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MLB Grind Down: Thursday, May 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-05-19 03:32:22

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Washington at Pittsburgh – 12:35 PM ET

Washington Pittsburgh
washingtonmlb Tanner Roark pittsburghmlb Tyler Glasnow
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
WAS-115 9.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.291 0.325 29.0% 10.6% 18.7% 41.0% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.401 0.341 18.1% 16.2% 20.5% 47.2%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.275 0.296 21.3% 6.7% 21.5% 54.9% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.376 0.333 29.7% 10.7% 22.1% 41.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Tanner Roark
tanner-roark-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $8,900 Salary: $17,400
Salary Rank: 6 of 22 Salary Rank: 5 of 22 Salary Rank: 5 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 4.32 2.83 20.1% 8.5% 48.7% 24.3% 23.1%
2017 8 4.24 3.88 20.3% 8.9% 46.9% 27.6% 17.9%

We have a five game early slate, a five game late slate, and one straggler game (Brewers/Padres) that is only included in the all-day slate. The first thing you will notice in the early slate is a lack of pitching options. Jon Lester is available, but once again we have strong winds blowing out at Wrigley Field. Roark may garner some ownership as the path of least resistance, as he draws a decent matchup against the Pirates in the pitcher-friendly PNC Park. Roark has an average strikeout rate, an above-average ground ball rate, and he doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is ranked 28th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: This isn’t a plus matchup in terms of strikeout potential, but Roark is a safe play in all formats.

Tyler Glasnow
tyler-glasnow-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,200 Salary: $6,200 Salary: $12,300
Salary Rank: 17 of 22 Salary Rank: 16 of 22 Salary Rank: 15 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 4 4.46 4.24 22.9% 12.4% 47.6% 27.7% 21.5%
2017 7 5.02 7.98 20.4% 13.8% 41.7% 22.5% 21.4%

Glasnow carries an ERA of 7.98 with a hard contact rate of 22% and a soft contact rate of 21%. He also has an average strikeout rate, so how on Earth does he have an ERA close to 8.00? Great question. In seven starts, he has walked 21 batters and he currently has a .376 BABIP. The young righty has shown a lot of promise in the minor leagues; he just can’t seem to find the strike zone at the major league level. I want to be in on Glasnow before the masses, but he is a tough sell against a Nationals’ offense that has one of the highest walk rates of any team against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: The future is bright for Glasnow, but he needs to improve on his command before we can use him in DFS.

Batter Grind Down

Washington

When I’m looking at potential offenses to stack, I like to look for a few different things. Are they going to be able to get a lot of men on base? Are they an offense capable of hitting multiple home runs? And finally, could I realistically see the offense scoring double digit runs? When it comes to the Nationals today against Tyler Glasnow, the answer to all three of those questions is yes. His command continues to give opponents free base passes and we know the Nationals can capitalize with the power that they have against right-handed pitching. Oh, and lest I forget, Glasnow has allowed 20 stolen bases in 11 major league starts.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Trea Turner RIGHT 0.388 0.339 0.249 33.3% 4.7% 19.8% 42.6% SS $4,000 SS $4,800 IF/OF $9,300
2 Jayson Werth RIGHT 0.313 0.320 0.146 32.5% 11.2% 24.6% 41.7% OF $3,600 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
3 Bryce Harper LEFT 0.387 0.397 0.242 35.5% 19.0% 15.6% 39.4% OF $5,200 OF $5,600 RF $10,800
4 Daniel Murphy LEFT 0.412 0.399 0.249 38.9% 7.0% 9.4% 35.3% 2B $3,800 2B $4,700 2B $9,300
5 Ryan Zimmerman RIGHT 0.327 0.337 0.196 36.1% 5.5% 22.8% 45.4% 1B $4,200 1B $4,700 1B $9,200
6 Anthony Rendon RIGHT 0.338 0.344 0.180 35.0% 8.9% 18.5% 37.7% 3B $3,400 3B $4,200 3B $8,100
7 Matt Wieters SWITCH 0.313 0.323 0.169 33.1% 7.0% 18.0% 37.3% C $2,800 C $3,500 C $6,800
8 Michael Taylor RIGHT 0.274 0.265 0.141 31.2% 5.5% 31.4% 43.7% OF $3,500 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
9 Tanner Roark RIGHT 0.175 0.177 0.016 7.7% 6.6% 25.0% 56.1% P $8,200 P $8,900 P $17,400

Elite Plays – Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy

Secondary Plays – Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon, Matt Wieters

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are an underwhelming offense that is facing a pitcher that gives up a lot of soft contact. I was a bit surprised to see the over/under set at 9.0 runs, but it makes sense considering the fact that it is going to be 85 degrees at first pitch and we have a helping wind blowing out to left field. This brings a few Pirates’ hitters into play as one-off targets, but I’m not going overboard against a pitcher that has been tough on both left and right-handed hitters.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Adam Frazier LEFT 0.332 0.335 0.138 31.9% 7.4% 15.8% 42.4% 2B $2,700 2B/OF $3,100 IF/OF $6,000
2 Josh Harrison RIGHT 0.299 0.273 0.105 27.1% 3.6% 14.7% 43.9% 3B $2,800 2B/3B $3,600 2B $7,200
3 Andrew McCutchen RIGHT 0.311 0.330 0.158 34.8% 9.3% 21.4% 36.6% OF $3,100 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
4 John Jaso LEFT 0.335 0.334 0.155 31.1% 10.4% 17.2% 48.5% 1B $2,300 1B/OF $2,800 1B $5,400
5 David Freese RIGHT 0.321 0.324 0.133 32.6% 8.7% 27.6% 58.9% 3B $2,300 3B $2,900 3B $5,600
6 Josh Bell SWITCH 0.352 0.353 0.171 31.7% 12.9% 16.5% 50.0% 1B $2,800 1B $3,300 IF/OF $6,600
7 Francisco Cervelli RIGHT 0.307 0.319 0.099 28.0% 12.7% 19.1% 53.4% C $2,800 C $3,000 C $6,000
8 Jordy Mercer RIGHT 0.286 0.295 0.091 25.4% 8.7% 14.4% 49.5% SS $2,200 SS $2,600 SS $5,100
9 Tyler Glasnow RIGHT 0.302 0.279 0.000 20.0% 26.7% 40.0% 75.0% P $6,200 P $6,200 P $12,300

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, David Freese, Josh Bell

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Baltimore at Detroit – 1:10 PM ET

Baltimore Detroit
baltimoremlb Dylan Bundy detroitmlb Jordan Zimmermann
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
BAL-103 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.317 0.322 30.0% 7.8% 17.9% 34.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.331 0.342 35.0% 5.5% 14.4% 39.0%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.304 0.312 27.6% 8.3% 23.7% 33.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.378 0.355 28.2% 6.9% 13.9% 37.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Dylan Bundy
dylan-bundy-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,300 Salary: $9,100 Salary: $17,600
Salary Rank: 5 of 22 Salary Rank: 3 of 22 Salary Rank: 3 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 14 4.23 4.02 21.9% 8.9% 35.9% 28.0% 23.6%
2017 8 4.52 2.26 18.1% 6.0% 29.9% 30.7% 26.0%

Bundy has a 2.26 ERA on the season, but we can expect that to regress a bit. His BABIP, LOB%, and HR/FB% are all unsustainable, which isn’t exactly great news for his outlook moving forward. Bundy is a fly-ball pitcher whose strikeout rate is down nearly 4% this season. He is an easy fade today against the Tigers in Detroit. The over/under for this game is set at 10.0 runs, which is an automatic red flag for the pitchers.

Quick Breakdown: Bundy can be avoided in all formats.

Jordan Zimmermann
jordan-zimmermann-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,600 Salary: $5,900 Salary: $11,700
Salary Rank: 9 of 22 Salary Rank: 18 of 22 Salary Rank: 17 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 18 4.81 4.87 14.7% 5.8% 43.1% 27.3% 18.5%
2017 7 5.63 6.28 12.6% 7.5% 24.8% 42.3% 14.6%

Zimmermann is no longer good at baseball. Someone flipped the switch on his back from “good at baseball” down to “awful at baseball” and nobody seems to know how to reverse the process. In seven starts this season, he has a 5.63 SIERA with a strikeout rate of only 13%. He could be facing a minor league baseball team and I wouldn’t have much interest.

Quick Breakdown: Zimmermann should be avoided in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles should be licking their chops for today’s matchup against Jordan Zimmermann, who has a 25% ground ball rate and a 42% hard contact rate. Opponents are getting the ball in the air and they are making great contact. Over the last two seasons, Zimmermann has allowed a .342+ xwOBA to both left and right-handed hitters. This is going to be an exciting slate with so many offenses that have high implied run totals. The Orioles are right at the top of my list, as we basically don’t get better matchups than the one against Zimmermann.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Seth Smith LEFT 0.347 0.377 0.181 33.9% 11.3% 20.3% 46.6% OF $3,000 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
2 Adam Jones RIGHT 0.340 0.345 0.188 33.1% 5.7% 16.0% 43.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 CF $7,800
3 Manny Machado RIGHT 0.350 0.358 0.242 35.0% 6.9% 19.0% 37.4% 3B $3,900 3B $4,800 3B $9,300
4 Chris Davis LEFT 0.358 0.363 0.268 42.8% 14.4% 33.5% 37.0% 1B $3,800 1B $4,600 IF/OF $8,800
5 Mark Trumbo RIGHT 0.371 0.379 0.270 37.9% 7.6% 24.3% 39.4% OF $3,700 OF $4,300 IF/OF $8,400
6 Jonathan Schoop RIGHT 0.336 0.319 0.200 30.1% 2.8% 19.3% 42.8% 2B $3,100 2B $3,400 2B $6,800
7 Trey Mancini RIGHT 0.434 0.426 0.425 51.9% 4.5% 31.8% 44.4% 1B $3,200 1B/OF $3,500 1B $6,900
8 J.J. Hardy RIGHT 0.280 0.283 0.112 30.0% 4.4% 17.2% 42.8% SS $2,300 SS $2,800 SS $5,400
9 Caleb Joseph RIGHT 0.245 0.268 0.075 22.9% 3.9% 19.5% 42.2% C $2,600 C $2,800 C $5,600

Elite Plays – Seth Smith, Adam Jones, Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo

Secondary Plays – Jonathan Schoop, Trey Mancini

Stackability – GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers have a high implied run total as well, but I slightly prefer the Orioles. This is still an exploitable matchup though, as Dylan Bundy strikeout rate is down and I’ve already hit on the regression that could be looming. Bundy’s splits against left and right-handed hitters aren’t bad, but the Tigers are playing at home in a game that is expected to be a shootout. The one through six batters are all in play here.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ian Kinsler RIGHT 0.339 0.326 0.170 34.2% 7.4% 16.3% 33.7% 2B $3,600 2B $3,900 2B $7,600
2 Nick Castellanos RIGHT 0.354 0.391 0.194 40.1% 7.3% 25.2% 33.8% 3B $3,200 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
3 Miguel Cabrera RIGHT 0.386 0.454 0.245 41.9% 9.8% 17.4% 41.0% 1B $3,900 1B $4,300 1B $8,400
4 Victor Martinez SWITCH 0.344 0.384 0.177 41.2% 8.4% 14.6% 37.8% C $3,300 1B $3,700 1B $7,200
5 Justin Upton RIGHT 0.342 0.353 0.236 39.7% 9.5% 29.1% 39.4% OF $3,500 OF $4,000 LF $7,800
6 J.D. Martinez RIGHT 0.400 0.403 0.254 40.1% 10.6% 25.4% 42.9% OF $3,800 OF $4,500 RF $8,800
7 James McCann RIGHT 0.235 0.273 0.087 29.9% 6.1% 28.1% 42.3% C $2,500 C $3,200 C $6,400
8 Andrew Romine LEFT 0.288 0.293 0.129 25.9% 6.2% 19.1% 45.9% OF $2,500 2B/OF $3,000 IF/OF $6,000
9 Jose Iglesias RIGHT 0.263 0.258 0.065 17.0% 4.9% 11.9% 55.0% SS $2,200 SS $2,500 SS $4,800

Elite Plays – Nick Castellanos

Secondary Plays – Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez, Justin Upton, J.D. Martinez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Colorado at Minnesota – 1:10 PM ET

Colorado Minnesota
coloradomlb German Marquez minnesotamlb Ervin Santana
RIGHT RIGHT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
MIN-120 8.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.330 0.254 20.6% 7.1% 19.2% 58.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.274 0.297 27.7% 7.6% 18.5% 48.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.368 0.339 37.3% 6.9% 16.7% 44.0% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.284 0.312 29.6% 8.0% 21.5% 37.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

German Marquez
german-marquez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $8,200 Salary: $5,000 Salary: $10,000
Salary Rank: 6 of 22 Salary Rank: 21 of 22 Salary Rank: 20 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 3 3.97 5.23 15.3% 6.1% 54.9% 29.7% 13.5%
2017 4 4.15 4.88 20.4% 7.8% 47.3% 28.4% 13.5%

Marquez has a high ground ball rate and a league-average strikeout rate, but he’s not a pitcher that I am going to be targeting on a regular basis. He wasn’t spectacular in the minors and we don’t have a big enough sample size on him at the major league level. It would take a near perfect matchup for him to crack my radar and facing the Twins in Minnesota doesn’t exactly qualify. Marquez is a small underdog on the road in a game that features an over/under of 8.0 runs.

Quick Breakdown: Pitching is scarce, but Marquez isn’t going to make any of my lineups.

Ervin Santana
ervin-santana-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $9,300 Salary: $7,400 Salary: $14,800
Salary Rank: 2 of 22 Salary Rank: 10 of 22 Salary Rank: 9 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 30 4.29 3.38 19.9% 7.1% 42.6% 29.3% 19.0%
2017 8 4.61 1.50 20.3% 10.4% 44.9% 25.9% 25.9%

Santana is not as good as his 1.50 ERA suggests. Sure, he’s a decent pitcher, but there is a zero percent chance that he will be able to sustain a .128 BABIP and a 98% left on-base percentage. Those numbers are insanely lucky and that will eventually run out. In last night’s slate, I had him listed as an easy fade. However, the game was rained out and he is now pitching in a slate that is starving for decent pitching options. I hate to pay this much for a pitcher that should regress moving forward, but Santana is actually a decent play in all formats. The Rockies have been one of the worst offenses on the road this season.

Quick Breakdown: It’s crazy how a pitcher can go from being an easy fade in one slate to being one of the top options in the slate the next day.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies hit right-handed pitching very well, but a lot of that is aided by half of their games being played in Coors Field. Their matchup against Ervin Santana doesn’t look great on paper, as he has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .315 xwOBA and under a 30% hard contact rate in the last two seasons. Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado are viable one-off targets, but I’m not sure we need them in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Charlie Blackmon LEFT 0.411 0.376 0.285 39.3% 7.1% 17.5% 30.8% OF $4,200 OF $5,200 CF $10,200
2 DJ LeMahieu RIGHT 0.369 0.378 0.118 33.0% 9.7% 12.7% 53.1% 2B $3,100 2B $3,800 2B $7,600
3 Nolan Arenado RIGHT 0.378 0.345 0.268 36.9% 7.7% 14.0% 36.3% 3B $4,100 3B $4,900 3B $9,600
4 Carlos Gonzalez LEFT 0.351 0.342 0.186 35.4% 9.6% 18.4% 44.9% OF $2,900 OF $4,000 RF $7,600
5 Mark Reynolds RIGHT 0.395 0.330 0.237 31.3% 9.3% 24.4% 40.3% 1B $3,800 1B $4,400 1B $8,700
6 Ian Desmond RIGHT 0.327 0.306 0.160 30.6% 6.3% 25.6% 55.8% OF $3,700 1B/OF $4,400 LF $8,700
7 Gerardo Parra LEFT 0.296 0.293 0.160 35.1% 2.8% 19.3% 51.9% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 LF $7,200
8 Pat Valaika RIGHT 0.344 0.205 0.294 38.5% 0.0% 25.7% 48.0% SS $2,900 SS $3,300 SS $6,600
9 Tony Wolters LEFT 0.336 0.289 0.142 23.8% 8.9% 21.6% 41.9% C $2,300 C $2,900 C $5,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado

Stackability – ORANGE

Minnesota

The sample size is small with German Marquez, but so far, he has been a reverse-splits pitcher. He has allowed a .339 xwOBA with a 37% hard contact rate to righties in his first seven major league starts. He also has a lower strikeout rate and a lower ground ball rate against righties, which brings Brian Dozier and Miguel Sano into play. While I like the Twins’ offense, this is the only game in the early slate that doesn’t feature an over/under of at least 9.0 runs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Brian Dozier RIGHT 0.356 0.326 0.247 32.6% 9.3% 19.5% 39.1% 2B $4,000 2B $4,600 2B $8,800
2 Joe Mauer LEFT 0.338 0.389 0.133 33.5% 13.8% 14.5% 47.5% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
3 Miguel Sano RIGHT 0.353 0.351 0.245 43.3% 12.2% 36.7% 33.1% 3B $3,800 3B $4,700 IF/OF $9,200
4 Kennys Vargas SWITCH 0.318 0.293 0.252 33.7% 11.1% 34.0% 33.7% 1B $2,900 1B $3,600 1B $7,200
5 Max Kepler LEFT 0.342 0.320 0.210 34.9% 10.8% 18.9% 43.8% OF $3,200 OF $3,800 RF $7,500
6 Jorge Polanco SWITCH 0.311 0.305 0.116 23.7% 7.9% 12.6% 35.2% SS $2,900 SS $3,400 SS $6,600
7 Jason Castro LEFT 0.322 0.320 0.193 36.5% 12.5% 32.5% 42.2% C $2,600 C $2,900 C $5,700
8 Eddie Rosario LEFT 0.316 0.283 0.185 32.3% 3.4% 23.4% 45.1% OF $2,600 OF $3,300 LF $6,400
9 Byron Buxton RIGHT 0.285 0.235 0.176 23.2% 6.0% 36.2% 36.2% OF $2,800 OF $3,200 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Brian Dozier

Secondary Plays – Miguel Sano, Max Kepler

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Texas – 2:05 PM ET

Philadelphia Texas
philadelphiamlb Nick Pivetta texasmlb Martin Perez
RIGHT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
TEX-155 10.0
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.324 0.282 41.2% 8.3% 20.8% 41.2% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.277 0.305 22.6% 9.8% 19.2% 54.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.550 0.446 48.4% 6.5% 23.9% 35.5% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.338 0.363 33.1% 9.1% 10.9% 51.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

Nick Pivetta
nicholas-pivetta-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $6,100 Salary: $5,600 Salary: $11,200
Salary Rank: 18 of 22 Salary Rank: 19 of 22 Salary Rank: 18 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 3 3.91 6.14 22.9% 7.1% 37.5% 45.8% 8.3%

Pivetta will be making his fourth career major league start today against the Rangers. He was terrific in his three minor league starts earlier in the season and he currently has a 23% strikeout rate at the major league level. Unfortunately, he has to face a Rangers’ offense in a hitter-friendly ballpark on a day where the temperature is expected to be 85 degrees at first pitch. The fact that he is a large underdog in a game that features an over/under of 10.0 runs is all we need to know.

Quick Breakdown: Keep an eye on Pivetta moving forward, but avoid him today against the Rangers.

Martin Perez
martin-perez-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,000 Salary: $6,500 Salary: $12,800
Salary Rank: 15 of 22 Salary Rank: 14 of 22 Salary Rank: 13 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 33 5.11 4.39 12.1% 8.9% 53.2% 30.7% 15.9%
2017 8 5.20 3.89 14.1% 10.6% 45.9% 34.7% 15.3%

Perez is not a pitcher that makes my potential list of pitching targets – not today, and not in any slate. He has a very low strikeout rate, a high walk rate, and he is allowing a lot more hard contact this season. He has always relied on a high ground ball rate, but so far this season it is only at 46%, which is barely above the league average. The Phillies hit right-handed pitching well and we’ve already touched on the warm weather expected in Arlington.

Quick Breakdown: Even though he’s a sizable favorite, Perez is an easy fade in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies’ offense nearly laid an egg in a favorable matchup against Andrew Cashner last night. People will be hesitant to go back to the well, especially with all of the other options in this early slate. I don’t like their offense nearly as much as some of the other teams, but they are going to be super low owned and they draw a nice matchup against Martin Perez. In the last two seasons, Perez has allowed a .363 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to righties, while striking them out at a rate of only 11%. In any other slate, I would be all over the Phillies’ offense in this spot.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Cesar Hernandez SWITCH 0.340 0.287 0.093 22.1% 7.5% 19.6% 58.8% 2B $3,200 2B $4,100 2B $8,000
2 Aaron Altherr RIGHT 0.389 0.341 0.250 32.1% 12.7% 19.0% 47.2% OF $4,000 OF $4,200 LF $8,000
3 Odubel Herrera LEFT 0.301 0.286 0.078 23.0% 9.5% 22.0% 59.1% OF $3,200 OF $3,900 IF/OF $7,800
4 Maikel Franco RIGHT 0.338 0.359 0.215 38.0% 6.9% 17.2% 45.0% 3B $3,200 3B $4,000 3B $7,600
5 Tommy Joseph RIGHT 0.382 0.381 0.322 36.3% 10.4% 21.6% 33.0% 1B $3,400 1B $3,800 1B $7,500
6 Michael Saunders LEFT 0.372 0.308 0.268 29.9% 7.6% 28.5% 48.5% OF $2,500 OF $3,600 RF $7,200
7 Cameron Rupp RIGHT 0.409 0.318 0.281 40.9% 7.7% 28.8% 50.0% C $2,900 C $3,500 C $6,900
8 Daniel Nava SWITCH 0.377 0.396 0.050 33.3% 23.1% 19.2% 60.0% OF $2,400 OF $3,400 LF $6,600
9 Freddy Galvis SWITCH 0.235 0.261 0.115 25.8% 2.1% 18.0% 39.7% SS $3,100 SS $3,700 SS $7,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Cesar Hernandez, Aaron Altherr, Maikel Franco, Tommy Joseph, Cameron Rupp

Stackability – YELLOW

Texas

This is one of those slates where I want to play 20 different hitters and none of the pitchers. The Rangers get to face rookie Nick Pivetta at home in the hitter-friendly Globe Life Park. Texas currently has the highest implied run total of any team that is playing outside of Wrigley Field and that includes the five games in the late slate. The problem that I always have with the Rangers is that I never love any of their individual hitters. I tend to like the team more than the individual plays. With that said, the one through five batters and Joey Gallo are all viable options here in the early slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Delino DeShields RIGHT 0.282 0.243 0.104 20.5% 8.0% 27.1% 56.7% OF $2,800 OF $3,600 CF $7,200
2 Elvis Andrus RIGHT 0.339 0.322 0.142 27.4% 7.9% 13.7% 46.9% SS $2,900 SS $4,000 SS $7,800
3 Nomar Mazara LEFT 0.343 0.336 0.193 29.9% 7.5% 18.2% 43.9% OF $3,400 OF $4,200 RF $8,100
4 Jonathan Lucroy RIGHT 0.354 0.338 0.174 31.7% 7.7% 14.9% 42.2% C $2,800 C $3,900 C $7,600
5 Rougned Odor LEFT 0.331 0.300 0.242 34.2% 3.4% 21.5% 39.3% 2B $2,900 2B $4,100 2B $8,100
6 Mike Napoli RIGHT 0.326 0.336 0.237 34.7% 9.4% 29.7% 36.8% 1B $3,100 1B $4,100 1B $8,000
7 Joey Gallo LEFT 0.333 0.320 0.308 45.9% 14.2% 41.8% 24.6% 3B $3,000 3B $4,200 IF/OF $8,100
8 Shin-soo Choo LEFT 0.315 0.367 0.128 40.8% 13.1% 21.7% 48.5% OF $3,600 OF $4,100 RF $8,000
9 Jared Hoying LEFT 0.233 0.251 0.047 31.4% 6.5% 17.4% 37.1% OF $2,000 OF $2,400 LF $4,800

Elite Plays – Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Jonathan Lucroy, Rougned Odor

Secondary Plays – Elvis Andrus, Joey Gallo

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Cincinnati at Chicago Cubs – 2:20 PM ET

Cincinnati Chicago Cubs
cincinnatimlb Amir Garrett cubsmlb Jon Lester
LEFT LEFT
Vegas Moneyline Vegas Over/Under
CHC-200 10.5
Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB% Stats wOBA xwOBA HC% BB% K% GB%
SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.295 0.318 27.3% 5.3% 36.8% 63.6% SP vs. Left (2016-17) 0.229 0.264 27.5% 4.1% 26.6% 54.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.311 0.322 36.6% 10.1% 16.3% 42.4% SP vs. Right (2016-17) 0.291 0.284 26.5% 8.2% 24.2% 46.4%

Pitcher Grind Down

Amir Garrett
amir-garrett-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $7,300 Salary: $7,000 Salary: $13,800
Salary Rank: 12 of 22 Salary Rank: 13 of 22 Salary Rank: 12 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2017 6 4.61 4.25 18.9% 9.5% 44.7% 35.6% 14.4%

I’m typically a fan of the wind blowing out in Wrigley Field, but the last two slates haven’t been very fun. The pricing on the Reds and Cubs has been so cheap that it’s hard to justify fading either of these offenses in cash games. That’s the case again today, as we have 18-20 MPH winds blowing out to right field. Garrett doesn’t have a high enough ground ball rate or a high enough strikeout rate to stay out of trouble against the Cubs, especially when you factor in the wind.

Quick Breakdown: We can expect another high scoring game in Wrigley Field.

Jon Lester
jon-lester-300x200 FanDuel DraftKings FantasyDraft
Salary: $10,500 Salary: $11,300 Salary: $21,900
Salary Rank: 1 of 22 Salary Rank: 1 of 22 Salary Rank: 2 of 22
Stats Starts SIERA ERA K% BB% GB% HC% SC%
2016 32 3.61 2.44 24.8% 6.5% 46.9% 26.8% 18.9%
2017 8 3.86 3.45 24.6% 10.1% 54.0% 26.4% 20.2%

Lester is the most talented pitcher in the slate and he comes in as the biggest favorite on the board. He has an above-average strikeout rate, he induces a lot of ground balls, and he is great at limiting hard contact. While I still have him ranked as my number one pitcher in the slate, it’s closer than you might think. The wind blowing out at Wrigley can turn routine fly balls into home runs and we’ve already seen two high scoring games in this series. The one plus that I see here is that six of the eight projected staters (excluding the pitcher) for the Reds have an above-average ground ball rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Lester is the top pitching option in the slate. If he can keep the ball on the ground, he should be fine.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Even though I may end up using Jon Lester more than any other pitcher in the early slate, I am going to make sure to get some exposure to the Reds’ offense in my non-Lester lineups. This is what we like to call a hedge stack. With the wind blowing out to right field, we could easily see the Reds hit a couple of home runs. In addition to the power right-handed bats, I am also looking at Billy Hamilton and Joey Votto. Hamilton is 7-for-13 with two home runs and six stolen bases against Lester in his career, while Votto may benefit most from the wind blowing out to right field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Billy Hamilton SWITCH 0.255 0.253 0.088 16.7% 3.8% 19.6% 45.6% OF $3,700 OF $4,200 CF $8,100
2 Zack Cozart RIGHT 0.337 0.312 0.240 34.3% 7.7% 16.8% 41.1% SS $3,600 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
3 Joey Votto LEFT 0.372 0.347 0.182 31.0% 11.0% 21.9% 53.8% 1B $4,500 1B $4,600 1B $9,000
4 Adam Duvall RIGHT 0.371 0.360 0.288 40.5% 10.0% 24.7% 35.1% OF $3,400 OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,500
5 Eugenio Suarez RIGHT 0.379 0.352 0.248 37.8% 10.9% 24.7% 46.8% 3B $3,100 3B $3,600 3B $7,200
6 Scott Schebler LEFT 0.305 0.356 0.222 36.7% 3.9% 15.6% 45.0% OF $2,900 OF $3,400 RF $6,800
7 Jose Peraza RIGHT 0.289 0.317 0.093 22.4% 4.3% 12.0% 48.7% 2B $2,400 2B $3,200 2B $6,300
8 Devin Mesoraco RIGHT 0.282 0.331 0.042 20.0% 22.6% 12.9% 60.0% C $2,400 C $2,400 C $4,800
9 Amir Garrett LEFT 0.000 0.043 0.000 0.0% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% P $7,300 P $7,000 P $13,800

Elite Plays – Billy Hamilton, Adam Duvall

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza

Stackability – YELLOW

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have the highest implied run total yet again and it’s really not that close. They are facing a rookie left-handed pitcher that has struggled in his last few starts and the wind is blowing out to right field at 18-20 MPH (sorry if I sound like a broken record). All of the right-handed hitters in this lineup are in play, as is Anthony Rizzo, who is one of the few hitters that actually performs well in lefty/lefty matchups. The Cubs are the top offense to target in the slate and once again, we can stack them in both cash games and tournaments.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

# Player Bats wOBA xwOBA ISO HC% BB% K% GB% FD Pos. FD Sal. DK Pos. DK Sal. FDRFT Pos. FDRFT Sal.
1 Ben Zobrist SWITCH 0.352 0.316 0.165 29.4% 12.9% 18.3% 56.3% OF $2,800 2B/OF $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
2 Kris Bryant RIGHT 0.460 0.448 0.352 40.9% 15.7% 18.4% 30.3% 3B $4,300 3B $5,300 IF/OF $10,400
3 Anthony Rizzo LEFT 0.355 0.340 0.201 24.7% 10.1% 12.5% 44.4% 1B $4,100 1B $4,800 1B $9,200
4 Ian Happ SWITCH 2B $3,000 2B $3,800 IF/OF $7,600
5 Addison Russell RIGHT 0.339 0.336 0.235 30.2% 12.6% 22.2% 36.8% SS $3,200 SS $3,700 SS $7,200
6 Javier Baez RIGHT 0.327 0.306 0.154 30.6% 8.1% 20.8% 44.4% 2B $2,600 2B/SS $3,600 2B $7,200
7 Willson Contreras RIGHT 0.360 0.321 0.180 29.2% 5.9% 18.5% 58.0% C $2,900 C $3,600 IF/OF $7,200
8 Jon Lester LEFT 0.233 0.225 0.067 36.4% 14.3% 33.3% 75.0% P $10,500 P $11,300 P $21,900
9 Albert Almora RIGHT 0.419 0.294 23.7% 8.1% 12.2% 45.8% OF $2,400 OF $3,200 CF $6,400

Elite Plays – Ben Zobrist, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Ian Happ

Secondary Plays – Albert Almora

Stackability – GREEN

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious