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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 21st

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-06-23 06:15:56

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Seattle at NY Yankees – 1:05 PM ET

Seattle NY Yankees
seattlemlb James Paxton nyyankeesmlb Luis Severino
LEFT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
NYY-200 7.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.422 0.329 31.8% 8.2% 30.1% 43.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.244 0.298 35.9% 10.5% 34.3% 45.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.233 0.294 36.1% 6.8% 31.4% 35.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.228 0.279 30.0% 4.2% 28.8% 45.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

James Paxton
james-paxton-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,800 Salary: $8,300 Salary:
Salary Rank: 3 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 24 3.45 2.98 28.3% 6.7% 44.9% 30.3% 18.0%
2018 15 3.02 3.44 31.2% 7.1% 37.3% 35.2% 18.9%
L14 3 2.76 4.76 27.8% 2.8% 48.0% 48.0% 20.0%

There are three early games on the schedule today. DraftKings has all three included in their early slate, while FanDuel only has the first two. We start with the Mariners and Yankees in a game that features two elite arms. In 15 starts this season, Paxton owns a 3.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. The best way to attack the Yankees’ lineup is with a high strikeout pitcher and Paxton certainly fits the mold. While there is still some risk with all of this right-handed power in New York’s lineup, Paxton is an excellent tournament play in the early slate.

Quick Breakdown: I prefer Severino over Paxton here, but he’s still a solid tournament play.

Luis Severino
luis-severino-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,800 Salary: $12,000 Salary:
Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank: 2 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 3.25 2.98 29.4% 6.5% 50.6% 28.5% 19.4%
2018 15 2.93 2.09 30.8% 6.5% 45.8% 31.9% 22.7%
L14 3 2.61 1.29 32.9% 5.1% 40.4% 27.1% 25.0%

Severino is the clear number one pitching option in the early slate. He’s having another outstanding season for the Yankees, posting a 2.93 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 31%. He has good control, he limits hard contact, and he can pitch deep into games. While his matchup against the Mariners is far from perfect, we’ve seen him pitch well against some of the best offenses in baseball this season. The fact that he’s a -200 favorite over a pitcher the caliber of Paxton says a lot.

Quick Breakdown: Severino is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Seattle

The Mariners are playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark, but have one of the worst possible matchups. Luis Severino has an elite strikeout rate, he induces ground balls, and he limits hard contact. On the season, he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .300 xwOBA. I know we are working with limited options in the early slate, but the Mariners are a full fade in my eyes, even in tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Dee Gordon LEFT 0.274 0.200 0.070 17.2% 1.7% 16.7% 53.7% 2B $3,300 2B/OF $3,600 N/A N/A
2 Jean Segura RIGHT 0.338 0.297 0.149 30.7% 3.7% 12.6% 54.5% SS $4,000 SS $4,300 N/A N/A
3 Mitch Haniger RIGHT 0.421 0.379 0.272 41.4% 11.8% 23.7% 41.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
4 Nelson Cruz RIGHT 0.391 0.488 0.215 37.9% 6.3% 19.3% 46.8% OF $4,100 OF $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Kyle Seager LEFT 0.341 0.322 0.196 41.5% 5.6% 19.0% 36.1% 3B $2,900 3B $3,300 N/A N/A
6 Denard Span LEFT 0.365 0.400 0.171 35.2% 14.5% 12.7% 38.8% OF $2,900 OF $3,600 N/A N/A
7 Ryon Healy RIGHT 0.366 0.378 0.216 39.1% 3.3% 21.6% 42.1% 1B $3,000 1B $3,500 N/A N/A
8 Ben Gamel LEFT 0.357 0.386 0.107 25.9% 10.3% 18.8% 40.7% OF $2,200 OF $3,300 N/A N/A
9 Mike Zunino RIGHT 0.355 0.323 0.272 44.8% 4.1% 38.2% 40.3% C $2,400 C $3,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.356 0.353 0.185 34.9% 6.8% 20.3% 43.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

NY Yankees

As far as their matchup goes, the Yankees aren’t much better off than the Mariners. James Paxton has an elite strikeout rate and has held right-handed hitters to a .294 xwOBA this season. In a larger slate, I would avoid the Yankees completely, but we might have to play a hitter or two in the FanDuel early slate. While the matchup isn’t ideal, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, and Gleyber Torres all boast a .400+ xwOBA against southpaws this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Aaron Hicks SWITCH 0.438 0.392 0.259 48.9% 12.7% 15.9% 29.5% OF $4,000 OF $4,100 N/A N/A
2 Aaron Judge RIGHT 0.425 0.359 0.206 47.2% 21.0% 33.3% 36.1% OF $4,700 OF $5,400 N/A N/A
3 Giancarlo Stanton RIGHT 0.485 0.321 0.446 60.4% 8.2% 26.0% 33.3% OF $4,600 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
4 Didi Gregorius LEFT 0.270 0.368 0.129 24.1% 8.8% 11.8% 46.2% SS $3,800 SS $4,400 N/A N/A
5 Gary Sanchez RIGHT 0.432 0.245 0.347 30.6% 19.7% 21.3% 38.9% C $3,500 C $3,800 N/A N/A
6 Gleyber Torres RIGHT 0.401 0.340 0.318 50.0% 8.3% 25.0% 28.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,100 N/A N/A
7 Greg Bird LEFT 0.330 0.301 0.000 66.7% 22.2% 33.3% 66.7% 1B $2,800 1B $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Miguel Andujar RIGHT 0.319 0.382 0.233 34.7% 4.6% 18.5% 49.0% 3B $3,600 3B $3,800 N/A N/A
9 Clint Frazier RIGHT 0.693 0.273 0.000 0.0% 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% OF $3,300 OF $3,700 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.421 0.331 0.215 40.3% 22.8% 20.6% 36.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Boston at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Boston Minnesota
bostonmlb Rick Porcello minnesotamlb Kyle Gibson
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BOS-118 8.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.313 0.326 38.4% 6.1% 25.5% 35.8% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.279 0.316 39.8% 9.9% 23.4% 46.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.273 0.280 23.1% 4.9% 20.8% 56.3% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.278 0.319 36.4% 11.0% 24.0% 52.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Rick Porcello
rick-porcello-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,800 Salary: $9,400 Salary:
Salary Rank: 5 of 20 Salary Rank: 4 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 33 4.28 4.65 20.5% 5.4% 39.2% 38.3% 17.1%
2018 15 3.58 3.70 22.8% 5.4% 48.0% 29.4% 23.5%
L14 3 3.84 3.93 22.9% 7.2% 43.4% 34.6% 27.3%

Porcello isn’t an elite pitcher, but he’s always steady. In 15 starts this season, he owns a 3.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23%. He has good control, he keeps the ball on the ground, and he limits hard contact. While the Twins have struggled against southpaws all year, they have quietly hit right-handed pitching well. Their projected lineup has a .343 xwOBA, a 40% hard contact rate, and a 19% strikeout rate against righties this season.

Quick Breakdown: If you can make the salaries work with Severino, Porcello is viable as an SP2.

Kyle Gibson
kyle-gibson-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $5,900 Salary:
Salary Rank: 8 of 20 Salary Rank: 17 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 29 4.67 5.07 17.5% 8.7% 50.8% 35.8% 15.4%
2018 14 4.08 3.27 23.8% 10.6% 49.8% 37.8% 18.5%
L14 3 4.22 2.29 20.0% 10.7% 61.5% 46.2% 17.3%

Gibson would typically be an easy fade in all formats, but he may have some appeal as an SP2 in the three-game early slate on DraftKings thanks to his price point ($5,900). While not great, he’s had a better season overall, posting a 4.08 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 50%. I hate targeting pitchers against the Red Sox, but at least their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 20% against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Gibson is the preferred play in the early slate, but he’s viable in tournaments as an SP2.

Batter Grind Down

Boston

The Red Sox are an offense that we can load up on in the two-game slate on FanDuel, but my goal is to get as much exposure to the game in Coors Field on DraftKings. Boston’s matchup against Kyle Gibson sounds great, but he’s actually held both left and right-handed hitters under a .320 xwOBA this season. Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Mitch Moreland all boast a .375+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching, but none really stand out as core plays in this matchup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Mookie Betts RIGHT 0.506 0.391 0.346 48.1% 11.8% 14.0% 30.2% OF $5,000 OF $5,900 N/A N/A
2 Andrew Benintendi LEFT 0.399 0.438 0.256 27.9% 13.6% 13.2% 34.9% OF $4,500 OF $5,200 N/A N/A
3 Xander Bogaerts RIGHT 0.377 0.363 0.246 39.1% 4.8% 18.8% 44.5% SS $4,100 SS $4,400 N/A N/A
4 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.481 0.425 0.383 51.0% 11.1% 20.9% 45.0% OF $4,800 OF $5,300 N/A N/A
5 Mitch Moreland LEFT 0.452 0.391 0.293 38.3% 10.7% 18.0% 40.2% 1B $3,500 1B $4,000 N/A N/A
6 Rafael Devers LEFT 0.332 0.261 0.184 39.0% 7.9% 26.5% 43.6% 3B $3,700 3B $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Eduardo Nunez RIGHT 0.267 0.299 0.128 26.4% 2.1% 17.6% 51.4% 2B $2,700 2B/SS $3,300 N/A N/A
8 Sandy Leon SWITCH 0.292 0.236 0.143 30.6% 2.7% 27.4% 44.9% C $2,200 C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Jackie Bradley LEFT 0.341 0.345 0.118 35.7% 10.1% 24.2% 42.0% OF $2,600 OF $3,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.383 0.350 0.233 37.3% 8.3% 20.1% 41.9%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland, Rafael Devers

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins have the right lineup to take advantage of the splits of Rick Porcello. They are projected to have seven left-handed hitters in their lineup today and on the season, Porcello has allowed a .326 xwOBA and a 38% hard contact rate to batters from that side of the plate. Joe Mauer, Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, and Logan Morrison all bat from the left side and all boast a .360+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching. It sounds strange, but I actually have more interest in the Twins than I do in the Red Sox.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.415 0.334 0.083 40.0% 14.7% 11.9% 51.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300 N/A N/A
2 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.363 0.407 0.287 41.0% 7.4% 15.8% 29.0% OF $3,500 OF $4,900 N/A N/A
3 Eduardo Escobar SWITCH 0.379 0.456 0.322 42.8% 5.9% 23.5% 22.1% 3B $3,800 3B/SS $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Logan Morrison LEFT 0.363 0.421 0.174 39.3% 11.7% 18.4% 32.2% 1B $2,500 1B $3,100 N/A N/A
5 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.314 0.268 0.189 38.8% 8.5% 18.3% 41.2% 2B $3,500 2B $3,400 N/A N/A
6 Robbie Grossman SWITCH 0.325 0.321 0.101 38.0% 12.3% 21.0% 32.6% OF $2,300 OF $2,700 N/A N/A
7 Max Kepler LEFT 0.331 0.243 0.139 40.7% 12.6% 13.7% 40.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 N/A N/A
8 Mitch Garver RIGHT 0.294 0.296 0.138 37.7% 7.3% 27.1% 42.6% C $2,100 C $2,600 N/A N/A
9 Ehire Adrianza SWITCH 0.305 0.357 0.159 39.0% 7.6% 23.5% 35.4% SS $2,500 SS $3,000 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.343 0.345 0.177 39.7% 9.8% 19.2% 36.2%

Elite Plays – Eddie Rosario, Eduardo Escobar, Logan Morrison

Secondary Plays – Joe Mauer, Robbie Grossman

Stackability – YELLOW

NY Mets at Colorado – 3:10 PM ET

NY Mets Colorado
nymetsmlb Steven Matz coloradomlb Kyle Freeland
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
COL-140 11.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.264 0.249 9.8% 11.9% 15.3% 84.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.293 0.261 28.9% 9.9% 33.0% 41.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.331 0.338 40.1% 9.8% 22.4% 43.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.308 0.330 32.0% 6.9% 16.4% 48.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Steven Matz
steven-matz-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,400 Salary: $4,700 Salary:
Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank: 18 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 13 4.71 6.08 16.1% 6.4% 47.1% 32.9% 21.9%
2018 13 4.37 3.31 20.9% 10.3% 52.5% 33.3% 14.8%
L14 3 4.07 2.75 20.5% 9.0% 55.6% 30.9% 12.7%

Matz is having a decent year overall, but may not be able to sustain a 3.31 ERA the rest of the season. His .244 BABIP will regress closer to the league average (.300). The good news is that his low ERA didn’t lead to a price bump, at least not for today’s start ($4,700 on DraftKings). The bad news is that he’s pitching in Coors Field against the Rockies. If I’m taking a shot on a pitcher in this game, I’ll side with Kyle Freeland.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Matz in both cash games and tournaments.

Kyle Freeland
kyle-freeland-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,400 Salary: $6,100 Salary:
Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 16 of 20 Salary Rank:
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 28 4.93 4.10 15.6% 9.2% 53.9% 32.0% 24.3%
2018 14 4.13 3.59 20.7% 7.7% 46.7% 31.4% 20.6%
L14 3 3.96 4.12 21.7% 7.2% 44.8% 42.4% 6.8%

Freeland doesn’t have elite numbers this season, but they are pretty solid for a pitcher that makes half of his starts in Coors Field. He currently owns a 4.13 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 21% and a walk rate of 8%. Targeting a pitcher in this ballpark is always risky, but Freeland has plenty of upside in a matchup against the Mets, whose projected lineup has a .308 xwOBA and a 26% strikeout rate against southpaws this season.

Quick Breakdown: It makes me feel a little queasy saying this, but Freeland is my favorite SP2 in the early slate on DraftKings ($6,100).

Batter Grind Down

NY Mets

This is Coors Field, so I’m not trying to talk anyone out of playing the Mets’ hitters today. I decided to fade the Rockies in tournaments last night, which clearly didn’t end up working out for me. Today, I will be fading the Mets in tournaments, even though they are fine plays on paper. As a whole, they have struggled against southpaws this season and Kyle Freeland has quietly had a nice season for the Rockies.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brandon Nimmo LEFT 0.266 0.311 0.109 44.0% 12.7% 38.2% 58.3% OF $4,400 OF $5,000 N/A N/A
2 Asdrubal Cabrera SWITCH 0.347 0.296 0.149 39.7% 6.2% 16.0% 52.5% 2B $4,000 2B $4,200 N/A N/A
3 Todd Frazier RIGHT 0.333 0.288 0.129 45.5% 17.9% 25.6% 40.9% 3B $3,700 3B $4,600 N/A N/A
4 Wilmer Flores RIGHT 0.348 0.333 0.080 29.2% 8.9% 5.4% 27.1% 1B $3,500 1B/3B $3,800 N/A N/A
5 Michael Conforto LEFT 0.322 0.349 0.190 24.3% 10.6% 33.3% 56.8% OF $3,700 OF $4,500 N/A N/A
6 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.314 0.278 0.031 33.3% 10.8% 21.6% 50.0% C $3,400 C $3,700 N/A N/A
7 Jose Bautista RIGHT 0.344 0.300 0.212 40.9% 24.4% 24.4% 22.7% OF $3,400 3B/OF $3,900 N/A N/A
8 Steven Matz LEFT 0.171 0.074 0.000 0.0% 12.5% 50.0% 66.7% P $6,400 P $4,700 N/A N/A
9 Amed Rosario RIGHT 0.330 0.202 0.167 35.7% 3.6% 21.4% 42.9% SS $3,500 SS $3,500 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.308 0.270 0.119 32.5% 12.0% 26.2% 46.4%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Wilmer Flores, Devin Mesoraco

Stackability – YELLOW

Colorado

The Rockies are the team to load up on in the early slate if you can make the salaries work. After my initial build, it’s a lot easier to fit Colorado bats into lineups if you take the discount and play James Paxton over Luis Severino (especially on DraftKings). However you can make it work, they are the top offense to target. They draw an exploitable matchup against Steven Matz, who has allowed a .338 xwOBA and a 40% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters this season.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.442 0.345 0.250 44.9% 10.9% 12.5% 42.9% 2B $4,100 2B $4,800 N/A N/A
2 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.325 0.261 0.133 30.4% 8.3% 17.6% 51.3% OF $4,500 OF $5,600 N/A N/A
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.422 0.317 0.346 46.4% 17.2% 13.1% 33.3% 3B $5,100 3B $5,800 N/A N/A
4 Trevor Story RIGHT 0.378 0.387 0.329 50.0% 10.6% 26.6% 24.1% SS $4,800 SS $5,700 N/A N/A
5 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.353 0.405 0.316 44.1% 7.1% 21.2% 59.3% 1B $4,100 1B/OF $4,700 N/A N/A
6 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.266 0.272 0.088 31.7% 3.4% 27.1% 61.0% OF $3,800 OF $4,200 N/A N/A
7 Chris Iannetta RIGHT 0.343 0.386 0.088 41.3% 13.4% 17.9% 45.7% C $3,400 C $3,700 N/A N/A
8 Noel Cuevas RIGHT 0.294 0.304 0.063 33.3% 2.0% 6.0% 34.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,500 N/A N/A
9 Kyle Freeland LEFT 0.091 0.247 0.000 14.3% 0.0% 36.4% 75.0% P $7,400 P $6,100 N/A N/A
Team Averages 0.324 0.325 0.179 37.4% 8.1% 19.8% 47.4%

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond, Chris Iannetta (DK)

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Carlos Gonzalez

Stackability – GREEN

Arizona at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Arizona Pittsburgh
arizonamlb Zack Godley pittsburghmlb Chad Kuhl
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
PIT-110 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.352 0.358 32.7% 11.7% 21.1% 60.4% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.344 0.388 41.4% 10.4% 23.7% 31.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.334 0.368 40.0% 10.3% 24.0% 42.6% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.320 0.339 30.8% 7.2% 20.4% 40.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Zack Godley
zachary-godley-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,900 Salary: $7,200 Salary: $14,700
Salary Rank: 9 of 20 Salary Rank: 10 of 20 Salary Rank: 6 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 25 3.67 3.37 26.3% 8.5% 55.3% 32.2% 18.6%
2018 14 4.24 4.77 22.5% 11.0% 51.1% 36.4% 22.7%
L14 3 3.73 6.32 27.1% 10.0% 47.5% 45.0% 22.5%

Tonight’s seven-game main slate kicks off with the Diamondbacks and Pirates. Godley may have an ERA close to five on the season, but there are enough encouraging signs to suggest that he’ll have a much better second half of the year. In his last three starts, he has a 3.73 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 27%. He still needs to work on his control, but his price is only going up from here. While I have faith that he will right the ship, I don’t love his matchup against the Pirates, whose projected lineup has an 18% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Godley is viable in tournaments, but the matchup and the fact that he’s pitching on the road takes him out of cash game consideration.

Chad Kuhl
chad-kuhl-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,400 Salary: $6,700 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 7 of 20 Salary Rank: 11 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 4.79 4.35 20.9% 10.6% 41.9% 36.1% 17.2%
2018 14 4.22 3.76 22.1% 8.8% 36.2% 35.9% 17.3%
L14 2 4.16 3.18 22.2% 9.3% 40.6% 30.6% 27.8%

Last night was a real letdown when they postponed the game in Pittsburgh. Sometimes the weather turns and there’s nothing we can do about it. Kuhl was scheduled to pitch last night, but will take the mound tonight instead. He’s been more than serviceable this season, posting a 4.22 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 22%. He’s pitching at home in a good ballpark and he’s a slight favorite against the Diamondbacks, whose projected lineup has a 29% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: Kuhl is viable in tournaments and potentially as a cheap SP2 in cash games.

Batter Grind Down

Arizona

The top of the Diamondbacks’ lineup has been heating up over the last couple of weeks (as you can see in the table below), but they are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. They draw a mediocre matchup against Chad Kuhl, but he has struggled a bit against lefties this season, allowing a .388 xwOBA and a 41% hard contact rate. While far from core plays, Jon Jay, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, and Daniel Descalso are viable as lineup fillers if you aren’t playing Kuhl.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jon Jay LEFT 0.342 0.331 0.109 37.7% 6.0% 13.0% 54.0% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Paul Goldschmidt RIGHT 0.343 0.518 0.184 44.1% 11.7% 31.3% 42.4% 1B $4,800 1B $5,400 1B $10,100
3 Jake Lamb LEFT 0.383 0.363 0.220 46.7% 9.6% 25.5% 45.0% 3B $3,400 3B $4,100 3B $8,400
4 David Peralta LEFT 0.381 0.433 0.266 53.3% 8.6% 18.4% 48.5% OF $3,500 OF $4,800 RF $9,900
5 Daniel Descalso LEFT 0.388 0.476 0.267 43.4% 16.6% 22.1% 29.3% 2B $3,200 2B/3B $3,900 3B $7,200
6 Ketel Marte SWITCH 0.282 0.407 0.117 27.1% 6.4% 15.3% 52.9% SS $3,200 2B/SS $3,900 SS $7,500
7 Alex Avila LEFT 0.265 0.236 0.073 54.1% 11.8% 48.4% 35.1% C $2,000 C $2,600 C $4,600
8 Jarrod Dyson LEFT 0.294 0.291 0.074 20.6% 12.9% 10.7% 42.0% OF $2,300 OF $3,000 CF $5,700
9 Zack Godley RIGHT 0.062 0.157 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 78.6% 0.0% P $7,900 P $7,200 P $14,700
Team Averages 0.304 0.357 0.146 36.3% 9.3% 29.3% 38.8%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Jon Jay, Jake Lamb, David Peralta, Daniel Descalso

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have quietly hit right-handed pitching well this season, but Zack Godley isn’t nearly as bad as his 4.77 ERA suggests. While he has allowed a .355+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters, I expect those numbers to improve over the next few months. In other words, I’m not going out of my way to target the Pirates’ hitters tonight, but Austin Meadows (.332 xwOBA), Colin Moran (.375 xwOBA), and Francisco Cervelli (.416 xwOBA) are all viable tournament plays.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.314 0.380 0.125 35.0% 5.3% 15.0% 33.3% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
2 Austin Meadows LEFT 0.330 0.306 0.183 39.2% 1.6% 16.1% 35.3% OF $3,000 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Starling Marte RIGHT 0.299 0.308 0.156 27.8% 6.6% 19.4% 46.8% OF $3,400 OF $4,100 CF $8,000
4 Colin Moran LEFT 0.375 0.411 0.167 34.0% 9.8% 15.5% 39.7% 3B $2,900 3B $3,400 3B $6,300
5 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.416 0.354 0.262 38.2% 12.9% 19.0% 33.3% C $2,900 C $3,700 C $7,600
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.328 0.322 0.138 31.4% 10.3% 17.8% 51.0% 1B $2,700 1B $3,400 1B $6,800
7 Gregory Polanco LEFT 0.349 0.283 0.208 37.6% 12.2% 21.5% 33.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,700 RF $7,300
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.346 0.449 0.163 28.6% 8.1% 18.9% 39.8% SS $2,900 SS $3,100 SS $5,500
9 Chad Kuhl RIGHT 0.069 0.098 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 71.4% P $8,400 P $6,700 P $12,700
Team Averages 0.314 0.323 0.156 30.2% 7.4% 18.1% 42.6%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Austin Meadows, Colin Moran, Francisco Cervelli (DK)

Stackability – ORANGE

Baltimore at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Baltimore Washington
baltimoremlb Kevin Gausman washingtonmlb Max Scherzer
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-300 7.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.316 0.320 26.9% 8.2% 23.9% 42.5% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.256 28.2% 6.2% 33.8% 34.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.375 0.357 37.0% 3.5% 21.5% 52.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.196 0.239 33.7% 5.6% 45.0% 38.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Kevin Gausman
kevin-gausman-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,200 Salary: $6,600 Salary: $12,700
Salary Rank: 15 of 20 Salary Rank: 12 of 20 Salary Rank: 9 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 34 4.41 4.68 21.9% 8.7% 42.7% 32.3% 18.2%
2018 14 3.60 4.48 22.6% 5.6% 48.2% 32.7% 18.5%
L14 2 2.95 3.65 24.5% 5.7% 62.9% 19.4% 33.3%

Gausman has been trending positively for a while now and we’ve seen some big fantasy outings out of him recently. In 14 starts, he owns a 3.60 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 23% and a ground ball rate of 48%. The issue tonight is two-fold: he’s facing a talented Nationals’ offense on the road and Max Scherzer is pitching opposite him. He’ll have a hard time getting any run support, let alone enough to pick up the win.

Quick Breakdown: I’m a Gausman fan, but will be avoiding him in all formats tonight.

Max Scherzer
max-scherzer-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $12,200 Salary: $14,500 Salary: $28,500
Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20 Salary Rank: 1 of 20
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 31 2.98 2.51 34.4% 7.1% 36.5% 26.5% 19.5%
2018 15 2.17 2.06 39.0% 5.9% 36.2% 30.5% 22.4%
L14 3 1.96 2.57 40.0% 5.0% 44.2% 23.3% 27.9%

In most slates, you can make a case to fade anyone, whether that fade is based on ownership or price. I can’t warrant a Scherzer fade tonight, even though he’ll be highly owned and even though he’s expensive across the industry. In 15 starts this season, he has a 2.17 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 39%. He should be able to mow through this Orioles’ offense tonight. Their projected lineup has a 23% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and that doesn’t even include their pitcher, who will likely offer a couple of easy strikeouts for Mad Max.

Quick Breakdown: Lock in Scherzer tonight and build from there.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Be the opposite of Nike — don’t do it.

In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Max Scherzer has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA this season. BvP truthers will have their loyalty tested, as Adam Jones is 13-for-32 with four home runs against Scherzer in his career.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Jace Peterson LEFT 0.278 0.316 0.080 27.9% 11.8% 26.5% 48.3% 2B $2,700 2B/3B $2,800 2B $5,600
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.355 0.311 0.200 35.4% 3.0% 18.7% 39.7% OF $3,000 OF $3,200 CF $6,700
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.383 0.349 0.261 34.2% 10.8% 17.5% 33.6% SS $4,200 SS $4,300 3B $8,500
4 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.220 0.270 0.169 22.4% 2.0% 24.8% 49.1% 2B $3,000 2B $3,100 2B $5,700
5 Danny Valencia RIGHT 0.366 0.398 0.189 33.9% 8.5% 19.5% 45.8% 3B $3,000 3B $2,900 3B $5,800
6 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.338 0.270 0.144 38.6% 6.2% 20.6% 41.4% OF $2,900 OF $3,200 DH $6,500
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.372 0.281 0.132 35.0% 10.1% 24.3% 47.2% OF $2,600 1B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $5,500
8 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.193 0.191 25.8% 0.0% 35.4% 36.7% C $2,100 C $2,500 C $4,600
9 Kevin Gausman RIGHT P $7,200 P $6,600 P $12,700
Team Averages 0.313 0.314 0.171 31.7% 6.6% 23.4% 42.7%

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

Washington

This is a tough spot. I want to be on the Nationals before they hit their stride offensively and become popular, but Kevin Gausman has been trending in the right direction for a while now. Ultimately, I will likely fade Gausman and choose my spots carefully with the Nationals’ offense. Adam Eaton, Bryce Harper, and Anthony Rendon all boast a .380+ xwOBA against right-handed pitching.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats xwOBA L15 ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Eaton LEFT 0.474 0.230 0.244 55.6% 6.5% 10.9% 41.7% OF $3,900 OF $4,200 CF $8,400
2 Juan Soto LEFT 0.342 0.363 0.130 36.4% 13.2% 24.5% 42.4% OF $3,900 OF $4,500 LF $9,000
3 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.381 0.365 0.183 35.2% 10.6% 13.4% 36.4% 3B $3,900 3B $3,900 3B $7,800
4 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.423 0.289 0.305 46.4% 18.4% 22.1% 36.6% OF $4,300 OF $5,300 RF $9,900
5 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.295 0.245 0.000 10.0% 8.3% 8.3% 20.0% 2B $3,500 2B $4,300 2B $8,300
6 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.334 0.287 0.139 33.8% 9.7% 19.9% 54.7% SS $3,900 SS $4,700 IF/OF $9,400
7 Wilmer Difo SWITCH 0.309 0.266 0.113 17.4% 9.9% 13.8% 47.7% 2B $2,600 2B/3B $3,100 2B $5,600
8 Pedro Severino RIGHT 0.252 0.145 0.054 22.9% 9.5% 21.0% 44.9% C $2,000 C $2,700 C $5,500
9 Max Scherzer RIGHT 0.252 0.248 0.034 20.0% 0.0% 13.3% 64.0% P $12,200 P $14,500 P $28,500
Team Averages 0.340 0.271 0.134 30.9% 9.6% 16.4% 43.2%

Elite Plays – Adam Eaton

Secondary Plays – Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper

Stackability – YELLOW

Note: Unless noted, all statistics in the Grind Down are from the 2018 season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious