MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-09-08 01:15:44

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Chicago Cubs								Pittsburgh
			Jon Lester							Jameson Taillon
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CHC-120							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.219	0.225	21.4%	2.9%	35.0%	55.4%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.362	0.343	27.5%	11.1%	15.0%	52.3%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.338	0.309	28.1%	8.7%	22.1%	45.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.337	0.276	33.0%	6.7%	27.0%	44.9%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jon Lester
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,700	Salary:		$10,400	Salary:		$20,000
	Salary Rank:		3 of 16	Salary Rank:		3 of 16	Salary Rank:		3 of 16
	2016	32	3.61	2.44	24.8%	6.5%	46.9%	26.8%	18.9%
	2017	26	3.84	4.37	24.9%	7.4%	47.1%	26.8%	20.8%
	L30	3	4.01	8.16	23.5%	5.9%	29.2%	29.2%	16.7%

With Clayton Kershaw and Corey Kluber on the mound, Jon Lester will be the forgotten ace in the slate. While he will come with lower ownership and a lower salary, he has a significantly lower floor and ceiling. As with many things in life, we get what we pay for. Lester hasn’t been in the best of form in his last three starts, but he’s facing a low strikeout offense of the Pirates. At the end of the day, I will be looking to pay up or pay down at pitcher in this slate.

Quick Breakdown: Lester has a decent matchup and decent upside, but I won’t have a lot of exposure in this small slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jameson Taillon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$14,000
	Salary Rank:		12 of 16	Salary Rank:		10 of 16	Salary Rank:		10 of 16
	2016	18	3.61	3.38	20.3%	4.1%	52.4%	33.2%	17.3%
	2017	20	4.25	4.75	21.7%	8.7%	48.4%	30.4%	23.9%
	L30	5	4.86	4.78	22.7%	12.6%	40.0%	35.1%	26.0%

Taillon has struggled in his last five starts, posting a 4.86 SIERA with a walk rate of 13% and a hard contact rate of 35%. He comes into this game as an underdog against the Cubs, who have the third highest team wOBA over the last 30 days. Taillon’s biggest struggle throughout his career has been with left-handed hitters (.343 xwOBA allowed this season) and the Cubs have plenty of them to throw at him tonight.

Quick Breakdown: Taillon has a low floor in a matchup against the Cubs, which makes him an easy fade in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs aren’t a priority in this slate. While there isn’t a game in Coors Field, there are 11 teams that currently have a higher implied run total right now. Jameson Taillon is a ground ball pitcher that induces a lot of soft and medium contact. While he has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters, the Cubs are facing him in a pitcher-friendly ballpark in a game with one of the lowest over/unders in the slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.331	0.309	0.108	27.9%	8.7%	20.1%	47.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
2	Kyle Schwarber	LEFT	0.333	0.352	0.266	38.0%	11.6%	29.1%	38.3%	OF	$3,800	OF	$4,400	IF/OF	$8,700
3	Kris Bryant	RIGHT	0.392	0.347	0.247	31.1%	12.6%	19.6%	37.0%	3B	$4,400	3B	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,600
4	Anthony Rizzo	LEFT	0.393	0.408	0.255	34.6%	13.5%	12.4%	38.2%	1B	$4,500	1B	$5,300	1B	$10,200
5	Ben Zobrist	SWITCH	0.320	0.329	0.153	33.6%	10.8%	13.5%	52.5%	OF	$3,500	2B/OF	$3,000	IF/OF	$6,000
6	Alex Avila	LEFT	0.386	0.430	0.223	54.9%	16.8%	31.6%	37.3%	C	$2,700	1B/C	$3,600	C	$7,200
7	Jason Heyward	LEFT	0.304	0.321	0.124	26.4%	8.7%	11.4%	48.0%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,400	RF	$6,600
8	Javier Baez	RIGHT	0.297	0.280	0.180	29.7%	6.1%	29.4%	48.7%	SS	$3,600	2B/SS	$3,800	2B	$7,600
9	Jon Lester	LEFT	0.158	0.237	0.069	33.3%	3.1%	40.6%	58.8%	P	$8,700	P	$10,400	P	$20,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrst, Alex Avila

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

The Pirates are ranked 24th in team wOBA against left-handed pitching this season and they draw one of the worst matchups in the slate. In addition to his above-average strikeout and ground ball rates, Jon Lester has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .310 xwOBA and under a 29% hard contact. If you are looking for value, rookie Jordan Luplow is at the very least intriguing. Andrew McCutchen is also cheap across the industry.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.157	0.234	0.032	27.7%	4.5%	23.9%	47.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,000	CF	$7,600
2	Sean Rodriguez	RIGHT	0.383	0.326	0.256	42.9%	16.7%	37.5%	15.0%	OF	$2,000	3B/OF	$2,000	2B	$4,000
3	Andrew McCutchen	RIGHT	0.449	0.407	0.380	42.7%	16.3%	14.7%	32.6%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.307	0.341	0.218	33.3%	8.2%	14.8%	50.5%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,100	IF/OF	$8,000
5	David Freese	RIGHT	0.366	0.370	0.128	35.2%	15.0%	21.2%	56.3%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,900
6	Jordan Luplow	RIGHT	0.077	0.200	0.000	20.0%	11.1%	33.3%	40.0%	OF	$2,600	OF	$2,500	LF	$4,800
7	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.310	0.308	0.164	40.7%	8.9%	16.3%	50.0%	SS	$2,400	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
8	Chris Stewart	RIGHT	0.101	0.212	0.067	32.1%	3.0%	12.1%	53.8%	C	$2,000	C	$2,000	C	$4,000
9	Jameson Taillon	RIGHT	0.000	0.152	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	25.0%	75.0%	P	$6,800	P	$7,100	P	$14,000

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jordan Luplow

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Philadelphia								Washington
			Aaron Nola							Tanner Roark
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			WAS-160							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.296	0.294	33.7%	9.2%	21.8%	46.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.357	0.345	30.8%	10.4%	19.1%	41.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.278	0.265	27.5%	5.1%	28.1%	51.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.258	0.283	24.0%	6.3%	23.1%	55.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Aaron Nola
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,400	Salary:		$8,500	Salary:		$16,400
	Salary Rank:		5 of 16	Salary Rank:		6 of 16	Salary Rank:		6 of 16
	2016	20	3.29	4.78	25.1%	6.0%	55.2%	28.8%	23.2%
	2017	22	3.76	3.46	25.0%	7.1%	48.9%	30.5%	23.4%
	L30	5	3.94	4.45	23.5%	6.8%	46.7%	33.0%	22.0%

Nola has been a rare bright spot for the Phillies this season. If you look at his pitching table above, every one of his statistics on the season is better than the major league average. In 22 starts, he has a 3.76 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 25% and a walk rate of 49%. While he has the talent, a pitcher’s matchup is half the battle when it comes to DFS. I don’t love the idea of picking on a Nationals’ offense that is ranked third in team wOBA and tenth in strikeotu rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I have a lot of respect for Nova, but this isn’t the best matchup to deploy him in.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tanner Roark
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$8,600	Salary:		$9,000	Salary:		$17,400
	Salary Rank:		4 of 16	Salary Rank:		5 of 16	Salary Rank:		5 of 16
	2016	33	4.32	2.83	20.1%	8.5%	48.7%	24.3%	23.1%
	2017	26	4.35	4.48	21.1%	8.4%	48.7%	27.4%	16.1%
	L30	6	3.88	3.08	24.2%	7.8%	54.9%	21.4%	19.4%

Roark isn’t a pitcher that I’m high on in the long run, but he has been in excellent form over his last month of play. In those six starts, he has a 3.88 SIERA (3.08 ERA) with a strikeout rate of 24% and a ground ball rate of 55%. He also draws one of the best matchups in the slate, as he gets to face a Phillies’ offense that is ranked 25th in team wOBA and 26th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.

Quick Breakdown: I rarely have interest in Roark, but he’s one of the top SP2 options in the slate tonight.

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

The Phillies see a negative ballpark shift playing in Washington, they are facing a pitcher that has been in good form recently, and they aren’t a great offense to begin with. Philadelphia has one of the lowest implied totals in the slate. Tanner Roark has struggled a bit against left-handed hitters this season if you want to give Nick Williams a look in tournaments, but the rest of the Phillies can be avoided in both cash games and GPPs.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Cesar Hernandez	SWITCH	0.339	0.304	0.113	23.4%	10.0%	20.9%	50.2%	2B	$3,500	2B	$3,700	2B	$7,200
2	Freddy Galvis	SWITCH	0.308	0.289	0.157	28.3%	7.8%	20.4%	35.5%	SS	$3,500	SS	$2,800	SS	$5,600
3	Nick Williams	LEFT	0.347	0.330	0.213	40.0%	7.8%	28.1%	50.5%	OF	$3,600	OF	$2,700	LF	$5,200
4	Rhys Hoskins	RIGHT	0.422	0.344	0.333	41.7%	7.7%	18.5%	29.2%	OF	$4,300	1B/OF	$4,600	1B	$8,800
5	Hyun-Soo Kim	LEFT	0.265	0.339	0.065	27.0%	8.9%	17.4%	45.2%	OF	$2,400	OF	$2,900	IF/OF	$5,600
6	Tommy Joseph	RIGHT	0.309	0.306	0.177	37.2%	5.3%	23.2%	42.7%	1B	$2,500	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,700
7	J.P. Crawford	LEFT								SS	$2,000	3B/SS	$2,600	SS	$5,200
8	Cameron Rupp	RIGHT	0.305	0.288	0.240	28.2%	7.7%	35.7%	48.2%	C	$2,500	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
9	Aaron Nola	RIGHT	0.087	0.106	0.000	0.0%	8.6%	54.3%	81.8%	P	$8,400	P	$8,500	P	$16,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams

Stackability – RED

Washington

The Nationals haven’t skipped a beat without Bryce Harper in the lineup. They are obviously a better team with him, but it goes to show how well rounded this ball club is. While I do expect them to give Tanner Roark some run support tonight, I’m not going to be actively targeting their offense. Aaron Nola has above-average ground ball and strikeout rates this season. He has also held both left and right-handed hitters under a .295 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trea Turner	RIGHT	0.366	0.324	0.181	26.0%	7.2%	16.6%	51.8%	SS	$4,000	SS	$4,900	IF/OF	$9,600
2	Alejandro De Aza	LEFT	0.160	0.145	0.048	25.0%	4.2%	45.8%	30.0%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,400	CF	$6,600
3	Daniel Murphy	LEFT	0.379	0.362	0.230	34.9%	8.6%	10.6%	33.3%	2B	$3,800	2B	$4,500	2B	$8,800
4	Anthony Rendon	RIGHT	0.389	0.365	0.223	34.6%	13.3%	15.3%	34.9%	3B	$3,500	3B	$4,300	3B	$8,400
5	Adam Lind	LEFT	0.363	0.378	0.217	40.5%	9.2%	15.3%	45.7%	OF	$2,900	1B/OF	$3,900	1B	$7,600
6	Jayson Werth	RIGHT	0.345	0.337	0.196	29.1%	11.2%	22.9%	41.0%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600
7	Matt Wieters	SWITCH	0.269	0.298	0.113	29.9%	7.1%	18.3%	41.4%	C	$2,600	C	$2,800	C	$5,600
8	Michael Taylor	RIGHT	0.314	0.275	0.193	32.1%	6.5%	33.1%	42.5%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,300	CF	$6,600
9	Tanner Roark	RIGHT	0.117	0.132	0.026	12.9%	2.2%	30.4%	73.9%	P	$8,600	P	$9,000	P	$17,400

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cincinnati								NY Mets
			Tyler Mahle							Matt Harvey
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CIN-105							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.262	0.252	42.9%	18.2%	18.2%	83.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.382	0.394	35.5%	12.3%	15.6%	36.1%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.346	23.1%	5.4%	16.2%	48.0%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.330	0.328	31.9%	9.4%	19.3%	53.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Tyler Mahle
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,400	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		14 of 16	Salary Rank:		11 of 16	Salary Rank:		11 of 16

	2017	2	4.75	2.45	16.7%	8.3%	54.8%	27.3%	21.2%
	L30	2	4.75	2.45	16.7%	8.3%	54.8%	27.3%	21.2%

Mahle will be making his third career major league start tonight against the Mets. In ten Triple-A starts earlier this season, he posted a 3.25 FIP with a strikeout rate of 21%. On a positive note, he gets to face a Mets’ lineup that closely resembles that of a Triple-A offense right now. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have the strikeout upside that we look for from a pitcher. We also have a game in Citi Field with a total of 9.0 runs, which is rare.

Quick Breakdown: Continue to take a wait and see approach with Mahle.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Matt Harvey
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,300	Salary:		$5,800	Salary:		$11,600
	Salary Rank:		15 of 16	Salary Rank:		15 of 16	Salary Rank:		15 of 16
	2016	17	4.31	4.86	18.9%	6.2%	40.8%	30.3%	24.3%
	2017	14	5.15	5.97	17.5%	10.8%	45.3%	33.6%	24.9%
	L30	1	3.37	31.50	20.0%	0.0%	45.5%	9.1%	18.2%

I hate to say, but I’m not sure we will ever see Harvey be a dominant pitcher in baseball ever again. I hate to give up on a young pitcher that once had so much promise, but Harvey looks lost and disinterested on the mound these days. He gave up seven earned runs in only two innings in his first start back from injury, which brought his season ERA up to 5.97. He has a below-average strikeout rate this season with an 11% walk rate and a 34% hard contact rate.

Quick Breakdown: Harvey hasn’t looked good in years and he draws a tough matchup tonight against the Reds.

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

The Reds are one of my favorite offenses in tonight’s slate. It’s rare to see a slate without a single team projected to score more than five runs, but that’s what we have tonight. Cincinnati draws an excellent matchup against Matt Harvey, who has struggled with batters from both sides of the plate this season. He has allowed a .394 xwOBA with a 36% hard contact rate to lefties and a .328 xwOBA with a 32% hard contact rate to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Phillip Ervin	RIGHT	0.356	0.320	0.353	23.1%	5.6%	22.2%	38.5%	OF	$2,000	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,300
2	Zack Cozart	RIGHT	0.377	0.322	0.222	29.1%	12.6%	15.9%	40.1%	SS	$3,100	SS	$4,500	SS	$8,800
3	Joey Votto	LEFT	0.431	0.430	0.264	37.2%	19.0%	10.7%	37.8%	1B	$4,400	1B	$5,600	1B	$10,800
4	Adam Duvall	RIGHT	0.322	0.288	0.236	33.1%	5.1%	27.3%	31.4%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,300
5	Scooter Gennett	LEFT	0.397	0.337	0.268	38.1%	6.9%	20.7%	40.9%	2B	$3,600	2B	$4,600	2B	$8,800
6	Eugenio Suarez	RIGHT	0.365	0.355	0.208	31.5%	12.9%	21.2%	38.8%	3B	$3,800	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,800
7	Scott Schebler	LEFT	0.336	0.362	0.261	40.0%	10.4%	23.7%	43.8%	OF	$3,000	OF	$3,500	RF	$6,800
8	Tucker Barnhart	SWITCH	0.316	0.333	0.118	34.3%	10.0%	16.5%	44.0%	C	$3,000	C	$3,100	C	$6,000
9	Tyler Mahle	RIGHT	0.219	0.120	0.000	33.3%	0.0%	25.0%	100.0%	P	$6,400	P	$6,700	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – Phillip Ervin (if batting leadoff), Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets

The Mets draw a boom or bust matchup against rookie Tyler Mahle. As strange as it sounds, this is actually one of my favorite games to target for hitters. I like all of the lefties in the Reds’ lineup and I like how cheap the Mets are tonight at home. Mahle didn’t have a high strikeout rate in the minors and the Mets have actually been swinging the bat well recently. Jose Reyes is one of my favorite contrarian plays on the board. In his last nine games, he has reached base 21 times (13 hits and eight walks) with four stolen bases during that stretch.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jose Reyes	SWITCH	0.288	0.284	0.142	25.8%	8.8%	13.0%	38.7%	SS	$3,100	3B/SS	$3,800	SS	$7,600
2	Norichika Aoki	LEFT	0.324	0.287	0.142	22.2%	6.5%	12.6%	55.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,800	LF	$7,600
3	Asdrubal Cabrera	SWITCH	0.313	0.333	0.169	37.6%	10.0%	16.8%	41.2%	3B	$3,200	2B/SS	$4,200	SS	$8,100
4	Travis d’Arnaud	RIGHT	0.258	0.297	0.153	34.5%	4.1%	15.2%	40.2%	C	$2,400	C	$3,000	C	$6,000
5	Brandon Nimmo	LEFT	0.350	0.332	0.091	37.0%	17.5%	25.8%	46.3%	OF	$2,900	OF	$3,200	LF	$6,300
6	Juan Lagares	RIGHT	0.308	0.242	0.124	27.4%	5.4%	20.8%	52.2%	OF	$2,700	OF	$3,600	CF	$7,200
7	Dominic Smith	LEFT	0.255	0.277	0.192	34.9%	3.7%	18.5%	54.0%	1B	$2,400	1B	$2,900	1B	$5,600
8	Gavin Cecchini	RIGHT	0.130	0.134	0.000	10.0%	0.0%	25.9%	55.0%	2B	$2,100	2B	$2,500	SS	$4,800
9	Matt Harvey	RIGHT	0.092	0.207	0.000	20.0%	0.0%	21.1%	50.0%	P	$6,300	P	$5,800	P	$11,600

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Travis d’Arnaud, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								Atlanta
			Dan Straily							Sean Newcomb
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			MIA-105							9.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.273	29.5%	8.1%	22.6%	35.7%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.342	0.364	28.8%	9.4%	24.3%	43.8%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.335	0.309	37.1%	6.2%	21.2%	32.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.342	0.327	27.8%	14.4%	22.2%	42.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Dan Straily
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,500	Salary:		$8,100	Salary:		$15,600
	Salary Rank:		9 of 16	Salary Rank:		7 of 16	Salary Rank:		7 of 16
	2016	31	4.67	3.76	20.5%	9.2%	32.0%	32.2%	14.8%
	2017	28	4.39	3.91	21.9%	7.1%	34.2%	33.3%	20.2%
	L30	5	4.69	4.55	20.9%	8.7%	36.4%	29.6%	19.8%

Straily is one of the few pitchers in this slate that offers an above-average strikeout rate, but he’s not on my radar tonight. His recent form hasn’t been great and he has to face a number of lefties tonight in a ballpark that was build for left-handed power. Straily is a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact and the Braves are an offense that doesn’t strikeout very often. If you take away his strikeout upside, Straily is a below-average pitcher.

Quick Breakdown: Straily is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Sean Newcomb
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:		$6,200	Salary:		$12,400
	Salary Rank:		11 of 16	Salary Rank:		13 of 16	Salary Rank:		13 of 16

	2017	15	4.87	4.31	22.8%	12.9%	42.5%	28.1%	18.0%
	L30	5	4.70	3.71	22.2%	11.9%	47.4%	23.8%	17.5%

Newcomb is similar to Straily in that without his above-average strikeout rate, he would be a below-average pitcher in DFS. I’m not going to be using Newcomb as an SP1 in any format tonight, but he does have some appeal as an SP2 on multi-pitcher sites. If we want to play Clayton Kershaw or Corey Kluber, we need to find a cheap SP2 to pair them with. Newcomb will have to deal with Giancarlo Stanton, but most of the batters in the Marlins’ lineup really struggle against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: At his price point, Newcomb is a viable SP2 tonight in both cash games and tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins draw a decent matchup against rookie Sean Newcomb. While SunTrust Park is better for lefties than it is for righties, the right-handed batters are the preferred targets tonight. On the season, Newcomb has allowed a .327 xwOBA with a 14% walk rate to batters from the right side of the plate. Giancarlo Stanton is the top overall play on the board, while Marcell Ozuna and J.T. Realmuto are also worth a look.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Dee Gordon	LEFT	0.284	0.231	0.026	11.2%	1.3%	11.9%	67.2%	2B	$3,800	2B	$3,900	2B	$7,800
2	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.473	0.466	0.453	41.9%	17.7%	15.4%	43.0%	OF	$4,700	OF	$5,500	RF	$10,800
3	Christian Yelich	LEFT	0.329	0.342	0.149	32.7%	6.8%	18.5%	56.1%	OF	$3,600	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
4	Marcell Ozuna	RIGHT	0.342	0.335	0.109	34.9%	11.3%	19.4%	53.5%	OF	$4,000	OF	$4,200	LF	$8,000
5	J.T. Realmuto	RIGHT	0.370	0.364	0.215	34.2%	11.1%	13.9%	38.0%	C	$2,600	C	$3,400	C	$6,600
6	Tyler Moore	RIGHT	0.192	0.238	0.081	31.0%	4.5%	31.8%	47.6%	1B	$2,000	1B	$2,700	IF/OF	$5,200
7	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.125	0.272	0.000	0.0%	0.0%	42.9%	0.0%	3B	$2,000	3B	$2,100	3B	$4,200
8	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.274	0.313	0.073	24.5%	8.1%	11.3%	34.7%	SS	$2,200	SS	$2,600	2B	$5,100
9	Dan Straily	RIGHT	0.000	0.055	0.000	16.7%	0.0%	50.0%	66.7%	P	$7,500	P	$8,100	P	$15,600

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

Dan Straily is a reverse-splits pitcher, but I’m more intrigued by the lefties in this lineup than I am the righties. Most of it has to do with the ballpark, but I also like the lefties more from a talent standpoint anyway. Freddie Freeman is the only hitter here that I would consider an elite play, but he still has a nagging wrist injury, which makes it tough to pay a premium for him. Ozzie Albies is still free on DraftKings ($2,200) and FantasyDraft ($4,100).

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Ender Inciarte	LEFT	0.334	0.286	0.111	24.6%	6.4%	14.7%	42.0%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,700	CF	$7,200
2	Ozzie Albies	SWITCH	0.297	0.277	0.121	35.4%	5.6%	19.6%	44.9%	2B	$3,300	2B	$2,200	2B	$4,100
3	Freddie Freeman	LEFT	0.443	0.433	0.309	37.0%	13.7%	15.0%	34.6%	1B	$4,000	1B/3B	$4,800	1B	$9,300
4	Matt Kemp	RIGHT	0.349	0.349	0.208	35.3%	4.2%	22.3%	48.0%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,100	LF	$6,000
5	Nick Markakis	LEFT	0.328	0.339	0.114	35.6%	11.3%	17.2%	45.8%	OF	$3,500	OF	$3,800	RF	$7,500
6	Kurt Suzuki	RIGHT	0.314	0.312	0.192	32.5%	5.5%	14.5%	36.9%	C	$2,900	C	$3,200	C	$6,400
7	Rio Ruiz	LEFT	0.246	0.309	0.099	27.7%	8.8%	26.5%	66.2%	3B	$2,000	3B	$3,200	3B	$6,400
8	Dansby Swanson	RIGHT	0.268	0.290	0.094	28.2%	10.4%	22.2%	50.0%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,000	SS	$6,000
9	Sean Newcomb	LEFT	0.078	0.064	0.000	0.0%	4.5%	63.6%	75.0%	P	$7,100	P	$6,200	P	$12,400

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies (DK & FDRFT), Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Chicago White Sox
			Corey Kluber							Carlos Rodon
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-220							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.258	0.260	31.6%	6.2%	31.5%	46.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.321	0.296	30.4%	7.3%	26.1%	43.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.231	0.240	27.8%	4.1%	36.9%	44.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.334	0.323	32.6%	11.4%	25.4%	44.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,600	Salary:		$13,100	Salary:		$25,500
	Salary Rank:		2 of 16	Salary Rank:		2 of 16	Salary Rank:		2 of 16
	2016	32	3.50	3.14	26.4%	6.6%	44.5%	27.6%	19.9%
	2017	24	2.70	2.56	34.3%	5.1%	45.5%	29.6%	23.5%
	L30	6	2.97	2.00	29.9%	3.0%	38.5%	28.2%	26.4%

Kluber is my favorite pitcher in the slate, which pains me to say considering the fact that Clayton Kershaw is pitching at home against the Rockies. Honestly, you can’t go wrong with any pitcher. The main difference between the two is their expected pitch count. Kluber has thrown at least 110 pitches in each of his last three starts, while Kershaw only threw 70 pitches in his first start back from injury. Kluber has been in near impeccable form recently, posting a 2.97 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 30% and a walk rate of 3% in his last six starts. He also gets to face the White Sox, who have one of the worst offenses in baseball.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber is my 1A in this slate with Kershaw close behind as my 1B.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Carlos Rodon
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:		$12,800
	Salary Rank:		7 of 16	Salary Rank:		12 of 16	Salary Rank:		12 of 16
	2016	28	3.91	4.04	23.5%	7.6%	44.1%	27.8%	16.3%
	2017	12	4.20	4.15	25.6%	10.4%	44.1%	32.1%	12.8%
	L30	5	4.58	3.52	19.7%	8.7%	47.1%	31.8%	14.8%

Rodon looked like he was ready to turn a corner a month ago, but has since struggled a bit. In his last five starts, he has a 4.58 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 20% and a walk rate of 9%. There will be times to target him down the stretch of the regular season, but this isn’t one of them. The Indians are currently ranked fifth in team wOBA and third in strikeout rate against left-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Rodon is a massive underdog in a bad matchup against Corey Kluber and the Indians.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Carlos Rodon has been tough on left-handed hitters throughout his career, but he has struggled with righties. On the season, he has allowed a .323 xwOBA and a 33% hard contact rate to batters from the right side of the plate. The Indians will likely throw nine righties at Rodon tonight and they make for an intriguing stack in a slate where they may finally get overlooked.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.374	0.353	0.220	40.9%	8.2%	13.7%	39.5%	SS	$4,200	SS	$5,100	SS	$9,900
2	Austin Jackson	RIGHT	0.431	0.369	0.245	31.3%	12.4%	19.0%	45.8%	OF	$3,300	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,100
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.379	0.349	0.236	33.9%	6.7%	11.9%	41.2%	2B	$3,800	2B/3B	$5,400	IF/OF	$10,500
4	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.361	0.389	0.188	38.7%	19.7%	22.2%	44.1%	1B	$4,000	1B	$4,500	1B	$8,700
5	Carlos Santana	SWITCH	0.336	0.340	0.185	32.4%	13.2%	8.7%	50.6%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,300	1B	$8,400
6	Yandy Diaz	RIGHT	0.383	0.433	0.061	48.0%	28.3%	17.4%	56.0%	3B	$2,300	3B/OF	$3,100	3B	$6,000
7	Brandon Guyer	RIGHT	0.315	0.310	0.114	22.2%	8.3%	21.5%	37.5%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,300	LF	$6,600
8	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.368	0.329	0.258	40.9%	10.7%	24.1%	44.3%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	C	$6,900
9	Greg Allen	SWITCH	0.560	0.448	0.250	66.7%	20.0%	20.0%	66.7%			OF	$3,100	CF	$6,000

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

The White Sox draw one of the two most difficult matchups in the slate. When Corey Kluber and Clayton Kershaw take the mound, we can basically forget that the opposing team is even in the DFS player pool. In addition to his elite strikeout rate, Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .260 xwOBA.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Yolmer Sanchez	SWITCH	0.315	0.282	0.135	25.3%	6.9%	19.8%	47.3%	2B	$2,600	2B/3B	$3,100	2B	$6,000
2	Yoan Moncada	SWITCH	0.357	0.335	0.217	46.2%	19.5%	34.5%	46.2%	2B	$2,500	2B	$3,100	2B	$6,000
3	Jose Abreu	RIGHT	0.340	0.340	0.219	38.7%	4.7%	17.3%	44.5%	1B	$2,700	1B	$3,400	1B	$6,800
4	Avisail Garcia	RIGHT	0.345	0.351	0.173	31.7%	5.9%	21.2%	51.4%	OF	$2,800	OF	$3,200	RF	$6,300
5	Nick Delmonico	RIGHT	0.423	0.350	0.271	34.7%	13.2%	14.7%	41.3%	OF	$2,800	1B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,600
6	Matt Davidson	RIGHT	0.303	0.299	0.259	41.3%	4.1%	41.2%	37.1%	3B	$2,400	1B/3B	$2,900	3B	$5,700
7	Omar Narvaez	LEFT	0.321	0.312	0.066	19.4%	12.8%	13.7%	43.1%	C	$2,000	C	$2,700	C	$5,200
8	Tim Anderson	RIGHT	0.261	0.258	0.142	28.5%	2.9%	26.5%	52.3%	SS	$3,100	SS	$3,300	SS	$6,400
9	Adam Engel	RIGHT	0.226	0.230	0.124	31.7%	5.5%	35.9%	40.9%	OF	$2,000	OF	$2,500	CF	$4,800

MLB Grind Down: Thursday, September 7th

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Stackability Rating System:

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Chicago Cubs

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrst, Alex Avila

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Andrew McCutchen, Jordan Luplow

Stackability – ORANGE

Philadelphia at Washington – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Philadelphia

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Williams

Stackability – RED

Washington

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Trea Turner, Daniel Murphy

Stackability – ORANGE

Cincinnati at NY Mets – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cincinnati

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Phillip Ervin (if batting leadoff), Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, Scott Schebler

Secondary Plays – Zack Cozart, Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

NY Mets

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Jose Reyes, Asdrubal Cabrera

Secondary Plays – Travis d’Arnaud, Brandon Nimmo

Stackability – YELLOW

Miami at Atlanta – 7:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Giancarlo Stanton

Secondary Plays – Marcell Ozuna, J.T. Realmuto

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Atlanta

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Freddie Freeman

Secondary Plays – Ender Inciarte, Ozzie Albies (DK & FDRFT), Matt Kemp, Nick Markakis

Stackability – YELLOW

Cleveland at Chicago White Sox – 8:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Francisco Lindor, Austin Jackson, Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Yandy Diaz, Yan Gomes

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Chicago White Sox

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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