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MLB Grind Down: Sunday, May 27th

by Taylor Smith (tcsmith031) Last Updated 2018-05-27 23:27:00

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Atlanta at Boston – 1:05 PM ET

Atlanta Boston
Article Image Mike Foltynewicz Article Image Chris Sale
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-230 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.334 33.9% 15.0% 26.6% 33.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.239 0.212 19.1% 2.5% 40.0% 45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.281 0.301 35.1% 7.8% 27.6% 43.8% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.261 0.268 28.3% 6.7% 33.6% 39.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Mike Foltynewicz
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $7,500 Salary: $14,600
Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 10 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.57 4.79 20.7% 8.5% 39.4% 28.1% 15.8%
2018 10 3.97 2.72 27.1% 11.4% 39.1% 34.5% 20.9%
L14 3 4.15 0.56 27.5% 13.0% 40.0% 24.4% 36.6%

Mike Foltynewicz appears to have taken a step forward this season. He has a strikeout rate over 27% and he’s allowed more than 2 earned runs just once in his first 10 starts of the year. There are a couple of red flags, though, most notably his walk rate over 11%. Folty is also a fly ball pitcher giving up a decent amount of hard contact. I’m a believer in his long-term potential, but a road matchup with the Red Sox is a rough setting for any pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Folty’s upside is limited on the road against the Red Sox.

Chris Sale
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,600 Salary: $11,800 Salary: $22,800
Salary Rank: 1 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 2 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 32 2.58 2.90 36.2% 5.1% 38.7% 29.7% 18.5%
2018 11 2.59 2.17 34.5% 6.1% 40.1% 27.0% 28.9%
L14 3 2.26 2.49 39.8% 7.2% 35.7% 30.2% 27.9%

Chris Sale endured a few mediocre starts (by his lofty standards) early in the season, but he’s again showing why he may be the best pitcher in baseball. Sale has yet to pitch a scoreless outing so far, but he’s been able to mitigate any damage done against him thanks to his huge strikeout numbers. Sale has a K-rate of 34.5% and he has once again kept the walks to a minimum. He has been somewhat susceptible to surrendering homers to righties (8 allowed this year, all to RHBs), but several of Atlanta’s best hitters are left-handed. The Braves are a strong offense in general, but Sale is one of the strongest plays on the board, as usual.

Quick Breakdown: Sale is one of the premier pitching options on the slate.

Batter Grind Down

Atlanta

If you must play a hitter against Sale for some reason, make sure it’s a righty. There are some hitters in this lineup capable of poking one over the Green Monster in left, but you’re obviously not stacking the Braves in this spot. “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr and Ozzie Albies are playable as low-owned GPP fliers, but that’s about it.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ozzie Albies SWITCH 0.396 0.345 0.407 41.7% 1.8% 12.5% 35.4% 2B $4,000 2B $4,900 2B $9,200
2 Ronald Acuna RIGHT 0.361 0.364 0.219 34.8% 8.3% 25.0% 47.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 LF $8,200
3 Freddie Freeman LEFT 0.472 0.475 0.316 47.8% 13.2% 17.6% 39.1% 1B $4,100 1B $4,700 1B $9,400
4 Nick Markakis LEFT 0.345 0.368 0.169 34.6% 7.1% 14.3% 43.6% OF $3,500 OF $4,500 RF $9,000
5 Kurt Suzuki RIGHT 0.409 0.290 0.231 41.7% 10.3% 6.9% 41.7% C $2,300 C $3,200 C $6,600
6 Ender Inciarte LEFT 0.260 0.271 0.021 29.7% 7.8% 19.6% 44.4% OF $2,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,000
7 Tyler Flowers RIGHT 0.494 0.501 0.300 50.0% 33.3% 13.3% 50.0% C $2,100 C $3,200 C $6,500
8 Johan Camargo SWITCH 0.287 0.390 0.080 40.0% 3.8% 19.2% 40.0% 3B $2,300 3B/SS $2,900 SS $5,900
9 Dansby Swanson RIGHT 0.352 0.113 0.222 42.9% 5.3% 21.1% 38.5% SS $2,200 SS $3,200 SS $6,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – “(player-popup #ronald-acuna)Ronald Acuna Jr (GPP), Ozzie Albies (GPP)

Stackability – RED

Boston

Mike Foltynewicz has done a good job keeping right-handed hitters in check this season, but he’s quite a bit more vulnerable against lefties. You can play elite bats like Mookie Betts or J.D. Martinez in most matchups, but I prefer to attack Folty with lefties. Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland and Andrew Benintendi are solid plays either individually or as a part of a Sox stack. I wouldn’t recommend loading up on Red Sox, but they’re viable.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.527 0.465 0.362 50.0% 10.1% 12.8% 30.4% OF $5,100 OF $6,000 RF $11,500
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.371 0.396 0.219 27.5% 11.9% 12.6% 35.8% OF $4,200 OF $5,100 LF $9,800
3 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.471 0.410 0.312 36.5% 12.4% 16.9% 39.7% 1B $3,600 1B $4,100 1B $8,100
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.485 0.515 0.386 53.3% 10.1% 23.3% 43.8% OF $4,700 OF $5,000 RF $9,900
5 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.408 0.364 0.263 38.8% 2.8% 18.9% 45.0% SS $3,800 SS $4,300 SS $8,500
6 Dustin Pedroia RIGHT 2B $3,000 2B $3,700 2B $7,700
7 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.357 0.309 0.193 43.4% 8.7% 25.3% 41.8% 3B $3,300 3B $3,300 3B $6,500
8 Blake Swihart SWITCH 0.372 0.405 0.056 40.0% 10.0% 15.0% 53.3% C $2,000 C/OF $2,600 IF/OF $4,700
9 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.308 0.310 0.108 33.3% 5.0% 22.5% 37.0% C $2,200 C $2,900 C $5,400

Elite Plays – Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

LA Angels NY Yankees
Article Image Garrett Richards Article Image Masahiro Tanaka
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-141 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.282 0.291 31.3% 12.6% 29.7% 56.3% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.321 0.339 27.8% 7.4% 15.8% 48.6%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.313 0.347 41.9% 8.3% 22.2% 48.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.303 0.323 36.3% 5.2% 25.7% 44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Garrett Richards
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,100 Salary: $6,000 Salary: $12,000
Salary Rank: 13 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29 Salary Rank: 13 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 6 3.60 2.28 25.0% 6.5% 54.2% 27.0% 24.3%
2018 10 3.82 3.31 26.0% 10.5% 52.2% 37.7% 17.4%
L14 3 4.23 2.08 17.4% 4.4% 42.6% 48.2% 13.0%

This was supposed to be a start for Shohei Ohtani, but the Halos pushed him back in order to give his arm some more rest. Instead, we’ll see Garrett Richards taking the mound in a tough matchup with the Yankees. The right-hander has big strikeout upside (26% this season), but walks have been a problem. It’s worth noting he hasn’t walked more than 2 in a start since April 28, though, so hopefully he’s figured something out. While the Yanks on the road is a tough matchup, New York does have some hitters that will swing-and-miss. Richards comes with plenty of risk, but there’s merit to giving him a try as a high-upside SP2. Still, I’m more likely to find my SP2 elsewhere on this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Richards is talented enough to be a playable SP2 in tournaments, but I’ll be going elsewhere in cash games.

Masahiro Tanaka
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,800 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 15 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 30 3.52 4.74 25.8% 5.5% 49.2% 31.4% 19.5%
2018 10 3.85 4.95 21.7% 6.1% 46.5% 32.5% 18.4%
L14 3 5.07 6.46 12.3% 9.2% 54.2% 32.0% 12.0%

Masahiro Tanaka hasn’t been quite as sharp as we’re used to seeing. His strikeout rate is down about 4% to 21.7% so far this season. We can probably chalk some of that up to his matchups, as he’s endured a recent run against some quality lineups of late. Today is no different, with the low-strikeout, high-powered Angels side coming into the Bronx. Tanaka did dominate the Halos to the tune of 9 strikeouts in 6 innings in Anaheim last month, but this generally isn’t a lineup I like to target. He’s in play as a low-owned tournament option, but there are better pitching plays for cash today.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka has decent strikeout potential, but this matchup is enough to scare me away.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Tanaka is a generally solid pitcher, but he has been known to give up some dongs. He has already yielded 11 of those in 56.1 innings so far this season, and we know Yankee Stadium is a dopey bandbox of a park. Tanaka has had a pretty neutral split during his career, with a slight lean toward a reverse split. That bodes well for the Angels, who have a lineup loaded with right-handed bats. I’m not going to endorse a full-on green Angels stack, but the usual suspects are solid plays here today.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.326 0.352 0.104 31.0% 10.8% 9.9% 44.8% 2B $3,100 2B $3,000 2B $5,600
2 Mike Trout RIGHT 0.440 0.358 0.323 46.5% 19.5% 19.5% 33.7% OF $5,300 OF $5,700 CF $10,200
3 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.377 0.398 0.242 43.1% 7.2% 26.3% 41.3% OF $3,800 OF $3,900 LF $7,300
4 Albert Pujols RIGHT 0.331 0.297 0.167 39.0% 4.0% 13.9% 39.8% 1B $2,900 1B $3,100 1B $6,000
5 Shohei Ohtani RIGHT 0.441 0.403 0.358 47.1% 4.3% 22.9% 39.2% OF $4,100 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
6 Andrelton Simmons RIGHT 0.374 0.375 0.149 37.1% 6.1% 4.6% 46.9% SS $3,700 SS $4,000 SS $7,600
7 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.311 0.289 0.183 36.7% 7.1% 19.9% 40.2% 3B $2,700 2B/3B $3,100 SS $5,800
8 Martin Maldonado RIGHT 0.298 0.259 0.107 24.6% 5.4% 16.1% 39.7% C $2,300 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Kole Calhoun LEFT 0.251 0.276 0.054 34.6% 5.0% 29.4% 59.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,800 RF $5,400

Elite Plays – Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Andrelton Simmons

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

While I admittedly have a little interest in Richards on the other side, the Yankees are always viable when they’re at home. The right-hander’s hard-throwing ways naturally means he’s going to give up plenty of hard contact, and we see pop-ups fly over the wall in this ballpark all the time. Like Tanaka, Richards has slight reverse-splits, so the Yankee righties stand to benefit. As usual, Judge, Stanton and Sanchez are the prime targets.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brett Gardner LEFT 0.311 0.358 0.094 32.3% 16.1% 17.4% 50.0% OF $3,300 OF $4,100 LF $8,200
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.426 0.453 0.304 45.9% 14.8% 27.5% 43.5% OF $4,900 OF $5,500 RF $10,800
3 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.367 0.215 0.307 45.9% 11.9% 14.8% 27.8% SS $3,800 SS $4,100 SS $8,000
4 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.310 0.457 0.146 36.6% 10.1% 32.9% 57.3% OF $4,800 OF $5,300 RF $9,800
5 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.368 0.417 0.210 43.1% 16.0% 19.0% 42.9% OF $3,600 OF $3,900 CF $7,400
6 Greg Bird LEFT 1B $2,500 1B $3,900 1B $7,200
7 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.383 0.401 0.215 41.9% 0.9% 20.2% 48.8% 3B $3,600 3B $3,700 3B $7,200
8 Austin Romine RIGHT 0.369 0.444 0.154 31.6% 16.1% 22.6% 52.6% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,600
9 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.414 0.535 0.290 37.5% 7.0% 22.5% 29.8% 2B $4,100 2B $4,500 2B $9,200

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Didi Gregorius, Greg Bird

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore at Tampa Bay – 1:10 PM ET

Baltimore Tampa Bay
Article Image Kevin Gausman Article Image Sergio Romo
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TB -105 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.298 0.306 26.8% 9.9% 22.3% 38.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.419 0.290 36.8% 9.7% 22.6% 42.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.345 0.336 36.1% 2.1% 21.7% 51.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.307 0.355 42.9% 11.3% 35.9% 25.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,500 Salary: $8,100 Salary: $16,200
Salary Rank: 10 of 29 Salary Rank: 12 of 29 Salary Rank: 9 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 10 3.75 3.48 22.0% 5.7% 46.3% 32.1% 16.8%
L14 3 2.92 3.93 26.2% 3.6% 50.0% 28.8% 18.6%

Kevin Gausman has had his fair share of ups and downs this season, but there’s still a solid pitcher in there somewhere. He was dominant in his last outing against the White Sox, finishing with 10 strikeouts over the course of 6.1 shutout innings. Gausman is a slightly above-average strikeout pitcher that has allowed a hard contact rate of about 32% this season. Home runs are a problem for him, as he’s already surrendered 10 this season after giving up 29 bombs a year ago. He gets a park upgrade today going into the Trop and the Rays aren’t an offense that hits for much power. Gausman will get blown up on occasion, but I like him as a cheapish SP2 play in this spot.

Quick Breakdown: Gausman is in play as one of the better SP2 options on the main slate.

Sergio Romo
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,000 Salary: $8,000
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 21 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 3.60 3.56 26.3% 8.5% 37.2% 30.3% 22.8%
2018 2 3.19 4.34 31.0% 10.7% 32.6% 40.4% 17.0%
L14 2 2.57 0.00 34.8% 8.7% 53.8% 15.4% 15.4%

Sergio Romo is the starter in name once again, but he’s nowhere close to playable considering he’ll max out at 2 innings in this one. The real potential target here is Austin Pruitt, who is expected to come on in relief of Romo and log a few innings. Pruitt hasn’t shown much strikeout potential at the big league level, and he’s allowed plenty of hard contact. Pruitt pitched pretty well in a long relief stint in place of Jake Faria earlier this week, and he will have the platoon advantage against most of the O’s. Still, he’s nothing more than a low-owned GPP dart.

Quick Breakdown: Due to his lack of ownership, Pruitt is a viable long shot GPP play, but that’s it.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

These bullpen games are tricky from an opposing offense standpoint. The Rays are well aware of the O’s RH-heavy lineup, and they’re going to deploy as many solid right-handed arms as they possibly can. Austin Pruitt hasn’t been all that impressive at this level, but Tropicana Field is a park that swallows up power. I think you can be selective in taking a few Orioles hitters here, but I’m wary of a stack.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.397 0.422 0.116 37.6% 10.9% 21.7% 46.2% OF $3,400 1B/OF $3,400 IF/OF $6,700
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.363 0.372 0.230 38.2% 2.1% 20.8% 38.5% OF $3,500 OF $3,500 CF $6,500
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.398 0.433 0.287 31.8% 11.7% 16.9% 37.3% SS $4,900 SS $5,300 3B $9,700
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.239 0.262 0.212 23.4% 1.1% 25.8% 49.2% 2B $3,400 2B $3,800 2B $7,500
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.328 0.505 0.179 26.7% 7.0% 23.3% 43.3% 3B $2,800 3B $3,000 3B $6,000
6 Chris Davis LEFT 0.293 0.302 0.050 32.4% 9.2% 34.4% 48.6% 1B $2,800 1B $2,900 IF/OF $5,700
7 Joey Rickard RIGHT 0.455 0.323 0.571 33.3% 12.5% 12.5% 33.3% OF $2,700 OF $2,900 RF $5,900
8 Chance Sisco LEFT 0.270 0.322 0.118 31.8% 7.0% 37.2% 48.8% C $2,300 C $3,000 C $5,800
9 Craig Gentry RIGHT 0.216 0.334 0.053 9.4% 4.9% 17.1% 63.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,400 LF $5,000

Elite Plays – Manny Machado

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Adam Jones, Trey Mancini, Pedro Alvarez

Stackability – ORANGE

Tampa Bay

The Rays draw a mediocre matchup here against Kevin Gausman. Gausman does have a pretty stout reverse split in his career, and most of Tampa’s playable bats also happen to be righties. I’ll almost never stack the Rays at home, but you can pluck a few out here as GPP one-offs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brad Miller LEFT 0.351 0.330 0.180 41.3% 11.8% 26.5% 36.5% 1B $2,400 1B $3,200 2B $6,400
2 C.J. Cron RIGHT 0.335 0.337 0.208 36.6% 4.4% 24.8% 46.2% 1B $3,400 1B $4,200 1B $8,400
3 Joey Wendle LEFT 0.273 0.295 0.094 37.7% 6.0% 19.8% 49.4% 2B $2,400 2B $3,000 2B $6,000
4 Wilson Ramos RIGHT 0.311 0.283 0.151 41.1% 6.1% 20.2% 57.5% C $2,500 C $3,300 C $6,400
5 Matt Duffy RIGHT 0.309 0.366 0.146 30.9% 6.3% 22.9% 44.1% 3B $3,000 3B $3,200 3B $6,600
6 Mallex Smith LEFT 0.279 0.192 0.108 22.0% 9.4% 17.9% 41.8% OF $2,200 OF $3,500 CF $6,500
7 Daniel Robertson RIGHT 0.362 0.380 0.122 36.0% 16.5% 26.4% 48.0% SS $2,600 2B/SS $3,400 2B $6,500
8 Carlos Gomez RIGHT 0.284 0.238 0.125 32.4% 4.8% 27.9% 38.5% OF $2,000 OF $3,300 CF $6,400
9 Rob Refsnyder RIGHT 0.330 0.334 0.000 40.0% 18.2% 36.4% 80.0% OF $2,000 OF $2,500 IF/OF $5,100

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – C.J. Cron, Wilson Ramos

Stackability – ORANGE

Chicago White Sox at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Chicago White Sox Detroit
Article Image James Shields Article Image Blaine Hardy
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
DET-111 9.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.259 0.331 24.4% 14.6% 18.5% 47.1% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.308 0.290 26.7% 4.8% 19.1% 20.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.316 0.383 36.5% 6.0% 12.8% 35.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.377 0.292 37.0% 5.6% 19.4% 8.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Shields
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,200
Salary Rank: 20 of 29 Salary Rank: 19 of 29 Salary Rank: 16 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 21 4.94 5.23 20.0% 10.3% 38.2% 33.3% 19.3%
2018 10 5.19 4.62 15.6% 10.3% 40.7% 31.1% 15.0%
L14 3 4.41 3.54 20.5% 9.6% 46.4% 28.1% 10.5%

James Shields hasn’t been good this season, but we’re still waiting for him to have another meltdown start. It’s been a while. Shields has reached 6 innings in 6 consecutive starts and he’s given up more than 3 earned runs in just 2 of them. His strikeout rate is low (15.3%) and his walks have been high (10.3%). His SIERA and xFIP have both been over 5.00. He’s a fly ball pitcher facing a weak Tigers lineup, but I’m not sure there’s any matchup possible that would have me vouching for playing Shields.

Quick Breakdown: Shields doesn’t have the strikeout upside to offset any runs he concedes.

Blaine Hardy
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $5,500 Salary: $4,300 Salary: $8,600
Salary Rank: 25 of 29 Salary Rank: 22 of 29 Salary Rank: 18 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 0 4.66 5.94 18.0% 8.3% 33.0% 36.5% 20.0%
2018 2 4.87 3.46 19.3% 5.3% 12.5% 33.3% 16.7%
L14 2 4.93 3.09 19.2% 5.8% 11.1% 31.6% 18.4%

Blaine Hardy has appeared in 6 games this season, though just 2 as a starter. He’s given up 15 total hits in those 2 starts, but opposing offenses have scored just 4 runs against him. His upside is limited, as the Tigers haven’t let him throw more than 79 pitches in an outing so far. Hardy is a low-K guy facing a weak Chicago offense today, but there’s not enough upside here to really warrant serious consideration.

Quick Breakdown: Hardy has pitched pretty well, but he doesn’t go deep into games.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox aren’t a fun offense in general, but they do have some sneaky upside against left-handed pitching. Tim Anderson typically hits leadoff against southpaws, and he’s a cheap way to fill that shortstop position. Jose Abreu is an elite power bat, while Matt Davidson also has big pop if he’s able to get back into the lineup. Yoan Moncada has looked better hitting left-handed, but he’s still playable if you feel like stacking the Sox against Hardy.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Tim Anderson RIGHT 0.377 0.267 0.244 34.3% 6.3% 20.8% 40.0% SS $3,000 SS $3,200 SS $6,400
2 Yolmer Sanchez SWITCH 0.225 0.312 0.000 24.0% 7.0% 32.6% 72.0% 3B $2,900 3B $3,200 2B $6,600
3 Jose Abreu RIGHT 0.416 0.480 0.200 44.8% 2.3% 25.6% 44.8% 1B $3,800 1B $4,300 1B $8,200
4 Matt Davidson RIGHT 0.409 0.391 0.371 60.0% 18.2% 34.1% 45.0% 3B $3,500 1B/3B $3,500 3B $6,600
5 Jose Rondon RIGHT 0.131 0.314 0.000 33.3% 0.0% 40.0% 100.0% 2B $2,900 2B/SS $3,200 2B $6,700
6 Yoan Moncada SWITCH 0.264 0.288 0.077 45.8% 11.1% 35.6% 58.3% 2B $3,700 2B $4,200 2B $7,000
7 Omar Narvaez LEFT 0.231 0.319 0.000 20.0% 7.1% 21.4% 66.7% C $2,000 C $2,800 C $5,900
8 Adam Engel RIGHT 0.318 0.240 0.105 28.1% 7.1% 16.7% 33.3% OF $2,200 OF $2,900 CF $5,800
9 Trayce Thompson RIGHT 0.273 0.166 0.161 38.9% 3.1% 40.6% 38.9% OF $2,000 OF $2,700 CF $5,000

Elite Plays – Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, Matt Davidson

Secondary Plays – Yoan Moncada, Jose Rondon

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

James Shields has been pesky this season, but that’s still not enough to keep me from continuing to play hitters against him. Unfortunately, the Tigers have an even worse offense than the White Sox, so a full stack doesn’t really pass the eye test. Still, some of these guys are playable. Leonys Martin is cheap and typically hits high in the order against righties. Jeimer Candelario is a switch hitter that has shown good power against righties, too. You can play Victor Martinez, but prepare to be underwhelmed. Nick Castellanos is the best hitter on the team, so he’s playable despite not having the platoon advantage over Shields.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Leonys Martin LEFT 0.433 0.290 0.206 38.1% 7.8% 19.8% 32.9% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 CF $6,300
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.390 0.381 0.172 48.0% 4.9% 22.4% 35.3% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 IF/OF $7,600
3 Jeimer Candelario SWITCH 0.350 0.350 0.243 37.0% 10.7% 21.3% 44.4% 3B $3,300 3B $3,400 3B $6,500
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.373 0.359 0.113 49.0% 9.2% 10.0% 38.5% C $2,200 1B $3,100 1B $5,800
5 Niko Goodrum SWITCH 0.343 0.369 0.219 34.0% 7.6% 32.9% 51.1% OF $2,800 3B/OF $3,500 1B $6,600
6 John Hicks RIGHT 0.296 0.336 0.203 48.2% 2.5% 30.9% 36.5% C $2,800 1B/C $3,300 C $6,300
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.302 0.309 0.083 35.2% 5.9% 19.3% 38.6% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,800
8 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.252 0.316 0.091 23.0% 4.2% 14.1% 49.1% SS $2,700 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
9 JaCoby Jones RIGHT 0.342 0.249 0.190 36.0% 2.7% 27.7% 41.3% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 IF/OF $5,800

Elite Plays – Jeimer Candelario, Leonys Martin, Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Victor Martinez, John Hicks

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Houston at Cleveland – 1:10 PM ET

Houston Cleveland
Article Image Gerrit Cole Article Image Trevor Bauer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
HOU-125 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.226 0.215 27.5% 6.3% 48.2% 26.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.263 0.294 38.3% 7.8% 27.9% 45.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.239 0.293 38.8% 7.2% 33.8% 33.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.271 0.314 36.7% 9.1% 25.9% 48.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Gerrit Cole
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $11,200 Salary: $11,600 Salary: $22,500
Salary Rank: 2 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29 Salary Rank: 3 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 3.97 4.26 23.1% 6.5% 45.8% 31.3% 23.9%
2018 10 2.18 1.86 40.2% 6.8% 30.5% 34.4% 17.6%
L14 3 3.27 3.18 35.8% 11.9% 26.5% 42.9% 20.0%

Gerrit Cole has been on another planet this season. The right-hander has an absurd strikeout rate over 40%, which is the best mark in baseball among starters. He’s been allowing a decent amount of hard contact along with a high fly ball rate, but he’s been missing so many bats that it hasn’t really haunted him yet. Today’s matchup on the road in Cleveland leaves plenty to be desired, as the Indians have a deep offense and this is a friendly park for hitters. Cole may well still wind up being the highest-scoring pitcher on the slate, but he sure doesn’t come at any sort of a discount.

Quick Breakdown: Cole is an elite play, as always, but he’s not cheap, and the matchup isn’t ideal. This looks like a fine spot for a fade.

Trevor Bauer
Article Image FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,400 Salary: $10,600 Salary: $20,400
Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 5 of 29 Salary Rank: 4 of 29
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.80 4.19 26.2% 8.0% 46.4% 34.4% 15.0%
2018 10 3.56 2.35 26.8% 8.5% 47.1% 37.4% 17.0%
L14 3 3.33 1.93 24.1% 5.1% 48.2% 39.3% 14.3%

Trevor Bauer caught some heat for suggesting the Astros’ pitchers are cheating, so it’ll be fun to see him going up against Cole and the ‘Stros here today. Bauer, Cole’s former teammate at UCLA, is in the midst of a career year. The right-hander has a strikeout rate nearing 27% and he’s allowed just 3 home runs on the year. The hard contact (37.4%) is a bit high, and his SIERA is over a full run higher than his 2.35 ERA. Bauer has also been tough on righties, and we know the Astros have no shortage of those. Still, this is a risky spot against arguably the most loaded lineup in the majors.

Quick Breakdown: Bauer is capable of stifling anybody, but I’d rather avoid this spot against the Astros.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros face a tough matchup today against Trevor Bauer. Bauer has flashed big strikeout upside this season and he has kept the ball in the yard. He is prone to a blowup every now and again, and the Astros are the kind of offense you can always stack, even if it doesnt make a ton of sense. I’d rather play an Astro hitter or two as a one-off in lieu of a full stack, however. There are other offenses in better spots.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 George Springer RIGHT 0.356 0.329 0.144 33.0% 7.2% 17.8% 52.7% OF $4,400 OF $4,900 RF $9,000
2 Alex Bregman RIGHT 0.408 0.500 0.163 39.6% 13.8% 11.8% 40.5% 3B $4,100 3B $4,200 3B $8,400
3 Jose Altuve RIGHT 0.362 0.405 0.109 34.4% 6.9% 12.5% 44.8% 2B $4,100 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
4 Carlos Correa RIGHT 0.368 0.328 0.248 29.8% 10.3% 24.0% 46.8% SS $3,800 SS $4,400 SS $8,400
5 Marwin Gonzalez SWITCH 0.293 0.282 0.152 29.5% 12.2% 24.4% 43.2% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,600
6 Yuli Gurriel RIGHT 0.274 0.285 0.098 28.6% 4.0% 11.0% 53.6% 1B $2,600 1B $3,200 1B $6,400
7 Brian McCann LEFT 0.313 0.271 0.160 28.3% 9.4% 18.8% 15.0% C $2,200 C $3,200 C $6,300
8 Max Stassi RIGHT 0.249 0.426 0.175 21.7% 11.1% 37.8% 39.1% C $2,400 C $3,900 C $7,400
9 Tony Kemp LEFT 0.372 0.407 0.083 27.3% 7.1% 14.3% 45.5% OF $2,700 OF $3,700 IF/OF $7,500

Elite Plays – Jose Altuve (GPP), George Springer (GPP), Carlos Correa (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jose Altuve, George Springer, Carlos Correa (all cash)

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland

You can pretty much say the same thing about the Indians that I did about the Astros, only the Indians lack the overall quality of the Astros’ bats. This lineup is full of solid hitters, but Gerrit Cole isn’t a pitcher I’m willing to stack against. He’ll give up the occasional dinger, and just about anyone is playable in GPPs. Still, my interest in the Tribe is minimal.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Francisco Lindor SWITCH 0.419 0.436 0.298 38.5% 9.2% 21.3% 30.9% SS $4,100 SS $4,600 SS $9,200
2 Michael Brantley LEFT 0.416 0.444 0.253 38.6% 5.8% 8.7% 42.0% OF $3,700 OF $4,600 LF $9,300
3 Jose Ramirez SWITCH 0.399 0.403 0.345 28.0% 16.2% 9.6% 36.0% 3B $4,000 3B $5,200 IF/OF $9,700
4 Edwin Encarnacion RIGHT 0.356 0.395 0.224 37.0% 5.9% 28.8% 38.4% 1B $3,200 1B $3,600 1B $7,300
5 Yonder Alonso LEFT 0.373 0.373 0.200 38.1% 8.3% 22.3% 41.7% 1B $2,500 1B $3,500 1B $6,300
6 Melky Cabrera SWITCH 0.211 0.220 0.000 0.0% 16.7% 16.7% 50.0% OF $2,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,500
7 Jason Kipnis LEFT 0.337 0.424 0.040 36.7% 10.6% 19.1% 38.5% 2B $2,500 2B $3,100 2B $5,800
8 Roberto Perez RIGHT 0.247 0.257 0.106 38.5% 12.7% 40.0% 48.0% C $2,100 C $2,400 C $5,000
9 Greg Allen SWITCH 0.214 0.278 0.074 40.0% 6.9% 41.4% 58.3% OF $2,000 OF $2,900 CF $5,700

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

tcsmith031
Taylor Smith (tcsmith031)

Based in Southern California, Taylor Smith (aka tcsmith031) has been working for RotoGrinders since 2018 in a number of different capacities. In addition to contributing written content for NBA, MLB, and NFL, Taylor is also a member of the projections/alerts team and makes regular appearances as an analyst on NBA Crunch Time. Follow Taylor on Twitter – @TayeBojangles