MLB Grind Down: Sunday, September 17th - Page Two
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Stackability Rating System:
GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.
NY Mets at Atlanta – 1:35 PM ET
| NY Mets | Atlanta | ||||||||||||||
 | Robert Gsellman |  | Julio Teheran | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| NYM-110 | 8.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.355 | 0.336 | 32.7% | 9.3% | 15.7% | 46.6% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.335 | 0.353 | 37.2% | 12.1% | 17.2% | 38.7% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.354 | 0.333 | 31.6% | 5.7% | 14.1% | 53.4% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.291 | 24.7% | 4.6% | 20.5% | 38.7% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Robert Gsellman | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $5,900 | Salary: | $5,600 | Salary: | $11,100 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 25 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 25 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 7 | 3.76 | 2.42 | 22.7% | 8.1% | 54.2% | 28.4% | 18.1% | |
| 2017 | 18 | 4.83 | 5.44 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 50.4% | 32.1% | 19.4% | |
| L30 | 4 | 5.64 | 2.91 | 10.3% | 7.2% | 41.6% | 26.6% | 16.5% | |
The tanking Mets are just giving up on the season at this point, so why not throw Gsellman out there? With his 15% strikeout rate and 5.58 ERA, there is no reason for us to waste any time considering him for DFS purposes.
Quick Breakdown: If you are trying to score the fewest points in your contest today, you can throw Gsellman in there (well, you might want to use Dylan Covey in that format, but you get the picture).
| Julio Teheran | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $7,300 | Salary: | $14,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 12 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 10 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 30 | 3.93 | 3.21 | 22.0% | 5.4% | 39.1% | 33.1% | 17.7% | |
| 2017 | 28 | 4.90 | 4.77 | 18.6% | 8.8% | 38.7% | 31.6% | 20.8% | |
| L30 | 5 | 4.49 | 2.81 | 22.7% | 9.1% | 35.2% | 30.3% | 19.1% | |
It has been a rough year for Julio Teheran. After pitching to a sub-4.00 SIERA for his career, things have spiraled downhill in 2017. He has a SIERA of 4.89 this season, the new home park in Atlanta has not been kind to him, and his strikeout rate is down by about 4%. He is not a fantasy option at this point.
Quick Breakdown: Even in a favorable matchup against the Mets, Teheran can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
NY Mets
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Reyes | SWITCH | 0.286 | 0.282 | 0.139 | 26.4% | 8.7% | 13.2% | 38.3% | SS | $4,000 | 3B/SS | $4,400 | SS | $8,700 |
| 2 | Norichika Aoki | LEFT | 0.320 | 0.288 | 0.138 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 12.7% | 55.9% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 3 | Asdrubal Cabrera | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.334 | 0.174 | 37.6% | 9.7% | 16.4% | 41.1% | 3B | $3,700 | 2B/SS | $4,100 | SS | $8,000 |
| 4 | Brandon Nimmo | LEFT | 0.378 | 0.354 | 0.156 | 35.4% | 16.1% | 24.1% | 44.6% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,600 |
| 5 | Dominic Smith | LEFT | 0.290 | 0.296 | 0.200 | 36.2% | 5.3% | 22.1% | 53.6% | 1B | $3,300 | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $6,600 |
| 6 | Travis d’Arnaud | RIGHT | 0.259 | 0.293 | 0.149 | 34.0% | 4.0% | 14.9% | 40.5% | C | $2,700 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,800 |
| 7 | Amed Rosario | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.233 | 0.136 | 23.3% | 2.2% | 30.4% | 48.3% | SS | $3,000 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,600 |
| 8 | Juan Lagares | RIGHT | 0.307 | 0.254 | 0.137 | 27.6% | 5.0% | 19.3% | 52.0% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,400 |
| 9 | Robert Gsellman | RIGHT | 0.223 | 0.210 | 0.000 | 15.4% | 11.1% | 40.7% | 60.0% | P | $5,900 | P | $5,600 | P | $11,100 |
Teheran has struggled much more against left-handed hitters for his entire career. While his wOBA splits are relatively neutral this year, the batted ball profile still favors lefties. Teheran has held RHBs to a 24.6% hard contact rate, but that mark rises by a whopping 12% against lefties. Even though the Mets aren’t the greatest offense on the planet, you can find a one-off LHB for value here, or you could consider a mini-stack of LHBs. Brandon Nimmo and Dominic Smith are great options in the middle of the order when you consider their price tags.
Elite Plays – Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith
Secondary Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera
Stackability – YELLOW
Atlanta
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ender Inciarte | LEFT | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.112 | 24.1% | 6.6% | 14.4% | 42.4% | OF | $3,800 | OF | $3,700 | CF | $7,200 |
| 2 | Ozzie Albies | SWITCH | 0.305 | 0.285 | 0.119 | 33.0% | 7.4% | 19.0% | 43.0% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $3,600 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | LEFT | 0.443 | 0.434 | 0.309 | 37.6% | 14.6% | 15.0% | 34.4% | 1B | $4,100 | 1B/3B | $4,900 | 1B | $9,600 |
| 4 | Matt Kemp | RIGHT | 0.344 | 0.345 | 0.210 | 35.6% | 4.1% | 23.0% | 48.0% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $3,400 | LF | $6,600 |
| 5 | Nick Markakis | LEFT | 0.328 | 0.342 | 0.113 | 35.4% | 11.7% | 17.0% | 45.9% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $3,500 | RF | $6,800 |
| 6 | Kurt Suzuki | RIGHT | 0.320 | 0.315 | 0.186 | 31.9% | 5.3% | 14.0% | 36.1% | C | $3,400 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Dansby Swanson | RIGHT | 0.273 | 0.292 | 0.092 | 28.1% | 11.2% | 22.1% | 50.4% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $3,100 | SS | $6,000 |
| 8 | Rio Ruiz | LEFT | 0.242 | 0.314 | 0.088 | 28.4% | 8.8% | 25.4% | 64.9% | 3B | $2,100 | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $5,700 |
| 9 | Julio Teheran | RIGHT | 0.161 | 0.151 | 0.000 | 8.6% | 2.1% | 23.4% | 80.0% | P | $7,700 | P | $7,300 | P | $14,400 |
LHBs have posted a .359 wOBA against Gsellman this year. RHBs have posted a .359 wOBA against Gsellman this year. You can target anyone against him. I will stick to the top five or six in the order, as the Braves lineup does drop off at the bottom. There is stack potential here, as well.
Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman, Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte
Secondary Plays – Ozzie Albies, whoever starts at catcher
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Oakland at Philadelphia – 1:35 PM ET
| Oakland | Philadelphia | ||||||||||||||
 | Sean Manaea |  | Henderson Alvarez | ||||||||||||
| LEFT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| PHI-105 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.263 | 0.279 | 19.8% | 4.0% | 15.3% | 54.3% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | ||||||||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.343 | 0.340 | 37.4% | 9.1% | 21.7% | 41.1% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | ||||||||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Sean Manaea | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,200 | Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 24 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 20 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 24 | 4.04 | 3.86 | 20.9% | 6.2% | 44.2% | 33.6% | 18.4% | |
| 2017 | 26 | 4.51 | 4.33 | 20.4% | 8.1% | 44.0% | 33.5% | 15.2% | |
| L30 | 5 | 5.44 | 5.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 42.4% | 32.9% | 12.9% | |
Speaking of pitchers who have struggled this season, we can definitely throw Sean Manaea into that mix. He has thrown some good starts into the fold at times, but he has had two dreadful outings over the last five weeks — one in which he got just one out and gave up six runs (and that out was on an outfield assist at the plate), and another in which he gave up seven runs in 3 2/3 innings. He just hasn’t developed that consistency, and as such he is not a cash game option. With a 20% strikeout rate on the year, there’s not much in the way of GPP upside, either. I’ll pass.
Quick Breakdown: The risk outweighs the reward with Manaea in all formats.
| Henderson Alvarez | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | Salary: | $4,800 | Salary: | $9,600 | |||||
| Salary Rank: | of 29 | Salary Rank: | 29 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 27 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alvarez has thrown just 52 total innings at the minor league level over the last two seasons and has not appeared in the major leagues since posting a 6.45 ERA in four starts for the Marlins back in 2015. It’s a cool story to see him back in the big leagues, but he is not an option for fantasy purposes.
Quick Breakdown: Alvarez can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Oakland
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcus Semien | RIGHT | 0.333 | 0.309 | 0.147 | 24.3% | 11.4% | 22.7% | 38.5% | SS | $3,700 | SS | $4,200 | SS | $8,100 |
| 2 | Matt Joyce | LEFT | 0.361 | 0.372 | 0.261 | 32.7% | 13.9% | 20.6% | 33.5% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,600 | RF | $9,000 |
| 3 | Jed Lowrie | SWITCH | 0.346 | 0.368 | 0.172 | 36.3% | 10.5% | 14.8% | 26.7% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $4,100 | 2B | $8,000 |
| 4 | Khris Davis | RIGHT | 0.373 | 0.381 | 0.306 | 41.2% | 10.3% | 31.2% | 39.3% | OF | $4,200 | OF | $4,300 | LF | $8,400 |
| 5 | Matt Olson | LEFT | 0.411 | 0.380 | 0.373 | 43.2% | 9.0% | 27.8% | 36.7% | 1B | $4,200 | 1B/OF | $4,800 | LF | $9,200 |
| 6 | Ryon Healy | RIGHT | 0.301 | 0.308 | 0.173 | 35.3% | 3.5% | 24.9% | 44.5% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B/3B | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Bruce Maxwell | LEFT | 0.322 | 0.324 | 0.122 | 37.9% | 13.2% | 23.1% | 45.7% | C | $2,900 | C | $2,900 | C | $5,700 |
| 8 | Boog Powell | LEFT | 0.337 | 0.275 | 0.121 | 24.0% | 9.8% | 23.2% | 45.2% | OF | $2,800 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,800 |
| 9 | Sean Manaea | LEFT | 0.347 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0% | P | $6,200 | P | $6,300 | P | $12,600 |
We don’t have much for data on Alvarez given his limited performances over the past few seasons, but left-handed power would seemingly be the way to go here. That gives Matt Olson and Matt Joyce a leg up in terms of options, but a stack is certainly in play against a pitcher who could very easily struggle in his return to the big leagues.
Elite Plays – Matt Olson, Matt Joyce
Secondary Plays – Khris Davis, Jed Lowrie
Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN
Philadelphia
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Odubel Herrera | LEFT | 0.371 | 0.338 | 0.209 | 36.7% | 3.7% | 22.8% | 49.5% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $4,000 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 2 | Freddy Galvis | SWITCH | 0.277 | 0.265 | 0.107 | 22.8% | 3.4% | 11.4% | 39.5% | SS | $3,200 | SS | $3,000 | SS | $6,000 |
| 3 | Aaron Altherr | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.318 | 0.267 | 38.9% | 10.0% | 18.0% | 47.2% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,900 | LF | $7,800 |
| 4 | Rhys Hoskins | RIGHT | 0.553 | 0.557 | 0.750 | 52.6% | 26.5% | 14.7% | 21.1% | OF | $4,500 | 1B/OF | $5,400 | 1B | $10,500 |
| 5 | Nick Williams | LEFT | 0.357 | 0.282 | 0.183 | 21.4% | 4.6% | 27.7% | 57.1% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 6 | Maikel Franco | RIGHT | 0.279 | 0.291 | 0.177 | 34.6% | 8.3% | 14.6% | 49.1% | 3B | $2,900 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,900 |
| 7 | Jorge Alfaro | RIGHT | 0.228 | 0.258 | 0.053 | 7.7% | 9.5% | 28.6% | 53.8% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
| 8 | J.P. Crawford | LEFT | 0.292 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 0.0% | SS | $2,400 | 3B/SS | $2,700 | SS | $5,200 | |
| 9 | Henderson Alvarez | RIGHT | P | $4,800 | P | $9,600 |
Manaea is good enough to where he is not a pitcher you generally want to try and pick one-off hitters against, but his inconsistency and early inning struggles do make a stack a reasonable option. Manaea has been very good against left-handed bats, so you can ignore Odubel Herrera and Nick Williams. The righties are the preferred plays, as RHBs have posted a .353 wOBA against Manaea this year. The return of Aaron Altherr should provide some nice protection for budding star Rhys Hoskins.
Elite Plays – Aaron Altherr, Rhys Hoskins
Secondary Plays – Maikel Franco
Stackability – YELLOW
Milwaukee at Miami – 2:10 PM ET
| Milwaukee | Miami | ||||||||||||||
 | Brandon Woodruff |  | Dillon Peters | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | LEFT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| MIL-140 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.310 | 35.7% | 10.5% | 15.8% | 37.0% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% | |||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.209 | 0.277 | 29.7% | 8.6% | 24.1% | 62.2% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.291 | 0.284 | 19.2% | 11.4% | 29.6% | 65.4% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Brandon Woodruff | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $6,700 | Salary: | $13,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 15 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 13 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 4 | 4.50 | 1.52 | 20.8% | 9.4% | 51.6% | 32.3% | 21.5% | |
| L30 | 2 | 3.53 | 1.54 | 26.7% | 8.9% | 63.0% | 42.9% | 17.9% | |
Woodruff is a decent young pitcher with a potential future as a solid middle of the rotation starter, and he does get a nice benefit of being able to pitch at home in this game. Remember, this series has been relocated to Milwaukee even though the Brewers are the “road” team. While the future potential is there, he really doesn’t bring a ton of upside to the table. His strikeout rate of 19% is below league average, and his overall profile is middling at best. I’m not that interested against a dangerous Marlins offense that carries some thump in the middle of the order.
Quick Breakdown: Woodruff can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Dillon Peters | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,100 | Salary: | $6,400 | Salary: | $12,600 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 18 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 16 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2 | 3.25 | 2.25 | 29.8% | 10.6% | 67.9% | 17.9% | 32.1% | |
| L30 | 2 | 3.25 | 2.25 | 29.8% | 10.6% | 67.9% | 17.9% | 32.1% | |
Peters carries about the same future potential that Woodruff does — as a middle to back-end starter who can help eat innings. He doesn’t possess a ton of upside potential, and I am not going to be using him on my DFS rosters today in his fourth major league start. Don’t be fooled by his solid surface numbers, as those are a product of sample size and a dominant first start. There is no reason to take the risk here, despite Milwaukee’s high team strikeout rate.
Quick Breakdown: Peters can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Milwaukee
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hernan Perez | RIGHT | 0.370 | 0.295 | 0.161 | 33.8% | 4.1% | 19.6% | 50.0% | OF | $2,900 | 3B/OF | $4,100 | IF/OF | $8,100 |
| 2 | Domingo Santana | RIGHT | 0.368 | 0.367 | 0.211 | 39.0% | 14.2% | 24.6% | 50.0% | OF | $3,200 | OF | $3,800 | RF | $7,500 |
| 3 | Ryan Braun | RIGHT | 0.351 | 0.433 | 0.217 | 50.8% | 14.5% | 9.6% | 44.4% | OF | $3,500 | OF | $3,700 | LF | $7,200 |
| 4 | Travis Shaw | LEFT | 0.331 | 0.268 | 0.217 | 26.8% | 7.1% | 26.8% | 42.0% | 3B | $3,100 | 3B | $4,100 | 3B | $8,100 |
| 5 | Jesus Aguilar | RIGHT | 0.375 | 0.332 | 0.216 | 50.0% | 10.1% | 29.3% | 41.7% | 1B | $2,300 | 1B | $4,300 | 1B | $8,400 |
| 6 | Manny Pina | RIGHT | 0.330 | 0.326 | 0.098 | 43.6% | 4.4% | 23.3% | 33.9% | C | $2,600 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,400 |
| 7 | Keon Broxton | RIGHT | 0.338 | 0.325 | 0.239 | 35.2% | 12.9% | 33.7% | 41.5% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $3,100 | CF | $6,000 |
| 8 | Orlando Arcia | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.277 | 0.069 | 28.4% | 10.6% | 17.7% | 48.8% | SS | $2,500 | SS | $3,300 | SS | $6,400 |
| 9 | Brandon Woodruff | RIGHT | P | $6,400 | P | $6,700 | P | $13,200 |
While I probably won’t stack against Peters, that doesn’t mean that we can’t find a play or two from the Milwaukee side. The RHBs for the Brewers are strong plays, and Ryan Braun is the best option. I touched on his career splits against LHP in yesterday’s article, and he did hit a home run in that game. I like his odds to keep the good times rolling today.
Elite Plays – Hernan Perez, Ryan Braun
Secondary Plays – Domingo Santana, Manny Pina
Stackability – YELLOW
Miami
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dee Gordon | LEFT | 0.317 | 0.259 | 0.076 | 18.1% | 5.2% | 14.1% | 54.6% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $3,700 | 2B | $7,200 |
| 2 | Giancarlo Stanton | RIGHT | 0.397 | 0.385 | 0.337 | 37.3% | 10.6% | 26.4% | 42.5% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $5,300 | RF | $10,400 |
| 3 | Christian Yelich | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.367 | 0.169 | 37.9% | 12.5% | 19.4% | 55.0% | OF | $3,900 | OF | $3,900 | CF | $7,600 |
| 4 | Marcell Ozuna | RIGHT | 0.390 | 0.364 | 0.263 | 40.6% | 9.1% | 22.4% | 44.6% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $4,400 | LF | $8,700 |
| 5 | J.T. Realmuto | RIGHT | 0.318 | 0.323 | 0.159 | 32.0% | 5.0% | 18.1% | 49.7% | C | $3,200 | C | $4,000 | C | $7,600 |
| 6 | Justin Bour | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.392 | 0.245 | 45.9% | 11.3% | 21.5% | 39.9% | 1B | $3,400 | 1B | $4,100 | 1B | $8,100 |
| 7 | Brian Anderson | RIGHT | 0.255 | 0.245 | 0.045 | 33.3% | 15.4% | 26.9% | 66.7% | 3B | $2,000 | 3B | $2,500 | 3B | $4,800 |
| 8 | Miguel Rojas | RIGHT | 0.283 | 0.294 | 0.031 | 18.9% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 52.5% | SS | $2,600 | SS | $2,900 | 2B | $5,700 |
| 9 | Dillon Peters | LEFT | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% | P | $7,100 | P | $6,400 | P | $12,600 |
I am really pretty much neutral on this game as a whole. Woodruff is also not a guy that I would look to stack against, as he has shown strong ground ball skills and does not seem to get blown up. The power hitters obviously have upside, but there are better options on a slate that features tons of offense.
Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton
Secondary Plays – Christian Yelich, J.T. Realmuto, Marcell Ozuna
Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE
Seattle at Houston – 2:10 PM ET
| Seattle | Houston | ||||||||||||||
 | Andrew Moore |  | Justin Verlander | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| HOU-200 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.350 | 0.375 | 31.3% | 2.6% | 10.4% | 16.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.313 | 0.324 | 35.4% | 11.5% | 25.4% | 31.9% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.332 | 0.362 | 35.6% | 4.6% | 11.1% | 34.8% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.285 | 0.313 | 35.9% | 6.7% | 23.3% | 35.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Andrew Moore | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,600 | Salary: | $5,700 | Salary: | $11,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 20 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 22 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 7 | 5.84 | 5.89 | 10.8% | 3.8% | 26.9% | 33.8% | 14.7% | |
| L30 | 1 | 6.10 | 3.00 | 13.0% | 8.7% | 27.8% | 22.2% | 27.8% | |
Moore has an ugly 5.37 SIERA and a minuscule 13% strikeout rate since being called up to the major leagues, and he has never shown massive strikeout ability in the minors. He is nowhere near the fantasy radar in a tough road matchup against the Astros, despite the fact that the Astros have not been the same offense over the last month and a half.
Quick Breakdown: Moore can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Justin Verlander | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $10,400 | Salary: | $11,900 | Salary: | $23,200 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 3 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 3 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 2 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 34 | 3.42 | 3.04 | 28.1% | 6.3% | 33.7% | 28.9% | 19.7% | |
| 2017 | 29 | 4.28 | 3.74 | 24.3% | 9.0% | 33.7% | 35.7% | 17.8% | |
| L30 | 5 | 2.82 | 2.73 | 32.5% | 4.0% | 35.4% | 37.5% | 20.0% | |
What has gotten in to Justin Verlander? He has looked like a new pitcher again over the last month. Over his last five starts with Detroit and Houston, Verlander has posted a 42/6 K/BB ratio, and he has allowed two or fewer runs in all of those starts. While I generally don’t go out of my way to target pitchers against Seattle, it is impossible to deny what Verlander has been doing. He has always been a streaky pitcher, so ride the hot wave while it lasts.
Quick Breakdown: Verlander is the #2 overall pitching option on today’s slate, behind only Corey Kluber.
Batter Grind Down
Seattle
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jean Segura | RIGHT | 0.334 | 0.298 | 0.141 | 25.7% | 4.3% | 15.3% | 55.0% | SS | $3,800 | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 |
| 2 | Mitch Haniger | RIGHT | 0.361 | 0.314 | 0.188 | 37.1% | 9.2% | 24.0% | 43.3% | OF | $3,000 | OF | $4,000 | LF | $7,800 |
| 3 | Robinson Cano | LEFT | 0.372 | 0.392 | 0.215 | 39.0% | 8.5% | 10.3% | 49.2% | 2B | $3,200 | 2B | $4,400 | 2B | $8,400 |
| 4 | Nelson Cruz | RIGHT | 0.382 | 0.376 | 0.270 | 38.2% | 7.7% | 22.1% | 40.3% | OF | $3,700 | OF | $4,300 | RF | $8,400 |
| 5 | Kyle Seager | LEFT | 0.326 | 0.366 | 0.191 | 37.9% | 9.1% | 15.5% | 30.6% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B | $3,500 | 3B | $6,800 |
| 6 | Yonder Alonso | LEFT | 0.375 | 0.379 | 0.233 | 35.5% | 14.2% | 23.0% | 32.3% | 1B | $2,800 | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $6,400 |
| 7 | Mike Zunino | RIGHT | 0.336 | 0.306 | 0.244 | 36.9% | 8.1% | 38.6% | 34.2% | C | $2,800 | C | $3,300 | C | $6,600 |
| 8 | Ben Gamel | LEFT | 0.315 | 0.295 | 0.125 | 28.2% | 7.9% | 20.5% | 44.1% | OF | $2,400 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,300 |
| 9 | Guillermo Heredia | SWITCH | 0.274 | 0.260 | 0.078 | 15.6% | 5.9% | 15.6% | 49.2% | OF | $2,100 | OF | $2,300 | LF | $4,400 |
With Verlander pitching extremely well right now, I will not be going out of my way to target any hitters against him. I suppose you could try to pluck out a left-handed power bat, but even that feels like a reach at this point. There are better ways to go on today’s slate.
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano
Stackability – ORANGE
Houston
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | George Springer | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.367 | 0.237 | 37.9% | 9.0% | 20.5% | 48.9% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,900 | RF | $9,600 |
| 2 | Josh Reddick | LEFT | 0.365 | 0.330 | 0.197 | 32.2% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 34.0% | OF | $3,400 | OF | $4,500 | RF | $8,800 |
| 3 | Jose Altuve | RIGHT | 0.416 | 0.362 | 0.213 | 28.4% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 45.7% | 2B | $3,900 | 2B | $5,300 | 2B | $10,400 |
| 4 | Carlos Correa | RIGHT | 0.372 | 0.385 | 0.227 | 38.5% | 11.3% | 21.3% | 46.9% | SS | $3,400 | SS | $4,300 | SS | $8,400 |
| 5 | Marwin Gonzalez | SWITCH | 0.396 | 0.335 | 0.238 | 37.3% | 9.7% | 20.3% | 42.5% | SS | $2,800 | OF/SS | $3,800 | IF/OF | $7,600 |
| 6 | Alex Bregman | RIGHT | 0.329 | 0.328 | 0.176 | 32.1% | 8.1% | 16.3% | 41.7% | 3B | $3,400 | 3B/SS | $3,900 | 3B | $7,600 |
| 7 | Carlos Beltran | SWITCH | 0.310 | 0.299 | 0.185 | 32.9% | 7.5% | 18.4% | 42.7% | OF | $2,000 | OF | $3,300 | IF/OF | $6,600 |
| 8 | Yuli Gurriel | RIGHT | 0.348 | 0.327 | 0.204 | 33.2% | 2.8% | 9.5% | 45.1% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,800 |
| 9 | Brian McCann | LEFT | 0.312 | 0.324 | 0.165 | 34.4% | 10.1% | 15.1% | 40.6% | C | $2,900 | C | $3,600 | C | $7,200 |
While this has not been the same offensive group since the All Star break, a lot of that was due to injuries. The Astros are finally healthy again, and they are slowly warming up with three straight wins and some solid offensive performances. Houston can clinch the AL West with a victory today, and their lineup matches up well with Andrew Moore. They have a high implied team total of 5.4 runs, and they are one of my favorite offenses to target this afternoon. Hitters from both sides of the plate are in play. RHBs have notched more hard contact against Moore, but his ground ball rate sits at just 19% against LHBs. A full stack is also in play.
Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve, Josh Reddick
Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Marwin Gonzalez
Stackability – GREEN
Toronto at Minnesota – 2:10 PM ET
| Toronto | Minnesota | ||||||||||||||
 | Joe Biagini |  | Kyle Gibson | ||||||||||||
| RIGHT | RIGHT | ||||||||||||||
| Vegas Moneyline | Vegas Over/Under | ||||||||||||||
| MIN-125 | 9.5 | ||||||||||||||
| Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | Stats | wOBA | xwOBA | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.333 | 0.285 | 33.3% | 7.6% | 22.3% | 52.4% | SP vs. Left (2016-17) | 0.371 | 0.332 | 34.1% | 8.6% | 14.9% | 46.5% | ||
| SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.311 | 0.293 | 28.7% | 8.7% | 19.0% | 60.3% | SP vs. Right (2016-17) | 0.349 | 0.372 | 37.6% | 9.0% | 16.7% | 57.3% | ||
Pitcher Grind Down
| Joe Biagini | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $6,300 | Salary: | $5,300 | Salary: | $10,400 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 23 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 28 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 26 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 0 | 3.45 | 3.06 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 52.2% | 23.0% | 17.7% | |
| 2017 | 14 | 4.06 | 5.29 | 20.4% | 8.2% | 57.0% | 30.7% | 17.4% | |
| L30 | 3 | 4.00 | 6.43 | 23.2% | 10.1% | 58.7% | 28.3% | 10.9% | |
Biagini may have a bright future, but he has struggled to put it all together at the major league level. Despite his cheap price tag, he is not a DFS option against a Twins team that has some of the best overall offensive numbers in baseball in the second half.
Quick Breakdown: Biagini can safely be avoided in all formats.
| Kyle Gibson | |||||||||
 | FanDuel | DraftKings | FantasyDraft | ||||||
| Salary: | $7,700 | Salary: | $8,300 | Salary: | $16,000 | ||||
| Salary Rank: | 11 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 9 of 29 | Salary Rank: | 8 of 29 | ||||
| Stats | Starts | SIERA | ERA | K% | BB% | GB% | HC% | SC% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 25 | 4.73 | 5.07 | 15.9% | 8.4% | 48.8% | 31.0% | 18.6% | |
| 2017 | 25 | 4.84 | 5.19 | 15.8% | 8.8% | 51.8% | 35.8% | 14.9% | |
| L30 | 5 | 3.78 | 2.35 | 18.3% | 3.2% | 50.5% | 31.3% | 15.6% | |
The Blue Jays may not carry the dangerous offense that they have over the past few seasons, but that is not enough to turn Kyle Gibson into a DFS option. He has an ERA and SIERA near 5.00 this year, a low strikeout rate, and a 35% hard contact rate allowed. His walks are also trending in the wrong direction this year. Avoid.
Quick Breakdown: Gibson can safely be avoided in all formats.
Batter Grind Down
Toronto
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Urena | SWITCH | 0.353 | 0.304 | 0.250 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 22.2% | 63.6% | SS | $3,600 | SS | $7,200 | ||
| 2 | Josh Donaldson | RIGHT | 0.384 | 0.377 | 0.265 | 33.0% | 15.8% | 23.8% | 41.2% | 3B | $3,700 | 3B | $4,800 | 3B | $9,300 |
| 3 | Justin Smoak | SWITCH | 0.362 | 0.384 | 0.277 | 40.7% | 10.2% | 22.7% | 34.2% | 1B | $2,900 | 1B | $4,600 | 1B | $9,000 |
| 4 | Jose Bautista | RIGHT | 0.314 | 0.325 | 0.184 | 35.0% | 13.1% | 23.8% | 35.0% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $4,100 | RF | $8,000 |
| 5 | Kendrys Morales | SWITCH | 0.295 | 0.355 | 0.197 | 36.6% | 7.0% | 22.0% | 47.7% | 1B | $3,200 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 6 | Kevin Pillar | RIGHT | 0.277 | 0.295 | 0.128 | 26.3% | 4.7% | 15.2% | 45.2% | OF | $3,100 | OF | $3,500 | CF | $6,900 |
| 7 | Russell Martin | RIGHT | 0.341 | 0.333 | 0.167 | 27.7% | 14.3% | 22.1% | 53.5% | C | $2,500 | C | $3,200 | C | $6,400 |
| 8 | Ryan Goins | LEFT | 0.271 | 0.275 | 0.118 | 29.4% | 7.2% | 18.6% | 46.1% | SS | $2,100 | 2B/SS | $3,000 | 2B | $6,000 |
| 9 | Teoscar Hernandez | RIGHT | 0.487 | 0.340 | 0.421 | 23.1% | 5.0% | 30.0% | 38.5% | OF | $2,800 | CF | $5,600 |
Kyle Gibson gets by with a solid ground ball rate, but his ground ball rate dips by 10% against LHBs, and he has allowed a .364 wOBA to lefties this year. The two first basemen are elite plays here, with price being the determining factor for me. Justin Smoak remains ridiculously cheap on FanDuel. I don’t love the way this lineup matches up with Gibson, so I will probably avoid the full stack here.
Elite Plays – Justin Smoak (especially on FD), Kendrys Morales (preferred on DK), Richard Urena
Secondary Plays – Josh Donaldson
Stackability – YELLOW / ORANGE
Minnesota
Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)
| # | Player | Bats | wOBA | xwOBA | ISO | HC% | BB% | K% | GB% | FD Pos. | FD Sal. | DK Pos. | DK Sal. | FDRFT Pos. | FDRFT Sal. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Dozier | RIGHT | 0.324 | 0.313 | 0.199 | 32.7% | 9.7% | 20.8% | 39.6% | 2B | $4,000 | 2B | $5,400 | 2B | $10,500 |
| 2 | Joe Mauer | LEFT | 0.354 | 0.389 | 0.124 | 39.9% | 12.5% | 13.5% | 50.0% | 1B | $3,500 | 1B | $3,900 | 1B | $7,600 |
| 3 | Jorge Polanco | SWITCH | 0.317 | 0.290 | 0.160 | 26.9% | 9.1% | 15.0% | 39.4% | SS | $3,500 | SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,600 |
| 4 | Eddie Rosario | LEFT | 0.362 | 0.336 | 0.236 | 32.1% | 7.1% | 17.4% | 39.0% | OF | $4,000 | OF | $4,600 | LF | $9,000 |
| 5 | Byron Buxton | RIGHT | 0.290 | 0.259 | 0.159 | 26.3% | 5.7% | 30.7% | 42.2% | OF | $3,300 | OF | $5,000 | CF | $9,600 |
| 6 | Max Kepler | LEFT | 0.358 | 0.327 | 0.222 | 36.5% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 41.8% | OF | $2,600 | OF | $3,200 | RF | $6,300 |
| 7 | Eduardo Escobar | SWITCH | 0.320 | 0.312 | 0.205 | 32.5% | 6.1% | 19.5% | 34.7% | 3B | $3,000 | 3B/SS | $4,000 | SS | $7,800 |
| 8 | Jason Castro | LEFT | 0.301 | 0.315 | 0.147 | 35.3% | 12.6% | 29.7% | 39.5% | C | $2,300 | C | $3,400 | C | $6,600 |
| 9 | Robbie Grossman | SWITCH | 0.343 | 0.347 | 0.174 | 30.4% | 13.9% | 19.0% | 41.0% | OF | $2,900 | OF | $3,600 | LF | $7,200 |
The overall profile for Biagini is eerily similar to that of Kyle Gibson. He gets a fair number of ground balls and isn’t the best pitcher on the slate to stack against. I don’t mind a one-off power bat from the middle of the order here, but I will look elsewhere for full stacks. Biagini’s profile slightly favors LHBs, so they get the nod in a tiebreaking scenario.