just 63 pitches in his last outing, which was in a return from an injury, and it would shock me to see him go beyond 75-80 pitches here. The strikeout upside is there on a per-batter basis, but he isn’t going to go deep into this game.

Quick Breakdown: McCullers is a talented pitcher with plenty of upside, but he is unlikely to go more than five innings here and has to be avoided for DFS purposes.

Drew Pomeranz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	3.80	3.32	26.5%	9.3%	46.2%	31.5%	19.1%
	2017	31	4.29	3.38	23.8%	9.3%	42.4%	32.7%	20.3%
	L30	5	4.78	4.21	19.8%	9.0%	41.6%	39.0%	10.4%

While the Astros are jockeying for the top seed in the American League, the Red Sox are still trying to wrap up the American League East. They are two ahead of the Yankees with two to play, so one more win will get them there. While Pomeranz has a tidy ERA on the year, his command often goes wayward, and his advanced metrics suggest some regression. Still, the motivation factor is there, and there is upside in his left arm. The motivation part is huge, though it does mean he could be pulled early if he is struggling. The matchup also isn’t that great against a Houston squad that will likely roll out its “A” lineup. Still, Pomeranz is at home and is a solid pitcher, so there’s potential here.

Quick Breakdown: On the two game early slate, Pomeranz is one of the safer options on the board, as the Red Sox are still playing to win.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Houston sits one game behind Cleveland for the top spot in the American League. They should go all out here.

Pomeranz is largely splits-neutral and has allowed a 32.7% hard contact rate to hitters from each side of the plate this year. That’s the first time I have seen that so far this season. Yes, I’m geeking out on stats on September 30th. I will be rostering Pomeranz a good bit, so I am somewhat cool on this offense, but the dangerous bats at the top are in play. Jose Altuve is always a strong option against a lefty.

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Alex Bregman, Evan Gattis, Carlos Correa

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Boston has clinched a playoff spot but has not yet clinched the AL East. They are two ahead of the Yankees with two to play and should go all out to win here.

With Boston still needing a win, the offense has potential here. McCullers is never a pitcher that I pick on, but I will make an exception given the short nature of this early slate combined with the fact that he is unlikely to pitch deep into the game. Righties have posted better numbers against McCullers this year and get the preference from me.

Elite Plays – Mookie Betts, Hanley Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Xander Bogaerts, Dustin Pedroia, Mitch Moreland, Andrew Benintendi, Christian Vazquez

Stackability – YELLOW

Toronto at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Toronto								NY Yankees
			Marcus Stroman							Jaime Garcia
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.289	0.312	30.4%	8.7%	18.4%	66.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.241	25.7%	4.1%	26.0%	59.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.324	0.308	31.8%	6.4%	21.1%	58.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.340	31.8%	11.0%	17.3%	53.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Marcus Stroman
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,900	Salary:		$9,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		5 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.62	4.37	19.4%	6.3%	60.1%	31.8%	18.3%
	2017	32	3.83	3.06	19.8%	7.5%	62.4%	31.1%	20.8%
	L30	5	3.51	2.73	21.1%	9.2%	71.1%	34.2%	19.7%

By now, you know the drill with Stroman. He’s a fine real life pitcher who often does a good job at preventing runs from scoring, but he doesn’t have a ton of fantasy upside. His ERA sits near 3.00, but his strikeout rate is under 20% for the year. He gets by with a massive 60%+ ground ball rate, which helps him limit damage even when he lacks his best stuff. However, this is a tough road game against a Yankees team that is good against RHP and will be playing to win, so I have to pass, though I could see taking a flier on him on DK where you need two starters from two games.

Quick Breakdown: I will pass on Stroman on the all day slates, but he’s worth a look on DraftKings for the two game turbo slate. There isn’t a ton of upside here, especially on the road against the Yankees.

Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	30	3.93	4.67	20.2%	7.7%	56.7%	31.1%	18.6%
	2017	27	4.54	4.41	19.2%	9.5%	54.8%	30.5%	20.7%
	L30	4	3.32	3.57	28.2%	9.0%	61.2%	30.6%	14.3%

Garcia is basically a slightly less talented, left-handed version of Stroman. He has an ERA and SIERA in the mid-fours to go along with a 54% ground ball rate and 19% strikeout rate. Again, he’s a left-handed, not quite as good version of Marcus Stroman. The Blue Jays lineup doesn’t pack a ton of punch outside of about two batters, and I could see using Garcia as a cheap pitcher on a short slate.

Quick Breakdown: Given the lack of pitching on this two game very early slate, you can consider Garcia as a fine salary saving pitching option. Just don’t expect a world of upside.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – They will be hanging out at the mall.

Toronto is simply playing out the string at this point. Don’t go nuts against Garcia, but he has been a bit weaker against RHBs this year. His ground ball rate dips by 6% against righties, so maybe there is some hope in a RH power bat like Josh Donaldson. I wouldn’t go for the full stack here, though, as Garcia doesn’t get blown up often.

Elite Plays – Josh Donaldson, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Teoscar Hernandez, Jose Bautista

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Clinched playoff berth; 2 games behind Boston for first place in AL East

The Yankees carry plenty of power sticks, Aaron Judge is raking again, and they have torn the cover off the baseball lately. They lead the league in ISO and wOBA in the month of September. Stroman is not a pitcher I pick on often, but we need some bats on the two game slate, and the Yankees bring the upside to the table. Stroman has shown reverse splits this year, so give RHBs the top preference.

Elite Plays – Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Starlin Castro, Chase Headley

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 4:05 PM ET

Cincinnati								Chicago Cubs
			Jackson Stephens							Jon Lester
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-195
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.311	36.0%	8.8%	14.7%	45.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.245	0.235	25.2%	3.1%	33.5%	54.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.260	0.348	25.7%	6.1%	22.5%	28.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.345	0.320	28.9%	9.5%	20.3%	44.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jackson Stephens
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,100	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		19 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2017	3	4.60	3.86	19.3%	7.2%	35.6%	30.0%	18.3%
	L30	2	5.44	3.38	12.9%	8.1%	40.4%	27.1%	20.8%

We now begin the new four game “afternoon/early” slate, and it is nice that FanDuel and DraftKings have the same slate offerings today. I will paste the intro portion of this article here again, in case you glossed over the first two games:

Right off the bat, I will caution you to monitor how much you play this weekend. Teams with nothing to play for can certainly use these games as glorified exhibitions, subbing players out like it’s an early March spring training game. In lieu of the usual detailed batter breakdowns, I will offer thoughts on how I expect the team to approach the game. Please keep an eye on lineups as they come out, as you will see some wild ones. There are few teams that have anything to play for at the moment, and this is not going to be an easy slate to break down.

Jackson Stephens is a young pitcher who didn’t have great numbers in the minor leagues this year. He actually made his first major league start against these same Cubs, and he did okay in that outing. Still, he doesn’t bring a lot of upside to the table, and the Cubs have rested some of their starters the last two days. I expect them to throw their full lineup out there today in a final tune-up before the postseason hits.

Quick Breakdown: Stephens can safely be avoided in all formats.

Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		7 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	32	3.61	2.44	24.8%	6.5%	46.9%	26.8%	18.9%
	2017	31	4.13	4.46	23.2%	8.1%	46.6%	28.2%	21.3%
	L30	5	5.59	4.94	14.6%	11.4%	44.3%	34.4%	23.3%

A) The Cubs have wrapped up the #3 seed in the NL playoffs.
B) The Cubs have limited their last two starters to 82 and 81 pitches.
C) Jon Lester has a 4.94 ERA and has allowed six home runs in five September starts.

Quick Breakdown: A + B + C = Don’t pay the premium for a struggling pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Playing MLB The Show on Playstation

Even though Lester has been struggling of late, it’s hard to get on board with a ton of hitters against him. It is going to be chilly at Wrigley today with a cross wind or wind blowing in. That’s not great hitting weather. LHBs have a .245 wOBA against Lester this year, so you can avoid all of them. RHBs have posted a .345 mark, so they are certainly in play. Billy Hamilton has given Lester fits, as the fact that Lester can’t hold runners is likely a major distraction when Hamilton is at the dish. It’s in Lester’s head. Hamilton has two home runs and six steals against Lester in just 18 career plate appearances. Hamilton has sneaky GPP upside today.

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Billy Hamilton (cash), Adam Duvall, Patrick Kivlehan

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Clinched #3 seed in NL playoffs.

The Cubs have been rolling out the reserves over the last few days. I expect them to play their starters today, but make sure you verify the lineup before finalizing your DFS rosters. Stephens has a mediocre profile across the board, but he was particularly poor against LHBs in the minors. The wind and potential watered-down lineup has me concerned a bit, so that keeps the Cubs out of “green” status. Anthony Rizzo is a great play if he is in the lineup today given Stephens’ profile against lefties.

Elite Plays – Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ (MONITOR LINEUP)

Secondary Plays – Kris Bryant, Kyle Schwarber, potential value pieces (MONITOR LINEUP)

Stackability – YELLOW

San Diego at San Francisco – 4:05 PM ET

San Diego								San Francisco
			Jhoulys Chacin							Matt Cain
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			SF -100							8.5
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.348	33.5%	12.1%	16.0%	45.2%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.368	0.381	33.7%	11.4%	13.0%	42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.267	0.264	23.1%	6.9%	23.6%	52.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.361	0.343	31.6%	6.6%	12.8%	41.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jhoulys Chacin
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	22	4.38	4.81	18.8%	8.7%	48.4%	31.6%	19.0%
	2017	31	4.66	3.98	19.9%	9.5%	49.0%	28.3%	20.0%
	L30	4	3.98	3.63	25.0%	7.6%	39.0%	25.0%	18.3%

There might be three people watching this game. San Diego and San Francisco meet in a pointless game between two awful teams, and I don’t really have a lot of interest anywhere. Chacin does a reasonable job of preventing runs and will be pitching in a good park, but he doesn’t have any upside. In addition, despite how awful the Giants’ offense is, they actually have the eighth lowest team strikeout rate against RHP this year. Meh.

Quick Breakdown: I can’t get on board with a low upside pitcher, even in a decent matchup. The Giants don’t strike out a ton, which limits Chacin’s ceiling even more.

Matt Cain
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		16 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	17	4.67	5.64	18.1%	8.1%	37.3%	31.4%	21.6%
	2017	22	5.51	5.66	12.9%	8.7%	42.1%	32.5%	16.1%
	L30	1	5.90	3.60	9.1%	0.0%	25.0%	50.0%	15.0%

The only reason to even consider Cain today is because he is making his final major league start, and he is facing the Padres. He has been much better at home this year in the spacious confines of AT&T Park, but there isn’t a whole lot of upside to be had. Cain has a 5.66 ERA, a 5.51 SIERA, and a meager 13% strikeout rate this season. The numbers are ugly, so be aware that you are making this play at your own risk.

Quick Breakdown: Thanks to the narrative and the matchup, you are only borderline crazy instead of totally crazy if you roster Cain today.

Batter Grind Down

San Diego

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – LOL

Remember the mantra. I swore off this offense six weeks ago, and it hasn’t really cost me yet. #NeverPadres

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

San Francisco

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Nope.

The Giants are a low upside offense, and there isn’t a whole lot to love here even against the worst of pitchers. If you go anywhere here, Jhoulys Chacin has allowed a .342 wOBA to LHBs this year, and Chacin’s hard contact rate rises by about 10%, so lefties do get the priority here.

Elite Plays – Denard Span

Secondary Plays – Jarrett Parker, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey, Joe Panik

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Milwaukee at St. Louis – 4:15 PM ET

Milwaukee								St. Louis
			Junior Guerra							Luke Weaver
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TBD
Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.348	0.350	30.0%	13.8%	19.6%	29.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.238	0.234	16.4%	5.3%	29.5%	51.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.355	0.367	36.8%	13.3%	21.2%	37.1%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.318	0.294	30.5%	6.2%	30.8%	51.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Junior Guerra
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$7,700	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	20	4.42	2.81	20.3%	8.7%	45.3%	33.8%	19.9%
	2017	13	5.32	4.90	20.5%	13.5%	33.7%	33.7%	18.9%
	L30	0	1.44	4.26	50.0%	8.3%	40.0%	30.0%	10.0%

This is a bullpen game for the Brewers in a must-win contest. Guerra hasn’t pitched more than one inning in a game since the end of July, so there is no reason to consider him for DFS purposes today.

Quick Breakdown: Guerra can safely be avoided in all formats.

Luke Weaver
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,400	Salary:		$9,600	Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30	Salary Rank:		of 30
	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
	2016	8	3.55	5.70	27.0%	7.2%	30.7%	32.4%	17.6%
	2017	9	3.00	3.23	30.2%	5.8%	51.8%	24.5%	18.2%
	L30	6	2.49	3.90	31.8%	3.8%	56.5%	22.4%	17.7%

Perhaps the Cardinals could be in line for a playoff spot if they would have used Luke Weaver in their starting rotation all year. He has been absolutely phenomenal in the second half, save for a bad start against the Cubs his last time out. He owns a 3.23 ERA, 3.00 SIERA, 6% walk rate, and 30% strikeout rate for the season. The upside is also enhanced against a high strikeout Brewers lineup. Fire him up as the top option on the afternoon slate.

Quick Breakdown: Even though the Brewers are still in the playoff race, I am comfortable targeting Weaver as the top pitching option on the afternoon slate. His numbers have been fantastic.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – Two games behind the Rockies for the final NL Wild Card spot with two to play.

Even though the Brewers still have something to play for, I’m not going to target hitters against Luke Weaver. Weaver has shown reverse splits this year, so I suppose you could play that card if you want, but he still has a 50%+ ground ball rate against hitters from both sides of the plate.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Playoff scenarios – They were eliminated from playoff contention on Thursday.

The Cardinals trotted the “B” lineup out there last night after being eliminated on Thursday, but I expect them to play their starters, at least for today’s game. They should go all out to win behind Luke Weaver, and a win would officially eliminate the Brewers. It’s hard to bank on splits or matchups in a bullpen game, and you will see Milwaukee’s best bullpen arms today. It’s a stack or fade situation, really. I can see either argument in a GPP, while you can certainly consider a Cardinals hitter or two in cash games.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter, Tommy Pham

Secondary Plays – Yadier Molina, Dexter Fowler, Jose Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW

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