MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 3rd

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-06-03 15:35:52

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
NY Yankees								Baltimore
			Domingo German							Alex Cobb
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-160							10.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.268	0.255	26.5%	7.0%	23.9%	44.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.473	0.416	34.3%	5.6%	13.3%	44.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.358	43.9%	15.4%	30.8%	36.6%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.382	0.349	33.0%	5.5%	10.2%	56.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Domingo German
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$16,100
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		6 of 30
	2017	0	3.93	3.14	29.0%	14.5%	54.5%	28.6%	25.7%
	2018	4	3.75	5.45	27.5%	11.4%	41.1%	34.4%	15.6%
	L14	2	3.41	8.68	29.6%	11.4%	60.0%	32.0%	20.0%

Domingo German pitched well in his first start of the season, but he has since struggled. Still, the lanky right boasts a strong K-rate over 27%, which gives him quite a bit of upside in a matchup with the strikeout-happy Orioles. German has allowed a decent amount of hard contact, however, and his walk rate is over 11%. Until he shows he’s capable of commanding his pitches, it’s tough to have much interest in playing him outside of GPPs.

Quick Breakdown: German has K upside, but I’d prefer to see him flash some form before giving him serious consideration.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Alex Cobb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$4,000	Salary:		$8,000
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		26 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30
	2017	29	4.48	3.66	17.3%	5.9%	47.8%	36.9%	14.9%
	2018	9	4.74	6.80	11.5%	5.5%	51.7%	33.5%	20.1%
	L14	3	5.23	6.35	11.8%	7.9%	47.5%	26.2%	24.6%

Alex Cobb is essentially a microcosm of the 2018 Orioles: pretty good in the past, but a disaster this season. Cobb has been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate is a microscopic 11.5% this season. He’s allowed a hard-hit rate over 33%. His ground ball rate is fine, but he’s also allowed a whopping 72 hits in just 46.1 innings. That’s hard to do. Cobb’s 4.75 SIERA is quite a bit better than his 6.80 ERA, but he’s also facing the Yankees today. Literally the only thing Cobb has going in his favor is a cheap price tag, but there’s obviously a reason for that.

Quick Breakdown: Cobb is possibly the worst pitching option on the day.

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

The Yankees get a favorable matchup against a pitcher in Alex Cobb that has been allergic to missing bats this season. I think Cobb is better than he’s shown, but the Yankees are in a great spot today. Lefties are the preferred targets against him, but the righties are also very much in play. There are a number of ways to stack the Yankees today, and I’m cool with just about every bat in the lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.318	0.306	0.162	35.7%	14.3%	17.3%	50.0%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,500	LF	$9,000
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.442	0.454	0.336	46.5%	15.2%	26.3%	45.5%	OF	$5,000	OF	$5,600	RF	$10,600
3	Greg Bird	LEFT	0.224	0.269	0.267	44.4%	0.0%	40.0%	44.4%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,100	1B	$8,400
4	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.296	0.320	0.129	33.3%	9.0%	32.9%	57.0%	OF	$4,400	OF	$5,100	RF	$10,200
5	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.345	0.207	0.281	43.1%	10.8%	14.6%	31.3%	SS	$3,900	SS	$4,300	SS	$8,500
6	Aaron Hicks	SWITCH	0.350	0.358	0.188	41.6%	14.5%	18.8%	44.0%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,200	CF	$8,500
7	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.381	0.401	0.206	39.0%	2.3%	20.8%	49.0%	3B	$2,900	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,400
8	Austin Romine	RIGHT	0.423	0.585	0.219	33.3%	17.9%	20.5%	45.8%	C	$2,200	C	$3,200	C	$6,500
9	Gleyber Torres	RIGHT	0.423	0.516	0.296	39.0%	6.6%	26.4%	27.6%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,700	2B	$9,100

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird

Secondary Plays – Gleyber Torres, Miguel Andujar, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore

The Orioles are a boom-or-bust offense going into a boom-or-bust matchup against Domingo German. While German is a talent, he has been wild with his control and he has shown a fairly pronounced reverse split early in his career. The Baltimore lineup is littered with righties, which could make things tough on German today. I don’t trust the O’s nearly enough to greenlight a full stack in this spot, but some of the bats are viable one-offs. As usual, Manny Machado tops the list.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Joey Rickard	RIGHT	0.320	0.175	0.267	45.5%	6.3%	25.0%	54.5%	OF	$2,200	OF	$2,900	RF	$5,600
2	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.364	0.381	0.226	37.0%	1.8%	20.1%	40.5%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,500
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.376	0.319	0.269	32.3%	10.1%	16.9%	34.6%	SS	$4,300	SS	$5,100	3B	$9,900
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.370	0.304	0.150	47.8%	3.2%	22.6%	41.3%	OF	$2,600	1B	$3,400	DH	$6,300
5	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.221	0.199	0.176	21.8%	0.9%	28.6%	49.4%	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,400	2B	$6,800
6	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.382	0.281	0.123	34.9%	10.3%	21.8%	49.1%	OF	$2,400	1B/OF	$3,400	IF/OF	$6,900
7	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.282	0.272	0.045	30.9%	8.8%	35.4%	46.8%	1B	$2,200	1B	$2,800	IF/OF	$5,800
8	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.358	0.412	0.170	32.4%	5.9%	21.6%	40.5%	3B	$2,500	3B	$3,100	3B	$5,500
9	Chance Sisco	LEFT	0.282	0.316	0.105	34.0%	8.1%	36.4%	46.9%	C	$2,100	C	$3,200	C	$6,300

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini, Adam Jones

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								NY Mets
			Jon Lester							Steven Matz
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-135							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.339	31.6%	5.7%	20.8%	44.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.299	0.283	8.7%	13.9%	16.7%	90.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.355	35.0%	9.1%	20.7%	34.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.343	40.0%	10.1%	22.0%	42.6%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,400
	Salary Rank:		8 of 30	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		2 of 30
	2017	32	4.07	4.33	23.6%	7.9%	46.2%	28.1%	21.4%
	2018	11	4.37	2.71	20.7%	8.4%	36.6%	34.3%	14.9%
	L14	3	3.35	2.84	24.7%	2.7%	34.0%	34.6%	13.5%

It’s hard to fathom paying a premium for the version of Jon Lester we’ve seen this season, but there is merit to rostering him on this slate. His 4.37 SIERA suggests his 2.71 ERA is fraudulent, and his hard contact and fly ball rates are both way up from what we have normally seen. Lester’s strikeouts are also down to 20.7%. While the numbers are cause for concern, Lester does get a good matchup today against a lefty-heavy Mets squad. New York’s lineup isn’t imposing, especially with Yoenis Cespedes on the shelf. Most of the Mets’ best hitters are lefties, and Lester has shown that he can still get them out. Citi Field is also a strong park for pitchers. The price tag is a bit gross on DK, but Lester the best pitching option on the main slate today.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is the premier pitching option on the main slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Steven Matz
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,900
	Salary Rank:		22 of 30	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		13 of 30
	2017	13	4.71	6.08	16.1%	6.4%	47.1%	32.9%	21.9%
	2018	10	4.49	3.55	21.0%	10.8%	51.2%	34.4%	15.6%
	L14	3	5.43	2.77	12.5%	10.7%	53.7%	36.6%	24.4%

Steven Matz left his last start with a strained middle finger on his pitching hand. He’s apparently good to go today, but just remember that this is the Mets so anything is possible. If Matz is truly ready to roll, he makes for an intriguing cheapie in a tough matchup with the Cubs. The lefty has a decent 21% strikeout rate this season along with an unsightly walk rate nearing 11%. The hard contact numbers are a little too high, but he’s sporting a ground ball rate north of 51% and he’s done a fine job limiting damage to lefties. That said, Matz has allowed 8 homers and a .334 wOBA this season against righties, and Chicago does have a few of those that can inflict some damage. Matz is a decent SP2 try given his cheap price tag.

Quick Breakdown: Matz may make his way into the cash game SP2 conversation, but I don’t feel great about it.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Matz has been tough on lefties, with 36 of his 39 career homers allowed coming against right-handed hitters. I’m willing to pass on guys like Rizzo and Schwarber here and focus my attention on Chicago’s right-handers. Kris Bryant is obviously the top play, followed by Willson Contreras and Javier Baez. “(player-popup #albert-almora)Albert Almora Jr is in play if he finds a favorable lineup spot, as well. The ballpark kinda stinks, but a Cubs mini-stack is plenty viable if you think Matz has a blow-up start coming.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Albert Almora	RIGHT	0.346	0.328	0.191	28.3%	9.4%	3.8%	44.4%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,900
2	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.369	0.263	0.255	38.1%	5.5%	16.4%	56.4%	2B	$3,900	2B/SS	$4,900	2B	$9,500
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.508	0.340	0.500	52.8%	10.2%	16.3%	16.7%	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,000	IF/OF	$10,200
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.308	0.419	0.140	28.1%	8.2%	22.4%	22.6%	1B	$4,100	1B	$4,700	1B	$9,900
5	Willson Contreras	RIGHT	0.385	0.330	0.171	31.3%	16.3%	18.4%	50.0%	C	$3,000	C	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,300
6	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.392	0.369	0.074	44.4%	18.2%	27.3%	50.0%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,300	IF/OF	$8,300
7	Addison Russell	RIGHT	0.301	0.304	0.227	27.8%	8.2%	18.4%	34.3%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,700
8	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.279	0.339	0.000	26.9%	8.1%	21.6%	52.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$3,300	RF	$6,700
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.025	0.319	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	57.1%	0.0%	P	$8,400	P	$10,400	P	$20,400

Elite Plays – Kris Bryant, Javier Baez

Secondary Plays – Willson Contreras, “(player-popup #albert-almora)Albert Almora Jr

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Like Matz, the way to attack Lester is with righties. Unfortunately for the Mets, they have far fewer quality right-handed sticks than their opponent this afternoon. Wilmer Flores is really the only Mets righty that stands out, and he makes for a solid value. Asdrubal Cabrera is also playable, but he’s been more effective as a lefty in his career. Devin Mesoraco and Jose Bautista may also pop up as potential sources of salary relief.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.267	0.398	0.167	43.8%	11.4%	40.0%	50.0%	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,400
2	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.364	0.411	0.183	41.2%	7.5%	16.4%	48.0%	2B	$3,500	2B	$4,200	SS	$8,000
3	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.333	0.351	0.292	35.3%	22.6%	22.6%	11.8%	OF	$2,600	3B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,800
4	Michael Conforto	LEFT	0.312	0.372	0.098	25.0%	12.5%	37.5%	66.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
5	Devin Mesoraco	RIGHT	0.331	0.403	0.042	36.8%	10.7%	17.9%	52.6%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	C	$6,800
6	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.257	0.335	0.078	29.7%	5.6%	25.9%	37.8%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,500
7	Kevin Plawecki	RIGHT	0.270	0.343	0.000	50.0%	20.0%	40.0%	100.0%	C	$2,000	C	$2,800	C	$5,700
8	Amed Rosario	RIGHT	0.367	0.321	0.190	37.5%	4.5%	22.7%	34.4%	SS	$2,300	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,700
9	Steven Matz	LEFT	0.285	0.230	0.000	0.0%	33.3%	33.3%	100.0%	P	$6,400	P	$6,900	P	$13,900

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Wilmer Flores

Stackability – RED

Toronto at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Toronto								Detroit
			Aaron Sanchez							Michael Fulmer
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-120							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.400	0.362	30.8%	16.9%	12.3%	52.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.349	0.384	36.8%	9.6%	18.5%	44.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.290	0.405	33.0%	9.0%	20.7%	51.5%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.308	0.326	39.3%	8.9%	21.8%	46.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$15,200
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30	Salary Rank:		9 of 30
	2017	8	5.62	4.25	14.4%	12.0%	47.5%	29.5%	21.3%
	2018	11	5.19	4.77	16.7%	12.7%	52.1%	31.9%	20.7%
	L14	2	5.89	6.30	12.5%	12.5%	44.4%	22.2%	22.2%

Aaron Sanchez looked like a future ace as recently as 2 seasons ago, but he hasn’t been the same guy since. So far this season, the right-hander has a 5.19 SIERA along with a 16.7% strikeout rate and a 12.7% walk rate. Sanchez has been effective in terms of inducing grounders, and he has stifled righties to the tune of a .290 wOBA allowed. Lefties have posted a .400 mark against him, however. Fortunately, he’ll be facing a Detroit lineup devoid of much left-handed pop today. Sanchez is plenty capable of posting a fine outing today, but I have a hard time stomaching an $8k price tag on DK.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez gets an exploitable matchup against the Tigers, but there are better pitching options on this slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Michael Fulmer
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$14,800
	Salary Rank:		13 of 30	Salary Rank:		17 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30
	2017	25	4.48	3.83	16.9%	5.9%	49.2%	30.0%	18.1%
	2018	11	4.42	4.60	20.1%	9.3%	45.4%	38.0%	14.5%
	L14	3	5.30	5.28	19.7%	13.6%	32.6%	46.5%	7.0%

Michael Fulmer is a big, burly right-hander that looks like he should be a hard-thrower that racks up a bunch of Ks. While he’s a solid real life pitcher, the strikeout numbers are pretty pedestrian. Fulmer’s 20.1% K-rate is slightly above his career 18.8% mark, but his walks have also come up over 9% this season. Fulmer has also yielded a hard-hit rate of 38%, and he’s already allowed 8 dingers after serving up just 13 all of last year. Fulmer has a fairly wide split, which could prove problematic today against a Toronto lineup with some decent lefties. His overall performance has been all over the map this season, but he’s one of the better pitching options on a weak pitching slate.

Quick Breakdown: Fulmer is a playable SP2 today due to the lack of appealing options.

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Fulmer isn’t a bad pitcher, but he’s attackable with left-handed bats. Justin Smoak always stands out as the best play on the Toronto side, and I think you can also deploy Yangervis Solarte, who is a decent hitter that always goes under-owned. Curtis Granderson is another potential option, but he does come with quite a bit of pinch-hit risk if the Tigers bring a lefty out of the ‘pen. I can get behind a mini-stack of the Jays in GPPs.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Curtis Granderson	LEFT	0.363	0.333	0.184	41.7%	16.5%	30.2%	33.3%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,700
2	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.365	0.283	0.175	37.4%	6.4%	19.2%	39.1%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,600
3	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.348	0.319	0.197	30.9%	7.6%	15.9%	40.0%	SS	$3,200	2B/3B	$3,700	2B	$7,700
4	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.400	0.406	0.228	35.9%	18.9%	25.9%	32.1%	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,400
5	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.413	0.321	0.269	38.4%	4.3%	19.8%	38.4%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,200
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.307	0.313	0.182	33.8%	12.2%	27.0%	50.0%	C	$2,000	C	$3,100	C	$5,800
7	Kendrys Morales	SWITCH	0.388	0.554	0.151	42.4%	9.5%	21.1%	47.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,300	1B	$6,500
8	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.230	0.245	0.078	21.4%	4.3%	31.4%	66.7%	2B	$2,200	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,800
9	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.380		0.301	39.1%	5.1%	11.5%	42.2%	SS	$2,000	SS	$3,200	SS	$6,300

Elite Plays – Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Curtis Granderson

Stackability – ORANGE

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The Tigers get a decent matchup at home today against a struggling pitcher in Aaron Sanchez. The problem with Detroit is that the lineup isn’t full of a bunch of guys we want to cram into our lineups. Nick Castellanos and Jeimer Candelario stand out as the preferred options despite the lack of a platoon edge over Sanchez, while I think you can also take a stab at Leonys Martin and/or Niko Goodrum from the left side. Miguel Cabrera is also back in the mix, for what it’s worth.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.425	0.275	0.202	39.8%	8.5%	18.4%	33.7%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,900	CF	$7,200
2	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.374	0.354	0.181	47.5%	4.1%	22.5%	33.6%	OF	$3,900	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,500
3	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.347	0.417	0.238	37.0%	10.7%	21.4%	42.4%	3B	$3,400	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,200
4	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.417		0.211	47.5%	13.3%	15.7%	59.3%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,500	1B	$9,300
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.365	0.385	0.099	45.1%	9.4%	9.4%	37.8%	C	$2,500	1B	$3,000	1B	$5,700
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.361	0.390	0.238	34.6%	8.7%	31.5%	45.5%	OF	$2,900	3B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,600
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.299	0.342	0.076	34.4%	6.2%	18.6%	39.6%	C	$2,400	C	$3,100	C	$5,900
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.268	0.290	0.086	23.7%	4.9%	12.9%	48.4%	SS	$2,500	SS	$3,100	SS	$5,500
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.313	0.259	0.081	34.6%	6.8%	18.2%	45.5%	2B	$2,300	2B	$2,700	SS	$5,500

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Leonys Martin, Jeimer Candelario, Miguel Cabrera

Stackability – ORANGE

Washington at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Washington								Atlanta
			Jeremy Hellickson							Anibal Sanchez
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			ATL-100							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.341	29.6%	5.2%	19.6%	45.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.396	36.8%	14.3%	28.6%	47.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.231	0.299	32.7%	1.5%	23.1%	48.9%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.309	0.281	15.6%	7.1%	14.3%	46.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jeremy Hellickson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$14,900
	Salary Rank:		18 of 30	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		10 of 30
	2017	30	5.37	5.43	13.8%	6.8%	34.9%	32.0%	19.9%
	2018	8	3.57	2.30	21.0%	3.7%	47.0%	30.8%	20.0%
	L14	2	3.58	2.61	19.5%	2.4%	43.3%	40.0%	16.7%

Hellboy has pitched pretty well this season, as evidenced by his 3.57 SIERA and 21% strikeout rate. He has kept the walks and hard contact down, and he’s surrendered just 4 homers after allowing 35 a season ago. The key here is that the Diamondbacks rarely let him face a lineup a third time through. That typically limits his upside, as he’s rarely gone beyond 5 innings. Hellickson also gets a difficult matchup against a Braves team that has been raking against right-handed pitching all year long.

Quick Breakdown: Hellickson may pitch well again, but he doesn’t go deep enough into games and the matchup is suboptimal.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Anibal Sanchez
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,600	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:		$11,300
	Salary Rank:		28 of 30	Salary Rank:		21 of 30	Salary Rank:		15 of 30
	2017	17	4.16	6.41	21.6%	6.0%	35.6%	37.4%	16.8%
	2018	3	4.39	3.00	20.8%	10.4%	47.1%	23.5%	33.3%
	L14	1	5.62	9.00	10.5%	10.5%	57.1%	42.9%	28.6%

Anibal Sanchez has pitched in 4 games for the Braves this season, 3 of which have been starts. The veteran has a 4.40 SIERA along with a 20.8% K-rate. The walks are over 10%, but his soft contact rate is about 10% higher than his hard contact rate. We’re working with quite the small sample size here, though, and Sanchez faces a solid Nationals lineup in this one. Sanchez struggled in his last start against the Mets, allowing 4 runs on 5 hits in 4 innings, including a couple of homers. Washington has some scary left-handed hitters, and Sanchez comes with minimal upside.

Quick Breakdown: Sanchez is an easy fade.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

The preferred approach is to attack Anibal with lefties, which instantly puts Bryce Harper and Matt Adams into elite play territory. He doesn’t turn into Max Scherzer against righties, either, so Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are also solid plays. The watered-down Nats lineup makes a full stack look kinda gross, so I’d probably prefer limiting my exposure to the aforementioned targets.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.358	0.373	0.145	38.2%	11.1%	20.0%	53.3%	SS	$4,200	SS	$4,800	IF/OF	$8,400
2	Bryce Harper	LEFT	0.455	0.331	0.368	46.9%	21.0%	18.5%	34.7%	OF	$5,100	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,600
3	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.393	0.426	0.224	35.3%	10.9%	11.8%	34.5%	3B	$3,800	3B	$4,100	3B	$8,100
4	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.413	0.244	0.345	43.5%	11.9%	19.8%	31.8%	1B	$3,600	1B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,800
5	Juan Soto	LEFT	0.371	0.405	0.087	50.0%	8.0%	28.0%	25.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
6	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.284	0.290	0.120	31.2%	10.1%	27.0%	51.1%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,500	CF	$6,900
7	Pedro Severino	RIGHT	0.276	0.232	0.066	23.3%	11.2%	18.0%	41.7%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,700
8	Jeremy Hellickson	RIGHT	0.022	0.009	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	50.0%	100.0%	P	$6,600	P	$7,500	P	$14,900
9	Wilmer Difo	SWITCH	0.309	0.318	0.106	17.1%	12.3%	15.6%	48.8%	2B	$2,700	2B/3B	$3,200	2B	$6,500

Elite Plays – Bryce Harper, Matt Adams

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon

Stackability – YELLOW

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Hellickson has pitched well, he is still vulnerable to left-handers. We know most of Atlanta’s best hitters happen to swing it from that side of the plate, so I’m fine deploying them against him. Freddie Freeman is the best play from the Braves, as usual, while Ozzie Albies, Ender Inciarte and Nick Markakis also profile well in this spot.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.296	0.307	0.133	28.4%	7.2%	14.4%	45.6%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,000
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.323	0.311	0.233	32.1%	6.4%	19.7%	35.6%	2B	$4,000	2B	$5,500	2B	$10,900
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.445	0.369	0.173	46.1%	16.6%	14.8%	31.3%	1B	$4,200	1B	$5,400	1B	$11,000
4	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.392	0.304	0.154	32.6%	11.5%	6.7%	42.2%	OF	$3,400	OF	$4,300	RF	$8,600
5	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.321	0.327	0.188	37.9%	5.3%	7.9%	33.7%	C	$2,300	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
6	Johan Camargo	SWITCH	0.419	0.435	0.262	52.1%	23.2%	15.9%	47.9%	3B	$2,400	3B/SS	$3,300	SS	$6,600
7	Preston Tucker	LEFT	0.300	0.246	0.172	38.5%	5.4%	24.7%	45.3%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,400	LF	$6,400
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.277	0.190	0.115	26.7%	6.4%	29.1%	47.2%	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,700
9	Anibal Sanchez	RIGHT	0.358	0.000	0.000	0.0%	25.0%	0.0%	0.0%	P	$5,600	P	$5,500	P	$11,300

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Minnesota
			Mike Clevinger							Kyle Gibson
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-115							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.284	0.334	29.8%	9.8%	18.8%	49.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.311	0.310	32.4%	7.8%	24.5%	40.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.300	0.293	31.4%	6.6%	23.8%	44.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.277	0.328	37.3%	12.2%	25.0%	49.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Mike Clevinger
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,100	Salary:		$11,100	Salary:		$21,400
	Salary Rank:		3 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30	Salary Rank:		1 of 30
	2017	21	4.24	3.11	27.3%	12.0%	39.5%	34.2%	18.6%
	2018	11	4.10	3.14	21.5%	8.1%	46.9%	30.7%	17.1%
	L14	3	4.49	4.42	22.4%	11.8%	44.9%	36.7%	18.4%

Mike Clevinger once said that the Indians are just as good as the Astros, which is downright adorable and not at all salty. Anyway, Clevinger is a decent right-handed pitcher that is way overpriced on this slate. He’s the most expensive pitcher on the DK afternoon slate. So far this season, Clev has a strikeout rate of 21% and a SIERA of 4.10. He’s definitely an above-average starter, but you’re paying a premium to roster him today against the Twins. He’s also boasted a career walk rate of 11%, which isn’t great. He does come with a long leash, but he’s not quite as safe as his hefty price tag may indicate. Clevinger has upside in the right matchup, but I have no idea how you can justify forking over $11k for him on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Given the price tag, I’ll be passing on Clevinger.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Kyle Gibson
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,400	Salary:		$7,800	Salary:		$15,400
	Salary Rank:		14 of 30	Salary Rank:		11 of 30	Salary Rank:		8 of 30
	2017	29	4.67	5.07	17.5%	8.7%	50.8%	35.8%	15.4%
	2018	11	4.05	3.57	24.8%	10.5%	46.1%	35.3%	18.8%
	L14	3	4.14	3.93	20.8%	7.8%	44.4%	25.5%	27.3%

Kyle Gibson has been downright solid this season. His 3.57 ERA may be a bit lucky, but he’s posted a very solid 24.8% strikeout rate, which is well above his career mark of 16.7%. The walks are too high at over 10%, though, and he has a tough matchup against the Indians this afternoon. Gibson has allowed a hard-hit rate over 35% and his ground ball rate is down this year. He has shown that he is playable in the right matchup, but I have a hard time advocating for any pitcher going up against Cleveland. While Gibson has flashed more upside than we’re used to seeing from him, the risk outweighs the potential reward, in my opinion.

Quick Breakdown: Gibson has been impressive, but I won’t be playing him against the Tribe.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While Kyle Gibson looks improved this season, he’s still not without his flaws. He is walking too many guys and his hard-hit and fly ball rates are both higher than usual. He has also been a guy that has gotten lit up by left-handed hitters over the course of his career, and we know the Indians have quite a few of those. Once again, I’m interested in a few Cleveland bats here. The problem is that most of them are expensive, and I’m not crazy about a full stack. You can always play Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley and others, of course. I’d start with the lefties, while righties like Edwin Encarnacion are more fringe options on this slate.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.425	0.360	0.307	40.2%	8.9%	20.7%	28.7%	SS	$4,700	SS	$5,200	SS	$9,900
2	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.428	0.449	0.248	41.7%	7.5%	11.2%	43.5%	OF	$4,600	OF	$4,900	LF	$9,200
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.414	0.384	0.376	31.2%	15.0%	9.6%	35.2%	3B	$4,900	3B	$5,300	IF/OF	$9,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.374	0.439	0.265	37.9%	6.7%	27.3%	36.8%	1B	$4,200	1B	$4,800	1B	$9,500
5	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.381	0.385	0.216	37.9%	9.4%	21.5%	39.2%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,500
6	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.275	0.320	0.135	36.1%	5.4%	28.6%	51.5%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,300
7	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.358	0.426	0.086	38.3%	9.4%	18.8%	34.7%	2B	$3,100	2B	$3,600	2B	$7,300
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.273	0.235	0.161	33.9%	5.3%	30.5%	32.2%	C	$2,000	C	$3,300	C	$6,800
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.274		0.058	42.1%	6.8%	41.9%	44.4%	OF	$2,400	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,500

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Michael Brantley, Jose Ramirez

Secondary Plays – Jason Kipnis, Edwin Encarnacion

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

While I don’t want to pay for Clevinger, I’m also not excited to be rostering Twins on the other side. Clev has shown a slight reverse split in his career, which puts Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano into consideration for tournaments. Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar and Max Kepler are decent secondary plays from the left side if you need to go there, but I think the Twins in general are pretty easy to avoid today.

#	Player	Bats	xwOBA	L15	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.315	0.315	0.173	34.8%	8.9%	18.8%	40.6%	2B	$4,100	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,700
2	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.347	0.398	0.213	37.7%	5.1%	17.7%	32.2%	OF	$3,700	OF	$4,100	LF	$8,000
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.315	0.253	0.289	48.9%	6.7%	40.4%	46.8%	3B	$3,600	1B/3B	$4,000	IF/OF	$7,200
4	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.364	0.419	0.187	37.8%	13.2%	17.4%	34.0%	1B	$3,100	1B	$3,100	1B	$5,600
5	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.339	0.318	0.244	38.6%	6.2%	24.0%	26.7%	3B	$3,400	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,400
6	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.350	0.357	0.167	43.2%	12.6%	13.9%	38.7%	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,600	RF	$7,500
7	Robbie Grossman	SWITCH	0.322	0.309	0.095	40.6%	11.3%	22.7%	32.8%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,000	LF	$6,000
8	Ryan LaMarre	RIGHT	0.320	0.218	0.000	44.4%	9.4%	31.3%	50.0%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
9	Bobby Wilson	RIGHT	0.229	0.209	0.179	33.3%	6.3%	28.1%	57.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,500

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Brian Dozier, Eddie Rosario

Stackability – ORANGE

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

MLB Grind Down: Sunday, June 3rd

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

NY Yankees at Baltimore – 1:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Chicago Cubs at NY Mets – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Toronto at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Washington at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Cleveland at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

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