MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 17th

by Andrew Cook (louiescards) Last Updated 2016-07-18 00:29:07

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Kansas City					Detroit
			Yordano Ventura					Michael Fulmer
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			DET -150					8.5
SP vs. Left	0.324	16	20.5%	9.9%	SP vs. Left	0.253	0	16.5%	10.5%
SP vs. Right	0.301	11	20.1%	7.7%	SP vs. Right	0.280	6	29.6%	6.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Yordano Ventura
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,700	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		23.5	FPPG:		10.8
					Pitcher Rating:		53.2	Pitcher Rank:		21
L30 Days	5	83.8	3.18	4.76	21.7%	4.4%	9.8%	57.8%	18.1%	32.1%
2016	17	90.8	4.94	5.15	16.6%	9.6%	7.8%	47.8%	33.4%	30.5%
2015	28	94.7	3.69	4.08	22.5%	8.4%	10.4%	52.2%	27.2%	29.8%

Yordano Ventura: For a short time, it looked like we might be getting a flash of what Ventura was able to provide in 2015 coming off of his suspension for the Machado incident, and then the Cardinals and Phillies brought us back to reality. Ventura has the ability to pitch very well; unfortunately for us, he is far too inconsistent and not someone you want to trust for daily fantasy.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Michael Fulmer
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,800	Salary:		$10,900
					FPPG:		38.5	FPPG:		20.3
					Pitcher Rating:		65.8	Pitcher Rank:		9
L30 Days	5	90.4	4.58	0.93	19.8%	9.5%	11.7%	44.2%	32.5%	34.2%
2016	13	94.6	4.04	2.11	23.2%	8.7%	11.5%	48.1%	31.6%	31.3%

Michael Fulmer: It has been a great start to Fulmer’s career so far, but these prices are hard to justify (especially on DK) on a day like today with several options I like more if I am paying up. His walk rate is a bit too high still and his strikeout numbers have dipped as the season has progressed, which is cause for concern from a fantasy production perspective. In general, I like Fulmer a lot, but in this spot we can do better.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Royals: This Royals team is one that I generally avoid rostering unless the pitching matchup is too good to pass up. With Fulmer on the mound, I think we can avoid going heavy on Kansas City bats, as they do not tend to provide a ton of fantasy upside. A lone exception to that has been Kendrys Morales, who has provided power and consistency to this point in the season and carries a reasonably low price tag across the industry.

Royals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.309 (22 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.133 (29 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.1% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.00 (25 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.96 (21 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.292	0.111	0.234	2B	$3,200	2B/OF	$2,600
2	Eric Hosmer	LEFT	0.372	0.176	0.281	1B	$3,500	1B	$2,900
3	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.356	0.223	0.504	1B	$3,400	1B/OF	$2,900
4	Salvador Perez	RIGHT	0.336	0.203	0.289	C	$3,300	C	$3,500
5	Alex Gordon	LEFT	0.330	0.168	0.260	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600
6	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.313	0.146	0.305	3B	$3,400	3B	$2,900
7	Brett Eibner	RIGHT	0.317	0.235	0.442	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,100
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.269	0.063	0.315	SS	$2,900	SS	$2,800
9	Jarrod Dyson	LEFT	0.296	0.112	0.310	OF	$2,300	OF	$2,900
	Team Averages	—	0.320	0.160	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales

Stackability – None

Detroit

Tigers: Overall, Detroit has been climbing the rankings against right-handed pitching and currently sits around tenth in both wOBA and ISO. With a Jekyll and Hyde type pitcher on the mound, this team has tournament upside. Their projected run total is on the higher today, but it might be just far enough down for them to be overlooked.

Tigers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.328 (9 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.170 (12 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.79 (10 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.54 (7 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Ian Kinsler	RIGHT	0.336	0.150	0.357	2B	$3,500	2B	$5,100
2	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.308	0.084	0.362	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,000
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.404	0.214	0.340	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,000
4	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.303	0.155	0.310	C	$3,700	1B	$3,900
5	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.320	0.176	0.459	3B	$3,300	3B	$5,000
6	Steven Moya	LEFT	0.322	0.240	0.223	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.247	0.072	0.251	C	$2,000	C	$2,900
8	Tyler Collins	LEFT	0.305	0.149		OF	$2,000	OF	$2,700
9	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.284	0.058	0.256	SS	$2,400	SS	$2,500
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.144	0.320	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler , Nick Castellanos , Cameron Maybin , Steven Moya

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Tampa Bay
			Dylan Bundy					Jake Odorizzi
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			BAL -115					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.317	1	13.3%	6.0%	SP vs. Left	0.276	12	26.3%	5.6%
SP vs. Right	0.353	2	25.0%	8.3%	SP vs. Right	0.331	23	17.4%	8.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dylan Bundy
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$5,000
					FPPG:		8.9	FPPG:		4.3
					Pitcher Rating:		60.4	Pitcher Rank:		16
L30 Days	0	0.0	2.56	0.00	32.0%	6.0%	12.9%	37.9%	37.9%	33.3%
2016	0	0.0	4.24	3.08	19.2%	7.2%	10.1%	31.4%	44.1%	28.3%

Dylan Bundy: This will be the first major league start for Bundy, the former fourth overall draft pick who has worked out of the bullpen this year for the Orioles with some pretty solid results. We have seen the strikeout potential at times, but starting games can be a completely different animal, and we’ll have to see how he fares the second and third time through a lineup. I like Bundy a lot overall, but in terms of fantasy options today, it is hard to roll him out there even at these cheap prices until we see him work through a couple of starts. Considering the potential and price, you can play him on a risky tournament lineup, but I would not go much further than that.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jake Odorizzi
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$6,100
					FPPG:		25.7	FPPG:		13.7
					Pitcher Rating:		62.6	Pitcher Rank:		11
L30 Days	6	103.0	4.17	6.75	23.4%	7.8%	9.1%	34.0%	48.9%	34.0%
2016	19	101.6	4.18	4.47	22.5%	7.8%	9.0%	38.3%	43.3%	35.9%
2015	28	98.4	3.90	3.35	21.4%	6.6%	10.1%	37.3%	40.6%	27.0%

Jake Odorizzi: He limped into the All-Star break and has struggled against the Orioles this season, which is a huge cause for concern. The thing is, we know that Odorizzi is a better pitcher than what he has shown to this point in the year. With that said, it is going to be a tough task for him to get right against a Baltimore squad that can hit anyone in the league, and as such, I suggest a fade considering the size of the slate and other valuable options we have.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Orioles: It does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that playing Orioles is a good idea, as they are ranked near the top of the league in most offensive categories against right-handed pitching. The beauty of this lineup is that we have seen some production from the bottom part of the order as well, and that creates the ability to have unique stacks for a team that is pretty popular.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.350 (2 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.201 (1 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.08 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.09 (15 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.344	0.213	0.330	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,300
2	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.374	0.232	0.420	2B	$3,000	2B	$4,300
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.385	0.240	0.287	3B	$4,200	3B/SS	$4,000
4	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.393	0.319	0.334	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,200
5	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.352	0.213	0.476	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,100
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.330	0.169	0.166	C	$3,400	C	$4,000
7	J.J. Hardy	RIGHT	0.270	0.119	0.334	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,900
8	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.342	0.239	0.375	3B	$3,000	1B	$3,700
9	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.273	0.075	0.292	OF	$2,800	OF	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.202	0.335	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Manny Machado , Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones , Chris Davis , Jonathan Schoop , Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay

Rays: They have not been great against right-handers on the season in terms of producing runs, but they do carry a pretty solid ISO, giving them some solid upside. With Bundy on the mound, I do not think this is a situation where Tampa puts up a ton of runs, and while they may get to him a little, the fantasy upside is somewhat limited in my opinion.

Rays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.301 (26 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 24.9% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.91 (27 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.91 (23 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Logan Forsythe	RIGHT	0.324	0.118	0.338	2B	$4,200	2B	$3,500
2	Brad Miller	LEFT	0.336	0.204	0.310	SS	$3,600	SS	$4,200
3	Evan Longoria	RIGHT	0.324	0.183	0.396	3B	$3,700	3B	$3,900
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.315	0.181	0.263	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,600
5	Steven Souza	RIGHT	0.314	0.173	0.250	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,300
6	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.354	0.270	0.410	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,500
7	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.287	0.116	0.273	OF	$3,000	OF	$2,700
8	Kevin Kiermaier	LEFT	0.324	0.184		OF	$2,200	OF	$3,900
9	Curt Casali	RIGHT	0.287	0.229	0.205	C	$2,200	C	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.184	0.306	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson , Evan Longoria , Brad Miller

Stackability – None

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Milwaukee					Cincinnati
			Zach Davies					Dan Straily
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			CIN -115					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.323	7	19.5%	8.9%	SP vs. Left	0.317	8	13.8%	14.6%
SP vs. Right	0.295	7	18.8%	6.9%	SP vs. Right	0.292	7	25.1%	5.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Davies
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$6,400
					FPPG:		28.3	FPPG:		14.2
					Pitcher Rating:		50.1	Pitcher Rank:		22
L30 Days	5	95.8	3.73	3.72	22.4%	4.8%	8.4%	44.9%	33.7%	24.7%
2016	15	92.4	4.19	4.10	19.8%	6.7%	7.8%	46.5%	32.3%	32.8%
2015	6	89.8	4.34	3.71	17.3%	10.8%	10.0%	57.6%	21.2%	32.0%

Zach Davies: Davies pitched really well in June with only one bad start against the Dodgers. He has continually been a source of value from his price range, and although I typically try to stay away from this ballpark in the summer heat, we can utilize Davies as a secondary option on DraftKings today at his low salary. With that said, you do not want to be over exposed to him, even against a weaker hitting lineup.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Dan Straily
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		23.4	FPPG:		12.0
					Pitcher Rating:		46.5	Pitcher Rank:		24
L30 Days	6	93.3	5.80	6.35	14.4%	11.0%	7.5%	28.0%	46.7%	34.3%
2016	16	105.4	4.97	4.35	19.0%	10.7%	9.3%	34.6%	42.8%	32.0%
2015	3	97.0	4.67	5.40	18.4%	10.5%	9.6%	41.5%	37.7%	28.3%

Dan Straily: Based on Straily’s numbers, there is really no reason to consider him on a full slate. Sure, Milwaukee is not that great offensively, but I would rather have their bats here than risk it with a pitcher whose chart looks like it got stabbed.

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Brewers: It has not been the best season for this offense, but that does not mean we can’t look their way in a situation like this. Great American Ball Park is one of my favorites to grab hitting from, and with the struggles that Straily has had, it is hard not to like a few Brewers in this one. Obviously, Ryan Braun had a great first half, but it is Jonathan Lucroy who has been better than most realize to this point, so do not be afraid to grab shares of either.

Brewers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.311 (20 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.149 (21 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 26.3% (30 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.93 (26 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (10 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jonathan Villar	SWITCH	0.336	0.113	0.338	SS	$4,400	SS	$4,500
2	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.306	0.128	0.255	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,700
3	Ryan Braun	RIGHT	0.354	0.201	0.281	OF	$3,700	OF	$3,500
4	Jonathan Lucroy	RIGHT	0.352	0.166	0.358	C	$3,300	C	$4,800
5	Chris Carter	RIGHT	0.331	0.253	0.391	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000
6	Kirk Nieuwenhuis	LEFT	0.308	0.175	0.281	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,700
7	Will Middlebrooks	RIGHT	0.250	0.126	0.196	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,700
8	Ramon Flores	LEFT	0.251	0.063	0.209	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,400
9	Zach Davies	RIGHT	0.044	0.000	0.000	P	$7,000	P	$6,400
	Team Averages	—	0.281	0.136	0.257	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jonathan Lucroy , Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar , Chris Carter , Scooter Gennett

Stackability – GPP

Cincinnati

Reds: In large part, we know what to expect from a lineup such as this, and you cannot exactly call them a disappointment. You have three players producing solid fantasy value in Votto, Bruce, and Duvall, so they each are in play here. Zack Cozart is one of my favorite overlooked players in the league and would be worth a tournament flier except for the fact that Davies has been really solid. I do not suggest going too crazy with Reds here despite the higher projected run total.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.296 (28 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (19 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.4% (21 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.22 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.59 (6 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.322	0.189	0.328	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,300
2	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.252	0.060	0.231	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.409	0.227	0.445	1B	$3,600	1B	$5,300
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.333	0.254	0.249	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,800
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.352	0.320	0.304	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,700
6	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.306	0.109	0.304	2B	$2,300	2B	$3,200
7	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.296	0.148	0.266	3B	$2,700	3B	$2,800
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.305	0.098	0.426	C	$2,200	C	$3,300
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.038	0.000	0.000	P	$6,300	P	$5,600
	Team Averages	—	0.290	0.156	0.284	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce , Adam Duvall , Zack Cozart

Stackability – None

Colorado at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Colorado					Atlanta
			Jon Gray					Julio Teheran
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			ATL -115					7.5
SP vs. Left	0.305	7	25.8%	8.7%	SP vs. Left	0.353	27	15.5%	10.2%
SP vs. Right	0.339	9	23.3%	6.9%	SP vs. Right	0.252	16	26.7%	4.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jon Gray
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,300	Salary:		$10,100
					FPPG:		31.5	FPPG:		16.7
					Pitcher Rating:		67.3	Pitcher Rank:		8
L30 Days	5	94.0	4.34	4.60	22.0%	9.8%	10.4%	49.4%	34.2%	32.5%
2016	15	93.6	3.63	4.67	25.9%	7.9%	12.0%	48.5%	29.9%	31.4%
2015	9	75.8	3.89	5.53	21.6%	7.6%	10.1%	42.4%	32.8%	36.4%

Jon Gray: While I am not a fan of either team, this is a game I will have on the screen today as both pitchers are fun to watch, and in this spacious ballpark, we can expect one of the day’s lower-scoring games. Gray has been quite a bit better outside of Coors, posting a higher strikeout rate, and this is a Braves team that ranks dead last in wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitching. The pricing will make it hard to start him on DraftKings, but with that said I like him a lot today.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Julio Teheran
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$8,900
					FPPG:		31.4	FPPG:		18.3
					Pitcher Rating:		67.7	Pitcher Rank:		7
L30 Days	5	106.6	3.73	3.19	21.7%	1.5%	10.7%	35.3%	47.1%	34.6%
2016	18	102.6	3.85	2.96	22.8%	5.3%	9.9%	40.2%	42.4%	35.4%
2015	33	99.2	4.24	4.04	20.3%	8.7%	10.8%	39.5%	36.2%	31.4%

Julio Teheran: Not to be outdone, Teheran has had a very solid season to this point. While having pitched better overall than Gray by a pretty good margin, he does struggle against left-handed bats, of which the Rockies have a few really good ones. His pricing is quite a bit better to fit in on DraftKings, and I have these two pitchers neck and neck on the day.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Rockies: Colorado ranks near the top of the league in most offensive categories against right-handed pitching, but some of that is thanks to their home ballpark. This is a huge park shift for them, and Vegas has this game tied for the lowest O/U on the day, so take those numbers with a grain of salt. Lefties have enjoyed success against Teheran in his career, and as such I like both Charlie Blackmon and Carlos Gonzalez if we are going to grab some exposure from this side.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.342 (4 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.190 (5 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 20.0% (12 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.16 (4 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.66 (27 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.367	0.186	0.353	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,000
2	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.339	0.111	0.373	2B	$3,300	2B	$3,300
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.383	0.306	0.315	3B	$4,400	3B	$3,800
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.412	0.294	0.399	OF	$3,200	OF	$4,000
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.355	0.284	0.279	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,000
6	Daniel Descalso	LEFT	0.309	0.132	0.376	2B	$2,800	1B/OF	$2,600
7	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.334	0.181	0.307	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,400
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.348	0.175	0.305	C	$2,500	C	$2,600
9	Jon Gray	RIGHT	0.175	0.000	0.224	P	$8,300	P	$10,100
	Team Averages	—	0.336	0.185	0.326	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon , Nolan Arenado

Stackability – None

Atlanta

Braves: It has been a whole bunch of ugh for the Braves overall this season, but Freddie Freeman continues to do his thing in the three hole for Atlanta. I like Gray a lot today, and as such, this is not a team I want much exposure to today.

Braves Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.283 (30 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.115 (30 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.9% (10 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.45 (30 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.84 (26 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jace Peterson	LEFT	0.312	0.112	0.405	2B	$2,500	2B	$2,900
2	Gordon Beckham	RIGHT	0.292	0.128	0.431	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$2,700
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.373	0.235	0.427	1B	$3,300	1B	$3,700
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.339	0.106	0.281	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,700
5	Adonis Garcia	RIGHT	0.294	0.149	0.249	3B	$2,300	3B	$2,900
6	Jeff Francoeur	RIGHT	0.302	0.175	0.333	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,400
7	A.J. Pierzynski	LEFT	0.306	0.118	0.240	C	$2,100	C	$2,100
8	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.332	0.118	0.194	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,000
9	Julio Teheran	RIGHT	0.129	0.000	0.346	P	$8,700	P	$8,900
	Team Averages	—	0.298	0.127	0.323	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman , Jace Peterson

Stackability – None

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
NY Mets					Philadelphia
			Jacob deGrom					Zach Eflin
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYM -170					8.0
SP vs. Left	0.281	15	25.4%	5.0%	SP vs. Left	0.296	3	5.8%	5.8%
SP vs. Right	0.239	10	27.3%	5.7%	SP vs. Right	0.332	2	17.5%	2.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jacob deGrom
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$10,600
					FPPG:		31.2	FPPG:		17.3
					Pitcher Rating:		88.6	Pitcher Rank:		2
L30 Days	5	101.0	3.05	2.25	27.8%	4.8%	8.5%	49.4%	28.4%	32.1%
2016	15	98.0	3.58	2.61	24.3%	5.9%	10.3%	47.2%	30.4%	32.4%
2015	30	99.2	2.99	2.54	27.3%	5.1%	12.7%	44.4%	34.7%	26.3%

Jacob deGrom: After an eventful start to the season between a small lingering injury and the birth of a child, we have seen deGrom really start to come into form as the season has gone on. Facing the Phillies, he has to be considered one of the top-tier options on the board. He has everything you are looking for in a starter from matchup to strikeout upside. Grabbing exposure to him in both cash and tournaments is a great move, and although we have him listed as the second-ranked option, it is more like a 1a and 1b situation with Scherzer.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Zach Eflin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		22.7	FPPG:		11.4
					Pitcher Rating:		29.4	Pitcher Rank:		29
L30 Days	6	88.7	5.04	4.08	12.1%	4.0%	6.8%	38.7%	37.9%	29.6%
2016	6	88.7	5.04	4.08	12.1%	4.0%	6.8%	38.7%	37.9%	29.6%

Zach Eflin: The amount that I like deGrom is about the same amount that I dislike Eflin in terms of fantasy value today. He offers far too low of a strikeout rate and is not likely to get a ton of support here facing the Mets ace. With a full slate, this is an easy fade for me.

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Mets: The Mets bats have been all over the place to this point in the season, due in part to injuries, but it has shown some signs of life lately. This is more of a fringe option even with a good matchup against Eflin, as there are about a handful of squads I would rather stack than New York today. With that said, picking and choosing filler options is not a terrible idea.

Mets Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.310 (21 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.177 (8 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.7% (24 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.81 (28 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.41 (11 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.298	0.104	0.414	3B	$3,100	SS	$3,500
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.318	0.176	0.343	SS	$2,700	SS	$4,100
3	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.371	0.226	0.481	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900
4	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.327	0.170	0.252	2B	$3,700	2B	$3,500
5	James Loney	LEFT	0.319	0.103	0.310	1B	$2,800	1B	$3,400
6	Travis D’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.321	0.162	0.396	C	$2,000	C	$3,300
7	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.289	0.075	0.309	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,000
8	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.266	0.087	0.176	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800
9	Jacob deGrom	RIGHT	0.182	0.014	0.000	P	$10,400	P	$10,600
	Team Averages	—	0.299	0.124	0.298	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson , Neil Walker , Jose Reyes

Stackability – None

Philadelphia

Phillies: The Phillies are one of the worst offenses in the league against right-handed pitching, which makes this a pretty easy fade for me. deGrom is a guy who can dominate a lineup, and the Phillies are a team that allows it to happen far too often to have exposure to them here. If you want to take a flier on a couple guys, then Maikel Franco is rounding into shape and Odubel Herrera is one of the better options that people do not seem to recognize from the outfield.

Phillies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (25 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.162 (16 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 21.0% (17 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.64 (29 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 3.59 (28 of 30)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Odubel Herrera	LEFT	0.355	0.145	0.321	OF	$2,900	OF	$4,600
2	Peter Bourjos	RIGHT	0.293	0.156	0.436	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,300
3	Maikel Franco	RIGHT	0.353	0.216	0.510	3B	$2,700	3B	$4,500
4	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.278	0.225	0.405	1B	$2,000	1B	$3,200
5	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.297	0.152	0.450	C	$2,800	C	$3,400
6	Cody Asche	LEFT	0.312	0.178	0.328	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,200
7	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.294	0.126	0.313	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,500
8	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.301	0.088	0.426	2B	$2,400	2B	$3,200
9	Zach Eflin	RIGHT	0.193	0.091	0.265	P	$6,000	P	$6,900
	Team Averages	—	0.297	0.153	0.384	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, July 17th

Kansas City at Detroit – 1:08 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kendrys Morales

Stackability – None

Detroit

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Miguel Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler , Nick Castellanos , Cameron Maybin , Steven Moya

Stackability – GPP

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Manny Machado , Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones , Chris Davis , Jonathan Schoop , Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – GPP

Tampa Bay

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Corey Dickerson , Evan Longoria , Brad Miller

Stackability – None

Milwaukee at Cincinnati – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Milwaukee

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jonathan Lucroy , Ryan Braun

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Villar , Chris Carter , Scooter Gennett

Stackability – GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Joey Votto

Secondary Plays – Jay Bruce , Adam Duvall , Zack Cozart

Stackability – None

Colorado at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Carlos Gonzalez

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon , Nolan Arenado

Stackability – None

Atlanta

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Freddie Freeman , Jace Peterson

Stackability – None

NY Mets at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Curtis Granderson , Neil Walker , Jose Reyes

Stackability – None

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco , Odubel Herrera

Stackability – None

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