MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 17th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2018-04-17 19:49:56

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The RotoGrinders MLB Grind Down will give you an in-depth analysis into the upcoming MLB schedule. This article will break down the numbers for every single game and give you analysis on which trends you can exploit. While matchups are a major factor in daily fantasy baseball, there are plenty of other factors to consider such as injuries, weather, and salaries.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. No sport has more variance than baseball. The best choice is not always the right choice but following the trends will win you money over time.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Stackability Rating System:

GREEN – A viable full stack in cash games and GPPs.
YELLOW – A viable mini-stack in cash games and full stack in GPPs.
ORANGE – A viable stack in large field GPPs.
RED – Not a recommended stack for cash games or GPPs.

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at Toronto – 3:07 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Kansas City								Toronto
			Eric Skoglund							Jaime Garcia
			LEFT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			TOR-165							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.363	0.321	33.3%	8.7%	13.0%	42.9%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.300	0.262	28.7%	3.9%	25.8%	57.7%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.459	0.375	36.6%	12.6%	12.6%	35.2%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.332	0.346	32.1%	11.0%	17.9%	53.0%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Eric Skoglund
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,500	Salary:			Salary:		$10,500
	Salary Rank:		27 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:		20 of 29
	2017	5	5.83	9.50	15.1%	12.9%	36.4%	34.3%	13.4%
	2018	1	6.71	9.64	4.0%	8.0%	36.8%	42.1%	15.8%

This game was postponed last night, so they will play a double-header today. I’ve only included the first game in the Grind Down, as the other one is not featured in any of the slate around the industry. Skoglund will take the mound against the Blue Jays in the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre. A quick glance at his pitching table above tells us all we need to know about Skoglund. Any pitcher with that many red boxes should not be on our radar. He owns a high SIERA, a low strikeout rate, and he’s a fly-ball pitcher that gives up a lot of hard contact.

Quick Breakdown: Skoglund is one of the best pitchers to pick on. He’s an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jaime Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,500	Salary:			Salary:		$13,100
	Salary Rank:		18 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29
	2017	27	4.54	4.41	19.2%	9.5%	54.8%	30.5%	20.7%
	2018	2	3.49	3.18	26.7%	8.9%	40.7%	46.4%	14.3%

Garcia is the ultimate troll when it comes to DFS. He does this every single year. He’ll string together a few good starts, he’ll become the chalk in a great matchup, and they he’ll get rocked and everyone will be left wondering why on earth they used him in cash games. I’m not saying that the Garcia train is going to come to a halt today, but I don’t expect him to sustain a 3.49 SIERA and a 27% strikeout rate all season. Now, even though I hate the idea of a chalky Garcia, he does make a lot of sense here. He’s cheap across the industry and he’s facing a Royals’ offense that does not fare well against southpaws. Their projected lineup has an average 22% strikeout rate against lefties.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia is viable as an SP2 in the all-day slate.

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

The Royals see a favorable ballpark shift playing in Toronto, but their offense is not equipped to left-handed pitching. They have a total of three batters in their projected lineup with an xwOBA over .305 against southpaws. While Jaime Garcia can struggle with his command at times, he typically has a high ground ball rate and an average strikeout rate. This is far from an ideal matchup and I’d much rather take my chances with Garcia rather than the Royals’ offense.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Jon Jay	LEFT	0.337	0.357	0.021	18.2%	13.8%	18.1%	51.4%	OF	$2,100	CF	$5,800
2	Whit Merrifield	RIGHT	0.338	0.338	0.180	34.2%	5.4%	15.4%	38.3%	2B	$3,100	IF/OF	$7,500
3	Mike Moustakas	LEFT	0.316	0.304	0.184	30.3%	3.3%	16.6%	41.7%	3B	$3,600	3B	$8,300
4	Lucas Duda	LEFT	0.260	0.279	0.193	34.8%	6.4%	36.8%	40.6%	1B	$2,500	1B	$6,500
5	Jorge Soler	RIGHT	0.266	0.348	0.167	48.5%	10.9%	29.1%	39.4%	OF	$2,200	RF	$5,400
6	Cheslor Cuthbert	RIGHT	0.275	0.253	0.108	21.7%	5.7%	27.1%	43.5%	1B	$2,300	3B	$5,700
7	Paulo Orlando	RIGHT	0.350	0.374	0.111	33.3%	0.0%	21.4%	33.3%	OF	$2,400	RF	$5,800
8	Alcides Escobar	RIGHT	0.325	0.293	0.155	32.8%	5.2%	15.6%	40.3%	SS	$2,500	SS	$5,500
9	Cam Gallagher	RIGHT	0.246	0.417	0.000	14.3%	10.0%	20.0%	14.3%	C	$2,100	C	$4,600

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

The Blue Jays are playing at home in a hitter-friendly ballpark and they have arguably the best matchup of the entire all-day slate. In his last six major league starts, Skoglund has allowed a .321 xwOBA to lefties and a .375 xwOBA to righties. During that same stretch, he has a low strikeout rate and a high hard contact rate. The Blue Jays are cheap across the industry and they have the highest implied run total of any team in the main slate. I know that anything can happen in baseball, but everything is lining up for Toronto’s offense. The only negative is that you can’t stack Toronto in the main slate tonight.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Steve Pearce	RIGHT	0.332	0.341	0.265	36.4%	7.8%	22.4%	39.0%	OF	$2,800	1B	$5,700
2	Teoscar Hernandez	RIGHT	0.293	0.329	0.296	33.3%	0.0%	46.4%	13.3%	OF	$2,800	CF	$4,500
3	Justin Smoak	SWITCH	0.413	0.399	0.211	35.3%	12.2%	14.6%	37.8%	1B	$3,900	1B	$8,700
4	Yangervis Solarte	SWITCH	0.260	0.311	0.079	27.6%	9.4%	9.4%	46.5%	3B	$3,300	2B	$7,200
5	Russell Martin	RIGHT	0.271	0.329	0.114	34.8%	14.0%	29.1%	35.6%	C	$2,300	C	$5,500
6	Kevin Pillar	RIGHT	0.384	0.334	0.221	30.5%	6.0%	14.5%	40.0%	OF	$2,800	CF	$6,500
7	Aledmys Diaz	RIGHT	0.251	0.261	0.048	23.5%	8.7%	17.4%	38.0%	SS	$2,600	SS	$5,700
8	Randal Grichuk	RIGHT	0.272	0.350	0.182	38.5%	7.6%	26.9%	29.5%	OF	$2,100	LF	$5,900
9	Devon Travis	RIGHT	0.412	0.437	0.286	25.0%	10.3%	17.9%	39.3%	2B	$2,200	2B	$5,900

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Aledmys Diaz, Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Miami								NY Yankees
			Jarlin Garcia							Masahiro Tanaka
			LEFT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			NYY-300							9.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.246	0.295	30.2%	5.7%	22.8%	44.6%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.307	0.322	30.9%	5.2%	26.4%	53.9%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.296	0.325	25.0%	10.1%	15.7%	41.4%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.340	0.318	32.3%	5.3%	25.4%	43.7%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jarlin Garcia
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$5,700	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		25 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	0	4.37	4.73	18.7%	7.6%	39.0%	27.2%	18.5%
	2018	1	4.04	1.13	19.3%	10.5%	57.5%	27.5%	15.0%

Once again, we have a game in New York that starts a half-hour earlier than usual. This is frustrating because the sites don’t want to move lineup lock, so we end up with games that aren’t included in any slates other than the all-day slates, which don’t offer much in terms of guaranteed contests. Garcia doesn’t deserve consideration in any format in any slate. He is an inexperienced lefty that is facing the Yankees in a home run-friendly ballpark.

Quick Breakdown: Garcia is an easy fade in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Masahiro Tanaka
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$9,200	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		4 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	30	3.52	4.74	25.8%	5.5%	49.2%	31.4%	19.5%
	2018	3	3.06	5.19	26.1%	2.9%	34.7%	34.7%	20.4%

Tanaka’s advanced stats look better than his ERA, which is exactly what happened in 2017. His SIERA is currently two full runs lower than his ERA. Personally, I believe that SIERA is more predictive than ERA, so Tanaka should see some positive regression moving forward. He has great command and a high strikeout rate, he just needs to keep the ball in the park. He should be able to do that tonight against the Marlins, who have little firepower to speak of outside of Justin Bour. This isn’t a high-strikeout offense, but Tanaka doesn’t need a great matchup to rack up strikeouts. He’s had a 26% strikeout rate in each of the last two seasons.

Quick Breakdown: Tanaka is an elite play in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Miami

The Marlins see a favorable ballpark bump playing in New York. They also get to utilize the designated hitter since they are playing in an American League ballpark. While those are both positives for the Marlins, they are still an easy offense to fade outside of Justin Bour. Since the beginning of last season, Masahiro Tanaka has an elite strikeout rate and has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .325 xwOBA and under a 33% hard contact rate. Bour is viable in tournaments thanks to his power and to the short porch in right field.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Derek Dietrich	LEFT	0.317	0.322	0.178	33.9%	7.5%	20.8%	36.0%	OF	$2,700	N/A	N/A
2	Miguel Rojas	RIGHT	0.335	0.317	0.086	22.6%	8.1%	10.7%	52.6%	SS	$2,800	N/A	N/A
3	Starlin Castro	RIGHT	0.322	0.306	0.143	28.8%	3.9%	19.6%	52.1%	2B	$2,900	N/A	N/A
4	Justin Bour	LEFT	0.378	0.402	0.252	40.4%	10.8%	20.0%	41.6%	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
5	Brian Anderson	RIGHT	0.336	0.311	0.109	26.8%	14.4%	19.8%	57.7%	3B	$2,700	N/A	N/A
6	Tomas Telis	SWITCH	0.293	0.293	0.099	27.9%	4.1%	12.4%	55.7%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A
7	Cameron Maybin	RIGHT	0.304	0.296	0.156	24.7%	13.1%	21.7%	57.1%	OF	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	JB Shuck	LEFT	0.623	0.441	0.286	28.6%	12.5%	0.0%	57.1%	OF	$2,200	N/A	N/A
9	Bryan Holaday	RIGHT	0.226	0.270	0.068	14.6%	6.4%	6.4%	39.0%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

The Yankees were one of my favorite stacks yesterday and they put up 12 runs. Why oh why can’t this game be included in the main slate? They are one of the top offenses to target once again, as they square off against Jarlin Garcia, who is only making his second career major league start. The sample size is small, but Garcia has allowed a .325 xwOBA and a 10% walk rate to right-handed hitters. A full Yankees’ stack is certainly viable here, while Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gary Sanchez are all elite plays individually.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brett Gardner	LEFT	0.273	0.311	0.076	20.0%	9.4%	16.6%	50.0%	OF	$3,400	N/A	N/A
2	Aaron Judge	RIGHT	0.417	0.451	0.279	47.9%	26.2%	30.4%	31.0%	OF	$5,100	N/A	N/A
3	Giancarlo Stanton	RIGHT	0.496	0.472	0.464	45.1%	16.6%	16.0%	44.2%	OF	$4,900	N/A	N/A
4	Didi Gregorius	LEFT	0.286	0.269	0.089	15.4%	4.1%	14.1%	35.6%	SS	$4,200	N/A	N/A
5	Gary Sanchez	RIGHT	0.380	0.395	0.300	38.2%	10.4%	23.1%	39.3%	C	$3,900	N/A	N/A
6	Neil Walker	SWITCH	0.271	0.269	0.083	28.2%	10.1%	17.4%	34.2%	1B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
7	Tyler Austin	RIGHT	0.416	0.451	0.269	35.0%	12.5%	25.0%	35.0%	1B	$3,000	N/A	N/A
8	Miguel Andujar	RIGHT	0.239	0.217	0.000	9.1%	7.1%	14.3%	45.5%	3B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
9	Ronald Torreyes	RIGHT	0.317	0.232	0.038	15.7%	4.8%	11.9%	65.7%	2B	$2,500	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Neil Walker, Tyler Austin

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Detroit – 6:40 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Baltimore								Detroit
			Andrew Cashner							Francisco Liriano
			RIGHT							LEFT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			DET-100							8.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.320	0.341	29.2%	12.2%	14.1%	36.8%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.274	0.277	19.5%	6.0%	22.2%	52.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.294	0.337	28.8%	6.8%	12.4%	56.7%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.366	0.380	35.1%	13.8%	17.8%	41.5%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Andrew Cashner
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,100	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		15 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	28	5.52	3.40	12.2%	9.1%	48.6%	28.4%	18.5%
	2018	3	4.36	2.50	22.5%	11.3%	39.1%	34.8%	10.9%

I’m not going to lie, I played Cashner in his last start against the Blue Jays. I recommended him in the Grind Down and felt compelled to play him. While he didn’t pick up the win, he pitched seven shutout innings and picked up six strikeouts. The reasoning for the play was simple — he was facing a right-handed heavy lineup that had a high strikeout rate. It’s basically the same situation tonight, as the Tigers are projected to have five righties in their lineup tonight. They also have six batters with at least a 20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Now, since this game is not included in the main slate, it’s hard to argue using Cashner as an SP1.

Quick Breakdown: I don’t hate the spot for Cashner, but he’s an easy fade in the all-day slate.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Francisco Liriano
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,600	Salary:			Salary:
	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		of 29	Salary Rank:
	2017	18	5.09	5.66	19.4%	12.1%	44.9%	29.6%	16.8%
	2018	2	5.23	2.13	14.6%	10.4%	38.9%	44.4%	13.9%

Liriano was hoping to find new life in Detroit, but his first two starts have not been great. His ERA of 2.13 doesn’t tell the whole story. He currently owns a 5.23 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 15% and a walk rate of 10%. He isn’t getting as many swings and misses at this point of his career and he can’t seem to find the strike zone. He’s an easy fade tonight against the Orioles, who will likely have eight right-handed hitters in their lineup.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Liriano in all formats.

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

The Orioles draw an exploitable matchup against Francisco Liriano. His strikeout rate is trending in the wrong direction and he continues to walk batters at a high rate. Since the beginning of last season, Liriano has allowed a .380 xwOBA and a 35% hard contact rate to right-handed hitters. Manny Machado owns a .396 xwOBA and a 44% hard contact rate against southpaws and we can surround him with the likes of Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry, Adam Jones, and Danny Valencia.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Trey Mancini	RIGHT	0.316	0.317	0.116	32.8%	4.9%	24.6%	53.9%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
2	Craig Gentry	RIGHT	0.310	0.309	0.164	30.6%	6.8%	26.0%	50.0%	OF	$2,300	N/A	N/A
3	Manny Machado	RIGHT	0.359	0.396	0.276	44.4%	6.5%	15.2%	37.3%	SS	$4,300	N/A	N/A
4	Adam Jones	RIGHT	0.322	0.328	0.144	31.3%	6.8%	17.6%	43.1%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
5	Danny Valencia	RIGHT	0.344	0.365	0.194	39.5%	13.9%	20.5%	45.9%	3B	$2,200	N/A	N/A
6	Chris Davis	LEFT	0.277	0.316	0.131	33.3%	9.7%	40.6%	34.5%	1B	$2,300	N/A	N/A
7	Tim Beckham	RIGHT	0.339	0.336	0.185	38.8%	8.4%	28.7%	49.0%	2B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
8	Anthony Santander	SWITCH	0.210	0.170	0.053	22.2%	9.5%	47.6%	44.4%	OF	$2,000	N/A	N/A
9	Caleb Joseph	RIGHT	0.329	0.375	0.216	39.6%	5.1%	26.6%	37.7%	C	$2,000	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

The Tigers have a relatively high implied run total and a favorable matchup (on paper) against Andrew Cashner. With that said, they don’t really have the lineup needed to take advantage of Cashner’s splits. Since the start of last season, Cashner has a 57% ground ball rate against righties and he has held batters from both sides under a 30% hard contact rate. Nick Castellanos is a decent one-off target given his low ground ball rate, but the rest of the Tigers are easy fades in the all-day slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Leonys Martin	LEFT	0.254	0.290	0.096	25.0%	7.5%	23.9%	35.9%	OF	$3,000	N/A	N/A
2	Jeimer Candelario	SWITCH	0.327	0.312	0.156	25.7%	10.2%	20.5%	46.0%	3B	$2,600	N/A	N/A
3	Miguel Cabrera	RIGHT	0.292	0.375	0.143	42.0%	8.9%	20.0%	42.6%	1B	$3,200	N/A	N/A
4	Nick Castellanos	RIGHT	0.328	0.375	0.186	43.8%	6.3%	22.8%	35.8%	OF	$3,100	N/A	N/A
5	Victor Martinez	SWITCH	0.313	0.376	0.130	43.6%	8.9%	14.2%	38.0%	C	$2,300	N/A	N/A
6	Niko Goodrum	SWITCH	0.244	0.286	0.125	34.8%	5.9%	26.5%	65.2%	1B	$2,400	N/A	N/A
7	James McCann	RIGHT	0.269	0.304	0.107	36.4%	5.8%	25.4%	39.0%	C	$2,100	N/A	N/A
8	Jose Iglesias	RIGHT	0.274	0.258	0.114	27.2%	4.2%	15.0%	52.7%	SS	$2,100	N/A	N/A
9	Dixon Machado	RIGHT	0.301	0.294	0.100	34.9%	4.7%	18.3%	53.9%	2B	$2,300	N/A	N/A

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Colorado								Pittsburgh
			Chad Bettis							Trevor Williams
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			PIT-140							8.0
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.320	34.4%	6.9%	19.2%	47.3%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.329	0.309	24.3%	7.0%	15.5%	47.5%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.347	0.353	28.8%	7.1%	12.1%	45.8%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.285	0.334	35.3%	9.5%	20.0%	47.3%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Chad Bettis
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$6,900	Salary:		$13,800
	Salary Rank:		21 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29	Salary Rank:		12 of 29
	2017	9	4.74	5.05	15.0%	5.5%	48.4%	28.5%	18.4%
	2018	3	4.97	2.04	17.1%	11.4%	40.4%	40.8%	16.3%

This is the first game of the main slate and one that doesn’t offer a ton of fantasy appeal. Bettis is a low-strikeout pitcher that relies on a high ground ball rate and a low hard contact rate. When that’s not accompanied by a decent strikeout rate, it highlights any mistakes that a pitcher makes. To make matters worse, the Pirates have one of the lowest strikeout rates in baseball. Their projected lineup has a .323 xwOBA and a 19% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.

Quick Breakdown: Avoid Bettis in all formats.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Trevor Williams
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$6,800	Salary:		$6,700	Salary:		$13,200
	Salary Rank:		16 of 29	Salary Rank:		14 of 29	Salary Rank:		13 of 29
	2017	25	4.63	4.07	18.2%	8.1%	48.0%	28.9%	21.8%
	2018	3	5.05	1.56	14.5%	10.1%	42.3%	36.5%	19.2%

Williams is another pitcher that we can gloss over tonight. We have a ton of games to choose from, so we can afford to be picky with our selections. In his three starts this season, Williams owns a 5.05 SIERA, a 15% strikeout rate, and a 10% walk rate. The one positive for Williams is his matchup against the Rockies. Their projected lineup has a .288 xwOBA and a massive 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Williams is a sizable favorite and he’s cheap across the industry.

Quick Breakdown: Williams is far from a core play given his low strikeout rate, but I do like the matchup. He’s worth a look as an SP2 in tournaments.

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

The Rockies are playing on the road in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Their offense had a big outing last night, but they tend to struggle away from Coors Field. They have one of the lowest implied run totals on the board tonight. While their matchup against Trevor Williams doesn’t look terrible on paper, he’s not a pitcher that we really want to load up on. Over the last two seasons, Williams has had some serious reverse splits, holding lefties to a .309 xwOBA while allowing a .334 xwOBA to righties.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	DJ LeMahieu	RIGHT	0.320	0.328	0.075	28.5%	8.4%	14.5%	55.8%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,200	2B	$8,100
2	Chris Iannetta	RIGHT	0.348	0.336	0.237	38.5%	10.5%	29.6%	33.6%	C	$2,200	C	$3,300	C	$6,700
3	Charlie Blackmon	LEFT	0.422	0.381	0.301	41.3%	10.2%	19.8%	35.0%	OF	$4,600	OF	$5,200	CF	$9,800
4	Carlos Gonzalez	LEFT	0.359	0.332	0.199	31.2%	12.0%	20.1%	44.0%	OF	$3,000	OF	$4,000	RF	$7,200
5	Gerardo Parra	LEFT	0.324	0.319	0.152	36.6%	5.4%	14.5%	47.8%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,800
6	Ian Desmond	RIGHT	0.292	0.249	0.100	27.8%	5.9%	24.7%	62.6%	1B	$2,700	1B/OF	$3,700	LF	$7,600
7	Trevor Story	RIGHT	0.283	0.278	0.171	36.6%	7.7%	34.2%	34.5%	SS	$2,900	SS	$3,700	SS	$7,700
8	Ryan McMahon	LEFT	0.211	0.236	0.029	17.4%	12.8%	28.2%	78.3%	3B	$2,000	1B/2B	$3,200	1B	$6,500
9	Chad Bettis	RIGHT	0.189	0.137	0.000	16.7%	7.1%	50.0%	50.0%	P	$6,000	P	$6,900	P	$13,800

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta, Charlie Blackmon

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

The Pirates have a nice matchup against Chad Bettis, but they aren’t a team that we typically want to load up on. They don’t have a ton of power in their lineup and their home ballpark is more of a pitcher-friendly environment. As far as the splits go, Bettis is also a reverse-splits pitcher. Since the start of last season, he has allowed a .320 xwOBA to lefties and a .347 xwOBA to righties. The Pirates are best suited as the last piece into a lineup.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Adam Frazier	LEFT	0.328	0.335	0.142	29.5%	8.4%	12.2%	47.5%	OF	$2,200	2B/OF	$3,300	IF/OF	$6,800
2	Gregory Polanco	LEFT	0.320	0.340	0.187	29.1%	8.0%	13.0%	40.1%	OF	$4,500	OF	$5,000	RF	$9,100
3	Starling Marte	RIGHT	0.349	0.333	0.138	26.2%	7.2%	17.3%	47.4%	OF	$4,100	OF	$4,100	CF	$8,200
4	Josh Bell	SWITCH	0.343	0.333	0.205	33.1%	11.1%	19.7%	51.8%	1B	$3,700	1B	$4,000	1B	$7,700
5	Corey Dickerson	LEFT	0.344	0.335	0.225	35.2%	5.9%	22.7%	38.1%	OF	$4,200	OF	$4,300	LF	$8,400
6	Francisco Cervelli	RIGHT	0.326	0.342	0.130	33.7%	10.9%	19.2%	47.6%	C	$2,800	C	$3,400	C	$6,300
7	Colin Moran	LEFT	0.369	0.429	0.167	37.8%	10.6%	10.6%	37.8%	3B	$2,900	3B	$3,500	3B	$6,500
8	Jordy Mercer	RIGHT	0.310	0.304	0.147	28.1%	9.5%	15.5%	47.1%	SS	$2,700	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,500
9	Trevor Williams	RIGHT	0.075	0.157	0.000	11.1%	4.3%	37.0%	63.6%	P	$6,800	P	$6,700	P	$13,200

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Colin Moran

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Minnesota (Puerto Rico) – 7:10 PM ET

Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	Stats	wOBA	xwOBA	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%
Cleveland								Minnesota
			Corey Kluber							Jake Odorizzi
			RIGHT							RIGHT
			Vegas Moneyline							Vegas Over/Under
			CLE-170							7.5
SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.248	0.266	31.1%	6.1%	32.3%	44.5%	SP vs. Left (2016-17)	0.293	0.315	30.2%	10.1%	19.9%	28.4%
SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.224	0.245	28.2%	3.5%	35.5%	45.3%	SP vs. Right (2016-17)	0.322	0.335	39.5%	10.9%	21.5%	32.8%

Pitcher Grind Down

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Corey Kluber
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$11,400	Salary:		$12,100	Salary:		$23,200
	Salary Rank:		1 of 29	Salary Rank:		1 of 29	Salary Rank:		1 of 29
	2017	29	2.68	2.25	34.1%	4.6%	44.5%	28.9%	24.4%
	2018	3	2.30	1.57	33.3%	4.9%	49.0%	36.0%	18.0%

The Klubs takes the mound tonight against the Twins. He is off to a tremendous start this season, posting a 2.30 SIERA with a strikeout rate of 33% and a walk rate of 5%. In addition to the elite strikeout rate, he is very good at inducing soft and medium contact. He draws a boom or bust type of matchup against the Twins. While they do hit right-handed pitching very well, they have five projected starters with a 21%+ strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Even though this isn’t a great matchup, I’m willing to bet on the talent of Kluber.

Quick Breakdown: Kluber isn’t the best point-per-dollar option on the board, but he deserves consideration as the number one pitching option when you exclude salaries.

	Stats	Starts	SIERA	ERA	K%	BB%	GB%	HC%	SC%
Jake Odorizzi
	FanDuel			DraftKings			FantasyDraft
	Salary:		$7,600	Salary:		$6,000	Salary:		$12,100
	Salary Rank:		11 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29	Salary Rank:		17 of 29
	2017	28	4.90	4.14	21.0%	10.1%	30.6%	36.8%	15.3%
	2018	3	5.22	2.20	19.1%	14.7%	34.1%	24.4%	20.0%

Odorizzi has a low ERA this season, but don’t fall for the trap. In three starts, he has a 5.22 SIERA, a walk rate of 15%, and a below-average strikeout rate. Regression is coming and when it hits, it’s going to be ugly. He draws a difficult matchup tonight against the Indians, who are one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching. As a large underdog, Odorizzi is an easy fade in all formats.

Quick Breakdown: Odorizzi’s numbers are not sustainable. It’s only a matter of time before regression catches up to him.

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

The Indians draw a favorable matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who could be on the wrong side of regression here shortly. Throughout his career, Odorizzi has given up a higher xwOBA and hard contact rate to right-handed hitters than he has to lefties, which brings Edwin Encarnacion into play. He is one of the only righties in this lineup and he owns a .395 xwOBA against right-handed pitching. Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, and Michael Brantley are viable as part of a complete stack, but there are better offenses to target in this slate.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Francisco Lindor	SWITCH	0.339	0.362	0.231	33.3%	8.2%	13.8%	39.6%	SS	$4,600	SS	$4,600	SS	$8,500
2	Jason Kipnis	LEFT	0.293	0.312	0.181	33.7%	6.8%	20.3%	33.3%	2B	$3,400	2B	$3,100	2B	$5,500
3	Jose Ramirez	SWITCH	0.383	0.353	0.264	31.2%	9.8%	10.5%	38.0%	3B	$4,100	3B	$4,800	IF/OF	$9,100
4	Michael Brantley	LEFT	0.355	0.369	0.169	38.9%	10.0%	13.5%	48.5%	OF	$3,200	OF	$3,900	LF	$7,300
5	Edwin Encarnacion	RIGHT	0.373	0.395	0.263	37.6%	13.0%	19.6%	34.8%	1B	$3,400	1B	$4,900	1B	$9,200
6	Yonder Alonso	LEFT	0.374	0.387	0.229	35.9%	14.0%	22.4%	34.2%	1B	$2,900	1B	$3,800	1B	$7,400
7	Yan Gomes	RIGHT	0.281	0.269	0.125	25.4%	7.7%	26.4%	39.7%	C	$2,600	C	$3,500	C	$6,500
8	Tyler Naquin	LEFT	0.267	0.276	0.093	36.6%	6.8%	23.7%	56.1%	OF	$2,200	OF	$3,200	CF	$6,800
9	Bradley Zimmer	LEFT	0.294	0.299	0.146	36.8%	8.2%	33.3%	45.2%	OF	$2,100	OF	$3,000	CF	$5,900

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

The Twins draw the worst matchup on the board. In addition to an elite strikeout rate, Corey Kluber has held both left and right-handed hitters under a .270 xwOBA since the beginning of last season. The current Twins’ roster has a .263 wOBA with 70 strikeouts in 217 plate appearances against Kluber. Joe Mauer is the one hitter with good numbers against Kluber in his career, but there’s exactly a zero percent chance that he’ll find his way into my lineups.

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

#	Player	Bats	wOBA	xwOBA	ISO	HC%	BB%	K%	GB%	FD Pos.	FD Sal.	DK Pos.	DK Sal.	FDRFT Pos.	FDRFT Sal.
1	Brian Dozier	RIGHT	0.345	0.333	0.213	32.9%	10.7%	19.8%	38.5%	2B	$4,000	2B	$4,700	2B	$8,700
2	Joe Mauer	LEFT	0.362	0.405	0.128	41.0%	12.6%	13.6%	48.9%	1B	$3,000	1B	$3,000	1B	$5,500
3	Miguel Sano	RIGHT	0.350	0.348	0.231	45.5%	10.7%	38.2%	39.6%	3B	$3,700	3B	$4,200	IF/OF	$8,100
4	Eddie Rosario	LEFT	0.371	0.351	0.263	33.5%	7.5%	17.6%	38.5%	OF	$2,900	OF	$2,900	LF	$5,900
5	Logan Morrison	LEFT	0.358	0.376	0.279	38.8%	13.3%	24.9%	33.3%	1B	$2,200	1B	$3,000	1B	$5,400
6	Eduardo Escobar	SWITCH	0.330	0.335	0.222	35.2%	5.9%	21.5%	32.1%	SS	$3,200	SS	$3,000	SS	$5,400
7	Max Kepler	LEFT	0.355	0.333	0.221	36.7%	9.8%	16.7%	40.7%	OF	$2,500	OF	$3,000	RF	$5,800
8	Byron Buxton	RIGHT	0.291	0.276	0.156	27.3%	5.8%	30.7%	41.3%	OF	$2,500	OF	$2,900	CF	$5,800
9	Jason Castro	LEFT	0.309	0.322	0.147	34.0%	12.4%	29.3%	41.1%	C	$2,200	C	$2,900	C	$5,500

MLB Grind Down: Tuesday, April 17th

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Stackability Rating System:

Implied Run Totals

Ballpark Ratings

Kansas City at Toronto – 3:07 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Kansas City

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Whit Merrifield

Stackability – ORANGE

Toronto

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Steve Pearce, Teoscar Hernandez, Justin Smoak, Russell Martin

Secondary Plays – Yangervis Solarte, Kevin Pillar, Aledmys Diaz, Devon Travis

Stackability – GREEN

Miami at NY Yankees – 6:35 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Miami

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Justin Bour (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Justin Bour (Cash)

Stackability – ORANGE

NY Yankees

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gary Sanchez

Secondary Plays – Brett Gardner, Didi Gregorius, Neil Walker, Tyler Austin

Stackability – GREEN

Baltimore at Detroit – 6:40 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Baltimore

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. LH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Manny Machado, Adam Jones, Danny Valencia

Secondary Plays – Trey Mancini, Craig Gentry, Tim Beckham

Stackability – YELLOW / GREEN

Detroit

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Nick Castellanos

Stackability – ORANGE

Colorado at Pittsburgh – 7:05 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Colorado

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Chris Iannetta, Charlie Blackmon

Stackability – ORANGE

Pittsburgh

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Adam Frazier, Gregory Polanco, Starling Marte, Josh Bell, Colin Moran

Stackability – ORANGE / YELLOW

Cleveland at Minnesota (Puerto Rico) – 7:10 PM ET

Pitcher Grind Down

Batter Grind Down

Cleveland

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – Edwin Encarnacion

Secondary Plays – Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez, Michael Brantley

Stackability – YELLOW

Minnesota

Projected Lineup (Splits vs. RH Pitching)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – None

Stackability – RED

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