MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 9th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-06-10 01:42:50

The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Houston at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Houston					Texas
			Collin McHugh					Martin Perez
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			HOU -120					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.308	14	19.5%	7.0%	SP vs. Left	0.232	1	24.6%	10.0%
SP vs. Right	0.329	14	20.7%	5.2%	SP vs. Right	0.335	8	11.1%	8.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Collin McHugh
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,900
					FPPG:		27.8	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		63.6	Pitcher Rank:		10
L14 Days	2	103.5	3.83	4.40	22.8%	7.0%	10.6%	48.7%	38.5%	27.5%
2016	12	97.5	3.97	4.97	20.8%	5.8%	10.7%	43.0%	37.9%	25.6%
2015	32	101.3	3.91	3.89	19.9%	6.2%	10.3%	45.4%	34.6%	25.1%

McHugh has been a serviceable pitcher for the Astros over the last two seasons, posting a 3.94 SIERA with a strikeout rate right around 20%. There isn’t anything that really stands out with his numbers, but there aren’t any glaring weaknesses either. The reason to fade him today is his matchup against the Rangers. Texas is ranked 11th in team wOBA and third in team K% against right-handed pitching this season.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Martin Perez
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		25.8	FPPG:		12.4
					Pitcher Rating:		46.2	Pitcher Rank:		13
L14 Days	2	103.0	4.94	3.75	7.3%	3.6%	5.8%	52.1%	27.1%	36.7%
2016	12	96.5	5.01	3.24	13.5%	10.6%	7.6%	56.1%	25.6%	30.3%
2015	14	86.8	4.06	4.46	14.2%	7.1%	7.5%	59.9%	22.1%	22.7%

Perez has a low ERA this season, but he doesn’t fit the mold of the type of pitcher we are looking to target in DFS. Through his first 12 starts, he has a 5.01 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 13.5% and a high walk rate of 10.6%. The main reason why he has been able to have success this season has been his ability to produce ground balls at a 56.1% clip. Perez doesn’t have enough upside to warrant fantasy consideration today.

Batter Grind Down

Houston

The Astros have the fifth highest team total on the board today. While we don’t have to worry about them striking out at a high rate against Martin Perez, the matchup may not be as ideal as their run projection suggests. I’m always hesitant to target hitters against elite ground ball pitchers, because they don’t give up a lot of hard contact. Now with that said, the right-handed batters are certainly worth a look here. Over the last two seasons, Martin Perez has allowed a .335 wOBA to hitters from that side of the plate.

Astros Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.322 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.165 (11 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 25.6% (29 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.30 (16 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.87 (5 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	George Springer	RIGHT	0.413	0.239	0.428	OF	$4,000	OF	$5,400
2	Jose Altuve	RIGHT	0.427	0.191	0.441	2B	$4,100	2B	$5,400
3	Carlos Correa	RIGHT	0.355	0.219	0.358	SS	$4,100	SS	$4,900
4	Evan Gattis	RIGHT	0.314	0.213	0.291	C	$3,700	C	$4,200
5	Marwin Gonzalez	SWITCH	0.355	0.204	0.277	1B	$2,800	1B/3B	$3,200
6	Luis Valbuena	LEFT	0.260	0.136	0.408	3B	$3,100	3B	$3,100
7	Carlos Gomez	RIGHT	0.314	0.143	0.351	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800
8	Tyler White	RIGHT	0.271	0.240	0.231	1B	$2,400	1B	$3,700
9	Jake Marisnick	RIGHT	0.284	0.201	0.306	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
	Team Averages	—	0.333	0.198	0.343	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GPP

Texas

The Rangers are small underdogs at home against Collin McHugh and the Astros. As I mentioned above, McHugh is one of those pitchers that doesn’t have any glaring strengths or weaknesses. He has had reverse splits in his last two seasons, allowing a .308 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .329 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Rangers Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.315 (11 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.160 (15 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 18.4% (3 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.76 (7 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.63 (9 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jurickson Profar	SWITCH	0.459	0.324	0.428	2B	$3,200	2B	$4,100
2	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.297	0.145	0.392	OF	$3,800	OF	$5,000
3	Nomar Mazara	LEFT	0.404	0.226	0.372	OF	$3,100	OF	$3,800
4	Rougned Odor	LEFT	0.327	0.213	0.357	2B	$2,900	2B	$4,000
5	Ryan Rua	RIGHT	0.283	0.160	0.454	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$2,900
6	Prince Fielder	LEFT	0.349	0.140	0.248	1B	$2,500	1B	$3,300
7	Elvis Andrus	RIGHT	0.282	0.082	0.274	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,500
8	Mitch Moreland	LEFT	0.345	0.208	0.229	OF	$2,500	1B	$3,300
9	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.316	0.176	0.370	C	$2,400	C	$2,200
	Team Averages	—	0.340	0.186	0.347	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar, Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh at Colorado – 5:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Pittsburgh					Colorado
			Jeff Locke					Chad Bettis
			LEFT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			COL -110					12.0
SP vs. Left	0.330	7	12.4%	7.3%	SP vs. Left	0.322	6	17.2%	10.0%
SP vs. Right	0.322	18	17.3%	8.6%	SP vs. Right	0.352	16	19.3%	5.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jeff Locke
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$5,500
					FPPG:		22.6	FPPG:		10.7
					Pitcher Rating:		36.9	Pitcher Rank:		18
L14 Days	2	93.5	5.55	1.69	5.6%	0.0%	5.4%	40.8%	44.9%	27.5%
2016	11	93.3	5.23	4.28	12.5%	8.6%	7.6%	47.9%	35.5%	26.0%
2015	30	92.7	4.18	4.49	17.5%	8.2%	9.0%	51.0%	24.9%	27.0%

I’m a big fan of the Coors Field games when they are during the day. Some people love Coors slates and others wish that Coors games would be excluded. With this being an early game, you can choose whether to play in the all-day slate or you can just play the main slate. Locke is having a rough season thus far and it’s not likely going to get any better after today’s start. The Rockies have the sixth highest team ISO against left-handed pitching this season and come into this game with the highest run projection on the board.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Chad Bettis
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$4,900
					FPPG:		22.8	FPPG:		10.2
					Pitcher Rating:		41.5	Pitcher Rank:		15
L14 Days	2	87.5	5.05	10.38	11.4%	6.8%	9.1%	47.1%	29.4%	38.9%
2016	12	96.2	4.32	5.58	16.2%	6.3%	7.8%	49.8%	28.4%	32.6%
2015	20	94.1	4.08	4.23	19.5%	8.4%	9.8%	49.3%	28.5%	31.8%

Bettis has struggled in his last two starts, which has brought his ERA up to 5.58 on the season. His SIERA is a little better, but he is well below the major league average in strikeout rate. We always like to avoid targeting pitchers in Coors Field and that’s not going to change today with Bettis. In addition to the ballpark factor working against him, the Pirates have a loaded offense that is ranked sixth in team wOBA against right-handed pitching this season.

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are small underdogs today against the Rockies, but they have a good chance to put up the most runs of any team on the schedule. They draw a favorable matchup against Chad Bettis and they get to face him in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field. Over the last two seasons, Bettis has allowed a .322 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .352 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Pirates Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.336 (6 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.145 (20 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.88 (6 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.94 (2 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	John Jaso	LEFT	0.359	0.160	0.307	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,500
2	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.365	0.193	0.279	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,100
3	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.345	0.164	0.358	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,600
4	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.355	0.159	0.392	OF	$4,100	OF	$5,500
5	Jung-Ho Kang	RIGHT	0.371	0.201	0.416	3B	$3,600	3B	$5,300
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.321	0.079	0.277	C	$2,800	C	$4,000
7	Josh Harrison	RIGHT	0.310	0.103	0.357	2B	$3,100	2B	$4,800
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.266	0.065	0.275	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,800
9	Jeff Locke	LEFT	0.122	0.019	0.000	P	$6,900	P	$5,500
	Team Averages	—	0.313	0.127	0.296	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Jung-Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

The Rockies have the highest implied run total of the 18 teams in action today. If you are playing in the all-day slate, you should obviously try to get as much exposure to the batters in this game as possible. Jeff Locke is a left-handed pitcher that struggles against batters from both sides of the plate. Over the last two seasons, he has allowed a .330 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .322 wOBA to right-handed hitters.

Rockies Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.317 (16 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.173 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 24.6% (27 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.95 (5 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 6.06 (1 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.330	0.059	0.378	2B	$3,400	2B	$4,400
2	Ryan Raburn	RIGHT	0.410	0.271	0.242	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,600
3	Nolan Arenado	RIGHT	0.349	0.224	0.401	3B	$4,500	3B	$5,300
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.244	0.143	0.514	OF	$4,500	OF	$4,600
5	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.364	0.270	0.306	SS	$3,600	SS	$5,200
6	Mark Reynolds	RIGHT	0.327	0.164	0.312	1B	$3,500	1B	$3,900
7	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.303	0.135	0.287	OF	$3,400	OF	$3,900
8	Nick Hundley	RIGHT	0.320	0.135	0.216	C	$2,900	C	$3,300
9	Chad Bettis	RIGHT	0.086	0.000	0.000	P	$5,800	P	$4,900
	Team Averages	—	0.304	0.156	0.295	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Raburn, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Nick Hundley

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
LA Angels					NY Yankees
			Jhoulys Chacin					Ivan Nova
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			NYY -128					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.320	8	13.4%	9.3%	SP vs. Left	0.369	12	10.4%	7.4%
SP vs. Right	0.298	3	24.7%	6.5%	SP vs. Right	0.312	9	20.3%	5.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Jhoulys Chacin
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$7,100
					FPPG:		25.5	FPPG:		13.5
					Pitcher Rating:		56.7	Pitcher Rank:		11
L14 Days	2	100.0	4.45	2.57	19.3%	8.8%	9.5%	51.3%	41.0%	34.2%
2016	10	89.7	4.02	4.50	19.4%	7.3%	8.9%	52.9%	28.2%	35.2%
2015	4	106.5	4.28	3.38	18.9%	9.0%	8.9%	47.4%	33.3%	38.8%

Chacin is having a decent season thus far, posting a 4.02 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 19.3% in ten starts. He doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he does produce a high ground ball rate of 52.9%. He comes into tonight’s game against the Yankees as a small underdog with the over/under set at 9.0 runs. New York hasn’t been great offensively this season, but their offense has been firing on all cylinders in this series. Even though pitching options are limited tonight, I will not be looking to target Chacin.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Ivan Nova
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,000	Salary:		$5,300
					FPPG:		18.5	FPPG:		8.9
					Pitcher Rating:		64.2	Pitcher Rank:		9
L14 Days	2	102.0	4.04	6.75	18.9%	5.7%	10.3%	45.0%	30.0%	40.0%
2016	6	118.7	3.53	4.41	16.1%	3.9%	9.6%	59.0%	23.0%	31.7%
2015	17	89.9	4.58	5.07	15.3%	8.0%	7.8%	49.0%	31.7%	32.3%

Nova has struggled with consistency this season, which is always a big flag when looking at pitchers for cash games. His numbers don’t look terrible overall, but a strikeout rate of only 16.1% isn’t exactly ideal. His strikeout potential could be severely limited tonight, as he squares off against an Angels’ offense that has the lowest K% of any team against right-handed pitching this season. Even though Nova is a favorite, I will be avoiding him in all league formats tonight.

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

The Angels may not have a high team total, but they are facing an inconsistent pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. This could certainly be a good night to target the Angels in tournaments, as they should get overlooked by the masses. Mike Trout and Kole Calhoun deserve consideration in all league formats, as they both have a .413+ wOBA over the last 14 days.

Angels Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.314 (12 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.138 (24 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 15.8% (1 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.32 (15 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.33 (13 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Yunel Escobar	RIGHT	0.340	0.094	0.265	3B	$3,000	3B	$3,700
2	Kole Calhoun	LEFT	0.337	0.170	0.441	OF	$3,900	OF	$5,200
3	Mike Trout	RIGHT	0.414	0.289	0.413	OF	$4,200	OF	$5,500
4	Albert Pujols	RIGHT	0.331	0.213	0.408	1B	$3,300	1B	$4,700
5	C.J. Cron	RIGHT	0.326	0.182	0.315	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,700
6	Johnny Giavotella	LEFT	0.300	0.109	0.187	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,100
7	Rafael Ortega	LEFT	0.273	0.077	0.215	OF	$2,300	OF	$3,200
8	Carlos Perez	RIGHT	0.289	0.126	0.196	C	$2,200	C	$2,500
9	Gregorio Petit	RIGHT	0.333	0.152	0.392	SS	$2,800	SS	$3,500
	Team Averages	—	0.327	0.157	0.315	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

The Yankees’ offense hasn’t had a lot to cheer about this season, but they have already scored 23 runs in the first three games of this series. They draw another exploitable matchup tonight against Jhoulys Chacin, who has allowed a .320 wOBA to left-handed hitters over the last two seasons. Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, and Carlos Beltran have all been swinging hot bats with a .350+ wOBA over the last 14 days.

Yankees Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.303 (24 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.156 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 19.0% (7 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 3.98 (23 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.67 (7 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jacoby Ellsbury	LEFT	0.317	0.116	0.383	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,200
2	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.334	0.153	0.351	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,000
3	Carlos Beltran	SWITCH	0.359	0.220	0.461	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,400
4	Alex Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.336	0.212	0.282	3B	$3,300	1B/3B	$3,600
5	Brian McCann	LEFT	0.326	0.205	0.213	C	$3,000	C	$3,500
6	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.292	0.135	0.319	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,500
7	Chris Parmelee	LEFT	0.342	0.282	1.065	1B	$2,000	1B/OF	$3,100
8	Chase Headley	SWITCH	0.299	0.101	0.297	3B	$2,800	3B	$3,000
9	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.297	0.120	0.248	SS	$2,300	SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.322	0.172	0.402	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez, Starlin Castro, Chris Parmelee

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
Baltimore					Toronto
			Tyler Wilson					Marcus Stroman
			RIGHT					RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			TOR -150					9.0
SP vs. Left	0.311	3	7.7%	7.7%	SP vs. Left	0.302	4	16.2%	8.7%
SP vs. Right	0.318	5	14.4%	4.2%	SP vs. Right	0.299	4	16.9%	5.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Tyler Wilson
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$7,200	Salary:		$4,800
					FPPG:		17.0	FPPG:		8.2
					Pitcher Rating:		38.0	Pitcher Rank:		16
L14 Days	2	83.5	4.25	6.75	10.2%	4.1%	7.8%	61.9%	26.2%	35.7%
2016	8	102.6	4.69	4.39	12.0%	5.3%	6.1%	50.5%	31.5%	30.7%
2015	5	104.0	5.08	3.50	8.7%	7.4%	5.2%	52.0%	30.1%	31.5%

Wilson is making his ninth start of the season. In his last 13 major league starts, he has a SIERA just under 5.00 with a strikeout rate just over 10%. Those are not promising numbers, especially in DFS. To make matters worse, Wilson has to go into Toronto to take on a talented Blue Jays’ lineup in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. Brandon Finnegan is the only pitcher in the evening slate with a lower rating than Wilson.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Marcus Stroman
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$5,700
					FPPG:		28.1	FPPG:		13.3
					Pitcher Rating:		81.3	Pitcher Rank:		2
L14 Days	2	97.0	4.62	10.64	16.4%	10.9%	10.3%	50.0%	15.0%	47.5%
2016	12	99.8	4.02	4.82	16.2%	7.4%	8.4%	59.8%	21.5%	32.7%
2015	4	93.3	3.28	1.67	17.5%	5.8%	7.2%	64.1%	17.9%	21.8%

Stroman has allowed at least six runs in three of his last four starts. It has been a bit uncharacteristic, as he generally avoids those blowup outings that plague a lot of pitchers. I have mixed feelings on him tonight. While he doesn’t boast a high strikeout rate, the Orioles do have the ninth highest K% against right-handed pitching this season. If Stroman is able to keep it on the ground (which he is usually great at), he could have some success tonight. You know the pitching options are scarce when he comes in as the second highest rated pitcher.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles have one of the best offenses in baseball and they are facing a struggling pitcher in one of the best hitter’s parks in baseball. This seems like a perfect recipe for another big outing, right? Vegas doesn’t see it that way, as Baltimore comes into the game with the fourth lowest run projection on the board. Marcus Stroman has been tough on hitters from both sides of the plate, holding lefties to a .302 wOBA and righties to a .299 wOBA over the last two seasons.

Orioles Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.344 (3 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.200 (2 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.74 (8 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.21 (15 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.338	0.211	0.350	OF	$3,500	OF	$4,100
2	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.405	0.105	0.357	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,200
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.390	0.255	0.370	SS	$3,800	3B/SS	$4,500
4	Mark Trumbo	RIGHT	0.346	0.203	0.504	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,900
5	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.395	0.321	0.277	1B	$3,500	1B	$4,000
6	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.334	0.157	0.280	C	$3,000	C	$3,300
7	Pedro Alvarez	LEFT	0.334	0.231	0.372	3B	$2,700	1B	$3,200
8	Jonathan Schoop	RIGHT	0.354	0.230	0.247	2B	$3,000	2B	$3,300
9	Ryan Flaherty	LEFT	0.277	0.139	0.344	2B	$2,500	3B	$2,600
	Team Averages	—	0.353	0.206	0.345	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

The Blue Jays have the sixth highest team total on the board, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up scoring the most runs of the 14 teams in the evening slate. They draw a favorable matchup against Tyler Wilson, who has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any starting pitcher in baseball. The splits are also in the Blue Jays’ favor, as Wilson has allowed a .311 wOBA to left-handed hitters and a .318 wOBA to right-handed hitters over the last two seasons.

Blue Jays Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.313 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.174 (10 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 22.8% (20 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.18 (19 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.79 (6 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Jose Bautista	RIGHT	0.385	0.285	0.303	OF	$4,300	OF	$4,400
2	Josh Donaldson	RIGHT	0.383	0.259	0.436	3B	$3,900	3B	$4,800
3	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.371	0.261	0.338	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,600
4	Michael Saunders	LEFT	0.338	0.157	0.308	OF	$3,300	OF	$3,800
5	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.339	0.223	0.332	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,400
6	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.300	0.176	0.326	C	$2,700	C	$3,200
7	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.343	0.160	0.217	2B	$2,800	2B	$3,700
8	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.304	0.129	0.312	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
9	Darwin Barney	RIGHT	0.364	0.160	0.373	SS	$2,500	2B/SS	$2,800
	Team Averages	—	0.347	0.201	0.327	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%	Stats	wOBA	HR All.	K%	BB%
St. Louis					Cincinnati
			Adam Wainwright					Brandon Finnegan
			RIGHT					LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline					Vegas Over/Under
			STL -165					9.5
SP vs. Left	0.306	2	17.3%	4.3%	SP vs. Left	0.306	3	15.5%	10.9%
SP vs. Right	0.326	6	14.3%	5.9%	SP vs. Right	0.321	15	19.4%	11.2%

Pitcher Grind Down

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Adam Wainwright
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$8,000	Salary:		$5,600
					FPPG:		23.7	FPPG:		10.4
					Pitcher Rating:		71.0	Pitcher Rank:		7
L14 Days	2	100.5	3.39	3.86	20.4%	1.9%	7.0%	52.5%	32.5%	39.0%
2016	12	93.8	4.62	5.40	14.7%	5.8%	6.9%	42.6%	31.6%	31.0%
2015	4	95.8	3.45	1.61	18.0%	3.6%	7.8%	51.2%	22.6%	21.8%

Pitching is atrocious tonight. When you are considering Wainwright on the road as your SP2, that says a lot about the state of slate in question. Wainwright has been better in his last two starts, posting a 3.39 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20.4%. We are still a long ways away from feeling confident about him heading into a start, but he is a sizable favorite tonight against the Reds. Given the lack of other options and the fact that he is only $5,700 on DraftKings, he is certainly worth a look here.

Statistics	Starts	PitchPS	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	SS%	GB%	FB%	HH%
Brandon Finnegan
					FanDuel			DraftKings
					Salary:		$5,900	Salary:		$5,400
					FPPG:		20.0	FPPG:		10.0
					Pitcher Rating:		37.3	Pitcher Rank:		17
L14 Days	2	106.5	6.25	3.55	11.8%	13.7%	9.9%	32.4%	37.8%	39.5%
2016	12	96.1	5.32	3.89	15.4%	11.4%	8.5%	40.0%	34.3%	33.8%
2015	4	187.8	3.77	3.56	22.8%	10.7%	9.7%	54.3%	29.1%	30.8%

Finnegan grades out as the worst pitching option in the slate tonight. He had some success a year ago, but has not been able to carry that over to this season. In his first 12 starts, he has a 5.32 SIERA with a low strikeout rate of 15.4% and a high walk rate of 11.4%. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Cardinals, who as we saw last night, are capable of putting up runs in a hurry.

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

The Cardinals have the highest run projection of the 14 teams in action tonight. In addition to a nice ballpark boost, they draw a favorable matchup against Brandon Finnegan, who hasn’t been particularly effective against hitters from either side of the plate. All of the right-handed batters in this lineup are strong plays tonight, as well as Matt Carpenter, who doesn’t seem to mind the lefty/lefty matchups.

Cardinals Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. LHP — 0.318 (14 of 30)
Team ISO vs. LHP — 0.150 (17 of 30)
Team K% vs. LHP — 20.4% (13 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 5.51 (2 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 5.13 (3 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. LHP	ISO vs. LHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Matt Carpenter	LEFT	0.331	0.197	0.469	2B	$4,200	3B	$4,900
2	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.304	0.143	0.310	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000
3	Matt Holliday	RIGHT	0.313	0.144	0.393	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,400
4	Stephen Piscotty	RIGHT	0.443	0.220	0.319	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,800
5	Jhonny Peralta	RIGHT	0.317	0.204	0.610	3B	$2,200	SS	$3,700
6	Matt Adams	LEFT	0.312	0.118	0.445	1B	$3,400	1B	$3,700
7	Yadier Molina	RIGHT	0.263	0.045	0.152	C	$2,500	C	$2,800
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.322	0.206	0.201	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,500
9	Adam Wainwright	RIGHT	0.255	0.250	0.312	P	$8,000	P	$5,600
	Team Averages	—	0.318	0.170	0.357	—	—	—	—

Elite Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Jhonny Peralta

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

The Reds draw a boom or bust type of matchup against Adam Wainwright. While he has pitched better in his last few outings, we have seen him get shelled a time or two this season. I probably won’t be targeting any Reds’ hitters in cash games, but they make nice contrarian targets for GPPs. They also make an interesting stack if you want to go full contrarian.

Reds Offense (2016)
Team wOBA vs. RHP — 0.304 (23 of 30)
Team ISO vs. RHP — 0.184 (6 of 30)
Team K% vs. RHP — 23.0% (22 of 30)
Runs Per Game — 4.47 (12 of 30)
Projected Run Total — 4.37 (11 of 18)

Projected Lineup

#	Player	Bats	wOBA vs. RHP	ISO vs. RHP	wOBA L14	FD Position	FD Salary	DK Position	DK Salary
1	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.333	0.204	0.414	SS	$3,500	SS	$4,000
2	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.404	0.238	0.465	1B	$3,400	1B	$5,300
3	Brandon Phillips	RIGHT	0.315	0.122	0.336	2B	$3,200	2B	$3,900
4	Jay Bruce	LEFT	0.333	0.254	0.490	OF	$3,500	OF	$5,000
5	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.384	0.362	0.472	OF	$3,600	OF	$5,400
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.308	0.169	0.388	3B	$3,100	3B	$4,600
7	Billy Hamilton	SWITCH	0.257	0.063	0.441	OF	$3,100	OF	$4,300
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.291	0.086	0.410	C	$2,100	C	$2,500
9	Brandon Finnegan	LEFT	0.199	0.045	0.000	P	$5,900	P	$5,400
	Team Averages	—	0.314	0.171	0.380	—	—	—	—

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, June 9th

Houston at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Houston

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – George Springer, Jose Altuve

Secondary Plays – Carlos Correa, Evan Gattis, Marwin Gonzalez

Stackability – GPP

Texas

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Nomar Mazara, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Jurickson Profar, Ian Desmond, Ryan Rua

Stackability – GPP

Pittsburgh at Colorado – 5:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – John Jaso, Andrew McCutchen, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Jung-Ho Kang, Francisco Cervelli

Secondary Plays – Josh Harrison, Jordy Mercer

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Colorado

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – DJ LeMahieu, Ryan Raburn, Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, Mark Reynolds

Secondary Plays – Carlos Gonzalez, Gerardo Parra, Nick Hundley

Stackability – Cash & GPP

LA Angels at NY Yankees – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

LA Angels

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Kole Calhoun, Mike Trout

Secondary Plays – Albert Pujols, C.J. Cron

Stackability – GPP

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jacoby Ellsbury, Brett Gardner, Carlos Beltran, Brian McCann

Secondary Plays – Alex Rodriguez, Starlin Castro, Chris Parmelee

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Baltimore at Toronto – 7:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Adam Jones, Hyun-Soo Kim, Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Chris Davis

Stackability – GPP

Toronto

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak

Secondary Plays – Russell Martin, Devon Travis

Stackability – Cash & GPP

St. Louis at Cincinnati – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

St. Louis

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – Aledmys Diaz, Matt Holliday, Stephen Piscotty, Jhonny Peralta

Secondary Plays – Matt Carpenter, Yadier Molina, Randal Grichuk

Stackability – Cash & GPP

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Adam Duvall

Stackability – GPP

Pitching problems? Check out my DFS strategy video on pitcher selection

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