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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, August 6th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-08-07 01:24:09

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

St. Louis Cincinnati
stlouismlb Adam Wainwright cincinnatimlb Homer Bailey
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
STL-115 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.336 32.7% 8.1% 18.6% 42.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.381 0.373 36.5% 9.4% 14.4% 47.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.318 0.316 29.1% 6.2% 19.8% 47.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.389 0.345 20.5% 6.2% 18.6% 46.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Adam Wainwright
adam-wainwright-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $7,600 Salary: $15,200
Salary Rank: 11 of 30 Salary Rank: 14 of 30 Salary Rank: 12 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.31 4.62 19.0% 7.0% 43.8% 31.2% 19.1%
2017 20 4.31 4.89 19.6% 7.2% 48.0% 30.0% 21.7%
L30 3 4.17 2.25 16.3% 2.5% 48.4% 28.1% 28.1%

Good morning, Grinders! We have a fun Sunday slate on tap which features about two or three games that could turn into pitchers’ duels, and the rest of the slate looks very juicy for offense. It should be a relatively high scoring day. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have opted for an 11 game main slate today, so we should see some healthy diversity in roster construction. As for this game, Adam Wainwright is the true definition of a crafty veteran at this point in his career. The strikeout upside just isn’t there anymore, and he has a very average 4.30 SIERA on the year, making him a less interesting fantasy option. In addition, he is making his first start back from the disabled list with a back injury.

Quick Breakdown: Although Wainwright generally finds ways to be competitive, I want no part of a 35 year old pitcher who is making his first start since suffering a back injury.

Homer Bailey
homer-bailey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,800 Salary: $4,400 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 28 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 6 3.55 6.65 24.3% 6.3% 45.2% 30.7% 16.0%
2017 8 5.32 7.32 12.2% 8.5% 47.6% 26.7% 17.1%
L30 5 5.36 5.34 12.1% 8.3% 46.0% 25.5% 18.6%

The sites are trying to bait you with a mega cheap price on Homer Bailey, and I just might be interested because of that. The Cardinals rank dead last in the league in ISO over the last two weeks, and Jedd Gyorko said that they “just aren’t very good” yesterday. Homer Bailey hasn’t been very good this year, either, with a 12.2% strikeout rate and fairly ugly metrics across the board. However, the matchup and cheap price tag mean we don’t need a ton of production if we want to roster him. There’s a ton of risk here, so don’t go buck wild with this, as Bailey’s overall profile doesn’t look pretty.

Quick Breakdown: It’s not for the faint of heart, but Bailey might be worth a GPP look as a super cheap pitching option today. It’s much more viable in multi-pitcher formats (i.e. not on FanDuel).

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Matt Carpenter LEFT 0.368 0.388 0.215 43.6% 15.9% 18.3% 24.4% 1B $3,300 1B $3,900 1B $7,600
2 Tommy Pham RIGHT 0.385 0.357 0.178 36.4% 10.6% 24.9% 50.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
3 Paul DeJong RIGHT 0.334 0.329 0.248 39.3% 1.8% 32.0% 32.1% SS $2,800 2B/SS $4,600 3B $9,000
4 Jedd Gyorko RIGHT 0.334 0.323 0.179 29.7% 10.2% 23.9% 40.6% 3B $2,700 3B $3,300 3B $6,400
5 Yadier Molina RIGHT 0.295 0.307 0.120 33.3% 4.5% 16.2% 45.2% C $3,100 C $4,700 C $9,200
6 Stephen Piscotty RIGHT 0.322 0.353 0.144 28.0% 12.7% 20.5% 45.6% OF $2,600 OF $2,900 RF $5,700
7 Kolten Wong LEFT 0.337 0.310 0.138 23.8% 8.6% 14.1% 49.0% 2B $2,500 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
8 Randal Grichuk RIGHT 0.310 0.308 0.225 41.7% 5.4% 31.8% 36.7% OF $2,600 OF $3,400 LF $6,800
9 Adam Wainwright RIGHT 0.292 0.217 0.258 31.8% 0.0% 35.3% 44.4% P $7,800 P $7,600 P $15,200

Homer Bailey has actually done a decent job of limiting hard contact this year, but he has had awful luck in the BABIP department. RHBs have a ridiculous .431 BABIP against him despite a 24% hard contact rate, and that is just awful luck. Lefties make a little more hard contact, which I suppose makes Matt Carpenter interesting. The Cardinals have a relatively high team total here, but who do you really get excited about targeting on this offense right now? It’s not pretty.

Elite Plays – Matt Carpenter

Secondary Plays – Paul DeJong, Jedd Gyorko

Stackability – YELLOW

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.302 0.266 0.094 17.5% 8.8% 20.5% 45.2% OF $3,400 OF $4,700 CF $9,300
2 Jesse Winker LEFT 0.413 0.416 0.304 45.0% 20.7% 10.3% 55.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 LF $6,600
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.416 0.421 0.254 36.4% 17.0% 11.1% 37.6% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.330 0.292 0.238 33.9% 4.8% 27.3% 30.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
5 Scooter Gennett LEFT 0.419 0.353 0.297 41.3% 6.3% 21.9% 41.0% 2B $2,600 2B/OF $4,200 2B $8,000
6 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.349 0.338 0.199 30.0% 11.6% 23.2% 43.0% 3B $2,800 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.264 0.275 0.076 19.0% 2.4% 13.8% 42.0% SS $2,400 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,400
8 Tucker Barnhart SWITCH 0.319 0.327 0.120 34.3% 9.2% 14.3% 42.5% C $2,000 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Homer Bailey RIGHT 0.000 0.086 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 100.0% P $5,800 P $4,400 P $8,800

Wainwright has fairly even splits across the board, but he is allowing a lot more hard contact to left-handers this year. In addition, I don’t mind looking at BvP here, since Wainwright has faced the Reds a ton throughout his career. Joey Votto has a .388 career wOBA against Wainwright in over 50 plate appearances, but that includes just two home runs. I would give a slight edge to the lefties here, but Wainwright isn’t the best pitcher to pick on today, even though I have no interest in using him as a pitching option.

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jesse Winker, Scooter Gennett

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Milwaukee at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Milwaukee Tampa Bay
milwaukeemlb Jimmy Nelson tampabaymlb Chris Archer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -137 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.326 0.323 37.1% 10.9% 22.6% 46.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.310 0.300 36.7% 8.7% 28.5% 44.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.327 0.292 27.9% 6.7% 20.2% 52.7% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.296 0.296 33.9% 6.8% 28.0% 45.1%

Pitcher Grind Down

Jimmy Nelson
jimmy-nelson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,900 Salary: $8,600 Salary: $16,800
Salary Rank: 6 of 30 Salary Rank: 7 of 30 Salary Rank: 6 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.92 4.62 17.4% 10.7% 49.4% 32.6% 21.3%
2017 22 3.35 3.37 27.2% 5.8% 50.0% 31.2% 21.8%
L30 5 2.91 3.94 31.1% 5.9% 52.7% 30.7% 21.3%

This is one of the few games that could easily turn into a pitchers’ duel, as Jimmy Nelson takes the hill for the Brewers against the Rays. Nelson is having an incredible season that is not getting enough attention, but this game has the lowest projected total on the board today at 7 1/2 runs. Nelson owns a very solid 3.37 ERA and 3.34 SIERA this year, and he is striking out more than ten batters per nine innings. He had struggled with his command a bit in previous seasons, but he has made incredible strides in that department in 2017. He has immense upside against a Rays team that strikes out the third most in the league against right-handed pitching. Yes, please!

Quick Breakdown: Nelson is having a breakout season and is a great pitching option, especially for tournaments. A matchup against the Rays enhances his already high strikeout upside.

Chris Archer
chris-archer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $11,300 Salary: $21,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30 Salary Rank: 1 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 3.50 4.02 27.4% 7.9% 47.8% 32.8% 18.0%
2017 23 3.46 3.89 29.3% 7.4% 40.9% 38.6% 15.4%
L30 5 3.24 3.69 31.9% 7.4% 33.3% 39.0% 13.4%

There’s not much question as to who the top pitcher is on today’s slate. It’s Chris Archer. He’s pitching at home against the team that strikes out more than any other squad in the league against RHP, and Archer already brings immense strikeout upside to the table. He struggled a bit in his last start, but we can forgive any pitcher for a poor outing on the road against the Astros. Archer has had some issues with hard contact this year, but he has a very respectable 3.45 SIERA to go along with an elite 29% strikeout rate and 13% swinging strike rate. As with yesterday, this isn’t a great overall slate for pitching, and Archer is the clear choice as the top dog today.

Quick Breakdown: Archer is the top pitching option on the slate for all game formats. Fire him up with confidence against a Brewers team that strikes out a ton.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Eric Thames LEFT 0.396 0.351 0.293 43.4% 15.9% 26.9% 39.5% 1B $3,100 1B/OF $3,600 1B $7,200
2 Domingo Santana RIGHT 0.362 0.326 0.190 34.1% 11.6% 29.7% 48.6% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,600
3 Ryan Braun RIGHT 0.359 0.330 0.264 39.6% 8.0% 22.8% 45.9% OF $3,700 OF $3,800 LF $7,500
4 Travis Shaw LEFT 0.401 0.367 0.280 39.5% 10.6% 21.3% 45.7% 3B $3,200 3B $3,400 3B $6,800
5 Jesus Aguilar RIGHT 0.354 0.322 0.265 38.5% 6.2% 28.8% 41.8% 1B $2,400 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
6 Eric Sogard LEFT 0.369 0.339 0.118 25.0% 14.5% 12.5% 40.6% 2B $2,200 2B/SS $2,600 2B $5,100
7 Keon Broxton RIGHT 0.306 0.286 0.196 34.6% 8.2% 38.1% 44.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,800 CF $5,400
8 Jett Bandy RIGHT 0.258 0.271 0.119 33.3% 7.4% 28.2% 40.9% C $2,000 C $2,300 C $4,400
9 Orlando Arcia RIGHT 0.308 0.270 0.132 27.5% 5.0% 17.8% 52.4% SS $2,600 SS $3,200 SS $6,400

Even though he has had issues allowing hard contact at times this year, I am not going to take any hitters against Chris Archer on a 12 game slate. The Brewers have been too cold at the plate over the last month to mess with this.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Corey Dickerson LEFT 0.371 0.328 0.245 35.7% 6.8% 22.0% 38.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,600 LF $9,000
2 Lucas Duda LEFT 0.384 0.397 0.305 43.1% 14.5% 22.9% 26.8% 1B $3,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,600
3 Evan Longoria RIGHT 0.343 0.316 0.195 32.5% 4.8% 14.5% 43.8% 3B $3,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.378 0.391 0.313 42.6% 15.5% 24.3% 31.6% 1B $3,400 1B $4,800 1B $9,300
5 Steve Souza RIGHT 0.399 0.386 0.313 39.9% 12.7% 29.3% 39.8% OF $4,000 OF $4,800 RF $9,200
6 Brad Miller LEFT 0.294 0.315 0.100 32.4% 20.8% 26.0% 52.0% 2B $2,600 2B $2,700 2B $5,400
7 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.192 0.298 0.125 39.0% 3.3% 26.2% 48.8% C $2,300 C $2,800 C $5,400
8 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.330 0.262 0.110 21.1% 11.0% 19.5% 52.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,300 CF $6,600
9 Adeiny Hechavarria RIGHT 0.243 0.269 0.038 26.4% 2.2% 19.9% 51.9% SS $2,100 SS $2,500 SS $4,800

I am not going to make a habit out of rostering hitters against Jimmy Nelson. He’s taken his pitching to the next level this year, and there’s no reason to target bats from the game with the lowest total on the board. If you do go anywhere, left-handed power is one of the only weaknesses that Nelson has.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

NY Yankees at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

NY Yankees Cleveland
nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino clevelandmlb Carlos Carrasco
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CLE-121 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.313 30.0% 6.5% 24.3% 46.7% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.333 0.324 37.5% 8.3% 24.8% 42.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.305 0.285 28.6% 7.5% 26.7% 51.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.280 31.9% 4.4% 26.8% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,600 Salary: $9,900 Salary: $19,200
Salary Rank: 2 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30 Salary Rank: 3 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 11 4.06 5.83 21.2% 8.0% 45.1% 29.4% 20.6%
2017 21 3.31 2.98 28.2% 6.5% 51.5% 29.2% 19.2%
L30 5 3.47 1.36 28.7% 7.4% 43.5% 25.9% 17.7%

I got a chance to check out some of last night’s Yankees/Indians game, and it was fun to watch the pitching performances of Danny Salazar and the impressive rookie Jordan Montgomery. I was also happy that I hit that game spot on in yesterday’s Grind Down, as that was probably my best call of the day. We could see a similar performance today, as this is also one of the games that features some top pitching options. Luis Severino takes the hill for the Yankees, and he has quietly maintained a 28% strikeout rate and 12% swinging strike rate of his own this year. Both those numbers are sizable increases from his marks a year ago. He does a good job of limiting hard contact, and his ground ball rate is up over 50% this year. You will get him at low ownership against a potent Cleveland offense, and that has value in GPPs

Quick Breakdown: Even in a difficult matchup, Severino is worth a look today. He’s more viable in GPP formats, though he is clearly behind both Archer and Nelson for me.

Carlos Carrasco
carlos-carrasco-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,100 Salary: $9,700 Salary: $18,800
Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30 Salary Rank: 4 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 25 3.44 3.32 25.0% 5.7% 48.5% 36.4% 16.0%
2017 21 3.60 3.89 26.9% 6.7% 43.3% 31.8% 17.1%
L30 5 3.53 5.27 28.0% 6.8% 39.2% 40.0% 10.7%

When it comes to the elite pitchers in the game, I always seem to discount Carlos Carrasco. If you are a premium subscriber for DraftKings, you have probably picked up on this in my pitching primers throughout the year, where I seemingly always list him as a fade. This isn’t intentional, but I have noticed it myself, which means a lot of readers certainly have. Vegas respects him today, as he is a home favorite over Severino, while the Yankees own one of the lowest implied team totals on the board. His 27% strikeout rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate put him right there with the top pitchers on this slate, and his ERA, SIERA, and xFIP are all hovering in the mid-threes. He’s a fine pitcher, but he always seems to take a back seat to other options. I’m fine with using him today despite the difficult matchup.

Quick Breakdown: Like Severino, there is appeal here despite a tough matchup. We could very well see another 3-2 type game here today, and it would be a fun watch if these guys can put on a show just like Montgomery and Salazar did on Saturday.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.365 0.349 0.221 35.1% 12.0% 18.8% 40.5% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 LF $8,800
2 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.320 0.354 0.247 46.3% 5.1% 25.6% 38.9% OF $2,700 OF $4,500 CF $8,700
3 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.432 0.433 0.328 45.7% 14.9% 31.5% 37.5% OF $4,400 OF $4,900 RF $9,600
4 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.361 0.359 0.223 36.5% 7.2% 23.6% 44.3% C $3,300 C $4,600 C $8,800
5 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.365 0.279 0.238 25.9% 3.9% 13.6% 40.1% SS $3,300 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
6 Jacoby Ellsbury LEFT 0.335 0.321 0.132 24.2% 10.3% 14.5% 48.3% OF $2,900 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
7 Chase Headley SWITCH 0.353 0.338 0.133 32.2% 12.7% 24.1% 44.9% 1B $2,900 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
8 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.307 0.340 0.172 28.5% 13.1% 22.2% 39.2% 3B $3,400 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
9 Ronald Torreyes RIGHT 0.280 0.245 0.098 19.0% 2.2% 12.7% 50.3% 2B $2,300 3B/SS $3,300 SS $6,600

The Yankees hitters are still super expensive on DraftKings, which takes them totally out of the conversation there. I don’t mind a super cheap Clint Frazier on FanDuel, while you can also consider Gary Sanchez at a thin catcher position. That’s where it ends. There is no need to force hitters into your lineups against Carrasco.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Clint Frazier (FD) / Gary Sanchez (FD)

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.301 0.301 0.173 31.3% 6.8% 18.8% 32.3% 2B $2,800 2B $4,200 2B $8,100
2 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.310 0.325 0.196 30.3% 7.5% 13.4% 39.6% SS $3,600 SS $4,600 SS $8,800
3 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.360 0.371 0.171 40.2% 10.5% 14.2% 48.6% OF $3,400 OF $3,900 LF $7,800
4 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.397 0.356 0.253 34.1% 8.0% 10.5% 37.7% 3B $3,500 2B/3B $4,800 IF/OF $9,200
5 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.351 0.364 0.234 37.8% 12.5% 22.0% 35.2% 1B $3,400 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
6 Carlos Santana SWITCH 0.354 0.380 0.213 36.5% 13.7% 19.9% 33.1% 1B $3,200 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
7 Brandon Guyer RIGHT 0.342 0.302 0.036 19.1% 8.6% 22.9% 47.4% OF $2,400 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
8 Yan Gomes RIGHT 0.266 0.276 0.081 26.1% 9.8% 25.0% 40.0% C $2,200 C $3,000 C $6,000
9 Bradley Zimmer LEFT 0.351 0.335 0.209 37.7% 9.8% 27.9% 46.3% OF $2,900 OF $4,400 CF $8,400

There is no reason to overpay for the Cleveland hitters today against Severino. I promise, we have better offensive matchups on the horizon. Francisco Lindor is worth a mention for his upside and his availability at a thin shortstop position, but that’s about it.

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Lindor

Stackability – ORANGE / RED

Chicago White Sox at Boston – 1:35 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Boston
whitesoxmlb Mike Pelfrey bostonmlb Doug Fister
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-210 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.387 0.390 35.3% 10.5% 12.5% 42.9% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.404 0.374 37.9% 9.7% 13.3% 38.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.328 26.5% 8.7% 11.7% 58.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.269 0.291 25.2% 7.6% 17.3% 52.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Pelfrey
mike-pelfrey-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,000 Salary: $4,200 Salary: $8,400
Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 29 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 22 5.25 5.07 10.4% 8.5% 52.2% 31.2% 20.1%
2017 18 5.53 5.04 14.5% 11.2% 49.3% 30.3% 21.6%
L30 5 6.02 7.50 14.4% 14.4% 51.3% 37.2% 12.8%

The options on the hitting side have been very thin so far, but we are about to get into a stretch of games that features zilch on the pitching side and a ton of goodness on the hitting side. Mike Pelfrey is pitching today! You know what that means: don’t play Mike Pelfrey. His strikeout rate of 14.5% isn’t very good, and his walk rate of over 11% is very bad. It’s hard to succeed with those kinds of numbers, and you certainly can’t consider him a viable option pitching against the Red Sox in Fenway.

Quick Breakdown: If you are considering using Pelfrey as your pitcher on this slate, just save your money and take the day off.

Doug Fister
doug-fister-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 23 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 4.97 4.64 14.8% 8.0% 45.3% 31.5% 19.7%
2017 5 5.41 5.18 17.3% 12.7% 43.0% 35.0% 18.5%
L30 3 5.70 5.32 14.7% 12.8% 43.7% 38.4% 16.4%

It’s very strange to say, but Doug Fister is essentially a clone of Mike Pelfrey at this point in his career. His strikeout rate is low, his walk rate has ballooned to almost 13%, and he has poor metrics across the board. Obviously, Fister draws the better matchup against a White Sox team that has given up on 2017 and is playing all their young guys at this point. However, there’s still risk with Fister, and the upside simply isn’t there.

Quick Breakdown: Despite a solid matchup and the fact that he is a large home favorite, Fister doesn’t have the upside to help your DFS rosters.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leury Garcia SWITCH 0.355 0.332 0.218 31.9% 4.9% 20.4% 50.4% OF $3,100 OF $4,900 CF $9,600
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.311 0.284 0.133 24.0% 6.7% 18.9% 45.9% 2B $2,200 2B $2,900 2B $5,600
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.339 0.350 0.213 38.7% 4.8% 17.0% 45.3% 1B $3,600 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
4 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.322 0.345 0.214 42.9% 21.6% 37.8% 50.0% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,800 2B $7,600
5 Nick Delmonico RIGHT 0.466 0.375 66.7% 0.0% 25.0% 50.0% N/A N/A
6 Tyler Saladino RIGHT 0.227 0.192 0.056 23.0% 7.6% 28.8% 45.1% 2B $2,100 2B/SS $3,100 2B $6,000
7 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.239 0.252 0.127 29.3% 2.8% 28.0% 52.1% SS $2,400 SS $3,200 SS $6,300
8 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.297 0.304 0.050 16.0% 10.3% 12.9% 44.1% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,200
9 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.259 0.251 0.116 36.9% 6.5% 30.8% 43.3% OF $2,000 OF $3,500 CF $6,900

Even though their offense pretty much stinks right now, I don’t mind using some White Sox hitters today. Doug Fister, as I mentioned above, is essentially a clone of Pelfrey at this point in his career. That means he can’t get left-handed hitters out. LHBs have posted a .429 wOBA and 40% hard contact rate against Fister this year, and he has walked as many LHBs as he has struck out this year. That’s not good. You will likely see five left-handers in the White Sox lineup today, and most of them come very cheap in DFS. I like the odds when you can get a low owned cheap stack against a bad pitcher, because that enhances your upside while also allowing you to spend up for your pitching selections.

Elite Plays – Yoan Moncada

Secondary Plays – Leury Garcia, Yolmer Sanchez, Nick Delmonico

Stackability – YELLOW

Boston

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.339 0.328 0.198 36.6% 9.5% 10.8% 41.0% OF $4,200 OF $5,300 RF $10,400
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.338 0.337 0.168 37.7% 10.5% 16.1% 37.7% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 LF $8,400
3 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.345 0.275 0.136 26.1% 3.2% 9.3% 53.8% 2B $4,100 3B/OF $5,100 3B $9,900
4 Hanley Ramirez RIGHT 0.329 0.355 0.174 34.7% 8.4% 18.4% 43.0% 1B $3,400 1B $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
5 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.543 0.483 0.417 40.9% 14.3% 7.1% 40.9% 3B $3,600 3B $4,400 3B $8,400
6 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.321 0.268 0.137 31.4% 7.2% 18.6% 47.5% SS $2,900 SS $3,600 SS $7,200
7 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.329 0.382 0.197 42.2% 10.8% 23.3% 38.3% 1B $3,300 1B $4,900 1B $9,600
8 Christian Vazquez RIGHT 0.310 0.261 0.094 26.2% 4.2% 19.3% 47.6% C $2,600 C $4,700 C $9,200
9 Jackie Bradley Jr. LEFT 0.307 0.329 0.165 39.4% 9.3% 23.8% 39.6% OF $2,500 OF $3,400 CF $6,800

The good news about targeting offense against Mike Pelfrey is that we know who to target against him. Pelfrey actually has done a very good job of limiting damage this year thanks to a high ground ball rate and a low hard hit rate against right-handed hitters. Those skills, however, absolutely erode against left-handed hitters. The Pelf has allowed a 34% hard hit rate against lefties this year, and his ground ball rate dips to under 40% (compared to 58% against RHBs). Any and all Boston lefties are in play here, and a full stack is certainly worth a peek. Boston has the highest team total on the board, even higher than either team in Coors Field.

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland, Brock Holt for value if he starts again

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr.

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Miami Atlanta
miamimlb Jose Urena atlantamlb Lucas Sims
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
ATL-120 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.328 0.352 31.7% 7.9% 11.3% 38.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.337
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.315 0.322 33.1% 8.6% 20.9% 49.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.357

Pitcher Grind Down

Jose Urena
jose-urena-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 20 of 30 Salary Rank: 19 of 30 Salary Rank: 17 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 12 4.66 6.13 15.6% 7.8% 47.7% 32.5% 21.4%
2017 17 5.07 3.82 16.5% 8.7% 40.4% 32.2% 18.7%
L30 5 5.01 5.00 18.4% 9.7% 40.8% 35.4% 15.2%

Jose Urena may have a decent ERA on the surface, but he has been extremely lucky to allow just a .242 opposing BABIP so far this season. He allows a fair amount of hard contact and isn’t going to blow away any hitters. Don’t be fooled by that ERA; Urena is a low upside fantasy option. It’s telling that we have a 9 1/2 total in this game, especially since the Braves are the favored team.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Urena in all formats.

Lucas Sims
-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,000 Salary: $4,500 Salary: $8,800
Salary Rank: 25 of 30 Salary Rank: 27 of 30 Salary Rank: 25 of 30
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%

Lucas Sims held up well in his first major league start, holding a potent Dodgers offense to three runs over six innings. He did not walk a single batter in that contest, and he has flashed upside with high strikeout rates throughout his minor league career. It’s not super exciting to target a pitcher against a Marlins offense that has been very lively over the past month, but Sims comes very cheap at $6,000 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings.

Quick Breakdown: If you want to take a risk/reward approach, I don’t hate the idea of using Sims as a cheap pitcher. He clearly has upside with his high strikeout rate in the minors, and he’s certainly more viable than some of the other cheap pitchers that are going today.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.324 0.270 0.078 20.3% 5.4% 13.7% 56.0% 2B $3,600 2B $4,900 2B $9,600
2 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.387 0.377 0.297 37.6% 10.6% 25.6% 41.7% OF $4,700 OF $5,300 RF $10,200
3 Christian Yelich LEFT 0.352 0.365 0.159 38.5% 12.1% 18.6% 56.3% OF $3,400 OF $4,300 CF $8,400
4 Marcell Ozuna RIGHT 0.401 0.380 0.284 44.7% 8.2% 22.9% 44.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,900 LF $9,600
5 J.T. Realmuto RIGHT 0.340 0.334 0.152 31.7% 6.2% 16.6% 51.1% C $2,800 C $3,700 C $7,200
6 Tyler Moore RIGHT 0.343 0.282 0.273 32.7% 3.6% 29.8% 30.9% 1B $2,100 1B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
7 Derek Dietrich LEFT 0.282 0.287 0.161 32.0% 5.3% 18.9% 36.6% 3B $3,100 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Miguel Rojas RIGHT 0.346 0.307 0.040 15.9% 10.5% 9.3% 50.0% SS $2,200 3B/SS $2,800 2B $5,400
9 Jose Urena RIGHT 0.105 0.141 0.050 17.7% 0.0% 32.0% 33.3% P $6,400 P $6,000 P $12,000

I would expect Sims to be a traditional splits right-hander, but we simply don’t have much data on him since he has only made one major league start. He only allowed one hit to a left-handed batter in his first start, but that hit was a home run. I prefer targeting the bats from the other side in this game, but it would be no surprise if the Marlins gave Sims some problems. Christian Yelich had a red hot July where he hit .314, and he has six home runs since July 1st, so he is my favorite option here.

Elite Plays – Christian Yelich

Secondary Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.315 0.280 0.098 24.8% 6.8% 14.8% 41.6% OF $2,600 OF $3,500 CF $6,800
2 Brandon Phillips RIGHT 0.327 0.312 0.148 26.2% 3.8% 11.7% 49.2% 2B $2,800 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.455 0.443 0.341 36.0% 15.2% 15.2% 35.3% 1B $3,700 1B/3B $5,000 1B $9,600
4 Matt Adams LEFT 0.374 0.369 0.259 42.9% 7.1% 23.9% 35.0% OF $2,700 1B $4,000 1B $7,800
5 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.341 0.346 0.119 35.7% 11.5% 18.1% 46.5% OF $3,200 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
6 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.371 0.343 0.175 41.2% 6.9% 23.4% 39.2% C $2,700 C $3,900 C $7,800
7 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.173 0.222 0.000 0.0% 25.0% 37.5% 66.7% 2B $2,300 2B/SS $2,300 2B $4,500
8 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.285 0.270 0.115 24.7% 5.3% 20.6% 49.0% SS $2,700 3B $3,900 SS $7,800
9 Lucas Sims RIGHT 0.000 P $6,000 P $4,500 P $8,800

I really like the Braves as a sneaky team stack today. Urena is not a pitcher we need to fear, and the Braves have a team total that is approaching five runs. Urena allows a 32% hard contact rate to both left-handed and right-handed hitters this year, and his ground ball rate evaporates against lefties. Don’t shy away from taking some Braves today.

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Brandon Phillips

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

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About the Author

stlcardinals84
Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84)

Justin Van Zuiden (aka stlcardinals84) is a longtime RotoGrinders contributor and show host. He’s appeared in numerous Live Finals, has logged countless 6-figure wins in a host of different sports (including 5 in PGA), and is a former DFS Writer of the Year Nominee by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. You can find Justin’s ‘Covering The Bases’ series on weekends during the MLB season. He is also a main contributor of sports betting picks at our sister site, ScoresAndOdds, and is a co-host on the RotoGrinders Game Night show on SiriusXM. Follow Justin on X – @stlcardinals84